France Approves Socialist Hollande

No, not Holland the country, Mr. Hollande the candidate.

http://www.dw.de/dw/article/0,,15903892,00.html

As expected, French socialist Francois Hollande has won the first round of the presidental poll. But populist extremist parties have also brought in record results.

The first signs of Francois Hollande’s victory came from France’s overseas territories where already around noon the first results came out. Voters in Martinique and Guadeloupe confirmed what had been widely expected: Socialist Francois Hollande is the clear favorite for winning the French presidency and taking over from Nicolas Sarkozy at the Elysée Palace.

Hollande almost through

Hollande got around 29 percent in the first round of voting and thus came ahead of Sarkozy who merely mustered 26 percent. The incumbent though can claim a somewhat less flattering win – according to an opinion poll he is the least popular president of France’s recent history.

“It really would take a lot to give Sarkozy another chance to win re-election after all,” Henrik Uterwedde of the Franco-German Institute think tank told DW. He’s sure that unless there’s a major blunder by Hollande, he’ll win the presidency in the runoff vote on May 6. “It would be incredibly difficult for Sarkozy to catch up. I see Hollande as the clear favorite.”

So being in a bucket of warm spit, they have decided that a hop into the fire would be an improvement…

France indeed is faced with tough challenges at the end of Sarkozy’s term. Unemployment stands at a 20-year record of 10 percent, public debt is getting out of hand and the trade deficit is massive. The next five-year term is likely to be difficult and many French voters do not necessarily trust Hollande to do that much of a better job. “The result does not suggest a glowing pro-Holland sentiment either.”

The article goes on to say the Communist backed candidate picked up 12%.

Let’s see… Wasn’t France one of the countries being held up as being in good enough condition to help bail out Spain, Greece, Italy, …

20 year record unemployment. Debt out of control. Trade deficit ‘massive’. Hmmmm…. Exactly how will the typical Socialist policies, of more massive public debt and suppression of capitalist productive enterprise with its emphasis on export goods that actually sell; help in any way? I can see how it will get unemployment down (by mandating the present small pie be shared more broadly) but that doesn’t fix the basically floundering economic state.

Well, on the good side; at least it may mean a quicker end to the EU as France and Germany squabble more. A new French Nationalism coupled with a Socialist “take care of the people” is unlikely to embrace more bailing out Spain and more supporting Germany.

Then again, this is France, so who knows what it really means. Sarkozy had made a lot of promises he could not keep, and was supportive of the Franco-German Alliance (that is largely, IMHO, what the EU had become) as a way to rope the rest of Europe into a new Holy Roman Empire (just without the Holy part…)

As of about 10 minutes ago, CNBC World covered the European market open. They have a ‘heat map’ with green squares for up companies and red squares for down. A sea of red on the board, not much green. We’ll see if this keeps up (sometimes the first few minutes of a market can take wide swings, sometimes both ways, before stabilizing into a trend).

The Asia part of the map is looking a bit red too. ( They have a geographies map by country as well as the heat map).

So, all in all, the world is voting that “Things are not so good, eh Jacques?”

How one can think that adopting socialist policies can fix an economy broken by too many socialist policies is a bit beyond me. But they are French, after all. (Per my parents, I have some small percentage of French somewhere in my ancestry, but I’ve lost track of exactly which bit… Something like 1/8 or 1/16. I presume that’s enough to permit me my small joust at the French…)

BMW expects lots of growth of sales… to China. Guess who has the money and wants to buy hot cars? Follow the money…

And Spain announces that Repsol will sue anyone attempting to invest in the Argentine nationalized bit that it used to own… Well. Guess it’s OK for the Colonial Powers to nationalize things, but not the ex-Colonies. Personally, I’d rather everyone followed the Rule Of Law and recognized Property Rights. Maybe it’s a European thing… I just wish such ideas were not setting in over here.

I was going to post a link to the story, but a web search turned up a few dozen suits over different bits, so it looks like a lawyer driven trade war starting up:

http://duckduckgo.com/?t=ous&q=repsol+sue+Argentina

While CNBC is also reporting that the Dutch are declining to implement the budget cuts being demanded by Brussels.

Sure looks to me like the EU breakup is accelerating. Maybe I’d been giving it too long to last. But this Holland is one of the last 4 EU countries with a AAA rating, and they are rejecting the process? Maybe I need to rethink the pace in light of more wide spread pressures and exponential rise?

We also get to remember that this Euro-Influenza will almost certainly reflect in the US markets when they open, too. There will be a bit of ‘safe haven’ aspect helping hold American markets up in comparison, but the overall impact will be negative.

