Will The Real Guam Please Stand Up

From The Pacific Basin Canonical Graphs Posting

Guam, Guam, and Guam Plus – All different

This is the Agana WSMO Station at 13.55 N 144.83 E that gets the “country code” 529:

Guam Hair Graph

Guam Hair Graph

This is the OTHER Agana station, the NWSO at 13.48 N 144.80 E that is in CCode 535:

Agana NWSO Hair Graph

Agana NWSO Hair Graph

Now look at those two Agana Stations for just a moment. Gee, different….

And the rest of “North Mariana Islands” (which as near as I can tell is “Anderson AFB” on Guam) that makes up the rest of Country Code 535 included with “the other Agana”:

Northern Mariana Islands Hair Graph

Northern Mariana Islands Hair Graph

These are the Same?

Now realize that these stations are about as perfectly matched by location as you could want. Small island in the middle of a vast ocean. Essentially perfect match of “climate”. And we get this much divergence in the graphs? So how much divergence would there be if these were actually different places?

Somehow I don’t think we can trust the Global Average Temperature to the 1/10 C place when we can’t even measure the same place to within 1 C. In particular, notice that 1971 – 1972 are about 1.5 C divergent between the two “Agana”s.

As GISS sees them

These are the “as combined” from the NASA GISS web site for GIStemp:

Agana WSMO as Combined 529

The “Other Agana”:

NWSO Agana 535

And Anderson AFB:

Anderson AFB

Anderson AFB

None of these make it through the whole “Homogenizing” process, and are all dropped on the floor at some point. Why? “Why, don’t ask why, down that path lies insanity and ruin. -E.M.Smith” But “why” is probably from lack of sufficient nearby reference stations or for segments being less than 20 years in length or perhaps for “too little overlap” with each other (or some combination of those things).

So I don’t know if I ought to be cranky that they can’t measure one rock in the middle of the ocean consistently or glad that they don’t use it. I think I just settle for perplexed at how the whole thing goes “Bop when it stops!” … -E.M.Smith }

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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7 Responses to Will The Real Guam Please Stand Up

  1. bushy says:

    I would like to do a story on this with quoting and graphs if that is ok.

    REPLY: [ What would be the nature of the story? If "Pro - AGW", I'm not inclined... if "The data are not consistent with CO2" I'm all for it. -E.M.Smith ]

  2. vjones says:

    Interesting that they’ve dropped Guam from the adjusted set. All three stations were there in November 2009 and WMSO Agana survived to January 2010.

    Actually I had been working on a post on that: NWSO Agana is at the main international airport and is much warmer. WMSO Agana is reasonably close by but was truely rural, although Google now shows housing in the area.

    The real shocker was that WMSO Agana was shut down in 1998 (as the urban area encroached?) http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwDI~StnSrch~StnID~20030349.

    The data from 1998-2004 seems to be a product of FILNET couresty of the nearby NWSO Agana.

  3. wolfwalker says:

    Chiefio, you made a small error in your coordinates. Guam is East longitude, not West.

    If you change from West to East longitude, and convert from decimal to a proper degree-minutes-seconds format for lat-long coordinates, the two positions you gave match up fairly well with Guam’s two major airfields. 13.55 N 144.83 E is Anderson Air Force Base near the island’s northeast coast. 13.48 N 144.80 E is Guam International Airport, about five miles east of Agana town and at least a couple of miles inland. There is no significant difference in altitude between the two locations.

    “North Marianas Islands” is the general name for .. well, the Northern Marianas Islands, basically all the Marianas chain except for Guam. Technically, Guam is a United States territory while the Northern Marianas are “a commonwealth in political union with the United States.” I’m not sure exactly what the difference is.

    REPLY: [ Fixed, thanks! I was just posting this in the dead of night and had one of those "everything thataway from me is W" thoughts run in and forgot about that 180 line down the middle ;-) In the southern half I'm self prompted by New Zealand, but for the northern half it looks like I don't have a trigger point... Ah, looking at the globe Midway would do... So I just need to 'set the bit' that anything past Midway is "the other side" and check it...

