I No Longer Care About The Rage Machine

I used to care. Some time ago I’d have my empathy saying “Those folks are hurting, I’m concerned about why”. Somewhere over the last few years, that’s “left the building”.

It’s like when you have a new kid, and the first year you are jumping up and just MUST find out why they are crying and “fix it”. Then, somewhere between 2 and 3 years old (parents will remember the “Terrible Twos” stories) there’s that point where they start doing Tantrum Display For Effect and your emotional engagement drops to near zero. Limited almost entirely to irritation at needing to choose between a good spanking, and just carting them off to their room and closing the door with them on the other side. (When “out”, one of us would just cart the kid out of the restaurant to The Car, where they could wail away without bothering anyone and without any positive reinforcement).

I’m in the Grumpy Parent mode now, with respect to DNC / Soros / GEB funded Street Theatre Tantrums by the Rage Machine Useful Idiots. I no longer care. They just need a good spanking and putting to bed.

Sadly, we’re the “Out Of Town” spouse and the one “at home” just wants to coddle them and complain on social media (metaphor for Soros’ Bought DAs doing “catch and release”, Cowed Police doing “watchful waiting” (for end of shift), and the Lying Propaganda Machine Media saying that a spanking would be child abuse…)

So the DNC / Soros / GEBs have tuned up their Crying Machine along with their Break & Burn Machine and turned them loose on the streets. I don’t care anymore. Don’t even watch any of it on the s”news”. My only concern about it is assuring my weaponry is in good condition and I’m alert to any road rats in front of me when driving. But then that’s now a habit anyway, what with 3 years or so of BLM Riots, Antifa Attacks on the innocent, and Asymmetric Legal Abuse by the fraudulent non-Justice Departments.

I know I’m on my own when out and about. I’m prepared for it, and have been long enough to no longer need to think about it. I’ve relocated to The Free State Of Florida, so I’m isolated from 99.99% of it anyway (presently residing in a tourist area where the only “action” is folks deciding what entertainment to drop $100 / head on today) I could have gotten a CCW on arrival, but haven’t even cared enough to do that. I’m in a county where the Sheriff has said he likes it when his citizens “blow you back out the door” if invading a home, so it isn’t like I’m all that likely to be bothered anyway.

But the surprise for me was that complete lack of ANY interest in the Street Riot Theatre anymore. Not even morbid curiosity. “Just Another un-Reality Show”. All fake rage and all idiots on parade. I’d rather watch Rediculousness for that kind of idiots on parade show. I already know the Street Theatre plot (the GEB Puppeteers haven’t changed it in years). The character development is near zero with a mix of Cry Actors, Rage Screamers, and a mob of mopey Placard Zombies staggering in the background. The Show is lacking any show quality anymore.

So I just “click on” when it shows up in the channel surfing. Rather like the 6-Jan Congressional Lie-Fest Show. I already know the plot and characters (the re-runs of the Impeachment Show Trial already burned any novelty in them) and the Fake Drama is just too painful to watch.

“New Evidence!” and “Subpoenaed Witnesses!!” Just ZZZzzzz fodder. They have no evidence as nothing happened ( I was there and saw nothing happen as the Trump Supporters were still listening to Trump Speak when the False Flag Entrapment Event was already underway 1.8 miles away. We were “exhorted” to “walk peacefully down Pennsylvania Avenue” and to “ask our Congress to do the right thing“. (Yeah, hard to get excited about “do the right thing” as cause for pre-election Impeachment III, The Rage Machine Rises!…) We stopped at the car about 300 yards from the Capital grounds and it was already on the radio as having been underway for a good long while. We were not at the rear of the crowd. The Trump Supporters were not near the Capitol when the FBI / Antifa et. al. launched their entrapment & false flag event. (No less than 3 of them tried to get me to go “into the building” or “up on the steps”, and moved on to try to entrap another guy when I said “No, that’s not a good idea.”)