I guess the only real question is how long will Chinese purchases of Mercedes and BMWs keep propping up Germany? As the last one standing, it will have ever more “issues” showing up. China is slowing down. In slowdowns, the purchase of cars gets ‘put off’. Even by the very new rich.

France vs Spain and Germany 23 April 2012

France vs Spain and Germany 23 April 2012

This is a static capture of the state of the ETFs traded in the USA, so does not capture the drop of today as our markets are not open yet.

Live Chart at BigCharts.com

We see that RSI started having “lower lows” after a “near 80 experience” some time back. DMI went “red on top” start of the month. MACD went from ‘weaving sideways’ to a more clear ‘red on top, steep down’ back at the start of the month though the first indications of bad was middle of last month, crossing below the zero line a bit after that. All saying “Be Out” of France. Spain looks even worse, and got there sooner. Germany has even taken a hit lately.

EWQ is the France ETF. EWP is the Spanish one. EWG for Germany.

Not a lot of reason to be in the EU (then again, I’ve been ‘out of there’ for a while now.) No signs of bottoming either. It also looks like the rate of decay of a given ticker is proportional to their debt / GDP issues and their unemployment / balance of trade issues. As those are not all that hard to predict, for basic trend, its useful to recognize.

On CNBC World (now an hour into the day) only a very few boxes on the first line of the heat map (out of many lines) has any green. Trend clearly down.

Well, hang onto your hats, boys and girls, it’s gonna be a bumpy ride…

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
This entry was posted in Economics, Trading, and Money, Political Current Events and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

46 Responses to France Approves Socialist Hollande

  1. R. de Haan says:

    Yesterday the Dutch Minority Cabinet of Liberal Prime Minister Rutte collapsed after Gert Wilders, Freedom Party pulled the plug on the austerity negotiations of 18 billion.
    Wilders said he could no longer accept the pressure of EU rulings and the cuts of the pensions of the elderly.
    There will be elections in September and guess what…
    The freaking Socialists have a big chance to win them.

    In the mean time from ZH
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/europes-efsf-firewall-risk-3-month-highs-accelerating-fastest-rate-6-months

    Europe is turning red again but now for two reasons.
    Spending other people’s money will accelerate.

    I hate the current electorate of brainwashed morons but if they push the EU and the IMF over the edge, they have my blessing.

    The sooner the better.

  2. E.M.Smith says:

    Looks like European PMI (manufacturing index) came in at lowest since 2009 and “talking heads” are in a twitter about it. More bad news. VW announced new factory in China…

    Wonder where the reboot after the collapse will come from… I think we need to ‘go there’…

    China will ‘win’ right up until their “customers” are bankrupt. Then the repudiation of the debt will cause China to fail and international rule of law to be repudiated. Euro Zone to become a basket case. USA following the same pattern, via Obamanomics, and the present polls giving him ‘coin toss’ odds of a second term.

    Maybe Australia will pull back from the brink in time… I’d hate to have to learn Czech this late in life ;-)

    Maybe Adolfo is right… Peru and Chile have recent memories of their “Aw Shit” moment playing with this approach. Once the European dominoes start to fall, they will tend to pull back. Might make a decent survivable pocket for market economics to survive… even if Argentina and Brazil head back down the same Nationalize and Demonize class envy path again

  3. George says:

    There will be a runoff. The le Pen votes will probably go to Sarkozy. He may well hold on but by the skin of his teeth.

  4. George says:

    If Hollande wins the runoff, it is the end of the Euro. Germany will pull out and that will be the end of it.

  5. R. de Haan says:

    @George
    I think your assessment about the French elections is correct George but about Germany I don’t know.
    Until now the Germans resisted but in the end rolled over.
    Form a government position, Merkel is in a pact with the liberals but their political bas has evaporated. In Europe however Merkel is howling with the socialists.
    Never forget where she came from.

    The German’s are unpredictable in times of recession and show herd behavior.

    @E.M, I wouldn’t take the risk depending on China for a reboot.
    German car industry is already slipping through the back door into China.
    If VW doesn’t put up a factory in China their cars offered on the Chinese market will become too expensive due to import duties.
    In the mean time every US/EU car sold in China will slow down the Chinese car industry. In China they fight for market share by copying car models from the West. Besides that all technology, from brake systems to ABS, engine management systems, airbags all come from the US and Germany.
    Chinese cars still don’t make it through EU and US crash test’s.
    Where they are successful in Europe is with trucks and busses.
    Europe and the US today don’t offer the right economic climate China cars.

