GHCN – South America Siesta

South American Aridity Map

Original very large image. This map has no copyright notice on it, and was funded by U.N. grants and government entities. It is my belief that given the educational non-commercial nature of this use, and the funding and lack of copyright on the map, that this use constitutes “fair use”.

Earlier, we looked at both Brazil and Argentina in isolation. Argentina had a fairly stable thermometer history, and a fairly stable temperature history. Brazil had some northward migration of thermometers, though with a certain Samaba rhythm of ebb and flow in the movement north. Here we will be doing what we did for the Pacific Basin. Looking at the entire South American set, with the large and somewhat variable part, Brazil, taken out. Answering the question: How stable is Latin America if the one large known source of variation is set aside?

The answer is: Very Stable. Almost enough to put you to sleep; once things stabilize about 1951. It is, in summary, a South American Siesta. If there is “Global Warming”, it is asleep at the switch in Latin America.

.

South America, the Temperature History in GHCN

You get a rather more interesting story looking at South America as a whole. I’ve done something a little unusual here in that I’m using asymmetrical and non-linear banding. It just shows what is happening better, but be aware of the normal human bias to expect both linearity and symmetry… We still have South Pole on the far left and “toward the North Pole” on the far right. The south pole band covers up to latitude 50 S. That’s that “Cold Near Polar Tip” band. We then step by a 10 degree increment up to 40 S, about the top of the “Cool Patagonia” band. From that point, it is 5 degree bands to the “near the equator” at 10 S. Roughly the end of the cooler higher altitude band of Brazil. We then have a very fat 20 degree band that reaches to 10 degrees each side of the equator. The equator is a more stable place and this band captures that equatorial heat in one place. Finally we have the “10 N to the Pole” band that separates out that Caribbean Coastal area.

Among the more interesting bits is how the first thermometer starts out at the Equatorial band, then jumps wholesale to the Argentine Pampas band. The spreading begins from there, with a gross overrepresentation of that near polar tip band from 1909 to 1939 decade ending (which explains a lot of the cold bias we see in the early years a bit lower down.) And while, by 1949 decade ending, we start to have stability, there is still an upward drift in the equatorial coverage and coastal Caribbean tropical zones at the expense of the 30 S and 35 S zones. The net effect being a modest migration from the Pampas temperate zone to the equatorial and Caribbean tropical. We would expect to see significant warming over the life of the temperature series from these changes, but moderating in later years with 1969 onward being most stable.

This is the usual South Pole on the left, North Pole on the right.

What does South America look like? The decade changes by latitude look like this:

Look at ./Lats/Therm.by.lat3.Dec.LAT (Y/N)? y
 
       Year SP -50   -40   -35   -30   -25   -20   -15   -10    10   -NP
DecPct: 1849   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1859   0.0   0.0   0.0  28.6   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  71.4   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1869   0.0   0.0  34.5  65.5   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1879   0.0   0.0  20.4  55.1   6.1  18.4   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1889   2.6   0.0   5.2  48.1  19.5  20.8   0.0   0.0   3.9   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1899   9.1   0.0   3.0  24.2  16.4  21.2   0.0   0.0  20.6   5.5 100.0
DecPct: 1909  19.6   6.6   5.3  18.0  11.4  18.3   4.8   0.0  13.3   2.7 100.0
DecPct: 1919  19.1   8.5   4.3  16.8   9.8  18.1   4.7   1.7  14.9   2.1 100.0
DecPct: 1929  17.8   8.1   4.0  16.2  10.1  17.8   6.1   2.0  16.0   2.0 100.0
DecPct: 1939  10.9   8.3  13.3  21.1  14.0   9.2   5.1   3.3  13.8   1.1 100.0
DecPct: 1949   8.9   6.1  12.6  19.7  17.9   8.4   5.8   3.2  16.7   0.8 100.0
DecPct: 1959   4.9   4.6   7.8  17.6  12.1   8.7  10.0   5.9  23.5   4.9 100.0
DecPct: 1969   4.6   5.3   4.6  14.6  11.2   9.2   8.3   8.5  29.4   4.4 100.0
DecPct: 1979   4.5   5.2   4.9  13.5  11.7   9.7   8.3   7.9  29.9   4.6 100.0
DecPct: 1989   4.6   5.9   5.4  14.9  11.4   9.5   9.3   6.8  27.7   4.5 100.0
DecPct: 1999   4.2   7.1   6.0  17.0  12.0   8.4   5.9   4.5  28.9   5.9 100.0
DecPct: 2009   3.5   6.9   6.1  18.3  12.3   8.1   5.9   4.0  28.5   6.5 100.0
 
For COUNTRY CODE: 3

What does it look like in South America minus Brazil? We still have the first thermometer jump, the Patagonia Bubble, and the tropical growth. But after the early 1950s, we get fairly good stability (up to that Venzuelan latitude bump in the 1990s at the expense of the above 20 S to 10 S range.

Look at ./Lats/Therm.by.lat3-303.Dec.LAT (Y/N)? y
 
       Year SP -50   -40   -35   -30   -25   -20   -15   -10    10   -NP
DecPct: 1849   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1859   0.0   0.0   0.0  28.6   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  71.4   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1869   0.0   0.0  34.5  65.5   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1879   0.0   0.0  25.0  67.5   7.5   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1889   3.6   0.0   7.1  66.1  17.9   0.0   0.0   0.0   5.4   0.0 100.0
DecPct: 1899  13.4   0.0   4.5  35.7  15.2   0.0   0.0   0.0  23.2   8.0 100.0
DecPct: 1909  25.6   8.7   6.9  23.5  11.4  10.0   0.0   0.0  10.4   3.5 100.0
DecPct: 1919  25.8  11.5   5.7  22.6  10.9  12.9   0.6   0.0   7.2   2.9 100.0
DecPct: 1929  24.1  11.0   5.5  21.9  11.0  13.2   2.7   0.0   7.9   2.7 100.0
DecPct: 1939  13.1  10.1  16.1  25.5  15.7   6.2   3.6   1.5   6.9   1.3 100.0
DecPct: 1949  10.9   7.4  15.4  24.0  20.0   4.7   4.9   1.8  10.1   0.9 100.0
DecPct: 1959   5.7   5.3   9.0  20.0  12.8   6.5   9.2   5.1  20.7   5.6 100.0
DecPct: 1969   5.4   6.2   5.4  16.8  10.8   7.9   7.1   8.1  27.1   5.2 100.0
DecPct: 1979   5.2   6.1   5.7  15.5  11.4   8.3   6.9   7.6  27.8   5.3 100.0
DecPct: 1989   5.6   7.2   6.5  17.6  12.1   7.6   7.3   6.3  24.5   5.4 100.0
DecPct: 1999   5.3   8.8   7.5  20.6  13.0   7.0   2.6   3.2  24.7   7.3 100.0
DecPct: 2009   4.4   8.8   7.8  22.6  13.5   7.4   2.0   2.2  23.0   8.3 100.0
For COUNTRY CODE: 3 minus 303
 
Look at ./Lats/Therm.by.lat3-303.per.LAT (Y/N)? 

Not the greatest, but livable.

So what changed between 1989 and 2009? A lot, but I don’t know exactly what to make of it. Here are the station changes. Leading – means deleted, + means added. The only thing that really jumps out at me is the number of very high altitude stations being dropped. That third number, after the LAT and LONG, is the altitude in meters.

