Gonzo Gonzalo and Cyclone Up, Vortex Down

I was exploring the fascinating visuals at nullschool.   Being the sort I am, I looked at, and saved, a full series of each hP step (roughly millibars) from surface, to 1000, to 850, then 700 and 500 and 250 and 70 and 10…  for each of temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and currents in the ocean with temperatures and on…

You can see it here live:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-104.74,48.09,251

Now I’d started because I wanted to see what a Hurricane looked like.  Especially how the winds around it sucked up all the surface heat.    You can see Gonzalo off to the lower right, about over Bermuda.

N. Hemisphere wind with Gonzalo

N. Hemisphere wind with Gonzalo

So that’s what I set out to do.  Look at the little wound up spot off the coast of Florida.   But what I noticed was those three much larger low pressure rotation zones up near the North edge of the oceans.    While rotating slower (so not in the news as a hurricane), they are sucking up way more total mass of air, and cooling far more ocean surface.    Also (it is easier to see in the live animation than this static picture, but look for the fatter ends on the wind lines to show direction of rotation):  The N. Polar vortex is visible in the middle of it all, rotating the other way.  (That matters… as it indicates heat up / cold down and out)

Now a polar vortex has descending cold air, thinks I…  and cyclones have rising hot air.   In between?   Wait a minute, I think:   We’ve got cyclones up and vortex down.   It’s a giant heat engine sucking the heat out of the surface, dumping it up high, and then shoving the frigid air back down again.  (Yes, it compression heats on the way back down, but only to about -15 C which nullshool shows you if you click on a spot on the surface in an animation).   So it can be -50 C or so at altitude, and heats up to damn cold at the surface.

Similarly, those surface cyclones are whipping up the ocean surface, mixing cold water to the surface, evaporating tons of water, lofting it to altitude where it condenses (and freezes) and falls as cold rain, hail, and snow.   Moving massive amounts of heat to above the troposphere.  You can even see the cold polar air mass drifting down over Canada and the USA bringing us a nice cold winter… in fall…

Note that nowhere in this story is radiative physics involved in the troposphere.  The only place IR radiation is doing anything at all is in the stratosphere.  And there, CO2 is a cooling agent, radiating heat to space.

That, in a nutshell, is the problem with the AGW Global Warming theory.  It ignores all those giant cyclones, polar vortex, clouds, rain, snow, hail, ocean surface churning and cold water mixing.   All the dynamic ‘hard bits’ are ignored in favor of a ‘one size fits all’ infrared model.   So how much infrared warms you in a snow storm?  A hail storm?  During a downpour of rain?  At the pole with a frozen stratospheric funnel draining onto your head?   It just is not in the picture.

Speaking of which, some more pictures:

Gonzalo and Surface Temperatures

Gonzalo and Surface Temperatures

What fascinated me about this one was that Gonzalo did not show much surface cooling.  We know it happens by a degree or two, but not visible in this data.   Yet those larger cyclones are sitting right at the hot / cold interface and moving mass back and forth between them.  Picking up heat on the hot side, dumping it on the cold side.  (If you look at altitude slices, you can see the loft / descent happening too).

Gonzalo temp at 500 hP altitude with polar cold

Gonzalo temp at 500 hP altitude with polar cold

Half way up the atmosphere, things are colder, but the structure remains.  Cyclones up, vortex down, and warmer to colder bridging by those cyclones.   Gonzalo now barely shows up a at all.  As big as hurricanes are, they are small fry compared to major lows.

Gonzalo temps and the Stratosphere at 70 hP

Gonzalo temps and the Stratosphere at 70 hP

By the time we are at 70 hP (or mb) we are well into the stratosphere.  At this level, it is all cold polar vortex.   The intermediate layers (worth looking at, but a bit much to put in one posting) show the transition, and some of the changing directions and flow).   So here we have all the lofted air, radiating like mad to space, becoming incredibly cold, then going down the plug hole to the pole.    Notice that you can’t see the surface artifacts at all ( no cyclones, no surface IR making hot spots…)

Gonzalo wave and wind map with N. Atlantic Cyclone

Gonzalo wave and wind map with N. Atlantic Cyclone

Gonzalo is clearly a big deal, with 42 foot waves and low pressures.   But look at the low in the upper right.  30 foot waves.   And active over a much larger area.  What does all that do?  Maybe suck the heat right out?

