Peru Stocks

Peru ETF EPU vs SPY and selected Peruvian ADRs w/ RSI MACD DMI

Peru ETF EPU vs SPY and selected Peruvian ADRs w/ RSI MACD DMI

EPU  -  Peru iShares ETF
ILF  -  Latin 40 "Majors" fund
SPY  -  S&P 500 benchmark
JJC  -  Copper commodity ETN
SCCO -  Southern Copper
BWP  -  Banko Wese Limitado

LUZS -  Luz del Sur (Light of the South)  [Ticker not in Bigcharts ]
PREY -  Peru Real Estate                  [Ticker not in Bigcharts ]
TDP  -  Telephonica del Peru              [Ticker not in Bigcharts ]

First off, prices look to just ‘lay there’ for a couple of months, them move rapidly in one. Plan any trades / investments accordingly. It looks to me like about once a quarter, but not on the usual quarter dates. SCCO Southern Copper has the best rise, while the bank Banko Wese is more laid back. Easily beating the Latin Majors, but under the S&P 500 for the year (though rising faster and beating it over the last 6 months).

Overall, it looks like a “commodity country” with particular leverage to the price of copper. So if economic activity picks up, so do copper prices, so ought Peru ETF and SCCO. In economic downturns, things can drop fast. So “watch copper” if trading or owning EPU or SCCO. Generally looking like “buy the dips”, and “sell the rips” with right now being “part way into a dip”. Given the ‘several months and a jump’ pattern, one has time to think about it and double check.

This next chart is more of a mess. Tickers with more violent swings and less interesting. Also some “pink sheets” or “OTC Over The Counter” tickers that are also not in Bigcharts are listed.

Peru ETF EPU vs SPY vs JJT Tin, JJN Nickel, SLV Silver  and selected ADRs w/ Vol+ VFast Momentum

Peru ETF EPU vs SPY vs JJT Tin, JJN Nickel, SLV Silver and selected ADRs w/ Vol+ VFast Momentum

EPU   -  Peru iShares ETF
GLD   -  Gold ETF
EWW   -  Mexico ETF benchmark
CEMTY -  CEMENTOS LIMA LEVEL-I
BVN   -  COMPANIA DE MINAS BUENAVENTURA "B"SHARES
JJT   -  Tin ETN
JJN   -  Nickel ETN
SLV   -  Silver ETF

IFNHBYP - CORPORACION INTERBANC "B" SHARES [Ticker not in Bigcharts]
FRYSYP  - FERREYROS COMMON SHARES 144A     [Ticker not in Bigcharts]
FERXY   - FERREYROS COMMON SHARES LEVEL-I  [Ticker not in Bigcharts]
TLNEY   - TELE 2000 COMMON SHARES LEVEL I  [Ticker not in Bigcharts]

Tin and Nickel rising, so mining and minerals companies and countries ought to be doing well. (Or the $US is dropping faster…) Silver doing the same “surfing down” that gold is doing. Which leaves me wondering why BVN is dropping. Not a good sign. (Perhaps just tied into low price contracts and will reverse later, or they mine silver ;-), but needs investigation). CEMTY the cement company, is going great guns, but very volatile. And very thin. Only traded 748 shares today. So NO “market” orders, only “limit” orders… and don’t expect to exit any position in a hurry…

EWW The Mexico ETF, is beating Peru, but looking more tired. I’d likely rotate out of Mexico into Peru (were I actually IN Mexico) and back after Mexico “takes a dip”.

It does look like there are some “spikes” in volume near bottoms (but not as clean as I’d like due to being thinly traded) and some spikes in volatility then too. Tops have some ‘low volatility’ indications, and some drop off in volume, but not definitive (i.e. there are exceptions). Momentum seems to “call the ball” relatively well. (Visualize the change of slope of the first derivative line or the “envelope” of the dark blobs. Below zero and infect toward up, buy. Above zero and inflect toward down, sell. Flat lined at the middle with little dips – dead money, but for ‘slow traders’ looks like that gives a lot of time to prepare order plans.)

Overall Conclusion: Reasonable place to put a modest position. Looks like “dipped” at the moment and so the next “rise” ought to be about 2 months out. I’d wait for about late March / early April and then buy in (but watch sooner just to make sure I’ve got this cycle pegged right from only one look ;-) SCCO for folks looking for more “juice”, but watch it closely as copper can move fast and that will ‘crack the whip’ on copper miners.

List of ADRs here (h/t Adolfo for the link):
http://www.site-by-site.com/adr/latin/adr_peru.htm

Contents of EPU ETF here:

http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/EPU.htm

At the time of this posting:

CREDICORP LTD 20.93%
SOUTHERN COPPER CORP 12.71%
CIA DE MINAS BUENAVENTUR-ADR 9.82%
GRANA Y MONTERO SAA 5.46%
ALICORP S.A.-COMUN 4.93%
VOLCAN CIA MINERA SAA-CMN B 4.81%
INTERCORP FINANCIAL SER INC 3.92%
HOCHSCHILD MINING PLC 3.70%
MINSUR SA-INVERSIONES 3.06%
RIO ALTO MINING LTD 2.97%
Total 72.32%

Yahoo! Finance page on EPU: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=epu&ql=1

Yet to do:

Track down those tickers not in Bigcharts and see if Yahoo or others have them.
Check the tickers with my broker to see if they are still traded.
Find any other Peru related tickers, funds, bonds, etc.
Put in links to any other interesting sources on Peru financial markets.