[chiefio@tubularbells analysis]$ cat 303-3.diff.1989-2009 
- 30187065000 RIVADAVIA                      -24.17  -62.90  205  205R   -9FLMAno-9x-9SUCCULENT THORNSA    0
- 30187149000 PRESIDENCIA R                  -26.82  -60.45   92   90S   49FLxxno-9x-9SUCCULENT THORNSC   16
- 30187166000 CORRIENTES AE                  -27.45  -58.77   62   60U  180FLxxno-9A 3SEMIARID WOODS  C   36
- 30187322000 CHEPES                         -31.33  -66.60  658  818R   -9HIxxno-9A-9SUCCULENT THORNSB   12
- 30187582000 AEROPARQUE                     -34.60  -58.50    6   21U 9927FLxxCO 4x-9WARM CROPS      C   95
- 30187585000 BUENOS AIRES                   -34.58  -58.48   25   21U 9927FLxxCO 4x-9WARM CROPS      C   92
- 30187596000 PUNTA INDIO B                  -35.37  -57.28   22   30R   -9FLxxCO10A-9WATER           A    0
- 30187623001 GENERAL ACHA                   -37.40  -64.60  230  262R   -9FLDEno-9A-9WARM GRASS/SHRUBA    0
- 30187642000 AZUL AERO                      -36.75  -59.83  132  103S   44FLxxno-9A 3WARM CROPS      C   26
- 30187679000 PIGUE AERO                     -37.60  -62.38  304  275S   10HIxxno-9A 1WARM CROPS      B   23
- 30187774000 MAQUINCHAO                     -41.25  -68.73  888  880R   -9HIDEno-9A-9COOL DESERT     A    0
- 30187814000 PASO DEL LOS INDIOS            -43.82  -68.88  460 -999R   -9HIDEno-9x-9WATER           A    0
- 30187880000 GOBERNADOR GR                  -48.78  -70.17  357  408R   -9HIDEno-9A-9COOL DESERT     A    0
- 30187903000 LAGO ARGENTIN                  -50.33  -72.30  220  224R   -9MVxxLA-9A-9WARM MIXED      B    0
- 30187912000 SANTA CRUZ AE                  -50.02  -68.57  111   72R   -9HIxxCO10A-9COOL DESERT     A    0
- 30285041000 COBIJA                         -11.03  -68.78  235  275R   -9HIxxno-9A-9TROP. SEASONAL  A   10
- 30285043000 RIBERALTA                      -11.00  -66.12  141  158R   -9HIxxno-9A-9TROP. SEASONAL  A    0
- 30285104000 SAN JOAQUIN                    -13.07  -64.82  140  200R   -9HIxxno-9A-9TROP. SAVANNA   A    0
- 30285141000 RURRENABAQUE                   -14.47  -67.57  204  719R   -9HIxxno-9A-9TROP. MONTANE   A    0
- 30285154000 TRINIDAD                       -14.82  -64.92  155  210S   20HIxxno-9A 2TROP. SAVANNA   C   24
- 30285196000 CONCEPCION                     -16.15  -62.02  497  404R   -9HIxxno-9A-9TROP. SAVANNA   A    0
- 30285201000 LA PAZ/ALTO                    -16.52  -68.18 4038 4040U  635MVxxno-9A 1WARM GRASS/SHRUBC   46
- 30285207000 SAN IGNACIO D                  -16.38  -60.97  413  422R   -9HIMAno-9A-9TROP. SAVANNA   C    0
- 30285223000 COCHABAMBA                     -17.42  -66.18 2548 2744U  204MVxxno-9A 1WARM GRASS/SHRUBC   30
- 30285230000 CHARANA                        -17.58  -69.60 4054 4098R   -9MVxxno-9A-9WARM GRASS/SHRUBA    0
- 30285242000 ORURO                          -18.05  -67.07 3702 3658U  124HIxxLA-9x-9TUNDRA          C    0
- 30285245000 SANTA CRUZ/EL                  -17.80  -63.18  418  516U  255FLxxno-9x-9TROP. SAVANNA   C   63
- 30285247000 SAN JOSE DE                    -17.80  -60.73  284  400R   -9HIMAno-9A-9SUCCULENT THORNSA    0
- 30285268000 ROBORE                         -18.32  -59.77  276  508R   -9HIxxno-9A-9TROP. SAVANNA   B    9
- 30285283000 SUCRE                          -19.02  -65.27 2903 2718U   64MVxxno-9x-9WARM GRASS/SHRUBC   38
- 30285289000 PUERTO SUAREZ                  -18.98  -57.82  134  201R   -9FLMAno-9A-9TROP. SAVANNA   B    0
- 30285315000 CAMIRI                         -20.00  -63.53  798 1015R   -9MVxxno-9A-9SUCCULENT THORNSC   19
- 30285365000 YACUIBA                        -21.95  -63.65  645  714R   -9MVxxno-9x-9SUCCULENT THORNSA    0
- 30485543000 QUINTERO SANT                  -32.78  -71.52    8   15S   15FLxxCO 1A 1WATER           C   17
---
+ 30485574000 PUDAHUEL                       -33.38  -70.78  475  504U 3615MVxxno-9A 5MED. GRAZING    C   30
+ 30485577000 SANTIAGO Q. N                  -33.43  -70.68  520  535U 3615MVxxno-9x-9MED. GRAZING    C   75
+ 30485682000 CONCEPCION                     -36.77  -73.05   12   41U  206HIxxCO 4A 1WATER           C   43
- 30485766000 VALDIVIA                       -39.62  -73.08   19  147U  116HIxxCO17A25WARM CROPS      A    0
- 30485834000 ISLA HUAFO                     -43.57  -74.83  140    0R   -9HIxxCO 1x-9WATER           A    0
---
+ 30485874000 BALMACEDA                      -45.92  -71.68  520  903R   -9MVxxno-9A-9WARM DECIDUOUS  A    0
- 30489057000 BASE ARTURO P                  -62.50  -59.68    5    4R   -9HIICCO 1x-9WATER           A    0
- 30580110000 MEDELLIN/OLAY                    6.22  -75.60 1499 2121U 1071MVxxno-9A 1WARM FIELD WOODSC   38
- 30580241000 LAS GAVIOTAS                     4.55  -70.92  167  203R   -9HIxxno-9A-9TROP. SAVANNA   A    0
- 30580336001 TUMACO/EL MIRA                   1.60  -78.80    5   30R   -9FLxxCO10x-9EQ. EVERGREEN   A    0
- 30684088002 IZOBAMBA-SANTA      CATALINA    -0.37  -78.55 3058 3544R   -9MVxxno-9x-9WARM GRASS/SHRUBC    9
- 30684132000 NUEVO ROCAFUE                   -0.92  -75.40  215  160R   -9HIFOno-9x-9EQ. EVERGREEN   A    0
- 30684135000 PORTO VIEJO-G                   -1.03  -80.43   44  121U   60HIxxCO25x-9WARM GRASS/SHRUBC   21
- 30684147000 AMBATO/CHACHO                   -1.20  -78.57 2520 3042U   78MVxxno-9x-9WARM GRASS/SHRUBC    7
- 30684179000 EL PUYO                         -1.50  -77.95  950 1004R   -9MVxxno-9x-9EQ. EVERGREEN   A    0
- 30684202001 MILAGRO                         -2.12  -79.60   13   30R   -9FLxxno-9x-9TROPICAL DRY FORC   22
- 30684203000 GUAYAQUIL/SIM                   -2.15  -79.88    9   24U  823HIxxCO30A 1TROPICAL DRY FORC   59
- 30684226000 CANAR                           -2.55  -78.93 3120 3290R   -9MVxxno-9x-9TROP. MONTANE   B    9
- 30781001000 GEORGETOWN                       6.80  -58.15    2    0U   63FLxxCO 2x-9MARSH, SWAMP    C   20
- 30781002000 TIMEHRI                          6.50  -58.25   30   51R   -9FLxxno-9A-9COOL CROPS      B    0
---
+ 30886065000 PRATS-GIL                      -22.70  -61.50  220  224R   -9FLxxno-9A-9SUCCULENT THORNSA    0
- 30886223000 CARAPEGUA                      -25.80  -57.22  116  146R   -9HIxxno-9x-9TROPICAL DRY FORA    0
- 30886248000 PUERTO STROESSNER      PARAGUA -25.53  -54.60  196  148U   94FLxxno-9x-9TROP. SEASONAL  C   40
- 30984390000 TALARA                          -4.57  -81.25   90   55U   55HIxxCO 3A 1WARM IRRIGATED  C   20
- 30984425000 YURIMAGUAS                      -5.90  -76.08  184  142R   -9FLFOno-9A-9EQ. EVERGREEN   A    0
- 30984444000 CHACHAPOYAS                     -6.22  -77.83 2435 2126R   -9MVxxno-9A-9EQ. EVERGREEN   B    0
- 30984472000 CAJAMARCA                       -7.13  -78.47 2622 3213R   -9MVxxno-9A-9WARM GRASS/SHRUBC    0
- 30984474000 JUANJUI                         -7.22  -76.72  363  473R   -9MVFOno-9x-9TROP. MONTANE   A    0
- 30984531000 CHIMBOTE                        -9.17  -78.52   21  114U  216MVxxCO 1A10WATER           A    0
- 30984534000 TINGO MARIA                     -9.13  -75.95  665  859R   -9MVxxno-9A-9WARM GRASS/SHRUBA    0
- 30984542000 ANTA (HUARAZ)                   -9.35  -77.60 2760 4064S   45MVxxno-9A20SUCCULENT THORNSA    0
- 30984564000 HUANUCO                         -9.90  -75.75 1860 3087U   52MVxxno-9A 1WARM GRASS/SHRUBA    0
- 30984658000 PUERTO MALDON                  -12.63  -69.20  266  210S   13HIxxno-9A 1COOL FOR./FIELD A    0
- 30984673000 AYACUCHO                       -13.13  -74.22 2749 2775U   69MVxxno-9A 1WARM GRASS/SHRUBC   12
- 30984721000 SAN JUAN                       -15.38  -75.17   60   63R   -9MVxxCO 3A-9WATER           A   14
+ 31386350000 RIVERA                         -30.88  -55.53  241  254U   50FLxxno-9x-9WARM GRASS/SHRUBC   32
+ 31386430000 PAYSANDU                       -32.33  -58.03   61   58U   62FLxxno-9x-9WARM GRASS/SHRUBB   27
- 31386460000 PASO DE LOS T                  -32.80  -56.52   75   91R   -9FLxxLA-9x-9WARM GRASS/SHRUBB   13
- 31386490000 MERCEDES                       -33.25  -58.07   17   30S   35FLxxCO30A 5WARM CROPS      B   18
- 31386500000 TREINTA Y TRE                  -33.22  -54.38   46   79S   26FLxxno-9A 3WARM CROPS      B   17
- 31480405000 LA ORCHILA                      11.80  -66.18    3    0R   -9FLxxCO 1A-9WATER           A    0
- 31480407000 MARACAIBO-LA                    10.57  -71.73   65    8U  652HIxxCO10A 4TROP. SAVANNA   C   20
- 31480416002 CARACAS CAGIGAL OBS  VENEZUELA  10.50  -66.90 1042 1135U 1035MVxxCO12x-9WARM CROPS      C  107
+ 31581401000 SAINT-LAURENT                    5.50  -54.03    9   34R   -9FLxxCO30x-9EQ. EVERGREEN   C    0
+ 31581408000 SAINT GEORGES                    3.88  -51.80    7   46R   -9FLxxno-9x-9EQ. EVERGREEN   A    0
+ 31581415000 MARIPASOULA                      3.63  -54.03  106  268R   -9HIxxno-9A-9EQ. EVERGREEN   A    0
+ 31788903000 GRYTVIKEN,                     -54.27  -36.50    3   88R   -9MVxxCO 1x-9WATER           A    0
[chiefio@tubularbells analysis]$ 

