GHCN – New Zealand, Polynesian Polarphobia

Pacific Basin -  Polynesian Triangle

Pacific Basin - Polynesian Triangle

Orginal image.

If you would understand the temperature of the planet, you must understand the half that is the Pacific Ocean.

UPDATE: I’ve added a bit on the Hawaiian Island area at the bottom.

In:

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/10/29/ghcn-pacific-basin-lies-statistics-and-australia/

we saw that in 1992-93 there were 401 net thermometers deleted from the entire Pacific Region. The same number as removed in Australia. If Australia were removed from the statistics, the Average Pacific Temperature stabilized a great deal. Further, we found that Australian thermometers migrated north over time, toward the hot equator.

Here, we will look more closely at New Zealand and the rest of the Pacific Ocean. In particular, taking New Zealand out of the whole record leads to even greater temperature stability in the Islands. If the half of the planet that is the Pacific Basin is not warming, it can hardly be “Global” nor “Warming”. When we look more closely at New Zealand, we find more thermometer changes. “Global Warming” is an artifact of thermometer change (both modification history and location) over time.

New Zealand

What does New Zealand look like? The decade changes by latitude look like this:

Look at ./Lats/Therm.by.lat507.Dec.LAT (Y/N)? y
 
       Year SP -65   -60   -55   -50   -45   -40   -35   -30   -25   -NP
DecPct: 1869   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  21.4  57.1  21.4   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1879   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  19.2  61.5  19.2   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1889   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  23.8  52.4  23.8   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1899   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  21.7  56.5  21.7   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1909   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  15.6  68.8  15.6   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1919   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  16.7  66.7  16.7   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1929   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  20.0  60.0  20.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1939   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  19.2  61.5  19.2   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1949   0.0   0.0   0.0  16.7   9.3  46.3   9.3   0.0  18.5   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1959   0.0   0.0   0.0  14.1  10.8  40.4  21.6   0.0  13.1   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1969   0.0   0.0   0.0  13.6  13.3  34.6  24.8   0.0  13.6   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1979   0.0   0.0   0.0  11.9  11.9  34.9  29.3   0.0  11.9   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1989   0.0   0.0   0.0  14.0  11.3  35.6  25.7   0.0  13.5   0.0 100.0 
DecPct: 1999   0.0   0.0   0.0  11.3  12.3  33.0  34.9   0.0   8.5   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 2009   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.6  12.0  36.1  36.1   0.0  12.0   0.0 100.0
 
For COUNTRY CODE: 507
 

This is the usual South Pole on the left, North Pole on the right.

We can see the drop out of the more northern thermometers in WWII. Then the general spreading out of thermometers over time resumes. Then a startling thing happens. The northern 35 S band jumps up from 25.7 to 36.1 percent at the same time that the more southern 50 S band nearly evaporates, dropping from 11.3 percent to 3.6%. That far south near Antarctic Island just had to go! The warm tropical islands up near 25 S get restored from 8.5 to 12% and the 45 S to 35 S main band get a boost. We can easily see here the expectation of 20 years of “warming of the record” from about 1989 to 2009 as the thermometers run away from the pole. Bad case of “polarphobia” if you ask me!

Zooming in a bit on those years it is pretty clear that the “action” all happens in the 2002 to 2003 transition with the complete deletion of those thermometers (and the only reason we have even 3.6% in the decade is an artifact of averaging… another reason not to like the “average thermometers approach”…) We also see that the ‘swoon’ in the north was just a data dropout in a couple of years, not something systemic.

DecPct: 1989   0.0   0.0   0.0  14.0  11.3  35.6  25.7   0.0  13.5   0.0 100.0
 
LATpct: 1990   0.0   0.0   0.0  15.8  15.8  36.8  31.6   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
LATpct: 1991   0.0   0.0   0.0  12.5  12.5  31.2  31.2   0.0  12.5   0.0 100.0
LATpct: 1992   0.0   0.0   0.0  10.0  10.0  30.0  40.0   0.0  10.0   0.0 100.0
LATpct: 1993   0.0   0.0   0.0  10.0  10.0  30.0  40.0   0.0  10.0   0.0 100.0
LATpct: 1994   0.0   0.0   0.0  11.1  11.1  33.3  33.3   0.0  11.1   0.0 100.0
LATpct: 1995   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  16.7  33.3  50.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
LATpct: 1996   0.0   0.0   0.0  11.1  11.1  33.3  33.3   0.0  11.1   0.0 100.0
LATpct: 1997   0.0   0.0   0.0  11.1  11.1  33.3  33.3   0.0  11.1   0.0 100.0
LATpct: 1998   0.0   0.0   0.0  11.1  11.1  33.3  33.3   0.0  11.1   0.0 100.0
LATpct: 1999   0.0   0.0   0.0  11.1  11.1  33.3  33.3   0.0  11.1   0.0 100.0
 
DecPct: 1999   0.0   0.0   0.0  11.3  12.3  33.0  34.9   0.0   8.5   0.0 100.0
 
LATpct: 2000   0.0   0.0   0.0  11.1  11.1  33.3  33.3   0.0  11.1   0.0 100.0
LATpct: 2001   0.0   0.0   0.0  11.1  11.1  33.3  33.3   0.0  11.1   0.0 100.0
LATpct: 2002   0.0   0.0   0.0  11.1  11.1  33.3  33.3   0.0  11.1   0.0 100.0
LATpct: 2003   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  12.5  37.5  37.5   0.0  12.5   0.0 100.0
LATpct: 2004   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  12.5  37.5  37.5   0.0  12.5   0.0 100.0
LATpct: 2005   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  12.5  37.5  37.5   0.0  12.5   0.0 100.0
LATpct: 2006   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  12.5  37.5  37.5   0.0  12.5   0.0 100.0
LATpct: 2007   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  12.5  37.5  37.5   0.0  12.5   0.0 100.0
LATpct: 2008   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  12.5  37.5  37.5   0.0  12.5   0.0 100.0
LATpct: 2009   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  12.5  37.5  37.5   0.0  12.5   0.0 100.0
 
DecPct: 2009   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.6  12.0  36.1  36.1   0.0  12.0   0.0 100.0
 
For COUNTRY CODE: 507

Wonder what got nuked in 2002?

So who got shot that year? One Island:

[chiefio@tubularbells analysis]$ diff Temps/507.stns2002 Temps/507.stns2003

– 50793945000 CAMPBELL ISLA -52.55 169.15 19 57R -9HIxxCO 1x-9WATER A 0

When dealing with a small place that has a large impact on the surrounding Grid Boxes and Zones (up to 1200 km in all directions from an island), the deletion of a single near polar island can cause the thermometers 1200 km north to be extended “down south” (via the “reference station method” in GIStemp). This is an example of where “Grids and boxes” will not make the situation better, but will make it far worse than this simple average benchmark.

But Wait, There’s More!

Comparing 1989 to 2009, we can see that in the last 20 years, Kiwis have been playing with their instruments!

 
[chiefio@tubularbells Temps]$ cat 507.diff.1989.2009 
- 50793119000 AUCKLAND AIRP                  -37.02  174.80    6   17U  145FLxxCO 1A 1COASTAL EDGES   C   20
- 50793119000 AUCKLAND AIRP                  -37.02  174.80    6   17U  145FLxxCO 1A 1COASTAL EDGES   C   20
- 50793119000 AUCKLAND AIRP                  -37.02  174.80    6   17U  145FLxxCO 1A 1COASTAL EDGES   C   20
- 50793436001 WELLINGTON                     -41.30  174.80  128    0U  136HIxxCO 1x-9WARM CROPS      C   40
- 50793780000 CHRISTCHURCH                   -43.48  172.52   37   47U  165FLxxCO15A 2WARM CROPS      C   13
- 50793780000 CHRISTCHURCH                   -43.48  172.52   37   47U  165FLxxCO15A 2WARM CROPS      C   13
- 50793844000 INVERCARGILL                   -46.70  168.55    4   28S   49FLxxCO 1A 1WARM MIXED      A    0
- 50793844000 INVERCARGILL                   -46.70  168.55    4   28S   49FLxxCO 1A 1WARM MIXED      A    0
- 50793945000 CAMPBELL ISLA                  -52.55  169.15   19   57R   -9HIxxCO 1x-9WATER           A    0
- 50793945000 CAMPBELL ISLA                  -52.55  169.15   19   57R   -9HIxxCO 1x-9WATER           A    0
- 50793945000 CAMPBELL ISLA                  -52.55  169.15   19   57R   -9HIxxCO 1x-9WATER           A    0
- 50793945000 CAMPBELL ISLA                  -52.55  169.15   19   57R   -9HIxxCO 1x-9WATER           A    0
- 50793947000 Campbell                       -52.00  169.00   19   57R   -9HIxxCO 1x-9WATER           A    0
- 50793987000 CHATHAM ISLAN                  -43.95 -176.57   49    0R   -9HIxxCO 1A-9WATER           A    0
- 50793987000 CHATHAM ISLAN                  -43.95 -176.57   49    0R   -9HIxxCO 1A-9WATER           A    0
- 50793987000 CHATHAM ISLAN                  -43.95 -176.57   49    0R   -9HIxxCO 1A-9WATER           A    0
- 50793994000 RAOUL ISLAND,                  -29.25 -177.92   49    0R   -9HIxxCO 1x-9WATER           A    0
- 50793994000 RAOUL ISLAND,                  -29.25 -177.92   49    0R   -9HIxxCO 1x-9WATER           A    0
- 50793994000 RAOUL ISLAND,                  -29.25 -177.92   49    0R   -9HIxxCO 1x-9WATER           A    0
[chiefio@tubularbells Temps]$ 

There were a lot of records with different “modification flags” deleted. I don’t know if it was equipment changes, or procedure changes, or what; but somebody was fiddling around with the equipment or the records or both to the tune of several modification records for each of several locations until they got it “right”, whatever “it” was and whatever “right” was…

What was left over for 2009?

[chiefio@tubularbells analysis]$ cat Temps/507.stns2009
50793012000 KAITAIA                        -35.13  173.27   87   91R   -9FLxxCO 7A-9WARM DECIDUOUS  A    0
50793292000 GISBORNE AERO                  -38.65  177.98    5   65S   30FLxxCO 2A 2WATER           C   22
50793309000 NEW PLYMOUTH                   -39.02  174.18   32    0S   44FLxxCO 2A10WARM FIELD WOODSB    0
50793615000 HOKITIKA AERO                  -42.72  170.98   40    0R   -9HIxxCO 1A-9WARM MIXED      B    0
50793780000 CHRISTCHURCH                   -43.48  172.52   37   47U  165FLxxCO15A 2WARM CROPS      C   13
50793844000 INVERCARGILL                   -46.70  168.55    4   28S   49FLxxCO 1A 1WARM MIXED      A    0
50793987000 CHATHAM ISLAN                  -43.95 -176.57   49    0R   -9HIxxCO 1A-9WATER           A    0
50793994000 RAOUL ISLAND,                  -29.25 -177.92   49    0R   -9HIxxCO 1x-9WATER           A    0
[chiefio@tubularbells analysis]$ 

Eight thermometers. All of them with either the word “WARM” or “WATER” in the name. So what about those snowy mountain peaks?

Here they are in “ragged right” so you can see the whole record:

[chiefio@tubularbells analysis]$ cat Temps/507.stns2009
50793012000 KAITAIA -35.13 173.27 87 91R -9FLxxCO 7A-9WARM DECIDUOUS A 0
50793292000 GISBORNE AERO -38.65 177.98 5 65S 30FLxxCO 2A 2WATER C 22
50793309000 NEW PLYMOUTH -39.02 174.18 32 0S 44FLxxCO 2A10WARM FIELD WOODSB 0
50793615000 HOKITIKA AERO -42.72 170.98 40 0R -9HIxxCO 1A-9WARM MIXED B 0
50793780000 CHRISTCHURCH -43.48 172.52 37 47U 165FLxxCO15A 2WARM CROPS C 13
50793844000 INVERCARGILL -46.70 168.55 4 28S 49FLxxCO 1A 1WARM MIXED A 0
50793987000 CHATHAM ISLAN -43.95 -176.57 49 0R -9HIxxCO 1A-9WATER A 0
50793994000 RAOUL ISLAND, -29.25 -177.92 49 0R -9HIxxCO 1x-9WATER A 0
[chiefio@tubularbells analysis]$

One of the interesting things, here, is that number right after the latitude and longitude and the one butted up against the Rural Urban Suburban flag. That’s the elevation in meters. Measured 2 different ways. The first is measured, the second is “interpolated” from a data base. They are usually close to each other.

Looks to me like the thermometers don’t like the mountains, and headed to the beaches in the warmer bits… (Though in fairness, it looks like the temperatures were not reported from the mountains at least as far back as 1922). It is an odd curiosity that we can make grand pronouncements about the “global average temperature” by measuring it at airports near the beach and avoiding all the mountains and snowy parts …

The data format of those records is described here, about 1/2 way down:

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/02/24/ghcn-global-historical-climate-network/

The New Zealand Temperature Series

Same as the others. Year, 12 monthly averages of the daily MIN-MAX average, the average of those daily values over the whole year, and the number of thermometer locations (ignoring modification flag) in use in that year.

What I see in this series is a fairly rock steady trend between 11.x C and 12.x C with some rolling. Hot in the 1939’s, cold in 1950, but hitting 13 C in 1956; then cool again in the early 1990’s until Campbell Island was sunk and the average is “juiced” about 1 C as a step function to be consitently 13.small C since then.

Now I’m certain that the AGW True Believers will try to hand wave this away with Zones, and Grid Boxes, and Anomalies (Oh My!). But the fact is that the GIStemp code, with the deletion of that island, will no longer be able to “fill in” the grid boxes around that island from that island, and they will start to reach out further looking for a thermometer to use. And those thermometers will be the warm ones on the beach of New Zealand. Up to 1200 km away in GIStemp STEP2 alone. Grids and boxes will spread this heat south to where there was a thermometer in the past, but that is being used no more by GHCN.

Notice also how February / March and October / November show jumps rather well? (May and September too, somewhat). I’ve noticed that the spring and fall monthly averages reflect this kind of thermometer change more than the dead middle of winter or summer. I suspect because these transition months are more variable with latitude than the others.

At an rate, it is worth noting that shifts in those months are more diagnostic of thermometer change. If it were a CO2 induced “global warming” I would not expect to see either the “step function” increase with flat trend on each side, nor the differential impact by month of the year.

The other thing to note is that there is a pronounced seasonal variation to the data and the average is about 10C below the more tropical islands that make up the rest of the Pacific Basin Islands. I think it is an error to blend New Zealand in with the equatorial islands when looking for temperature trends. And this leads to a more general principle, IMHO: Trends (or the lack of trends) will be more visible inside bands of similar latitude.