    Oddly, despite the political demarcations, all three thermometer records look to be from Guam...
    -E.M.Smith ]

  4. A C Osborn says:

    “Somehow I don’t think we can trust the Global Average Temperature to the 1/10 C place when we can’t even measure the same place to within 1 C. In particular, notice that 1971 – 1972 are about 1.5 C divergent between the two “Agana”s.”

    From V Jones comment, this looks like a classic case of UHI Vs Rural.

    REPLY: [ I'd expect so. But "why" isn't the issue. Given that GIStemp gets the UHI "correction" wrong a lot of the time... The simple fact that the data are so sporadic makes the answer dodgy. For example looking at the "metadata" for the "two Aganas" we get:

    52991217000 WSMO AGANA, G 13.55 144.83 111 31R -9HIxxCO 3A-9WATER C
    53591212000 NWSO AGANA, G 13.48 144.80 82 2R -9HIxxCO 3A-9WATER C

    Notice that both of them have an "R" Rural flag just before the "-9HxxCO" that says "No Population" (that -9). But surely the Anderson AFB will be classed as an urban heat island what with it's highly warming profile over time and loads of change from "Grass shack" era to "Jets and Tarmac" era, right?

    53591218000 ANDERSEN AFB, 13.57 144.92 162 23R -9HIxxCO 3A-9WATER C

    Nope. It gets a Rural "R" and a 'no population" "-9" as well....

    So you are correct. But we still have massive variation in "rural" stations in the same place...

    -E.M.Smith ]

  5. docmartyn says:

    When did they extend the airfield to support the B-52′s and their tankers, why during the Vietnam war. It went from a little B-29 strip into 2 x 4 Km long runways, with a looped taxiway and a central strip with hardpoints for about 100 B-52. The two 1960′s runways DWARF the pair of original runways, which are still there.
    They did have to cut down the virgin rainforest to do it, but that couldn’t affect the temperature.

  6. Rod Smith says:

    docmartyn: I dont know for sure, but the northernmost runway is obviously no longer in operation. (Take a close-up look in Google Earth. It was always long enough for B52′s at about 12,000 feet in the mid 50′s, but was very, very dangerous. This because the the takeoff run (W-E) was always uphill, and the heat didn’t help. (Check the elevations in Google earth.) I have no memory of ever taking off the other direction; the wind was always easterly and usually light.

    I remember almost hitting the ocean in an overloaded (by 40-50,000 lbs) RB-36H take off. We had to apply war-emergency three, (full boost) and were, according to the engineer, pulling 95 inches of manifold pressure! (Normal TO was around 60 in.) We dropped off paddy’s point like a rock and in a cloud of black (rich fuel mixture) smoke and before we could get the gear up, the left canoe door (inner gear door about 10×20 feet) fell off into the water disabling the up-lock in the process.

    Visually, it is extremely difficult to judge your height off off water – at say a hundred feet and without some visual reference point, it looks as if you could almost reach out and scoop up water. It WAS exciting until we staggered up a bit!

  7. Rod Smith says:

    I have 4 stations from the Island of Guam in the NCDC ISH documentation.
    First Line: USAF#,WMO Blk Stn(5)+aux Nbr(1), Name, FIPS
    Second Line: ICAO, Lat, Lon, Elev(.1 meter)

    912120 41415 GUAM WFO GQ
    PGUM 1348 14480 0774
    912120 99999 GUAM MARIANA IS/AGANA FLO FWC CQ
    13483 144800 853
    912150 99999 GUAM MARIANA IS/ANDERSEN AFB CQ
    13583 144917 1932
    912170 99999 GUAM MARIANA IS GQ
    PGAC 1355 144833 1110
    912180 99999 ANDERSEN AFB GQ
    PGUA 13567 144917 1620

    I have no idea what the difference in fips designations means. I suspect the C means COOP, but that is a WAG. On the 2008 surface Temps DVD I see reports from only the Intl Airport and Anderson.

    I feel certain that the FWC refers to the Fleet Weather Center. The old Navy airstrip at the NE corner of the Island looks to be abandoned and not near the FWC in the list.

    This doesn’t seem to be much help, but here really shouldn’t be and mystery in this at all! Maybe we need to start taking names at NCDC.

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