Throw Obama Off The Fiscal Cliff

So I’m looking at the news, and it’s all a load of hand wringing over the Fiscal Cliff.

Regularly it’s parroted that the economy would be destroyed, depression is assured, and the end is neigh if we don’t prevent falling off the “Fiscal Cliff”.

This comes largely from a bunch of economic projections that are based on Keynesian ideals of excess government expenditures (over revenue) being somehow guaranteed.

So that got me wondering “What IS the Fiscal Cliff?” and even “Why does it matter?”.

The Wiki on it seems to have a reasonable write up of the facts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_fiscal_cliff

It also includes an interesting graph (that is somewhat hard to interpret as the labels are minimal).

Deficit vs time under present vs Fiscal Cliff scenarios

Deficit vs time under present vs Fiscal Cliff scenarios

Original Image

So the blue area is what happens under the Fiscal Cliff, while the grey / dark are what happens if the budget reductions (“Sequestration”) are prevented and Bush Tax Cuts or similar are continued.

On a top level look, it looks to me like both are an ongoing deficit. So my fist instinct it to take the lesser deficit. That’s “driving off the cliff”…

Looking inside the details shows that the ‘cuts’ in spending are not really much at all. Most of the change comes out of higher taxes. While I’d hate to see higher taxes, The People have spoken and selected loads of spending, so might as well let them see what that feels like as taxes.

For the sequestration part, the wiki doesn’t really show all that much bad, IMHO.

The spending reduction elements of the fiscal cliff are primarily contained within the Budget Control Act of 2011, which directed that both defense and non-defense discretionary spending[note 3] be reduced by “sequestration” if Congress was unable to agree on other spending cuts of similar size. Congress was unable to reach agreement and therefore the sequestrations are expected to take effect in early 2013. The scope of the law excludes major mandatory programs such as Social Security and Medicare.

On the one hand, exemption of entitlements assures that the real core problem of growth of entitlements is not addressed. OTOH, it means you can’t be accused of ‘granny off the cliff’.

The effect on both defense and non-defense discretionary spending will be significant if the cliff is not avoided. Cuts totaling $110 billion per year will be applied from 2013 to 2022, split evenly ($55 billion each) to defense and non-defense discretionary spending. For scale, discretionary funding for 2011 totaled $1,277 billion: budget authority of $712 billion for defense and funding totaling $566 billion for non-defense activities.

Thats ALL? $110 Billion out of several $Trillion? Chump change.

During 2013, defense and non-defense discretionary spending would be maintained around 2012 levels due to the sequester. However, the spending begins to rise thereafter, but not at the pace projected prior to the sequester. In other words, the trajectory of spending increases is reduced, but spending is not frozen at 2012 levels. Defense and non-defense discretionary spending increases from 2013–2021 would be about 1.5% annually, significantly below the prior decade.

For example, according to the CBO Historical Tables, defense spending (including overseas contingency operations for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan) grew from $295 billion in 2000 to $700 billion in 2011, an annual growth rate of 8.2%. Non-defense discretionary spending grew at a 6.6% annual rate during that time, from $320 billion to $646 billion.

So we’ve got somewhere around $400 Billion of defense spending on a couple of wars that could be junked and still have plenty of military? As I’m no fan of shoving money down the rat holes of wars, I’m not seeing the downside here.

More problematic, IMHO, is the large tax hike.

Baseline projection. The CBO has been publishing baseline projections since 1985. Under “the baseline”, tax cuts are allowed to expire and spending cuts are implemented in 2013, resulting in higher tax revenues plus lower spending, deficits, debt and interest for the next decade and beyond. Future deficits would be reduced from an estimated 8.5% of GDP in 2011 to 1.2% by 2021. Revenues would rise towards 24% GDP, versus the historical average 18% GDP.

So we’re talking a roughly 6% of GDP tax hike. Personally, I don’t see that happening. As we’ve seen before, no matter what the tax rate, folks just find ways (even by just not working) to avoid tax revenues being over 18% of GDP. So nominally, it’s a huge tax hike. In reality, I think revenues would not rise all that much (though likely not for the reasons the politicians expect).

Some Details

From the wiki, again:

Current laws leading to the fiscal cliff

The following provisions of current law are most involved in the fiscal cliff:

Expiration of the Obama tax cuts provided for in the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010;

Across-the-board spending cuts (“sequestration”) to most discretionary programs as directed by the Budget Control Act of 2011;

Reversion of the Alternative Minimum Tax thresholds to their 2000 tax year levels;

So Obama gets a load of tax hikes. We get what is really just a ‘spending slowdown’, not quite a freeze. Then we get a load of folks hit with the AMT. I suspect that might make a few more folks willing to vote for ‘tax cutting’ Republicans at the mid term election…

Expiration of measures delaying the Medicare Sustainable Growth Rate from going into effect (the “doc fix”), most recently extended by the Middle Class Tax Relief and Job Creation Act of 2012 (MCTRJCA);

Expiration of the 2% Social Security payroll tax cut, most recently extended by MCTRJCA;

Social Security gets more funding so lasts longer. I’m good with that. Doctors start to realize that maybe voting Democrat was not such a good deal for them. Workers, nationwide, see some of the costs of the socialism they vote for.

The downside is?… Some folks pay more taxes? Grumpy doctors?

Expiration of federal unemployment benefits, most recently extended by MCTRJCA and
New taxes imposed by the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act and the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010.

Some number of folks comfortably on The Dole get kicked off. OK, that’s good for Obama how?

Without new legislation, these provisions will automatically go into effect on January 1 or 2, 2013, except for the Alternative Minimum Tax growth, which may be changed retroactively. Some provisions will increase taxes (the expiration of the Bush and FICA payroll tax cuts and the new Affordable Care tax and AMT thresholds) while others will reduce spending (sequestration, expiration of unemployment benefits and implementation of the Medicare SGR).

So we’ve got all of 2 months. During holiday season?

Frankly, were I running the Republicans, I’d propose a couple of perfectly reasonable alternatives, and let Obama and the Democrats shout them down, and let things slowly go into effect.

Just be ready to point out that YOU wanted to keep taxes low in your proposal (continued tax rates) and eliminate the horrible AMT (in your proposal) and fund the military (in your proposal) and those Horrible Democrats wouldn’t do it.

Regularly remind folks that had they voted for Republicans none of this would have happened, as your plan clearly says so.

As the taxes hit folks, remind them that YOU are the party of lower taxes.

In the intervening couple of years, at least you have a modest spending restraint and lower borrowing / deficit for the future.

What About The Recession?

We’ve had them before, we’ll have them again. It would pretty much show that Obamanomics wasn’t very good at fixing things.

When the folks scream, point out “He Won, talk to him.”… and remind them of your proposals that would have avoided this. Remember that you can make your proposal as attractive to voters as you like. Since the Democrats will NEVER let it happen, make it a political wish list and advertise it. Free puppies and ice cream for everyone, you name it. Make the discussion about the Obama reality vs your ‘vision’ of rainbows and ice cream…

Frankly, having the next 2 years of recession would likely be worth it for the mid-term chastening.

Could it ‘backfire’ on Republicans? I’m sure the Democrats would try to paint it that way. However just pointing out that the deficit spending rate is down, the tax rates are now more in line with Democrat desires, and asking “Would you rather have the higher taxes AND the deficit?” ought to cover it.

Frankly, the major downside I see is just that the Bush Tax Cuts go away. More taxes will always be spent. It is, in essence, an admission that attempting to cut spending via income reduction was just ignored by both Republicans AND Democrats who ran out and spent anyway. As that is a fact, having that spending recognized in politically unpopular taxes instead of easier to hide borrowing seems like the better choice. It is unlikely ether that the tax cuts can be preserved, or that they could ever be restored in the future, so letting them go is a bother; but likely better than more Chinese Credit Card.

