’70s Global Dimming and MORE IR leaves?

Sometime, some things, just make you want to go “hmmmmmm”….

I was looking for any record of the lunar surface temperature. Figured if we could show it was warming / cooling in sync with the Earth, we could finger something other than CO2 as causal. If they did NOT warm together, then it would strength the case for something ‘special’ about the earth. If the moon was cooling while the earth warmed, well, something is warming and it’s not the sun…

So I find this paper. It has WAY too short a data series (as it is from a surface instrument left by Apollo 12 on the lunar surface and we have not gone back to do maintenance…) yet it still has something very interesting; even if not what I’d expected. The moon warms while the earth COOLS. What? Backwards from CO2?

http://ns.umich.edu/new/releases/5864

This allowed him to uncover a lunar night-time warming trend from mid-1972 to late 1975, which was consistent with a global dimming of Earth that occurred over the same period and was due to a general decrease of sunlight over land surfaces. (Widespread ground-based radiation records from that period show that solar radiation reaching Earth’s surface during that period decreased significantly, for reasons that are not completely understood.)

OK, so we know it got cold in the ’70s (that whole ‘new ice age’ thing was popular then, and it snowed in my home town. Something only known from a half dozen or less times in history). WHY was it cooling? Some “global dimming” as the sunlight decreased.

What happened to the Earth energy budget, per the study? MORE heat signature was visible on the moon as more heat left the planet…

Gee, solar energy drops (sunspot proxy see below), Earth dumps MORE IR to space. Later sun brightens (as the ‘global dimming’ ended and we entered a new more active sunspot phase) and the Earth warms… Don’t suppose it might be due to LESS IR leaving? Driven by a solar process? (CO2 was rising nicely in the ’70s. I know as I was driving an old Chevy Impala that got about 10 mpg and Dad had a Dodge Charger that got about 7 mpg when you stepped on it. It got much better when cruising, but with a big old 440 4-barrel carb and hemi engine, who could EVER not step on it ;-)

OK, the actual paper is here:

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=lunar%20surface%20temperature%20history&source=web&cd=4&ved=0CDEQFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.geo.lsa.umich.edu%2F~shaopeng%2FHuang07ASR.pdf&ei=qr8MT9j3HMexiQLT2vTgAw&usg=AFQjCNGcgbOaqD0VrAj44wGEhy_UCXYyew&cad=rja

It mostly just goes on about how important Global Warming is and how ideal the moon would be to measure it, slips in the ‘upside down’ heating as earth cools, and then laments the lack of more instrumentation there. Still, it has its moments. The temperature series looks to run from 1971 to just into 1976 January.

The accidentally obtained Apollo 15 lunar surface temperature time series reveal distinct characteristics in the lunar daytime and nighttime surface temperatures. Superimposed on the diurnal and seasonal variations was an inter-annual daytime cooling trend over the observation period. In contrast, there was an upward trend in the lunar nighttime temperature which supposedly is controlled by the radiation from Earth.

OK, daytime temps dropping as the sun goes a bit quiet. Got it…

More importantly, there is a warming trend in the nighttime temperature over the entire observation period. The fluctuation of the nighttime temperature did not follow the same pattern of the daytime temperature. The peaks and troughs are offset in the day-time and nighttime temperatures.

So the moon night side has consistent warming trend over the observation period, and that shows the Earth IR flux delta is inverse with surface temperature; but varies with solar changes. Quiet sun, more IR flux out.

The reproducible daytime temperature trends of the Apollo 15 time series provide an independent confirmation of a stable radiation incoming from the Sun. In contrast to the lunar daytime maximum temperature variation, there is an upward trend in the nighttime minimum temperature.

So, solar side is more or less stable, but with a slight cooling trend.

More intriguingly, the fluctuation in the lunar nighttime temperature does not have the same rhythm as the fluctuation in the daytime temperature. To a great extent, the night-time temperature variation is independent of daytime temperature. This is evidence that daytime and nighttime temperatures at the lunar surface are governed by two different radiation processes, namely the solar radiation and terrestrial radiation.