So knowing all that, the Kangaroo Kourt Kongress Show is just stoopid and stays on the screen about 1/10 of a second as the “skip” button gets pressed. Ditto the BLM Bawlers and the Antifa Ass-Hats and the Kongress Klowns. Just no “there there” worth a moment’s thought. Metaphorically, I’m out of town and the D.A.-Spouse is not willing to spank, so “Oh, look at the time, got a big meeting tomorrow, gotta go dear…” and then watch the hockey game (so far Hockey has stuck to sports, not politics ;-) Sorry Tampa Bay lost, but happy the Colorado Avalanche coach is now the 1st Ever to get all three trophy’s from the 2 minor leagues and the Stanley Cup. Way to go Coach!)

So what is more interesting than the Rage Machine Show today? Going to the pool for an hour. Deciding what is for lunch. Looking at houses. Bought some dip to go with the chips. You know, really important stuff…

Maybe it’s a Florida Thing. There’s just a whole lot of “Don’t Give A Damn” and “Don’t bother me, I’m on vacation” going on here. I’m very very happy with that. You see someone in a store with a Covidian Mask on, and you think: “Oh, a tourist from Up North” or for employees “Oh, you work for one of those Asshole Companies, my condolences”.

IF I’m very lucky, I’ll get to The Boat tonight or tomorrow. Then my biggest concerns will be “Do we need to do a booze run for the boat?” and “Are we sleeping in, or going sailing tomorrow? Anyone check the weather?”

Pretty hard to give a damn about some Grass Fed Karens and Soy Boy Kens having a cry in the street in some Ass-Hat run DNC Ruined City “up north” given my priorities and choices down here in The Free State Of Florida.

With that, I gotta go. Have to pack, plan the run, and make sure I get pool time in before the afternoon rain shows up. Oh, and check the beer & wine inventory… Priorities, a man has got to know his priorities….

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Posted in Human Interest, News Related | 26 Comments

RT View of EU / Energy Issues

Sometimes, to get away from the “Ukraine Winning MASSIVELY!!!” and “EU Is Sanctioning Russia into Ruin!!!” propaganda of our “Western” Lame Stream Media, I’ll take a walk on the wild side with Russian Propaganda (via RT, who only use very subtle kinds of propaganda such as selective omission, mixed with much truth near as I can tell) and Al Jazeera and related.

Sometimes you learn new things. Sometimes you get a different POV. Sometimes you learn a new trick of Narrative Crafting ;-) In any case, it’s new and different compared to tired old CNN or histrionic MSNBC; or plodding Fox punctuated by great Tucker Rants.

So how’s that ban on Fossil Fuels working out in the EU? Have they discovered yet that it isn’t at all possible to run an industrial economy on unreliable non-dispatchable wind and sunshine?


25 Jun, 2022 15:34
HomeBusiness News
EU nation calls for U-turn on fossil fuels – media
Germany wants G7 nations to backtrack on plan to stop financing overseas fossil fuel projects

Germany is seeking to convince other G7 nations to abandon a commitment to end direct international financing of overseas fossil fuel projects by the end of this year, Bloomberg reported on Saturday, citing people familiar with the matter.

Berlin is asking Group of Seven members to “acknowledge that publicly supported investment in the gas sector is necessary as a temporary response to the current energy crisis,” according to a draft text shared with the agency.

Gee… running out of gas causes an industrial country dependent on gas to want more gas. Who knew?

Both Germany and Italy are highly dependent on Russian gas. Deliveries of Russian fuel to Germany through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline were recently reduced by 60% due to technical issues arising from sanctions imposed on Moscow over its military operation in Ukraine. The pipeline will also be shut down for 10 days in July for scheduled annual maintenance.

Yeah, a 60% cut will wake you up. Then 10 days (and counting?) of -100% in July will be fun to watch.


24 Jun, 2022 09:01
HomeBusiness News
Germany warns entire industries could stop due to gas shortage
The stoppage could be for a prolonged period, according Economy Minister Robert Habeck

So how’s that punitive Sanctions deal working for you, Germany (and the EU…)?

