Life is full of adventures, some more planned than others…
So I landed in Nassau, Bahamas, and went through “immigration”. Next came a 14 hour layover until my 7ish AM flight on to where the boat is located… “Immigration” asked me where I was staying, and I said I was waiting for my morning flight. They “suggested” I visit the information desk and ask about somewhere to be for the night as they thought the airport would likely be closed at some point (but didn’t say just when…)
So “information” suggested a $25 taxi ride to a Casino… The B$ is pegged to the $US and they are used more or less interchangeably. OK… At the Baha Mar Casino, I spent some time just walking around. I was clearly way out of place. Old White Guy in a safari hat, rubber sandals aka Boat Shoes, and carrying a backpack and rain jacket (because sometimes it rains on a boat…). Most folks from the Fru Fru Moneyed Class. Women in sprayed on knits over tits. Men in Polo Shirts that never ever saw a horse, but dripping money and attitude. So, OK, it’s a “destination” I guess.
Dinner was $195 after tip and all at a Chinese restaurant where everything was “price per” and low end was $24… so appetizer, noodle dish, main dish, wine, water (yes, a bottle of water…) etc.
At the “Sports Bar” it was $18.xx for a whiskey rocks, or an Irish Coffee, or maybe everything….
At about $300 I decided it was costing me too much per hour to “wait”, and took a taxi back to the airport. At about midnight, it was CLOSED. Doors not opening. So the Taxi Lady, Madeline?, took me to a random bar somewhere. Unwnd? Something like that. They had incredibly LOUD music going on, so I sat out on the patio for free (instead of having Yet Another Security Wand waved over me to be allowed in to the Cool Place for a deaf drink…
At about 2:30 AM, they started closing down. The manager came out an talked to me. (The Door Guard had said I could maybe buy a beer later, and now that it was later I was informed the bar was closed…) but the manager was a nice guy to talk to. He promoted the Bahamas in general and was open to my just sitting waiting for morning. After about 10 minutes of talking, and my asking once again about buying a beer, he got me one for free. Like I said, nice guy….
So as everyone was leaving and I was about to be sitting in the middle of God Only Knows Where, I called the Taxi Lady again… In about 10 minutes I was picked up and taken back to the airport. At about 3 AM, I was sitting on a bench outside a dead empty airport terminal. We’re talking NO cars moving. NO people. No security guy asking me why I was sitting there. Dead Quiet. And nice…
At about 3:20 AM a couple of very small mosquitoes showed up. I HATE mosquitoes. I probably got bit… or I’m having phantom itches on my hand… but I began to wonder: CAN I MAKE IT another 2 hours sitting here with mosquitoes? Was this a mistake. How would my life end? Would anyone notice a dead hulk drained of blood?
The the airport doors cycled open at 3:30 AM. Clearly some kind of timer as no person was seen anywhere….
I quickly entered.
It was AC Cold, not snuggly warm and humid like outside. But no mosquito.
I’ve been sitting about 1 hour now. In about another 1/2 hour the counter may open and I can check in. One other person arrived about 1/2 hour ago. Some kind of security or set-up person walked by about 45 minutes ago. Mostly it is just dead empty.
But it isn’t costing me $40 / hour for drinks or snacks ;-)
In about 3 or 4 hours I ought to be at The Boat. Then I’ll get to sleep.
For some strange reason, much of my life seems to be defined by sleep deprivation intervals. Oh Well…
At least the way over priced Chinese Dinner was good…
More when I can… and when I have slept a bit…
Just do NOT expect the main Bahamas airport to be open all night…
Doing nicely. I’ve planted out some Russian Kale, more collards, and some more purple sweet potato slips. Mostly just getting the small bits in starter pots into the dirt before I’m gone for a week.
The Bunny
I’ve got a Garden Bunny! A local wild bunny has decided my back yard garden is a nice place to settle in. Looks like about a 2 pound small bunny, in drab brown. Likes to take some morning sun at the back fence line. So far, seems to not be eating anything in the garden, preferring the local plants that it knows. Bunny digestion is very sensitive to changes of diet as that can disrupt the hind-gut fermentation process of this small herbivore. So it is reasonable that it would be tentative about trying these new, to it alien, plants. Eventually I expect it to nibble a bit, and then one day find the collards mowed down ;-)
IF it ever becomes enough of a problem, I can put up the same dog run fencing I used in California around the garden bits. For now, I’m enjoying the show, and that the bunny thinks we’re good folks.
It has a shed to hide under, lots of food to eat, and I’ve put a water dish in the ground that gets auto-magically filled when I water the garden, or if it rains.
To me, it looks like a smallish European Rabbit. However, searching on Florida Rabbits, it also looks a lot like a Marsh Rabbit. We are about 100 yards from a minor “marsh” that is the edge of the lake and a water catchment point for this block of houses.