The observed lunar nighttime warming from mid 1972 to the end of 1975 appears to be consistent with the global dimming of Earth prior to the late 1980s (Stanhill and Cohen, 2001; Pinker et al., 2005; Wild et al., 2005). Global dimming is resulted from a general decrease of sunlight over land surfaces. Widespread ground-based radiation records show that the solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface decreased by about 5% between 1960 and 1990 (Stanhill and Cohen, 2001). Given a constant total solar irradiance, the less sunlight reaches the Earth’s ground surface, the more solar radiation is reflected to the deep space, and the higher lunar nighttime temperature would be. To what an extent the observed nighttime lunar warming in the early 1970s can be explained by the reported global dimming on Earth remains yet to be investigated.

OK, so what caused the “Global Dimming” and why, just why, was it able to overrule the very great increase in CO2 post W.W.II and during the heyday of the US Automobile as Living Room?

Whatever it was, how does it modulate IR flows off planet such that as the planet cools, more leaves? Exactly the opposite of the radiation budget guys and their models…

Think maybe it had anything to do with clouds and the water cycle? Maybe that whole sunspot thing?

Sunspots in the late 20th Century

Sunspots in the late 20th Century

(from the sunspot wiki)

So gee, looks like we had a runt for a cycle in #20, right on top of 1970, then it drops down to a minimum at about 1975-1976. Just like now, TSI holds up pretty well. Even has added radiation down in the lower bands (so maybe why the moon continues to warm, better absorption of those bands closer to IR?), rather like now. Yet the Earth gets cold.

Houston, I think we have a ‘climate science’ problem…

The giant “Dig Here” on this one is pretty simple. Try to find a 1970s history of cloud cover. Try to find a history of UV and EUV. Maybe add in some cosmic ray counts. Connect all the dots.

Looks to me like we have a small ‘test case’ here, just waiting to be worked into a masters thesis… I don’t have time to pursue it all right now, but if folks know of appropriate sources, please put up some links. If Vukcevic can match this to his formula or if the gas giant planet orbital mapping can be shown to match too, all the better.

What we do have here, pretty clearly, is a direct comparison of a ‘black body’ like object and one with clouds and convection. A radiation model vs a convecting model. And the convecting model ran ‘backwards’ compared to the radiative one…

(Sidebar: This posting was composed entirely while running from a CD with no disk activity at all…)

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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34 Responses to ’70s Global Dimming and MORE IR leaves?

  1. Adrian Vance says:

    Why continue to chase CO2 when it has nothing to do with it? Any chemistry or physics high school student and certainly and college undergrad should be able to figure this out on the Internet in five minutes; ten at the most!

    CO2 is a “trace gas” in air, insignificant by definition, 1/7th the absorber of IR, heat energy, from sunlight as water vapor which has 80 times as many molecules captures 560 times as much heat making 99.8% of all “global warming.” CO2 does only 0.2% of it.

    Carbon combustion generates 80% of our energy. Control and taxing of carbon would give the elected ruling class more power and money than anything since the Magna Carta of 1215 AD.

    The Two Minute Conservative at http://adrianvance.blogspot.com for political analysis, science and humor. Daily on Kindle.

  2. E.M.Smith says:

    @Adrian Vance:

    What I find interesting about this particular “natural experiment” is the “exactly backwards” result. More CO2 AND more radiation away from Earth AS the sunny side of the moon warms.

    Yes, it’s a bit of ‘gilding the lily’ but I like existence proofs ;-)

  3. George says:

    I’d be interested in knowing about variations in intensity and polarization of the zodiacal light over that time. Haven’t seen any such data, though. I wonder if the amount of dust in the solar system varies by an appreciable amount over time.

  4. P.G. Sharrow says:

    @EMSmith; I’ve been thinking about this “dimming” thing and a thing I have remarked about on several threads. We seem to have at very high altitudes, thin clouds that have nothing to do with weather. Adolfo has pointed to “H”ions from the solar wind combining with O3 to create water vapor at extreme altitudes. This would be greatest at high solar outputs and less during quiet phases. A sort of self created sunscreen to reflect energy away. pg.