WIth that, here is the New Zealand temperature series. I can see the comings and goings of thermometers, and maybe a bit of playing with the instruments: But I see no generalized “warming” signal from any long term growth of CO2. If Campbell Island data are still available, it would be very very interesting to add them back in and see if this step function rise of 1C steps back out again…

Look at ./Temps/Temps.507.yrs.GAT (Y/N)? y
 
Thermometer Records, Average of Monthly Data and Yearly Average
by Year Across Month, with a count of thermometer records in that year 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
YEAR  JAN  FEB  MAR  APR  MAY  JUN JULY  AUG SEPT  OCT  NOV  DEC  YR COUNT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
1880 16.6 17.3 15.7 14.0 11.4  8.4  8.2  8.5 11.0 11.6 14.4 14.8 12.7   6
1881 15.4 17.0 15.6 14.1 11.8  9.8  9.1  9.1 11.3 11.7 13.1 14.9 12.7   4
1882 16.1 15.2 16.0 13.9 11.1  9.9  8.6  8.4 11.0 11.0 12.9 15.9 12.5   4
1883 17.2 17.6 15.8 12.5 11.3  9.4  8.2  8.9  9.5 11.0 12.0 14.2 12.3   4
1884 14.0 14.7 14.2 12.2  9.8  9.0  8.2  9.1 10.2 11.0 12.2 14.1 11.6   4
1885 15.1 16.2 15.4 12.7 10.5  9.9  8.3  8.8  9.8 11.2 13.0 14.1 12.1   4
1886 16.0 17.1 15.4 13.9 11.5  8.2  7.6  8.0  9.6 11.4 13.5 14.5 12.2   4
1887 18.7 17.2 16.2 14.1 10.7  9.3  8.2  7.9  9.4 11.2 12.1 14.6 12.5   4
1888 16.1 14.9 14.5 12.0 10.4  9.1  8.1  9.3  9.8 11.6 11.4 13.1 11.7   4
1889 17.4 16.4 14.7 12.8 11.0  9.4  7.7  8.3 10.8 12.3 13.1 15.7 12.5   4
1890 15.3 16.5 14.9 14.1 10.5  9.4  8.1  8.8 10.8 12.6 12.9 15.8 12.5   4
1891 15.6 15.9 14.8 12.9 10.1  7.4  7.5  8.6 10.9 13.1 14.2 17.1 12.3   4
1892 16.5 16.8 16.5 14.2 11.3  9.9  8.5  9.9 10.2 11.6 15.1 14.9 12.9   4
1893 16.4 16.0 13.6 13.7 12.2  8.9  8.8 10.7 11.0 12.9 15.0 14.8 12.8   4
1894 17.4 17.1 15.1 12.4 10.9  9.4  8.4  8.8  9.7 12.5 13.6 17.1 12.7   5
1895 17.7 16.8 14.5 11.7 10.6  8.8  6.4  7.7 10.6 11.6 12.7 16.4 12.1   5
1896 16.4 15.9 14.9 13.0 10.4  9.2  8.5  8.3 10.6 10.6 12.1 15.8 12.1   5
1897 17.2 16.3 15.0 12.9 10.7  8.8  8.1  8.1 10.3 10.9 12.9 14.1 12.1   5
1898 15.9 14.3 13.7 13.0 10.7  8.9  7.9  8.3 10.3 11.4 13.3 16.1 12.0   5
1899 16.5 15.6 15.2 13.6 10.1  9.1  6.7  7.9 10.6 11.4 12.9 14.5 12.0   5
1900 15.3 15.1 15.5 14.0 10.9  8.4  8.1  9.8 10.6 12.4 12.6 14.5 12.3   5
1901 15.4 15.3 13.7 13.0 10.4  9.6  7.4  7.6 10.1 11.6 11.8 13.9 11.7   5
1902 15.9 15.8 15.5 12.6  9.8  9.0  7.2  8.1  8.1  9.8 11.1 12.3 11.3   5
1903 13.9 14.8 13.7 12.3 10.7  7.7  8.0  7.4  9.1 12.4 13.6 15.6 11.6   5
1904 15.5 15.7 15.1 12.4 10.0  8.9  7.6  8.0 10.1 11.2 11.9 13.1 11.6   5
1905 13.7 15.8 14.8 11.8 10.4  7.7  7.4  8.4  9.8 10.9 12.9 14.1 11.5   6
1906 14.4 14.5 13.0 11.6 10.0  8.7  8.0  8.3  9.4 11.5 12.4 14.8 11.4   6
1907 16.4 16.6 15.7 14.1 10.1  7.9  7.6  8.0  9.2 10.3 13.1 15.8 12.1   6
1908 16.0 15.4 14.9 12.5 10.9  9.1  7.0  7.4 10.2 11.3 12.5 13.7 11.7   6
1909 14.6 16.2 15.6 12.6 11.4  8.5  8.1  9.2  9.7 11.7 13.4 16.2 12.3   6
1910 15.9 17.2 15.4 12.3 11.2  9.3  7.2  8.7  9.8 12.0 13.5 15.1 12.3   6
1911 15.7 15.3 15.9 14.9 11.0  8.9  7.7  8.5  9.7 11.0 12.0 12.1 11.9   6
1912 14.7 13.8 13.3 12.3  9.4  8.1  7.9  7.7 10.5 11.2 12.3 14.5 11.3   6
1913 16.1 14.9 14.5 11.3  8.4  7.4  7.9  8.6 10.4 11.7 12.9 13.8 11.5   6
1914 16.6 15.9 15.0 13.1  9.7  7.9  7.5  7.8  9.6 11.1 11.9 12.6 11.6   6
1915 16.2 15.2 13.6 11.9 10.5  8.3  8.9  9.0 11.8 13.2 13.2 15.5 12.3   5
1916 16.3 18.0 17.5 14.0 11.4 10.5  8.5  8.7 10.8 12.0 14.6 17.0 13.3   5
1917 17.8 16.2 15.9 14.3 11.8  9.3  9.3  8.6 11.3 12.6 14.5 15.1 13.1   5
1918 16.8 17.8 15.8 13.5 10.5  8.6  6.2  8.3  9.9 12.0 12.5 13.6 12.1   5
1919 14.8 16.6 14.9 12.0  9.7  8.3  8.1  8.8  9.1 11.8 12.0 14.0 11.7   5
1920 14.8 16.8 15.1 13.3  9.5  8.4  8.3  7.6  9.5 12.2 12.5 15.1 11.9   5
1921 16.0 15.9 14.8 12.3 11.1  8.8  7.8  8.4 10.7 12.1 13.3 14.7 12.2   5
1922 16.6 17.1 14.2 13.0 10.6  7.5  7.5  8.9 10.2 13.3 13.2 15.3 12.3   5
1923 16.7 15.0 14.1 11.4 10.8  7.9  7.0  7.7 10.7 12.1 15.3 16.7 12.1   5
1924 17.3 17.8 16.4 15.7 10.8  8.8  7.7  9.1 11.5 13.0 14.5 14.9 13.1   5
1925 16.8 16.0 14.4 12.6 10.0  7.5  8.2  8.1  9.3 12.1 12.5 14.9 11.9   5
1926 16.6 14.8 14.2 14.2 10.6  8.3  8.1  8.6 10.3 11.9 12.6 14.6 12.1   5
1927 16.9 17.2 15.1 12.0  9.9  7.0  7.9  7.9 10.3 11.9 12.4 14.5 11.9   5
1928 16.6 17.8 16.5 14.9 11.3  8.3  8.6  8.7 10.2 12.1 13.4 15.0 12.8   5
1929 16.4 16.1 15.3 12.8  9.8  9.3  7.4  8.1  9.2 11.9 13.4 14.4 12.0   5
1930 15.2 15.9 14.6 12.9 10.0  7.6  6.4  8.5  8.8 10.4 11.8 14.6 11.4   5
1931 15.4 14.6 14.1 12.5 10.1  7.4  7.4  7.8  8.5 12.0 14.1 15.1 11.6   5
1932 15.0 15.7 14.9 13.2  9.7  7.9  6.6  7.0  9.7 12.4 13.8 14.9 11.7   5
1933 17.0 17.0 15.8 12.8  9.8  7.1  7.6  8.3 10.3 11.8 13.1 15.7 12.2   5
1934 15.1 16.4 14.6 13.6  9.7  8.1  7.0  8.8 10.5 11.9 15.1 18.3 12.4   5
1935 18.6 18.4 16.4 14.1  9.8  8.0  7.3  8.6  8.6 12.1 11.9 17.1 12.6   5
1936 16.8 16.1 13.4 13.8  9.3  8.2  7.1  9.3  9.8 12.8 13.4 14.2 12.0   5
1937 15.3 14.3 14.9 12.3 10.4  7.0  7.0  8.9  9.9 11.3 13.9 16.4 11.8   5
1938 17.6 18.9 17.1 15.7 11.6  8.4  6.6  8.6 10.3 12.4 14.1 14.2 13.0   5
1939 13.8 14.6 14.5 12.7 10.2  9.1  6.0  7.6  9.4 10.8 12.6 15.2 11.4   6
1940 16.5 14.6 15.8 13.2 11.8  9.9  9.3 10.6 11.5 12.5 13.6 16.2 13.0   7
1941 18.0 17.6 17.3 13.7 12.6  9.6  8.6  8.4 10.1 10.6 12.4 13.9 12.7   8
1942 14.6 15.4 14.4 13.4 11.6 10.0  9.2  9.2 10.7 11.8 12.8 14.0 12.3   8
1943 15.4 15.8 14.3 13.6 10.6  7.7  8.8  8.5 10.3 11.4 13.4 15.1 12.1   8
1944 15.7 16.2 15.5 13.9 11.0  8.9  9.0  8.8  9.6 11.3 12.5 14.0 12.2   8
1945 16.4 17.7 15.1 13.0 10.6  8.4  8.1  9.8 10.0 10.2 12.7 13.2 12.1   8
1946 14.8 15.7 14.8 13.1 11.8  9.7  9.2  9.2 10.3 11.0 11.0 13.3 12.0   8
1947 14.5 15.3 14.8 13.0 11.2  9.2  8.9  9.4 10.3 11.5 12.9 14.7 12.1   8
1948 16.0 14.5 14.4 12.5 10.7  8.6  8.5  8.5  9.7 10.5 11.8 13.4 11.6   9
1949 13.8 15.3 13.5 11.6 10.4  8.6  8.4  8.3  9.2 11.0 12.2 13.7 11.3   9
1950 15.1 14.5 13.1 11.3 10.9  8.7  7.6  7.7  9.1 10.8 12.1 13.2 11.2  10
1951 15.0 15.3 14.9 13.1 10.0  7.8  8.2  8.1  9.4 10.9 12.9 13.5 11.6  15
1952 14.6 16.1 14.1 12.8 10.5  9.0  8.0  9.4 10.4 11.5 12.8 14.8 12.0  15
1953 15.0 14.9 14.4 12.5 11.1  9.2  8.3  9.0  9.9 10.8 13.5 14.9 12.0  16
1954 15.3 16.2 15.8 12.7 11.5  9.5  7.9  8.6  9.5 10.9 13.6 14.4 12.2  16
1955 16.2 17.2 15.8 14.0 12.2  8.8  8.2  9.7 10.8 12.6 13.6 15.3 12.9  15
1956 17.6 16.2 14.5 15.3 11.6 10.1  8.7  9.1 10.6 12.4 13.9 15.5 13.0  15
1957 16.7 17.3 16.3 14.1 11.6  9.1  8.1  9.4 10.5 11.5 13.1 14.2 12.7  15
1958 15.3 17.1 15.9 12.2 11.1  9.1  7.9  9.3 10.0 13.0 13.9 15.8 12.6  15
1959 16.7 16.2 15.3 13.5  9.6  8.6  8.4  9.1 10.7 11.1 13.2 15.1 12.3  15
1960 15.9 16.3 14.6 13.1 11.5  9.7  8.8  8.9 10.4 12.5 13.4 14.2 12.4  15
1961 15.5 15.9 14.4 13.0 10.7  9.2  8.4  8.8  9.7 12.5 13.2 15.5 12.2  17
1962 16.6 16.1 15.5 13.4 12.6 10.3  9.3  9.5 10.4 12.9 13.4 14.9 12.9  19
1963 16.1 16.8 14.6 12.4 10.8  8.9  8.5  8.0 10.2 11.4 12.1 13.8 12.0  19
1964 15.0 15.7 14.9 12.6 10.5  9.1  9.3  8.8 10.1 11.5 12.5 15.4 12.1  19
1965 16.7 15.1 14.9 12.5 10.2  8.9  7.7  8.5 10.0 10.4 12.5 14.2 11.8  19
1966 15.5 16.9 15.3 13.2 10.4  8.8  8.2  8.4  9.9 11.1 12.5 14.3 12.0  19
1967 15.6 15.8 15.6 13.2 10.8  8.7  8.2 10.3  9.7 12.1 12.7 14.9 12.3  19
1968 15.6 15.9 16.5 13.6 11.8  9.7  8.2  9.7  9.7 11.2 12.7 14.1 12.4  19
1969 15.8 15.4 14.8 12.4 10.7  8.6  7.9  9.1 11.3 10.6 13.4 16.0 12.2  19
1970 16.7 16.1 15.9 13.7 10.7  9.8  9.4  9.9 10.7 11.9 13.4 15.7 12.8  19
1971 16.5 17.0 15.4 13.6 11.9 10.8  8.5 10.0 10.6 11.8 13.2 15.1 12.9  17
1972 15.4 15.3 15.9 13.3 10.7  7.8  8.6  8.1 10.7 11.8 14.0 13.9 12.1  17
1973 15.8 16.2 15.4 13.1 11.0  9.7  8.3  9.4 11.1 11.9 13.6 15.3 12.6  17
1974 15.6 17.6 14.4 13.9 11.3  9.2  9.2  9.0 11.1 11.8 14.0 16.4 12.8  17
1975 17.5 17.0 16.4 14.1 11.7  8.8  8.5  9.4 10.5 11.9 12.6 14.1 12.7  17
1976 15.8 14.5 15.3 13.4 10.7  8.4  8.5  9.5  9.9 11.0 12.1 15.0 12.0  17
1977 15.3 16.1 15.4 13.4 10.1  9.2  8.8  9.3  9.1 11.2 12.7 14.6 12.1  17
1978 16.5 16.8 15.6 14.7 11.6  9.0  9.2  9.8 10.3 11.1 13.2 15.3 12.8  17
1979 16.3 16.1 16.1 13.5 10.9 10.1  9.2  9.1 10.6 11.8 14.0 15.3 12.8  17
1980 16.3 16.5 14.8 13.1 11.2  9.3  8.5  9.2 11.0 12.3 12.2 14.7 12.4  17
1981 16.3 16.6 16.1 14.2 11.1 10.3  9.1  8.5 10.0 11.6 13.2 16.0 12.8  13
1982 16.1 16.8 15.2 12.4 11.5  9.0  8.2  8.7 10.0 10.5 13.4 13.9 12.1  12
1983 15.3 14.6 14.6 12.8 10.6  9.3  8.5  9.4 10.1 11.7 13.2 14.3 12.0  12
1984 14.8 16.2 15.9 13.0 10.4  9.9  9.2  9.5 10.2 11.2 13.6 15.9 12.5  12
1985 17.2 16.6 13.9 13.3 11.1 10.0  9.5  8.6  9.9 10.6 12.8 14.5 12.3  12
1986 16.7 17.1 15.3 13.8 11.4  9.5  7.7  8.0  9.1 11.4 12.5 13.5 12.2  11
1987 17.1 15.9 14.5 13.1 11.4  9.4  8.7  9.8 10.0 11.8 13.6 15.1 12.5  12
1988 15.9 16.8 14.8 12.5 10.7  9.7  9.5  9.4 11.1 12.4 13.8 15.8 12.7  12
1989 17.0 16.3 15.4 13.2 11.3  9.5  8.4  9.7 11.1 11.8 13.0 13.7 12.5  12
1990 15.1 16.1 14.8 12.2 10.5  8.3  7.9  8.6  8.9 11.1 12.8 15.7 11.8   9
1991 16.5 16.6 15.5 12.9 10.8  8.2  7.9 10.5 10.8 11.7 11.4 13.6 12.2  10
1992 16.0 15.6 13.4 10.9  8.2  7.5  8.3  7.9  8.5 10.8 13.3 13.7 11.2  11
1993 14.9 15.2 13.9 11.7 10.4  9.1  8.4  7.9  8.6 11.5 12.0 13.5 11.4  11
1994 16.1 16.0 13.8 12.0 10.4  7.0  7.6  8.2  8.2 10.3  6.6 14.6 10.9  10
1995 14.2 15.6 13.9 13.3 10.4  7.3  2.8  7.7  9.2 10.2 11.5 14.7 10.9   8
1996 15.7 15.5 14.1 13.3 10.1  7.6  7.4  7.2 10.5 11.2 11.7 14.1 11.5  10
1997 14.6 15.7 14.0 11.8 10.7  8.9  8.1  8.7  9.4 11.2 13.2 14.3 11.7  10
1998 16.2 18.4 15.7 13.4 11.3  8.6  9.6  8.8 10.6 12.2 13.1 15.1 12.8  10
1999 17.0 16.8 16.1 13.2 12.0  9.9  9.3  9.2 11.0 12.8 14.1 14.6 13.0  10
2000 16.2 16.5 15.3 13.8 12.1 10.2 10.0  8.5 10.9 12.3 12.5 16.2 12.9   9
2001 14.8 16.2 15.3 13.6 12.0  9.6  8.2  9.9 11.9 13.1 14.9 17.5 13.1   9
2002 17.8 16.9 16.9 14.3 12.3 11.2  9.6  9.5 11.1 11.0 12.8 15.2 13.2   9
2003 16.9 17.2 17.2 14.2 12.6 11.3  8.6  9.8 11.6 12.3 13.5 16.4 13.5   8
2004 18.2 17.2 15.4 12.6 12.5 10.8  8.9  8.8 10.6 12.4 14.5 14.0 13.0   8
2005 17.5 18.9 16.6 13.3 12.9  9.1  9.8 10.2 11.6 12.7 14.1 17.7 13.7   8
2006 17.9 17.8 15.1 15.4 12.2  8.5  9.4  9.5 11.8 12.6 14.2 14.4 13.2   8
2007 17.2 17.4 17.0 12.2 13.4  9.3  8.9  9.8 11.0 11.7 12.6 15.8 13.0   9
2008 15.9  9.6 12.8 12.8  9.7  9.2  9.2  9.2 11.8 12.5 14.4 16.7 12.0   9
     16.0 16.2 15.2 13.2 11.0  9.1  8.4  9.0 10.2 11.6 13.0 14.8 12.3
     16.0 16.1 15.1 13.1 10.8  8.9  8.2  8.8 10.2 11.7 13.0 14.9 12.2
 
For Country Code 507

After a decade of cooling from the 1998 world peak, we have almost cooled New Zealand off enough to get back to “normal” despite missing the temperatures from a very cold island…

While I can’t put Campbell Island back in, I can take it out of the past:
The commands used were:

$ cat Temps.507 | grep -v ^50793945000 > Temps.Sp.507
$ ../bin/lmyears Temps.Sp.507
$ cat Temps.Sp.507.yrs.GAT

The file “Temps.507” is the raw data file fed into my program that makes the “by latitude” charts. “grep” is a commend that does a “global regular expression” application and “print”. In this case the regular expression has a start of line indicator and the stationID. The “-v” flag says “don’t let things matching the regular experssion, or pattern, through”. The result is put into a file named Temps.Sp.507 or a “special” version. The net effect of this is to make a copy of the Temp.507 input file with that one station removed. I then run the program that makes the chart and give it the special input. Finally “cat” or “concatenate and print” shows the results.

