Deliberate Nursing Home Infection – Italy, New York, Dem. States

It looks like all the extreme hot spots with high death rates in the aged were places that had government edicts to send Chinese Wuhan Covid patients to nursing homes full of old people. Doing exactly the wrong thing.

The following video goes into that. The only complaint I have is his assertion that masks don’t work and are not needed. That there is no “scientific” evidence for masks. There’s plenty of evidence for them working to drop R0 to the point where the epidemic drops off in places like South Korea, Taiwan and other countries. The mask is not to stop you getting sick, it is to stop you from making others sick. If it happens to help prevent you getting sick, that is just an added benefit.

What works is to have the working age population put on a mask and get back to work. We have existence proofs that this is sufficient. What is “exactly wrong” is to send infected patients into nursing homes full of elderly high risk people.

So was this just stupidity, or is it the usual Socialist Urge to create a “Crisis” to exploit (and kill off the available “useless eaters” in the process if possible)? It seems to be “what they do”. Regularly, and reliably.

We know children (especially if playing outdoors so they have good vitamin D levels) are at near zero risk of death and very low risk of actual illness. Children ought to be in school and playing. Get it NOW and never again. We know that those under 60 years old tend to moderate symptoms with only a few deaths. We know that proper vitamin status and zinc supplementation reduces severity and risk (as zinc is an anti-viral and disrupts virus replication). We ought to have everyone under 60 back at work wearing a mask if desired AND being advised to get some sun, take a multivitamin pill with added vitamin D, C, E, and zinc. Then, any who develop symptoms can get a dose of the zinc iononphore du jour (be it quercetin, quinine, chloroquin, hydroxychloroquin, or something else) and if that’s not enough, proceed to stronger therapies as their symptoms worsen (such as the ivermectin / doxycycline mix shown to work in Bangaladesh)

Updated: May 19, 2020 04:59 IST
By Press Trust of India | Posted by Niyati Singh , Dhaka

A Bangladeshi medical team led by a senior doctor has claimed that their research on the combination of two widely used drugs has yielded “astounding” results in curing the patients with acute symptoms of the coronavirus that has created havoc worldwide and claimed the lives of over 312,000 people globally.

The claim by the Bangladeshi medical team, which includes prominent physicians from the country, comes amidst the desperate global attempts for a remedy to the deadly coronavirus.

“We have got astounding results. Out of 60 Covid-19 patients, all recovered as the combination of the two drugs were applied,” said Professor Dr Md Tarek Alam, the head of medicine department at private Bangladesh Medical College Hospital (BMCH).

Alam, a reputed clinician in Bangladesh, said a frequently used antiprotozoal medicine called Ivermectin in a single dose with Doxycycline, an antibiotic, yielded virtually the near-miraculous result in curing the patients with Covid-19.

“My team was prescribing the two medicines only for coronavirus patients, most of them initially reporting with respiratory problems with related complaints, later to be tested Covid-19 positive,” he said.

Bangladesh has so far reported 20,995 coronavirus cases. A total of 314 people have lost their lives in the country due to the disease.

Claiming that the efficacy of the drug developed by them was such that patients recovered from the virus within 4 days, he said, adding that there were no side effects of it.

“We first ask them to be tested for Covid-19 and when found coronavirus positive we apply the drugs . . . they are recovering within four days”.

So tell me again just WHY we need EVERYONE to stay in doors away from the sun, have their immune ability drop as their vitamin D level drops, and run out of money to buy food for proper nutrition further damaging their immunity?

A “lockdown” made sense when we had no clue what was going to happen, there were no treatments, and the visible evidence was for death rates of 10%+ BUT now we know a lot of folks have very mild / no symptoms so the IFR is closer to 1% (or less), mostly in folks with other problems and immune compromised, that Innate Immunity is key to stopping the disease and that innate immunity is compromised in folks with low Vit D & C & Zinc status (and easily fixed…), and we have existence proofs of several treatments that reduce severity or completely halt the disease (especially if given early with zinc). We also have existence proof that simply wearing a mask in areas with active community spread strongly curtails community spread AND we have evidence that staying in lockdown perpetually eventually has contamination get into the home and then those immune compromised folks in close contact spread it around in the home.

IMHO, it’s time to get out and get some sun!

