The Northern Hemisphere – What warming?

Northern Hemisphere Spring temperature history

Northern Hemisphere Spring temperature history

The only warming I see is from thermometer change

This posting is presently a bit of a shell. The purpose is two fold. One is to see if can actually make graphics in Excel and get them into a posting.

The other to to show just how flat the Northern Hemisphere data are. This first graph is the spring months from the best quartile of the data. More will follow.

There is a step function at the end when thermometer counts change a lot (many thermometers are deleted) but otherwise, it’s pretty darned flat. Certainly not the pattern you would expect from “Global Warming”…

How About Fall?

Northern Hemisphere Fall Profile

Northern Hemisphere Fall Profile

Pretty darned flat too. Same “step function uplift” with the drop of thermometer count at the end.

Now it gets interesting. N.H. Summer

Northern Hemisphere Summer Temperature Trend

Northern Hemisphere Summer Temperature Trend

Same dead flat until a spike with the recent thermometer count drop. Definitely not moving in smooth proportion to CO2!

As we saw in https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/08/17/thermometer-years-by-latitude-warm-globe/ there was a dramatic drop off in long lived records in that decade. At first I suspected this was thermometer deletion, but now I’m more inclined to think that it is an artifact of thermometer change. There were a large number of new electronic thermometers installed during that time, and these would likely have gotten a new “modification flag” and thus be counted as a short lived thermometer and have left this cohort of long lived thermometers. If these where differentially in colder places, like Northern Europe, the result would be as seen here. (the United Kingdom had such a thermometer change about then). As a future effort, I’ll need to glue them back onto the long lived records and see what happens.

But, the chart from the earlier posting, a bit shortened in time:

Year, and 20 degree latitude bands, south to north. Thermometer years.
SP – South Pole
SC – Southern Cold
ST – Southern Temperate
SW – Southern Warm
EQ – Equator
NW – Northern Warm
NT – Northern Temperate
NC – Northern Cold
NP – North Pole

                   SP    SC    ST    SW    EQ    NW    NT    NC    NP
DecadeLat: 1849     0     0     1     0     2     6    93    82     1
DecadeLat: 1859     0     0     3     0     2    11   137    92     2
DecadeLat: 1869     0     0    15     0     3     7   173   103     1
DecadeLat: 1879     0     0    27     2    15    20   336   110     2
DecadeLat: 1889     0     0    44    10    18    48   624   184     3
DecadeLat: 1899     0     2    57    26    31    87  1175   309     3
DecadeLat: 1909     0     9   111    61    44   133  1510   382     5
DecadeLat: 1919     0    11   174   124    57   160  1789   479     8
DecadeLat: 1929     0    11   187   145    66   212  1961   545    16
DecadeLat: 1939     0    13   220   180    91   304  2156   713    26
DecadeLat: 1949     0    20   261   259   116   407  2412   887    37
DecadeLat: 1959     9    43   347   453   421  1010  3417  1249    80
DecadeLat: 1969    32    68   466   650   729  1310  4121  1511   105
DecadeLat: 1979    34    85   580   747   661  1269  4204  1511   103
DecadeLat: 1989    25    68   495   605   452   916  3805  1307    82
DecadeLat: 1999     9    32   212   250   224   429  2128   314    27
DecadeLat: 2009     7    20   102   132   159   316  1339   241    17

Now, on to winter

Northern Hemisphere Winter Temperature Trend

Northern Hemisphere Winter Temperature Trend

This is much more volatile, though both the start and end points are similar. Again there is the spike up in one decade. When we look closely at the UK, for example, we find the present records all have a non-zero modification flag (the last digit before the year) :

[chiefio@tubularbells analysis]$ grep 2008 v2.mean.england
6510300500012008 42 52 37 60 91 104 131 133 120 78 57 48
6510302600012008 52 58 49 69 112 115 140 143 118 83 68 49
6510309100012008 43 58 46 65 104 125 149 146 125 85 57 41
6510310000012008 63 71 61 76 120 120 142 144 127 95 78 59
6510316200032008 37 41 40 58 114 117 147 140 110 73 51 19
6510325700012008 61 47 60 74 118 135 162 161 134 94 65 32
6510330200012008 78 69 70 83 139 134 160 159 140 110 87 56
6510337700012008 66 54 60 79 131 145 168 171 139 102 71 36
6510386200012008 73 56 71 85 142 147 165 165 137 101 80 41
6510391700032008 55 58 58 80 129 134 154 153 129 91 67 45

A bit further back in time, these where zero modification flags, so the entire set of current thermometers in the UK would not make it into this long lived set (having new “records” from a new “modification flag”). This is the next thing I need to look at. What happens when the old and new thermometer records are spliced together for these long lived thermometers.

