Global Warming Originated in Africa!
I have discovered the earliest “hockey sticks” to date in the data from North Africa. While I still have the middle of Africa to complete, the evidence is quite clear:
Global Warming originated in Africa and is spreading to the rest of the world.
Speed Can Be Calculated
As this is “breaking news” the speed at this time is just an estimate, but a highly precise one. Global Warming spreads at about 100 miles per year over land. The charts and data will be presented below to support this estimate. One very important note: It travels poorly over water. The exact mode of contagion to places like Australia and New Zealand is not clear. It may be that some as yet un-identified tropical vector can carry this infection. Or it might be vacation habits and carting home musty African trinkets.
By inspecting the charts for the North African countries, a rough estimate is that Global Warming has spread from Morocco to Egypt at about 100 miles per year. From there, it looks as though it traveled through Israel to Greece and eventually reached Italy. The earlier onset in Great Britain as compared to Italy may indicate some sea born transmission, though the mode is again very unclear; as the water of the Mediterranean blocked water born transmission to Italy. Perhaps that British penchant for carting off artifacts for the British Museum?
These graphs are all made from the GHCN data set, some of the finest data that NOAA / NCDC could assemble. It’s quality is beyond comparison. Way beyond.
I have applied the dT/dt Monthly Anomaly Processing to it, producing accurate graphs of the change of temperatures over time in each country. As no “fill-in” or “interpolation” or “homogenizing” is done in this process, we were able, for the first time ever, to see the spreading of Global Warming without such confounding factors.
As we look at each graph, there will be in evidence a “pivot point” where a basically flat, or often falling, temperature profile suddenly pitches upward into a runaway fever. A “Tipping Point”. What is truly startling, however, is that this date slowly progresses across the top of Africa, through the Middle East, and into Southern Europe. The “Tipping Point” clearly indicates when the Global Warming Infection arrives in each country.
With that said, here are the countries in order, starting at Morocco and working our way counter clockwise around the Mediterranean. Some countries may be skipped for brevity or, as in the case of Libya, simply because I forgot to make the report for them. (Who thinks about Libya anymore anyway. They are running out of oil, so what use are they? Heck, they don’t even blow things up anymore…) I hope to have an update as time permits.
All of these graphs are fairly large. You can click on them for a better close up view.
Here in Morocco, we have “onset” in 1972, way ahead of the rest of the world!
By 1978 or 1979 it has reached Algeria. (Unfortunately, the size of the country prevents accurate calculation of spreading rate from just the two data points, but we will be able to use the longer “baseline” of Egypt a bit later).
Tunisia is a bit hard to tell. It has clearly “caught it” by 1981 or so, but there are hints of a rise as early as 1976. Then again, it’s hardly any different from Algeria anyway. Heck, just look at a globe. It’s got Algeria to the West and the South of it. Ought to just make it a department of Algeria. But at any rate, the real steep “onset” is a bit lagged from the rest of Algeria.
To be added later. If I remember them.
Egypt is at it’s bottom about 1984, then it’s just a “mummy on fire” run up. I make that about 2200 miles in about 22 years, or roughly 100 Miles Per Year. This was calculated from staring at my 9 inch Replogle World Globe, but I stared at it 1000 times so the precision could be calculated to 3 decimal places thanks to the law of large numbers and the mean central limit theory (or some nasty limited theory of averaging lots of lousy things to make perfect precision from them)..
Now, I don’t want to accuse anyone of revisionist history, especially anyone who was Chosen By God Almighty, but the Israel data begins in 1862. While I’m pretty sure Israel was created in the 1940s. Rather than make a big fuss about this, I’m willing to just put it down to Divine Intervention. Lord knows the NOAA / NCDC could not have just made something up.
While the low point of the Israel data comes about 1985, this could just be an artifact of the general downtrend that was in place. Clearly by about 1992 the trend has become a Stairway to Heaven.
Syria gets a “Pivot” about 1992 / 1993 as well, and without the ambiguous lead in. A bit of a fast spread from Israel, but then again only Lebanon is in between them and Lebanon hasn’t been a real country for a few decades now. Just a rest stop for armies and spies as they travel between Israel and the Arab world. But hey, it’s a living and somebody has to do it.
Greece is another one of those slightly ambiguous cases. It stops dropping in about 1983, but does not really ‘take off’ until about 1995. My conclusion is that the islands prevented a rapid spread, but that a minor early infection might have begun from “Certain Greek Practices” involving visits to North Africa by sailors. At any rate, after a slow start, Greece is clearly “catching it” by 1995.
We see in this chart that Italy did not “catch it” until 1999 to 2000. Clearly it is spreading and taking a primarily (though not exclusively) land route.
Oddly, Italy looks like it may have suffered a similar illness for most of the 1800′s. That could explain a lot about Italy… The Fever seems to have broken in the late 1930′s and a fit of “chills” is evidenced. One hopes that the “cure” that gave Italy the “chills” in the late 1930′s is not worse than the disease… This raises the hope of a “cure”, but the specter that this might be a cyclical tropical disease with alternating fevers and chills. At the earliest opportunity I would like to conduct extensive research on the Italian History or that era focusing on medicinal value of foods and beverages in common usage then, starting in a small Villa in Tuscany… To that end, a small grant for a few millions Euros from the UN will be greatly appreciated. The world hangs in the balance and we have no time to delay! Action must be taken now!
As we saw earlier, Gibraltar has not yet caught Global Warming. Now we know why, being isolated by water AGW had to go the long way around the Mediterranean; and now we know that it is only a matter of time…
Interesting to note, South Africa has not yet caught Global Warming either. It is unclear at this time if there simply has not been enough time, at 100 M/Yr, for Global Warming to have reached them (as we don’t know the exact epicenter of this epidemic) or if, perhaps, the Sahara has a sterilizing effect on this disease. Only time will tell.
Clearly this new information invalidates the CO2 thesis, as CO2 is not contagious and does not have an Out Of Africa root. The causal agent of Global Warming must now be addressed with the utmost urgency. Gaia has caught some kind of African Fever. Finding an antidote, antibiotic, or other suitable treatment must be pushed forward with all possible haste. We in the USA simply MUST devote all the resources of our new Medical Care System to treating Gaia as we are all children of Mother Earth and we must do what is clearly right “for the children”!
OK, it’s now after midnight and a new, non-April First, day.
While I hope folks enjoyed the fun, there is a slightly serious side to all of this. Those graphs are real. I did not doctor the data in any way. There is a small degree of “decision” involved in when to divide the data series between the “shaft” and the “blade” of the hockey stick, but that’s clear when you look at the charts (and I’ve described the ambiguities in the text). So it really is the case that the “Pivot” data does, in fact, come very early in Morocco and very late in Italy.
IMHO it is an artifact of human decisions about when to institute a change of processing of the data series; the “onset” of a new “Duplicate number” or a new thermometer count. Someone had a job, to ‘roll out the new stuff”, and just did it. Not thinking about “foot prints in the snow” nor about “was the job propagating an error in some way?”. So they most likely just started at a convenient point on the African Coast, Morocco, and started moving a pin around the map as they worked through the data series from a country; then moved onto the next one. The “old” duplicate number being for the “historical record” and the new duplicate number indicating the ongoing automated update process with automated rule based “QA” (that may have an unintended consequence…).
So take just a moment to look at those graphs again, and realize that is the real deal; then ask which is more plausible: “CO2 did it slowly accumulating over 100+ years of industrial revolution.” or “It’s an artifact of the data gathering and splicing process”.