Marsh Rabbit- The Marsh Rabbit, Sylvilagus palustris, is found in freshwater and brackish marshes through out the state of Florida. The marsh rabbit moves about much more during daylight than the cottontail. It is reddish brown with a gray underside and tail, and is 16-18″ long. The marsh rabbit is slightly smaller, darker brown, and has coarser hair than the cottontail. It has a small inconspicuous tail that is dingy white on the underside and will often walk rather than hopping as most rabbits do. The marsh rabbit is distinguished from its cottontail cousin in another important way – it is a strong swimmer and is usually found close to water. In Florida, this habitat includes everything from fresh and brackish marshes to wet prairies and flooded agricultural fields. The diet of the Florida marsh rabbit consists of emergent aquatic plants and wetland plants including grasses, sedge, maidencane, broad-leafed herbs, and weeds. Marsh rabbits can breed year round but most often from December to June. Litters contain 1-6 young. The nests are lined with grass and breast fur and located on the ground in thickets, stumps or logs. By four weeks of age, the young rabbits are weaned and are foraging for themselves. Marsh rabbits are most active at night and at dawn and dusk.
Happy to share the space with a local. The bunny now accepts me in the yard, as long as I don’t approach it closer than about 40 feet. I expect that distance to shorten over time as it realizes I’m only interested in the plants and do not chase it.
Our back yard is fully fenced, but with a “bunny sized” gap at the gate corners; so the bunny has a nice “Dog Proof” private space ;-)
We’ll see how this develops over time. Given the preference for “weeds”, this could work out very well ;-)
Tiller
I’ve bought a Ryobi electric tiller. It works relatively well. Tills up about an 11 inch by 16 inch chunk of sand in no time at all. I’ve used it to incorporate various plant matter into a strip along the fence. MUCH faster and easier than the shovel!
This will do very nicely for preparing a long bed along the fence line. I’ve got about 300 linear feet of it, I’d guess. I plan to plant it mostly to a combination of Runner Beans, Lima Beans (tall climbing type), Chayote vines, sweet potatoes, and whatever other vine I think would work well on a fence and be edible. This could take a while ;-)
I’m planting the Food Forest about 10 feet away from the fence. Eventually that gap may fill with garden too, but for now it is just lawn.
The tiller cost me about $80 at a factory blemished outlet. Only blemish I could find was the box was a bit chewed up / dented. The machine itself looked fine. Works fine too.
Next I need to get a lawn mower… Unlike California where folks use beard trimmers on their postage stamp sized scraps of “lawn”, here it comes by the acre and folks buy $4000 to $12000 giant racing mowers with several feet wide cutting decks… I’m thinking maybe a compromise of a “Garden Tractor” with a 3 foot or so cutter… Might be fun to have a dinky skip loader type bucket on it too ;-)
Maybe next year…
To The Bahamas
As California and Texas weather are making a run to California a pain, I’m headed to the Bahamas for a week or so. Boat Time calling ;-)
I have no idea IF I’ll have any internet connection, so y’all may need to “talk amongst yourselves” for a while.
I’ll be helping to return the boat from the Bahamas, and we certainly will not have internet while crossing the Gulf Stream.
FORD In My Future Yard
The FORD Expedition is back from the mechanic. The “shudder” at “40 something” miles per hour is called “Torque Converter Shudder” and adding $22 of “LubeGard Shudder Fix” to the transmission oil has fixed it.
So as of now I have a fully working tow vehicle AND a cargo trailer. Figure in about April 2nd week (assuming the California Weather clears) I’ll be moving the last of my stuff out of California.
So far, I’m really liking this FORD. Repairs are MUCH cheaper than the Mercedes.
And yes. After a 1 week marathon drive to California & back to get one load of stuff needed for tax filing, and after the next week+ of Bahamas and boating home: I expect to then get in the FORD and tow a trailer to California and back a couple of times.
This is retirement?
Ukraine Is Shrinking more
Just a small note that Russia continues to just “Grind Down” the Ukrainian army. It looks like the Ukrainians are doing fixed site defense without a lot of skill at it; while the Russians are doing “incremental destruction”. The Russian strategy is working rather well. Send in a drone, identify assets (radars, launchers, vehicles, troops), send in other drones to destroy; when any remaining counter fire is sent at the attack drones, smash the launchers with rockets and artillery. Destroy troops with lots of artillery. After that, walk in and mop up with minimal losses of ground troops. Rinse and repeat.
Rumors of a “Ukrainian Offensive” are a laugh. Very little artillery shells or cannon. No assault vehicles to speak of. Air Power grounded. So what will they do? Send a Human Wave of 15 year old kids and retired old men at Russian hardened emplacements?
Ukraine has lost this war and is a Dead Man Walking. Just Mr. Z won’t admit it yet as his handlers want the war to last as long as possible / profitable. “Fighting to the last Ukrainian”…
Russia will wrap this up shortly. I’d guess about June, August at the latest. Winter freeze was only about 2 weeks and not enough to run tanks over the fields. Spring has brought a sea of deep mud and immobility. Drying will start soon, and when the ground solidifies, things will move fast. Tanks & F16s in 2024 are a fantasy. Ukraine will be gone by then (or at least their army and likely the government will be gone).
Politics Drags On
Biden has bailed out his Billionaire Buddies in Silicon Valley Bank. Looks like another DNC Money Laundry has hit on hard times… This bank ought to have gone belly up and BURNED the ESG Bigots and WEFies who were highly involved with it. IF they never suffer failure, this will not stop. The pain of failure is a necessary antiseptic for this lunacy.
