Kyoto Limping To An End

The Kyoto protocol is slowly limping to an end. The “parties” agreed to agree on a future agreement to be negotiated to extend the agreed agreement to some unknown future date to be agreed on later… that hasn’t been delivered…

So there’s some “controversy” over the actual expiration in 2012.

Some folks are saying “we agreed to agree so it continues in force” while others are saying “Contract said 2012. No new contract. It’s over.” I have not found any clear indication of the actual legal status (but expect something ‘dramatic’ to be attempted at COP(out)18 in Qatar where the tax payer funded party gets underway just after Thanksgiving Feast is over.

So while the various UN Parasites suck down high end drinks and food (and tons of CO2 each to get to exotic fun destinations for their pleasures) and worry obsessively about what kind of light bulb you like; expect the news flow to turn to how the weather had gone wild and something BIG has to be done NOW (especially if it involves moving money from the EU and USA to China and the Former USSR). As the EU is in the process of slow financial implosion and as the USA would need to borrow the money from China to pay it to China, I’m not seeing much reason for enthusiasm by those countries. Yet the True Believers in “Global Warming Catastrophe” will not look beyond the thing immediately in front of their noses (most likely a nice Brie, some Chardonnay, and a bit of Russian Caviar on a crisp…) and will push for “Something Must Be Done” (never mind that nothing CAN be done to cure a non-existent problem via methods that do not work).

Some Background

Sometimes you find things in the strangest places. Like this list of the folks sucking up the goodies from the Public Trough:

https://barryonenergy.wordpress.com/2012/03/04/cop17-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly/

The COP includes (see Bodies for the function of each committee) (3):
• CMP – Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol
• SBSTA – Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice
• SBI – Subsidiary Body for Implementation
• AWG-KP – Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol
• AWG-LCA – Ad hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention
• ADP – Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action
• Bureau of the COP
• Compliance Committee
• CDM EB – Executive Board of the Clean Development Mechanism
• JISC – Joint Implementation Supervisory Committee
• TEC – Technology Executive Committee
• LEG – Least Developed Countries Expert Group
• CGE – Consultative Group of Experts on National Communications
• Secretariat
• United Nations institutional linkage
• GEF – Global Environment Facility
• IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• AFB – Adaptation Fund Board
• TC-GCF – Transitional Committee for the Green Climate Fund

These resource suckers multiply so much they make rabbits look slow…

It would be interesting to figure out the total $ (or Euros) sucked up in any given year by all this nonsense….

It also includes one of the most bizarre “org charts” I’ve ever seen:

COP Bodies

COP Bodies

Bad as that might be, having a gaggle of mindless bureaucrats sucking down the goodies on your dime is pretty much to be expected. More interesting to me is why Son Of Kyoto is not going to work. It all comes down to China & Russia, IMHO, but honorable mention would go to Brazil and India.

This chart kind of shows why (from that same link, though they picked it up from the EPA per their link:

GHG Emissions by country / region by year

GHG Emissions by country / region by year

Notice that the USA is NOT the bulk of that graph, and more importantly, our “growth” of emissions is modest at best while the huge growth is “not in the USA” (nor in the EU). Now notice that the year marking ends in 2002 and the last data is from 2006. Gee, haven’t we reduced emissions since then? (Recession and all those energy intensive industries packing up and moving to China).

Here’s a more recent graph for up to 2008 for fossil fuels and ‘some industrial gasses’ from:

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html

Global GHG from fuels and Industrial by country to 2008

Global GHG from fuels and Industrial by country to 2008

Again, the USA is not the big lump it once was. China and “Other” are both bigger and, taken together, are over 1/2 of all emissions. THEY are the ones who must agree to cut back if anything is to be reduced. The USA at 19% and the EU at 13% are just not going to make any difference. (IFF cut in half, that’s 9.5% + 6.5% or 16% globally. That will be completely swamped by growth in China and “other”. Look again at the growth at the right edge of the first chart… China and that black chunk at the top are the fastest growth.)

What I find spectacularly illustrated by these two charts is just how putting on “Carbon Limits” on some nations (EU and Industrialized Nations) simply moves the growth to those exempted (along with the jobs, wealth, and industrial production). We said it would happen, and it’s pretty darned easy to see it in action. That, and the $16 Trillion debt we’ve racked up trying to live on a credit card without the industrial production here to create wealth to pay for it.)

The Problem for Son Of Kyoto

It’s pretty simple. Kyoto was about moving wealth from the USA and EU to the Former Soviet Union (FSU), China, and other “lesser developed nations”. As the EU and USA are no longer possessed of that wealth, there isn’t any to move.