The data format of those records is described here, about 1/2 way down:

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/02/24/ghcn-global-historical-climate-network/

The South American Temperature Series

Same as the others. Year, 12 monthly averages of the daily MIN-MAX average, the average of those daily values over the whole year, and the number of thermometer locations (ignoring modification flag) in use in that year.

After a ramp up in thermometer numbers to about 1950, with the usual latitude and altitude dependent bias in the results, we reach relative stability about 1950. From that point forward, the temperature average runs about 18 C +/- a degree or so. There is some ripple in the data. It is not clear to me if this is from a climate cycle or from geographic variations in thermometer counts due to dropouts from the various revolutions that seem to sweep over South American countries from time to time. Some digging would likely make that more clear.

What is very clear in this data is that CO2 variation rising over time, especially post WWII, does not correlate well with the flat 18C while changes in thermometer locations have a very strong correlation.

Look at ./Temps/Temps.3.minus303.yrs.GAT (Y/N)? y
 
Thermometer Records, Average of Monthly Data and Yearly Average
by Year Across Month, with a count of thermometer records in that year 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
YEAR  JAN  FEB  MAR  APR  MAY  JUN JULY  AUG SEPT  OCT  NOV  DEC  YR COUNT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
1880 22.1 21.5 19.1 15.4 12.6 11.6 10.1 12.4 11.9 14.9 19.2 22.5 16.1   5
1881 21.4 22.6 20.4 15.9 12.4  9.2  8.6 11.4 13.8 16.3 19.2 22.9 16.2   5
1882 22.9 21.8 18.8 14.8 12.4  9.4  9.1 11.9 13.6 18.1 19.0 20.5 16.0   5
1883 22.2 21.5 19.9 15.4 13.0 11.2 10.2 11.0 13.0 16.0 19.0 21.5 16.2   6
1884 23.7 21.9 21.1 15.8 11.0  8.5  9.0 14.4 14.0 15.9 18.9 21.6 16.3   5
1885 22.7 21.3 19.4 14.4 11.5  8.6  7.8 10.7 14.1 16.3 20.1 20.5 15.6   5
1886 23.0 21.5 20.0 15.6 12.5  8.8  9.5 10.9 13.0 15.3 18.5 21.8 15.9   5
1887 22.1 20.8 20.5 17.0 14.2 14.3 13.0 16.2 15.5 17.6 19.9 21.7 17.7   6
1888 22.3 21.5 19.5 16.9 12.6  9.9 12.6 13.4 14.7 16.2 18.2 20.8 16.5   7
1889 20.8 20.3 19.5 15.6 13.8 11.3 10.9 11.0 13.7 16.4 18.8 19.8 16.0   7
1890 19.9 20.4 18.4 17.4 12.4 10.7 11.6 11.3 13.2 16.3 19.8 21.3 16.1   7
1891 19.8 20.6 19.3 17.1 13.7 13.6 13.8 13.8 16.3 17.3 19.7 20.8 17.1  10
1892 20.6 20.2 18.2 16.3 13.7 11.1 12.8 12.6 14.4 16.5 17.9 19.6 16.2   9
1893 19.9 19.2 19.6 16.6 13.8 11.8 15.0 14.6 16.5 17.0 20.6 21.6 17.2  11
1894 21.5 21.4 19.4 17.8 16.1 13.5 13.9 15.0 16.3 17.7 20.1 20.8 17.8  11
1895 20.1 20.7 19.4 17.4 15.4 14.8 13.8 15.0 16.0 16.6 18.3 20.0 17.3  12
1896 20.5 20.6 19.3 17.4 15.6 12.8 14.7 16.0 16.7 18.6 19.2 20.2 17.6  13
1897 21.0 20.8 20.5 17.8 15.3 13.2 11.9 13.3 15.0 17.3 19.6 20.8 17.2  13
1898 20.7 21.5 18.9 16.6 14.7 14.1 12.3 12.7 15.2 16.1 18.1 20.5 16.8  13
1899 20.8 20.1 19.5 17.4 16.2 12.3 14.4 14.0 14.9 16.2 18.1 20.9 17.1  13
1900 21.7 21.4 19.6 17.5 14.6 14.2 15.4 14.0 15.5 16.7 18.5 19.5 17.4  15
1901 19.1 18.2 17.1 14.5 12.8 11.9 10.3 11.1 13.2 14.5 15.5 18.6 14.7  22
1902 18.5 18.8 16.9 15.2 13.0 10.9  9.2  9.4 11.8 13.5 15.6 17.7 14.2  23
1903 17.6 17.6 16.6 14.1 12.3 10.4  9.6 10.3 12.5 13.3 15.4 16.5 13.8  24
1904 18.4 17.4 16.2 14.9 12.3 10.9  9.7 10.7 12.9 13.6 15.6 17.0 14.1  25
1905 16.7 15.8 15.7 13.1 10.2  8.9  7.3  9.0 10.9 12.4 14.2 15.0 12.4  26
1906 17.2 17.1 15.6 13.4 10.6  7.8  8.4  9.7 10.8 13.0 14.5 15.3 12.8  27
1907 16.7 17.3 15.1 12.6 10.3  8.1  8.5  8.0  9.9 12.2 14.4 15.1 12.3  26
1908 16.6 16.6 15.8 12.3  9.3  9.0  8.3  8.6 10.8 11.8 13.9 15.0 12.3  25
1909 17.0 15.7 15.2 13.2  9.9  8.6  8.5  9.9 11.0 12.8 13.9 15.5 12.6  27