Banks Bleeding
THE basic problem for the banks is that they hold a lot of assets that have a long time period and a fixed rate. SVB in particular had a lot of 10 year Treasury Bonds. A bit dumb for a bank with short term deposits (though makes sense for insurance companies with long term obligations).
When The Fed is raising interest rates, long term debt like 10 to 30 year bonds drop a lot in price / value. Why buy a 20 year bond with a 2% rate if the new 20 year bond has a 6% rate? So the old one sells at a discount.
Well, as a bank, when your collateral is “discounted” you have less assets and need to find more somewhere. This was the root problem for SVB and Credit Suisse. SVB said they needed more, and a run started among their Venture Capitalist client base. C.S. asked their biggest buddy, Saudi, to buy in with more and they said NO, as any more put them over 10% regulatory limits.
This will be a problem for some other banks too, but not most of them; and certainly not the major retail banks. In any case, the national Central Banks will keep on bailing them out if they need it.
THE major consequence I see is that The Fed has now been put on notice that they need to stop the almost monthly rate hikes. This will stop the slide in bond values and stop the increase in bleeding banks. It is likely time to consider buying bonds again. TLT bond fund has been dropping steadily during the hikes, but just took an up-tick.
So watch that space.
Wild Weather
San Bernardino Mountains are recording their highest snow pack EVER and more is on the way. Other parts of the Sierra Nevada are matching past records of 40-ish years or more.
Canadian Cold is reaching all the way to Texas and maybe the Gulf Coast with storms sprouting along the way. Lots of wind, too.
North East is getting walloped with snow and storms.
Not going to try crossing the country in record times towing a trailer in that. Thus the break to the Bahamas ;-)
But it is well worth noting that this is NOT “Global Warming”. Not only have such events happened before ( I’ve lived through them…); but these are cyclical COLD events.
The whole “Global Warming” narrative is just another WEF Scam. Period.
They have interesting “bite” to them, along with a tendency to highlight the news of the week in memes, so good as a social attitude pointer too. Plus they are “way fun” ;-)
So now we’ve had 3 banks fail in the USA. A couple of them were very big. So why did they fail?
Overview
The short answer is “A few folks panicked and made a bank run on them.”
There wasn’t anything particularly bad, or poorly operated, about those particular banks. Two of them were involved with “crypto”, but not for the majority of their portfolio. Just enough to have “their community” panic about it when poked. The other one, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), was concentrated in the Venture Capital arena. Several Venture Capital companies had their money in it, and they had their portfolio of companies put the company money in it. This, BTW, had it reporting exceptional above average earnings (which was, I’m sure, part of “the point” behind concentrating the VC wealth in the VC “preferred” bank…).
Now all that was well and good, until The Fed decided to raise interest rates from “nearly nothing” to “quite a lot” in way too fast a way… In Japan & Europe rates WERE zero (or even negative). In the USA we were at some fraction of a percent, somewhere near 1/2 percent. In just a few months, The Fed raised rates by about 5% (or 500 “basis points”). That’s about a 10 x of the original 0.5% rate. Going from 1/2% to 1% doubles your interest payments. At 2% it has doubled again to 4 x the original cost. At 4% you get another double (so now 8 x whatever interest costs you had before). The next 1% (to 5%) is a 25% increase in the interest payment ( 1% is 1/4 of 4% ).
So very very fast, The Fed dramatically raised the amount of cash folks had to pay as interest on any loans. This is intended to quash inflation by “cooling” the economy. Basically you try to crush new sales on credit and new investment in inventory or construction by raising the interest costs. (This, BTW, doesn’t stop inflation. Inflation is a consequence of too much money chasing the same goods. Causing an economic contraction to make less goods doesn’t fix that… but it does squash businesses and assets.)
A lot of old loans are now “variable interest rate” loans. So that portfolio of old loans starts to jack up rates too. This sucks a lot of money out of people’s pockets and that, too, reduces demand for products (so is expected to reduce demand and ease inflation rates…). This ignores that the factories are now in China and reducing our demand doesn’t do anything to US makers… What it really does is prompt folks to float more on their credit cards for things like food and fuel, increasing the money supply. (There’s some quibble about credit card balances and ought they be counted in M1, M2, whatever… but what IS clear is that when you use your card, you are essentially creating some money to buy something that did not exist before. Your bank will front it too you, and then go make sure that “asset” (your loan of that money) is capitalized in some market or other). So how that increase in “money in motion” is supposed to reduce inflation is a mystery to me… /sarc;
OK, that’s the background.
The Technical Hook
Banks have a LOT of assets that have value due to interest payments. Bonds. Car loans. House loans (mortgages). Business Loans. When you go to sell a debt instrument (be it a simple mortgage or a package of them) the value calculation looks at the net present value of that expected future income stream. An expected interest rate is applied (called a “discount rate”) to figure out that present value.
So imagine I promise to pay you 10% on $1000 if you loan it to me for a year. On the face of it, that’s worth $1100 at the end of the year. But what if other investments are only yielding 5%? Those others are worth only $1050. But then we have the “time value of money”. Money I can spend today has a lot less risk than a promise of money in a year… So we “discount” that money by some interest rate. Figure there’s a 5% inflation + risk of loss. That makes that 5% loan “net present value” essentially zero. I’ll give you my money for a year, and when (if?) you pay me back, the payment won’t buy any more than the $1000 today.