    However the biggest threat to all our business still remains the theft of intellectual properties at an ever increasing scale, German top designers, technology experts and suppliers taken over by Chinese factories and German development companies taken over by Chinese investors.

    However, I can’t get the map out of my mind published at http://green-agenda.com
    that shows China as the industrial factory of the world.

    And there is this wild card of the Chinese Government.

    At the same time we must not forget India.
    Top marks like Volvo and Jaguar are now in Indian hands as a big chunk of EU/Global steel production.

    China and India officially are still in a state of war and the testing of the long range missile last week by india stirred relations more than we think they did.

    And with US foreign policy in the hands of the most incompetent President of our times big surprises could be around the corner.
    http://rarereaders.seablogger.com/2012/04/obamadebacle/

  6. adolfogiurfa says:

    Now everything is joy, but…….., a few moths ahead, nothing but tears. Social policies look nice and fair but reality is always harsh and dreams finish when you wake up. “There is no free lunch” as said a former economy minister of Peru. We learned the hard way. If someone appears one day at your door saying that he,she or they will give you a lot of presents for “free”, ask how much it will cost you. China´s case as Peru´s case are a kind of the “baby boomers” phenomenon you had in the US: a rapidly growing population buys more and more, then some politicians appear to achieve “equality” and “fair share”, and of course through collecting bribes and “commissions”, they establish a “redistribution” system where they collect the more and redistribute the less, but everything out of any reasonable budget, expenses wildly in excess of income (Anyway, “it´s not MY money”!). This is what happens now in the US and will happen under Hollande….unless he surprises everybody and endorses a rational economic policy.

  7. adolfogiurfa says:

    @E.M: About China: The president of China, attending the OPEC summit in 2008, in Peru, was asked by a local TV journalist how he could explain the apparent contradiction between the communist revolution´s China and its capitalistic reality, to which he answered by saying, as I remember: ” nobody still knows which will be the final outcome of the French Revolution, so it is still too early to judge China´s revolution” (??). Funnily the TV journalist´s knowledge seemed to collapse then, but the issue is really meaningful, as the president of China was implying that what we live today, in the occidental world, is the continuation of a few facts which happened in Paris, France, almost 300 hundred years ago, after Necker was designated minister of the treasury, when all this conspiracy began, disguised as “Liberte, Egalitè, Fraternitè”, when lenders then out of governments, became the rulers behind the scene.

  8. KevinM says:

    “BMW expects lots of growth of sales… to China. Guess who has the money and wants to buy hot cars? Follow the money…”

    And the Chinese money comes from merchantilist exports to… Decoupling theory is BS. If the Euro goes down, Chinese 8 percent GDP growth goes negative fast.

  9. adolfogiurfa says:

    The world after the EU and US crisis still has a foreseeable future: Just imagine having a house on the top of a mountain, powered by Andrea Rossi´s E-Cat and having two P.G.Sharrows´
    vehicles in the garage for transportation……. :-)

  10. p.g.sharrow says:

    Well, Rossi is way ahead of me to a practical device and I think will be able to sneak it through the cracks of the bureaucratic system. In my case there are at least 3 Federal agencies that would do all they can to prevent the use of my device. Hmmm ……..maybe Peru would let us fly it. :-)
    As to the worlds economics. China is running a trade war against the world, at some point the free trade to the rest of the world will be ended. At present they are closed to free trade in and If you want to sell in the great Chinese market place you must build your factory in China, give controlling interest to the Chinese and train them to operate the factory. Now we see Boeing, Microsoft, Apple, GM and many others fighting to give the crown jewels of western technology to China as they think they will improve their bottom line. They are just creating their worst competitors and will lose everything. Next step, all out trade war as the west erects tariff barriers to Chinese goods in retaliation to the Chinese barriers that are getting worse. The Chinese now believe their own propaganda that they are on their way to being the top dog in the world and can force their wants on the world system. The socialist Ideal of world wide free trade is dieing as the Chinese HOG is eating all worlds wealth. Nationalist Socialists and Populists will end that, to preserve the last bits of national wealth that they can control. pg

  11. adolfogiurfa says:

    @P.G.: Here you would´t ask for a permit, informality is one face of liberty and the source of economic growth….

  12. adolfogiurfa says:

    @P.G.: They are just creating their worst competitors and will lose everything….
    That´s the ultra-super-funny side of all it….even many of the Lenders-Barons have moved there…LOL!
    Do they remember what happens there when someone falls in disgrace? I do not forget those old photographs in Life magazine showing kneel down people waiting to be decapitated….

  13. Æthelwold of Wessex says:

    You’ll be hard pushed, to find any real difference, between the policies of Sarkozy & Hollande.