Though in this posting I’m going to chop off the first 60 years or so. The thermometer count was very low and the numbers match the above list. It is in 1941 that the thermometer counts first diverge (the island enters the record), so that is where we see the impact of the island, and can see what it’s removal will do to the series going forward. Gee, look at all those 13.x and even 14.x temperatures! And our 2008 temperature at 12C is now a significant down trend from the high of 1998 1999 at 13.4 and 13.7 degrees.


Thermometer Records, Average of Monthly Data and Yearly Average
by Year Across Month, with a count of thermometer records in that year 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
YEAR  JAN  FEB  MAR  APR  MAY  JUN JULY  AUG SEPT  OCT  NOV  DEC  YR COUNT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
1939 13.8 14.6 14.5 12.7 10.2  9.1  6.0  7.6  9.4 10.8 12.6 15.2 11.4   6
1940 16.5 14.6 15.8 13.2 11.8  9.9  9.3 10.6 11.5 12.5 13.6 16.2 13.0   7
1941 18.0 17.6 17.3 13.7 12.6  9.6  9.7  9.6 11.3 11.9 14.0 15.5 13.4   7
1942 16.1 17.1 16.1 15.2 13.2 10.9 10.4 10.5 11.9 13.3 14.5 15.7 13.7   7
1943 17.1 17.6 16.1 15.1 11.9  8.6  9.7  9.5 11.6 12.7 15.0 16.9 13.5   7
1944 17.5 18.2 17.0 15.5 12.2 10.3 10.0 10.0 10.9 12.9 14.1 15.3 13.7   7
1945 18.0 18.3 16.9 14.7 12.0  9.5  9.1 11.1 11.4 11.6 14.3 14.7 13.5   7
1946 16.4 17.5 16.4 14.9 13.3 11.1 10.5 10.5 11.7 12.4 12.4 15.0 13.5   7
1947 16.0 16.9 16.3 14.7 12.6 10.6 10.2 10.6 11.9 13.2 14.3 16.4 13.6   7
1948 17.9 16.0 15.8 13.9 11.8  9.6  9.5  9.4 10.6 11.5 13.0 14.6 12.8   8
1949 15.1 16.9 15.0 12.8 11.2  9.8  9.5  9.4 10.3 12.4 13.4 14.9 12.6   8
1950 16.3 16.1 14.6 12.7 12.2  9.1  8.4  8.6 10.1 12.0 13.5 14.7 12.4   9
1951 16.2 16.5 16.1 14.1 10.7  8.3  8.8  8.7 10.3 11.9 13.6 14.5 12.5  14
1952 15.8 17.4 15.4 13.9 11.6  9.9  8.6 10.2 11.1 12.6 13.9 15.8 13.0  14
1953 16.0 16.1 15.6 13.8 12.2 10.2  9.0  9.7 10.8 11.8 14.8 16.1 13.0  15
1954 16.6 17.5 16.9 13.7 12.3 10.4  8.9  9.3 10.3 11.9 14.7 15.6 13.2  15
1955 17.5 18.8 17.3 15.5 13.3  9.8  8.9 10.7 11.8 13.6 14.7 16.5 14.0  14
1956 19.0 17.8 15.9 16.8 12.7 11.0  9.6  9.9 11.5 13.5 15.1 16.6 14.1  14
1957 17.8 18.6 17.4 15.1 12.6  9.9  8.7 10.2 11.3 12.2 14.2 15.3 13.6  14
1958 16.5 18.5 17.3 13.3 12.0  9.9  8.6 10.0 10.7 14.0 15.0 17.1 13.6  14
1959 18.1 17.6 16.6 14.5 10.5  9.2  9.2  9.7 11.6 12.1 14.4 16.4 13.3  14
1960 17.3 17.5 15.8 14.0 12.3 10.5  9.5  9.6 11.3 13.4 14.4 15.3 13.4  14
1961 16.9 17.5 15.8 14.2 11.7 10.0  9.3  9.4 10.7 13.6 14.3 16.7 13.3  16
1962 18.1 17.4 16.7 14.6 13.7 11.1 10.0 10.3 11.2 14.1 14.5 15.9 14.0  18
1963 17.2 18.0 15.7 13.4 11.7  9.6  9.2  8.8 11.0 12.4 13.2 15.0 12.9  18
1964 16.2 16.9 16.1 13.7 11.4  9.9 10.0  9.7 10.9 12.4 13.5 16.4 13.1  18
1965 17.9 16.3 15.9 13.6 11.1  9.6  8.3  9.2 10.8 11.4 13.6 15.4 12.8  18
1966 16.8 18.3 16.6 14.3 11.2  9.5  8.8  9.0 10.7 12.1 13.5 15.4 13.0  18
1967 16.7 17.1 16.8 14.4 11.8  9.3  8.8 11.1 10.5 13.0 13.9 16.1 13.3  18
1968 16.8 17.0 17.8 14.5 12.6 10.5  8.8 10.3 10.5 12.1 13.5 14.9 13.3  18
1969 16.8 16.5 16.0 13.4 11.5  9.2  8.3  9.7 12.2 11.6 14.3 17.2 13.1  18
1970 18.2 17.3 17.2 14.9 11.5 10.5 10.0 10.6 11.8 13.0 14.4 16.1 13.8  18
1971 17.6 18.1 16.4 14.5 12.7 11.4  8.9 10.7 11.4 12.7 14.2 16.1 13.7  16
1972 16.3 16.2 17.0 14.3 11.6  8.5  9.3  8.7 11.6 12.7 15.2 14.8 13.0  16
1973 16.8 17.3 16.3 14.0 12.0 10.4  8.7 10.0 11.9 12.9 14.8 16.3 13.4  16
1974 16.6 18.9 15.4 14.8 12.1  9.9 10.0  9.6 11.8 12.7 14.9 17.4 13.7  16
1975 18.4 18.0 17.4 15.0 12.6  9.4  9.1 10.2 11.2 12.8 13.5 15.1 13.6  16
1976 16.9 15.5 16.3 14.3 11.4  9.1  9.2 10.2 10.5 11.8 13.0 15.8 12.8  16
1977 16.3 17.2 16.4 14.4 10.8  9.9  9.4  9.8  9.7 12.0 13.5 15.4 12.9  16
1978 17.5 17.9 16.7 15.6 12.3  9.7  9.7 10.3 10.9 11.7 14.1 16.1 13.5  16
1979 17.4 17.2 17.2 14.3 11.6 10.6  9.6  9.6 11.3 12.5 14.7 16.2 13.5  16
1980 17.4 17.5 15.6 13.9 11.9  9.9  9.0  9.7 11.7 13.1 13.2 15.7 13.2  16
1981 17.8 18.2 17.4 15.3 11.9 11.1  9.7  9.2 10.9 12.6 14.4 17.3 13.8  12
1982 17.6 18.3 16.4 13.2 12.3  9.6  8.8  9.4 10.8 11.4 14.9 15.3 13.2  11
1983 16.2 15.6 16.2 14.0 11.7 10.2  9.0 10.1 11.2 12.7 14.3 15.5 13.1  11
1984 16.1 17.7 17.3 14.2 11.4 10.6 10.0 10.4 10.9 12.2 15.0 17.4 13.6  11
1985 18.7 18.0 15.1 14.4 11.9 10.2 10.3  9.2 10.7 11.6 14.1 16.1 13.4  11
1986 18.3 18.5 16.5 14.9 12.5 10.3  8.4  8.7 10.0 12.5 13.6 15.9 13.3  10
1987 18.2 17.1 15.5 14.1 12.2 10.2  9.3 10.5 10.9 12.9 14.7 16.3 13.5  11
1988 17.2 18.2 16.1 13.4 11.8 10.5 10.3 10.1 12.0 13.3 15.1 16.9 13.7  11
1989 18.3 17.6 16.8 14.2 12.1 10.2  8.9 10.3 11.8 12.9 14.3 14.9 13.5  11
1990 16.5 17.7 16.2 13.6 11.5  8.8  8.4  9.2  9.7 12.2 13.9 15.7 12.8   8
1991 16.5 16.6 15.5 12.9 10.8  8.2  7.9 11.3 10.8 11.7 12.1 14.5 12.4   9
1992 16.8 16.4 14.1 11.4  8.6  8.0  8.7  9.2  8.5 11.6 14.3 14.9 11.9  10
1993 16.3 16.4 15.3 12.5 11.3  9.9  8.8  8.5  9.3 12.7 13.3 14.8 12.4  10
1994 17.7 17.6 15.2 13.0 11.3  7.6  8.1  8.2  8.2 11.1-99.0 15.7 12.2   9
1995 15.1 16.5 14.8 13.9 10.8  7.9  3.0  8.1  9.7 10.9 12.2 15.6 11.5   7
1996 16.5 16.3 15.0 13.3 10.1  7.6  7.4  7.2 10.5 11.2 12.3 14.7 11.8   9
1997 15.2 16.4 14.7 12.4 11.3  9.3  8.4  9.1  9.9 11.8 13.2 15.0 12.2   9
1998 16.9 19.5 16.6 14.1 11.8  9.0 10.1  9.3 11.2 12.9 13.8 15.7 13.4   9
1999 17.8 17.4 16.9 13.8 12.5 10.5  9.8  9.7 11.6 13.6 15.0 15.4 13.7   9
2000 17.1 17.4 16.1 14.7 12.7 10.9 10.5  9.0 11.5 13.0 13.4 17.3 13.6   8
2001 15.6 17.3 16.1 14.3 12.9 10.1  8.6 10.4 11.9 14.0 14.9 17.5 13.6   8
2002 17.8 16.9 16.9 14.3 12.3 11.2  9.6 10.1 11.8 11.5 13.5 15.9 13.5   8
2003 16.9 17.2 17.2 14.2 12.6 11.3  8.6  9.8 11.6 12.3 13.5 16.4 13.5   8
2004 18.2 17.2 15.4 12.6 12.5 10.8  8.9  8.8 10.6 12.4 14.5 14.0 13.0   8
2005 17.5 18.9 16.6 13.3 12.9  9.1  9.8 10.2 11.6 12.7 14.1 17.7 13.7   8
2006 17.9 17.8 15.1 15.4 12.2  8.5  9.4  9.5 11.8 12.6 14.2 14.4 13.2   8
2007 17.2 17.4 17.0 12.2 13.4  9.3  8.9  9.8 11.0 11.7 12.6 15.8 13.0   9
2008 15.9  9.6 12.8 12.8  9.7  9.2  9.2  9.2 11.8 12.5 14.4 16.7 12.0   9
     16.9 17.1 16.0 14.0 11.6  9.6  8.9  9.5 10.8 12.3 13.9 15.6 13.0
     16.6 16.7 15.6 13.6 11.3  9.2  8.5  9.1 10.6 12.1 13.6 15.4 12.7
[chiefio@tubularbells Temps]$ 

Such is the impact of One Little Island…

The temperature history is dominated by instrument changes and thermometer count changes. The best way to examine it, is one station at a time. Then take those individual trends and compare or average them. Averaging the raw data will simply let thermometer changes mislead your conclusions; unless you use it, as done here, to inform your ignorance about just how bad a strategy averging really is.

So how does New Zealand stack up to the rest of the Pacific Islands? I put this as an update on the other Pacific Ocean posting, but it ought to be repeated here for the benefit of folks who only read a posting once. I’ve also added some station data below the temperature chart.

Next, the Pacific Basin without Australia and New Zealand

It doesn’t get much more dead flat than this. ANY “anomaly map” or ANY claim that there is “Global Warming” in the Pacific is based on a fabrication of a fantasy. It just isn’t in the base data. Period.

That next to the far right field is the average of the temperature records for that year. Each month also has a remarkably flat temperature series. The Pacific Ocean just does not change average temperatures very much. Run you eye down that far right and notice how the temperatures hang around 26 C to 27 C year after year, decade after decade.