1910 16.2 15.8 14.4 12.2 10.5  8.7  7.7  9.2 10.4 12.4 14.5 15.6 12.3  28
1911 16.2 15.8 14.6 12.1 10.7  8.1  8.2  8.0  9.5 11.6 13.1 15.0 11.9  27
1912 16.6 15.9 15.0 12.5  9.6  8.3  7.5  7.8 10.4 12.5 13.1 15.5 12.1  27
1913 16.4 16.4 14.5 13.0 10.5  8.3  8.8  9.0 11.1 12.4 14.0 15.6 12.5  28
1914 16.9 16.9 15.2 12.5 10.8  8.7  8.6  8.8 10.2 12.2 13.1 15.6 12.5  29
1915 16.1 16.5 15.2 12.7 10.6  7.6  9.0  9.2 11.0 12.6 14.8 16.0 12.6  30
1916 17.0 16.5 14.5 13.6 11.1  7.1  7.2  9.1 11.0 13.0 14.5 15.4 12.5  30
1917 16.8 16.7 15.0 13.3 10.6  9.3  8.4  9.1 10.7 12.8 14.7 16.1 12.8  30
1918 16.5 16.4 15.0 13.2  9.6  8.5  7.9  8.8 10.3 12.6 14.1 16.3 12.4  31
1919 17.3 16.5 15.8 12.6 11.6  8.7  8.9  9.0 10.0 11.8 13.1 15.9 12.6  30
1920 16.7 16.3 15.3 13.7 11.0  8.4  8.0  9.8 11.3 12.0 14.0 15.8 12.7  29
1921 16.3 16.1 14.9 13.3 11.0  8.0  8.2  9.0 10.7 12.7 14.1 15.9 12.5  30
1922 16.5 16.3 15.0 13.1 10.8  7.9  9.6  9.4 11.3 12.2 14.5 15.7 12.7  31
1923 16.2 16.5 15.3 12.8 10.1  8.8  7.0  8.5 10.6 11.5 14.0 14.9 12.2  31
1924 16.5 15.8 15.3 12.5 10.0  9.0  7.8  8.6 10.3 13.0 13.9 16.0 12.4  31
1925 16.4 16.5 15.6 13.0 10.3  8.3  8.1  9.7 10.1 12.4 14.7 16.4 12.6  31
1926 16.8 17.2 15.8 12.8 10.6  9.1  8.3  9.8 10.7 12.3 14.6 16.1 12.8  31
1927 16.5 17.0 15.6 13.3 10.6  8.4  8.3  9.2 10.1 12.5 14.2 15.3 12.6  31
1928 16.1 15.7 15.1 13.1 10.2  7.8  8.2  9.3 10.8 12.5 14.5 15.0 12.4  31
1929 16.3 16.3 14.7 13.5 10.1  8.4  8.7  8.7 10.8 12.4 14.4 15.2 12.5  30
1930 16.3 16.2 14.5 13.0 10.3  8.8  7.0  7.5 10.7 11.4 14.3 15.9 12.2  29
1931 19.7 19.9 17.8 14.5 10.1  8.9  8.9 10.2 11.3 15.5 15.8 19.2 14.3  72
1932 20.6 19.6 18.2 15.0 11.2  9.5 10.6  9.7 12.6 15.1 17.9 18.9 14.9  72
1933 19.7 19.3 17.6 15.4 12.7  9.7  8.2 11.3 12.7 15.3 17.2 18.6 14.8  76
1934 21.0 18.5 17.8 13.8 12.0  9.9  9.5 10.8 11.9 14.5 16.4 18.5 14.6  75
1935 19.8 19.6 19.1 14.5 13.8 10.5  9.0 10.7 11.5 13.3 17.6 18.8 14.9  75
1936 19.9 19.4 18.0 15.4 12.0  9.9 10.2  9.8 12.7 15.2 17.1 19.3 14.9  75
1937 20.1 20.1 17.7 15.2 11.9 11.1  9.4 10.8 12.6 14.1 17.1 19.2 14.9  75
1938 19.1 19.4 17.3 13.9 12.5 10.1  9.5  9.6 12.8 15.3 17.3 19.7 14.7  75
1939 20.6 19.2 17.4 13.9 12.4 10.9 10.3 11.7 12.5 15.2 16.1 18.1 14.9  76
1940 19.8 19.7 17.7 15.1 13.4 11.1 11.1 10.3 12.8 13.9 16.9 18.9 15.1  77
1941 20.1 18.9 17.2 14.6 11.9 10.5 10.5 11.6 11.4 15.9 16.9 18.9 14.9  91
1942 20.7 20.0 17.4 15.2 11.5  8.8  8.6 11.1 13.0 14.9 18.0 20.0 14.9  91
1943 20.9 20.7 17.8 15.5 13.3 11.1 11.2  9.7 13.4 16.0 16.8 19.6 15.5  94
1944 19.7 20.3 18.4 15.6 13.2 11.0 11.0 12.1 14.7 15.8 17.5 20.4 15.8  93
1945 20.9 20.0 18.3 16.2 13.1 10.2  9.9 12.6 13.6 16.3 16.9 18.9 15.6  95
1946 19.3 19.8 17.5 15.9 12.8 10.0 10.0 11.4 13.6 15.1 17.7 18.6 15.1  95
1947 19.9 19.6 17.8 14.9 12.5 11.5  9.4 10.3 12.5 15.1 18.0 18.6 15.0  93
1948 20.5 19.4 17.1 15.0 12.6 11.2  9.6  9.7 13.6 15.3 17.5 20.8 15.2  89
1949 20.3 19.8 18.3 16.3 13.6 11.7 10.6 11.6 13.0 14.9 18.4 19.6 15.7 101
1950 20.4 20.8 19.1 16.8 14.2 12.1 11.3 12.2 13.3 15.4 17.6 19.8 16.1 108
1951 21.4 20.3 19.8 17.9 17.2 15.1 15.4 15.9 17.0 18.7 19.9 21.2 18.3 164
1952 22.7 22.1 21.6 18.1 17.0 12.8 14.6 15.2 16.6 18.1 19.7 21.1 18.3 167
1953 21.7 22.2 20.7 18.1 16.4 14.5 12.7 16.2 17.5 17.4 19.9 21.3 18.2 173
1954 21.4 21.6 20.6 18.2 15.0 13.6 13.0 14.6 15.6 17.6 20.0 20.8 17.7 173
1955 22.2 21.4 19.4 17.8 15.6 14.2 12.6 14.6 16.2 17.5 20.5 21.0 17.8 178
1956 20.7 21.0 20.3 17.4 14.8 14.1 14.5 14.9 16.6 18.4 20.1 21.3 17.8 181
1957 22.1 21.2 21.6 18.3 18.1 14.8 13.9 15.7 16.6 18.9 20.0 21.7 18.6 181
1958 22.4 21.9 21.3 19.0 16.4 15.8 16.4 14.8 17.5 19.5 20.4 21.0 18.9 184
1959 21.4 22.0 20.6 17.9 16.1 14.8 15.3 14.8 17.1 18.5 19.9 21.5 18.3 190