So tax everyone and everything. Tax them until they scream and bleed. Maybe then folks will realize that smaller government is a better choice… and vote for it.

In short, looking at the Fiscal Cliff, and the history of what the last 20 years of politicians have done to the economy and spending, it looks like choosing to just let the sequestration happen is a better choice than trusting the politicians to fix anything.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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52 Responses to Throw Obama Off The Fiscal Cliff

  1. jim2 says:

    We all need to get as many (legal) government perks as we can. Let’s speed up the train, so we can get better sooner.

  2. jim2 says:

    Also, I’m not so against higher rates for the rich. It seems they mostly voted for Obama and many live in Hollywood. They deserve to lose every penny possible.

  3. BobN says:

    The system is breaking and its not going to be fixed, so the best thing every Republican can do is help break the system. Sign up for every government goody you can get. This will speed things up and get us off the cliff sooner so we can start the recovery.

  4. The journey over the fiscal cliff may be part of the plan when the United Nations was formed in 1945 to implement a one-world government like George Orwell described in 1948:

    See: OBSERVATIONS in 1945, PREDICTIONS in 1948, and FALSE DOGMAS in 2009
    http://omanuel.wordpress.com/about/#comment-1743

  5. bruce says:

    You know BobN it would be nice if it worked that way. But you know it will drag itself out till all the players just deal another hand. None of them will ever fix it, there is no personal positive outcome.
    All they can do is make it worse, but since so many think worse is better the trip to the bottom is exitless and self motivated.

  6. p.g.sharrow says:

    To fully discredit the “Philosophy of Moore” The pain must be so severe that no one will forget, no matter how the Progressives spin it. We must Shout the cause across the internet as well as propose the solution. pg

  7. BobN says:

    I read where Obama received 140% of the eligible voters in Florida and now the report from Ohio
    http://investmentwatchblog.com/election-fraud-obama-won-more-than-99-percent-of-the-vote-in-more-than-100-ohio-precincts/

    If this is true the election was stolen pure and simple.

  8. BobN says:

    @ Bruce – I guess I look at it as we slowly inch our way into hell the next 20 years or we force the cliff and wipe out the debt and form a new government and start over. It may be hell for us, but we caused it or allowed it, maybe by a hard reset out kids may have a better life.

  9. John Andrews says:

    Obama today said he was willing to negotiate. That means that he will not! So we are going over the cliff. Get ready for it.

  10. Petrossa says:

    The best thing the Republicans could do is come up with a valid candidate. I mean McCain and then Romney? How could any Democrat candidate lose the elections?

  11. nickleaton says:

    wipe out the debt and form a new government and start over.

    =================

    Look at who are the biggest creditors. It’s pensioners and cititzens of the USA.

    Social security – can you handle none?

  12. David says:

    E.M., I have long thought the republicans do not know how to frame their arguments. To a canadaite they said that under no circumstances would they consider a rise in taxes. All along they should have agreed to the rise as a compromise, for real cuts that began right away. Instead they get labeled the selfish rich , throw granny off the cliff etc.

    So I agree, this could be a chance to get real some real cuts, and force the democratic plan to be blamed as deficits rise even faster then projected due to Obamacare, and due to an ever growing number of the work force flowing into a lower average work week, a lower percentage tax bracket causing a lower percentage of revenue, despite raisng the percentages paid to individuals. Ever less taxes paid by new employees hired at under 30 hours per week, or not hired at all, or fired to reduce or remain below 50 employees, etc.

    They really should show do as you say, “A” demonstrate that these are the taxes Obama wanted, “B” articulate that the reductions are not throwing granny off the cliff, and “C” predict that the deficits will still soar anyway due to the laffer curve and the steady destruction of the middle class due to Obamacare and energy policy. and “D” ask to be given power to fix the mess in the next election, all the time discussing that the fix will require pain.

    Re BobN says:
    12 November 2012 at 5:21 am
    ————————————————–
    I am not ignoring you, but it appears the nation is. Hopefully more research is being done here, and the facts will come out. Apparently the miliatary vote was even more surpressed then four years ago. Lots of Questions, few answers.

  13. philjourdan says:

    @p.g. – No such level of pain exists. We saw the progressive utopia in the 30s. And they did not learn. People have the memory of gold fish. The crises will come. And should we survive, it will be repeated as the progressives will always blame something else.

  14. adolfogiurfa says:

    There is something it must be pointed out: There is no such thing as REVENUE in any government anywhere on the world. Taxes are collected out from the people/enterprises which, when producing real goods and services, get a revenue from them.
    Taxes are only intended to fill the necessity of providing for common goods or services, like highways, bridges, etc., and, whensoever it is possible these goods or services should be outsourced by private companies.

  15. nickleaton says:

    Taxes are only intended to fill the necessity of providing for common goods or services, like highways, bridges,
    ===============

    And the massive debts that have been run up.

    eg. Lots of tax, but no services.

    Then you have the people who think tax itself is an end (particularly when they get the money)

  16. Jason Calley says:

    When a nation is composed of Third Graders, the candidate offering free puppies and ice cream will always win.

    The Republicans put name tags reading “Liberty” and “Small Government” on their puppies. The Democrats put “Free Obamaphones” and “Soak the Rich” labels on their puppies. Apparently phones and redistribution are more popular these days.

    I have to admit. the Republicans bother me more than the Democrats. At least the Democrats are honest about their socialism. The Republicans had six years under W where they controlled the House, the Senate and the White House. Instead of liberty and small government we got the Patriot Act, gigantic government and guys sticking their hands down my pants at the airport. All the unConstitutional stuff that the Democrats had previously pushed through was allowed to remain on the books and was rigorously enforced.

    As Malcolm X said “Anytime you throw your weight behind a political party that controls two-thirds of the government, and that Party can’t keep the promise that it made to you during election time, and you’re dumb enough to walk around continuing to identify yourself with that Party, you’re … a chump.”

    I don’t know, E.M. Maybe you are right. Maybe the Republicans ought to offer a solution and wait for the Democrats to drive the bus over the cliff. At present there is not much alternative. Personally, I think we are already over the cliff, we just have not impacted the bottom yet. But seriously, even if we as a nation are still in a position to fix things — fiscally speaking — is there any reason to think that the Republicans would do any differently than the Democrats if we let them steer the bus again? I’ve supported smaller government since Reagan pushed it — and none of the administrations, either Dems or Repubs, have show any real effort to shrink things, no matter what promises they made.

    PS Slight swerve of subjects, but related, I think, to our current situation. Many people have stated that the Republican Party is too ossified, too reliant on old white men. Maybe they are right. Consider the year 1928. 1928? Why 1928? 1928 was the last year in which a Republican ticket won the White House without either Richard Nixon or one of the Bushes on the ticket. Ossified? Maybe so…

  17. E.M.Smith says:

    @Jim2 & BobN:

    Love it to death? ;-)

    I was thinking something along those lines, but focused just on me. For example. the only time I have ever collected unemployment was when I was about 17 and the cannery season ended. Got about 2 weeks worth. But the process was so unpleasant that I’ve basically blown it off ever since. Besides, I’ve felt uncomfortable with collecting unemployment (during the frequent changes in the valley) when I’d been sucking down nice salaries just a few months before.