OK so far. But now make the interest rate The Fed is paying 1/2%. That makes a 5% note look really good, and a 10% note look great! Folks end up paying a couple of percent over that Prime Rate, so most likely you will be making loans at about 3% to 5%. But, OK, discounted by 1/2% your 5% loan is making you 4.5% “net present value” of that future return (yes, I’m cutting corners on the actual way you figure this. It is to get the idea across, not make you an economist or accountant…)
So you make a LOT of 5% loans and the world is FINE. You are posting “nice” earnings of 4.5% year over year.
But then The Fed raises the prime interest rate. In fact, in just a few short months it jacks it up to 5%! OMG! Now you have this BIG portfolio of 5% loans that are NOT going to make you any money (when the net present value is discounted by 5%). IF you want to sell them, you will need to have MORE than 5% return to induce anyone to buy them. That means selling a $1000 note for, say, $995. They get the $5 “bonus” when the note is paid off plus the $5 interest. Making $10 on $995 is “worth it” to them even with a 5% discount rate.
OK, got that?
When interest rates go up: Interest bearing instruments like mortgages and loans and bonds GO DOWN in market value.
Now this isn’t much of a problem if you can just hold that $1000 note to maturity and get paid the full $1000 principle. But it IS a problem if you must sell before maturity and at a discount.
The Events
So The Fed also tells banks how much liquid assets they must carry to cover their cash needs. In the prior 2008 Banking Crisis a key bit was a change to the mandated accounting rule to say assets must be “Marked to Market”. I don’t know if they went back to the older way of face value, or not; but the effect of dropping asset value is the same.
The Fed says “you need more capital that is liquid (cash) or can be sold rapidly”. You need to raise more, or you get a Federal Proctology exam and potential closure.
So in their Investor Call, SVB said they intended to raise an added $2.5 Billion or so of “capital” (this on about a $200 Billion capitalization, so not that extreme). They also refused to say they might not come back to raise more (what bank would?). This spooked the VC Community and all those Venture Capitalists pulled their money AND called their portfolio of companies and told THEM to pull there money too. An over night $42 BILLION bank run happened.
SVB had to liquidate assets to raise the cash AND do it in the highly liquid “right now” markets that demand a deeper discount to hand over cash instantly. In the end, SVB took about a $1.8 Billion haircut on raising that $42 Billion of cash. This put them in even worse posture on “capitalization” and resulted in a Fed takeover.
Now, had those VCs (and their portfolio companies) NOT concentrated their deposits in that one bank, this run would not have happened. Had they not panicked over a relatively normal capital raise, this run would not have happened. AND: Had The Fed raised rates more slowly and judiciously, everyone would have had time to adjust and the capital shortfall most likely would not have happened.
Oh, and dumping completely the “Mark To Market” rule for things like bonds and mortgages can help prevent this too, as you don’t have to say your $42 Billion of bonds is only worth $40 Billion today because The Fed ran rates up too fast to sell them and Mark To Market won’t let you count them at face value as you hold them to maturity and actually GET face value for them….
For the 2 “Crypto Banks”, it was a similar thing in that the too rapid Fed rate hike caused a nominal capital shortage, but in this case it was the association with “Crypto” (tainted by the FTX debacle) that caused the spook / panic and bank runs.
Implications For Retail Banking
There’s a lot of folks running around, hair on fire, shouting that the general banking system is going to melt down in 60 days or less and to get your money out now. NOTHING could be worse than doing that.
Retail banking (folks like Chase, Wells Fargo, etc.) are posting nice earnings and not having bank runs.
Now, realize that a General Panic can cause a bank run on ANY bank; and NO bank can liquidate their portfolio of 30 year mortgages, 5 year car loans, and 20 year bonds at full real value in just a few days.
Yes, the US Financial System is not in great shape, and The Fed is doing stupid things. But there isn’t a lot better out there right now. China pegs to the $US, so their currency inflates at our rate too. Europe is in worse shape. Japan is in worse shape in terms of debt and economic performance. Sometimes you just lose a few percent to inflation.
Frankly, I’d have my money in a Swiss Bank except that they folded on Bank Secrecy to the US and now there are painful reporting requirements for overseas banking. Then they have decided to not be Neutral during a time of European War…
Do I think there will be more bank failures?
Yes. Especially if Mark To Market is still being used. The rapid jump of interest rates by 500 basis points (1/100 of a % per point) or 5% over a very short time was just dumb and will hurt a lot of banks financial numbers. Especially those who are in odd niche markets like Venture Capital Funding and Crypto Banking. But I expect your major Retail & Commercial banks (along with your local Credit Unions) to be Just Fine.
Unless, of course, everyone panics and demands all their money, in cash, right now!…
IF you are worried, AND have over $1/4 Million of actual cash in the bank, just split it up into $250,000 chunks and put one in each bank account. That’s the Federal Insured Amount. Very few folks have that much cash laying around….