1960 22.6 22.3 21.0 18.7 16.1 15.1 14.6 15.6 17.1 18.8 20.2 21.5 18.6 189
1961 22.1 21.4 20.5 18.5 17.5 14.5 14.5 16.6 16.8 19.1 20.3 21.0 18.6 208
1962 21.3 21.4 20.7 18.2 16.2 14.8 13.5 15.7 17.6 18.5 20.7 21.7 18.4 208
1963 21.5 21.5 20.2 19.0 16.9 15.4 15.7 16.3 17.1 18.8 19.2 21.1 18.6 207
1964 21.9 21.4 20.0 18.7 17.1 14.0 14.2 15.4 17.0 18.3 19.3 20.3 18.1 209
1965 21.6 21.5 20.2 18.4 16.5 16.8 14.7 16.3 17.1 19.2 20.3 20.6 18.6 211
1966 21.6 20.5 20.2 18.8 16.8 15.6 14.9 15.0 16.5 18.3 19.9 20.5 18.2 212
1967 21.1 21.1 19.8 18.7 17.7 13.5 14.4 15.4 16.8 18.5 19.7 21.3 18.2 208
1968 21.3 21.1 19.7 17.4 15.6 14.7 15.4 15.9 16.5 18.3 20.8 20.9 18.1 212
1969 21.6 21.6 20.7 19.0 17.4 15.0 15.0 15.1 17.6 18.0 20.1 21.3 18.5 221
1970 21.4 21.5 20.2 19.2 16.5 14.5 14.3 14.8 17.0 18.2 19.1 20.4 18.1 221
1971 20.8 20.4 20.1 17.5 15.8 13.8 15.2 15.7 17.9 18.5 20.6 21.4 18.1 242
1972 21.9 21.6 20.2 18.5 18.1 16.1 15.8 15.4 17.5 18.6 20.2 21.6 18.8 242
1973 22.2 21.9 21.3 19.1 17.0 16.1 14.6 15.2 17.1 18.9 19.7 20.4 18.6 245
1974 21.3 20.6 20.2 18.4 16.7 14.9 15.2 15.3 16.5 18.5 20.2 20.6 18.2 242
1975 21.3 21.0 20.2 18.7 16.8 15.8 14.1 15.2 17.0 18.5 19.5 21.1 18.3 254
1976 21.3 20.9 19.3 18.6 17.4 14.9 14.9 15.3 17.1 19.1 20.3 21.0 18.3 251
1977 21.8 21.5 20.8 19.3 16.6 15.8 15.9 15.9 18.0 19.5 20.1 21.3 18.9 255
1978 21.5 21.5 20.9 18.7 17.0 15.3 16.1 15.4 18.0 19.3 20.4 21.6 18.8 251
1979 22.4 21.9 20.6 18.8 17.3 15.3 16.0 17.5 17.3 19.2 19.9 21.3 19.0 251
1980 22.2 21.8 21.7 19.5 17.7 15.2 14.9 16.0 17.1 19.2 19.8 21.6 18.9 254
1981 21.3 21.6 20.5 19.0 17.4 14.8 14.3 15.6 16.1 18.2 19.8 20.9 18.3 225
1982 21.6 20.6 20.2 18.5 16.6 14.2 13.9 15.8 16.7 18.4 19.4 21.6 18.1 190
1983 22.6 21.6 20.6 18.7 16.3 13.0 12.9 14.0 15.6 18.6 19.9 22.0 18.0 183
1984 21.8 21.5 20.0 17.2 15.7 13.0 13.6 13.5 16.3 18.9 19.5 20.3 17.6 184
1985 21.7 21.7 20.8 18.5 16.7 14.5 14.2 14.6 16.5 18.3 20.2 21.0 18.2 189
1986 22.0 20.8 19.1 18.4 15.6 14.4 13.8 15.2 16.2 17.9 19.4 21.2 17.8 184
1987 22.3 22.1 21.1 19.2 15.2 14.8 15.3 14.6 16.5 18.8 20.7 21.3 18.5 187
1988 22.3 21.8 21.6 18.4 15.5 13.7 13.1 15.1 16.0 18.1 21.0 22.3 18.2 193
1989 22.8 22.5 20.5 18.4 15.7 14.8 13.5 15.6 14.8 18.0 20.1 21.9 18.2 188
1990 22.3 21.5 20.6 18.1 15.6 13.6 15.9 16.2 15.7 18.5 20.5 20.7 18.3 171
1991 22.1 20.9 20.7 17.7 15.8 12.0 12.4 14.5 16.1 16.4 18.9 21.1 17.4 170
1992 22.5 23.7 23.2 16.8 13.8 12.0 13.6 13.2 14.3 16.0 18.0 21.2 17.4 154
1993 21.4 20.6 19.0 15.9 13.8 11.9 12.9 12.4 15.9 18.3 16.3 20.9 16.6 157
1994 21.8 20.3 19.3 16.5 15.8 17.2 12.8 14.9 18.3 16.7 19.5 22.1 17.9 163
1995 21.5 20.8 19.9 18.1 15.6 12.8 14.5 15.0 16.5 17.8 20.4 21.9 17.9 160
1996 21.4 21.1 20.0 18.1 17.1 13.3 13.6 16.1 15.3 18.3 19.3 21.0 17.9 164
1997 22.0 20.5 20.1 18.1 16.5 13.5 13.8 16.3 16.2 18.2 19.1 21.5 18.0 165
1998 21.1 20.1 19.4 18.1 16.5 14.5 14.9 14.7 15.3 19.3 20.7 20.6 17.9 162
1999 21.3 21.5 20.3 16.7 16.6 13.7 13.5 14.9 17.3 17.5 19.2 20.7 17.8 160
2000 22.1 21.1 19.1 17.8 15.7 14.1 12.3 14.9 15.4 18.7 19.2 21.1 17.6 156
2001 21.1 21.8 21.3 17.9 15.5 14.0 14.1 16.4 16.7 18.2 20.0 21.7 18.2 153
2002 21.9 21.1 20.2 17.8 15.4 12.3 13.4 15.0 16.8 18.4 20.1 21.0 17.8 147
2003 22.1 21.5 20.4 18.4 16.2 14.8 14.0 14.0 17.0 19.2 20.1 20.1 18.2 148
2004 22.6 21.7 21.1 18.4 13.8 13.8 13.1 15.5 17.0 18.3 20.7 21.8 18.1 143
2005 22.6 22.3 20.8 18.1 16.2 14.1 14.4 15.5 16.2 18.3 20.3 21.0 18.3 142
2006 22.5 22.3 20.9 18.9 16.1 15.3 16.5 15.7 16.9 19.9 20.3 22.3 19.0 142
2007 22.3 21.9 21.1 18.7 15.1 13.8 12.7 13.6 17.0 18.4 19.1 20.8 17.9 136
2008 22.3 22.1 20.7 18.0 15.7 13.9 15.3 15.4 17.3 19.1 21.6 22.1 18.6 133
     21.3 21.0 19.9 17.8 15.7 13.9 13.7 14.6 16.0 17.8 19.4 20.7 17.6
     20.3 20.0 18.7 16.3 14.0 12.0 11.9 12.8 14.4 16.2 18.1 19.6 16.2
 