    Now I’m thinking: Well, heck. Why not? Maybe food stamps too! At present I don’t have any income. Haven’t had any for months. (The spouse is working as a teacher). I’m going to be a ’60 something’ fairly soon. I think I can sell that. “Nobody wants to hire an old gray haired geek with arthritis….” So with some ‘dole’ and food stamp, I’m not seeing much need to work. ( I already own most of the ‘stuff’ I want or need. Not real interested in ‘party time’ any more. Travel is more work than fun.)

    So far I’ve not acted on that ‘idea’, and I’m still thinking more along the lines of ‘entrepreneur’… but with taxes going through the roof, why even try? (And that’s part of the problem with the system…)

    FWIW, I’ve been pondering making a GHCN / GIStemp Linux release. Now that I have BitTorrent running on a ‘secure server’ I can distribute things modestly easily (provided some other folks actually get it via BitTorrent and keep it up for redistribution.) I could easily spin a distribution of Linux with the compilers and build scripts all ‘tuned’ for it. Data and GIStemp installed and operational. Heck, even bundle one version inside EMU so you can run it emulated under Windoze….

    I’ve also been pondering a line of Safer Appliance Computers. Linux distributions tuned for particular functions (like my SAC BitTorrent Server). Demonstrably more secure browsing, file sharing, etc. Not sure if any of them would actually make money.

    Now I’m thinking: Sign up for Government Goodies and kick back… The spouse has been talking about taking early retirement. One more out of the work force and collecting a ‘benefit’… Might as well be at the head of the Boomber Demographic Bomb instead of the tail.

    Don’t know if I could stand it long enough to get through the process, though. I hate the DMV…

    @Oliver:

    Soros and Friends have an agenda of breaking the USA. We’re one of the few (only?) places that was not falling in line with the UN / EU dogma… Looks to me like they are winning.

    @Bruce:

    One can hope that The Several States figure out how to use the part of the constitution that says they can fix things…. IIRC, more of those States were Red on the election map… ( Hmmm… Can The Several States vote to change the constitution to pitch out some of the states? Forget secession – can The South pitch out California and New York and take back the country that way? ;-)

    @P.G. Sharrow:

    Philosophy of Moore? I think I need to look up some history…

    @BobN:

    I was wondering if any of Chicago Style voting would show up in the counts anywhere. I doubt that any decent audit of the vote can be done, but a simple cross check would be local initiatives. Looking for places where the National vote goes one way, but the ‘imported voters’ had no idea how to vote on things like water bonds or mayor. A ‘disconnect’ of conservative vs progressive leaning beyond a percent or so would be suspect.

    It would be nice if a ‘precinct by precinct’ vote count could be found and mapped nationwide. Higher than normal turnout in some places (like black districts) would be expected, but if you have a 100% turnout in places like rural Florida… well, I’m sorry, but a lot of Baptists simply would not vote for either of the two candidates. (No slam on Baptists. Most of my church going development years were to Baptist churches and I’m Baptized Baptist. Full dunk in the tank and all. But realize those folks still use grape juice for communion as ‘alcohol is a sin’ and won’t allow a picture of Jesus or statue of Mary on the walls as they are “icons and idols”. Similarly, adding a few books to the Bible – the Book Of Mormon – is ‘right out’…) So some ‘reasonable expectations’ of likely vote counts compared to actual precinct counts would be enlightening. FWIW, I’d also expect to see an anomaly where vote counts rise in districts just outside major Democrat areas; but not deep into Republican Territory. Why? It’s easier to bus a load of folks one district over than to take them from Houston to Oklahoma…

    So I can see ways to tease a “Probable Cause” evidentiary lump out of this. Doubt you can get it done without a load of Feds investigating YOU from every possible angle, though…

    But frankly, I’d be surprised if The Chicago Team didn’t do things nationally in exactly the same way they have done them in Chicago for generations…

    @John Andrews:

    Oh, I think Obama will negotiate. He will negotiate for all the advantage HE can get compared to the “Over the Cliff” outcome. It is the Republicans who will not negotiate. They will give away all sorts of things in exchange for useless crumbs. Not only that, by joining the non-solution, they will let Obama claim it was a ‘bipartisan solution’ and then blame the Republicans later for not having given him more…

    So, for example, expect the Republicans to “negotiate” to keep tax cuts for the “poor” and shift even more tax burden to the “rich” (over $200,000 but as that will soon be $50,000 after inflation goes into high gear…) that will give Obama a more “progressive” tax table, which he wants. The Republicans will do it so they look like they are the ‘champion of low taxes’ and ‘saving the middle class’. In reality they will just be bungling the ‘negotiation’.

    So Obama will ‘negotiate’. Heads he wins, tails you lose.

    @Petrossa:

    I have to agree. I could “hold my nose and vote” for them, but only just barely. I know that a very large number of folks could not.

    I don’t know who ‘does the picking’ on the Republican side, but they are blowing it.

    Think Obama could have won against a Rubio / West ticket?

    @Nickleaton:

    One Small Problem… those SS IOUs are not real assets anyway. As noted in the prior posting, the productivity to back them up no longer exists here. All that exists is a wealth transfer from the ever fewer young productive to the ever more old retired. That can’t continue to work.

    So might as well ‘wipe out the debt’ (that takes about $2 Trillion just to the Chinese and Japanese with it) and then re-issue obligations for things that do need funding, like SS (that is only funded out of current payroll taxes anyway, in terms of actual money flow.)

    Though personally I don’t think we need to go so far as actual and blatant debt repudiation; I’m generally of the opinion that “recognizing the reality” is better than “under the rug and kick the can”. And the reality is that Social Security and ALL of the US Government is bankrupt. It needs to go through bankruptcy. (though it won’t…)

    @David:

    Why the Republicans ‘message’ as they do is a puzzlement. All I can figure is powerful interests out of touch with “blue collar republicans”.

    Frankly, they ought to be promoting the idea of a fair competition of open markets more. The “little guy” needing a fair and even playing field against the big rich, but not a handout. But the very rich have no desire for ‘fair competition’ and long ago learned to buy the government they wanted. So some of what the Republicans do looks like it is anchored in assuring key Very Rich keep sending checks… and that comes with a required message.

    So a “Romney” is more ‘their kind’ and accepted. A Rubio or West ‘has potential’ but doesn’t get the nod. And where is the support for an American Maggy Thatcher? Frankly, I’d love to see Condy Rice on the ticket… (Besides being brilliant, she’s cute ;-)

    Oh Well, nobody asks me…

    @PhilJourdan:

    The human capacity for deceit is only surpassed by the ability for self deception. The Progressives actually believe that it wasn’t their fault. Just like the Communists are certain that the FSU collapsed due to the Evil USA. You see that most plainly in the present near universal shouting that the Nazi and Italian Fascists were “Right Wing!!!”… even though they were National Socialists playing right out of the Communist Manifesto (with minor modifications in how industry were controlled and with a ‘national’ instead of ‘international’ focus). So we’ve had a wholesale ‘white wash’ of history to erase the repeated, catastrophic, and horrific failure of the various Socialisms. Then, here in America, we’ve had repeated name changes ( progressive to liberal and now back to progressive and…) with repeated learn / forget cycles.

    I never cease to be amazed at the astounding Power Of Stupid…

    @Adolfo:

    An interesting point….

    In English, the word “revenue” is a bit ambiguous. It covers ‘income to a business’ but also ‘money raked off to government’. The first meaning is part of ‘funding economic growth’ while the second is part of ‘parasitic reduction’. We really do need to find a way to disambiguate those two…

    Tax is the word that historically was used for “government take”. As it became more painful a word, we shifted to more pretty words like “fee” and “payment” and now “revenue”. Perhaps simply always confronting folks who say “government revenue” with a “Pardon, did you mean TAX?” would be helpful…

  18. @E.M Smith

    “Soros and Friends have an agenda of breaking the USA. We’re one of the few (only?) places that was not falling in line with the UN / EU dogma… Looks to me like they are winning.”