In 1991, there were two records for these thermometers, the “zero” mod flag one and the eventual survivor seen in this list. There were also an additonal 6 locations reporting (many with 2 thermometers) that have left the record entirely.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
This entry was posted in AGW Science and Background, Favorites and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink.

13 Responses to The Northern Hemisphere – What warming?

  1. Ian Beale says:

    E.M.

    FYI. The spring graph displays for me, the fall one doesn’t

  2. Bishop Hill says:

    The only way I’ve found to get Excel charts into graphical format is as follows:

    1. Copy the chart.
    2. Paste into OpenOffice Draw
    3. Export

    Sometimes converting to a contour before export improves the results, but it doesn’t seem to work for complex graphs.

  3. Ellie in Belfast says:

    You can also cut and paste them within Excel. Copy the graph then paste it into another sheet using the ‘Paste Special’ function. Choose .gif or .jpg format etc. These will probably be easier to ‘lift’ and more ‘true’.

  4. E.M.Smith says:

    Ellie: I’m in Office 2000 and I suspect that it does not support the paste as .gif type. I’ve had to paste as some “extended graphic” type, then cut and paste into MS Photo editor to be able to save as .gif of jpg. It’s a pain, but I seem to be able to make it work…

    I left a comment or 6 for you under the “how long is long” thread. There is a set of data there for the UK where it would be very interesting to get a graph of the “Annual Mean” temperatures… They look like a “dead flat trend with a cyclical ripple” to me.

  5. pyromancer76 says:

    E.M. Smith, I am grateful for your mind that enjoys inquiring into every nook and cranny of data gathering, storing, and using — and for those who are helping (and can help) you in your project. Who would have thunk that a “simple” change of thermometer might have brought on AGW. Ironically, the “anthropogenic”, then, certainly applies.

  6. E.M.Smith says:

    @pyromancer76

    Well, it’s sort of an Aspe thing… I have “self diagnosed” as a borderline high function Aspergers Syndrom person. Based in part on exactly that intense focus and compulsion to follow every loose end into it’s respective nook or cranny. FWIW, the tendency to “see the data” that comes with being an Aspe is what first caused me to call “BS” on global warming. What was being claimed did not match the “patterns I saw in the data”. Those patterns matched the movement of the thermometers, not the CO2 changes…

    It’s hard to explain sometimes what it is like. (FWIW, the folks who are called ‘normal’ by the world are called ‘neuro-typicals’ by Aspies… ) So, if you will pardon my use of the word, neurotypicals don’t see the patterns. Aspies do. And we can’t stop seeing them. No matter what. And that is why you have the typical scene in the movies of the “slow to catch on geek stating what IS; while the ‘savvy’ {cop, drug dealer, lawyer, manager, financial adviser, …} is trying to set up some trap with a little lie… and the dirty looks between them.

    The difference with me is that I’m very “high function”. I can “do the manager thing”, but it does pain me somewhat. It is so absolutely stark naked shouting at the world that I’m doing a “suck up flattery thing” that it makes me want to retch (just as it does when I see others doing it); but I’ve learned that it works and that the “target” often just doesn’t see it. It is rather like deciding you can walk naked through downtown London and nobody would see it. It takes a while to accept that this is true…

    Basically, I can function in a neurotypical world because I can accept that it is based on lies and that’s OK. But I can’t stop seeing the lies and just think it is real… FWIW, watching politicians is particularly painful. I just keep wondering how they can lie so much and seemingly believe it. The patterns are just all wrong… Pelosi I’ve come to understand. She is just dumb as a post and believes the spew she spouts due to having no ability to evaluate it. But folks like Little Chucky Shumer, Obama, and Barney Frank just make me want to vomit. They clearly are smart enough to know they are flat out lying, yet they do it and get away with it. The profound cynicism of this requires a level of deliberate disrespect for the average person as to defy belief. Then they get away with it.

    I’m left with the quandary: Are people that dumb, or are people that willing to run with the lie because they have no moral compass. That’s the point where I’m really distressed.

    I don’t want a world where my choices are: 1) Most people are dumber than sheep and so deserve to be abused (as per the cynical politicians behaviour success). or 2) Most people have the moral compass of a vulture. (and are going along with the lies for personal gain).

    There has to be a better world…

    And that, IMHO, is why the Aspies who are not high function, and in the limit case the Autistics, withdraw from the world. They can see how hopelessly broken it is, but can’t “press on” and wade through the sewer… How can you possibly function when all around you reality is one thing and what every one else does is something else…

    And, IMHO, AGW is a stellar example of that problem…

  7. Jeff Alberts says:

    Excellent work, as always, EM.

  8. Steven mosher says:

    R you able to run Gistemp now? on what platform?