Note that The Fed has already stepped in to assure customers of SVB get all their money back. No, I don’t know what will happen to companies that had way over the $1/4 Billion insured amount, but we will know very soon. Stockholders and Bond holders will likely get wiped out, so I’d not be holding a lot of Bank stocks or bonds…
It has slowly been dawning on me that “We”, the self congratulating “Democratic” West, are the source of the Evil we are seeing in the world today.
For far too long, I just assumed that most folks were moral and honest, for the simple reason that most folks were. But not anymore. Aside from just the self selection of Sociopaths & Psychopaths into positions of power in an excess percentage; there are now organizations that they have grown who’s purpose is to subvert the historic morality of the people, and their governments. See the WEF, Soros and his NGOs & GEBs (Greedy Evil Bastards) Globally.
It seems to me that a lot of this has a root back in the time of the assassination of JFK. There’s a lot of pretty good evidence that this was done to “Save The World” via the C.I.A. working with the Mafia (with whom they had worked closely since Lucky Luciano and the W.W.II protection of the US Ports and provision of maps & guides to help the Allied Powers in their invasion and liberation of Sicily…) See, the Bay Of Pigs fiasco along with the Cuban Missile Crisis had brought us to within minutes of nuclear destruction of the Western World. Something had to be done! So, it looks to me a lot like what they did was “get rid of the proximate problem” and then appoint themselves “Guardians Of The World”.
After all, they were assigned the job of overturning hostile and risky governments, so why not “fix” this one while they were at it?
That all went “sort of OK”, up until the Soviet Union disbanded. Yeah, they had a few F-ups; like that whole “supporting Evil Dictators like the Shaw leading to Iranian fanatics in charge…” But commerce went on, and the world was mostly shaped in the way best suited to United States Uni-polar Dominance, with a little bit of UK & EU doing well on the side.
But, over time, various other countries didn’t particularly like being bossed around by the USA. At the same time, feeling their power, the various apparatchiks in the Agencies, got fairly good at flipping governments they didn’t like. Again, there were some failures here, too. But mostly successes.
Then the various Color Revolutions started having a harder time of it. Where it went most wrong, I think, was in the flipping of Ukraine from an elected Russia friendly leader to a USA installed puppet; who then set about attacking his own citizens who were of Russian ethnicity and culture. This was the fuse being lit for the conflict today.
Then doubling down on that with the fraud of the Minsk Agreements that are now admitted to have been for the express purpose of hoodwinking Putin & Russia and allowing time to prepare to induct Ukraine into NATO and use Ukraine to start a war with Russia (for the purpose of “Color Revolution” and “Regime Change” in Russia including dismemberment, per the admissions of highly placed western “leaders” in the know.)
But first, a brief walk down Memory Lane as we look at the list of Color Revolutions. At the time of most of these, I naively thought them just a native event of the people. In retrospect, now, they look a lot more like a Put Up Job by agitators recruited by, most likely, the C.I.A. and their Five Eyes Alliance friends. UK, USA, Canada, Australia & New Zealand. (I’m still a little unsure who is at the helm, the US via the C.I.A.; or if the UK agencies are the stronger influencers, what with having had more centuries of intrigue under their belt… But I think it is most likely the USA.)
This one, I think, was not driven by the USA. We liked Marcos and had him well bought. But it set the pattern and was likely seen as a useful model to expand.
1988 (to 98) Coconut.
Bougainville Island leaves Papua New Guinea.
This one looks like a retro-naming event to me. It was a 10 year push for independence. I doubt anyone in The West really cared about either the Island or Papua. Maybe Australia did…
Though it took a while. Pretty sure the USA / CIA were helping this one along.
2000 Bulldozer Revolution. Yugoslavia.
Likely another example of successful “Help” from the USA / CIA. The wiki notes:
The demonstrations were supported by the youth movement Otpor!, some of whose members were involved in the later revolutions in other countries.
So here we start to see the “rinse and repeat” kicking in. Never mind the wars, death and dying in The Former Yugoslavia that would come later along with Clinton bombing in 1999 as NATO got to go on the offensive against a non-NATO member and without being attacked.
I think it was at this moment that the die was cast for making this a formal tool and process “going forward”.
Then they decided to move it closer to Russia (as the USSR had collapsed in 1991, Russia was the surviving major player). This, IMHO, was the start of the attack on Russia to try to keep it suppressed.
These replaced a former Soviet leader with one more “western friendly”. Oddly, the replacement had been Governor of Odessa for a while… Eventually the oppression of Ethnic Russians in Georgia prompted Russia to enter Georgia and protect them. Shades of things to come in Ukraine…
2004-5 Orange. Ukraine. Here’s the root of the problems today. The West didn’t like that the Ukrainians elected a Russia Friendly leader in Viktor Yanukovych and so installed Viktor Yushchenko. This set the stage for the various abuses of Ethnic Russians to follow and leads directly to what is happening today. I suspect it also lead to various Agencies being more involved in “controlling election results” better… The wiki list describes it as:
The Orange Revolution in Ukraine followed the disputed second round of the 2004 Ukrainian presidential election, leading to the annulment of the result and the repeat of the round—Leader of the Opposition Viktor Yushchenko was declared President, defeating Viktor Yanukovych. PORA supported the Orange Revolution.