    Yes, deceit is attractive. It is used because it yields a temporary advantage.

    But society is collapsing now, E.M., because guilt-ridden Allied scientists sacrificed the governments we had inherited from our founding fathers in order to establish a one-world tyrannical government under the United Nations on 24 Oct 1945 [1]

    You and I share a special responsibility to inform distressed members of society that – although deceptive science contributed to current demise of society – the fundamental laws of science and religion assure us that eventually truth will be victorious !.

    1. http://www.amazon.com/Brighter-than-Thousand-Suns-Scientists/dp/0156141507

  19. Power Grab says:

    Speaking of Soros – I never understood the motivation for trying to “rule the world”. It always seems like it’s the sadists who have that as their favorite goal.

    Also speaking of Soros – are we sure he isn’t the one who absconded with all that $$$ in 2008? If you were that rich and had so much $$$ in so many banks, could cause them to tank if you suddenly closed your accounts…what is the real gain?

    Also, what about all that $$$ that went to failed entities like Solyndra? Where is it now?

    Is all that $$$ enough to set up a one-world government? I mean, if you’re just going to kill off a huge chunk of the population (like so many communist dynasties do), then just how much $$$ do you really need?

    Sorry if this seems disjointed – I spent the weekend at an anime con with my kid and 3 friends of my kid. I’m not really into that stuff, but it seems to be the only thing my kid will leave the house for except school.

  20. The distress is being expressed Secession petitions, already filed in 20 states !

    http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/lookout/secission-petitions-filed-20-states-190210006.html

  21. adolfogiurfa says:

    @E.M. You are right: Governments, by definition, do not produce REVENUES but LIABILITIES.

  22. adolfogiurfa says:

    The lack of a normal feeling of consciousness (moral consciousness) it is at the origin of all these problems. Those who feel pride for lacking this normal human impulse, who brag of being careless, are really sick people, like drug addicts: every time they want more money and power; IT IS THEIR WAY OF CRYING: “Help me, help me, I am lost!”

  23. adolfogiurfa says:

    It is told that the known magician Cagliostro explained to the french royal court how he predicted the future: ” It is very easy, he said, it is done by using logic….and asked a courtesan to bring a fresh egg, which he put on one of his hands…then he asked: Who can predict the future of this egg, who can say what will happen to it if I turn around my hand? …Everybody exclaimed that they could do it. Then he explained: ” To forecast the future is as easy as this, however a bit more complicated”.
    Have you seen the consequences of the hurricane Sandy?….. well, you have just predicted the future of your country.

  24. philjourdan says:

    @Jason Calley: Re: 6 years under Bush.

    Slight correction. He had 4. You forgot about Jumping Jim Jeffords.

  25. philjourdan says:

    @E.M. “I never cease to be amazed at the astounding Power Of Stupid… ”

    In my youth I was always underestimating the power of stupid. I no longer do.

  26. Richard Ilfeld says:

    What might cause a real secession? Hmmm. An arbitrary injunctive halt to fracking in North Dakota? An immediate “emergency” shutdown of coal power plants? A full bailout of CA/NY/IL state employee pension funds by assessment on those of other states?. Mandated “Black Boxes” in all cars to track location (for tax purposes, no “other” information would be collected or available”? Turn in your guns, now!?

    Impossible, right? Go back and read some newspapers from the 1840′s and 50′s.

  27. p.g.sharrow says:

    The Civil War was started by a crooked lawyer from Illinois and his gang of Evil Bastard friends that wanted to economically enslave the states with the power of Federal Government for their own benefit. pg

  28. @ p.g.sharrow Thanks to your comments here and elsewhere, . . .
    _ http://omanuel.wordpress.com/about/#comment-1719

    I am today grateful to have been assigned two simple tasks in 1960:

    _ A. Promote the truth revealed by observations and experimental data
    _ B. Oppose those who use public funds to deceive and enslave the public

    Many less fortunate members of the scientific community accepted public funds to deceive and enslave the public, and still refuse to acknowledge or discuss observations and experimental data that reveal a Power Higher than their Orwellian Master:

    The powerful force that controls the universe and sustains their very lives: “NEUTRON REPULSION” [Apeiron 19, 123-150 (2012)] !
    http://tinyurl.com/7t5ojrn

  29. Paul Hanlon says:

    So even with the fiscal cliff, the budget will still be in deficit, and the US government debt will have risen to ~$20 trillion by 2022, which means that any compromise they might come to is just kicking the can even further down the road, and will lead to even higher debt.

  30. Jason Calley says:

    @ philjordan “Slight correction. He had 4. You forgot about Jumping Jim Jeffords.”

    I think you are very correct. “Thank you, Sir! May I have another!” :)

    Four years is still plenty to illustrate the point though. When it comes to increasing governmental powers (think of Roosevelt in 1933) massive amounts of legislation can be passed in a matter of weeks. On the other hand, when it comes to cutting government or spending, four years is not even a start.

    If I contracted with a company to re-roof my house, paid up front, and then they STILL had not done the job after four years, I might become a bit cynical about their enthusiasm in keeping their promises.

  31. philjourdan says:

    @Jason – I do not disagree with your original point. Indeed, I actually held out hope for Republicans until Bush 43.

  32. E.M.Smith says:

    @Oliver:

    Interesting book link. “Temporarily out of stock” so looks like it’s selling ;-)

    I suspect that the worries of the atomic scientists AND the politicians will be both shown true (as Iran gets the bomb, and uses it) while at the same time ending their attempt at world domination… that is pushing Iran toward the bomb just as it did N. Korea… Odd, that.

    Feedback and self fulfilling prophecy can be a bitch…

    @PowerGrab:

    It is no different from the Junk Yard Dog or Schoolyard Bully. What does a bully gain from you having a black eye? A feeling of power and importance. Pleasure centers light up from that.

    Now me, I don’t give a damn what you eat or drink. Doesn’t do a thing to my ‘pleasure centers’ if I can determine if you drink a coke, or orange juice. Mayor Bloomberg, though, clearly ‘gets off’ on that feeling of power. He has decided that folks in NYC ought not have more than 16 ounces to drink. The Coke Company cares about you choosing coke vs pepsi (but doesn’t care much about coke vs OJ as long as it is Minute Maid that they also own ;-). So the President of Coke Inc ‘gets off’ on more sales of {coke | minute maid | their products } AND when you order the 64 ounce size… So in a real way, Bloomberg and the President of Coke Inc both care about what you drink and how much, and it’s a fight between the two of them over your mouth and what you do with it… But not me.

    I’m “broken” from their point of view. They are broken from my point of view. ( I couldn’t run Coke as I can’t bring myself to get excited about sugar water… I’d rather be pushing Linux ;-)

    So one way to look at it is that once you’ve got $Billions, it isn’t about wealth or money. It’s about winning the Bridge Game and seeing the competition broken. It’s about controlling other people and ‘enjoying the power’. Soros originally made his first $Billion while bitching about socialism in England and how it would bugger the Pound and betting the pound would break. IMHO, he decided that since it paid off so well, might as well “feed the stupid” and get more power in the process… Since he’s already ‘taken down’ many national currencies, the only one he’s not got on his Trophy Wall is the head of the USA. Thus, IMHO, all the effort he puts into promoting Socialist Buck Busting organizations and policies.

