Santa’s Aurora And Ozone Report

Well, it’s that time of year again, with lots of kids the world over eagerly awaiting the arrival of Santa Clause.

All sorts of folks give Santa Weather Reports, and even NORAD gets involved with a radar track of Santa and his sleigh.

Well, I was reminded about my skepticism that the ozone level varied with CFC gasses by a comment in another thread, and thought “maybe it would be interesting to do a Santa Clause Ozone Report, and with it a report on where the Aurora can be seen (perhaps where one could find an Aurora Illuminated Santa as well!)

The aurora have a seasonal variation. Strongest at the equinoxes, weakest at the solstices. (An interesting point to ponder, that one… One could spend a while wondering why both ozone and the Aurora have a cycle around springtime… )

http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/31/68/93/PDF/angeo-19-1001-2001.pdf

The annual variation of auroral activity has been shown to exhibit maxima at the equinoxes and minima at the solstices.

So this being a Winter Solstice, we can expect fairly low Auroral Activity. Santa will not be dodging too many glowing particles this flight, and our ‘seeing’ against a shimmering backdrop will likely be limited. Guess it’s over to NORAD and their radar!

What does the Ozone look like?

Ozone Concentration 23 December 2011

Ozone Concentration 23 December 2011

Low levels of ozone at the equator, one modest spot of higher levels over Alaska. Not too bad! Now that was yesterday, how much does it change from day to day? Well, here is the day before:

Ozone Concentration 22 Dec 2011

Ozone Concentration 22 Dec 2011

We can see that local concentrations can change a lot, from day to day, but that large patterns (like that high level over North America) can be somewhat persistent over time. Looks like Santa may want to “Fly Low” over Canada and sneak in below the Ozone! Other than that, and a small arc on the edge of Alaska, it looks like low ozone flying over most all of the globe!

A ‘wag’ might point out that the pattern of ‘bright red eyes’ looks rather like the landing spots made by a Birkeland Current; but Official Dogma says it can’t be so, ozone is controlled by a diffuse, well mixed, inert gas with 50 year residency times; and certainly NOT by something so flighty and variable as charged particles from space that just happen to arrive in the same cyclical pattern as the ozone changes… Heck, if that were the case you might see a bright spot one day and have it fade the next… kind of like that spot over Canada did between the 22nd and 23rd. (Oh Dear… )

Polar Electric Currents

Polar Electric Currents

(Original in the Birkeland wiki link above)

Here are the same two graphs presented as “deviations” from the average levels. You will need to click on them to get a clean version. For some odd reason this smaller view causes an odd “blocks of data and gaps” look on my machine (but the full image is clean):

Ozone deviation 23 Dec 2011

Ozone deviation 23 Dec 2011

Ozone deviation 22 Dec 2011

Ozone deviation 22 Dec 2011

Original Images From Here

These “deviation” or “anomaly” charts can sometimes make things look scary, as they make it look like there is a ‘hole’ in the ozone over Antarctica, but as you can see from looking at the concentration charts above, the ozone is actually at the lowest levels over the equatorial zones. That “Ozone Hole” is actually just a statistical artifact of the ‘baseline’ data compared to the current data. There isn’t any “hole” in the ozone over the poles at all. There is more of a “hole” in the ozone over the equatorial zones than at the poles!

But lucky us, this graph shows very little reduction from the ‘normal’ for ozone at the south pole. The north hemisphere is a bit of a mess, though. We have both a “hole” (that blue spot over Siberia) and a… what to call it… hill? An ozone “hill” over Canada! Golly, that ozone sure can be tricky stuff. It is supposed to be controlled by a ‘globally well mixed and diffused gas’, those CFCs from air conditioners, with a 50 year residency time in the air: Yet we have these kinds of dramatic and rapid variations all over the planet and there is a strong seasonal component. Rather like the Aurora… Almost like both of them might have a common “driver” for change…

What did the Aurora look like last night?

North Pole Aurora 24 Dec 2011

North Pole Aurora 24 Dec 2011

Oh, look at that, a bright Auroral Spot over Canada and toward Alaska, and a smaller one over Greenland, Siberia much less. Gee, almost like those ozone maps… Must be a coincidence…

At any rate, we can see that there is a nice weak spot between Greenland and Canada, just about over the Magnetic North Pole, where Santa can easily slip through the darker area, unseen. We can only hope he takes the brighter path and puts on a nice show tonight! Then again, as Christmas comes first to the International Date Line, he may need to slip out over Siberia and then to the Pacific Ocean.

Here is a South Pole view, just for completion:

Aurora South Pole 24 Dec 2011

Aurora South Pole 24 Dec 2011

Original Image From Here

Oh, look at that, the Aurora is away from the Antarctic Peninsula. Just like the ozone… So many coincidences, so little causality in the Consensus Model…

Merry Christmas

And with that, Merry Christmas to All, and to All, a Good Night!

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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18 Responses to Santa’s Aurora And Ozone Report

  1. ProgContra says:

    Nicely done…And a merry christmas to one and all.

