Treasuries Tuesday (on Friday…)

Yes, I know it’s Friday… still trying to get “back in the habit” on regular financial postings. As Treasuries look like they have ‘rolled over’ it needs posting, regardless of which day (and even if the right time to do it was a few days back).

Charts here come from Bigcharts.com. You are encouraged to go there, learn to set the controls (on the left hand side) yourself, and make your own charts. It is a skill well worth developing and then you don’t need to depend on me to make a posting every day.

The prior version of this posting is here:

http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2012/07/18/treasuries-tuesday-2/

Live chart of selected bonds

Live chart of selected bonds

TLH  -  10 to 20 Year US Treasuries
AGG  -  Aggregate of many maturities bond fund.
SPY  -  S&P 500 benchmark
MUB  -  US "AMT-Free" Municipal Bonds.
IEF  -  7 to 10 Year US Treasuries
TIP  -  Treasury Inflation Protected Securities TIPS
LQD  -  "High Quality" aka Liquid Corporate Bonds
TLT  -  20+ Year US Treasuries
WIP  -  World Inflation Protected Securities

Bigcharts Bond Chart Example comparing S&P 500 with TIP (Treasuring Inflation Protected Securities ), WIP World Inflation Protected Securities, and TLT Long Duration Treasuries (all ETFs).

I’ve preserved a copy of the chart as it stands today for “future reference”:

Treasuries Chart 10 Aug 2012

Treasuries Chart 10 Aug 2012

Interpretation

We have “price below the SMA stack” and RSI doing “lower highs” after a ‘near 80′ event. MACD is now ‘below zero’ and with red on top while DMI / ADX has red on top and with ADX at ‘about 20′ it is modest strength move (though bonds are lower volatility so it is a fairly strong indication for bonds).

All that says “Time to be out of bonds”.

I’d suggested to cut holdings in half on a prior posting. Now I’d move to being ‘fully out’ of bond positions. As to “be in what?”, that’s going to take a bit more work. Copper was continuing to drop on weak China data. Stocks have been in a slow “melt up” with tradable ripple. At any rate, exit bonds, stack up some cash, and we’ll see what else is a reasonable idea. Talk of inflation and more QE makes me think traditional inflation hedges might be worth investigating.

Other Sources

Remember, too, that under the “Stock Charts” category (right side of this page) there are a variety of selected charts with particular collections of tickers in them. Including this one for bonds and currencies:

http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2011/12/20/bonds-overview-charts/

One of them being the “One Stop” quick chart of the basics:

http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2012/06/04/a-very-useful-one-stop-investment-chart/

which includes longer descriptions of the tickers here, along with more and different tickers including some in other currencies.

Charts here may be a bit more variable from week to week as things of interest pop up.

Some Links

A variety of ETFs, including bond ETFs, are at the iShares site. Choose the particular bond fund off of the “fixed income” tab:

http://us.ishares.com/home.htm

There also exists a variety of bond funds at the SPDR site

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
This entry was posted in Economics, Trading, and Money and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

One Response to Treasuries Tuesday (on Friday…)

  1. Sandy McClintock says:

    ” traditional inflation hedges” I presume things like gold and physical assets? I have been looking at mortgages as an option (in Australia). It appears there are two situations
    (1) loans to home owners which traditionally were low risk and therefore low interest rates.
    (2) loans to commercial borrowers like a builder who needs cash to develop say a 4 million dollar property for sale – these are in theory riskier, and therefore the builder is charged interest rates of 6% to 11% for a 12 month mortgage. Typically, these loans represent <60% of the property valuation. As a lender, one can find interest rates between 7.5% and 10%, which on the face of it look reasonably attractive in unstable times.

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