[chiefio@tubularbells analysis]$ more Temps/Temps.LIST.yrs.GAT 

Thermometer Records, Average of Monthly Data and Yearly Average
by Year Across Month, with a count of thermometer records in that year 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
YEAR  JAN  FEB  MAR  APR  MAY  JUN JULY  AUG SEPT  OCT  NOV  DEC  YR COUNT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
1880 25.7 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.2 26.3 26.3 26.8 26.9 27.0 26.5 26.0 26.6   3
1881 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.9 27.4 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.4 27.1 26.7 26.8   3
1882 26.9 26.7 26.7 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.7   3
1883 26.2 26.0 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.1 26.9 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.0 26.7   4
1884 25.5 25.8 26.4 27.0 27.1 26.6 26.1 26.7 26.6 26.8 26.6 25.6 26.4   4
1885 25.8 25.7 26.4 27.4 27.5 27.0 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.3 26.8 26.2 26.7   4
1886 25.5 25.2 26.2 27.2 27.6 27.2 26.9 27.2 27.3 27.1 26.3 26.2 26.7   5
1887 25.3 25.2 25.9 26.7 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.7 26.4 26.4 26.1 25.3 26.2   4
1888 24.7 25.2 26.6 27.7 28.0 27.5 26.7 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.2 26.8   4
1889 26.2 26.2 26.9 28.4 28.6 27.8 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.2 26.4 25.7 27.1   4
1890 25.7 25.7 26.3 26.8 26.9 26.6 26.2 26.5 26.4 26.1 25.5 25.7 26.2   5
1891 25.9 26.0 26.7 27.4 28.1 27.3 27.0 26.6 27.0 27.3 26.8 26.2 26.9   7
1892 25.8 26.4 27.0 27.0 27.7 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.9 26.8 26.3 25.8 26.7   7
1893 25.5 25.7 26.3 27.4 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.7 26.9 26.7 26.3 25.8 26.4   7
1894 25.4 25.5 26.3 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.0 26.6 26.6 26.8 25.9 25.6 26.4   7
1895 25.8 25.8 26.4 27.2 27.3 27.1 26.6 26.8 27.3 27.5 26.8 26.1 26.7   7
1896 26.4 26.6 27.0 27.2 27.3 26.8 27.0 26.7 27.1 27.6 27.5 27.0 27.0   5
1897 26.2 26.6 27.0 27.4 27.6 27.8 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.3 26.8 27.1   5
1898 26.5 26.6 26.8 27.4 27.6 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.9   5
1899 26.3 26.2 26.7 27.1 27.3 26.9 26.2 26.1 26.6 26.8 26.5 26.0 26.6   4
1900 26.1 26.4 26.8 27.2 27.2 26.7 26.2 26.5 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.0 26.8   4
1901 26.9 26.5 27.0 27.9 27.9 27.2 27.0 26.7 27.4 27.4 27.4 26.7 27.2   4
1902 26.7 26.2 27.0 27.5 27.7 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.2 27.6 27.4 27.5 27.2   4
1903 26.3 26.0 27.1 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.0 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.4 25.6 26.8   8
1904 25.3 25.1 26.4 26.8 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.5 26.0 26.3   8
1905 26.1 26.1 26.8 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.8 26.6 26.9 27.4 26.7 26.9 26.9   9
1906 26.8 27.1 27.2 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.5 26.2 26.3 26.1 27.0  10
1907 25.8 25.9 26.2 26.6 26.5 26.0 25.7 25.3 25.7 26.2 26.0 25.7 26.0  10
1908 25.9 26.1 26.3 27.0 26.3 25.8 25.5 26.2 25.8 26.1 25.8 26.3 26.1  10
1909 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.5 26.2 25.5 26.1 25.8 26.2 26.1 25.6 26.2  10
1910 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.6 26.2 25.8 26.0 25.7 26.0 25.9 25.6 26.2 26.0  10
1911 26.1 26.0 26.5 26.6 26.5 26.2 25.6 25.7 25.7 26.0 26.2 26.6 26.1  11
1912 26.3 26.5 26.9 27.0 27.0 26.5 25.7 25.8 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.0 26.3  11
1913 26.1 26.2 26.8 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.7 25.3 25.5 25.5 26.0 26.1 26.0  11
1914 25.7 26.3 26.8 27.2 27.0 26.2 26.4 25.4 25.7 26.0 26.5 26.7 26.3  11
1915 26.2 26.7 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.2 25.3 25.5 25.8 25.8 25.9 26.0  12
1916 25.5 26.2 26.1 26.3 25.8 25.6 25.3 25.6 25.2 25.4 25.5 25.5 25.7  12
1917 25.4 25.4 25.7 26.2 25.8 25.5 25.4 25.1 25.0 25.1 25.6 25.3 25.5  12
1918 24.7 24.7 25.5 25.8 25.7 25.6 24.8 25.0 25.1 25.4 25.6 25.6 25.3  12
1919 25.8 26.3 26.6 26.9 26.2 25.3 24.7 25.0 26.2 26.4 25.2 25.2 25.8  12
1920 25.5 25.8 25.9 26.3 26.1 25.3 25.1 24.9 25.1 25.1 25.4 25.7 25.5  11
1921 25.9 26.2 26.5 26.0 25.6 25.2 25.4 25.2 25.5 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.7  17
1922 26.1 26.2 26.5 26.7 26.2 25.9 25.2 25.4 25.6 25.9 25.9 26.1 26.0  18
1923 26.2 26.6 26.4 26.7 26.4 25.9 25.5 25.2 25.4 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.0  17
1924 26.2 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.9 26.2 25.9 26.1 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.0 26.3  18
1925 26.4 26.1 26.6 26.9 26.6 25.9 25.5 25.9 26.1 25.9 26.1 25.9 26.2  18
1926 25.8 26.4 26.5 26.8 27.0 26.2 25.8 25.8 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.2 26.3  17
1927 26.1 26.3 26.8 26.9 26.6 26.0 25.4 25.4 25.6 25.7 26.1 26.2 26.1  18
1928 26.5 26.4 26.9 27.0 26.8 25.8 25.4 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.3  17
1929 25.6 26.2 26.2 26.6 26.4 25.8 25.1 25.1 25.4 25.7 25.9 25.9 25.8  19
1930 26.3 26.2 26.8 26.8 26.6 25.9 25.7 25.6 25.7 26.1 26.3 26.2 26.2  24
1931 26.4 26.6 26.9 27.1 27.0 26.4 25.8 25.9 26.4 25.9 26.2 25.9 26.4  26
1932 25.9 26.3 26.5 26.8 26.7 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.9 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.2  29
1933 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.9 27.0 26.3 25.7 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.0 26.3  30
1934 26.1 26.1 26.4 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.0 25.8 25.9 26.2 26.3 25.9 26.3  31
1935 26.2 26.6 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.4 26.0 25.8 26.1 26.5 26.5 26.2 26.4  32
1936 26.3 26.8 26.9 27.0 26.7 26.1 25.8 25.6 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.5 26.3  32
1937 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.0 26.6 26.4 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.6 26.5 26.5  34
1938 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.1 26.0 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.4  36
1939 26.2 26.4 26.9 26.7 26.5 25.9 25.7 25.7 25.4 25.7 26.4 26.0 26.1  37
1940 26.0 26.3 26.7 26.9 26.7 25.9 25.7 25.2 25.5 25.9 26.2 26.1 26.1  40
1941 26.4 26.8 26.9 26.7 26.4 25.6 25.2 25.2 25.4 25.7 26.3 26.4 26.1  36
1942 26.8 26.9 27.0 26.4 25.7 25.1 24.2 24.4 24.7 25.5 25.7 26.1 25.7  22
1943 26.4 26.6 26.4 26.0 25.3 24.4 24.0 24.5 24.6 25.4 26.0 26.1 25.5  22
1944 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.0 25.4 24.5 23.7 23.7 24.4 24.7 25.3 26.0 25.2  20
1945 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.1 25.0 24.4 24.3 24.4 24.6 25.0 25.6 26.2 25.4  22
1946 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.6 25.6 25.2 24.9 25.1 24.8 25.5 26.0 26.5 25.9  31
1947 27.0 26.8 27.0 27.1 26.6 26.2 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.9 25.9 26.3 26.3  37
1948 26.3 26.4 26.8 26.8 26.4 25.9 25.5 25.3 25.5 25.9 25.9 26.1 26.1  44
1949 26.0 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.3 26.1 25.7 25.4 25.8 26.1 25.9 26.1 26.1  62
1950 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.3 26.2 25.5 25.6 25.6 26.0 26.2 26.1 26.1  70
1951 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.9 26.4 26.2 25.8 26.0 26.1 26.4 26.6 26.4 26.3 127
1952 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.9 26.9 26.5 25.9 25.7 25.9 26.3 26.4 26.1 26.3 131
1953 26.0 26.3 26.7 26.9 26.6 26.1 25.7 25.7 25.9 26.4 26.5 26.2 26.2 134
1954 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.8 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.7 25.8 25.9 25.8 25.8 26.1 136
1955 25.8 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.6 25.9 25.5 25.6 25.9 26.0 25.8 25.7 26.0 141
1956 25.7 26.1 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.0 25.6 25.6 25.7 26.1 26.1 25.9 26.0 149
1957 26.0 26.1 26.4 26.8 26.7 26.1 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.2 155
1958 26.3 26.4 26.7 26.9 26.8 26.4 25.8 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.0 26.0 26.3 157
1959 26.0 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.5 26.4 25.8 25.5 25.8 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.2 159
1960 26.1 26.1 26.5 26.8 26.7 26.2 25.8 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.2 26.2 191
1961 25.9 26.5 26.7 26.9 26.7 26.0 25.7 25.6 25.9 26.1 26.4 26.3 26.2 195
1962 26.1 26.0 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.3 25.9 25.7 26.0 26.5 26.4 26.1 26.2 202
1963 25.6 25.9 26.3 26.7 26.8 26.3 25.8 25.8 26.1 26.2 26.6 26.4 26.2 204
1964 26.7 26.5 26.6 26.9 26.7 26.3 25.9 25.9 26.1 26.2 26.1 25.9 26.3 206
1965 25.7 26.1 26.2 26.5 26.5 26.0 25.5 25.6 26.0 26.3 26.5 26.4 26.1 205
1966 26.2 26.4 26.7 27.0 26.6 26.1 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.2 26.3 210
1967 26.0 26.1 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.2 25.8 25.8 26.1 26.3 26.3 26.0 26.2 209
1968 26.0 26.0 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.4 26.0 25.9 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.3 202
1969 26.4 26.4 27.0 27.1 27.1 26.6 25.9 25.9 26.1 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.5 207
1970 26.5 26.6 27.0 27.1 27.0 26.5 25.9 25.9 26.2 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.5 203
1971 25.8 26.0 26.1 26.5 26.4 25.9 25.6 25.7 26.0 26.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 197
1972 25.8 26.3 26.3 26.6 26.6 26.1 25.8 25.7 25.9 26.3 26.5 26.5 26.2 201
1973 26.5 26.7 26.9 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.1 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.1 26.5 197
1974 25.8 26.0 26.3 26.6 26.5 26.1 25.8 25.8 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.0 26.1 197
1975 26.1 26.2 26.5 26.8 26.6 26.1 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.1 26.1 25.9 26.2 196
1976 25.9 26.0 26.4 26.3 26.2 25.6 25.2 25.2 25.3 26.1 26.3 26.2 25.9 141
1977 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.4 25.9 25.5 25.3 25.5 26.0 26.3 26.3 26.1 144
1978 26.3 26.4 26.8 26.7 26.7 25.9 25.6 25.4 25.6 25.9 26.1 26.2 26.1 147
1979 26.3 26.6 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.2 25.6 25.5 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.2 26.2 147
1980 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.1 25.7 25.6 25.8 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.3 146
1981 26.3 26.5 26.8 26.8 26.4 26.0 25.6 25.4 25.9 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.2 141
1982 26.5 26.5 26.7 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.9 26.3 26.4 26.1 110
1983 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.1 26.7 26.1 25.7 25.7 26.0 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.4 112
1984 26.2 26.5 26.7 26.9 26.6 26.0 25.6 25.6 25.8 26.1 26.4 26.3 26.2 113
1985 26.3 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.6 25.9 25.3 25.6 25.8 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.3 102
1986 26.5 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.6 26.0 25.7 25.6 25.8 26.2 26.5 26.3 26.3  78
1987 26.1 26.6 26.8 27.0 26.6 26.1 25.3 25.3 25.8 26.3 26.6 26.3 26.2  94
1988 26.8 26.9 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.5 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.1 25.9 26.4  92
1989 26.3 26.2 26.4 26.8 26.5 25.9 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.2 26.1 26.0 26.1  96
1990 26.4 26.8 26.9 27.0 26.7 26.1 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.9 26.3 26.4 26.3  95
1991 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.9 26.5 25.7 25.8 25.3 25.5 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.1 102
1992 26.2 26.4 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.2 25.8 25.9 26.0 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.2  74
1993 26.3 26.1 26.6 26.8 26.7 25.9 26.0 25.6 25.7 25.9 26.4 26.5 26.2  71
1994 26.5 26.7 27.1 26.9 26.6 25.9 25.5 25.6 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.2  71
1995 26.3 26.3 26.7 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.2 26.2 25.8 26.1 26.2 26.0 26.3  76
1996 26.1 26.2 27.0 26.8 26.3 25.8 26.0 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.3 26.2 26.2  81
1997 25.8 26.4 26.7 27.1 26.9 26.3 25.8 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.5 26.8 26.4  81
1998 26.9 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.6 26.8 26.2 26.3 26.1 26.9 26.6 26.6 26.9  71
1999 26.5 26.5 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.2 26.0 25.6 25.7 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.3  71
2000 26.3 26.8 26.8 27.0 26.6 26.2 25.3 25.5 26.3 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.3  75
2001 26.7 26.6 27.1 27.2 26.7 26.3 26.0 26.1 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.5  72
2002 26.5 26.6 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.2 26.1 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.6  71
2003 26.4 26.9 27.0 27.4 27.2 26.1 26.1 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.5  72
2004 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.4 27.0 26.5 25.9 26.1 25.9 26.2 26.5 26.6 26.6  78
2005 27.0 27.0 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.1 26.0 26.2 26.5 26.8 26.4 26.7  73
2006 26.5 26.7 27.2 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.9 26.1 26.7 26.8 26.5  75
2007 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.2 26.7 26.3 26.1 26.2 26.7 26.4 26.4 26.6  78
2008 26.3 26.2 26.5 26.8 26.5 26.4 25.7 25.8 26.3 26.5 26.8 26.6 26.4  86
     26.2 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.7 26.2 25.7 25.7 25.9 26.2 26.3 26.2 26.2
     26.2 26.3 26.7 26.9 26.7 26.2 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.2
 
For Country Codes 502 503 504 505 506 508 509 51 52 53 54
[chiefio@tubularbells analysis]$ 

There is a bit of cyclical ripple, but even that is muted. What are those “Country Codes” at the bottom? Those are the places that were selected. The selection criteria allow 51 to select for any country with a country code starting with 51. So everthing from 510 to 519 will match.

Australia, 501, and New Zealand, 507, are excluded. The rest or the large spaces with 50x numbers are:

502  New Hebrides / Tuvalu / Samoa area
503  Indonesia
504  Gilbert Ilands? ( 155 E to 171 W at the equator)
505  Malasia
506  Nauru (Kiribati? I wish folks who stop changing names...)
508  Papua New Guinea
509  Philippines
51x - 54x are various chunks of islands scattered across the Pacific basin.

There is nothing numbered above 54x in the record, so this list is
exhaustive for the Pacific Region.

Here is a graph with Australia removed, but New Zealand left in. If I’m very lucky, someone will turn the above chart into an equivalent graph so we can “A/B” the two curves and see exactly what New Zealand does to the Region Average.

One of the first cuts was to just leave out Australia. It looks like this:

Pacific Basin - Ex- Australia Thermometer # and temps vs time

Pacific Basin - Ex- Australia; Thermometer Count and Temps

I would expect the removal of New Zealand to make an even flatter graph.

WIth such flat temperatures, were any thermometers moved?

Here is the “thermometers by latitude” decades chart for the same islands part of “Region 5” for comparison.

       Year SP -25   -20   -15   -10    -5     5    10    15    20   -NP
DecPct: 1839   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1869   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  80.0  20.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1879   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  76.9  23.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1889   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  41.7  14.6  20.8  14.6   8.3   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1899   0.0   0.0   0.0  14.5  29.0  13.0   8.7  26.1   8.7   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1909   0.0   7.8   0.0  11.1  30.0  11.1   5.6  26.7   7.8   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1919   3.7  14.9   0.0   7.5  22.4  14.2   7.5  22.4   7.5   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1929   2.6  10.5   9.5  10.0  15.8  12.6  13.2  20.5   5.3   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1939   3.2   5.8  13.0  10.1  15.6  16.2  21.7  11.6   2.9   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1949   7.1   9.2  20.3   8.0  17.7  13.7  12.3   8.5   2.8   0.2 100.0
DecPct: 1959   2.6   6.4  10.6   7.1  14.4  15.8  17.5  16.2   8.4   1.0 100.0
DecPct: 1969   2.1   4.9   7.0   6.5  22.8  25.5  13.3  11.7   5.7   0.5 100.0
DecPct: 1979   2.6   6.5   8.6   8.9  17.7  22.5  14.7  11.6   5.9   0.9 100.0
DecPct: 1989   3.1   7.9   9.5  10.6  19.1  20.4  14.8   8.0   5.3   1.2 100.0
DecPct: 1999   2.8   9.4  10.4   8.3  12.4  19.2  20.3   7.8   8.1   1.3 100.0
DecPct: 2009   2.6   7.5   8.1   7.9  13.2  24.8  20.2   6.1   9.0   0.6 100.0
 
For COUNTRY CODEs: 502 503 504 505 506 508 509 51 52 53 54
 

Oddly enough, we see significant erosion from both poleward directions toward the middle. (Though in fairness, some of the northern “wobble” in the 20N band is the WWII dropout that eventually recovers.) Most of these bands are 5 degrees wide, but the one from 5 South to 5 North is 10 degrees, 5 on each side of the equator. This is a band of constant type, so I mixed the two together. We can see that the 15 N band erodes into the 10 N band and that the entire southern half erodes in favor of the equator. With a big step function in the 1990’s in the 10 S and 5 S bands. One can only wonder what the temperature of the Pacific would be if the islands did not have Thermometer Polarphobia… Though in an odd twist, the 20 N band actually grows; picking up the losses from the 20 S and 15 S bands for no net change.