  5. E.M.Smith says:

    @George:

    Data. data… need more data… (Shades of “Input INPUT need more INPUT!!” from “number 5″)

    @P.G.Sharrow:

    Noctilucent clouds.

    http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/aim/news/notilucent-change.html

    Looking down from above, AIM captured this composite image of the noctilucent cloud cover above the Southern Pole on December 31, 2009. The 2009 cloud season began a month earlier than the 2010 season did. Credit: NASA/HU/VT/CU LASP

    High up in the sky near the poles some 50 miles above the ground, silvery blue clouds sometimes appear, shining brightly in the night. First noticed in 1885, these clouds are known as noctilucent, or “night shining,” clouds. Their discovery spawned over a century of research into what conditions causes them to form and vary – questions that still tantalize scientists to this day. Since 2007, a NASA mission called Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) has shown that the cloud formation is changing year to year, a process they believe is intimately tied to the weather and climate of the whole globe.

    Not real clear what drives the changes ;-)

    The article says warmer poles make the air rise faster so it gets colder…

    Yeah, you heard that right… It’s colder because it’s hotter…

  6. Jason Calley says:

    Perhaps someone can explain something to me, and I shudder to think that this may have so simple an answer that I will need to sit in the corner with a dunce cap.

    It looks pretty certain that convection of and phase change of water transports a lot more heat than our small increase in CO2 can be responsible for. Also, it is correct to remember that water vapor in the atmosphere has a MUCH more powerful effect in blocking IR than CO2 does. But that relationship between H2O and CO2 has me thinking… I have always (perhaps wrongly) considered H2O and CO2 as being basically separate in their interactions as they absorb or radiate IR — but is that correct? Consider this – suppose you have two molecules with the exact same absorption spectrum, call them A and B. OK, we know that the absorption rate of A progresses in a logarithmic fashion. All other gases absent and all other things equal, if we double A perhaps we get an increase in warming of one degree. But in the case where A and B are both present in the atmosphere and have the same absorption spectrum, obviously (at least I think it is obvious), if we are looking to create a one degree rise, we have to not just double A, but to keep increasing A until we have doubled the original A+B. In other words, to the extent that A and B have the same spectra, we cannot separate them when we speak of their effect.

    So here is my question: as far as I understand, the CAGW discussion has been based on the idea that doubling CO2 will (by itself and without any hypothetical additional “forcings”) increase global temps by roughly a degree or a degree and a half – but does that take into account the partial overlap of H2O and CO2 spectra? If H2O only overlaped (as an integrated measurement of its overlap with CO2) CO2 by a scrawny 25 %, the fact that there are 80 times as many H2O molecules means that H2O is already doing the equivalent blocking of 20 times what the CO2 does in the same wavelengths. H2O has effectively already doubled CO2 over four times. If you want a one degree rise from CO2 (due to its effects in additional blocking of IR) you will need to add 21 times — not just one time — as much CO2 as you start with. And of course, if the overlap is more than 25% the margin goes up even more.

    Am I missing something here? Doesn’t spectra overlap decrease the effect of CO2 added by a huge margin?

  7. Volumes of precise experimental data have been compromised since 1971 in a futile effort to control reality.

    http://dl.dropbox.com/u/10640850/Climategate_Roots.pdf

    Fundamental Truth: We have limited control over things in our own ego cages: Cause-and-effect controls everything outside – in reality.

    A few of the measurements/observations ignored to inflate egos: Science 174, 1334-1336 (1971); Nature 240, 99-101 (1972); Trans. MO. Acad. Sci. 9, 104-122 (1975); Science 195, 208-209 (1977); Nature 270, 159 – 160 (1977); Science 201, 51-56 (1978); Geochem. J. 15, 245-267 (1981); Meteoritics 18, 209-222 (1983); Astron. Astrophys. 149, 65-72 (1985); Meteoritics Planet. Sci. 33, A97 (1998); ibid., 33, A99 (1998); J. Fusion Energy 19, 93-98 (2001); 32nd Lunar Sci. Conf., paper 1041, LPI Contribution 1080, ISSN No. 0161-5297 (2001); J. Fusion Energy 21, 193-198 (2002); National Geographic Magazine, feature story: “The Sun: Living with the Stormy Star” (July 2004)].