    The Solyndra (and other green bailout failures) money is in the pocket of Al Gore in particular and his Friends and co-green Democrat investors in general. The money went into the companies, and paid out to the ‘investors’ in bankruptcy. Otherwise the bond holders and lenders would have been more screwed. One of those investors was Al Gore, per news I saw somewhere…

    Soros and his level of investor don’t have bank accounts like you and me, they own banks (or in the case of Soros, a hedge fund). He likes taking short bets on things, like currencies, so his hedge fund was likely shorting the US market hard. I’ve seen patterns of movement in gold, Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen that indicate large counter flow of funds. So I suspect a major hedge fund (or several) based in Francs and Yen, with some squirreled away in gold. What bank ‘holds the accounts” would be interesting, but not very useful. If you find that “The Slush Fund Bank of Cayman” has $Billion flow back and forth from the US Currency Short Futures market, it doesn’t tell you much about who…

    So Soros likely had little or no money in Bank Of America or even Citi Bank. But in a Cayman bank he owns? Likely. In Swiss and Japanese banks? Highly likely. In loads of hedge fund contracts (likely shorting the US Dollar and Euro now), almost certainly.

    Remember that a hedge fund can make money if things go up or down. The ability to drive a market into panic can be highly profitable. That’s why the ‘uptick rule’ was originally put in place. To prevent the classic “Bear Raid”. A Fat Wallet starts shorting stocks like crazy, pretty soon it’s a panic. Whoever has the biggest wallet can short more than the little wallets can buy,. so the prices WILL be driven down. The uptick rule said you could only initiate a new short sell if there was a ‘natural buyer’ who bought causing the price to go up by a ‘tick’ (that was usually 1/4 dollar). When we moved to decimalized trades, they dropped the uptick rule. Supposedly because it didn’t make sense in penny size. Clearly they couldn’t count to 25 cents ;-)

    At any rate, that was the point when I had to become a one person hedge fund. Swapping from longs to shorts as the charts swapped. It’s just not possible to have secure investments in stocks in a world with classic bear raids being allowed. You must trade, or have a long / short mix in a hedged operation. It’s just a casino, not an investment.

    How much to rule the world? About 10% of the population ‘in your pocket’, though only about 1% need to be directly controlled and 9% leveraged by them. They, then, rule the rest.

    @Oliver:

    20 States, eh? Hey, if it gets to 26, we’re the majority… can we then toss out the others instead?

    (My favored scenario, BTW, is just having the Red States vote to eject the blue ones… Tell them the can come back in when they have a balanced budget, have paid off their part of the US Debt, and actually do what the constitution says to do…)

    @Adolfo:

    Except they are not crying for help. They love being bullies and in power. Yes, they are borken humans, but they LIKE it…

    @PhilJourdan:

    I guess I’m still young at heart then ;-)

    @Richard Ilfeld:

    Nothing will happen until the average folks are more uncomfortable than they can stand. As about 1/2 are comfortably on the Government Dole or Payroll, that’s a hard ‘average’ to change…

    @P.G. Sharrow:

    Seems to have worked…

    @Oliver:

    Does your iron sun model have an explanation for the solar cycles? Does planetary ‘stirring’ of an iron or neutron core have effects different from a He-H sun that would be explicative?

    If you can show why the inexplicable cycle happen, you could likely get the “sun did it” cycle folks on your side of the fence… just a thought…

    @Paul Hanlon:

    Yes, and not very far down the road at that.

    My “eyeball” of the chart puts about another $Trillion on the debt load this next year, then $1/2 and then about $1/4 T / year for all future time. It think that is overly optimistic, as they are clearly expecting the economy to recover. Under the added 6% of GDP to taxes, it will be shrinking not growing. So we ought to be at $18 T debt to $20 T by the end of Obama’s terms, and somewhere in there the interest rates are going to head back up causing the interest load to go nuts too.

    If we DON’T ‘go off the cliff, it stays at about $1T to $1.5 T per year and we’re clearly ‘in the doo” by that $22 Trillion ‘right quick’ and with faster ‘blow up’ of the interest charges.

    So to me, I can’t see any way to keep this from disaster during Obama’s next term. Just not enough money. (Yes, they can print more currency, but not more ‘real value’). Even raising taxes can’t fix it as they are on the wrong side of the Laffer Curve.

    That’s the real bugger of Economics. It doesn’t care what you want, nor what you believe. It just is.

    So both the Democrats and the Republicans are making decisions based on a broken understanding. They think that raising rates or playing with ‘deductions’ will change the tax haul. It can change a little bit ‘from whom’, but the Laffer Curve sets limits on how much. Mostly they just change how much goes to tax lawyers and tax accountants (and insurance ‘products). And how much leaves the country.

    @Nickleaton:

    If your goal is National Socialism, “Tax” is an ends. It is the leverage of power that gives control.

    It isn’t about ‘running the government’ it is about gathering power to the Central Planners and breaking the power of the individual wealth holder.

    @Jason:

    Dismal but true…

    That presidential election statistic is also depressing…

    I’ve had folks call me Republican for advocating that they get more power, but in reality I’m not all that fond of the Republicans. I’d rather have a Libertarian. Officially I’m registered Independent.

    I too think that what we really have is ONE party with your choice of fiscal or liberty abuse to excess… What bothers me is that neither one reduces by one iota the ‘legacy’ of the other. At times I think “this behaviour is by design”, so they collectively can ratchet ever closer to the goal state of police state socialism.

    That is, in fact, part of why I’m thinking ‘off the cliff’ is not so bad a choice. At least SOMETHING has to be cut or stop growing…

    Thanks to TSA, I basically don’t bother flying any more. Just don’t see the need. Maybe if I leave the country (east / west) I’d do it.. Frankly, I’d be willing to DRIVE through Mexico to see South America rather than fly. Drug wars, gangs, and all… ( I have a 400+ mile range in the Diesel and it’s built like a tank ;-) so only need to occasionally stop to fill up at very public places… It’s also old enough to not be ‘attractive’ to folks…) Just can’t stand the feeling of “Police State – Your Papers Please!” Thanks to the ‘black box’ law I’m never buying a new car.

    At any rate, for me it’s likely only a decade scale problem. 20 years max. (And some chunk of that would be in a room with a motorized bed…) It’s the kids who will have to deal with it. Even if I don’t get out of the country, I’m encouraging them to think about it. (Though ‘where’ is still a bit problematic… While I’m looking into Panama and some other Latin / Island places, they are not that attractive to someone starting a career and looking for the American Dream).

    Was watching the Old Movies at the theatre again… saw “The Bank Dick” with W.C. Fields and a couple of others. In one of them ( I forget which one) there was the iconic “It’s a free country ain’t it?”… and I thought just how long it’s been since I’ve heard someone actually say that. It was fairly common in the ’50s. Now? It’s been years… maybe decades… I remember saying it a few times back in the ’80s and thinking it seemed out of place then… and stopped.

    So we’re no longer “a free country”, but a ‘regulation nation’. Can’t even plant a tree in your yard without government approval. (Or remove one). Here in S.J. the City Arborist decides what trees can be planted in the parkway and you must get permits to remove things bigger than shrubs. And don’t even think of putting in a light socket without paying someone and sending a cut to the government for ‘inspection’…

    Oh Well…. clearly it’s what “the people” wanted, or at least don’t care enough to remove…

    So given a choice of Dims or Rips, I lean a tiny bit Republican, but only from wanting to stop the money flow figuring that might reduce the ability to do the rest of the Stupid. So far, it didn’t (they just went to the Chinese Credit Card). At that point, I’m more “neutral” than ever. (but I suspect Obama will take action to move my ‘middle’ position to the right by running massively to the left…)

    IF any State leaves the Union, I’m going there… Hope it’s Texas… I like Texas…

  33. @E.M.Smith: “Does your iron sun model have an explanation for the solar cycles? Does planetary ‘stirring’ of an iron or neutron core have effects different from a He-H sun that would be explicative?”