Looking at the individual years report, we can clearly see the dropout of northern islands during WWII:

       Year SP -25   -20   -15   -10    -5     5    10    15    20   -NP
DecPct: 1939   3.2   5.8  13.0  10.1  15.6  16.2  21.7  11.6   2.9   0.0 100.0
 
LATpct: 1940   6.4   4.3  14.9   8.5  17.0  23.4  14.9   8.5   2.1   0.0 100.0
LATpct: 1941   7.0   7.0  16.3   9.3  18.6  23.3  18.6   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
LATpct: 1942  10.7  10.7  28.6  10.7  25.0   3.6  10.7   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
LATpct: 1943  11.1  14.8  29.6  11.1  18.5   3.7  11.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
LATpct: 1944  11.5  15.4  30.8  11.5  26.9   3.8   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
LATpct: 1945  10.3  13.8  27.6  10.3  24.1   3.4   0.0  10.3   0.0   0.0 100.0
LATpct: 1946   8.1  10.8  21.6   5.4  16.2   8.1  13.5  13.5   2.7   0.0 100.0
LATpct: 1947   6.8   9.1  20.5   6.8  13.6  13.6  11.4  13.6   4.5   0.0 100.0
LATpct: 1948   5.6   9.3  20.4   5.6  13.0  16.7  14.8  11.1   3.7   0.0 100.0
LATpct: 1949   3.4   6.8  13.6   6.8  15.9  17.0  14.8  13.6   6.8   1.1 100.0
 
DecPct: 1949   7.1   9.2  20.3   8.0  17.7  13.7  12.3   8.5   2.8   0.2 100.0
 

Though far more odd are the dancing thermometers of the 1990’s into 2009 where we see the percentages skittering back and forth. I would suspect that a small absolute number of thermometers is causing large percentage changes as individual instruments enter and leave the record. This, IMHO, calls further into question the GHCN decision to cut the thermometers used to just a few hundred per continent. (At least, I presume it was a decision and not an accident… but I could be wrong.)

LATpct: 1988   3.2   9.2  10.1   9.2  16.1  18.4  17.5   8.3   6.5   1.4 100.0
LATpct: 1989   3.1   8.9   9.8   9.8  15.6  20.1  17.0   8.0   6.2   1.3 100.0
 
DecPct: 1989   3.1   7.9   9.5  10.6  19.1  20.4  14.8   8.0   5.3   1.2 100.0
 
LATpct: 1990   3.2   9.0   9.9   9.5  16.2  19.4  17.1   8.1   6.3   1.4 100.0
LATpct: 1991   2.8   9.5  10.6   8.9  14.5  21.2  18.4   7.3   5.6   1.1 100.0
LATpct: 1992   3.4   9.1  10.2  10.2   8.0  13.6  25.0  10.2   9.1   1.1 100.0
LATpct: 1993   2.4   9.6  10.8   8.4   7.2  14.5  26.5   8.4  10.8   1.2 100.0
LATpct: 1994   2.7  10.8  12.2   8.1   8.1  16.2  21.6   8.1  10.8   1.4 100.0
LATpct: 1995   2.5  10.1  11.4   7.6  11.4  17.7  20.3   7.6  10.1   1.3 100.0
LATpct: 1996   2.4   9.6  10.8   7.2  13.3  20.5  19.3   7.2   8.4   1.2 100.0
LATpct: 1997   2.4   8.3   9.5   6.0  14.3  23.8  19.0   6.0   9.5   1.2 100.0
LATpct: 1998   2.7   9.6   9.6   8.2  11.0  20.5  21.9   6.8   8.2   1.4 100.0
LATpct: 1999   2.7   9.6   9.6   5.5  11.0  21.9  21.9   8.2   8.2   1.4 100.0
 
DecPct: 1999   2.8   9.4  10.4   8.3  12.4  19.2  20.3   7.8   8.1   1.3 100.0
 
LATpct: 2000   2.6   9.1   9.1   6.5  13.0  22.1  20.8   6.5   9.1   1.3 100.0
LATpct: 2001   2.7   8.1   8.1   8.1   9.5  24.3  21.6   6.8   9.5   1.4 100.0
LATpct: 2002   2.7   8.2   9.6   6.8   8.2  24.7  21.9   6.8   9.6   1.4 100.0
LATpct: 2003   2.7   8.1   6.8   6.8  12.2  24.3  21.6   6.8   9.5   1.4 100.0
LATpct: 2004   2.5   8.8   8.8   6.2  13.8  22.5  21.2   6.2   8.8   1.2 100.0
LATpct: 2005   2.7   8.2   9.6   9.6   9.6  24.7  20.5   5.5   9.6   0.0 100.0
LATpct: 2006   2.7   8.0   8.0   9.3  12.0  25.3  20.0   5.3   9.3   0.0 100.0
LATpct: 2007   2.6   6.4   7.7   9.0  14.1  25.6  19.2   6.4   9.0   0.0 100.0
LATpct: 2008   2.3   5.8   7.0   8.1  18.6  26.7  17.4   5.8   8.1   0.0 100.0
LATpct: 2009   2.4   4.8   7.1   8.3  19.0  27.4  17.9   4.8   8.3   0.0 100.0
 
DecPct: 2009   2.6   7.5   8.1   7.9  13.2  24.8  20.2   6.1   9.0   0.6 100.0
 
For COUNTRY CODEs: 502 503 504 505 506 508 509 51 52 53 54
[chiefio@tubularbells analysis]$ 

Though equally interesting: Country Codes in the 51 block. Here we can see a fairly large block of ocean being sampled. Yet the thermometers run all over the place. How much faith can be put in the average of thermometers from even one patch of ocean when the thermometer may one year be at 20 S Latitude, and be at 5 N the next?

[chiefio@tubularbells Lats]$ more Therm.by.lat51.Dec.LAT 
       Year SP -20   -15   -10    -5     0     5    10    15    20   -NP
DecPct: 1839   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1879   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1919   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1929   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1939   0.0   0.0   0.0  44.4   0.0  55.6   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1949   0.0   0.0   0.0  71.4   0.0  28.6   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1959  13.0  13.0   4.3  55.1   0.0  14.5   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1969   9.1   9.1  13.6  59.1   0.0   9.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1979   7.0   7.0  21.1  57.7   0.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1989   1.0   1.9  15.5  65.0   0.0  16.5   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1999   0.0   0.0   0.0  67.6   0.0  32.4   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 2009   0.0   0.0   0.0  52.4   0.0  47.6   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
 
For COUNTRY CODE: 51
[chiefio@tubularbells Lats]$ 

By 1999, everything below 10 S taken out and sunk, while things between the equator and 5 N gain.

51148694001 SINGAPORE           SINGAPORE    1.30  103.90   18   19U 2414FLxxCO 5A 1WATER           C   49
51148698000 SINGAPORE/CHA                    1.37  103.98   16    0U 2414FLxxCO 1A 4WATER           C   56
51291502000 TARO ISLAND                     -6.70  156.38    3    0R   -9FLxxCO 1x-9WATER           A    0
51291503000 MUNDA                           -8.33  157.27    6   12R   -9HIxxCO 1x-9WATER           A    0
51291507000 AUKI                            -8.78  160.73   11   78R   -9HIxxCO 1x-9WATER           A    0
51291517000 HONIARA                         -9.42  159.97   56    0S   14HIxxCO 1x-9WATER           C   12
51291520000 HONIARA/HENDE                   -9.42  160.05    9    0S   14HIxxCO 3A 6WATER           A    0
51291527000 KIRA KIRA                      -10.42  161.92    3    0R   -9HIxxCO 1A-9TROP. SEASONAL  A    0
51291541000 SANTA CRUZ                     -10.70  165.80   24    0R   -9HIxxCO 2x-9WATER           A    0
51791780000 VAVAU                          -18.65 -173.98   10    0R   -9HIxxCO 1x-9WATER           A   10
51791792001 NUKUALOFA TONGA ISLAND         -21.10 -175.20    2    0S   18FLxxCO 1x-9WATER           B   10
51891643000 FUNAFUTI                        -8.52  179.22    2    0R   -9FLxxCO 1A-9WATER           A    0
51891648000 NIULAKITA                      -10.75  179.50    3    0R   -9FLxxCO 1x-9WATER           A    0
[chiefio@tubularbells Lats]$ 

Does somebody not like Tonga? Was there a revolution I missed?

So the good news is that the temperatures are not going up. The bad news is that the thermometers are continuing to wander around the Pacific with a modest case of Polarphobia. And the worse (or better, depending on your reference point …) news is that the thermometer records seem to be far better at recording and demonstrating political actions, unrest, and wars; then they are at demonstration any warming trend.

Hawaii and Environs

Hawaii is part of the USA, so their temperatures were amalgamated into the US averages. I wondered if there was some way to split them out as a group? The answer is fairly simple. The same systematic numbering that lets you pick out a continent, or a country, lets you pick out parts of a country. For the Hawaiian Islands and some other Pacific Ocean bits, that code is 4259.

(I’ve done enough of these searches that I’ve started scripting bits of it. For example, the “inin” command just does a search of the v2.inv file for lines containing the selected text. In this case, the ^ says to find the start of line, then this part of a “country code” 425 with stations starting with 9. Looking in the v2.inv file.)

[chiefio@tubularbells Temps]$ inin ^42591
42591066000 MIDWAY ISLAND                   28.22 -177.37    3    0R   -9FLxxCO 1A-9WATER           B    0
42591155001 FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS  DETACHE  23.87 -166.28    2    0R   -9FLxxCO 1A-9WATER           A    0
42591162001 BARKING SANDS                   22.03 -159.78    4   34R   -9HIxxCO 1A-9WATER           A    0
42591165000 LIHUE, KAUAI,                   21.98 -159.35   45   86R   -9MVxxCO 1A-9WARM FOR./FIELD C   21
42591165001 LIHUE KAUAI                     22.00 -159.40   63   86R   -9MVxxCO 1A-9WARM FOR./FIELD C   15
42591176001 KANEOHE BAY/MCAS                21.45 -157.78    3    0S   37HIxxCO 1A 3WARM FIELD WOODSC   17
42591178001 HONOLULU OBS OAHU               21.30 -158.10    2   89U  836HIxxCO 1x-9WATER           C   25
42591178002 BARBERS POINT/NAS               21.32 -158.07   15  186U  836HIxxCO 1x-9WATER           C   22
42591182000 HONOLULU, OAH                   21.35 -157.93    5  240U  836HIxxCO 1A 1WARM FIELD WOODSC   70
42591186000 MOLOKAI, MOLO                   21.15 -157.10  137    0R   -9HIxxCO 5A-9WATER           A    0
42591186001 KUALAPUU, MOLOKAI               21.20 -157.00  268    0R   -9HIxxCO 2x-9WATER           A    0
42591189001 LANAI CITY LANAI                20.80 -156.90  494    0R   -9HIxxCO 6x-9WATER           A    0
42591189002 LAHAINA, MAUI HAWAII            20.90 -156.70   14   43R   -9MVxxCO 1x-9WATER           C   12
42591190000 KAHULUI AIRPO                   20.90 -156.43   20  155S   17HIxxCO 1A 3TROP. MONTANE   C   21
42591190001 PUUNENE/CAA AIRPORT 312         20.83 -156.47   40  348R   -9MVxxCO 3A-9TROP. MONTANE   B    0
42591196001 HANA, MAUI HAWAII               20.80 -156.00   37    0R   -9MVxxCO 1A-9WATER           A    0
42591285000 HILO/GEN. LYM                   19.72 -155.07   11   46S   38HIxxCO 2A 1WARM FOR./FIELD C   19
[chiefio@tubularbells Temps]$ inin ^4259
42591066000 MIDWAY ISLAND                   28.22 -177.37    3    0R   -9FLxxCO 1A-9WATER           B    0
42591155001 FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS  DETACHE  23.87 -166.28    2    0R   -9FLxxCO 1A-9WATER           A    0
42591162001 BARKING SANDS                   22.03 -159.78    4   34R   -9HIxxCO 1A-9WATER           A    0
42591165000 LIHUE, KAUAI,                   21.98 -159.35   45   86R   -9MVxxCO 1A-9WARM FOR./FIELD C   21
42591165001 LIHUE KAUAI                     22.00 -159.40   63   86R   -9MVxxCO 1A-9WARM FOR./FIELD C   15
42591176001 KANEOHE BAY/MCAS                21.45 -157.78    3    0S   37HIxxCO 1A 3WARM FIELD WOODSC   17
42591178001 HONOLULU OBS OAHU               21.30 -158.10    2   89U  836HIxxCO 1x-9WATER           C   25
42591178002 BARBERS POINT/NAS               21.32 -158.07   15  186U  836HIxxCO 1x-9WATER           C   22
42591182000 HONOLULU, OAH                   21.35 -157.93    5  240U  836HIxxCO 1A 1WARM FIELD WOODSC   70
42591186000 MOLOKAI, MOLO                   21.15 -157.10  137    0R   -9HIxxCO 5A-9WATER           A    0
42591186001 KUALAPUU, MOLOKAI               21.20 -157.00  268    0R   -9HIxxCO 2x-9WATER           A    0
42591189001 LANAI CITY LANAI                20.80 -156.90  494    0R   -9HIxxCO 6x-9WATER           A    0
42591189002 LAHAINA, MAUI HAWAII            20.90 -156.70   14   43R   -9MVxxCO 1x-9WATER           C   12
42591190000 KAHULUI AIRPO                   20.90 -156.43   20  155S   17HIxxCO 1A 3TROP. MONTANE   C   21
42591190001 PUUNENE/CAA AIRPORT 312         20.83 -156.47   40  348R   -9MVxxCO 3A-9TROP. MONTANE   B    0
42591196001 HANA, MAUI HAWAII               20.80 -156.00   37    0R   -9MVxxCO 1A-9WATER           A    0
42591285000 HILO/GEN. LYM                   19.72 -155.07   11   46S   38HIxxCO 2A 1WARM FOR./FIELD C   19
[chiefio@tubularbells Temps]$ cd ..

Ok, what does the temperature profile look like? For something almost as flat as a pancake, surprisingly interesting. We again start with a single thermometer. It is a smidgeon under 24C. We grow thermometers over time, then they get cut.

Temperatures are generally in the 22 C – 23 C range until… in the mid 1970’s we start to get a drift up to the 24 C range again. While I can’t say if this was the Jet Age warming the airports with development, or if it was the PDO flip that happened about then, but I can say it happened just before the thermometer counts change. It was not thermometer deletions that caused a problem, as effect can not precede cause. With that said, the temperature does seem to “step up” by about a degree at about that time. But then it proceeds to hold steady again in this new regime.

The thermometer count drops to an eventual 3, and despite a brief revisit of the 4 in 2008, by 2009 we are back to 3:

[chiefio@tubularbells analysis]$ grepmean ^4259 | grep 2009
4259116500002009 214 210 209 211 236 258-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999
4259118200002009 226 230 232 237 256 281-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999
4259128500002009 211 208 205 206 236 241-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999
[chiefio@tubularbells analysis]$

Three large airports full of jet traffic and tarmac. Hilo, Honolulu Oahu, Lihue (on Kauai). Wonder if there was a major build out of airports in the 70’s as Jet Air travel increased dramatically?… We also see something of a cyclical ripple, though 180 degrees out of phase with the mainland. While the 1930’s were hot in North America, they were cool in Hawaii. That PDO thesis looks good to me, perhaps with a bit of airport tarmac salt added.