SST Anomaly Ganzalo and N. Hemisphere Cyclones

SST Anomaly Ganzalo and N. Hemisphere Cyclones

Notice how those cold spots are very nearly under those large heat sucking cyclones.   Gonzalo not so much.  (Then again, getting data through a hurricane might be a bit hard

;-)

So that’s the thesis for this posting.   It isn’t at all about radiative physics.  The troposphere is all about circular air flows.  Cyclones up and vortex down.   All the radiation happens in the Stratosphere and above.   Now ask yourself:  With a sleepy sun putting out dramatically lower UV; so low that the thermosphere has shrunk and cooled, think maybe, just maybe that stratosphere ‘looking up’ has an easier time getting to space than back when the thermosphere was piping hot?   IMHO, that’s what the Warmers have missed. That their physics of radiation approach matters to the Stratopause, but not to the Tropopause.

http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2012/12/12/tropopause-rules/

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Posted in AGW and Weather News Events, AGW Science and Background, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , | 19 Comments

The Exponential of Ebola Rolls On

There’s an interesting BBC article with some decent graphics in it here:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-28755033

The basic problem is in the graph of the growth of Ebola over time.  They have it by country, and in total.   THE major issue is a simple one.   All the curves continue to be upward sloping.    The exponential continues.   Until one of them (preferably the total as well) rolls over to flatten and then downward, we have a completely out of control and expanding plague.    Quarantine is NOT a ‘dirty word’.   It is a crude but effective tool to stop planting new weed patches and new sources of trouble in areas that are healthy refuges.  Places from which a response can be raised.   First, wall off the ‘bad thing’ (be it a virus, chemical contamination, nuclear contamination, whatever), then from your secure and clean base, provide a load of corrective / curative effort into the (now limited) area of involvement.

Continuing to haul thousands of folks all over the planet from infected areas is insanity.   Yes, IMHO, that includes Dallas now too.

Growth of Ebola

Growth of Ebola to date 14 Oct 2014

In the article they point out two very important things:

1) The counts are likely to be low. Perhaps as much as 50% low.
2) That sudden turn up at the end for Sierra Leone was due to a review of hospital records.

That curve is what we are ‘up against’. It will get a lot worse before it gets better.

http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2014/10/13/doubling-time-and-the-future/

In earlier postings I’d pointed to some positive news.

http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2014/10/03/potential-ebola-cure-hiv-anti-viral-drug/

A CNN report on a retro-viral that looked to be curative. Other folks posted links that also pointed to potential “good things”. One was to an article on using massive intravenous Vitamin C (as the sodium salt) that had very good antiviral impact. Another was about Selenium, and that showed a very interesting thing. The symptoms of severe selenium deficiency include things, like hemorrhage, that are signatures of Ebola. And… The Ebola genome codes for sequences that would use a lot of the host selenium. The virus may be sucking up your selenium as a way of making you weak / sick. Large doses of Selenium would prevent that sequence. There was also some evidence for using nano particle silver as a virus killer. There was also a link to a Chinese drug with promise.

So, as a bare minimum, I’d propose the following:

1) Land a mobile CBW hospital with complete hazmat gear in Africa. Use THAT as the place to treat, and quarantine, any health care workers and missionaries and such that get Ebola while working there. Do not take them off the continent until 30 days after recovery from infection, or 30 days after last exposure to infection in others.

2) Put the quarantine outer border outside the known exposed areas. (At present, cases are known from outside the presently closed boarders. See the map in the article at BBC.) Folks can go in, but nobody comes out. Set up a 30 day quarantine facility at the border. Folks can enter it from the sick area, and if healthy 30 days later, can exit to the healthy side. IF that facility has a case of Ebola, everybody has a reset on their quarantine time. Yes, it’s a ‘lock box’ for limiting who gets out and that they have proven to not have the disease (i.e. incubation has passed).