    With kind regards,
    Oliver K. Manuel
    Former NASA Principal
    Investigator for Apollo

  8. Jay says:

    (Sidebar: This posting was composed entirely while running from a CD with no disk activity at all…)

    Running off of a Linux “Live” CD?
    Which one, Mepis is nice, as well as Puppy for live CD/DVD running.

    Slower to boot, but much faster to run if you boot with the TORAM option on Mepis. I think Puppy is usually TORAM.
    -Jay

  9. E.M.Smith says:

    @Jay:

    Still playing with Ubuntu…

    @Jason Calley:

    Some time back I ran into a posting about ‘CO2 cools moist air’ that is germane. CO2 and water strongly interact and you can form CO2 Clathrate ices at near antarctic temperatures…

    http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2011/04/08/co2-cools-damp-air/

    Yeah, they interact… Also the whole IR absorption thing is a bit of an issue as air has several forms with Ozone having overlap with CO2 IIRC, so change the ozone and change the CO2 effect…

    We don’t really know all the species floating around up there.

    Oh, and just to stir the pot: They put all the graphs and things in PPM. However, over geologic time the amount of air has decreased. So 1000 ppm in the past was the same total number of CO2 molecules as 2000 ppm now… that tends to be ignored.

  10. adolfogiurfa says:

    There is a system Sun-Earth-Moon, where the last one acts as “ground” respective to Earth and Earth as a cathode to the Sun (along with other planets).
    Prof.Piers Corbyn uses the Sun-Moon-earth relation in his forecasting method:
    http://www.weatheraction.com/
    Richard Holle too:
    http://research.aerology.com/aerology-analog-weather-forecasting-method/

  11. Jason Calley says:

    @ E.M. “Yeah, they interact… Also the whole IR absorption thing is a bit of an issue as air has several forms with Ozone having overlap with CO2 IIRC, so change the ozone and change the CO2 effect… ”

    Yes, and it looks to me that the interaction is extremely strong — so strong that the fairly common diagrams that purport to show the logarithmic effects of CO2 are essentially useless, other than as a pedagogical tool to illustrate a basic concept. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/03/08/the-logarithmic-effect-of-carbon-dioxide/ It is not just that there are other gases which are also doing green house duty simultaneously with CO2. The fact that the various gases overlap in their spectra means that it is essentially useless to calculate temperature rises for each single gas and then add the results. Their blockings do not simply add together, but rather work synergistically. The result is that adding more CO2 is not like adding a drop of ink to a glass of water; it is more like adding a drop of ink to a glass already very darkly tinted with a hundred other drops of slightly different inks, many of which already mimic the new drop.

  12. adolfogiurfa says:

    There is an old tradition that tells that there are two gates to trespass after death. One, the “Deva Loka” of God´s Gate and the Other, the “Asura Loka”, the gate of the devils, this gate connects with the moon….
    “In that place there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth, when you see Abraham and Isaac and Jacob and all the prophets in the kingdom of God but you yourselves cast out….
    Scary, isn´t it?. :-) Who have not developed a soul, they have nothing but their heat of their bodies …..and that IRR leaves their dead bodies to be absorbed by heat eager eater Moon.

  13. George says:

    “Not real clear what drives the changes ;-)”

    Noctilucent clouds form in the mesosphere. The water vapor in the mesosphere comes primarily from space. Little bits of ice from meteors and bits blasted off comets. If we have been collecting more such space debris, the water vapor in the mesosphere will increase. Interesting place, the mesosphere. Not much CO2 there because intense solar UV breaks it down into CO and O. Lots of nitric acid, lots of iron (!) from vaporized bits of space debris. The Mesosphere probably collected a rather large amount of water from shuttle flights, too, as the exhaust from the main engine was basically pure water vapor. That is also the area where “waste dumps” from manned space missions end up as they blast into the atmosphere. Pretty much everything that “burns up” in entry burns up in the mesosphere. Very little makes it to the stratosphere and even less to the troposphere.