It was about moving production and industrialization TO lesser developed nations (to let them ‘catch up’…). As that’s a ‘done deal’ there’s nothing left to move, really. China has won. We’re in the end game of the hand.

At MOST, the USA can lever more onto the Chinese Credit Card (provided they agree to the scam), which is just that much more which will be repudiated (either directly and blatantly in some kind of political ‘dust up’, or more likely, via the subtle repudiation of high inflation rates.)

At MOST, the EU can make more promises it doesn’t deliver. Germany is nearing “tapped out” just carrying Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain on it’s back. The EU collectively can’t pony up any more without complete collapse (and, IMHO, might already be beyond the point of no return financially). “Green Jobs” in Spain have resulted in an entire generation of “youth” that live on the welfare of others, with unemployment over 50% in that demographic. At that point the end is pretty much baked in.

Both the EU and the USA have a “Demographic Bomb” exploding right now, with way too many people expecting to retire on moneys to be extracted from a younger demographic that:

a) Is physically too small to carry that many retired people.

b) Largely is unemployed now anyway.

c) Is going to inherit an economy gutted of industrial capacity.

d) Will be trying to do that WHILE carrying a crushing debt load.

For the USA the “excess entitlements” is somewhere over $200 Trillion. Nobody really knows the number. It simply can not be paid. For the EU it’s just as bad. (Worse, really, as countries like France and Greece are doing “exactly the wrong things” to establish the production of goods and services needed to support their retiring masses.)

Furthermore, Russia is interested in growing their economy and industrial production. That giant drop in emissions as the FSU collapsed is not permanent. They do not believe in a warming world and are preparing for cooling. So as long as the EU was willing to bribe them with a payoff for that ‘reduction’, they were ‘in’. As the EU can’t keep paying, that bribe is going to be hard pressed to continue (which implies a Russian Federation departure. Especially if “emissions” start to be accounted to the producer of the fuels, not to the place they are used. That has been proposed, BTW.)

China? What are they thinking? Well, other than “Laughing all the way to the bank” and encouraging us to continue cutting our own economic throats:

http://www.chinaglobaltrade.com/article/us-china-trade-news-12-08-2011-update-kyoto-pact

US-China Trade in the News 12-08-2011 Update: The Kyoto Pact

The expiration of the Kyoto Protocol was “hot” news this week. An international treaty, the Kyoto Protocol is aimed at fighting global warming with the goal of achieving the “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.” It is due to expire in 2012. Developing nations, led by China, India and Brazil, say another round of commitments under Kyoto is essential to keep the climate talks on track. China and India had no targets under that treaty and since have become two of the world’s three biggest polluters. The U.S. never ratified the pact. Meanwhile, the European Union, which has done the most to limit carbon-dioxide emissions since Kyoto came into force, has said it won’t extend the pact unless ministers sign on to a “road map” setting a date for all nations – including big developing ones – to take on mandatory targets.

Elsewhere, the argument concerning solar power continued. American solar panel manufacturers won a round against China when the United States International Trade Commission reached a preliminary conclusion that solar panel manufacturers were being harmed by imports from China. Following that decision, Democratic lawmakers wrote a letter to President Barack Obama urging an investigation into Chinese solar imports, which they say don’t fairly compete with domestic products. China voiced deep concerns regarding the investigation. All this, and more, in today’s US-China trade news update.

So China wants “more of the same”… EU paying and them getting a free ride. The EU wants to rope them into the same limits (and strangled economic growth).

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-04/kyoto-pledges-must-be-extended-past-2012-if-china-to-adopt-a-binding-deal.html

China Sets Conditions for Binding Climate Deal
By Ewa Krukowska – Dec 4, 2011 5:45 AM PT

China set out its conditions for adopting a binding post-2020 greenhouse-gas commitment as part of a global deal, demanding an extension of current pledges by industrialized countries under the Kyoto Protocol beyond 2012.

Developing nations should be allowed to stick to voluntary targets to limit pollution until a legally-binding treaty that could take effect after 2020, Xie Zhenhua, the head of the Chinese delegation to the United Nations climate talks, said after he arrived in Durban, South Africa, for the second week of the conference. China’s consent for the shift to mandatory goals also hinges on climate aid from richer countries and a review of actions taken by 2015, he said.

So China wants not only to win the economic war and have another (nearly) decade to achieve stable global dominance of manufacturing and trade (THEN agree to a ‘lock in’…) but also wants to continue to be PAID for the privilege.