  14. Pascvaks says:

    @ Æthelwold of Wessex –
    “You’ll be hard pushed, to find any real difference, between the policies of Sarkozy & Hollande.”

    If it really is 6 of 1 and a half dozen of the other, perhaps that is the problem. Imagine if McCain had won the last US presidential election and Obama were jumping up and down now to “FIX” everything;-) Momentum is difficult to control. The West has a tremendous amount of momentum hurtling down a mountain right now, it does, and doesn’t, really matter who’s driving or pushing the buttons if no one has any new and bright ideas of how to manage a disaster. Like Bush “W” and Katrina. Waiting is not a strategy. Little tweeks ain’t much better. The West seems to be full of ‘Little Tweekers’ right now and no one seems willing to throw the real heavy cargo overboard. (Don’t ya love mixed metephors, sometimes they’re the best way to describe chaos?;-)

  15. R. de Haan says:

    @Ian W,
    Watch the French banks.
    No austerity measures can save them.
    We see a complete elimination of the middle classes.
    France is a dead man walking.

  16. Beano says:

    China’s governing elite are in turmoil at the moment. There will be change in leadership in a few months. The ongoing scandal and ouster of Bo Xilai and his wife have had one positive outcome – at least to the wests eyes – Bo was a old school communist. He run his area of responsibility like the old centralized Mao model. The Beijing elite are running with the “market approach” to the economy and didn’t want a backward step from a Bo if ha assumed more power later this year.

    Australia is completely at the mercy of the Chinese economy. Mining is supporting asutralia’s economy – without it Australia would be bankrupt. Australia is a place where basic assets and commodities have no relationship with prices paid for them. Assets and commodities in Australia cost up to three times what it costs in other OECD countries.

    Check the image closely and then look at the name in the background

    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7198/6962027892_26ffb25163.jpg

  17. Randall says:

    I was looking for an inverse Spain ETF last week but didn’t find one. EPV is moving though.

  18. E.M.Smith says:

    @R. de Haan:

    In the news also was VW opening a plant in China…

    There’s an interesting “Three Way” with India, China, and Pakistan all setting up for a mess…

    @Adolfo:

    Yes, very perceptive. The French Revolution was the root from which grew both the Socialist movement and the Classical Liberal movements. He’s saying we’re struggling with that, and we are.

    China IS the wild card…

    @All:

    Yes, the Chinese strip mining of all intellectual property of the west is a major issue…

    @Keven M:

    Yup. Joined at the hip.

    @George:

    The interesting thing is that Le Pen group. Where they go, so goes the result, IMHO.

    @Ian W:

    Oh Boy, more reading ;-)

    @Beano:

    If China goes unstable, all sorts of bad things happen…

    @Randall:

    As best I can tell, you can only do options on EWP to get a short… Buy puts or sell calls…

    Don’t know of a short ETF on it.

  19. adolfogiurfa says:

    @Beano: There will be change in leadership in a few months.
    I do not think there are discrepancies like in the west, their psychology is different: Any change in leadership is just to justify well thought and planned changes, like….anything we could imagine, perhaps not lending anymore to some….

  20. R. de Haan says:

    E.M.Smith says:
    24 April 2012 at 5:51 am
    @R. de Haan:

    “In the news also was VW opening a plant in China…”
    Yes, but this is inevitable because of the high import and taxes on cars produced outside China no at a rate of 40%.

    “There’s an interesting “Three Way” with India, China, and Pakistan all setting up for a mess…”
    We mastered a cease fire agreement in Korea only because we threatened China with a nuclear war.
    There is evidence Kennedy in 1963 made a similar threat to China to end the Sino Chinese war and he also ended the Dutch War in Indonesia.

    Today US foreign policy towards Pakistan and the war in Afghanistan has made the China-Pakistani relationship that already existed much stronger. Pakistan allowed for Chinese presence in Kashmir further escalate relationships and so is the recent launch of a new Indian missile that came with a lot of anti Chinese propaganda.

    This is a major development which is much underestimated by the West and not even mentioned by Western politicians.

    Merkel has visited China three times over the past year.
    Every time she addressed the subject of civil rights in China and each time the Chinese Prime Minister had problems with his head phone.
    The presence of the Chinese Army in Kashmir is not addressed at all.
    Spengler has some interesting articles on the subject (see Asia Times Online)

    In the mean time, under Obama, we endure the worse US foreign policy in decades.
    In fact there is no coherent foreign policy at all.
    You only have to look how we handled the situation in Egypt and Iran,
    see the youtube I posted earlier about the subject.

    Obama is an absolute disaster for America and the world.
    As a consequence we live in a much more dangerous world.