For Country Code 3 minus 303
[chiefio@tubularbells analysis]$

For comparison, here is the data series for South America as a whole. We can see the warming introduced with Brazil (not a surprise, the Amazon is a warm place) and we can also see the tendency for the Brazilian warming trend from it’s thermometer migration north to show up in these numbers, though the effect is fairly muted. We have the typical expansion of thermometer counts, then a threshold is reached with sufficient numbers to give some stability. That, again, is about 1951 with a 19.1 C annual average. This rises, with that Samba wobble, to 20.2 in 2006. Not much, but the Brazilian thermometer changes show through.

Look at ./Temps/Temps.3.yrs.GAT (Y/N)? y
 
Thermometer Records, Average of Monthly Data and Yearly Average
by Year Across Month, with a count of thermometer records in that year 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
YEAR  JAN  FEB  MAR  APR  MAY  JUN JULY  AUG SEPT  OCT  NOV  DEC  YR COUNT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
1880 22.7 22.3 20.3 16.9 14.3 13.4 12.0 14.2 13.5 16.1 20.0 23.0 17.4   6
1881 22.2 23.1 21.2 17.1 14.0 11.1 10.5 12.7 15.0 17.2 19.8 23.1 17.2   6
1882 23.2 22.2 19.8 16.2 13.9 11.2 10.7 13.2 14.6 18.7 19.5 20.8 17.0   6
1883 22.5 22.0 20.6 16.6 14.2 12.8 11.6 12.3 14.3 16.9 19.7 21.9 17.1   7
1884 23.7 22.3 21.6 17.1 12.7 10.5 10.9 15.7 15.0 16.8 19.6 22.0 17.3   6
1885 22.7 21.8 19.9 16.5 13.8 11.0 10.5 12.4 15.3 16.9 20.6 21.2 16.9   7
1886 23.4 21.7 20.8 17.0 13.6 10.5 10.9 12.0 14.3 16.2 19.1 21.8 16.8   7
1887 22.0 21.4 20.4 17.8 14.9 14.8 13.7 16.1 16.2 18.1 19.7 21.8 18.1   9
1888 21.4 21.6 20.1 17.5 14.1 11.9 13.6 14.7 16.5 18.2 19.4 21.5 17.5  10
1889 21.8 21.4 20.8 17.4 15.3 12.1 12.7 12.5 14.2 17.0 19.3 21.1 17.1  10
1890 20.9 21.1 19.6 17.7 13.9 11.9 12.9 12.7 14.8 16.6 19.4 21.2 16.9  10
1891 20.6 21.1 20.0 17.8 14.7 14.4 14.1 14.3 16.6 17.7 19.7 20.7 17.6  13
1892 21.3 21.0 19.4 17.2 14.4 12.3 13.0 13.4 15.0 16.9 18.3 19.6 16.8  12
1893 20.5 19.6 20.0 17.0 14.5 12.7 14.8 14.4 16.0 16.9 19.9 21.4 17.3  14
1894 22.2 21.8 19.9 18.0 16.2 13.4 14.0 15.2 16.5 18.2 20.0 20.8 18.0  14
1895 20.7 20.9 20.1 17.9 15.9 15.0 14.2 15.4 16.1 17.1 18.8 20.9 17.8  16
1896 21.5 21.8 20.3 18.5 16.7 14.8 15.9 17.2 18.0 19.7 20.5 21.8 18.9  18
1897 22.2 21.7 21.4 19.6 17.3 14.9 13.7 15.3 16.5 18.7 20.5 22.0 18.6  18
1898 22.3 22.6 20.9 18.8 16.6 16.3 14.9 15.2 16.7 17.6 19.6 21.6 18.6  18
1899 21.9 21.3 21.1 18.9 17.6 14.3 16.0 16.2 16.9 18.1 19.8 21.7 18.6  18
1900 22.4 22.2 21.1 18.9 16.8 15.9 17.0 16.0 17.2 18.2 19.8 20.8 18.9  20
1901 20.4 19.6 18.6 16.2 14.6 13.7 12.4 13.4 15.2 16.5 17.2 19.7 16.5  29
1902 19.8 20.2 18.4 16.9 14.9 13.1 11.8 11.7 14.0 15.5 17.6 19.4 16.1  30
1903 19.0 19.2 18.4 15.9 14.2 12.7 11.8 12.5 14.4 15.2 17.0 18.3 15.7  31
1904 19.6 18.9 17.8 16.4 13.9 12.5 11.8 12.6 14.8 15.2 17.2 18.4 15.8  32
1905 18.1 17.5 17.0 14.9 12.5 11.3  9.9 11.5 13.2 14.7 16.1 16.9 14.5  33
1906 18.4 18.2 17.0 15.1 12.6 10.1 10.6 11.9 12.8 14.9 16.3 17.0 14.6  34
1907 18.1 18.7 16.8 14.6 12.2 10.6 10.5 10.6 12.6 14.4 16.4 17.2 14.4  33
1908 18.3 18.3 17.5 14.5 12.1 11.5 11.0 11.0 13.1 14.0 15.9 17.0 14.5  32
1909 18.3 17.6 16.8 15.0 11.9 10.7 10.7 11.9 13.0 14.5 15.6 17.0 14.4  34
1910 18.0 17.5 16.4 14.5 12.5 11.3 10.4 12.0 13.0 14.6 16.4 17.4 14.5  36
1911 17.9 17.6 16.4 14.3 13.0 10.4 10.4 10.6 12.0 14.2 15.8 17.3 14.2  36
1912 18.2 17.7 17.1 15.0 12.7 11.4 10.5 11.2 13.0 15.0 15.8 17.6 14.6  37
1913 18.3 18.3 16.9 15.5 13.1 11.2 11.7 12.0 13.9 15.0 16.5 17.6 15.0  38
1914 18.9 18.8 17.6 15.3 13.5 12.2 12.0 12.1 13.5 15.2 16.0 17.9 15.2  40
1915 18.5 18.8 17.7 15.2 13.9 11.0 12.0 12.6 13.9 15.3 16.9 18.0 15.3  41
1916 18.8 18.4 16.8 15.9 13.8 10.6 10.5 12.2 13.8 15.4 16.8 17.5 15.0  41
1917 18.5 18.3 17.1 15.5 13.0 11.8 11.3 12.0 13.6 15.3 16.9 18.0 15.1  41
1918 18.3 18.1 17.1 15.5 12.6 11.5 10.6 11.7 13.1 15.2 16.5 18.3 14.9  41
1919 18.8 18.3 17.9 14.8 14.5 12.0 12.0 12.1 13.1 14.9 16.0 18.1 15.2  40
1920 18.8 18.4 17.5 16.1 13.6 11.5 11.3 12.6 13.9 15.1 16.7 18.0 15.3  40
1921 18.3 18.2 17.2 15.6 13.7 10.9 11.0 12.2 13.6 15.2 16.4 18.0 15.0  41
1922 18.5 18.3 17.2 15.6 13.5 11.1 12.3 12.5 14.1 14.8 16.7 17.8 15.2  42
1923 18.2 18.4 17.4 15.3 12.8 11.7 10.1 11.7 13.4 14.3 16.4 17.3 14.8  42
1924 18.4 17.9 17.5 15.1 12.8 11.9 10.9 11.6 13.3 15.2 16.1 17.9 14.9  42
1925 18.3 18.4 17.5 15.6 13.1 11.1 10.9 12.7 13.2 14.9 16.8 18.4 15.1  42
1926 18.7 18.9 17.8 15.3 13.2 12.3 11.0 12.8 13.6 15.0 16.7 18.1 15.3  42
1927 18.4 18.7 17.7 15.8 13.3 11.3 11.2 12.2 13.1 15.1 16.7 17.4 15.1  42
1928 18.2 18.0 17.4 15.8 13.1 11.1 11.3 12.2 13.7 15.2 16.8 17.3 15.0  42
1929 18.5 18.3 17.0 15.7 12.8 11.3 11.7 12.0 13.8 15.3 16.7 17.5 15.1  41
1930 18.5 18.4 17.2 15.6 13.4 12.2 10.6 11.3 13.7 14.6 16.9 18.2 15.1  40
1931 20.7 20.8 19.0 16.1 12.2 11.1 11.1 12.3 13.3 16.9 17.2 20.2 15.9  86
1932 21.3 20.5 19.3 16.7 13.1 11.7 12.5 11.7 14.5 16.7 19.1 19.9 16.4  86
1933 20.6 20.2 18.7 16.8 14.2 11.5 10.2 13.0 14.5 16.7 18.2 19.6 16.2  90
1934 21.6 19.5 18.8 15.4 13.8 11.9 11.5 12.8 13.9 16.0 17.8 19.5 16.0  89
1935 20.6 20.4 20.0 15.9 15.1 12.4 11.2 12.7 13.4 14.9 18.6 19.8 16.2  89
1936 20.7 20.3 19.1 16.9 13.9 12.0 12.1 11.8 14.4 16.7 18.3 20.2 16.4  89
1937 20.8 20.9 18.8 16.5 13.5 12.8 11.4 12.8 14.4 15.7 18.3 20.0 16.3  88
1938 19.9 20.2 18.4 15.4 14.1 11.9 11.4 11.6 14.3 16.6 18.4 20.5 16.1  88