  14. Jason Calley says:

    @ adolfogiurfa

    When reading some of your remarks, I have wondered about something for a while. If you will pardon a personal question, are you familiar with G. I. Gurdjieff?

  15. Dave says:

    Would be interesting to see what these guys are showing vs the IPCC:

    The Climate Corporation, a San Francisco company that mines large volumes of weather data and sells crop insurance to farmers, has become the latest tech company to open an office in Seattle to recruit tech talent.
    The list has included well-known tech companies like Google, Facebook and Zynga, as well as smaller companies such as GreenButton and Rhiza Labs that recently have opened up shop here.
    The Climate Corporation — formerly known as Weather Bill — said it picked Seattle because of the business-friendly environment and local talent pool. The company said it has several openings, including ones for a big data engineer, back-end software engineer and rails software engineer.
    The Climate Corporation uses Amazon Elastic MapReduce (EMR) Web service to process vast amounts of data.

  16. tckev says:

    You may find the project from a Russian interesting. He maintains that the sun’s output is on a decline and has been for quite a while.
    He’s at http://www.gao.spb.ru/english/astrometr/index1_eng.html

    happy hunting

  17. kuhnkat says:

    “(Sidebar: This posting was composed entirely while running from a CD with no disk activity at all…) ”

    Getting ready for your “Tallbloke” experience?

  18. adolfogiurfa says:

    @Jason Calley: Yes, many years ago, when Mrs.Dorothea Dooling (the founder of the magazine “Parabola”) was alive; back in the 70´s. It was a life changing experience.

  19. adolfogiurfa says:

    @Khunkat: We hope not…..there you have some not so nice procedures…like involuntarily “wetting” suspects :-)

  20. E.M.Smith says:

    @kuhnkat:

    It’s a mixed bag. I’ve always been involved in computer security stuff, so to some extent it is just a reaction based on decades of training for what do you do when a SHTF moment just misses you. ( i.e. any time a small quake happened, we did the big quake drill… then one day we has a great quake ;-) So to some extent it is just an excuse to get back into practice.

    Partly it is because it’s a “dig here” from about 2 decades ago that would now be very easy to dig. The encryption et.al. tools are better.

    Partly it is just a simple force / counter force thing. Tit meets tat. They start taking laptops, I need to be prepared for the laptop to be worthless. They start invading homes, I need the home to be irrelevant. They start looking in files, I need to make the files vapor. It is part of “speaking truth to power”. Power wants to have their balls swell and get that wonderful flush… I’m going to, er, deflate the ball with a sharp instrument…

    I am, at core, a boy scout. “Be Prepared”.

    The threat level has risen, so I must raise the preparation level.

    FWIW, I’m posting this comment from inside “Puppy”. It has a nice automounter for the usb drive. The browser it has, though, is one I’ve never used or heard of before. “Seamonkey”… Looks like an older primitive Mozilla clone. Adequate, I guess. The nice bits: It is Damn Fast. (Everything is tuned for small and it all sits in RAM.) It is easy to make go. It automounts the hard disk and I’ve already looked at a PDF and a couple of other files and made a new file on the disk. All in all, just dandy for a basic ‘lives on a tiny thumb drive or “music” CD’ with an encrypted SDHC card stuck in with the photographs pile as “data store”. So it’s a “keeper” for an easy to use very fast and basically functional system.

    Haven’t tried it on the laptop yet. ( I expect most things to fail there due to the “new” video driver needed). It does look like it autoconfigs the internet (thus my posting this ;-) and has a way to ‘glue on’ packages over the network. All in all, it needs some more exploring. As a ‘recovery system’ it would be fine. As a “live here all the time’ I’d want to customize a bit. ( It had to download Flash Player, for example).