  2. E.M.Smith says:

    While looking around on UV topics, I ran into this rather important posting:

    http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2010/12/new-paper-solar-uv-activity-increased.html

    JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 115, A12112, 11 PP., 2010
    doi:10.1029/2010JA015431

    Reconstruction of solar spectral irradiance since the Maunder minimum

    N. A. Krivova, L. E. A. Vieira, S. K. Solanki

    Solar irradiance is the main external driver of the Earth’s climate. Whereas the total solar irradiance is the main source of energy input into the climate system, solar UV irradiance exerts control over chemical and physical processes in the Earth’s upper atmosphere. The time series of accurate irradiance measurements are, however, relatively short and limit the assessment of the solar contribution to the climate change. Here we reconstruct solar total and spectral irradiance in the range 115–160,000 nm since 1610. The evolution of the solar photospheric magnetic flux, which is a central input to the model, is appraised from the historical record of the sunspot number using a simple but consistent physical model. The model predicts an increase of 1.25 W/m2, or about 0.09%, in the 11-year averaged solar total irradiance since the Maunder minimum. Also, irradiance in individual spectral intervals has generally increased during the past four centuries, the magnitude of the trend being higher toward shorter wavelengths. In particular, the 11-year averaged Ly-α irradiance has increased by almost 50%. An exception is the spectral interval between about 1500 and 2500 nm, where irradiance has slightly decreased (by about 0.02%).

    Golly, that’s a refreshing perspective…

    It has a rather remarkable graph of the increase in UV over time since the Maunder Minimum:

    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_nOY5jaKJXHM/TROOdgOGFJI/AAAAAAAABd4/2a-Lx0vQdlo/s400/uv+irradiance.jpg

    that has a remarkable “match” to the “global warming” since about 1800… then it goes flat about 1990-2000, just like the warming ended…

    As we know that the UV has recently plunged, and present weather has gone quite cool, I think we have a much better answer to both our recent “30 year average weather” changes and ozone changes… in the sun.

  3. Judy F. says:

    I hope that Santa brings you lots of shiny bits and a new shovel for when you have to “dig here”.

    Thanks for an incredibly interesting blog. I never know what I am going to find when I get here- a henge, the sun, liquid stone, kidney stones? It is one of the best parts of my day when I start reading what you have written. I enjoy your commentary as well as what your learned readers have to say.I always learn something new.

    Merry Christmas to all.

  4. cm says:

    Hi E.M.
    Have a good christmas and a great New Year.
    In Scotland we leave christmas for the weans(children ;-) )and can’t wait for it to be over. New Year is the opposite,most people can’t wait for the New Year to arrive. I’ll have a wee nip of whisky at NewYear and toast your health.
    All the best to you and yours E.M.

  5. E.M.Smith says:

    @Judy F.:

    Thanks for the wishes…. I’ll look for long handled presents ;-)

    Nice to know there is some benefit to being a bit ‘flighty’ in what catches my attention… though some topics have a recurrent persistence to them.

    @Adofo:

    Have you thought of selling a toy made that way?

    (Digging in the junk box on the list for tomorrow… I KNOW I’ve got an old magnet and some solid copper wire in there somewhere ;-)

    @cm:

    I think you need to make that 2 tipples… It’s been a while ;-)

    And may The Team be gang aft agley!

    With apologies to:

    http://www.robertburns.org/works/75.shtml

    @All:

    Off to church, then the evening part of Christmas with some relatives, then tomorrow morning, the family part then… so presence here will be ‘sporadic’ for a while. (Remember when Christmas was just one day… ;-)

    Best wishes to all and again: Merry Christmas. Happy Hanukkah, Warm Winter Holiday, or whatever floats your boat! (Me? Well, I’m a bit more of a Winter Solstice kind of guy.. but that was a couple of days ago… A nice Merlot, it was ;-) …. Celebratory Solstice? Sure, why not! 8-)

  6. j ferguson says:

    Merry Christmas E.M. and all. Thank you E.M. for your marvelous posts and you commenters for your worthy contributions.

  7. E.M.Smith says:

    @ProgContra:

    I see from a visit to your site (via your name / link) that you, too, started at “Gee, this warming thing must be serious, I need to learn more” then ran into the same “it doesn’t fit” disappointments. A great disillusionment happened to me, too, as I (way too slowly) realized that the scientists involved didn’t live up to my preconceptions of what a Real Scientist was…

    I, too, have had folks assert at me that I simply can not be anything but “right wing” (and have a posting up about the broken character of the right / left dogma). If you havn’t read it, I can fish out the link.

    But for tonight, it’s all just a Merry Christmas!

    @J. Ferguson:

    Thanks to you for being here!

  8. kuhnkat says:

    That high ozone over Canada is, of course, being strummed in by HARP.!! Completely man made. They will move HAARP to the Antarctica any day now to FIX this ozone hole!! 8>)

    Merry Christmas and Happy New year all!!

  9. John F. Hultquist says:

    Merry Christmas
    from Washington State
    east of the Cascade Crest

  10. Sera says:

    Merry Christmas from the east coast- good health to you and your families.