FWIW: I’m practicing what I am preaching. I entered “lockdown” before the government called for it. I’m in a “high risk category” of folks old enough to be on Medicare and I’m a male. The spouse and I have been taking Vit C, D & E with a zinc supplement in my multivitamin. We’ve also been doing “sun time” of about 15 minutes to 1/2 hour near noon each day. About 4 weeks ago, we started doing regular shopping runs and other “normal” things. Visits to the chiropractor, hardware store, gardening shop, car repair shop, etc. I do wear a mask in stores. Realize I’m in the center of one of the hotter hot spots of the nation. A place where it started early and with Community Spread: Santa Clara County, California. All I can say is “so far so good”. But I can add that my risk would not be ANY higher in a small clothing store, barber shop, or sporting goods store than it is at Walmart, Home Depot, or my mechanic shop.

Let the 60-somethings work from home, and / or wear mask and gloves at work. If an N-95 protects a health care worker it can protect a grocery clerk or office worker. It takes about 2 minutes to be trained on how to use one. Also, as the virus dies in about 24 hours on paper (faster in heat and sun), I just leave mine on the dash of the car and next day it’s “good to go” (though I only need it every other day) so my draw on the N-95 supply has been zero after my initial buy at the start of this whole mess, months ago. (A few at the hardware store, before the industrial dust masks were approved for medical use).

At this point, we know all we need to know to get back to work safely, and to treat those who do fall ill sufficiently to mitigate the worst of it. At this point it just requires some PSAs (Public Service Announcements) to let folks know to up their Vitamin & Mineral levels, wear a mask if desired, and how to do it properly. In my experience here, about 90% of the population is already doing mask and gloves relatively properly.

Oh, and we need to get the Blue State Democrat Governors to stop making the “crisis” worse by doing stupid things like sending Wuhan Covid patients to elder care nursing homes, demanding folks stay indoors out of the sun depleting their Vitamin D levels, and banning the harvesting of Apples and other crops.

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Posted in Covid, Political Current Events | Tagged , , , , , , | 33 Comments

Australia, China, Fungible Commodities

What Is Happening

Recently, Australia stated there ought to be an investigation into the Chinese Wuhan Covid Virus, where it originated, how it spread, what could have been done better. This is pretty much standard procedure for any Bad Thing that happens. China, being pissy petty dictators unaccustomed to open inquiry into their mistakes, decided that acting like a bully and spitting in the eye of their customers / suppliers was the way to go. (“Intelligence is limited, but stupidity knows no bounds. -E.M.Smith”)

So China shut off beef imports from 4 Australian meat packers and slapped something like an 80% tariff on Australian Barley along with making “Nice family you got there, be a shame if something happened to it…” noises about the Iron Ore trade and Australian wines, along with the roughly 1/4 of Australian University students who are from China (sons and daughters of The Communist Party) and all their loverly tuition money. This is commonly called Blackmail and is considered a criminal act in some circles. In all circles it is NOT something one party does to another when they respect that party, or when they value them.

So what’s a fella to do, eh?

Well, first off, the LAST thing you EVER do with a bully is give in. You may take a thumping but the bully will remember the hits he took. As my Sensei said: “When too tigers fight, one of them dies and the other is seriously wounded”. Do not be a sheep, be the 2nd Tiger. So first thing to settle on is to “give as good as you take”. Put a “compensatory tariff” on Chinese imports. Make it clear that will be removed when China starts behaving like a partner instead of a bully.

Second, realize that China is NOT playing a competitive capitalist level playing field game. They are playing entirely to strip you of assets. They are not “investing” in Australia. Stop calling it that. They are buying control of Australian Assets. As EVERY Chinese international company is a State Sponsored Enterprise, they can draw on the full financial clout of the Chinese Central Bank. That means their cost of borrowing can be zero or even negative. YOUR companies can not do that. This means that a Chinese Company can get free money to stay in business until YOUR companies are driven out of business. Then they can buy any and all assets, vertically integrate (silo) and ship all the goods, factories, profits, and jobs back to China. So right out the gate, do not let them list on your stock exchange unless they follow YOUR rules for transparency, book keeping, etc. Second, do NOT let them buy a vertical integrated chunk of your economy to control. Put those rules on the books now.

Frankly, were it up to me, I’d never let any State Sponsored Enterprise buy ANY business / assets in my country. You are simply handing CONTROL of that sector to a foreign government. Economies of scale extend to financing and result in a “Fattest Wallet Wins” effect. The company with the most money gets the cheapest loan rates and can just crush any competitors. State owned enterprises have an infinite sized wallet as they can draw on the national ability to print money and issue zero interest loans.

Fungible Commodities

OK, with that basic context, back on commodities.