2005 Purple. Iraq.
Remember that the USA had a little war with Iraq in 2003 and on to 2011. This was all a Bush Affair and remember that Daddy Bush was a former head of the C.I.A.; so pretty much you have the C.I.A. running the USA at that point. Anyone really think the 2005 election wasn’t managed by them too? It is interesting to note that Bush even rubbed Putin’s nose in it:
The term received its widest usage during a visit by President Bush on 24 February 2005 to Bratislava, Slovak Republic, for a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Bush stated: “In recent times, we have witnessed landmark events in the history of liberty: A Rose Revolution in Georgia, an Orange Revolution in Ukraine, and now, a Purple Revolution in Iraq.”
Nothing like the C.I.A. head guy who’s now running the USA telling Putin that we’re on a roll with turning countries against him…
2005 Pink (“Tulip Revolution”). Kyrgyzstan.
Remember that Kyrgyzstan was important to surrounding Afghanistan and keeping our troops supplied. It also was a former part of the Russian Empire and has a significant Russian minority population.
The Tulip Revolution (sometimes called the “Pink Revolution”) in Kyrgyzstan was more violent than its predecessors and followed the disputed 2005 Kyrgyz parliamentary election. At the same time, it was more fragmented than previous “colour revolutions”. The protesters in different areas adopted the colours pink and yellow for their protests. This revolution was supported by the youth resistance movement KelKel.
Again a “youth organization” was a big player in the ruckus. (Shades of Antifa and BLM in the coup attempt against Trump… and our “color revolution” via the vote counters… maybe we ought to call it the Golden Hair Revolution ;-) By this time we’re starting to see a consistent pattern.
2005. Cedar. Lebanon.
This one is interesting as it hives off Lebanon from Syria (a friend of Russia…). Though it didn’t do much to help the Lebanese Christians survive.
The Cedar Revolution in Lebanon between February and April 2005 followed not a disputed election, but rather the assassination of opposition leader Rafic Hariri in 2005. Also, instead of the annulment of an election, the people demanded an end to the Syrian occupation of Lebanon. Nonetheless, some of its elements and some of the methods used in the protests have been similar enough that it is often considered and treated by the press and commentators as one of the series of “colour revolutions.”
One might also note that it continues the pattern of reducing Russian and Friends Of Russia influence and increasing USA involvement (or at least destabilizing anyone not under our control…)
2005 Blue. Kuwait.
This one is curious. Brings women the right to vote, but no government change. Is it a retro-naming? A “dirty the pattern” cover? Or a failure? Hard to say. I’d just class it as a likely mis-categorization.
“Blue Revolution” was a term used by some Kuwaitis to refer to demonstrations in Kuwait in support of women’s suffrage beginning in March 2005; it was named after the colour of the signs that the protesters used. In May of that year, the Kuwaiti government acceded to their demands, granting women the right to vote beginning in the 2006 parliamentary elections. Since there was no call for regime change, the so-called “blue revolution” cannot be categorized as a true colour revolution.
Here’s where, I think, folks in The East started to notice the pattern and took steps to thwart it. Including, BTW, tossing out Soros and his NGOs. (I’d often wondered if Soros was a C.I.A. asset or not. At this point since he is still allowed to play here, I’m pretty sure he’s either directly supported or at a minimum a “Fellow Traveler” that they like / help.)
2006 Belarus. Jeans.
There was both an attempted Color Revolution as well as an assassination attempt.
In Belarus, there have been a number of protests against President Alexander Lukashenko, with participation from student group Zubr. One round of protests culminated on 25 March 2005; it was a self-declared attempt to emulate the Kyrgyzstan revolution and involved over a thousand citizens. However, police severely suppressed it, arresting over 30 people and imprisoning opposition leader Mikhail Marinich.
A second, much larger round of protests began almost a year later, on 19 March 2006, soon after the presidential election. Official results had Lukashenko winning with 83% of the vote; protesters claimed the results were achieved through fraud and voter intimidation, a charge echoed by many foreign governments. Protesters camped out in October Square in Minsk over the next week, calling variously for the resignation of Lukashenko, the installation of rival candidate Alaksandar Milinkievič, and new, fair elections.
The opposition originally used as a symbol the white-red-white former flag of Belarus; the movement has had significant connections with that in neighbouring Ukraine. During the Orange Revolution, some white-red-white flags were seen being waved in Kyiv. During the 2006 protests, some called it the “Jeans Revolution” or “Denim Revolution,” blue jeans being considered a symbol for freedom. Some protesters cut up jeans into ribbons and hung them in public places. It is claimed that Zubr was responsible for coining the phrase.
Lukashenko has said in the past: “In our country, there will be no pink or orange, or even banana revolution.” More recently, he’s said, “They [the West] think that Belarus is ready for some ‘orange’ or, what is a rather frightening option, ‘blue’ or ‘cornflower blue’ revolution. Such ‘blue’ revolutions are the last thing we need”. On 19 April 2005, he further commented: “All these coloured revolutions are pure and simple banditry.”