3) Start trials of each proposed treatment. There are plenty of desperate patients who would benefit from anything, even just a bit of hope. Also try combinations. (So selenium with anti-virals for example). As soon as something is shown to work, use it in a whole country (if enough drug is available). As soon as something is shown to work really really well, use it everywhere.

4) Since a load of the cases are health care workers, drop the hubris that we have a clue just what this virus can, and can not, do. At least one variation (Reston) has evidence for limited airborne spread. With 10,000 to 20,000 infected, the mutation rate will be creating new sub-types right now. What it was, is not what it now is, and what it will be. Expect to be surprised. So health care workers ought to be assigned to the treatment of Ebola cases in the smallest number possible. Those folks get a room in the hospital and stay 24 x 7 (also pay them 24 x 7 for the duration). They leave when the outbreak ends, and go into 30 day quarantine then. Paid. Nobody who works an Ebola ward travels. (Use video conferencing if you need to ‘attend’ a meeting…)

Until those growth curves flatten, we are demonstrably clueless and doing the wrong things.

Now, with one case in Dallas leading to 2 nurses sick, and with a couple of weeks left in the incubation period for the other healthcare workers, and with unknown 100s of folks exposed to the nurses; the USA is also on that exponential growth curve. Yes, we are down at the toe of it, but on it we are. It will be 20 days before we know how far on it we go. That’s about November 6 or so. We can make no statement at all about how many Ebola cases are in the USA until then. Only if we get no more at all can we then say how many there are… Until that time, we must assume we are on that exponential curve and act accordingly.

We know the ‘protective measures’ didn’t work for those nurses. We know that exposures have happened. We know that cases have doubled. We know that we don’t know how to stop it. Yet.

So the right thing to do is to act as aggressively as possible. Assume the worst and assume you do not know how to prevent spread nor treat the disease. So far that looks to be accurate.

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Posted in Uncategorized | 38 Comments

The inconvenient snows

This article lists some inconvenient weather:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/10/13/fall-snow-bonanza-in-north-america-and-siberia-may-portend-brutal-winter/

Fall snow bonanza in North America and Siberia may portend brutal winter

By Jason Samenow
October 13 at 2:16 pm

In North America, September was the snowiest on record dating to the late 1960s. And in Siberia, the snow is going gangbusters so far this October. Some scientists suggest all of this snow so early in the year may be a harbinger of a rough winter for the U.S. and Europe.

Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER), a unit of Verisk Climate, believes the North American snow tilts the odds towards a cold winter. “I would consider it at least a cold bias for this upcoming winter,” he said. “I remember that North American snow cover extent got off to a fast start in 2000 and that did portend a cold winter.”

Snow fell early in North America, including in places that rarely see it in September.

“[C]learly the [Canadian Arctic] Archipelago caught snow earlier than usual,” said David Robinson, New Jersey state climatologist who maintains a dataset for snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere. “Some snow on the mainland tundra of Canada and Alaska too, up into the Brooks Range and northern Rockies. That amazing Calgary snow event shows up.”

The article goes on with a snow anomaly map and more.

So from Siberia to the USA is record snow, the Antarctic is record ice, and we are to believe record hot “EVER!” per the cooked climate data? To quote “Riiight….”

Siberia snow “off to the races”

While the link between North America snow cover early in the fall and conditions in the forthcoming winter may be considered speculative, studies have documented a more solid connection between October Siberian snow cover and the coming cold season.

The studies show that when Siberian snow cover extent is prosperous and increases rapidly in October, it provides a strong signal that a weather pattern known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) will tend towards its negative phase during the winter months (December through March).
[...]

He added: “Normally on this date there is about 1 million squared kilometers of snow cover south of 60°N across Eurasia and instead this year there is 5 million.”

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Posted in AGW and Weather News Events | Tagged , , , | 17 Comments

Doubling Time and the Future

This is a simple posting about what the doubling time of a virus means for our future expectations.

We can expect a 3 week or so doubling of cases of Ebola until such time as we gain control of the spread or develop an effective cure. That may take a while. So what happens until that point? How much worry and how much time?

So lets just list a set of “doubles” and realize that it is about 3 weeks between each set. We had our first (not flown in by a medical air ambulance) patient in Dallas. Now a couple of weeks later, our first home grown transmission (to his nurse, despite medical protective gear). So that is our first “double”, from 1 to 2.