Now, try real hard, and imagine what it will be like with ZERO Gas & Oil when you ban Fossil Fuels… OK, now also imagine NO Coal and NO Nuclear. Yup, there you have the Green Dream Utopia! “Good luck with that”…

Germany could be forced to close down entire industrial sectors if there is a nationwide natural gas shortage, Economy Minister Robert Habeck told Der Spiegel on Friday.

“All factory activities will be suspended. It will be a disaster for some industries. And we are not talking about two days or weeks, but about a long time. We are talking about people, who will lose their jobs and regions that will lose entire industrial complexes,” Habeck said.

Maybe it’s time for me to trade in that Mercedes on a Subaru… spare parts may get hard to find…

The EU seems to have discovered how to shoot off their own toes:

Earlier this week, Habeck said the reduction of Russian gas supplies to Germany demonstrates the effectiveness of Western sanctions, and claimed EU restrictions on goods and services provided to Moscow are preventing it from using money generated through energy sales.

Last week, gas flows through the Nord Stream pipeline from Russia to Germany were cut by as much as 60%. Russian energy giant Gazprom said this was due to technical issues arising from Western sanctions.

According to Gazprom, German equipment supplier Siemens Energy failed to return gas pumping units to a compressor station on time.

The repaired turbines for the Russian pipeline are currently stuck at a Canadian maintenance facility, and are not being released due to Ottawa’s sanctions on Russia. Siemens has said Germany and Canada are seeking a solution.

Hey, Canada! “You go Girl!” Nice job sanctioning Russia and cutting off German Gas Supplies! Next week you can try planting grains without fertilizer! /sarc;

But don’t worry, Oils well that ends well:


25 Jun, 2022 09:01
HomeWorld News
German economy minister reveals extent of gas crisis
The natural gas shortage is hitting Germany harder than the 1973 oil shock, Economy Minister Robert Habeck says

Germany is facing a “more significant” crisis than during the world’s first oil shock in 1973, according to Economy Minister Robert Habeck.

In a worst-case scenario, the coming winter could see factories shut down, workers laid off, and people going into debt to pay their heating bills, the minister told Der Spiegel in a lengthy interview published on Friday.

Habeck warned that price hikes for the German population are “not over yet” and energy costs are only “gradually” being raised for consumers. “More people will be affected,” he said, adding: “we are already in a situation in which Germany has never been” due to the “gas crisis.”

If Russian natural gas supplies remain at the current low level, Germany will face severe shortages,
the minister warned, saying there will “definitely be a tough winter” and “certain industrial sectors would have to shut down.”

“That would be catastrophic for some industries… we are not talking about two days or weeks but about a long time,” and some regions might lose “entire industrial complexes,” he warned.

Habeck called on the public to save as much energy as possible, saying he personally barely heats his apartment and takes short showers: “I have never showered for five minutes in my life. I take a quick shower.”

How about when they go to ZERO? Either from EU Stupid Sanctions or from “Paris Agreement” to end your economy? Think about it… This is just a trial run for “net zero”.

Then you print a few $Trillion, shut down US Oil exploration and ban Russian oil driving gas prices to almost a triple, and get massive inflation. The result?


25 Jun, 2022 05:44
HomeBusiness News
US must endure ‘pain’ to fix inflation – IMF
The global lender says the US may have to suffer a recession in order to tame rising prices

The United States may have to endure economic “pain” in order to rein in rampant inflation, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Friday, noting that a downturn might be the “necessary price to pay” for recovery.

Speaking to reporters during a Friday press conference, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva predicted a rough ride for the US economy, which is experiencing decades-high inflation with soaring prices for a number of staple goods.

How about we just Dump Biden and get Trump back? Sounds a lot less painful to me…


24 Jun, 2022 16:13
HomeBusiness News
US Fed makes confession about skyrocketing inflation
The Federal Reserve has no tools to deal with the problem, Jerome Powell says

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday vowed to do whatever it takes to tackle inflation but admitted he can’t control some cost spikes, including food and prices at the pump.