Since then, further attempts at Color Revolutions have had a more checkered result. Having firmly aligned Belarus with Russia, one could say this was an Own Goal by the C.I.A. & Friends…
Honorable mention, here, goes to Syria where we’ve been trying to oust Assad for a good long while, but have only succeeded in stealing their limited oil reserves. For that one, Russia stepped in and confronted The West directly.
Honorable mention also likely ought to go to the event in Turkey where a failed “coup” took place.
2007 Saffron. Myanmar (Burma).
This one is another Socialist to Democracy transition attempt, IMHO. I don’t see any connection to Russia per se, but I can see it as generally being in the C.I.A. wheelhouse to destabilize them.
2007-2016 Yellow rally. Malaysia.
I’m not sure what to say about this one. It looks like they were using the DNC Democrat’s Voting Platform and some folks didn’t like it:
A series of demonstrations in Kuala Lumpur. The rally, organised by the Coalition for Clean and Fair Elections (Bersih), was supported by Pakatan Rakyat, the coalition of the three largest opposition parties in Malaysia, but was deemed illegal by the government. Bersih, chaired by former president of the Bar Council Ambiga Sreenevasan, were pushing the Election Commission of Malaysia (EC) to ensure free and fair elections in Malaysia. It demanded that the EC clean up the electoral roll, reform postal voting, use indelible ink, introduce a minimum 21-day campaign period, allow all parties free access to the media, and put an end to electoral fraud.
Probably a decent Dig Here! in there somewhere…
Meanwhile, back at the Former Soviet Union and getting closer to Russia for NATO:
2009 Grape. Moldova.
Guess they were running out of colors and decided to use fruit instead.
The opposition is reported to have hoped for and urged some kind of Orange revolution, similar to that in Ukraine, in the follow-up of the 2005 Moldovan parliamentary elections, while the Christian Democratic People’s Party adopted orange for its colour in a clear reference to the events of Ukraine.
A name hypothesized for such an event was the “Grape Revolution” because of the abundance of vineyards in the country; however, such a revolution failed to materialize after the governmental victory in the elections. Many reasons have been given for this, including a fractured opposition and the fact that the government had already co-opted many of the political positions that might have united the opposition (such as a perceived pro-European and anti-Russian stance). Also, the elections themselves were declared fairer in the OSCE election monitoring reports than had been the case in other countries where similar revolutions occurred, even though the CIS monitoring mission strongly condemned them.
There was civil unrest all over Moldova following the 2009 Parliamentary election, owing to the opposition’s assertion that the communists had fixed the election. Eventually, the Alliance for European Integration created a governing coalition that pushed the Communist party into opposition.
So a not-quite-a-revolution. But interesting in that Moldova is now being put back in play via a proposed “reunification” with Romania making it an instant NATO border with Ukraine (and soon to be Russia…?)
There’s a lot more after that. Some of them are, I think, back formations on the part of the list maker after the fact. Others start to be repeats in some countries. I’m going to mostly just list them and not comment unless they have a significant importance:
2009-10 Green Movement. Iran. (Good luck with dumping their leader…)
2010 Melon Movement. Kyrgyzstan again.
2010-11 Jasmine. Tunisia.
The start of the Arab Spring where a bunch of Muslim countries had “change”. This while the USA was still hot and bothered about 9/11 and was busy with Iraq et. al.
2011 Lotus. Egypt.
2011-14 Pearl. Bahrain. (Yet Another Arab Spring turnover).
2011 Yemeni Revolution. Yemen.
2011 Chinese Jasmine. China. (Failed)
2011-13 Snow. Russia. (Failed)
2016 “Colorful Revolution”. Macedonia. (Looks like back formation to me, just protests).
At this point, it looks like it has become a bit of a fad to name any big protest movement a “Color Revolution” and that tends to hide the ones that were put-ups.
This one is interesting in that it is protesting the re-election of Lukashenko.
After the 2020 Belarusian presidential election, where incumbent president Alexander Lukashenko was re-elected, protests started claiming fraud. The main opposition candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya declared herself the winner, saying that she won by a large margin. She then set up the “Coordination Council,” which was recognized as the legitimate interim government by the European Parliament. As of December 2020, some of the media states that the revolution failed and that Lukashenko managed to prevent a repeat of the Euromaidan.
So we have Yet Another attempt to flip Belarus via questionable voting practices. And folks wonder why he’s friends with Putin? Eh?
Then back to Russia’s underbelly FSU nations:
2022 Steppe Revolution. Kazakhstan. Mostly, IMHO, an internal squabble over bad economics.
Ponder it
Now what’s the odds that all those “revolutions” would only happen around the FSU / near Russia and in Arab / Muslim States when the USA was preoccupied with Muslim Terrorism? Sure, there’s the odd one or two where a Socialist Government gets a bit of destabilizing (like Bolivia). But not one looks like it is happening in a USA loved and supported nation. None in Mexico, Panama, Brazil, Chile, etc. Similarly in sub-Saharan Africa.