  21. Laurence M. Sheehan, PE says:

    Real economic growth only occurs when value is added to any economy. The US had excellent economic growth before EPA and the like came to be, and our so-called “leaders” abandoned mining, smelters, manufacturing, each of which processes provided significant economic value to our nation’s economy.

    Minning, smelting and actual manufacturing, mining our own ores, smelting those ores into metal, and ending with our own manufactured products, all done right here in the US of A. After those processes were made forbidden by various laws, the end result was obvious to me . . . more and more borrowing by the Congress to no end in sight, which spells destruction of the value of the American dollar. Socialism is communism “Lite”.

  22. R. de Haan says:

    Laurence M. Sheehan, PE says:
    24 April 2012 at 8:57 pm

    If I would want America to fail….

  23. R. de Haan says:

    And don’t mind that other iron China has in the fire:
    North Korea prepares for nuclear test soon
    http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/04/24/north-korea-nuclear-test-coming-soon-senior-official-says/

    I thought Obama had negotiated a great peace deal with NK a few weeks ago?
    The guy must have been dreaming.

  24. omanuel says:

    I see encouraging signs tonight that the UK’s RAS (Royal Astronomical Society) is leading gatekeepers of science in the formerly “Free West” to a full retreat !

    1. Toronto’s Oye Times reports today the Japanese Hinode team of scientists has concluded that in about one month (in May 2012):

    “Magnetic field polarity at the solar poles will reverse and become quadrupolar in May, meaning positive fields will emerge in the North and South poles and negative fields will emerge on the equator, according to the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan and other institutes. When a similar phenomenon occurred about 300 years ago, the Earth’s average temperature fell slightly. ”

    http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/features/science/T120420005829.htm

    Abrupt changes in solar magnetic, arise from the Sun’s pulsar core or the iron-rich mantle that surrounds it ["Superfluidity in the solar interior: Implications for solar eruptions and climate," J. Fusion Energy 21, 193-198 (2002)]. This probably induced past changes in Earth’s magnetic poles.

    http://arxiv.org/ftp/astro-ph/papers/0501/0501441.pdf

    2. Today UK’s RAS published Professor Henrik Svensmark’s paper, “Evidence of nearby supernovae affecting life on Earth” and this news item: “Did exploding stars help life on Earth to thrive?”

    http://www.ras.org.uk/news-and-press/219-news-2012/2117-did-exploding-stars-help-life-on-earth-to-thrive

    Here’s Nigel Calder’s report::

    http://calderup.wordpress.com/2012/04/24/a-stellar-revision-of-the-story-of-life/

    3. Yesterday Professor Stuart Firestein, Chair of the Department of Biology at Columbia University, published a new book showing that ignorance drives real science and arrogance drives consensus science.

    4. Professor Curry allowed me to post a comment showing that Climategate documents and emails released in Nov 2009 are simply part of the world-wide attempt since 6 Aug 1945 to control people by controlling their access to information:

    http://judithcurry.com/2012/04/23/ignorance-the-true-engine-of-science/#comment-194704

    I expect the US NAS to follow the lead of the UK’s RS.

    With kind regards,
    Oliver K. Manuel
    http://omanuel.wordpress.com/about/

  25. Pascvaks says:

    @OKM
    Thanks for the heads-up and link to Calderup re: Svensmark’s latest. Very Interesting, indeed! Like the Old Idea (sarc) of Continental Drift, this one about Supernova and Sea Levels may have some pretty long legs too. Thanks again!

  26. adolfogiurfa says:

    @Pascvaks. But nobody asks about the consequences of several wavelengths radiation in the length of our life. We do not usually overcome the duration of a single Gleissberg cycle :-( and this is happening RIGHT NOW, so don´t care about dinosaurs´ health :-)

  27. Pascvaks says:

    @Adolfo -
    Curious about your take/reaction to this news release that “Calderup” references:

    Did Exploding Stars Help Life On Earth To Thrive?
    Last Updated on Tuesday, 24 April 2012 09:47
    “Research by a Danish physicist suggests that the explosion of massive stars – supernovae – near the Solar System has strongly influenced the development of life. Prof. Henrik Svensmark of the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) sets out his novel work in a paper in the journal Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society…”

    http://www.ras.org.uk/news-and-press/219-news-2012/2117-did-exploding-stars-help-life-on-earth-to-thrive

    Maybe best to chat about it at T5 since the French will probably ignore it for a few years in their present preoccupation;-)

  28. KevinM says:

    omanuel: “part of the world-wide attempt since 6 Aug 1945 to control people by controlling their access to information”

    So I guess you must be all fired up about the creation of the new US federal intelligence agency, an organization with obvious duplication of CIA responsibilities.

