A very interesting presentation. Based on prior patterns of solar magnetic field, the predictions are that this Solar Cycle Maximum will come between 2013 and 2014, will be about 40 to 60 sunspot number, and then we will enter a Grand Minimum until perhaps as late as 2100 AD.
I’m not so good at Dutch, so here’s a Google Translation with some cleanup:
In de Volkskrant and NRC Wednesday, June 15 (and perhaps even more newspapers) there was an article derived from a U.S. press release, the sun will have about a ten year period of prolonged inactivity, we will have little or no sunspots to see, nor solar flares, explosions …. In the NRC, this appears as a new discovery and has failed to report that this expectation has been published for several years before in the scientific literature by De Jager and Duhau. See page so the Sun-Earth publications of this website.
In early 2011 started, at last, after three years of silence, the new 11-year solar cycle number 24. This happened some years later than expected under the ‘normal’ behavior of solar cycles. Based on the measured magnetic field at the poles several years ago we could predict that cycle 24 will be weak, weaker than we had experienced the last century. We also reported that two large magnetic fields of the Sun in 2009, the sun’s activity, had passed the Transition Point in the phase diagram, which means that a new episode of major change of the sun’s activity has come. The previous passage was in 1924 and was the exceptional Grand Maximum of the 20th century. The new episode is a deep minimum. It will look similar to the Maunder Minimum, which lasted from 1620 to 1720. (The NRC is the beginning year 1645 but said that based on outdated and inaccurate information). This new Grand Minimum will last until approximately 2100.
(I was pointed at this site by R. De Haan http://chiefio.wordpress.com/tips/#comment-19701 At any rate, I finally got time to watch it, so “H/T to R. de Haan”. It is a very nice presentation. IMHO, attributes a bit too much to water feedback as a GHG, not enough to volcanic linking, but that some “feedback” or “multiplier” is needed seems clear, and as long as it IS linked, knowing exactly which one is not as important as know that one does exist and has about that magnitude. You still get the same result. Headed to colder.)
This is now a third major scientist, from a third line of evidence, all ending up at the same conclusion. This one from solar magnetic history. One based on a Fourier Transform analysis of past solar cycles. And Habibullo Ismailovich Abdussamatov based on observations of changes of the solar size (the diameter changes slightly with activity).
IMHO “Third Times The Charm”…
With this much all stacking up the same way, the present “cold winter” aint nothin’ yet. We’re only 1/2 way into the Major Minimum and still have about a dozen years of “dropping” to go. At that point, we’re one large volcano away from The Year Without A Summer.