Powell told the Senate Banking Committee he doesn’t expect gas or grocery prices to fall as a result of the Fed’s campaign of rate hikes.

“There’s really not anything that we can do about oil prices,” Powell said, explaining that “they’re set at the global level.”

Besides, that was your GOAL, wasn’t it? Cutting off US exploration and driving Russia out of the market was to cause just that price spike. Note that there wasn’t a problem under Trump.

Oh, and that several $Trillion printed… I’m sure you think that had nothing to do with it…

So, OK, “sanctions” and bullying and various other forms of coercion of our “friends” and Russia have a lot of folks hurting, though it seems Russia is doing fine. So anyone want to just Bypass SWIFT and the Sanctions on trade? Oh yeah…


25 Jun, 2022 10:39
HomeBusiness News
South American nation wants to join BRICS
President Fernandez says Argentina wants to be a full member of the emerging economies’ alliance

Argentina wants the BRICS emerging economies to admit it as a full member, President Alberto Fernandez said on Friday at the group’s 14th summit.

“Argentina wants to join this space and offer its contributions as a member of it,” Fernandez said via video link.

The BRICS nations, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, account for over 40 percent of the global population and nearly a quarter of the world’s gross domestic product.

The 14th BRICS summit was hosted by China, which currently holds the rotating presidency.

The Argentinian head of state said the group “constitutes a platform with enormous capacities to discuss and implement an agenda for the future that will lead to a better and fairer time.”

Seems you piss on people enough they don’t want to be your “friends” anymore and find other folks who are treating them better.

Tell folks they can’t play with your ball, and they just get their own:


22 Jun, 2022 13:02
HomeBusiness News
Russian SWIFT replacement ready for BRICS – Putin
Financial institutions in Brazil, India, China and South Africa can be connected to SPFS

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that banks from BRICS nations can freely connect to the System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS), Russia’s alternative to SWIFT.

While addressing a BRICS business forum, Putin said that together with its partners – Brazil, India, China and South Africa – Moscow is developing reliable alternatives for international payments.

“The Russian system for transmitting financial messages is open to connecting banks from the five countries,” he said, adding: “The geography of the use of the Russian payment system Mir is expanding.”

The Russian president also noted that work is underway to create an international reserve currency based on a basket of BRICS currencies.

SPFS has similar functionality to SWIFT and allows the transmission of messages between financial institutions in the same format. It was created by the Bank of Russia as an alternative to the Belgium-based system in 2014, when Moscow was hit with Western sanctions over the conflict in Ukraine.

In April, Russian Central Bank governor Elvira Nabiullina said most Russian lenders and 52 foreign organizations from 12 countries had received access to SPFS, and that the regulator would keep the identity of payment system members secret.

Can you say “Parallel Economy”? I knew you could…

While I’m on the subject: Welcome to the New International Oil based Reserve Currency, the Russian Ruble.

So, OK, a nice list of things to dig into. How much of that is spin? IMHO a lot less than in our LSM / MSM that’s become “All Lies All The Time”. RT leaves out things detrimental to Russia, and emphasizes the screw-ups of the West (but in a deliciously mild taunting way ;-) but rarely have they gone all Bat Shit Crazy Talk like our media. Sad to say. I also love how they cite Western sources for their stories ;-)

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Posted in Economics - Trading - and Money, Emergency Preparation and Risks, News Related | 24 Comments

Wheat, Maybe Not So Bad

I posted a comment , quoting an article, that claimed massive drought was doing dire things to the USA Wheat Crop. Digging into it a bit more, yes, there is a drought, but the effect looks more like modest regional rather than systemic and large.

We’ve seen before that the Palmer Drought Index is flawed (a drought does not end with normal rainfall. It only ends after enough surplus rain has fallen to get back to “average”. That is, you have a lot of flooding in droughts when they are approaching but not yet at an end, per the index… Assuring you are either in catastrophic floods or droughts.) So in my opinion, the lightest yellow on this picture is likely more normal than drought. That said, there’s an awful lot of dark red. So I’d figure that those areas most likely are having a significant drought.