    Personally I don’t care how many clowns are hired to create conspiracies against me. Thus far, they seem not to value anything I do, so it is a false competition… except my income. If they would just keep their hands out of my pocket and focus on producing easily debunked propaganda, clearly fraudulent reports and comically misinterpretted infographics with better operational efficiency.

  29. adolfogiurfa says:

    @KevinM: Kids like playing, though sometimes their games may turn ugly, like bullying others :-)

  30. R. de Haan says:

    Or ignoring the accomplishments of certain politicians like Ron Paul
    http://www.prisonplanet.com/ron-paul-winning-msm-decides-its-safe-to-announce-delegate-wins.html Yes I know, it;s from a dubious source but still… smoke and fire…..?

    I think the time has come to focus on the US elections, the process and the role of MSM.
    Paul IMO is ignored, cheated out of delegates and treated like a disease by the GOP establishment. I smell a rat, a very big rat.

    Much is said about the “fools” in government, but the biggest fools are those what watch them
    performing their act doing nothing about it.

  31. R. de Haan says:

    Posters on different blogs told me Paul would be wiped out the moment Santorum would throw in the towel and give up on the elections.
    After his performance in Iowa and Minnesota, the proof is on the table that they have been wrong.

    I think Paul is the only anti dote to the Obama Administration, the Fed, EPA, the UN, Globalmania and the assault on personal freedoms and property rights.

  32. E.M.Smith says:

    @R. de Haan:

    It’s really a very simple thesis that accounts for all the known facts, while being the simplest. So Occam would approve. I don’t at all like what it means. I even don’t like having thought it up; so I certainly can’t just accept that it is right. ( “My Bad” as I usually would be satisfied with Occam… but I really have an emotional difficulty tossing out so much of what I was taught over the decades with so little evidence). But…

    If you postulate 2 things, it “all fits”:

    1) Power does not want an uncontrolled competitive political process. Therefor it is ‘managed’.

    2) BOTH the Republicans and the Democrats are subject to the same external (and internal…) “management” to achieve a “controlled” process.

    At that point it “fits”:

    1) The “wobble” about a ‘left center’ position as the “3rd Way Progressive” ideal of socially directed and controlled political ‘advance’ – from BOTH sides. (Nixon was a “progressive” president…) Last thing they want is a smaller government control structure.

    2) The way any really populist movement or candidate gets rapidly painted as a crank, or nut, or ‘too radical’ or stupid or… long list of pejoratives.

    3) IFF a populist actually gets the nomination of a party, he gets assigned a V.P. from the “management” group. (Vis Reagan being given the CIA director Bush).

    4) Neither party EVER ‘undoes’ anything the other party did that advances a “3rd Way Progressive” agenda or diminishes the size of government and the flow of favors to major connected business. (Hallmarks of the “3rd Way Progressives” and Fascist Socialism). Nixon gave us the EPA, democrats expand it. Carter does the Dept of Education, Baby Bush gives us national testing NCLB. The noose always tightens.

    5) Neither party reduces the intrusiveness of government. Both push for more monitoring abilities and larger violation of any shred of remaining “privacy”.

    6) Differences that are publicly mooted are largely symbolic. Shall contraception be publicly paid for or just privately paid? Shall Federal regs allow a kid to work on his parents farm at 15 or 18? NEVER about the sanity of Federal regulation of farms at al, or why the Feds ought to have any say in contraception at all.

    The list goes on.

    That’s one of the hallmarks of a thesis that is right. You just start listing things that it could be and have a whole lot of “fits” and very few “no go”.

    What scares me the most about this?

    On the one hand I emotionally recoil from it. The lies, deception, and malevolent control attitudes it implies are offensive. On the other hand, it is more rational than the chaos of the alternative; actual open political turmoil… and it does work rather well…

    Strange, that. One half the mind in horror of the other half… Right brain vs left brain…

    At the same time I’d love to know if it really IS that way. Then, at least, I could quit worrying about it as I’d know ;-) As it is, I get to worry about “have I just dreamed up a warped fantasy to worry about”… Double Worry…

    So we have all the big power broker get togethers and all the “reaching across the table” and all the protecting of insiders and it all “just fits”… and I admire that… even as I don’t like it…

    So someone like a Ron Paul, IMHO, has no chance of winning. I think he also knows that. He’s been an elected guy long enough to know how it works. That means, IMHO, he knows he’s just trying to shift one side a little bit toward what he thinks is the right course ( not wasting time on a 3rd party) and maybe get enough ‘air time’ to get his ideas into more of the public mind. He expects to prevent more drift “3rd Way Progressive” and pull things back a bit more “Libertarian / Classical Liberal”. Not revolutionize it. He might like to get back to the way it was, but knows best he can get is a few “planks” at the convention.