I don’t know that all of those will be done, but anyone who has time and interest can “so what they like” and add links in comments.

So that’s what we have “for now” on Peru stocks and tickers.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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6 Responses to Peru Stocks

  1. adolfogiurfa says:

    @E.M.: Peru is passing through a “baby boomers” phenomena, where almost 50% of the GDP it is not what anybody could think of, but from small businesses and industries based in local sales. Thus, if the first world´s Bond-armageddon happens, it won´t be felt catastrophically.
    There is a lot of “informal gold mining” taking place, which the government has tried to either “formalize” or to stop it, unsuccessfully of course. Such irregular gold was currently being sold at US$9.- per gram ($279 per troy ounce).
    As you can see third world people do not swallow the media tales as easily as you do and try to survive in these “interesting times”.

  2. p.g.sharrow says:

    @Adolfo says that Peruvian raw gold is about $279 per oz, that would be about $500 fine-24ct-troy oz. The last time I checked the average the world cost of “winning” gold was $600 per fine oz. At $1600 market, I would say the world gold market is a bit over priced.
    “Informal” gold mining is a mark of economic hard times for poor people. A good measure of desperation to eat, make a living. I would rather grow food then mine gold by hand, to make a living. I have done both. pg

  3. adolfogiurfa says:

    @P.G. That is the price that buyers buy gold to “informal” miners. (quicksilver extracted)

  4. E.M.Smith says:

    @Adolfo:

    I assume the “you do” in your “buying the tales” is a “royal you” and not me in particular… I’ve been pretty good about “not buying stories” and just reading charts… “There’s always a story. -E.M.Smith”…

    The “First World” vs “Second World” vs “Third World” descriptors have lost much of their original use. They are now more geographic markers. The “First World” was the industrialized west, now more the de-industrialized in decline “west” (is Europe more “west” than the USA?…) while the “Second World” of communist states (Soviet Russia and communist Warsaw Pact et. al.) has pretty much imploded, then become about as capitalist as “the West” – more so in some cases. Ditto China. That just leaves the “non-industrial post-colonial undeveloped world”, that has rapidly industrialized and modernized and is basically the same as Europe of not that many years back in many (most?) ways. Is Brazil really an undeveloped post-colonial primitive economy? Or is it more accurately a “modern western industrial state”?

    Health metrics and economic quality of life are nearly the same in much (most?) of the “third world” is about the same as in the “first world” and in most countries out of Africa and a few other backwaters is largely indistinguishable from the range in Europe (including over into European Russia).

    In particular, in South America, the divergences have been more tied to things like the ongoing Vote For Stupid in Argentina vs pragmatic Peru / Chile.

    @P.G.Sharrow:

    It can also indicate the easy presence of gold. I grew up near Oroville California. A town named for Ore… You could put a pan in a river and get “color” pretty quick. Lots of folks had “claims” along the creeks up there and would spend weekends picking up a few $hundred while camping in the woods. Biggest problem was just that there were not a lot of places not-claimed where you could set up. The open places tended to be low gold and hard work ;-)

    So there were still a fair number of folks doing “informal gold mining” even in California even during the boom times of the ’60s ’70s and 80′s (and likely still today).

    But yes, it’s hard work. I did it a little bit. Just enough to realize I really didn’t like using a shovel while standing waist deep in 33 F water ;-) But my “dive master” had customers with full on mini-dredges used in the local rivers diving gold. Had a nice bottles of flakes and a few nuggets to show for it. Some of them driving new trucks ;-)

    Oh, and don’t forget the “risk premium” of “informal gold” of unknown purity vs an assayed formal ingot with a refiners mark on it and known provenance… Our local assay office (still in use when I was a kid!) would prove your gold and then it sold for more… They had a model of the ‘giant nugget’ that had been found in the area back in the ’49ers era. It was about the size of a loaf of bread and with a giant quartz crystal stuck to it. Just to given an idea of the gold in the local river… ( I know you are from ‘up near there’ so likely know all this, but I think it is worth mentioning. Folks have different motivations. Many of the local gold miners didn’t do it for food, they did it for fun and “free money”… a sense of “adventure”…)

  5. adolfogiurfa says:

    @E.M.: Yes, that “you” only includes only conventional and convenient fools.
    As for the the majority of third world countries and its behavior I will (approximately) quote an Indian Swami and physicist, who in the 1970´s came here to give some lectures: He said that a “culture” is defined as a human group of people, which being more than 25,000 years old have inherited some common cultural traits which cannot be easily change but just apparently.
    Facts are like this: Anyone of the first world can come here and tell whatever lies or tales he/she wants; as a response he/she will receive respectful treatment, smiles, even deep bows….but, after that he or she leaves the scene, they will very properly and most adequately send them to their favorite hell.
    Neither Brazil nor Argentina and part of Chile are among these peoples. That is why in my country, Peru, occidental “laws” have a very relative importance and as soon as the prevalent Roman Empire Institutions collapse (the “first world”, from the “Lex Romana” to “S.P.Q.R” -senates , congresses or “Republics” everywhere) traditional human culture and common sense will replace them everywhere.
    So, keep it cool and buy more popcorn!
    As the old Chinese sage said: “Wait at your front door….and you´ll see the corpse of your enemy passing by “

  6. adolfogiurfa says:

    You see? It´s really funny!, now YOU know what that Mayan thing was all about :-)…..
    Cycles you know….

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