    Do I expect “a visit”? No, not at all. Frankly, I’m just not that interesting. Like I’ve said before, I kind of wish I was as life can be tedious some times ;-) Anyone doing an investigation would put me in the pile of “carping wanna-bees” at this point. (Too many years out of practice with skilz, typically last to know about new foia releases, IP number puts me on the other side of the planet from ‘the action’, etc.)

    BUT, I do expect to some day be traveling by air and I do expect to someday have intrusive Chinese software get past the firewall… At that time I want them to ‘get nothing and leave nothing’. That is most easily done with a “read only” OS that boots anew each time and with a set of files that are encrypted all the time except when you wish to read one. At that time, you can even ‘boot anew’ with the ethernet unplugged and assure nobody ‘broke in’ just before you opened the box…

    Paranoid? No. More like an old hunting dog who hears a car backfire and goes “on point” at the squirrel at the feeder ;-) He knows it isn’t the real deal, but Ah, The Memories ;-)

    The only emotional angle, really, is that I’m a bit Pissed at how Tallbloke was treated and figure once I’ve got things up to speed again, posting a “how to do this” for everyone else will scratch that particular itch… A small thumb in the eye of Big Brother Watching.

    (Now where did I leave that MAC address editor and my list of IP anonymizers ;-)

  21. E.M.Smith says:

    @tckev:

    I met Habibullo I. Abdussamatov in Chicago. When you read something where I say ~”the best estimates are that we have an cold period until about 2040″ I’m talking about his stuff for 1/2 of it and a guy from Mexico for the confirmation using power spectrum stuff. They both get the same prediction.

    He’s a great guy, btw, and has it right. Starts from first principles and observations then works his way up… Oh, and his predictions ARE predictions (no doubt about it) and tend to be right.

  22. Jason Calley says:

    @ adolfogiurfa

    I know this subject is off topic, so I will be very brief and if you ever wish to discuss it more, we can move to “Open Talk”.

    I ran across Gurdjieff via Ouspensky in about 1970 or so. I had found a copy of Tertium Organum in the local library (remember those? Buildings full of books, hard copies!). Anyway, Gurdjieff is one of the more intriguing characters and teachers I have ever been exposed to. I laughed and cringed and thought deeps thoughts all the way through “Beelzebub’s Tales to his Grandson.” As you say, “It was a life changing experience.”

  23. adolfogiurfa says:

    @Jason Calley: Be my guest. I attended the “fourth way” group in Lima, Peru, under the direction of Mrs.Dooling, until I “graduated” :-)
    You can find in my web page a copy in PDF of Ouspensky´s book : In search of the miraculous / Fragments of an unknown teaching.
    http://www.giurfa.com/fragmentsof.pdf

  24. adolfogiurfa says:

    @E.M.Smith:
    Also a remarkable study is Ivanka Charvatova´s:
    Can origin of the 2400-year cycle of solar activity be caused by solar inertial motion?
    “The current cycle 22 is probably the last of the high ones. It should be followed by an epoch of about 40 years, in which the solar motion will be chaotic (disordered) and solar activity, therefore, should be low. The cycles will probably be longer and irregular.”
    http://www.giurfa.com/charvatova.pdf
    According to the Laws of Manu, one of the earliest known texts describing the yugas, the length is 4800 years + 3600 years + 2400 years + 1200 years for a total of 12,000 years for one arc, or 24,000 years to complete the cycle (one precession of the equinox)
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuga
    Also Professor Misha Vukcevic, a regular of “Musings from the Chiefio” remarkable extrapolation of Sun´s polar fields:
    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC2.htm
    and:
    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/MagAn.htm
    Where it can be clearly appreciated Sun´s regular rhythm.