What is quite clear is that this pattern is NOT what would be seen from CO2 as a climate driver. It dose not suddenly “switch on” by 1 C in 1980, then hold steady at that temperature for the next 30 years… And if the PDO flip has merit, we would expect to see a swap to the “cool side”, well, about now. In the chart below, we see a monthly profile in the last few years of 22.x C rising to 26.x C in mid year. Yet in the 2009 data above, we see the three records running substantially cooler than that…

Even more strange, the newest copy of the data has an odd new “hot spot” at

42591182000 HONOLULU, OAH

Snow-Book:~/Desktop chiefio$ grep ^4259 v2.mean | grep 2009
4259116500002009 214 210 209 211 236 258 261 259 261-9999-9999-9999
4259118200002009 226 230 232 237 256 281 277 275 281-9999-9999-9999
4259128500002009 211 208 205 206 236 241 244 245 239-9999-9999-9999
Snow-Book:~/Desktop chiefio$

That is a Very ODD jump to 28.1 C at Honolulu in June… I’d even go so far as to say that it was unprecedented, especially in the context of the two islands on each side being up to 4 C colder… but to do that I would have to look at the entire history of that thermometer record at Honolulu. (Wait for it…) Where I would see some 27’s from time to time, but nothing like this step function up. I think something needs a calibration check or a jet exhausted pointed the other way…

The entire record for that thermometer and modification history:

Snow-Book:~/Desktop chiefio$ grep ^425911820000 v2.mean
4259118200001883  217  218  221  241  247  252  252  262  253  252  232  219
4259118200001884  212  214  224  220  231  254  256  259  258  249  233  211
4259118200001885  208  219  222  214  232  254  259  257  261  248  241-9999
4259118200001886  211  222  221  232  235  247  254  255  263  259  238  221
4259118200001887  217  216  214  233  232  245  253  253  249  246  230  228
4259118200001888  214  204  212  232  236  252  259  257  258  259  243  234
4259118200001889  213  212  214  228  246  249  258  261  257  249  244  223
4259118200001890  220  223  217  233  241  251  254  253  258  249  232  224
4259118200001891  222  206  212  228  233  253  261  264  266  251  240  232
4259118200001892  207  228  226  237  241  251  256  260  262  249  237  219
4259118200001893  214  220  227  237  243  246  252  254  252  247  229  218
4259118200001894  217  213  217  226  237  244  247  249  252  242  232  219
4259118200001895  213  214  213  226  243  249  256  259  252  251  233  227
4259118200001896  220  220  211  231  240  242  256  261  259  251  247  231
4259118200001897  220  231  230  234  239  248  257  261  256  249  231  224
4259118200001898  224  209  211  219  233  242  250  253  252  248  240  217
4259118200001899  216  224  222  229  239  247  254  259  257  246  234  226
4259118200001900  216  214  224  229  242  258  262  266  264  251  236  222
4259118200001901  219  204  226  231  242  254  257  263  253  246  233  223
4259118200001902  217  210  217  222  232  246  256  261  253  244  230  216
4259118200001903  209  196-9999  222  236  244  255  256  254  241  233  226
4259118200001904  221  213  220  228  237  249  255  256  258  251  230  224
4259118200001905  196  208  213  219  229  240  248  252  249  243  237  221
4259118200001906  212  217  204  233  237  252  255  259  259  254  239  226
4259118200001907  223  226  214  221  241  252  255  256  259  249  236  234
4259118200001908  220  222  223  226  239  241  247  251  250  246  231  222
4259118200001909  214  208  209  222  233  243  243  248  249  243  236  223
4259118200001910  209  211  221  223  228  239  247  249  250  241  237  218
4259118200001911  211  210  219  229  235  241  247  256  249  240  237  224
4259118200001912  219  216  209  226  237  244  252  257  257  253  237  233
4259118200001913  221  213  223  227  238  246  257  262  259  254  239  224
4259118200001914  206  219  216  226  235  248  257  262  259  250  237  217
4259118200001915  213  208  219  226  247  254  258  264  261  251  235  229
4259118200001916  217  226  229  234  240  242  249  248  252  248  239  224
4259118200001917  214  212  222  230  240  249  252  259  258  251  238  230
4259118200001918  221  218  219  220  238  245  256  259  262  257  241  228
4259118200001919  217  224  221  234  239  252  253  262  256  254  244  230
4259118200001920  221  228  222  231  243  253  259  263  261  256  236  231
4259118200001921  217  229  223  234  243  257  257  258  256  247  236  226
4259118200001922  216  217  221  234  235  245  256  255  253  250  236  232
4259118200001923  219  211  219  230  240  247  254  257  261  255  242  226
4259118200001924  214  222  221  226  237  246  250  253  256  249  237  230
4259118200001925  226  227  223  223  234  246  251  259  256  251  240  232
4259118200001926  227  224  226  222  244  247  261  261  261  253  243  239
4259118200001927  228  226  228  230  241  252  251  257  258  254  243  224
4259118200001928  221  216  228  234  239  247  253  257  255  252  237  229
4259118200001929  216  220  227  236  241  252  262  261  263  257  235  222
4259118200001930  214  226  218  223  241  246  257  262  263  256  242  234
4259118200001931  224  223  224  224  238  253  254  259  254  253  239  217
4259118200001932  229  212  222  228  236  243  247  252  250  252  241  233
4259118200001933  224  219  218  222  232  238  241  244  247  242  228  232
4259118200001934  231  222  221  214  239  252  258  264  261  256  246  238
4259118200001935  218  220  221  225  243  252  256  258  256  253  240  237
4259118200001936  231  221  223  226  230  248  254  258  258  252  238  224
4259118200001937  217  213  216  232  236  248  252  253  254  253  242  232
4259118200001938  227  230  229  234  236  248  255  258  259  253  240  233
4259118200001939  226  228  226  224  235  241  249  254  250  248  233  228
4259118200001940  218  226  227  241  246  258  263  266  261  259  248  232
4259118200001941  229  217  221  237  238  253  259  264  267  254  243  227
4259118200001942  221  222  211  222  246  252  258  262  261  256  250  242
4259118200001943  228  223  220  238  244  256  259  259  261  256  244  234
4259118200001944  229  219  224  238  241  247  254  254  256  247  242  227
4259118200001945  225  230  232  233  248  257  259  261  256  256  246  231
4259118200001946  228  229  230  228  240  252  256  261  260  251  237  223
4259118200001947  212  220  225  234  236  252  256  260  259  257  244  228
4259118200001948  213  217  229  233  247  257  261  266  264  253  239  226
4259118200001949  213  221  224  229  241  249  254  258  259  252  234  232
4259118200001950  224  235  232  232  244  251  256  261  259  258  241  222
4259118200001951  228  223  226  236  247  254  264  265  265  259  249  234
4259118200001952  226  227  227  229  232  247  256  262  258  251  245  232
4259118200001953  225  229  232  238  249  254  257  263  260  253  240  227
4259118200001954  221  228  219  237  239  257  257  264  263  256  249  228
4259118200001955  225  214  214  234  238  243  249  249  250  244  238  231
4259118200001956  229  223  232  233  243  248  258  263  264  255  241  234
4259118200001957  226  214  221  228  243  258  264  264  266  262  252  233
4259118200001958  220  225  217  232  239  254  256  263  265  252  237  222
4259118200001959  225  222  240  236  248  261  266  267  272  260  249  235
4259118200001960  227  224  232  238  251  262  266  269  266  263  249  236
4259118200001961  231  237  243  244  256  258  262  269  266  262  246  239
4259118200001962  237  224  229  247  251  259  262  267  262  251  253  226
4259118200001963  217  223  224  241  247  262  271  275  272  265  251  233
4259118200001964  239  237  237  243  247  255  263  269  268  257  247  238
4259118200001965  222  210  223  239  250  262  266  265  267  257  251  229
4259118200001966  226  222  240  239  251  270  271  278  280  272  251  237
4259118200001967  225  233  232  237  257  265  275  278  280  270  253  233
4259118200001968  228  230  238  248  258  269  275  283  278  270  260  226
4259118200001969  206  233  231  237  248  262  272  284  278  269  259  247
4259118200001970  234  229  249  257  269  273  279-9999  261  258  243  237
4259118200001971  221  236  233  242  246  252  261  264  262  256  243  229
4259118200001972  213  214  227  239  252  261  269  273  269  263  248  220
4259118200001973  227  226  245  242  251  262  269  273  272  263  250  232
4259118200001974  236  236  233  252  257  263  266  273  267  264  243  243
4259118200001975  224  227  228  236  243  256  261  267  263  262  251  228
4259118200001976  232  222  231  239  253  257  266  271  271  262  241  241
4259118200001977  232  242  246  246  253  264  272  279  276  273  259  239
4259118200001978  234  229  243  249  257  259  261  269  269  254  237  224
4259118200001979  211  223  227  238  256  267  272  269  273  272  252  241
4259118200001980  222  224  239  245  257  264  272  272  276  267  256  236
4259118200001981  229  231  237  244  252  270  265  267  271  257  248  233
4259118200001982  229  221  233  241  257  264  270  275  275  263  243  223
4259118200001983  222  218  231  237  243  261  265  280  280  273-9999  239
4259118200001984  237  237  243  250  260  263  272  276  274  268  261  234
4259118200001985  219  233  236  236  247  262  276  277  273  265  239  229
4259118200001986  227  226  248  253  257  267  275  283  278  270  262  239
4259118200001987  230  218  233  245  243  269  278  282  283  274  260  243
4259118200001988  228  238  245  251  261  271  276  279  278  267  266  242
4259118200001989  236  231  240  236  258  272  275  275  277  259  248  227
4259118200001990  237  219  228  248  256  266  271  280  279  272  252  234
4259118200001991  224  230  227  244  255  263  273  280  275  267  264  246
4259118200001992  227  229  239  243  254  274  275  279  274  263  250  249
4259118200001993  217  218  233  252  252  268  270  274  273  265  246  239
4259118200001994  223  232  229  244  263  272  281  292  289-9999  273  247
4259118200001995  236  228  242  248  259  275  286  286  284-9999  267  262
4259118200001996  245  233  236  264  262  275  278  284  272  275  250  228
4259118200001997  222  236  242  248  245  272  275  281  281  270  245  233
4259118200001998  225  228  239  239  247  256  264  273  272  264  253  239
4259118200001999  231  231  239  242  250  258  264  270  267  258  250  234
4259118200002000  228  231  242  239  256  267  273  275  270-9999  253  236
4259118200002001  242  236  239  247  256  267  275  281  278  267  253  248
4259118200002002  234  228  234  250  256  273-9999  278  275  267  253  241
4259118200002003  225  233  245  253  261  270  281  284  278  273  261  245
4259118200002004  234  245  239  253  261  273  281  282  282  275  253  241
4259118200002005  227  232  234  259  274  282  284  287  274  259  250  230
4259118200002006  235  223  231  238  240  267  271  273  267  262  257  245
4259118200002007  238  231  235  248  258  270  275  278  275  268  249  242
4259118200002008  231  238  251  252  262  269  279  276  269  265  252  240
4259118200002009  226  230  232  237  256  281  277  275  281-9999-9999-9999
Snow-Book:~/Desktop chiefio$ 

Hmmm… Unprecedented. (Though there were some 28.x in later months in some years. Typically in the August European vacation month and the September last vacation prior to school starting window. And it comes in batches. I suspect the thermometer is acting as a tourism gage… )

OK, knowing that we probably have an issue with the thermometer at the ocean of tarmac that is THE major airport in the middle of the North Pacific, what does the temperature averages history look like?