Drought 24 June 2022

Drought 24 June 2022

As you can see, there’s a significant drought red blob in a corner of west Kansas, some of West Texas and then a lot on into the desert areas of Nevada and Southern California.

I find it amusing that the middle of Arizona is not marked as bad “drought”, simply because it is all a great sandy desert and doesn’t get much rain in any year. Hard to have abnormally dry where it’s all dry anyway ;-)

We can see that the Central Valley of California is shown as significant drought and even the mountains around it are in the Severe Drought range. (The key isn’t on this screen shot, but ranges as:

Drought Color Key

Drought Color Key

Now that original link played up that Kansas was the “Wheat State”. What is the actual range where we grow wheat? IS it all in Kansas and a bit of Texas, or more widely grown? I’ve seen it growing in California and the MidWest, so it’s in other places too. But just where?


Where Is Wheat Grown in the USA?

Where Is Wheat Grown in the USA?

Gee it looks to me like the dark drought areas are mostly in places that we are not growing wheat… Maybe a bit of the wheat from Texas or Kansas, but not all of it, and there’s a whole lot of wheat being grown in other places too.

Some places, like California central valley and Texas Panhandle and even a little bit of Northern Montana look to be having problems, but others like the Wheat Fields of Washington State and North Dakota look fine.

What’s the USDA say?


Wheat Supply, Demand, and Price Outlook for 2022/23 (Table 2) The 2022/23 outlook for U.S. wheat is for increased supplies, slightly larger total use and higher ending stocks. U.S. wheat production is projected 18 percent above 2021/22 at 1,940 million bushels on both higher area and yield. The NASS Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report estimated winter wheat seeded area at 34.4 million acres, up 2 percent from 2021/22 and the largest since 2016/17. Combined spring and durum wheat plantings for 2022/23 are also projected higher although constrained by favorable prices for alternatives beyond corn and soybeans in the Northern Plains, including minor oilseeds, other small grains, and pulses. Total wheat planted area for 2022/23 is projected at 48.0 million acres, up nearly 1.3 million acres from last year and the highest wheat area since 2016/17. The all wheat yield for 2022/23 is projected up 11 percent from last year’s drought-affected yield at 49.1 bushels per acre and is based on a long-term linear trend. A significantly larger crop more than offsets lower beginning stocks to raise 2022/23 supplies by 5 percent to 2,708 million bushels. At 1,977 million bushels, projected 2022/23 total use is up slightly from a year earlier but below the 5-year average. U.S. domestic use is projected modestly lower on reduced feed and residual use despite increased supplies as corn is expected to be more competitively priced during the summer months. Food use is projected marginally higher as population growth is expected to more than offset the effect of slightly lower per capita consumption. Higher exports are expected to more than offset lower domestic use although exports are still forecast below the 5-year average. U.S. export prices are expected to remain uncompetitive in several markets, limiting export gains. With supplies projected to increase more than total use, 2022/23 ending stocks are raised to 731 million bushels. This is 13 percent above last year but well below the 5-year average. The increased stocks and higher stocks-to-use ratio of 37.0 percent contributes to a projected 2022/23 season-average farm price of $6.80 per bushel, down $0.50 from 2021/22.

Now that could miss the mark, but what it’s saying is that more total area was planted and where it’s growing well, it’s growing really well and will yield higher than last year.

Any other opinions?


Every Friday through the U.S. harvest season (May to October), U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) and its partner organizations compile a Harvest Report. It includes updates on crop quality, harvest progress and crop conditions for hard red winter (HRW), soft red winter (SRW), hard red spring (HRS), soft white (SW) and durum wheat.

The 2021 USW Crop Quality Report provides a detailed look at the 2021 U.S. wheat harvest and includes further information on Wheat Flour Testing Methods.