2  4  8  16  32  64  128  256  512  1K  (that '1k' is about 1000)

In weeks, that’s roughly 3 x 9 or 27. Call it about 1/2 a year. Just a while ago, Africa hit the 1000 patient mark, so we ought to expect that this all started about 1/2 a year ago. (Someone can test that if they like by looking up the index case and seeing how good the fit might be.) Now what happened after that 1000? Doubling continued. That same row can be repeated as 1000’s if desired.

2  4  8  16  32  64  128  256  512  1000x1000 (or One Million).

Now last news I heard had Africa at 4000 dead (and about 8000 infected). That puts them at about 3 x 12 weeks, or about 9 months into it. That is where we ought to be about next July… But where will THEY be by then? A whole lot worse. Now we can repeat that doubling as millions.

2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1000 Million (that Americans call Billions, and Brits don’t ;-)

OK, so the world ought to be about 12 steps on by then (next July). Counting from 8k now, we get about 32 Million. Doubling Time is a bitch…

For the USA, how long to that 256 (that is nearly the entire population)? As we are already at 2, counting forward is 9 to the end of the first line, then 10 on the next line, then another 8 on the last line. 27 x 3 weeks, or about 81 weeks. Call it 20 months, give or take, until everyone in the country is either exposed, sick, or dead. That is ALL the time you have to find ways to stop the transmission. One year, 8 months. With a wall around the country and no new imports.

Now the world as a whole is already at 8,000 so how long to, oh, 8 Billion? It is a 17 count to 1 Billion, then you repeat the line of doublings as Billions, and get another 3, So 20 x 3 weeks or 60 weeks. Call it about 15 months. One and 1/4 years. Tops.

Do I think that will happen? No.

Long before then folks will start stopping this disease. If not by modern medicine, by good old fashioned quarantines (that were used since they worked… without modern medicine). At some point air travel shuts down and lots of folks shelter in place and figure they will deal with the side effects of not going to work after they find out who is still alive….

But this exercise DOES put an upper bound on how long this can go without a fix. February of 2016, we run out of world to infect. This event will be measured in months, not years. That is the tyrany of doubling time. (Or exponential growth).

Again, though, I have to point out that before that actualy happens, the S curve nature of real growth will bite. We will run out of pilots willing to fly to infected places. We will run out of folks willing to congregate in airports (or factories, or…) and things will stop; even without a cure, fix, or change of “medical protocol”.

Me? I don’t plan to do anything different until we hit about 1000 patients in the USA. That’s about 1/2 a year out. Call it April 15, 2015 or so. A fitting date… That has odds of about 300,000 : 1 on me being too late, and those are OK odds with me. At that point, I cash a chunk of the 401K, buy an RV and a couple of acres out in the boonies, and pack my water purification kit, a load of bleach, and food; and go camping for a year or so…

I don’t expect that to happen, BTW. But it is nice to know when to start taking it seriously. IFF this isn’t ramping down / being quenched, by then, well…. That also lets you know how to evaluate the response of the WHO, CDC, and others. They have 6 months to get their shit together before the shit has hit the fan and you can’t get in front of it. That isn’t a lot of time. I hope they know how to figure doublings…

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Posted in Emergency Preparation and Risks, News Related | Tagged , , | 22 Comments

Interesting Ecat report

http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/191754-cold-fusion-reactor-verified-by-third-party-researchers-seems-to-have-1-million-times-the-energy-density-of-gasoline

has a link to the pdf of the report. Looks promissing. COP > 3 For over 30 days running.

according to a new 54-page report. The researchers observed a small E-Cat over 32 days, where it produced net energy of 1.5 megawatt-hours, or “far more than can be obtained from any known chemical sources in the small reactor volume.” The researchers were also allowed to analyze the fuel before and after the 32-day run, noting that the isotopes in the spent fuel could only have been obtained by “nuclear reactions” — a conclusion that boggles the researchers: “… It is of course very hard to comprehend how these fusion processes can take place in the fuel compound at low energies.”

hard to fake a megawatt…

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Posted in Energy | Tagged , , | 70 Comments