Look at ./Temps/Temps.4259.yrs.GAT (Y/N)? y
 
Thermometer Records, Average of Monthly Data and Yearly Average
by Year Across Month, with a count of thermometer records in that year 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
YEAR  JAN  FEB  MAR  APR  MAY  JUN JULY  AUG SEPT  OCT  NOV  DEC  YR COUNT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
1883 21.7 21.8 22.1 24.1 24.7 25.2 25.2 26.2 25.3 25.2 23.2 21.9 23.9   1
1884 21.2 21.4 22.4 22.0 23.1 25.4 25.6 25.9 25.8 24.9 23.3 21.1 23.5   1
1885 20.8 21.9 22.2 21.4 23.2 25.4 25.9 25.7 26.1 24.8 24.1-99.0 23.8   1
1886 21.1 22.2 22.1 23.2 23.5 24.7 25.4 25.5 26.3 25.9 23.8 22.1 23.8   1
1887 21.7 21.6 21.4 23.3 23.2 24.5 25.3 25.3 24.9 24.6 23.0 22.8 23.5   1
1888 21.4 20.4 21.2 23.2 23.6 25.2 25.9 25.7 25.8 25.9 24.3 23.4 23.8   1
1889 21.3 21.2 21.4 22.8 24.6 24.9 25.8 26.1 25.7 24.9 24.4 22.3 23.8   1
1890 22.0 22.3 21.7 23.3 24.1 25.1 25.4 25.3 25.8 24.9 23.2 22.4 23.8   1
1891 22.2 20.6 21.2 22.8 23.3 25.3 26.1 26.4 26.6 25.1 24.0 23.2 23.9   1
1892 20.7 22.8 22.6 23.7 24.1 25.1 25.6 26.0 26.2 24.9 23.7 21.9 23.9   1
1893 21.4 22.0 22.7 23.7 24.3 24.6 25.2 25.4 25.2 24.7 22.9 21.8 23.7   1
1894 21.7 21.3 21.7 22.6 23.7 24.4 24.7 24.9 25.2 24.2 23.2 21.9 23.3   1
1895 21.3 21.4 21.3 22.6 24.3 24.9 25.6 25.9 25.2 25.1 23.3 22.7 23.6   1
1896 22.0 22.0 21.1 23.1 24.0 24.2 25.6 26.1 25.9 25.1 24.7 23.1 23.9   1
1897 22.0 23.1 23.0 23.4 23.9 24.8 25.7 26.1 25.6 24.9 23.1 22.4 24.0   1
1898 22.4 20.9 21.1 21.9 23.3 24.2 25.0 25.3 25.2 24.8 24.0 21.7 23.3   1
1899 21.6 22.4 22.2 22.9 23.9 24.7 25.4 25.9 25.7 24.6 23.4 22.6 23.8   1
1900 21.6 21.4 22.4 22.9 24.2 25.8 26.2 26.6 26.4 25.1 23.6 22.2 24.0   1
1901 21.9 20.4 22.6 23.1 24.2 25.4 25.7 26.3 25.3 24.6 23.3 22.3 23.8   1
1902 21.7 21.0 21.7 22.2 23.2 24.6 25.6 26.1 25.3 24.4 23.0 21.6 23.4   1
1903 20.9 19.6-99.0 22.2 23.6 24.4 25.5 25.6 25.4 24.1 23.3 22.6 23.4   1
1904 22.1 21.3 22.0 22.8 23.7 24.9 25.5 25.6 25.8 25.1 23.0 22.4 23.7   1
1905 19.7 20.4 21.3 21.9 22.7 23.6 24.3 24.8 24.3 24.0 23.1 21.6 22.6   4
1906 20.8 21.1 20.1 22.6 23.3 24.7 25.0 25.3 25.3 24.9 23.4 22.1 23.2   5
1907 21.7 21.7 20.9 21.4 23.5 24.5 24.8 24.8 25.1 24.1 22.9 22.4 23.2   6
1908 21.2 21.1 22.0 22.2 23.3 23.6 24.3 24.6 24.3 23.5 22.4 21.5 22.8   6
1909 20.8 20.3 20.5 21.7 22.8 23.9 23.9 24.3 24.5 24.0 23.2 22.1 22.7   6
1910 20.6 20.5 21.5 21.8 22.4 23.3 24.2 24.6 24.7 24.0 23.4 21.3 22.7   6
1911 20.6 20.6 21.3 22.3 23.0 23.9 24.7 25.3 24.6 23.7 23.1 22.0 22.9   6
1912 21.3 21.1 20.4 22.1 23.1 23.9 24.6 25.2 25.3 24.6 22.9 23.1 23.1   6
1913 21.5 20.7 21.4 22.3 23.0 24.0 25.0 25.4 25.0 24.6 23.2 22.0 23.2   6
1914 20.3 21.3 21.2 22.0 22.9 24.1 24.8 25.4 25.2 24.5 23.3 21.3 23.0   6
1915 20.8 20.2 21.8 22.2 24.4 24.8 25.2 25.7 25.3 24.3 23.0 22.2 23.3   6
1916 21.8 21.2 22.0 22.6 23.5 23.9 24.1 24.3 24.6 23.6 23.0 21.8 23.0   6
1917 21.0 20.7 21.5 22.3 23.5 24.3 24.6 24.9 24.7 24.3 23.4 22.6 23.1   6
1918 21.6 21.3 21.1 21.4 22.9 23.8 25.0 25.3 25.3 25.0 23.5 22.0 23.2   6
1919 20.8 21.4 21.5 22.7 23.1 24.4 24.7 25.4 24.8 24.5 23.5 22.3 23.3   6
1920 21.4 21.9 21.6 22.4 23.8 24.5 25.1 25.5 25.2 24.4 22.8 22.5 23.4   6
1921 21.1 21.6 21.3 22.3 23.1 24.6 24.8 24.9 24.7 23.7 22.6 21.6 23.0   7
1922 20.7 20.4 21.0 22.1 22.7 23.8 24.9 24.9 24.7 24.1 22.5 21.9 22.8   7
1923 20.9 20.0 20.6 21.8 22.9 23.8 24.6 25.0 25.1 24.5 22.9 21.5 22.8   7
1924 20.1 21.2 21.0 21.6 22.5 23.6 24.4 24.7 25.0 24.0 22.6 21.8 22.7   7
1925 21.4 21.4 21.2 21.4 22.8 24.5 24.9 25.2 24.8 24.3 23.0 21.7 23.1   7
1926 21.1 20.9 21.5 21.3 23.7 24.0 25.2 25.4 25.6 24.6 23.5 22.6 23.3   7
1927 21.5 21.3 21.8 22.2 23.0 24.6 24.9 25.2 25.1 24.7 23.6 21.7 23.3   7
1928 21.3 20.6 21.9 22.5 23.1 24.1 24.7 25.2 24.9 24.4 22.9 21.9 23.1   7
1929 20.6 21.0 21.7 22.5 23.4 24.5 25.4 25.5 25.6 24.9 22.5 21.0 23.2   7
1930 20.3 21.5 20.8 21.2 22.9 23.9 24.7 25.5 25.3 24.2 23.0 22.1 22.9   8
1931 21.4 21.4 21.7 21.5 22.8 24.3 24.7 25.2 24.7 24.2 22.6 20.7 22.9   8
1932 21.5 20.5 21.1 22.0 22.7 23.6 24.1 24.5 24.4 24.2 22.9 21.8 22.8   8
1933 21.0 20.7 20.7 21.1 22.2 23.0 23.4 23.5 23.9 23.3 21.6 22.3 22.2   8
1934 21.4 20.8 21.2 20.5 23.0 24.3 24.8 25.7 25.6 24.5 23.5 22.5 23.1   8
1935 20.8 20.6 21.0 21.5 23.3 24.2 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.1 23.0 22.3 23.0   8
1936 21.7 21.2 21.0 21.5 22.2 24.2 24.7 25.0 24.9 24.3 22.4 21.3 22.9   8
1937 20.5 20.3 20.9 22.3 22.9 24.2 24.6 24.8 24.8 24.7 23.3 22.1 23.0   8
1938 21.5 22.0 21.9 22.3 22.9 24.1 24.9 25.2 24.9 24.5 23.0 22.3 23.3   8
1939 21.7 21.8 21.6 21.7 22.7 23.4 24.2 24.6 24.2 23.8 22.5 21.5 22.8   8
1940 20.8 21.3 21.3 23.3 23.4 24.6 25.3 25.4 25.1 24.8 23.5 22.0 23.4   8
1941 22.0 20.9 21.2 22.6 22.8 24.3 24.8 25.5 25.5 24.3 23.0 21.5 23.2   7
1942 21.2 21.4 20.1 21.3 23.4 23.8 24.5 24.8 25.1 24.7 24.1 23.3 23.1   8
1943 22.0 21.4 21.1 22.9 23.7 24.6 25.1 25.0 25.0 24.5 23.3 22.5 23.4   8
1944 21.9 21.3 21.9 22.8 23.1 23.9 24.5 24.5 24.5 23.9 23.1 21.8 23.1   8
1945 21.8 22.3 22.5 22.6 23.9 24.8 25.0 25.2 24.8 24.6 23.9 22.2 23.6   9
1946 21.4 21.6 21.9 22.0 23.0 24.4 24.8 25.3 25.1 24.3 23.0 21.5 23.2  10
1947 20.1 20.9 21.3 22.2 22.7 24.3 24.5 25.0 24.7 24.6 23.3 21.7 22.9   9
1948 20.3 20.5 21.2 21.9 23.0 24.0 24.6 25.0 24.9 24.1 22.9 21.6 22.8  10
1949 20.4 20.8 20.9 21.5 22.6 23.7 24.2 24.5 24.4 23.9 22.3 21.8 22.6  12
1950 21.3 21.9 21.6 22.0 22.9 23.6 24.3 24.8 25.0 24.8 23.0 21.2 23.0  12
1951 21.6 21.2 21.7 22.2 23.3 24.1 25.2 25.2 25.1 24.7 23.4 22.1 23.3  13
1952 21.2 21.3 21.6 21.7 22.3 23.7 24.4 25.0 24.7 24.0 23.4 22.2 23.0  15
1953 21.4 21.5 21.6 22.4 23.5 24.2 24.9 25.2 24.9 24.3 23.1 21.6 23.2  15
1954 20.9 21.4 20.7 22.3 22.7 24.6 24.8 25.5 25.3 24.6 23.8 21.8 23.2  16
1955 21.2 20.6 20.4 21.9 22.8 23.5 23.9 24.1 24.1 23.6 22.7 21.9 22.6  15
1956 21.7 21.0 21.7 21.9 23.0 24.0 24.6 25.1 25.2 24.6 23.0 22.2 23.2  14
1957 21.2 20.3 20.9 21.7 23.0 24.6 25.4 25.4 25.4 24.7 23.7 22.3 23.2  15
1958 21.0 21.1 20.7 22.0 22.9 24.3 24.8 25.6 25.7 24.5 22.9 21.4 23.1  14
1959 21.2 20.7 22.3 21.9 23.1 24.8 25.4 25.8 25.7 24.6 23.4 22.2 23.4  14
1960 21.3 20.9 21.5 22.3 23.9 24.9 25.4 25.9 25.6 24.8 23.4 22.0 23.5  14
1961 21.5 22.2 22.4 23.0 23.8 24.7 25.2 25.7 25.5 24.9 23.5 22.5 23.7  14
1962 21.9 21.0 21.5 22.9 23.6 24.5 25.0 25.6 25.3 24.3 23.9 21.7 23.4  14
1963 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.8 23.4 24.7 25.3 25.9 25.9 25.2 23.8 22.3 23.7  14
1964 22.4 21.9 22.1 22.3 23.2 24.7 25.2 25.3 25.4 24.3 23.4 22.4 23.5  13
1965 21.1 19.8 20.6 22.0 23.2 24.4 25.1 25.5 25.4 24.4 23.2 21.2 23.0  12
1966 20.9 20.3 21.6 21.7 23.2 24.8 25.4 25.8 25.9 25.0 23.6 22.5 23.4  12
1967 21.4 21.7 21.4 22.4 24.0 25.0 25.8 26.0 26.2 25.6 24.1 22.0 23.8  12
1968 21.5 21.1 21.7 22.5 23.8 25.3 26.0 26.5 26.1 25.2 24.1 21.9 23.8  14
1969 19.9 21.5 21.6 22.4 23.9 24.9 25.8 25.9 25.5 24.7 23.7 22.4 23.5  14
1970 21.5 21.1 22.2 23.1 24.1 25.3 25.7 25.8 25.4 25.0 23.6 23.0 23.8  14
1971 20.7 22.3 22.1 23.0 23.7 24.5 25.3 25.6 25.5 24.7 23.7 21.7 23.6  13
1972 20.5 20.6 21.6 22.1 23.6 24.5 25.2 25.9 25.7 24.9 23.4 21.2 23.3  13
1973 21.3 20.9 22.9 22.5 23.4 24.5 25.5 25.8 25.7 24.8 23.9 22.4 23.6  13
1974 22.5 22.6 22.2 23.6 23.9 24.9 25.4 26.0 25.9 25.3 23.8 23.2 24.1  13
1975 21.6 21.4 21.6 22.5 23.1 24.3 25.0 25.3 25.0 24.8 23.8 22.2 23.4  13
1976 21.7 21.2 21.6 22.4 23.6 24.2 25.0 25.8 25.6 25.0 23.1 22.7 23.5  13
1977 21.9 22.1 22.4 22.7 23.7 24.9 25.6 26.2 26.0 25.6 24.1 22.7 24.0  12
1978 21.7 21.9 22.7 23.4 24.3 25.2 25.8 26.2 26.1 25.0 23.4 22.2 24.0  12
1979 21.1 21.4 21.8 22.8 24.0 25.0 25.6 26.0 26.4 26.0 23.9 23.1 23.9  12
1980 21.6 21.8 22.8 23.4 24.7 25.4 26.2 25.9 26.3 25.5 24.6 23.1 24.3  12
1981 22.5 22.3 22.9 23.6 24.5 26.1 26.2 26.5 26.5 25.2 24.2 22.8 24.4   8
1982 22.2 22.4 22.4 23.2 24.4 25.6 26.4 26.8 26.6 25.5 24.2 22.2 24.3   8
1983 21.8 21.8 22.5 23.0 23.7 25.4 25.7 26.3 26.1 25.6 24.3 23.1 24.1   8
1984 23.1 23.0 23.9 24.4 25.2 25.7 26.2 26.5 26.5 26.2 25.3 23.0 24.9   8
1985 21.7 22.6 22.4 22.5 23.6 25.1 26.2 26.4 26.0 25.3 23.3 22.4 24.0   8
1986 21.9 22.2 23.4 24.0 24.6 25.7 26.6 27.1 26.8 25.9 24.9 23.1 24.7   8
1987 22.2 21.4 22.2 23.0 23.0 25.3 26.5 26.9 26.9 26.1 24.8 23.6 24.3   8
1988 22.5 22.9 23.3 23.9 24.9 25.8 26.3 26.4 26.6 25.9 25.4 23.7 24.8   8
1989 22.8 22.2 23.1 22.5 24.2 25.6 26.0 26.0 26.1 25.1 23.8 22.0 24.1   8
1990 22.7 21.3 22.1 23.5 24.1 25.4 25.8 26.6 26.8 26.0 24.3 22.7 24.3   8
1991 21.8 22.3 22.1 23.5 24.5 25.3 26.2 26.7 26.6 26.0 25.6 24.0 24.6   8
1992 22.4 22.2 23.0 23.6 24.6 26.1 26.3 26.8 26.7 25.8 24.5 24.1 24.7   7
1993 21.6 21.5 22.6 24.3 24.3 25.8 26.1 26.6 26.6 25.7 24.1 23.3 24.4   7
1994 21.8 22.8 22.6 23.6 25.0 25.9 26.9 27.4 27.2 26.2 25.4 23.7 24.9   7
1995 22.8 22.6 23.6 23.5 24.4 25.8 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.1 25.1 24.2 24.8   7
1996 23.0 21.9 21.9 24.4 25.1 26.3 26.7 26.8 26.4 26.4 24.5 22.6 24.7   7
1997 21.9 23.0 23.4 23.6 23.7 25.9 26.2 26.6 26.7 26.0 23.8 22.6 24.4   7
1998 21.7 21.9 23.0 23.0 23.5 24.6 25.3 25.7 25.8 25.1 24.5 22.6 23.9   7
1999 22.1 22.0 22.8 23.1 24.2 24.6 25.1 25.6 25.4 24.6 23.9 22.7 23.8   7
2000 21.5 22.2 23.2 22.8 24.4 25.6 25.9 26.1 25.8 25.8 24.3 22.8 24.2   5
2001 23.1 22.4 22.8 23.5 24.1 25.1 26.0 26.4 26.3 25.4 24.4 23.4 24.4   6
2002 22.5 21.6 22.3 23.7 24.5 25.7 26.0 26.3 26.0 25.6 24.3 23.2 24.3   6
2003 22.1 22.4 23.4 23.9 24.8 25.9 26.5 26.9 26.4 26.0 24.6 23.2 24.7   6
2004 22.6 23.3 22.8 23.7 25.0 26.0 26.6 26.8 26.8 26.1 24.5 23.2 24.8   4
2005 22.4 22.6 22.7 24.4 25.8 26.2 26.7 26.7 26.5 25.1 24.3 23.1 24.7   3
2006 23.4 22.0 22.7 23.1 23.4 25.5 25.9 25.9 25.6 25.3 24.9 23.5 24.3   3
2007 22.9 22.2 23.1 23.7 24.9 25.8 26.3 26.6 26.3 25.6 24.3 23.5 24.6   3
2008 22.1 22.8 23.9 23.8 24.7 25.4 26.3 26.4 25.5 25.1 23.8 22.9 24.4   4
     21.5 21.4 21.8 22.5 23.5 24.7 25.3 25.6 25.5 24.8 23.6 22.3 23.5
     21.5 21.5 21.8 22.6 23.6 24.7 25.3 25.6 25.5 24.8 23.6 22.3 23.6
 
For Country Code 4259

Well, from 1883 to 2008 the average has risen all the way from 23.9 to 24.4, even though the thermometer has moved from grass fields to one of the largest Jet Airports in the world surrounded by an ocean of asphalt, concrete, cars, trucks, and jet exhaust. Looks to me like nothing much going on with “Global Warming”, but a lot of economic growth. On the “someday” list would be to investigate exactly what did happen at those discontinuity points. And look up the Honolulu station on http://www.surfacstations.org and see what the quality is. And that curious inverse relationship with the land temperatures in the 1930s points at the possibility that the cyclicality we’ve seen before is a global oscillation with some places hot when others are cold (and we see it as a global “hot time” due solely to the very poor geographic coverage of thermometers during most of history.)

At first I thought: “Why do a ‘by latitude chart’, it’s Hawaii. East west Island chain. What could you possibly find?” When ever I think that kind of thing I try to remember the counter point. I forget who first whacked me upside the head with it, so I can not give decent attribution, though I wish I could. I’d like to think it was one of my High School teachers, like Mr. McGuire… but I can’t shake the notion that it was an old prospector next to a creek in the Sierra Nevada mountains (near where I grew up). At any rate, the phrase rattles around in my head at moments like that: “If you don’t look, you will never find anything.” Perhaps it was both of them. I remember 2 version, each would match a different character:

“Cain’t find any anythin if ya don’t go lookin!” and
“If you only look where you expect to find things, you will only find what you expect.”

And there is a faint echo of Mr. McGuire saying something like “Mr. Smith, in the laboratory we look and see what is there, we do not decide what will be there without looking.”

At any rate, there is this odd chorus of old voices that go off in my head when I think “Why look there, won’t be anything there to see..”

So I looked.

Here is the “by latitude” chart for Hawaii by 2 degree increments:

 
Look at ./Lats/Therm.by.lat4259.Dec.LAT (Y/N)? y
 
       Year SP  15    17    19    21    23    25    27    29    31   -NP
DecPct: 1889   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1899   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1909   0.0   0.0   0.0  19.0  81.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1919   0.0   0.0   0.0  28.6  71.4   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1929   0.0   0.0   0.0  25.3  63.3   0.0   0.0  11.4   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1939   0.0   0.0   0.0  33.3  55.6   0.0   0.0  11.1   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1949   0.0   0.0   0.0  40.0  54.3   0.0   0.0   5.7   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1959   0.0   0.0   0.0  34.0  49.3   3.7   0.0  13.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1969   0.0   0.0   0.0  30.9  48.4   3.9   0.0  16.8   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1979   0.0   0.0   0.0  31.4  50.9   0.4   0.0  17.3   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1989   0.0   0.0   0.0  30.3  61.8   0.0   0.0   7.9   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1999   0.0   0.0   0.0  31.2  66.7   0.0   0.0   2.2   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 2009   0.0   0.0   0.0  37.2  62.8   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
 
For COUNTRY CODE: 4259
 
Not at all what I'd expected.  First off, we see that the history is very sort.  Second we see that everything north of 23N has been deleted.  Midway is about 2500 km WNW of Hawaii (The Big Island) per my little 12 inch globe, at a higher latitude, and different ocean currents.  The chart at http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data/ when comparing Honolulu and Midway shows about a 2 C cooler Midway.  So I think I can now explain that sudden shift to hotter in about 1977.  We lost Midway and the other northern island stations.

So even in Hawaii we have had the thermometers showing Polarphobia and migrating toward the equator.  I can think of no rational basis for the removal of Midway (or any of the northern Hawaiian chain) from the record.  Ocean coverage is so spotty already that any additional coverage ought to be a Very Good Thing.

In Conclusion

I see no way to reconcile the steady temperatures of the Pacific Islands with their steady thermometer readings and any supposed runaway greenhouse scenario.

New Zealand temperature history is much more consistent with someone playing with the instruments, than with any warming trends.

And just how do you calibrate this composite instrument with all these comings, going, deletions, migrations, and instrument replacements and recalibration / recorrections? When wars, equipment change, and siting changes dominate the signal, just how do you propose to tease out of it that which is perhaps not even there?

I would not be willing to bet one cup of coffee on the direction of the 1/10 C place in any of these averages over a 1 year interval; and I place $5,000 bets on individual stocks every week with nary a squirm of discomfort. So it’s not like I’m uncomfortable with placing bets. It’s just that I don’t bet on truly random games (I want to know when the card count is in my favor before I bet) and I don’t bet when the guy in charge of the equipment has a stake in the outcome and is adjusting the wheel…

Frankly, there are just too many moving parts here to begin to know what the average of them all might mean.

But, with that said, the dead flat Islands “trend” can not result from CO2 induced warming. There just isn’t any. And if the Pacific is not warming, what’s happening at the Slot Machines in Australia and New Zealand has more to do with the technician adjusting them from the backside and the manager moving them around the Casino…

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
This entry was posted in NCDC - GHCN Issues and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink.