Harvest Reports
Every Friday through the U.S. harvest season (May to October), U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) and its partner organizations compile a Harvest Report. It includes updates on crop quality, harvest progress and crop conditions for hard red winter (HRW), soft red winter (SRW), hard red spring (HRS), soft white (SW) and durum wheat.

The 2021 USW Crop Quality Report provides a detailed look at the 2021 U.S. wheat harvest and includes further information on Wheat Flour Testing Methods.

JUNE 24, 2022
samples tested year to date

total samples expected in 2022

U.S. states grow wheat

Favorable weather sped up harvest progress in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. SRW harvest continues to move forward with data from 49 samples available this week. HRS and northern durum planting is complete, mostly emerged, but development is lagging in North Dakota and Minnesota. The SW crop remains in good condition but 2-3 weeks behind normal.


• Crop Progress: With hot, dry, windy weather, the HRW harvest is moving quickly through the Southern Plains with
Texas 78% complete, Oklahoma 89% and Kansas 35%. In the Central Plains, combines are expected to roll in
southern Nebraska in 3-5 days and 10 days in Colorado. The PNW crop remains 2-3 weeks behind normal.
• Crop Conditions: USDA’s HRW crop conditions are holding steady with 34% of the HRW crop rated good to excellent. Currently, industry sources from the Southern Plains report below average yields but uniform kernels, good test weights and proteins averaging 12.0% (12% mb).
• Wheat Data: There are 126 samples from Texas, Oklahoma and southern Kansas in various stages of testing. Thus far, moisture is lower than last year, and test weights and protein are strong, averaging 60.5 lb/bu (79.6 kg/hl) and
12.3% (12% mb), respectively.

• Weather: Hot, dry weather is expected to continue in the Southern and Central Plains with localized rain events. Cooler, wetter weather in Wyoming will help with grain fill. For the PNW, warmer weather will help push the crop to maturity.

• Disease/Pest Pressure: Isolated reports of disease and pest pressures have been noted, including wheat streak
mosaic, barley yellow dwarf, stripe rust and sawfly. Quality issues are being closely monitored.

June 24, 2022 U.S. Wheat Associates – Weekly Harvest Report Page | 2
Legend: Protein = 12% Moisture Basis
TKW = 1000 Kernel Weight
FN = Falling Number
FM = Foreign Material
S&B = Shrunken and Broken
n/a = not available

• Crop Progress: The SRW harvest continues to progress with nearly 40% of the sampled crop now harvested with Arkansas, Alabama, North Carolina and Maryland more than 50% complete.
• Crop Conditions: Of the states with less than 20% of the crop harvested, Indiana is rated 66% good to excellent, Illinois 69% and Ohio 55%.
• Wheat Data: An additional 24 samples were analyzed this week, bringing the total to 49, with little to no change in cumulative data. For North Carolina, the average test weight and wheat protein were slightly higher than last year, and falling number was vastly improved over 2021.
• Weather: The recent weather pattern of warmer temperatures and isolated showers is expected to continue through next week.
• Disease/Pest Pressure: Isolated reports of fusarium head blight (head scab) in Kentucky and have been noted and are being closely monitored.

• Crop Progress: The SW winter is now 59% headed and the spring crop 20% representing steady progress but still behind the average. State representatives note that the crop is 2-3 weeks behind normal.
• Crop Conditions: Latest NASS report rates the winter crop at 77% good to excellent in Idaho, 80% in Oregon and 71% in Washington. Spring crop ratings are 73% good to excellent in Idaho, 54% in Oregon and 89% in Washington.
Weather: Cooler temperatures will trend hot and dry for the weekend, hopefully speeding up crop progress.

• Crop Progress: HRS planting is now complete. Emergence is behind the five-year average due to a delayed spring. By state, South Dakota and Montana are 98% emerged, Minnesota is 93% and North Dakota is 80%.
• Crop Conditions: An increase from last week, 57% of the HRS crop is now rated in good to excellent condition.
• Weather: Record-breaking temperatures over the weekend helped accelerate growth. Cooler weather is forecast, which will be beneficial for crop development.