    I suspect many of his supporters understand this too. It is why they don’t give up and swap to another candidate when it’s clear someone else is going to win. So even now, if I were going to make a donation to a campaign, I’d give to Ron Paul. Or I’d work for free in his organization. No expectation he would win. Don’t support all his ideas (some of them a bit ‘out there’). But looking to pull the center of the Powers That Be just a tiny bit back from the rush to “3rd Way Progressive Socialism”. To slow the movement of Republicans to Democrat Lite and Democrats to Socialists.

    Sorry to be so dismal about it, but “Reality just is. -E.M.Smith”

  33. adolfogiurfa says:

    @E.M.: The recent unsuspected measures taken about farm work, in the US, goes perfectly with the project of “land reform”, where everywhere where it has been applied the land property of locals has been replaced by the property of unknown, far and impossible to identify owner/owners, which, if followed to the “source” you find the same elite, the same insane people seeking the rule of the world through a “new world order”.
    Only through big upheavals by nature itself will open the possibility of returning to a more natural order, where it is simply stupid be the owner of everything, as we are not immortal beings, but transient beings with the urge to know who we really are and what is our purpose in this world.

  34. adolfogiurfa says:

    …and the recent strange nationalization of Repsol in Argentine, will be followed, in a few months, by the application of a “Land Reform” which it has not been applied still there. Then such a nationalization it is OK…..in a few years you will know its new owner. While the new owners of Argentinian wheat and soybean lands will be (in a few years too) the same “good guys” who up to now just marketed these commodities.

  35. R. de Haan says:

    E.M.,Thanks for your response to my posting and your exhaustive explanation of your views.
    Of course you’re right but I still think an election process should be fair and the current process isn’t fair at all. Take Maine
    http://paybackproject.com/2012/02/maddow-ron-paul-finally-robbed-in-maine-vote-fix/
    I personally gave up on Paul in the aftermath of the Maine elections. When the information came in he had been cheated out of delegates. Besides that, it was clear Santorum votes would go to Romney, closing the door on Paul for good.

    But he surprised me.
    Now after a period of relative silence where Santorum left the race and Mitt Romney was plastered all over MSM, Ron Paul is suddenly hit the news again.
    Not only has his camp fought a battle with the Maine election committee securing the delegates he was entitled to, he also won Iowa and Minnesota. Besides that Paul has more delegates than MSM and the GOP tells us he has.
    http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-02-15/politics/31062266_1_paul-s-campaign-ron-paul-vote-count
    In short, Paul is looking better and better especially now he has placed himself in a position where he can force Romney into direct debate after Gingrich is out.
    No way MSM can ignore him at the debates in a way they did in the past.

    Now there also is this poll stating that Romney can’t beat Obama but Paul can…

    I know his chances are small but I don’t think this election is over.
    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/04/25/ron-paul-s-delegate-haul-in-primaries-strengthens-hand-at-gop-convention.html

  36. p.g.sharrow says:

    The further we go, the better Ron Paul Looks. The prophesies for this period are that the Obamanation will be replaced by a wise old man. Some how I don’t see Romney as a wise old man. pg

  37. R. de Haan says:

    Just have a look at this “reality check about the delegates”.
    http://ronpaulnews.net/2012/04/reality-check-truth-about-delegate.html

  38. adolfogiurfa says:

    @P.G. What is your source of those prophesies?

  39. E.M.Smith says:

    @R. de Haan:

    While I’d like to see it happen, IMHO, The Machine will not let it happen. They have many generations of experience at this kind of thing, and Ron Paul is “playing by the rules”. That will handicap him as they play by their own set of rules…

    Yes, there are encouraging signs in what you posted. But the MSM et. al. are all over Romney as the presumptive winner. With his delegate count, at best we can have a brokered convention. Guess who “manages” a brokered convention…

    So I’m having another of my Lt. vs Rt. brain arguments. One “wants” and the other reasons it can not be…

    BTW, news flow tonight was about an EPA ‘District manager’ idiot saying he wanted to “Crucify the Oil Companies”… That will P.O. a major section of American Industry that depends on those jobs… AND a lot of folks who want that industry pumping oil and gas…

    Meanwhile, Russia is playing “The Great Game” while Obama is clueless what’s really going on.

    http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-04-09/news/31311454_1_russian-defense-ministry-military-action-dmitry-rogozin

    Well, maybe not entirely clueless. I’m sure he gets daily briefings… then just ignores them as it’s not part of the Watermelon World Agenda…

    So most likely about June / July we’ll have a new war breaking out in Iran. Russia will be overrunning Georgia to join the fun (and maybe reclaiming Georgia in the process…) and Obama will either be throwing Israel under the bus via doing nothing OR going toe to toe with Russians somewhere near Iran / Afghanistan. With 4 months to the election.