  25. E.M.Smith says:

    @Jason & Adolfo:

    If you guys want, I can open a thread about whatever it is you’re talking about ;-)

    I’m interested in a lot of the ‘higher consciousness’ stuff even if I am rather ignorant about it ;-)

    Oh, and I REALLY like Charvatova’s works… Her stuff was some of the first stuff that got me started on long cycle solar / planet patterns vs weather vs history…

  26. adolfogiurfa says:

    @E.M. Great!, just open a thread about the fundamental laws of nature. The EU guys are so, but so near them, so near to the “Golden Compass” that, believe it or not, that new paradigm will demolish all “new age” conspiracies.
    But, it is not a matter of just learning, it is about realizing them, comprehending them, and it is not about something “beyond our reach” or “out of this world”, that would be also silly and childish. Someone said: “this is more material than materialism”, as it is not an “ism” either.
    How about asking WHY SQUARING “C” in E=mc2, to begin with: That would press too sensitive corns…
    Or asking simple questions: Why does our earth spin around?

  27. P.G. Sharrow says:

    The C2 of E=MC2 is close to correct in mathematical result and a cute piece of algebraic short hand but wrong in fact and in extension results in very strange out comes in logic.

    As to fundamental laws there is a point where physics and psychics meet at a single point. When you understand the true nature of Aether you will understand the nature of all of physics as well as the nature of all psychic phenomena. pg

  28. Wayne Job says:

    E.M. the solving of the puzzle of Earths climate lays in the understanding of all the sinodic patterns in all our records of paleo and climate. Understand the causes of all the sine waves and prediction is possible. The answers lay outside our Earth, it only responds.

  29. E.M.Smith says:

    @P.G. Sharrow:

    I always wondered where it came from … Do you have a pointer to somewhere showing it to be just an approximation?

    @Wayne Job:

    I’m reaching that conclusion as well. That posting a few back showing a strong lunar signal was rather valuable too. As all the planets orbit AND bob up and down around the ecliptic, “stuff happens”… and it matters.

  30. P.G. Sharrow says:

    @EMSmith;
    Here is a link to a site that gives an interesting take on E=M*C2

    http://www.science20.com/hammock_physicist/whats_wrong_emc2

    This Wiki gives a take on deriving E=M*C2, from a list of physics formula. It is about half way down the page.

    http://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Einstein

    You can see why it is a very nice piece of algebraic short hand.
    You can also see why it results in a lot of lame extended outcomes.
    I hope you are versed in higher physics algebraic terms and notation. I flunked algebra twice. I can do it, but very slowly. Must be why I became a farmer and not a nuclear scientist. ;-) pg

  31. R. de Haan says:

    Geoff Sharp has a new article titled “Grand Harmonic Climate Model”
    http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/236

    He has based his article on three cycles:

    1. The Ice Age Cycles (Milankovitch, 100,000 years)(J/S/U/N)

    2. Solar Grand Minimum & Solar Modulation Cycle (Sharp, 172 years)(J/S/U/N)

    3. PDO/ENSO Harmonic Cycle (Scafetta, 60 years)(J/S)

  32. Jerry says:

    ‘Based on readings from more than 30,000 measuring stations, the data was issued last week without fanfare by the Met Office and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit. It confirms that the rising trend in world temperatures ended in 1997.’

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2093264/Forget-global-warming–Cycle-25-need-worry-NASA-scientists-right-Thames-freezing-again.html

    But they still will not give up on CO2 as a warmer, just too much skin in that game to turn loose I guess. :)

  33. adolfogiurfa says:

    @Jerry (00:35:02) : Curiously it coincides with Dr. Piers Corbyn report that his web page had been hacked. A known super-computer in action?
    Would it not be better if the Met Office gets a subscription to Dr.Piers Corbyn forecasts?

  34. R. de Haan says:

    I’ve picked this article up from Climate Realists
    Habibullo Abdussamatov: Bicentennial Decrease of the Total Solar Irradiance Leads to Unbalanced Thermal Budget of the Earth and the Little Ice Age

    http://climaterealists.com/?id=9052

    Over the past 7.500 years we have experienced 18 deep solar minima.
    We’re now in for the 19th and Habibulllo Abdussamatov provides us with the details of the how and the when.

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