1939 21.3 20.1 18.6 15.5 14.2 12.8 12.0 13.4 14.2 16.5 17.4 19.2 16.3  90
1940 20.6 20.5 18.8 16.5 15.0 12.9 12.9 12.3 14.5 15.6 18.1 20.0 16.5  91
1941 21.0 20.1 18.5 16.3 13.8 12.4 12.4 13.5 13.2 17.2 18.2 20.0 16.4 109
1942 21.5 20.9 18.7 16.6 13.3 10.8 10.6 12.9 14.7 16.3 19.1 20.7 16.3 109
1943 21.5 21.4 18.9 16.7 14.7 12.8 12.8 11.6 14.9 17.3 18.0 20.4 16.8 112
1944 20.5 21.0 19.4 16.8 14.7 12.8 12.5 13.7 16.2 17.3 18.6 21.1 17.1 111
1945 21.6 20.8 19.3 17.4 14.4 11.7 11.6 14.2 15.0 17.4 18.0 19.7 16.8 113
1946 20.1 20.7 18.6 17.0 14.4 11.8 11.7 13.1 15.1 16.5 18.8 19.5 16.4 113
1947 20.7 20.5 18.8 16.2 14.2 13.1 11.3 12.0 14.1 16.4 19.0 19.4 16.3 111
1948 21.2 20.4 18.3 16.4 14.2 12.8 11.6 11.6 15.1 16.6 18.6 21.4 16.5 107
1949 21.5 21.0 19.7 17.8 15.5 14.1 13.1 14.0 15.2 16.7 19.5 20.7 17.4 129
1950 21.3 21.8 20.3 18.1 16.1 13.5 13.7 14.6 15.4 17.2 19.1 20.7 17.6 136
1951 21.9 21.1 20.6 18.6 18.0 16.1 16.2 16.8 17.9 19.4 20.6 21.7 19.1 191
1952 23.1 22.6 22.1 18.8 17.7 14.0 15.5 16.3 17.5 19.0 20.4 21.6 19.1 194
1953 22.3 22.6 21.3 18.9 17.3 15.4 13.8 17.1 18.4 18.4 20.5 21.8 19.0 200
1954 22.0 22.1 21.2 18.9 16.0 14.7 14.2 15.5 16.7 18.5 20.5 21.4 18.5 201
1955 22.5 21.8 20.1 18.5 16.4 15.2 13.7 15.5 17.0 18.3 21.0 21.5 18.5 205
1956 21.3 21.4 20.9 18.1 15.7 14.9 15.4 15.8 17.5 19.1 20.5 21.7 18.5 208
1957 22.4 21.7 22.0 18.9 18.7 15.6 14.8 16.5 17.2 19.5 20.6 22.1 19.2 209
1958 22.8 22.4 21.7 19.6 17.0 16.5 17.0 15.7 18.2 20.1 20.9 21.5 19.4 213
1959 21.9 22.3 21.1 18.7 16.9 15.6 16.1 15.6 17.8 19.2 20.4 21.8 19.0 218
1960 22.8 22.6 21.4 19.2 16.7 15.8 15.3 16.3 17.8 19.4 20.7 21.9 19.2 218
1961 22.6 22.0 21.1 19.4 18.3 15.6 15.5 17.6 18.0 19.8 21.0 21.6 19.4 247
1962 21.8 21.9 21.3 19.0 17.1 15.8 14.6 16.7 18.4 19.2 21.3 22.1 19.1 246
1963 22.1 22.0 20.9 19.7 17.7 16.2 16.6 17.2 18.1 19.6 20.0 21.6 19.3 244
1964 22.3 21.9 20.6 19.4 17.8 14.9 14.9 16.2 17.8 18.9 19.8 20.8 18.8 242
1965 22.0 22.0 20.6 19.1 17.2 17.5 15.6 17.1 17.8 19.7 20.8 21.2 19.2 247
1966 22.1 21.1 20.8 19.4 17.3 16.4 15.8 15.8 17.3 19.0 20.5 21.2 18.9 247
1967 21.7 21.7 20.5 19.4 18.6 14.6 15.4 16.4 17.8 19.4 20.4 21.8 19.0 248
1968 21.8 21.5 20.4 18.1 16.3 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.3 19.1 21.3 21.4 18.8 251
1969 22.1 22.1 21.4 19.7 18.2 16.0 15.9 16.1 18.4 18.8 20.7 21.7 19.3 259
1970 21.9 22.1 20.9 19.9 17.4 15.6 15.3 15.9 17.8 18.8 19.7 21.1 18.9 262
1971 21.4 21.0 20.7 18.1 16.6 14.6 16.0 16.4 18.6 19.1 21.0 21.8 18.8 283
1972 22.2 22.0 20.8 19.2 18.8 16.9 16.6 16.4 18.4 19.3 20.8 22.1 19.5 284
1973 22.7 22.5 21.8 19.9 17.9 17.0 15.6 16.1 17.9 19.5 20.2 21.0 19.3 289
1974 21.8 21.2 20.8 19.1 17.6 16.0 16.1 16.4 17.6 19.1 20.7 21.2 19.0 288
1975 21.9 21.7 20.9 19.5 17.6 16.6 15.1 16.3 18.1 19.3 20.1 21.6 19.1 304
1976 21.8 21.4 20.0 19.3 18.2 15.9 15.8 16.3 18.0 19.8 20.8 21.6 19.1 299
1977 22.3 22.0 21.4 19.9 17.4 16.6 16.8 16.8 18.9 20.2 20.8 21.9 19.6 304
1978 22.1 22.0 21.5 19.4 17.8 16.2 17.1 16.3 18.8 20.0 21.0 22.0 19.5 300
1979 22.7 22.4 21.1 19.4 18.0 16.2 16.8 18.3 18.2 20.0 20.5 21.9 19.6 300
1980 22.6 22.2 22.2 20.1 18.5 16.2 15.8 16.9 17.9 19.9 20.4 22.1 19.6 301
1981 22.0 22.3 21.3 19.8 18.4 16.2 15.5 16.9 17.4 19.0 20.8 21.7 19.3 276
1982 22.1 21.3 20.9 19.4 17.8 15.6 15.3 16.7 17.9 19.4 20.5 22.2 19.1 232
1983 23.1 22.3 21.3 19.7 17.6 14.6 14.6 15.7 16.9 19.5 20.7 22.5 19.0 225
1984 22.4 22.4 20.8 18.3 16.7 14.7 15.1 15.1 17.5 20.0 20.4 21.2 18.7 226
1985 22.3 22.3 21.7 19.7 17.8 15.7 15.5 16.0 17.7 19.3 21.0 21.7 19.2 231
1986 22.5 21.6 20.2 19.5 17.1 15.5 15.1 16.6 17.5 19.1 20.4 22.0 18.9 229
1987 22.8 22.7 21.8 20.2 16.7 16.2 16.8 16.4 17.9 20.0 21.6 22.0 19.6 232
1988 22.9 22.6 22.3 19.5 16.6 15.1 14.7 16.4 17.5 19.1 21.6 22.9 19.3 238
1989 23.2 22.9 21.3 19.5 16.9 16.3 14.7 16.8 16.4 19.0 21.0 22.7 19.2 229
1990 22.9 22.2 21.6 19.5 17.0 15.3 17.6 17.3 17.7 19.8 21.6 21.7 19.5 213
1991 22.7 21.8 21.6 19.1 17.8 14.3 14.7 17.3 18.0 18.8 21.0 22.9 19.2 212
1992 23.2 24.3 24.0 18.9 16.6 14.8 15.7 16.0 15.5 18.5 19.5 22.0 19.1 195
1993 22.2 21.6 20.6 18.4 15.3 13.8 14.9 14.4 17.3 19.6 19.9 21.8 18.3 198
1994 22.4 21.6 20.3 18.4 16.7 18.1 14.6 16.1 19.6 18.2 20.2 22.4 19.1 203
1995 22.3 21.3 20.8 19.0 16.9 14.4 16.6 16.2 17.9 18.9 21.1 22.5 19.0 198
1996 22.1 21.8 20.9 19.3 18.0 14.7 15.2 17.6 17.2 19.4 20.6 21.5 19.0 203
1997 22.7 21.3 21.0 19.1 17.7 16.0 16.1 18.1 18.1 19.6 20.8 22.6 19.4 203
1998 22.2 21.7 20.6 19.7 17.7 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.5 20.5 21.8 21.6 19.4 201
1999 22.1 22.4 21.2 18.5 17.6 15.6 15.4 16.9 18.9 19.5 20.7 21.7 19.2 198
2000 23.0 22.2 20.5 19.5 17.8 15.9 14.2 16.5 17.0 19.9 20.4 22.1 19.1 196
2001 22.2 22.8 22.2 19.6 17.4 16.0 16.1 18.0 18.6 19.9 21.5 22.7 19.8 193
2002 22.9 22.2 21.6 19.7 17.6 14.8 15.4 17.3 18.7 20.1 21.4 22.1 19.5 186
2003 23.0 22.4 21.7 19.9 17.9 16.9 16.2 16.3 18.6 20.6 21.4 21.6 19.7 187
2004 23.2 22.5 22.2 20.2 16.1 16.0 15.3 17.3 18.7 20.3 21.9 22.7 19.7 182
2005 23.4 23.2 21.8 19.6 17.9 16.3 16.3 17.5 18.1 20.1 21.5 22.2 19.8 181
2006 23.2 23.1 22.0 20.2 17.5 16.9 18.2 17.4 18.7 21.3 21.3 23.1 20.2 181
2007 23.2 22.9 22.2 20.3 16.8 15.9 15.0 15.8 19.5 20.1 20.7 22.0 19.5 174
2008 22.9 22.8 21.6 19.3 17.2 15.7 17.0 17.2 18.9 20.7 22.5 23.0 19.9 172
     22.0 21.7 20.7 18.8 16.9 15.2 15.0 15.9 17.3 18.8 20.2 21.4 18.7
     21.2 20.9 19.9 17.7 15.5 13.8 13.6 14.5 16.0 17.7 19.2 20.6 17.6
 