One could question the election we just had in Brazil, kicking out Bolsonaro. Mexico could stand a bit of watching as some Congress Critter has said maybe we ought to take military action to clean out the drug cartels. Causing Mexico to piss in our coffee and ask to join the BRICS+ group:
He cites Sputnik News but others have the story too:
Mexican president says BRICS key in bringing greater balance to global governance
Source: Xinhua| 2017-09-03 11:16:10|Editor: Mengjie
MEXICO CITY, Sept. 2 (Xinhua) — The BRICS countries as a group are playing “a key role” in bringing greater balance to global governance in an increasingly more plural and diverse world, said Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto.
Since BRICS members began to meet annually eight years ago, “we have seen important progress in the goals it set, particularly in the area of cooperation and coordination in multilateral forums on economic and political governance,” he told Xinhua in a recent interview.
The Mexican leader is going to China to attend a Dialogue of Emerging Economies on the sidelines of the upcoming ninth summit of the BRICS bloc of emerging nations that include Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
Chinese President Xi Jinping will be presiding over both the BRICS summit in the southeastern city of Xiamen from Sept. 3 to 5, and the Dialogue of Emerging Economies and Developing Countries to be held on the final day with the leaders from BRICS and five other emerging nations: Egypt, Tajikistan, Guinea, Thailand and Mexico.
So it looks to me like someone at the C.I.A. has really stepped in it this time.
You can only run around the world swinging a big dick and screwing people over so long. As soon as ANY reasonable alternative comes along, they will swap clubs so fast the chill wind will just shrink things right up…
IMHO, the BIG mistake was the attempt to steal too many Government Cash Assets. Even the House Of Saud didn’t like that, driving Saudi Arabia to join the BRICS+ (NEVER EVER break trust about money, and especially not with any Muslim… it will mark you as a dishonest bastard forever. Oh, wait… /snark;)
Reflecting a bit
It sure looks to me like the Five Eyes + EU consortium: “The West”, has been busy pushing everyone around for way too long, and really liked it when they could just topple governments and change the rules of the game at will.
This made them arrogant and rude to their “friends” and “enemies” alike. Stealing money here, oil there (Syria…), embargoing trade from anyone they didn’t like today. Then, who knows how many countries have been bullied in private. ~”Support us in our overthrow of THEM, or we do you next” or ~”Nice crop you have there IF you can sell it” or maybe ~”How about we send those Epstein photos to your opponent? Or wife?”.
So they finally went too far with someone who could tell them to Piss Off. Like Cancel Culture has lead to the Parallel Economy and Youtube Censorship has launched Bitchute, Rumble, and a half dozen others. Trying to kick Russia out of Global Money Settlements and steal their money in Western Banks has just resulted in an alternate settlements system, and alternate trading locations. Russia and China are now partners in setting up parallel economy systems for anyone the USA / EU do not like OR MAY NOT LIKE IN THE FUTURE… which is anyone at all who says “No” to them. On anything.
So our Warmonger In Chief, Lindsey Graham, who loves the idea of military intervention for just about anything has put Mexico into BRICS for us:
Graham says he will introduce bill to ‘set the stage’ for US to use military force in Mexico
BY BRAD DRESS – 03/07/23 10:36 AM ET
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) on Monday said he was prepared to introduce legislation to “set the stage” for U.S. military force in Mexico, saying it was time to “get tough” on the neighboring country after four Americans were kidnapped by armed men this week.
Graham told Fox News host Jesse Watters that he would follow the advice of former President Trump on Mexico policy.
“I would put Mexico on notice,” Graham said. “If you continue to give safe haven to drug dealers, then you are an enemy of the United States.”
Graham added he would “introduce legislation to make certain Mexican drug cartels foreign terrorist organizations under U.S. law and set the stage to use military force if necessary.”
“I would tell the Mexican government if you don’t clean up your act, we’re going to clean it up for you,” the senator said.
So… you think that goes down well in Mexico? Hmmm?
ALL of Latin America watched as the USA destroyed the Venezuelan Economy via various sanctions and trade barriers. Put up a Regime In Exile. Stole their oil processing facilities (but did it all legal like via the courts…) and generally likes “Regime Change” (such as in Panama and Grenada and others over the years).
Guess who all is going to be lining up to join BRICS+ and give a fat middle finger to the USA? Russia is a bigger supplier of materials and energy. China is a vastly larger market for their goods. BOTH of them don’t piss on other governments.
Oh, and for good measure: The also see that via blowing up Nordstream I & II, they have made the EU (and Europe writ large) an energy Satrap of the USA. Since the EU is now going into energy poverty (possibly to be followed by economic collapse), and since the UK has been maneuvered back into EU Handcuffs, though for now without membership, by the UK Elite: The EU is not going to be an interesting market nor supply much of interest either.
So what to do, what to do… I know, hitch your wagon to the new Economic Engine in town: BRICS+. You know, the one with the motto “We don’t screw you like they do!”.
Such stupidity by our “Leaders”… it is of epic proportions and all that it would have taken to avoid it is simply “Treat others with the respect due to a Sovereign Nation” and don’t screw them.
Oh Well. Whoever thought Globalist Evil Bastard Psychopaths could behave nicely and not try to do psychopathic things…
I think I need a long think about where to put my money. Just like all those blossoming BRICS+ countries. Out of the USA / EU Banking system is looking better… But just where?
Musings from the Chiefio 