IMHO, the biggest thing of interest in COP-18 will be watching the players and seeing, through their actions and claims, what their hidden agendas might be.

In Conclusion

So we can see here the reflection of the economic ‘facts on the ground’. Industry fleeing to countries that are exempt. FSU and China agreeing to play as long as they are paid. (AND China demanding an exemption). The EU and USA having massive economic ‘erosion’ and productivity flight to China (and others). Western debt rocketing out of sight as wealth creation turns into “eating your seed corn”.

That’s the legacy of Kyoto.

It’s also the reason that Son Of Kyoto either will not happen, or if it does arrive, will not be honored. It simply is not possible for the EU and USA to pay China and Russia to play. Neither of us has the money. China and Russia will tire of “pretty paper” that doesn’t buy anything. As the debt repudiation (that must happen one way or another due to the Demographic Bomb) hits, the whole thing unravels.

One can hope that these realities will be recognized at COP-18 as China and Russia realize that the money will not be coming and that the “Free Ride” exemption is no longer acceptable. (Even if they are promised the money and the free ride, that just means no reduction in emissions will happen and they will be paid with worthless paper, so still no result.)

But the show will be fun to watch…

The entire structure of Kyoto was a wealth transfer from Rich nations to Poor nations. It was to hobble the west and enrich those invested in the planned money transfer and industrial movement. That game has played out. It’s a done deal. So not enough left in the ‘host nations’ for the parasites dinner… That, IMHO, is why Son Of Kyoto will be a ‘brain fart’ at best. Full of sound and fury signifying nothing.

But the catering will be excellent…

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
This entry was posted in AGW and Weather News Events, Political Current Events and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

18 Responses to Kyoto Limping To An End

  1. Alex says:

    Is it called Conference of the Parties because of the expensive annual parties the conference members enjoy every year, year after year with each year’s partying being held in a different country?

    Last COP I calculated that the total money spent by all partiers reaches the amount of some 50 million dollars, 25,000 partiers spending 20,000 dollars each in hotels, food, planes, trains and taxis, runs up to 50 million. So many children dying of hunger every day….

  2. John F. Hultquist says:

    “But the show will be fun to watch…”
    I’ve got a supply of popcorn stored away along with a few other necessities.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~

    Think a link to this one is in order:
    http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2012/09/14/demographic-bomb-and-us-debt-explosion/

  3. omanuel says:

    I agree, the United States was betrayed.

    AGW was never about global climate. It has now completed its primary mission: “The entire structure of Kyoto was a wealth transfer from Rich nations to Poor nations. It was to hobble the west and enrich those invested in the planned money transfer and industrial movement. That game has played out. It’s a done deal.”

    Here’s my conclusion today, two days before the Presidential election:

    http://omanuel.wordpress.com/about/#comment-1702

  4. Gary says:

    Question: is representative democracy the reason why the West is so dumb? Along with all it’s benefits does it have the fatal flaw of self-destroying impulse built in? Or maybe it’s a matter of scale?

  5. omanuel says:

    Gary,

    The USSR outsmarted Allied leaders and leaders of the Allied scientific community at the end of the Second World War.

    The old USSR emerged as the United Nations on 24 Oct 1945.

    Here’s the rest of the story: http://omanuel.wordpress.com/, http://omanuel.wordpress.com/about/, . . . http://omanuel.wordpress.com/about/#comment-1702

    With deep regrets,
    - Oliver K. Manuel
    Former NASA Principal
    Investigator for Apollo

  6. JP Miller says:

    Read Socrates and other Greek philosophers for their opinions on this matter. For the last ~120 years representative democracy has gotten the better of other forms of government by “outsmarting” the others. There’s reason to wonder if that will continue. It’s a bit blunt to say the West got fat and lazy, but there’s a core of truth there. Once (most of) the non-democratic governments realized military force would not be successful (WWI/ WWII), they finally smarted up and realized economic force needed to be used. Clever those Chinese; Russians, not so much. Now, they (non-democratic nations) are gaining ground in ways that seem irreversible — and probably are, sad to say. Despite what many might say, the US was (and still is) “the bright, shining city on the hill.” Our country did more good for its own citizens and for millions of others than any country in history because of the political and economic philosophies on which it was founded. Those philosophies degraded over time, with the result being policies that have eroded our country’s ability to continue to do good for its own citizens, which eventually means an inability to do good for others.
    Democracy does not have to be stupid. But, when our citizens get zero education (grammar school, high school) on what makes one important aspect of our country work well (the economic system), what can you expect? Markets, price, profit: these are not difficult concepts to teach in the conrete (i.e., Junior Achievement), but they are not. I never understood how American education totally skipped that entire lesson. Never taught it. Ever. Why?