For Country Code 3

Here we again see that averaging divergent series simply hides the widespread stability of most of the countries of a region in the error caused by the thermometer location changes in a single large country; and that in thermometers, as in real estate, it’s all about “location location location”…

In Conclusion

What I see in all this is that as long as the “composite instrument” of the collection of thermometers is fairly stable, you can get something useful from it. When the parts start moving, not so much… What I said under the New Zealand posting bears repeating:

And just how do you calibrate this composite instrument with all these comings, going, deletions, migrations, and instrument replacements and recalibration / recorrections? When wars, equipment change, and siting changes dominate the signal, just how do you propose to tease out of it that which is perhaps not even there?

We see general stability in the record and we also see that the major determiners by far of what changes an “average of temperatures” are latitude and thermometer count. Everything else is completely swamped by those two things. There is the potential for an “altitude” signal as well, but that will be for a future investigation.

I see no way to extract useful information about “Global Climate Change” from a temperature series with this much noise in the signal via any kind of averaging process. IMHO, the most reasonable approach is to “stabilize the instrument” by taking individual thermometers (or at most, very closely matched thermometers) and making a trend line for them. Then looking at the collection of those trend lines, individually or in aggregates, to see if there is a composite trend, or perhaps regions of co-trend and anti-trend due to global oscillations like the PDO. (We did see under both the New Zealand and the Antarctic postings that there are regions that seem to move in opposition to the North American temperatures, with a relative drop in 1998 instead of a peak).

This is very helpful to me, both for my effort to characterize GIStemp and its failings and for my ideas about how to produce a more usable and valid “SmithTemp” series.

But it also continues to point out the sheer folly of a “Global Average Temperature” via any method that average temperatures, then looks for trends. All you will find is the trends dominated by thermometer location and number changes.

Yet more confirmation that the whole “Global Warming” issue is settling down to an error in where the parenthesis are placed:

Average(dT/dt) works.
d(average of T)/dt does not.

GIStemp, and all the other serial averagers are guilty of using the second of those two approaches. Yes, they dress it up in lots of “reference station method” and “optimal interpolation” and similar camouflage; but in the end, they still have their parenthesis in the wrong place…