    In that context a “we ought to just come home” Ron Paul message will not ‘resonate’ very well while a “Wag The Dog” is a distinct possible. Especially since we have Obama on video saying he’ll take care of Putin after the election…

    Oh, and Spain just got a downgrade from S&P by TWO grades. Spanish bond yields are rising to over 6% and Germany has said that Spain and Italy are too big to save. The newscaster then added that Germany was starting to look a bit weak / problematic too. (This was on a Business / finance show).

    So US companies are putting up great earnings reports (as they jacked up prices while laying off folks) and individual companies spike up on earnings, then things drift back down later.

    Another show fretted over the net outflows from mutual funds while another lamented the lack of “retail investors” in the market. Another found that the net outflows were not going into other markets. Folks were sucking out money to live on. Between those burned by the, IMHO, manipulated markets actions during and post crash (hedge funds with no uptick rule, no check on available stock hypothecated – just unlimited shorting, and essentially computer driven bear market raids); and those with no job living on whats left of their savings; and the 50% of new graduates with no job (so NOT signing up for retirement plans / investments): It all points to a market with institutional card sharks playing against each other while the retail folks have seen no reason to go back to the table. Cashed out chips and leaving.

    ALL of that is a terrible combination. Highly unsettling in so many ways. From inter-generational instabilities to a disaffected Boomer generation cashing out. Stir in a new collapse in Europe and a South West Asian war and it’s just not a pretty picture.

    I sure hope something stops those dominoes from falling…

    “But hope is not a strategy. -E.M.Smith” …

  40. adolfogiurfa says:

    @E.M.: You forgot something that many of you have not fully realized: When in your media it is repeated that complaint about “spending our taxes”, that is not real, as what is being spent is worst than that: it is money from credit, from loans. Your taxes´money perhaps does not reach the 50% of what is being spent. That attitude is plainly suicidal.

  41. Pascvaks says:

    VOTE For Ron Paul!!!! (FOR EVERYTHING ON THE BLOODY BALLOT)
    Can’t let a good thought die without saying it outloud at least once, here goes nothing:

    You like Ron Paul? Then vote for him for your representative and senators, ad infinitum. Fill the House and Senate with “Ron Pauls”. Don’t have one handy? Write the guys/gals that come closest to the mark that are running for your vote and tell them what you want from them –try to keep it under 10K words if possible and don’t use ‘Links’ (Pollywogs don’t ‘Link’;-). Promise you’ll support them with your time and a little donation if they’re the BEST DAMN RON PAUL CLONE ON THE BALLOT. Also promise that you’ll ruin them with your last dying breath and swear your children to Vendetta against their families if they don’t live up to your Very High Expectations. Want to change the Country and the World? Vote for Ron Paul! I’m serious!

    It doesn’t matter who the stupid Republican is that’s in the White House for the next 4 years! Romny’s really better than most we’ve seen. It’s the integrity of every other elected official that you vote for that counts more. If none of your candidates measure up for Dog Catcher or Coroner or Councilman or Mayor or Whatever, write in “Ron Paul” as your voting ghasp of last resort. Ron Paul is like Paul Bunyan or Abe Lincoln, the myth has out grown the real man, and he ain’t even dead yet –which says a lot about the real guy too.

    VOTE FOR RON PAUL FOR EVERYTHING!!!

  42. Pascvaks says:

    You can tell a real Ron Paul when you get one. Bite them hard between your teeth, they never scream.
    What’s a real Ron Paul look like? Well, they have a certain look in their eyes that can’t be duplicated by a phoney.
    What’s a real Ron Paul Sound like? In a word, “The Last Judgement!”
    Make Every Vote Count! Vote for a REAL Ron Paul, EVERY TIME!!!

    http://media.photobucket.com/image/Ron%20Paul%20Posters/Archangelboy79/Archangel%20Private/Ron_Paul_Captain_America.jpg

  43. E.M.Smith says:

    On Al Jazeera news there was a report that La Pen had declined to give her support to Sarkozy.

    Without it, he loses. Look like the socialist is headed for a win.

    Like the poster, and the sentiment, BTW ;-)

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