  7. Petrossa says:

    Kyoto is in full force in the EU. For them it’s still legally binding because they made it into an EU directive. So even if no one else does, the EU do. Connie Hedegaard ( EU commisioner of environment) is a rabid econut and she will stay the course consequences be damned.
    Energy is being forced up in price, industry exported, or exports itself due to absurd regulations, massive layoffs as a consequence.
    All for the better of our grandchildren it seems. How being broke is good for our grandchildren beats me, but to them it seems to make sense.

  8. Pingback: Kyoto Limping To An End | The Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF)

  9. adolfogiurfa says:

    @JP Democracy was cyclical in Greece, it never lasted more than 200 years to be substituted by tyranny or monarchy. The cycle is closed and we are at the turn of the screw.

  10. adolfogiurfa says:

    @omanuel: Childs play power games. As silliest as possible. Real evil power it is neither childish nor entertain foolish ideologies, only silly servants are expected to believe them and to follow them.

  11. J Martin says:

    Petrossa said on 5 November 2012 at 7:30 am

    “Kyoto is in full force in the EU. For them it’s still legally binding because they made it into an EU directive. ~~ Energy is being forced up in price, industry exported, or exports itself due to absurd regulations, massive layoffs as a consequence.”

    That could all change, if Abdussamatov and Landscheidt are correct and the decline in temperatures that we should see in the coming years starts to bite with power shortages in the depths of winter. The faster, steeper and deeper the temperature drop, the sooner ‘the people’ will regret allowing the co2 blinkered greens to ruin good societies.

    Qatar will simply be an event where a number of politicians and agencies advertise to the world how brainwashed and foolish they are. As you say, nothing they say or agree can be paid for and will have absolutely no effect on co2 increases or temperatures.

    Any serious drop in temperatures will be the death knell for the co2 fanboys religion and we can get back to (re)building our economies. The UK by then will be a second world country, somewhere between the current definition of the first world and the third world.

    Interesting times for the historians for sure, less so for the rest of us.

  12. adolfogiurfa says:

    @J Martin: Kyoto was just one way of many to reach the goal of “Global Governance”; which will be attained no matter how much cold or warm there is. BTW it is not called neither “Global Warming” or “Climate change”, now it is called “Sustainability” and many good hearted people believe it. The only hope is that these people ignore natural laws and, consequently, ignore that their goal it is not right in front of them: there are no straight movements in nature; when they think they get you right in the middle of its target, the same gun will be pointing at their back heads: Things go surprisingly around….

  13. Pingback: Question – What happened to Kyoto? « Greenhouse Bullcrap

  14. E.M.Smith says:

    @J. Martin:

    Don’t know if you intended it, or not, but it is increasingly accurate to call the UK a ‘second world’ country:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_World

    Those are nations of the FSU and related areas dominated by them and by communism….

    As you look around at the rampant Socialism / Welfare State in the UK, and the increasing dependence on Russian Fuel, well, it does kind of fit the pattern….

    Watching the changes happening to weather, I think we’re well on our way to a 2020 Damn Cold. Just don’t know if we will get cold enough fast enough to have it hurting inside 3 years (by 2015). I think so, as the solar cycle turns and we fall off a solar cliff; but it’s just not guaranteed given that the lunar / ocean coupling can take a few years to change.

    @Adolfo:

    You are surprised that Herr Bloomberg of the Soda Nazi camp is supportive of a socialist driven agenda of central control? Who knew…. /sarcoff>;

    FYI, Herr Bloomberg has decided that any soda over 16 ounces is verbotten in NYC and has his eye on micromanagment of every aspect of your life… That kind of power mad Little Hitler will of course be in love with the power delivered to Central Control by the AGW agenda. Shorter term, he clearly will be looking to get some Federal Feel Good Money from Obama… and knows what to butter or grease…

    @J.P.

    Ever since the “Progressive Era” of F.D.R. we’ve had increasing centralization of education in Washington. (First to the states, then the “Dept. of Ed” was created to suck that to D.C.). It was, and is, a “Progressive” creation to facilitate indoctrination of the masses. (See one of the planks of the Communist Manifesto) so hardly a surprise that no effort would go into teaching Capitalism.