17 Responses to GHCN – New Zealand, Polynesian Polarphobia

  1. Ripper says:

    Crikey E.M. It just gets dodgier & dodgier.

    I would just about bet my left nut that if all the deletions in the 2000’s hadn’t happened that the record would in fact show that the world has cooled rapidly since 2007.

  2. Rob R says:

    Hi

    Re the 2009 list of 9 stations for NZ. Hokitika Aero is about 25 minutes drive away from home. With the Surfacestations project in mind I photographed the climate station from all angles about 1 year ago. I fly from there (Hokitika) to Christchurch a couple of times per year. The climate station is situated near the terminal and around 40 m from the runway so you get a good look at it every time you fly. In the last 12 months there has been substantial change to the immediate environment of the station (after my photography). A substantial area of low scrub (largely gorse) was cleared by backhoe from land about 15 to 30 m away from the station. Given that no climate equipment was shifted I expect that the change in immediate environment would not have been reported.

    This is just one small issue for one more-or-less rural site situated about 1 km from the Tasman Sea. I suspect small changes like this are rampant and undetected within the global dataset.

  3. Tony Hansen says:

    E.M.,
    I am at a loss for words wrt what you are doing. Please keep up the good work.
    Looking at the table of ‘Pacific Basin without Aus and NZ’, I can see an urgent need for one of those machines that goes ‘ping’. The patient is flat-lining.

  4. Dennis says:

    “Frankly, there are just too many moving parts here to begin to know what the average of them all might mean”

    I doubt that a more incisive statement has ever been written concerning the whole AGW hoopla.

  5. PeteA says:

    Here’s a thought. One could “re-instate” the deleted stations by using some fancy statistics to extrapolate the trends since the time they were removed using the patterns of those still in use. It wouldn’t be 100% accurate but it might give us a clue as to the real trend of land surface temperature across the world.

    REPLY: “That is sort of what GIStemp tries to do. The problem, IMHO, is that this is prone to error and is not a perfect solution; but it leads you to think that you have truth where there is none. You start to ‘suck your own exhaust’… So you end up with folks believing that the 1/100 C digit has some value to it, when the 1/10 C space is in fact a fabrication and / or statistical accident… I’ll go there eventually, but only after I’ve finished figuring out what the data are actually like and what manipulations that they actually will support. A cleaner approach, IMHO, to stabilizing the instrument is simply to elide any stations who stop reporting from a total average. A fancier approach would be to take each segment, profile it’s delta temp / delta time and then average those inside any times of overlap. You want average (dT/dt), not: d(average T)/ dt and yes, IMHO, it is that simple a FUBAR of where to place the parenthesis. Programmers run into that kind of stuff all the time and expect something like that to possibly be “the bug”.. -ems”

  6. John McLean says:

    This is interesting … kind of.

    The problems are
    (a) I can’t see any mention of sea temperatures despite ocean being really dominant in this part of the world.
    (b) the exclusion of Australia takes away almost 300 observation stations, which is probably a very high percentage of those in the region being discussed
    (c) I wouldn’t expect to see much warming in the Pacific, especially as I believe the global average temperature variation is a consequence of the Pacific’s bias towards El Nino since the Great Pacific Climate Shift of 1976. To put it simply it is the dispersion of tropical heat that drives global temperatures. Check a map of sea surface temperatures and you’ll find that it rarely gets much above 30C because at that temperature evaporation is high, leading to tropical clouds and heat transfer to the upper atmosphere.

    REPLY: ” It is a ‘real time science’ project. You get to watch learning and discovery happen in real time. Some like that, some don’t.

    (a): This is an analysis of GHCN, a land temperature series. By definition it does not include the sea. SST, is a future project, iff Hadley ever find their data and release it…

    (b) Australia is covered in another specific posting. Please see it. There we found that thermometer changes of location pollute the series with location noise. Since it dominates the total records for ‘Region 5’, this posting is to answer the question: What does the rest of Region 5 look like? In other words “This Behaviour Is By Design”.

    (c) If the Pacific is not warming, there is no ‘global warming’. You can not have a global phenomenon that leaves out 1/2 the globe… So you may well be right and that would confirm the conclusions here. -ems”

  7. rob r says:

    If you graph up the mean-temp column for the Pacific (minus Aust & NZ) the result is a “curve” from the most recent part that looks remarkably similar to the global mean satellite temp curve from 1978-2009 from UAH (Spencer & Christy et al)

  8. Bob D says:

    Just for interest, here is a plot of the NZ temperature history, with and without the Chathams, according to the data you posted above.

    Do you have a link to the raw station data for NZ? I’d love to analyze this a bit further.

    My apologies if you’ve posted it before – I had a quick scan through the recent Pacific posts but couldn’t find it.

    REPLY: “The raw data are a direct down load from GHCN, directions can be found under the GIStemp tab up top, after GIStemp STEP2 has added antarctica, merged USHCN, and done a longer version of Hohenpiesenberg. Since none of those involve New Zealand, the straight GHCN ought to be fine. See:

    ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/v2

    where v2.mean is the file in question

    -ems”

  9. Ripper says:

    Bob , I believe it is Cambell Island not the Chathams..

  10. rob r says:

    For the NZ data merging the Campbell Island-free data (1939 to present) with the early (pre 1939) portion of the full NZ data appears to reveal a temperature step-change of about 0.5 to 0.7 deg C at about 1940. This might be related to the thermometer count and location issue.

    Otherwise the overall trend appears to be two relatively flat segments, pre 1940 and post 1940. There is no hockeystick in sight here.

    By the way two individual monthly mean values appear to make little sense. These are July 1995 (3.0 and 2.8 in the two versions, compared to more typical values of 7 to 9 deg C) and October 1994 (-99.0 and 6.6 compared to typical values of 12 to 15 deg C)

    REPLY: ” The missing data flag is -99.0, so that month has no data. I’ll look at the other one and put an update here shortly. -ems”

    REPLY2: “The 1994 data has a lot of dropouts. That 6.6 is the result of averaging one data point with itself. See:

    [chiefio@tubularbells Temps]$ grep 1994 Temps.507
    5079301200001994 196 194 174 161 147 119 112 108 117 128-9999 182
    5079329200001994 204 185 155 137 128 96 87 96 105 125-9999 186
    5079330900001994 180 187 154 140 130 99 93 101 106 120-9999 155
    5079361500001994 155 165 141 119 97 67 63 77 84 98-9999 139
    5079378000031994 173 168 135 119 92 56 57-9999-9999 105-9999 159
    5079384400041994 141 146 119 113 80 49 53 55 41 91-9999 121
    5079394500051994 97 95 86 74 64 44 50-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999
    5079394500071994 97 95 86 74 64 44 50-9999 82 58 66 80
    5079394700081994-9999-9999-9999 74 64 44 50 55 41-9999-9999-9999
    5079398700051994 147 149 132 119 99 83 78-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999
    5079399400051994 220 217 206 195 181-9999 144-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999
    [chiefio@tubularbells Temps]$
    Just one of the ways that averaging a bunch of thermometers can go wrong… But as I’ve said many times: I didn’t make the rules and I didn’t decide that averaging a bunch of readings made any sense. The AGW folks did, so I have to address the record on their terms… -ems”

    REPLY3: “Same story for 1995. Data dropouts:

    [chiefio@tubularbells Temps]$ grep 1995 Temps.507
    5079301200001995 200 204 191 188 156 125-9999 119 129 142 155 188
    5079329200001995-9999 196 185 168 128 101-9999 97 123 138 154 197
    5079330900001995 176 188 169 164 129 105-9999 98 115 125 134 172
    5079361500001995 149 172 137 140 106 81-9999 75 92 106 120 148
    5079378000031995 165 169 158 129 93 61-9999 71 89 105 126 173
    5079384400041995 133 139 116 104 78 54-9999 63 79 93 104 133
    5079394500071995 89 91 81 86 71 30 27 49 57 56 68 86
    5079394700081995 88 89 82 85 71 32 30 50 57 56 66 83
    [chiefio@tubularbells Temps]$

    Which just continues to highlight the flakiness of averaging a random set of thermometers… The randomness of the individual records and data items themselves tend to cause breakage (which is probably why GIStemp goes to such great lengths to fabricate a number, some number, any number, to fill in gaps. -ems”

  11. Bob D says:

    >Bob , I believe it is Cambell Island not the Chathams..
    True thanks.

  12. Bob D says:

    Typo fixed in the graph: here.

  13. Bob D says:

    >ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/v2

    >where v2.mean is the file in question

    >-ems”

    Thanks EM, got it.

  14. Curt says:

    On the June 2009 Honolulu anomaly, Anthony Watts has you beat (your instincts are dead on, though);

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/17/noaa-fubar-high-tempclimate-records-from-faulty-sensor-to-remain-in-place-at-honolulu/

    He has several other posts in that time frame on this and related issues, all true to your heart…

    REPLY: “And how does the defense man have the forward beat when they are both on the same team? 8-) Thanks for the link. It is very nice to see two very different approaches arrive at the same conclusion. IMHO, it strengthens both a great deal. -ems”

  15. Paul says:

    Here’s an article in Investigate Magazine’s web-site about a weather station in Taupo, New Zealand that was recently moved to a warmer location to suit local residents’ demands:

    http://briefingroom.typepad.com/the_briefing_room/2009/12/tourist-town-relocates-temp-station-to-get-higher-readings.html

    From that example, it seems weather stations will march off to warmer places as a result of the demands of residents. I recall a similar issue here in Wellington some years ago when official readings were moved from Kelburn to the Airport – many residents were concerned that the temperature reports might end up being lower, thus making Wellington look colder compared to the rest of the country, and thus less desirable. They needen’t have worried – the airport is about 150m lower in altitude than Kelburn.

  16. newtothis says:

    EM

    I fail to see your point re the NZ data. I haven’t looked at the other zones

    Yes, the arithmetic average of the data with and without the island produces a different average temperature. Of course it will.

    But is your claim that GISTemp is doing arithmetic averages of absolute temperatures. If so that would be mathematically and scientifically illiterate of them. A High school Maths student should be able to spot that. And that is not what they and the other temperature record providers claim that they are doing.

    They all claim that they are doing different forms of area weighted averages of individual station anomalies which is valid, apart from any question marks about how the area weighting is done, adequacy of station coverage, time variant site specific conditions etc.

    Are you claiming that their analysis technique is totally at odds with what they claim it is? Not a bit at odds. Totally?

    REPLY: [ My point is very simple, and has little to do with GIStemp (it has its own issues, and many of the things it does ARE valid [like modification flag suppression and combining Antarctic data, or the idea of anomaly processes], but some are just broken. In particular, the UHI is daft and the “basket A” to “different basket “B” anomaly process loses the major advantage of anomaly processing and opens the door for instrument bias to leak through. It also ought not to delay anomaly calculation to the last STEPs. Yes, GIStemp does a lot of processing using averages of temperatures long before it reaches the “anomaly creation” that comes near the end. I believe that is part of why bias leaks through it). So forget about GIStemp when looking at the DATA and characterizing the DATA. (As opposed to any process done on it by anyone). The point here is to look at the DATA first and see what you must confront. Later you can ask how does GIStemp or any other code deal with the BIASES found in the data here.

    What I am doing is more akin to “signals intelligence” than climatology. I’m “characterizing the data”. The key there is DATA. And NOT temperatures.

    So you take a look at the New Zealand DATA. Yes, just the simple average of it. And no, there is nothing wrong with looking at a simple average of temperatures and no it is not “illiterate” to do so. I’m not expecting the result to be a TEMPERATURE. I’m expecting it to tell me about patterns in the DATA. And that is all the difference in the world.

    (Frankly, as I’ve said several dozen times, the average of a bunch of temperatures is lacking in meaning anyway. Averaging intensive variables loses much. Like counting the number of coins in your pocket and not looking at the denominations. We ought to be looking at net heat (extensive variable) as that is more sane. But I’m stuck with the paradigm in which the debate has anchored itself. Luckily, an average of an intensive variable can tell you things about patterns of the DATA, even if it can’t tell you what they mean. So I can pour a pot of boiling water into a pot of ice and without knowing the mass of each I have no idea what the final temperature will be. I know the first two were 100 C and 0 C but the result of averaging them, 50 C, is highly unlikely as the final temperature. Yet I can say I have two data items with an average of 50 and then observe post mixing a value of 30 and find value in that delta… I could then even go back and place some limits on how much could be ice and how much could be boiling. So while it is terribly scientifically illiterate to expect you can calculate a Global Average Temperature and have it mean anything, that’s what the Global Warming community does. For me, I’m interested in what it says about the heat flow and the information content limits.)

    So IFF New Zealand were generally warming over the decades, there ought to be a WARMING SIGNAL buried somewhere in the DATA. (NOTE: Not one word in that sentence is the word temperature…) So we go looking for what part of the DATA carries the WARMING SIGNAL. This is rather like looking for an encrypted message hiding in an unencrypted cover text, but much easier. We are not trying to decrypt the text (or know the actual temperature change) just find where it is being carried. It easier than cryptanalysis for the simple reason that if New Zealand were warming, we ought to see a general increase in the size of individual data items over time so the average of them also ought to rise over time given the narrow climate ranges of New Zealand near sea level where the thermometers are located. (At this point, we come perilously close to temperatures.) And that is exactly what we find. The crude average rises. But with a bit of a step function. Not the smooth pattern one would expect from smoothly increasing CO2.

    Then we look inside the set and find that the increase in the average over time is from a single cold station as it leaves the data set. The rest of the data, as an average, shows little in the way of a “warming signal”. It just is not carrying that information. (This conclusion is made even easier since the New Zealand data come largely from a single small area. Basically, you can think of it as a single GRID / BOX if you like).

    So with almost all the WARMING SIGNAL being carried by instrument change, we can readily conclude that the INSTRUMENT CHANGE is the dominant signal present for New Zealand. Further, when we look at the size of the signal left in the New Zealand DATA after that particular INSTRUMENT CHANGE is removed, it just isn’t much at all. About the size of the UHI signal.

    The reasonable conclusion is that there is very little to no CO2 warming signal space available in the DATA. Basically, INSTRUMENT CHANGE and UHI (both clearly proven to be real) can account for all the bandwidth available to carry a warming signal. There is no room left for CO2 as a warming signal.

    BTW, this is a first step in an analysis, not the last step. It catches “the big lumps” and lets you know what kind of issues you will likely encounter. Since then, I’ve been working on a different process to try to find the actual message. To answer the question “how warm?” That is the dT/dt process. It’s not done yet, but it is far enough along to be usable (with caution). See the posting here:

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/02/28/last-delta-t-an-experimental-approach/

    and you will find a New Zealand report inside of it. That report, too, finds very little ‘warming’ in New Zealand. We are about 1/2 C ‘warmer’ than many other similar periods of New Zealand history. About what you would expect from the normal decade+ cycles of natural variability and UHI.

    Now, by knowing the size of the INSTRUMENT CHANGE bias in the data (from the work above) and by knowing the UHI estimates made by others, I have a basis for evaluating the validity of the dT/dt process. (It looks to be pretty good so far). If I’d skipped this step, I’d have no idea what bias was in the DATA, so I’d have no idea if dT/dt were removing it well or not. Furthermore, I can now take Campbell Island out of a dT/dt run and then compare those results with the raw average above. This will give a decent idea how much of that INSTRUMENT CHANGE BIAS leaks from the data through the dT/dt process. (While I expect the answer to be ‘none’, it is better to measure…)

    In the end, the raw average lets us see where the warming signal is carried, make good guesses about what we ought to address (instrument change, UHI) and measure the likely size of what is left over. Then, after further analysis code is written, it lets us measure how well that code deals with each of the signal carrying components of the data.

    That’s the part I care about most.

    But what a lot of other folks care about is that little part where we find no room in the Inn for CO2 and that it must have a tiny little signal; or the fact that the bulk of all warming signal is carried by instrument change. And I can’t fault them for that. It is a reasonably interesting thing. Especially if you are not the person writing further analysis code. So those parts are written about too. -E. M. Smith. ]

  17. ChrisM says:

    Campbell Island still has a weather station and it is reporting here:
    http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/93947.html

    To add further to Paul’s comments above, Taupo now has its weather station next to the ambulance car park and there was even a barbeque there last time I looked.

    REPLY: [ Oh Boy, we can have the annual Thermometer Calibration and Reliability BBQ there, then! ;-) E.M.Smith]

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