  11. E.M.Smith says:

    @Sera:

    Enjoy your Christmas Morning ( ought to be about 6 am there ;-)

    @John F. Hultquist:

    Nice place, east of the Cascades…. Enjoy your cold if dry Christmas ;-)

    @Kuhnkat:

    Perhaps a HAARP and a Russian Woodpecker? ;-)

    (Long time shortwave listeners will be wincing at old memories of the Russian Over The Horizon radar that made many bands sound like a band saw…)

  12. david says:

    Dear E,M, and all readers and posters at my favorite blog. Wishing you a very merry Christmas and expressing graditude for a great gift found here daily. Many souls endure a sad drought of having each day replay a recording of the same old thoughts, with nary a new thought or a new revelation entering the noggin, but here the mind can be daily delighted with ever new perspectives. For this you all have my thanks and best wishes.

    Humm?? Food for the new year.
    The model predicts an increase of 1.25 W/m2, or about 0.09%, in the 11-year averaged solar total irradiance since the Maunder minimum. Also, irradiance in individual spectral intervals has generally increased during the past four centuries, the magnitude of the trend being higher toward shorter wavelengths. In particular, the 11-year averaged Ly-α irradiance has increased by almost 50%.

  13. tckev says:

    Looking forward to the new year blogs for your interesting take on consensus thinking.
    Season’s greetings and a have a happy New Year
    and not as one of my friends wrote…
    Seasoned Grating and a Preposterous New Year!

  14. adolfogiurfa says:

    @E.M: Such a toy it´s a great idea: It would teach the children of the new generation the nature of the “Electric Universe”, or rather of a universe driven by charges, by the opposites Yin and Yang, where forces interplay making a symphony of reality: The music of the spheres, and where we can understand that “As above, so below”.
    BTW: The insurgence of a new paradigm, really the oldest and only, can change humanity in a completely different way as the way planned by the Agenda 21 of those “little devils” seeking their own and selfish goals.
    I am confident of that: “What goes up…must come down”

  15. Merry Christmas, E.M. et al !

    Like the birth of Christ, the birth of the Solar System was announced by a stellar explosion – in an event like the one that vaporized Hiroshima and ended World War II.

    Fear of Global Nuclear Annihilation frightened world leaders into adopting policies to secretly control:

    1. The Global Economy
    2. The Global Climate
    3. Nuclear Energy

    All three efforts failed miserably:

    1. http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pub/reports/201112PSI_issue.html
    2. http://dl.dropbox.com/u/10640850/Climategate_Roots.pdf
    3. http://arxiv.org/pdf/1102.1499v1

    The laws of Nature are far beyond the control of man. Fear not!

    http://dl.dropbox.com/u/10640850/No_Fear.pdf

    Merry Christmas and best wishes for the holidays!
    Oliver K. Manuel
    http://myprofile.cos.com/manuelo09

  16. E.M.Smith says:

    @Tckev:

    I love it… got a real giggle going on that one. About right, too ;-)

    @David:

    Thanks!

    Yeah, I can’t stay in the same rut for long. They tried to “cure” me of that in grammar school and high school… lucky for me, they failed ;-)

    @Adolfo:

    Just remember “What goes up, must come down; unless it has escape velocity!” ;-)

    @Oliver K. Manuel:

    Thanks,
    and Happy New Year is next!

    Yes, it never ceases to amaze me how much the Control Freaks keep trying, despite a very long history of profound failures shortly after they grab power.

    We laud Alexander The Great, yet forget to mention how short lived his empire was. Persian empires (several…) came and went. The Third Reich, Soviet Union, Mussolini’s Fascism… all gone (sometimes spectacularly).

    I think they look at Old Rome and a couple of thousand years and forget the others. They also forget that Rome went through several iterations (from Republic to Empire to Byzantine…) along the way.

    But hubris has no hope but to try and glory in the briefest of victories that comes just before the end…

    Quite frankly, I am not a very good Christian. I was raised in it, and know a lot about it, but really don’t embrace it all that much. ( I feel more drawn to Pagan and Buddhist ways…) Yet I deliberately encouraged my kids to be much more religious than I am. Why? To protect them from those Godless souls who hope to take control.

    I’ve read their books. One of their goals is the destruction of religion as that stands in the way of control of the people. So I’ve answered with a promotion of religion – even if I don’t quite ‘believe uncritically’…

    Resistance can be that simple.

    One ‘decline to state’ turned into 2 of “Gods Way or the Highway” in a single generation. They will never accept that man rules or that morality is subject to a vote…

    So I’m pretty sure that The Powers Of Avarice will make some advances. Just before the average Joe and Jane Sixpack say “Hey, get outta my house and outta my face.” Clinging to our guns and God. I like Joe and Jane Sixpack… they have their heads on straight.

    The Powers Of Avarice need to understand that being polite does not mean we’re weak… if pushed hard enough, we can, politely, escort them to the Trash Heap Of History too… Or maybe not so politely if needed.

    What I find particularly pleasant about it is that it can be done as simply as saying:

    Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, and Allah Be Praised, so God Be With You on this special day…

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