    Yes, as explained on page 139 of “Earth’s heat source – The Sun,” Energy & Environment 20, 131-144 (2009) http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0905/0905.0704.pdf

    “There is no doubt that sunspot production is linked to orbital motion of the planets and to velocity changes in the Sun, as it is jerked, like a yo–yo on a string, about the constantly changing centre-of-mass (barycentre) of the solar system. However, the mechanism for sunspot production has remained hidden. The reason for this empirical fact would remain a mystery if the Sun were in fact the homogeneous object described by the Standard Solar Model. It certainly is not.”

    “The Sun is stratified, covered with a surface veneer of hydrogen, the most lightweight of all elements, and centered on an energetic core of extreme nuclear density. The depth of this dense, energetic solar core shifts relative to the solar “surface” as gravitational forces cause the Sun to experience abrupt acceleration and deceleration in its orbit about the barycentre of the solar system. The Sun’s resulting irregular orbit is shown in Figure 7.”

  34. E.M.Smith says:

    @Oliver:

    But doesn’t the same “free fall” argument apply to a dense core? What’s the mechanism to have the core move relative to the surface layers?

  35. @E.M.Smith:

    Do you think the relative positions of the Sun’s dense pulsar core and its very diffuse cloud of waste products (H and He) will remain fixed as the Sun is jerked, gravitationally, like a yo–yo on a string, about the constantly changing centre-of-mass (barycentre) of the solar system?

    You may be right. That is not intuitive to me nor to my experiences from seeing shakers and centrifuges in the laboratory.

  36. E.M.Smith says:

    @Oliver:

    Only thing I can think of is some kind of relativity effect from the high gravity and / or a non-point-source mass argument. So the ‘core’ having a different gravity gradient than the far side surface? Don’t have the skill with relativity and gravity calculations to work it out myself…

    Or maybe a ‘frame dragging’ artifact?

  37. p.g.sharrow says:

    Mass has Inertia. Barycenter gravity accelerates and decelerates the layered mass of the sun at different rates in solid, liquid and gases that change density/pressure within the layers and more important between layers. Changes in density/pressure of matter causes changes in the rate of Neutron creation and NEUTRON DECAY. Neutron creation, aided by gravity adds to mass. Neutron decay adds to energy as it loses mass. God powers the Universe by manipulation of the atomic device we call Neutron. pg

  38. Jason Calley says:

    @ E.M. “What bothers me is that neither one reduces by one iota the ‘legacy’ of the other. At times I think “this behaviour is by design”, so they collectively can ratchet ever closer to the goal state of police state socialism.”

    Behavior by design? It sure does look like it. It took me a long time to realize that neither party ever did any serious untangling of the supposed outrageous laws the other party passed. These days I think of it with the following analogy. Suppose you hired two security guards to protect your family. After only a few days on the job, the first shift guard comes in one day, hits you on the head, ties you to a chair and steals the money out of your safe. You scream, you yell, but the guard laughs at you. Finally after 12 hours, the second guard comes on duty. He shakes hands with the other guard and wishes him a good night as the first guard disappears out the door. You yell, “For God’s sake! STOP HIM! Don’t you see what he did? He tied me in this chair! He beat me up and took my money! Please! Untie me and stop him!” However… the new guard does not untie you. He does tell you how wrong the other guard was and he promises not to do the same – but he does not untie you and he never tries to apprehend the first guard. Instead, what he does is he rummages around in your pocket, gets your car keys, drinks the whiskey from your cupboard and then shoots your dog in a drunken rage. Just about then, the first guard returns, just in time to bid farewell to the second, whom you hear driving off in your car after busting through the unopened garage door. The returning guard promises that he will NEVER steal your car.

    Rinse, repeat. Rinse, repeat. Every four years. I suspect that the cycle is four years because it takes three years for the average sleepwalking person to forget about the bad dream he lived in under the previous administration.

    “I basically don’t bother flying any more. Just don’t see the need. Maybe if I leave the country (east / west) I’d do it.. Frankly, I’d be willing to DRIVE through Mexico to see South America rather than fly. “

    I feel the same way about flying – but just a couple of weeks ago I flew for the first time since the TSA (spit) was put into the airports. Yeah… one of those fly or maybe lose my job choices. I cannot say that I am still angry about the procedure – but I am most definitely still offended. On the other hand, if you want to go to South America, why not take a boat? Might be nice. But yes, I worry about what sort of place my grandkids will live in, and what I could have done differently to make it better. Hard to save the Titanic when you are not allowed on the bridge…

    “So we’re no longer “a free country”, but a ‘regulation nation’. Can’t even plant a tree in your yard without government approval.”

    I try as much as possible to ignore them. Ignore them, tempered by prudence. Get new auto tag stickers, but why ask about a tree. Instead, plant it someplace less obvious. Or build a trellis, plant the tree behind it and then take the trellis down in another couple of years. Oh well. By the way, pardon the bad language in this video, but have you seen Dogue Stanhope? Warning! Bad language!

    “IF any State leaves the Union, I’m going there… Hope it’s Texas… I like Texas…”

    Good choice! Maybe somewhere near Austin. :) I have a lot of respect for Texans. Lived there long ago. They kindly taught me about Santa Anna. I always remember the Texan version of their war for independence and bring it up when people tell me that Texas “was stolen from Mexico.”

  39. E.M.Smith says:

    From that Yahoo link / article above:

    The petitions are short and to the point. For example, a petition from the Volunteer State reads: “Peacefully grant the State of Tennessee to withdraw from the United States of America and create its own NEW government.” Of all the petitions, Texas has the most signatures so far, with more than 23,000.

    Of course, this is mostly a symbolic gesture. The odds of the American government granting any state permission to go its own way are on par with winning the lottery while getting hit by a meteor while seeing Bigfoot while finding gluten-free pizza that tastes like the real thing.

    An article from WKRC quotes a University of Louisville political science professor who explained that these petitions aren’t uncommon. Similar petitions were filed following the 2004 and 2008 elections. Still, should the petitions garner 25,000 signatures in a month, they will require an official response from the Obama administration.

    So we need 2000 more Texans to sign the petition… Looks to me like a decent advertising push on this would put it over…

    @Jason:

    I like The Hill Country just a bit more than Austin. But Austin was very very nice…

    Dallas is a bit of an urban mess, though. East Texas looks very nice (such as near Tyler) but the mosquito count goes higher than I can accept. West Texas is great on the mosquito front, but a bit dry and dusty for the sneeze and garden factors. But hill country… nice mix… Far enough from shore not to have the big storm problem either. (Just don’t buy a house where it DOES rain a lot that is on that hard pan dirt and downhill from where the rain falls… Gully is a bad idea…)

    Frankly, I don’t see where Texas gets anything of use from The Union, so leaving would be a net gain, IMHO.

  40. omanuel says:

    @ p.g.sharrow:

    1. That seems reasonable: “Mass has Inertia. Barycenter gravity accelerates and decelerates the layered mass of the sun at different rates in solid, liquid and gases that change density-pressure within the layers and more importantly between layers.”

    2. New danger on the international front?

    http://informthepundits.wordpress.com/2012/11/13/secret-military-bases-dprk-rocket-tests/

    Here’s my interpretation: http://omanuel.wordpress.com/about/#comment-1743

  41. Jason Calley says:

    @E.M. “Only thing I can think of is some kind of relativity effect from the high gravity and / or a non-point-source mass argument. So the ‘core’ having a different gravity gradient than the far side surface? Don’t have the skill with relativity and gravity calculations to work it out myself…Or maybe a ‘frame dragging’ artifact?”