The key word here is “Fungible”. That means any one is pretty much the same as any other. You can substitute Red Winter Wheat from Canada with that from Russia or the USA and not really notice a difference. One dollar bill spends the same as any other. This is pretty much the rule in commodities. That’s why it is so competitive a market. (Compare with a patented drug or a proprietary computer chip – it is one of a kind and available from one source only.)

So what’s the nature of beef and barley? They are fungible commodities. If I buy malting barley to make beer, I don’t really see much difference between that from Australia and that from Canada.

Now the 2nd key concept is “market equilibrium”. Right now the amount of barley sold is pretty much in equilibrium with that demanded, globally. No real glut nor shortage. If China shifts a Million Tons of barley purchases to Canada, then someone who was buying Canadian barley is not going to get his Million Tons and will be looking for who has some. Enter Australia. So your next strategic thing to do is just look at where China buys barley, and find out who’s short. Then market to them. Your shipping changes, but not much else.

Similarly beef, except right now Beef is in short supply. Chinese Wuhan Covid Virus has caused beef supply disruptions in Europe and the USA among other places. You ought to have no problem finding customers. But beef does not store as well as barley. You can store barley for years in silos if desired, but beef takes expensive freezers (and even then can’t be stored for years without quality suffering).

With Brexit in progress, the UK is still under EU rules. So it is unlikely that the UK can take a lot more unless you already meet E.U. standards and have a competitive price. But if that is the case, ring up the UK and ask if they want it as steaks or Sunday Roasts.

So what else to do? First up, the Australian Government ought to announce a price support / commodity storage program. Essentially state that they will buy the barley at the regular price if no other buyer can be found, and then store it in silos until demand picks up again. Take the heat off the farmers in the short run until new markets can be found. Don’t have silos? Build them! Call it a jobs program…

For beef, maybe every Australian just needs to load up their freezer and have a bit more Steak for a while ;-) In addition to that, it might make sense to establish a beef jerky operation to turn some of it into a higher priced and longer storage form. I know I’d buy a few bags of Outback Jerky…

Of Wine & Fodder

As per Australian Wines, well, the whole world loves a drop, so just keep shipping them! Beer too!

There’s also one other interesting point. Australia last year was a bit short on feed grains for cattle. Well, if you have extra barley, you can put it in cattle feed. Note that grain for cattle feed can have any of several grains in it in various amounts, depending on what is in excess. That fungible thing again. So ship some of your barley over to your cattle feed lots. There’s also an interesting new tech that sprouts the barley into fodder mats that are fed to cattle / dairy herds. As Australia can be a bit thin on rain and pasture, this would be a great way to turn your barley into cattle fodder. You folks are already doing this, so just do more of it!

What has revolutionized sprouted barley fodder as a viable feed alternative is high efficiency fluorescent and LED lighting and more affordable climate control systems. LED lighting in particular is very energy efficient with little excess heat generated. Although LED is more expensive to buy upfront, the long-term operating expenses are greatly reduced. LEDs also last much longer than any other option, and do not lose output over time.

Many of the advances made in sprouted barley fodder have come from Australia–several of the systems used here are based on their designs. During Australia’s severe droughts, barely fodder provides valuable nutrition when fresh pasture is not available.
Here in the U.S., the sprouted barley fodder is often brought into the ration to replace protein previously supplied by dry grain. Of course, it is also beneficial in the non-pasture season to bring fresh forage to the animals.

As the “feed conversion ratio” for cattle is about 10:1, every pound of steak takes 10 pounds of barley. You can very rapidly soak up a LOT of barley feeding cattle. So another easy thing to do is for the Government to offer interest free loans to cattle operations to buy and operate a barley fodder station for their cattle. Why ship cheap grain to China when you can turn it into very nice very expensive steaks and nice high priced cheeses?

By setting up more of those fodder stations, you make barley fungible with other fodder sources.

How Much Global Barley Trade Is There?

Or put another way: With whom is your barley fungible in terms of suppliers? How much?

Unfortunately this is in dollars, not tons, but as the price ought to be about the same (modulo shipping costs / discounts) it’s good enough. Note that Australia is in the #3 spot. Argentina is almost the same size, but after that top 4, the rest just don’t have the volume to cover Australia. So start checking on sales from France, Russia, and Argentina. Find out who’s being left short of supply by Chinese buying, and make them an offer.

Below are the 15 countries that exported the highest dollar value worth of barley during 2019.

