Transports

This is an infrastructure posting presenting the charts for various transportation related companies and ETFs.

In the Dow Theory, you needed both industrials and transports to show an upturn in activity to indicate a confirmed end of a down market and start of a new run higher.

This chart has a few industrial tickers along with IYT, a transportation ETF.

Transportation vs Industrials and both the SPY and DIA broad market

IYT  -  iShares Transportation Average ETF
XAL  -  Airlines Index.  That gold line on the bottom... (NEVER own an airline)
SPY  -  S&P 500 benchmark  ETF
DIA  -  Dow 30 "industrials" average (really a broad market ETF)
XLI  -  SPDR Industrials  ETF
IYJ  -  iShares US Industrials  ETF
IPN  -  SPDR International Industrials ETF

Longer list of Industrials ETFs

Transports

Transports are a very broad group. Generally divided into sea, rail, truck, and air transports. I will not be putting any airlines in this list for now, since I do firmly believe in the dictum “Never Own An Airline!”.

Trade, maybe, days at most… (Fares are limited by the government, bookings by fickle vacation planners and business cost control rules, wage costs are set by the unions, fuel costs by OPEC, and major capital costs for financing are driven by government actions. Exactly what major aspect of it’s business does an airline actually control? Advertising? Not a formula for success…) Realize that I do not put air cargo in the category of an airline. They set their own rates and are not as subject to the whims of vacation planning. FDX and UPS are covered.

For sea born shipping, it divides into vacation cruise lines (RCL and CCL), tankers for various liquids (mostly fuels – VLCCF, TGP, NAT etc.), “dry bulk” that mostly means coal, iron ore, wheat, fertilizer, etc. where the stocks are largely driven by the Baltic Dry Index, and container ships. The Exchange Traded Fund with ticker SEA is an easy way to get a mix, but has not done well lately.

When oil spikes up, shipping drops, and when the economy rolls over and dies, dry bulk sinks. Tankers tend to be more stable, and LNG tankers are on 30 year range leases so their income is very stable (TGP for example) and often have good dividends. Cruise lines vary with the psychology of the middle class (and up) traveling masses…

Broad Shipping comparison

Ships, a mix

1 year,
6 months

NAT   Nordic American Tanker - Burmuda tankers
SEA   Shipping ETF
RCL   Royal Caribbean Cruise - cruise ships, Florida USA
CCL   Carnival Cruise - cruise ships, Florida USA
EXM   Excel Maritime Carriers - Greek dry bulk
VLCCF Knightsbridge  - Very large crude carrier - Burmuda
DSX   Dianna Shipping - Greek dry bulk
HRZ   Horizon - USA container ships
NMM   Navios Maritime - Greek dry bulk
EGLE  Eagle Bulk - USA dry bulk

Canadian and U.S. Rail

Rails is both inside the USA / Canada and part of the complex that moves goods from sea ports inland.

Selected US and Canadian Rail

1 year,
6 months

CP    Canadian Pacific
CNI   Canadian National Railway
CSX   CSX Corp.
GWR   Genesee Wyoming
KSU   Kansas City Southern
NSC   Norfork Southern
UNP   Union Pacific

Air Cargo vs IYT transport ETF

Generally you only want to own these if they are beating the SPY benchmark.

Air Cargo vs SPY Benchmark and ITY Transportation Benchmark ETF

Early in the business cycle folks are cheap and shipping is by slow means like rail or trucking. Late in the business cycle folks are more flush with cash and in a hurry to get things done. That is usually when air transports outperform.

1 year,
6 months

IYT   Transportation basket - ETF
FWRD  Forward Air Corp. - Greenville, Tennessee
UPS   United Parcel Service - Atlanta, Georgia
AAWW  Atlas Air Worldwide - Purchase, New York
DDMX  Dynamex - Dallas, Texas
AIRT  Air T - Maiden, North Carolina
EXPD  Expeditors Intl.  Seattle, Washingtion
FDX   Federal Express - Memphis, Tennessee
UTIW  UTI World Wide - British Virgin Islands

Out to Sea… Ocean Transports

Shipping Comparison

A sloppy mess that looks sort of bottomed overall, but with a lot of separation between tickers. As usual, RCL / CCL worth more than bulk haulers. Guess hauling rich people around pays more than hauling coal ;-)

Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines, Carnival C.L., and SPY S&P 500

I need to add a ‘trucks race’ but that will have to wait until later… They have generally not been interesting for a few years anyway.

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