    One possible relativistic effect has been suggested by Ray Tomes. We tend to think of gravitational effects as being unaffected by the velocity of the objects being considered. However, one of the distinguishing marks of General Relativity vs Newtonian Gravity is the in GR photons are deflected exactly twice as much as slow moving objects. Ray Tomes posits that perhaps the doubled force of gravity on light-speed photons is crucial in understanding solar dynamics. Tidal forces are tiny; straight gravitational forces are much larger in comparison. If the photons inside the Sun are jerked around twice as strongly as as the various solids or gases, that may make a big difference. You may think that a force differential on photons would be a minor matter, but the sheer number of photons deep in the Sun is gigantic — and they are tremendously long lived. While photons here on Earth are here and gone almost instantly, the density of matter deep in the Sun slows down the photons as they are absorbed, re-radiated, absorbed, re-radiated over and over. I forget the number off the top of my head, but the time for a photon to travel from the interior of the Sun to the outside is on the order of thousands or tens of thousands of years. If the Sun itself can be pulled a full solar diameter from the barycenter, it is only reasonable to think that the “photonic core” of the Sun would be offset by some greater distance.

    NB. Ray Tomes is considered by some to be a crackpot because of his study of cycles, harmonics and resonances. Some people see it as strict numerology without understanding that complex systems will naturally fall into complicated arrangements of various cycles as multiple harmonics interact, reenforce and cancel.

  42. 1. It is well-established (IMHO) that solar cycles are influenced by solar motion, especially abrupt changes in solar inertial motion. That is not my field of study, but several references were cited in “Earth’s heat source – The Sun” [Energy & Environment 20, 131-144 (2009)] http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0905/0905.0704.pdf

    2. If the Sun’s pulsar core were rigidly attached to its fluid atmosphere of waste products, or if the Sun were a giant ball of hydrogen with steadily increasing density from the surface inward, abrupt changes in solar inertial motion might not matter.

    The link between solar motion and solar activity has been known since 1965 [P. D. Jose, “Sun’s motion and sunspots”, Astron. J. 70</b., 193-200 (1965)]

  43. BobN says:

    Here is a link to a topic on Obama’s take over of the IRA and 401K system.
    http://www.nationalseniorscouncil.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=89:obama-begins-push-for-new-national-retirement-system&catid=34:social-security&Itemid=62

    They need to get their hands on your retirement to redistribute to the poor. Why work?

  44. p.g.sharrow says:

    @BobN: Read the link, Sounds like the same argument used to steal private wealth, gold, in 1932 in exchange for notes,US – I.O.U.s to fund the Treasury and then started up Social Security to TAX the wages of the poor that did not pay Income Tax. Of course this is to look after the retirement needs of working poor people. Now the money is gone and they need more money to run the giverment and pay Social Security retirement & medicare that has been promised and already collected for. PONZI schemes always need new money to pump up the balloon one more time. Time to admit the CON is BUSTED. This can’t be fixed, it’s too late. pg

  45. p.g.sharrow says:

    @OliverKManuel, Your link is an interesting read. pg

  46. David says:

    A couple of second thoughts. The republicans keep losing the PR game. The MSM is fully against them. They are the bad guys. If we go over the cliff, and the little guys gets hit with the payroll tax etc, they will be blamed. The fact that this (the fiscal cliff) was a democratic proposal, will be lost in the media firestorm of blaming republicans for not working with the elected democratic government. Think about the intial deal the republicans accepted to get here. They were stupidly twisted into this postion of compromise with the devil. The next compromise is only worse, but still it is far better to capitulate to save the tax increase on the common man.

    This is the only one way now to win the PR game. (and that is tantmount for the future) They must fight for real cuts, which Obama will never give, but make that fact clear. They must, after a battle, offer the military cuts. As mentioned, most are a supposed peace dividend, but I guarantee there is 6 yo 7%% of fat in the military budget. In the end they must, under vocal united protest, accept the milatary cuts, as well as accept the higher taxes on the rich, and louldly, to a man, say that they had to capitulate to all of this, higher tax rates, extreme miliatary cuts, everything Obama wanted, JUST to save the tax cuts on the little guy. They must do all of the above under loud and continues protest that they were blackmailed into this, and they must repeat every day, at every news conference, that under Obama’s policy, we will still have a massive recession, and forewarn America (particularly Black and hispanic America) every day, in front of every microphone, that employment still will not improve, and neither will the extremely optomistc deficit reductions indicated. At the photo op for the signing of the agreement, they must, even there, not smile, not shake hands, but engage in frank open talk of the blackmail of the Democrats, and the sad promise of future pain and democratic inspired failure.

    They must articulate (through united bold predictions) that deficit reduction and jobs growth will still not happen for three reasons. Obamacare, Energy policy, foreign policy destabilizing the world, necessitating US military expenses. They must predict massive destruction of the middle class. They must, over and over, tell the minority community that Obama policy is responible for their misery.

    They must spend millions as outreach in all the swing states, pointing out to minorties in urban enviroments everywhere (swing states mainly) that jobs are better then welfare, that pride is better then victimhood, and that in dire circumstances then of course food and adequet housing for all, is, yes, a necessary safety net, that they will never reject, but it can be done WITH PRIDE at 1/4 the cost of todays programs, and can be ministered by the very people recieving the food and housing, until such time as the economy recovers from years of government abuse and overregulation. Millions of fliers over and over pointing out the futility of the Government to live up to its promise…, pointing out the value of self suffciency, the pride of taking care of ones own neighborhood…Coservative Black and Hispanic celebrties on the face of every flyer, delivered over and over. they must point out real sucess stories of peers within their community suceeding in a culture of hard work, and self suffciency. The colossal and historic failures of the shiny socialism thing, must be repeated over and over, grass roots communication of the value of hard and honest work, and self sufficiency must be shown over and over. Black and hispanic conservatives must point out the sucess of asian minorties in the US from around the world. They must tell them why these cultures suceeded in the US, despite racial predjudice, and it must be communicated that it has nothing to do with intellligence, but everything to do with coming from a “I am hungry culture,” vs a “I am owed” culture. Pictures of Obama with whips and chains in his hands saying, “You live to serve this ship, row well, and live” must be distributed everywhere, showing the destruction of the middle class, and ever increasing dependency on a master incapable of providing what he promised, a Saviour and protector, turned into a Tyrant.

  47. E.M.Smith says:

    @P.G. Sharrow:

    Yes it is, isn’t it ;-)

    BTW, thinking some more about mechanism for a solar core to not move with the surface.

    How about this for an idea. (Oliver can tell me where I’m being silly ;-)

    Light pressure. The photosphere et. al. is more subject to interactions with things like the emitted energy of the stuff under it. The “core” is not. So a gravitational ‘tug’ on the core would tend to simply cause it to move. (Modulo some hard to characterized torques from relativistic ‘frame dragging’ that I’ve not been able to model well in my poor brain… but I can see a place for a bit of ‘twisting’ here as the side of the solar core closest to Jupiter has one reference frame while the other side has a different one as the frame is being drug around… and maybe the center has yet a third gravity frame since it isn’t rotating as fast and is in ‘zero g’ though high compression since it sees near equal gravity from all directions…)

    So you have this core about as dense as an atomic core, and it’s got some tremendous forces on it, and gravity gives it a (twisty?) tug to move it a solar radius. The photosphere would like to have the same ‘tug’, but it’s getting a heck of a lot of pressure from photons trying to blow it off the ‘surface’. Far side (from say Jupiter) is suffering some inertia lag in moving and a lot of photo pressure while being shielded from Jupiter by the mass of the sun (and its distorting rotating relativistic frame drag) while the side facing Jupiter gets pushed more as the solar “surface” is both less forgiving in compression AND in photon pressure (them not wanting to be compressed / impeded either) and nothing much is shielding any given atom from a bit more Jupiter tug of gravity either. Then there is that frame dragging issue, that might put a bit more force on some parts than others.