France: US$1.5 billion (22.5% of total barley exports)
Russia: $762 million (11.3%)
Australia: $726.7 million (10.8%)
Argentina: $719.8 million (10.7%)
Canada: $532.1 million (7.9%)
Ukraine: $445.1 million (6.6%)
United Kingdom: $370.4 million (5.5%)
Germany: $309.5 million (4.6%)
Kazakhstan: $299.5 million (4.5%)
Romania: $211.2 million (3.1%)
Denmark: $118.2 million (1.8%)
Estonia: $80.9 million (1.2%)
Hungary: $79.3 million (1.2%)
Lithuania: $55.3 million (0.8%)
Czech Republic: $50.4 million (0.7%)

Pay particular attention to France who have been growing volume lately. OTOH, shipping costs from France can’t be all that cheap. Canada would be an easier replacement source (assuming China is shipping in their national carrier ships and not via rail so needs to divert the ships). But Canada will be hard pressed to deliver the volume. Lets face it: Australia is a VERY large player in this market at about 11% and that’s not going to be easy to pick up from the other growers. Especially as weather has been “not so good” for growing grains lately in several areas.

Australia: Plan B needed to secure feed grains, looming Chinese tariff threat on country’s barley exports

11-May-2020 By Jane Byrne

Australia’s livestock production representatives are exploring options to facilitate the safe import of feed grains, given that ongoing drought conditions are putting a squeeze on grain supplies for the country’s feedlots.

Australia Fodder

Australia Fodder

So given the need to IMPORT feed grains for cattle, why not just ship your barley surplus (if any remains…) from one coast to the other?

Barley comes in a couple of forms. Barley for eating and barley for malting. Basically cattle don’t care about the particulars of the barley quite as much as do makers of beer and spirits. So to the extent that Barley is of the malting kind and you don’t want to sell it out cheap for cattle feed, I’d suggest setting up a malting operation in Australia and make it into malt. The only reason to send it to China to malt it is to get costs down a modest amount from cheap labor. Making malt is pretty simple. Spread the grain out in a flat floor area of a barn and keep it wet for a few days. Turn it from time to time. When ready, roast it and grind it. It is mostly machinery and very few workers, so the labor costs can’t be that big a part of it. Get yourself set up to make and sell malt and tell China they can buy that if they want.

I find it interesting that this Chinese paper is pushing the FUD (Fear Uncertainty & Doubt) aspect and how much this is a Big Risk for Australia, when in fact in fungible commodities all that happens is folks change partners and shipping plans. But it does have an interesting insight into the Silo For Cheap operations of China.

An Australian native working for a brewery in Shanghai has found himself in the middle of the developing trade dispute between China and Australia, although he is not yet hitting the panic button about the potential Chinese tariffs on barley imports.


“It could impact us quite badly as we buy Australian barley and malt, and process them in China where it is cheaper,” the brewer, who did not want to be named due to trade sensitivities, said.

So is an Australian Beer company using China as a cheap place to malt their barley? Just tell them to pack up the operation and come back home!

The bottom line on Barley is that when China shifts to another supplier it does not decrease global demand. Furthermore, there’s several destination products for Barley. Animal feed, beer, dinner plates, breakfast cereals, and even whisky.

Australian whisky is whisky produced in Australia. As of February 2020, there are 288 registered distilleries in Australia. In 2019, Australia had 210 distilleries listed, showing significant year-on-year growth.

The Australian Distillers Association is the peak representative body.

The Australian distilling industry is one of the fastest growing and most diverse in the world.
A multitude of styles are being made today in all corners of Australia, including single malt, rye and blended whisky.

Distillery breakdown per state.

Victoria and New South Wales both have 69 distilleries. Tasmania have 53, Queensland has 32, South Australia has 31, Western Australia has 30 and Australian Capital Territory has four active distillers.

As at the end of 2017, there were more than 120 listed distilleries in Australia with 31 of these in Tasmania.

Australia’s largest concentration of whisky distilleries is found on the island state of Tasmania. These distilleries are better known in other parts of the world than in their own country. All of them are very small producers – in comparison to other parts of the world.

The majority of Australian whisky producers make spirit in the Single malt whisky style.

So you have a growing high value industry in making whisky. Do more of it!

You make it, I’ll drink it!

In Conclusion

NEVER EVER give in to a bully tactic. Announce boldly that you are ready and able to just ignore them and walk away, and if punched, punch back harder. Have the government announce low / zero interest loans for expansion of barley fodder operations, domestic malting floors, and both beer and whisky production for export. Pointedly say that China will be welcome to buy the beer and whisky instead of the barley…

Set up roller mills to turn the barley into flakes (it is easier on the teeth that way) and into animal feeds along with breakfast cereals. I’ve a fondness for rolled barley instead of oat meal for breakfast. It’s a very tasty alternative and has more of an energy lift to it IMHO. Less blood sugar impact too as the fiber runs all through the barley not just in the coat. More people ought to discover barley as a breakfast cereal, so start those PSA adverts running.