    While I got a rather good education from our Public Education System back in the ’60s and ’70s, that was just a transitional phase. As of now, we have mandated P.C. Directives to local education to bring it in line with the Party Line. At the spouse’s school, the librarian was directed to remove about 700 books from the shelf as “they were too old”. Looking at them, it looks like “Not PC enough” was the actual criterion. After all, one of them had a white family with a Mom, Dad, and two kids. Mom doing things like cooking… How could you possible tolerate THAT kind of thing in s SCHOOL! /sarcoff>; As it was to teach things like “pot”, “pan”, “food”, “shoe”, “hat”, etc. I don’t think anyone was noticing that Mom had an apron and Dad had a tie… But P.C. is as P.C. does…

    The new books have things like “Johny has Two Moms” and every family scene must be “diverse” (even if a genetic impossibility at times…)

    So why is Economics not in school? Just look at the history of who, when, and where originated mandatory public education at the Federal level…

    @Petrossa:

    True Ideologues are never impressed by existence proofs to the contrary nor by rational thought. First comes The Belief, then all else must fall in line…

    So “we must all be equal” is first. That it ends up being “equal in worse poverty” is no reason not to embrace the ideology…

    So all you need do to understand their ‘process’ is to list the key ‘talking points’. All else is either rejected, or bent to fit that narrative. Easy, no?… BTW, do not let facts, history, truth, wisdom, insight, knowledge, or reason stand against this process. They, too, can be rejected and / or bent; as long as the result matches the ideology, all is well…

    So:

    “Democracy is good”. (Never mind that even since Plato it’s been known to fail in about 50 years do to the ‘tyranny of the masses’ and underinvestment – i.e. eating your seed corn.)

    “In-equality is bad”. (Never mind that the party functionaries are exempted. Ignore that “propensity to invest” is too low if we are all equal, so underinvestment happens and we collectively descend into poverty.)

    “Government can give you things”. (Never mind that first they must take them from you to give them back, minus a cut.)

    “Business / Capitalism is evil”. (Never mind that the capitalist system has brought more good to more people than any other system in history; and that the history of collectivist centrally planned systems is dismal failure.)

    Etc. etc. …

    @Gary:

    THE basic problem with Democracy is that the masses are not prone to invest, but to consume. Further, they are not prone to preservation of “minority rights” but to “consensus” domination.

    Heard on the radio from a black man: “Democracy? Don’t talk to me about Democracy. Democracy is two wolves and sheep voting on what is for lunch!”.

    That’s the best summation of the failure of Democracy to preserve minority rights that I have ever found. Once 51% are Muslim, YOU get Sharia law. Once 51% are one race, any other can find slavery. Once 51% are poorer, they will vote to impoverish the other 49%.

    Collectively, we will vote for “ruin of the commons” every time. Beggar thy neighbor and kill and eat his cows. Unfortunately, he is eating your cows at the same time and next year nobody has any meat nor milk.

    That is the reason we are a Republic and not a Democracy. The constant push by the Looney Side Of Left for “More Democracy” is precisely to bring about the end of the Republic and to bring “equality” to all. Unfortunately, that “equality” is equality in abject poverty and squalor. It is just how Democracy always ends.

    There is a reason that Plato listed Democracy as one of the BAD forms of government…

    BTW, the Progressive Movement and F.D.R. / Wilson et. al. did great damage to the Republic in moving us to ever more Direct Democracy. We now elect the Senate and the President / V.P. who were originally NOT elected. That broke the balance of power between states rights and the public. Ever since we’ve steadily voted for more “stuff” from the Feds and less ‘rights’ for any “other” agencies. The result is the slow bankruptcy of the Federal Government and the faster bankruptcy of the States (and counties, here in California). We removed the prudent ‘checks and balances’ and moved to the ‘tyranny of the masses’ “Voting for themselves the largess of the public purse.”

    This has all been known since at least the Enlightenment….

    Why isn’t it taught in school? See that above discussion…

    @Alex:

    ;-)

    Maybe we need a logo with a COP-18 wearing a Party Hat and with champagne bubbles ;-)

  15. p.g.sharrow says:

    @Adolfo & EMSmith; I have just posted a cleaned up version of Gorzell’s letter to me about “Sustainability or Agenda 21 on my blog:
    http://pgtruspace.wordpress.com/2012/11/05/agenda-21-or-sustainability/
    Keith wishes the greatest possible dissemination. pg

  16. omanuel says:

    Thanks for sharing this information, pg. I posted this comment on your web site:
    http://pgtruspace.wordpress.com/2012/11/05/agenda-21-or-sustainability/#comment-656

    I will pass it along. Here is my analysis of the 2012 Presidential election: http://omanuel.wordpress.com/about/#comment-1710

    With deep regrets,
    - Oliver K. Manuel
    Former NASA Principal
    Investigator for Apollo

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