The Temperature Problem (c)
I’m going to be pulling together several existing postings here. I will also be adding postings that ‘fill in the gaps’ and that will provide ‘wrappers’ to pull parts together.
IMHO there is now enough information and detail that it really needs to be assembled into a more coherent whole, and with better flow. It will likely take me a while to get it all done, though, so you all get to watch the process ;-)
In some cases, I map put a link here to a prior posting, but then do a ‘rewrite’ of the contents to update it and make it match better the overall flow. So don’t be surprised if there is some duplication and / or some overlap.
This page will be a bit of a ‘scratch space’ table of contents. After the whole thing is done and worked out, the last step will be to make a final TOC / Index and intro pages. (That is, a replacement are rewrite of this ‘working space’ into a final copy).
So don’t be too surprised if things here tend to change a bit and wander over time.
With that, here’s a first cut at a first draft of a working layout. (Enough caveats for you? ;-)
1) Introduction to what the Global Warming folks assert about warming and temperatures. Why are temperatures not a very good way to measure heat gain. General overview of heat vs temperature and enthalpy.
2) The shifting past. How various ‘data diddling’ has repeatedly changed the past. How can we ever know what is real when the past is constantly being rewritten?
3) Data Quality and Coverage are lacking.
Link to the work of Watts et. al. and pointers to some of my ‘by latitude’ and ‘by altitude’ and such studies (add graphs).
4) Weather, Climate, Time
The 30 year average of weather is not climate. Climate takes a millennial scale POV. Include various examples of longer term weather cycles, such as PDO, AMO, LIA / Bond Events. Include some of the lunar cycle information:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2013/01/29/arctic-standstill-tropical-saros/ So looking at a 30 year “baseline” or a 30 year “average” and trend is just always going to find mistaken trends.
Include ’70s New Ice Age scare, then AGW scare, then 16 year standstill.
Include prior postings on ‘deep time’ events of history ( fall of Akkad. Egypt Old Kingdom. LIA.) So looking at modern temperatures over such a short time span is a bit daft.
5) Averaging Failure Fails
a) A sidebar on why you can not average temperatures and have meaning. Intrinsic property problem and type of mean problem.
b) The problem of false precision. Averaging can not remove systematic error. UHI is an example of systematic error. Airports are an example of systematic error. The MMTS conversion and Stevenson Screen paint are systematic errors. Any precision beyond whole degrees is false precision.
c) Temperature is not heat. The old two pans example. One at 0 C the other at 20 C and what is the average? Well… how big are those pans and is that 0 C frozen, or not?
d) Ocean surface vs overturning / cooling mixing forces. That can shift temperatures with no heat gain or loss. We are not integrating to depth.
e) Temperature measured in free air is at best an approximation, at worst, an error of large size. (Forest vs tarmac temps and water flow, for example).
f) Where you ‘start time’ determines your trend. ( Uupsalla Sweden trend example. CET.)
There will be more. Right now I need a nap. Virus is still got me slowed down…