• Crop Progress: The northern durum crop is planted with emergence at 75% in North Dakota and 92% in Montana. Warmer weather has helped North Dakota crop progress, but emergence and development are still behind average because of a cool, wet spring. Official durum crop condition reports are not yet available.
• Weather: Like HRS, above-average temperatures helped push crop development. Favorable crop conditions are forecast.

So that looks to me a whole lot like a normal year. SOME small areas having problems, others doing better than last year. There’s always somewhere with a failure and somewhere that had on last year, doing great this year. Cool in the West is making for slower than typical Soft White, but with plenty of time left.

Overall, it’s coolness that’s slowed down some crop areas and warmth is beneficial. Any claims that “Global Warming” hurt any wheat development are clearly bogus.

So now I’m feeling like that first link / story about Kansas Wheat Failure was more click bait scare story than impassionate analysis… My Bad for not verifying first.

There’s still a bit of Debbie Downer news in some reports:


US winter wheat production down 8% in 2022

05.13.2022By Matt Noltemeyer

WASHINGTON, DC, US — In the first survey-based projection of the 2022 crop, the US Department of Agriculture in its May 12 Crop Production report forecast winter wheat production in 2022 at 1.173 billion bushels, down 103.818 million, or 8%, from 1.277 billion bushels in 2021.

The USDA winter wheat forecast was based on harvested area projected at 24.499 million acres, down 965,000 acres, or 4%, from 25.464 million acres in 2021, and an average yield forecast of 47.9 bushels an acre, down from 50.2 bushels an acre in 2021.

But that was the MAY forecast while the June forecast up top and actual harvest data were much more positive. Looks to me like folks were saying they would plant less in May, but really did plant more.

The USDA winter wheat forecast was based on harvested area projected at 24.499 million acres, down 965,000 acres, or 4%, from 25.464 million acres in 2021, and an average yield forecast of 47.9 bushels an acre, down from 50.2 bushels an acre in 2021.

Projected US winter wheat abandonment in 2022 of 28%, if realized, would be the highest since 2002, the USDA said, and factors in dry conditions in Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.

The USDA forecast hard red winter wheat production in 2022 at 590.037 million bushels, down 21% from 749.489 million bushels in 2021.

Soft red winter wheat production was forecast at 353.303 million bushels, down 2% from 360.689 million bushels in 2021. The USDA forecast for soft red winter wheat was 3.797 million bushels higher than the projection issued by a panel of soft wheat millers addressing the spring conference of the North American Millers’ Association on April 12.

Hard white winter wheat production was forecast at 15.690 million bushels, down 23% from 20.283 million bushels in 2021, and soft white winter production was forecast at 214.317 million bushels, up 46% from 146.904 million bushels in 2021.

Winter wheat on May 9 in the 18 major production states was rated 29% in good to excellent condition by the USDA, 20 percentage points lower than the same week in 2021. Across the United States, 33% of the winter wheat crop was headed by May 9, seven percentage points below the 2017-21 average pace of 40%. Good-to-excellent conditions on May 9 were 30% in Kansas, 20% in Oklahoma and 7% in Texas.

“Early spring drought conditions have caused condition ratings to decline compared with last year in these states,” the USDA said.

Farmer surveys for the USDA forecasts were conducted between April 29 and May 9 to gather information on expected yield as of May 1. The survey sampled about 9,300 producers in all major production areas primarily by phone, with some mail and online components.

“These producers were selected from an earlier acreage survey and were asked about the probable winter wheat acres for harvest and yield on their operation,” […]

This site shows Kansas, while a big wheat State, is just 16% of total US Wheat:


Then the economic


U.S. Wheat Production Adjusted Higher

U.S. wheat production is forecast at 1.737 billion bushels, up 8 million bushels from the May forecast and 6 percent higher than the previous year (figure 1). USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) provided an updated forecast of 2022/23 U.S. winter wheat production in the June 10 Crop Production report. Winter wheat production overall is projected up 8 million bushels to 1.182 billion.
With harvested area unchanged, the average winter wheat yield is estimated at 48.2 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels from the May forecast. Higher forecast yields for Soft Red Winter and White Winter wheat more than offset a reduction for Hard Red Winter. Durum and Other Spring Wheat production collectively are estimated at 555 million bushels, up 51 percent from the previous year. Despite this month’s increase, U.S. wheat production is forecast to be the second lowest in 20 years.