Take back the value added products chain and stop just being a seller of the very lowest value commodity at the bottom of the supply chain.

And for the love of Mike, do not let China buy control of vertically integrated silos of your country using State Sponsored Enterprises with the Communist Party Infinite National Bank Wallet. They just want to engage in asset stripping and putting you out of work and off your land. They are NOT doing free market anything, it is predatory merchantilism from end to end.

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Posted in World Economics | Tagged , , , , , | 16 Comments

California Winter Weather In May!?

Just bizarre. We often get our last rain in March. Sometimes February. Rarely a bit in April. May is summer like and hot / dry. So yesterday it was cloudy and sprinkled a bit. Now at 4:30 AM it’s a decent rain, and has been for a while. Checking NOAA I find California having winter weather advisories in the mountains and flood warnings in the Central Valley. We are having a winter weather pattern in what ought to be late Spring verging on Summer weather pattern times. I.E. dead dry.

May Winter Storm

May Winter Storm

Advisories top May, 18 2020

Advisories top May, 18 2020

Advisories bottom May, 18 2020

Advisories bottom May, 18 2020

A couple of representative warnings. First, the flood warning:

Event: Flash Flood Watch

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of northern California…including the following
areas…Central Sacramento Valley…Motherlode…Mountains
Southwestern Shasta County to Western Colusa County…
Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley…Northern Sacramento
Valley…Northern San Joaquin Valley…Shasta Lake Area /
Northern Shasta County…Southern Sacramento Valley…West
Slope Northern Sierra Nevada and Western Plumas County/Lassen

* From 10 AM PDT this morning through this evening

* Some of the thunderstorms today will have intense downpours that
will have a chance of producing flash flooding in the Watch
area. Thunderstorms that develop over the northern end of the
Sacramento Valley will also be very slow moving which will
increase the risk of flash flooding.

* The watch area also includes but is not limited to the recent
burn scars of the Camp and Carr wildfires.
Instructions: A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Target Area:
Central Sacramento Valley
Mountains Southwestern Shasta County to Western Colusa County
Northeast Foothills, Sacramento Valley
Northern Sacramento Valley
Northern San Joaquin Valley
Shasta Lake Area, Northern Shasta County
Southern Sacramento Valley
West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada
Western Plumas County, Lassen Park

Then one of several Winter Storm Warnings:

Event: Winter Storm Warning
…Snow Showers and Strong Wind for Higher Mountain Elevations
into Tuesday…

.Late season Pacific storm will bring periods of moderate snow
and strong wind to the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada and
mountains of Western Plumas County into Tuesday.
Travel into the mountains should be avoided during this time
period as slick roads, lowered visibility, travel delays and
chain controls are expected.


* WHAT…Heavy snow occurring. Plan on difficult travel
conditions, including during the morning commute. Additional
snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with localized amounts up
to 13 inches, are expected.

* WHERE…Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.

* WHEN…Until midnight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Be prepared for significant reductions in
visibility at times.

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means there will be snow covered
roads and limited visibilities. Travel is not recommended while
the warning is in effect. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency.The latest road conditions for the state you are
calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
Target Area:
Western Plumas County, Lassen Park

This may have happened before, so warrents some digging, but I sure don’t remember it happening. It will be rare in any case.

IF this is happening more broadly, with late start to the growing season (as we had last year) and an early start to winter, fields too wet to plant or harvest; food supply issues could get worse. Though the USDA says planting has gone well so far:

Hey! Australia! Got any spare barly or beef you can sell to the northern hemisphere? I think we’re maybe going to need it if this keeps up.

Checking “back east” with “My Radar” app, they have stormy weather too and red flood marked rivers.

Midwest radar May 18, 2020

Midwest radar May 18, 2020

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Posted in AGW and Weather News Events | 23 Comments

Spain Wuhan Virus IFR 1.16%

In Spain, testing 70,000 people for antibodies, actual Infection Fatality Rate is 1.16%

For the USA, if everyone gets exposed to reach herd immunity at 70%, we would expect about:

340 Million x .7 x 0.0116 = 2.76 Million deaths. IF, somehow, we can cut that in half or to 1/3 with better medical care, we still end up at 1.4 Million to 900,000 deaths.

One complexity in that: IF a lot of folks, like children, toss off the disease without antibody formation (say, by innate immunity, which IMHO is probable) those numbers could end up much lower.

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Posted in Covid | 91 Comments