    (I’m thinking of something like this article has for a black hole of 7 solar masses, but with only 1 solar mass and more spread out physically, so much less force scale:
    http://heasarc.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/xte/Greatest_Hits/frame.html
    Now jerk that to one side via gravity… and I think the distortion of that asymmetrical gravity change will have an effect on the ‘spinning stuff’ near the frame drag area… I just lack the physics math skill to calculate exactly what / size. So might be irrelevant in scope.)

    So it looks to me like there is room for two things. Some ‘gas layer left behind more’ on the side away from the Jupiter tug toward the barycenter and some ‘roiling’ of layers due to a frame dragging gravity shielding, torquing effect.

    That, then, is enough to mutate the level of sunspots.

    At least, that’s as far as I’ve been able to push a weakly thought out hypothesis…

    So, anyone see anything useful in that line of attack on the ‘question’? Or just a ‘crazy talk’ bent fantasy in need of more sleep and / or coffee clarity ;-)

    @David:

    Interesting vision. Don’t see how it’s a Win for Republicans as they can’t get that megaphone to be heard. If they vote for it, they own it…

    If they just let Obama drive off the cliff, it’s much harder to show ‘they did anything’ when they do nothing. Easier to point at ‘their plan’ that they really DID offer, IMHO.

    And at least that way the discretionary expenditures hit a stop / wall for a year. Hard to make ‘new programs’ with a froze budget…

    The military budget takes a big hit, but that can be absorbed in leaving the war zones. (Something we ought to have done a while ago anyway, IMHO) Maybe not buying some more new toys for a year or two (easily absorbed). Frankly, I think a lot of folks in the military wouldn’t mind a couple of years NOT on deployment but closer to home.

    If the Republicans do anything to be part of a ‘bi-partisan solution’ they WILL be held as part of the guilty. (Likely all of it, as Obama will just say “Well, we had to compromise just to get THIS much, and it’s the Republicans fault. If Only we’d gotten the whole thing then it would have been all good.” ) So I’d personally think it an easier case to make to say “We wanted Puppies and Unicorns and no taxes and more benefits for everyone, but Obama wouldn’t do it” than to say “We signed onto the deal, and supported it, but it was a bad deal, and so debt and expenses continue to rise and the recession got worse, but it’s not our fault.”

    “Distancing themselves” while making all happy pretty pleasing sounds; well, it’s a time honored way to ‘step away from the idiot’.

    “Slow dancing with the mangy dog” is a time honored way to get fleas, mange, and bit.

    But I could be wrong. I’m a lousy politician. (Too direct…)

  48. E.M.Smith says:

    @Jason Calley:

    Still trying to integrate ‘double force photons’ into my thinking. But…

    It takes something like 200,000 years for a photon to move one solar radius. Suddenly it’s getting moved an entire solar radius in a couple of years, and via a ‘gravity tug’ that is twice as hard on it as on the ‘stuff’. So that ‘light pressure’ I mention above (and characterized as higher on the Jupiter side…)… maybe:

    The photons “slosh” to the Jupiter side more. Push the lighter layers up more, and just ‘slop out’ more? In the ‘trefoil’ shape orbits, there’s more ‘photon sloshing’ so more activity in the sun. In the wide loop circling the barycenter orbits, less photon sloshing, so less activity.

    If you’ve got 200,000 years worth of energy budget to play with, doesn’t take much of a ‘slosh’ in those photons to get a 1% or 2% shift of TSI and lots less UV / more IR. Heck, wonder if there’s a direct differential ‘pull’ on UV photons vs IR photons under those conditions? They have different energies, and “mass is energy” so different embodied masses. Maybe in times of high orbital change (trefoil state) more UV photons are ‘tugged’ out while in low orbital change time (big barycenter outside the sun loops) more IR photons that were ‘left behind’ can catch up?

    If the photons can take 200,000 years of acting like a soup to get out, and have differential gravity pull, then it’s not the ‘core’ vs the ‘photosphere’ that’s wobbly, but maybe the light vs the stuff…. It’s a heck of a lot of photons and a lot of energy / mass…

  49. David says:

    E.M. says…Interesting vision. Don’t see how it’s a Win for Republicans as they can’t get that megaphone to be heard. If they vote for it, they own it…

    If they just let Obama drive off the cliff, it’s much harder to show ‘they did anything’ when they do nothing. Easier to point at ‘their plan’ that they really DID offer, IMHO.

    And at least that way the discretionary expenditures hit a stop / wall for a year. Hard to make ‘new programs’ with a froze budget…
    ===================================================================
    Well, I would be a lousy politician also. I do not really understand the non defense sequestration limitations, or how they relate to Obamacare, and the tax increases with regard to Obamacare.
    I do not that the costs of Obama care will soar, and quite rapidly as the trifecta of insurance possible levels offered by employers will rapidly force most of the nation onto the goverment program, as private insurance becomes increasingly expensive with required no deductions, no premium or exclusion on pre existing conditions etc.

    What I do see, if we go off the cliff, is the Democratic mantra, repeated a million times from every station around the world, “The republicans threw the common man under the bus, just to avoid the rich man paying more., now we are all screwed.” The democrats will say that Obama never wanted the tax cuts affecting the little man to go away, but the rich fat cats had to pay their fair share.

    The democrats all ready have most of the US convinced that social sercurity and medicare are solvent. Obama refuses to lead, and put out a real budget proposal. How does the man in charge get away with never leading? Somehow they must force Obama to say exactly what he wants in his ideal world.

    In the end they must, under vocal united protest, accept the military cuts, as well as accept the higher taxes on the rich, and loudly, to a man, say that they had to capitulate to all of this, higher tax rates, extreme military cuts, EVERYTHING Obama wanted, JUST to save the tax cuts on the little guy.

    Well, I am just PLAYING devils advocate here, to explore some senarios and increase my understanding. (Mainly my own musing with out attachment to it) Perhaps my biggest area of not understanding is how Obamacare is impacted by all this. Your point that even going off the cliff, leaves a growing deficit, is cogent.

  50. David says:

    typo, not “I do not”, but “I do note that the cost of Obamacare will soar…”

  51. adolfogiurfa says:

    The Sun´s core is but a cathode to the galaxy.

  52. GAI says:

    Secession Petitions have now been Filed In All 50 States. Many have reached the minimum number of signatures. Texas is in the lead with more than 101,328 online signatures. Petitions from seven states have now collected enough signatures to trigger a review from the Obama administration. There are three quarter million and counting signatures on secession petitions.

    Huff and Puff of course is making nasty comments about sour-grapes and other MSM are making fun. There are also counter petitions asking that anyone having signed the Secession Petitions be stripped of citizenship and deported.

    I see this as not only a major vote of no confidence in the White House but an example of how well this admin has divided the country. Also evidence of voter fraud has prompted a recount petition at the same White House website. The website was set up to show that Obama was responsive “to the people” and that he would review any petition with 25,000 signatures or more…. An excellent example of be careful what you promise.

    It completely floors me that anyone could think that DC is doing a good job of running this country. Just goes to show that lying and propaganda will win every time because people are too lazy or too short of time to check the facts.

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