I don’t see how that works. 6% higher than last year. Yet second lowest in 20 years? Um… something is missing.

So, OK, my take on it all is that we’ve mostly got dueling predictions and projections in what’s mostly a normal wheat year. A bit of drought in Kansas / Texas and some extra cool in the Pacific Northwest into the Northern States. Not much to worry about, really. But worth watching as the season progresses to see which guesses were right and wrong.

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Posted in Economics - Trading - and Money, Emergency Preparation and Risks, News Related | 14 Comments

W.O.O.D. – 23 June 2022


This is another of the W.O.O.D. series of semi-regular
Weekly Occasional Open Discussions.
(i.e. if I forget and skip one, no big)

Immediate prior one here:

and remains open for threads running there (at least until the ‘several month’ auto-close of comments on stale threads).

Canonical list of old ones here:

“Me” News

Still house hunting. Prices are coming down a little but the market is still rather bubblicious…


This will be DIY for a while still. I did do a Binge Watch catch up session and there’s a bunch of good ones, so well worth going there:



Looks like the Supremes just recognized Shall Issue or perhaps Constitutional Carry.


Supreme Court rules NY concealed carry gun law is unconstitutional

The U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday ruled in favor of the New York State Rifle & Pistol Association when it decided that New York state violates the Second Amendment by requiring gunowners applying for concealed-carry licenses to prove they have a worthy need to carry guns in public. It’s the first major decision on gun rights in more than a decade.

The 6-3 ruling was led by Justice Clarence Thomas, who said, “New York’s proper-cause requirement violates the Fourteenth Amendment in that it prevents law-abiding citizens with ordinary self-defense needs from exercising their right to keep and bear arms.”

“We know of no other constitutional right that an individual may exercise only after demonstrating to government officers some special need,” Thomas wrote. “That is not how the First Amendment works when it comes to unpopular speech or the free exercise of religion. It is not how the Sixth Amendment works when it comes to a defendant’s right to confront the witnesses against him. And it is not how the Second Amendment works when it comes to public carry for self defense.”

Justices Breyer, Sotomayor, and Kagan dissented.

The gun-rights group – a New York affiliate of the National Rifle Association – had sued the state of New York over the state’s “proper cause” requirement for granting concealed carry gun licenses. The requirement forced applicants to prove that they had a “proper cause” despite failing to define what “proper cause” means under state law.

Several other states require gun owners to prove their need for obtaining a concealed carry permit, including California, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Hawaii, and Maryland.

Thomas maintained that the “proper cause” requirement prevented eligible, law-abiding citizens from exercising their constitutional right to keep and bear arms in public for self-defense. He noted that the right to do so is protected by both the Second and Fourteenth Amendments.

The lawsuit originally stemmed from state resident Robert Nash, whose concealed carry license was granted only for hunting. After his neighborhood was plagued by robberies, Nash petitioned for the license to allow him to carry a gun in public for self-defense. He was denied for not demonstrating his special need for self-defense. He ultimately filed a lawsuit in 2018 to overturn the state’s requirement, and was joined by another resident and the gun group.

I don’t see where it bans States or Cities from requiring a permit, but it does look like it make them “shall issue” instead of “for approved cause”… maybe.

I think it will require some time to see how this works out in practice.

For more recent events, see:

Bongino Report:


Or Whatfinger:


I’ve also gotten addicted to the Top Ten Memes of the week from WatchMAGA here:


They have interesting “bite” to them, along with a tendency to highlight the news of the week in memes, so good as a social attitude pointer too. Plus they are “way fun” ;-)

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