    Also, a while back when we only had JohnVs opentemp I was
    able to show the difference that the change to MMTS ( even after the adjustment) was visible in the data. You will need access to Anthony’s dataset of station ratings to do this.

  9. E.M.Smith says:

    @Steven mosher

    I’ve been able to run GIStemp for a while. The only “issue” is that STEP4_5 has a “bigendian” file to input from Hadley if you want their SST product blended into the GIStemp land data. Need a “bigendian” machine or I need to upgrade my compiler one release. I’ve been doing interesting data analysis rather than go down that rathole. But if you have, for example, a Sun Sparc station, it ought to be “good to go”.

    I run it on an old PC (details in the GIStemp tab) that has about 132 MB of memory (upgraded last week ;-) and a 400 Mhz AMD chip. Doesn’t take much hardware…

    For any land analysis, I can pretty much run it straight through.

    Oh, and if you would like it installed on your own box, I’ll hand deliver a copy and help with the install. A PC with Linux (I’m on RedHat 7.2) or a Sun or similar Unix station would work best. Needs a FORTRAN compiler (both f77 and f90 or g95, though a tiny bit of work would make it “one compiler” compliant. I just didn’t want to change the code any more than needed. (To avoid claims my analysis was flawed due to code changes.) Linux comes with f77 and the g95 install was not hard. Newer Linux probably has the right compilers already…) I can install binary only on a RedHat linux on a PC without compilers.

    Or if you just want an output file, I can do that too. Just give me an ftp destination and what file you want.

  10. Steven mosher says:

    Thanks.

    Let’s see. I wonder if we could find an old sparc station at weird stuff in the south bay. Otherwise I’ll have to refurb an old laptop, get some stuff off it, switch to linux..

    WRT to studies to do. I think I would start with a North American test. I’ll ask Anthony for his latest and greatest data ( I suspect he’s working up something ) and then suggest some cuts through the data.

    Steve

  11. E.M.Smith says:

    From: http://sfbay.craigslist.org/pen/sys/1431276507.html

    Sun Ultra 5 Workstation – $20 (foster city)

    Date: 2009-10-21, 9:27AM PDT
    Reply to: sale-askzg-1431276507@craigslist.org

    Excellent condition

    Craig’s List is your friend, and a Sparcstation is not hard to find cheap…

  12. reader says:

    @E.M. Smith,

    don’t know how big the big-endian file is, but it simply could be converted before you feed it into your program. Thus it would be no big deal — well, if the Hadley file is just text. If they are using a different floating format also, things are a bit more complicated. If you like, just point me to the Hadley file and send me an archive containing your programs and I’ll write a G’too package for it.

    REPLY: [ It’s a FORTRAN ‘unformatted’ file that is actually quite formatted… Starts with a byte count, then the data, then ends with a byte count. And each datum may be of different length and there may be variable numbers of them. Yeah, that kind of rats nest… Read this:

    http://local.wasp.uwa.edu.au/~pbourke/dataformats/fortran/

    Then if you still want to try it, the file is:

    echo “You may use do_comb_step4.sh to update an existing SBBX.HadR2 file”
    echo “You may use do_comb_step5.sh to create the temperature anomaly tables”
    echo “that are based on land and ocean data”

    echo “While left unsaid by GISS, an SBBX.SSTHadR2 is available via: ”
    echo ” ftp://data.giss.nasa.gov/pub/gistemp
    echo “and the oiv2monthly files are available at: ”
    echo “ftp://ftp.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/cmb/sst/oimonth_v2”
    [chiefio@tubularbells STEP3]$

    SBBX stands for Sub-Box (I think) and you need some base level to start with. Then you use STEP4 to update it every so often with the monthly update: oimonth_v2 (which I think stands for Optimal Interpretation Monthly Version 2.

    -E.M.Smith ]

  13. opit says:

    Just passing through as I was checking some links on Climategate.
    If you haven’t done so, I suggest you check out the special section at Global Research.ca. I’d say your cynicism is shared : and you beat me out by weeks.

    REPLY: [ I presume you mean:

    http://www.globalresearch.ca/

    The space in the middle threw me for a second…

    FWIW, I’m generally extraordinarily biased against “conspiracy theories”. But of late, the pattern I’ve seen tends to say it is not so much a theory as a demonstrated fact. There is collusion going on. You see it in the near instant propagation of almost identical “sound bytes” and talking points. While I have yet to explore the realm of the “Globalization Conspiracy Theorists”, I’m now willing to entertain such notions as a ‘possible worth investigation’. It saddens me to say that, but frankly, we’ve seen the evidence to support an investigation at a minimum. Not all conspiracies are theoretical… -E.M.Smith ]

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