Bermuda Bahama come on pretty mama

Gotta Love Those Islands

Well, if we have a bunch of islands in the same Gulf Stream sending water from the Atlantic and the Caribbean over toward Europe, you would expect their trends to be similar. Now it’s true that the Bermuda Islands are closer to the Sargasso Sea than the Caribbean Sea and are only on the edge of the Gulf Stream, and it is equally true that Jamaica is on the “Warmer Side” from Cuba and away from the Gulf Stream. But these are all nice warm places and they are all sitting in this giant bath tub of warm water together. At least the trends ought to match.

How About The Bermuda Islands?

Well, The Bermuda Islands come up a little short. (Oh, quit groaning, you KNEW it had to be coming, just be glad I got it out of the way early ;-). The data cut off in 1995. Part of The Great Dying of Thermometers. Wonder where it’s “filled-in” from now?

Bermuda showing a flat trend

Bermuda Islands With a Flat Trend

Not a whole lot of trend here either. It’s a 2.5 C range with a gentle downward slope. As is often the case, the oldest readings are a bit more volatile, but it’s a nice long series that just ends too soon. It would be interesting to see if they have CLIMAT reports available that are just not quite making it into the GHCN data set. I’m sure they still have an airport and people go there all the time, so METARS are certainly available.

OK, well, lets head from Bermuda back over to Jamaica and see what’s it looks like. Whatever it is, it ought to be more or less like that one. The place just doesn’t change climate much.

Jamaica – a rolling gate with a swing to it

So what have we got? Jamaica. I loved the place. Doctors Cove is to die for. Had a room in an old house / hotel with a picture “window” that had no glass in it overlooking the beach. 86 F pretty much all the time day or night, and the water was the same. Plants grew so fast you would swear the vines around the window were bigger at the end of the week than the start. And the food…. But I digress…

Jamaica -  A Bit of a Rolling Motion

Jamaica - A Bit of a Rolling Motion

OK, the scale on this is fine grained so you can see some ‘action’. That’s all of about 2.5 C variation over the decades. In looking at the temperature data we find the “usual suspects” of Duplicate Number changes ( I’m swapping over to using the NCDC name rather than Mod Flag, that I think is from the GIStemp code). There are also a couple of thermometers that ‘drop out’ around the late ’60s / early ’70s. The “count” of thermometers jumps from 2 to 4 in one year, 5 the next for a few years, then back down to 2. Then we start playing with the Duplicate Numbers again in about 1988-1990. Here is a little peek at them.

Jamaica - Thermometers By Group

Jamaica - Thermometers By Group

So we can see that there was a gentle downward drift, until someone got way crazy and stuck thermometers all over the place, then yanked a bunch of them out. That caused a really big spike in the temperature anomalies. Then lately we’ve gotten a bit of a drift but not much as the Duplicate Number flags change again.

The Bahamas

Well, nice little string of Islands. Stable water all around them. A bit of the Caribbean mixing with some Sargasso as it heads for the Gulf Stream. Just the place for the same thing we’ve seen already. But may as well stick it in.. :

Bahamas with a Hockey Stick

Bahamas with a Hockey Stick

Speaking of “sticking it”, looks like we got ourselves a Hockey Stick. Now when you look at the data, there are a LOT of Duplicate Number flags again. There are a couple of different thermometers that come and go too. But at the end of the day, the “Hockey Stick” shows up when the older thermometers and Duplicate Number flags are dropped and they unmask this one lone record, and we get the stick. The other records drop over a period of time, so I’ve chosen to make this segment graph with a ‘break’ a bit late in the series of drops. I didn’t want to be accused of picking cherries in Bahamas (they need winter chill to make fruit anyway ;-) but here are what the trends look like with a break in the segments just after all the thermometer dropping:

Bahamas Islands segmented at the thermometer dropout

Bahamas Islands segmented at the thermometer dropout

We get two very different trends out of those two segments. I think we need a new name for this “uncover the newer Duplicate Number flag by dropping old thermometers” process, er, excuse me “trick” ( I do want to sound like a Professional Climate Scientists so I’d better learn to user their jargon properly.) I think I’ll call it an “UN-splice”. Prior to the drop we had both sets together and this thermometer was masked by the others, as we UN-splice them, this trend can then dominate. I think the UN-splice trick is rather clever, don’t you?

And just for Ruhroh who liked it so much the last time, here is the “Hair Graph” showing all the individual months data. Again we notice the ‘peak clipping’ with excessive clipping of the down peaks during the transition; though in this case we have the very interesting return of the down spikes lately. It’s that “bald batch” below zero sort of between 1990 and 1996 or so. Almost as though someone thought they had enough “trick” in the bag and didn’t want to overcook it…

Bahamas Hair graph of monthly dT values

Bahamas Hair graph of monthly dT values

If you would like to know what’s causing Global Warming, check out the thermometer changes in The Bahamas. It isn’t CO2.

Conclusions

Well, we can add The Bermuda Islands to the Carbon-Guilt-Free Club. All residents of those Islands may resume driving, BBQ ing, running party boats, fishing and generally having a wonderful time. Further, as a new Official Carbon-Guilt Policy: All tourists headed to those Islands get a Carbon-Guilt Free Pass for the duration. Clearly you have no impact on Global Warming when you are there.

For folks headed to Jamaica, you get a 70% discount on your Carbon-Guilt. They have played the Duplicate Number flag game, but only half heartedly, and they’ve ended up more or less back where they started. Furthermore, most of it came out of some thermometer changes when folks were playing around with them a lot in the ’60s and ’70s and, well, a lot of folks who went to Jamaica then don’t remember exactly what they did, so just kind of cut them some slack, OK? Heck, someone probably tried to light one up when they ran out of ganja one weekend… So feel at ease spending time on the beach, in the wonderful restaurants, and just touring the beautiful parts of the islands. However, the fuel for the flight in, well, you will just have to suck it up and accept that part of the Carbon-Guilt Tax. You are expected to leave 20% tips for the staff in Jamaica as pennance for as long as you can remember what hotel room you are staying in.

However, all folks destined for a visit to The Bahamas, I’m sorry to report, you must pay your full Carbon-Guilt Tax and feel miserable for the whole time. I’ll be establishing facilities for you to pay me to assuage your Carbon-Guilt shortly. Until then, Hit the Tip Jar, go to Bermuda instead, or stay home. Further, upon arrival in The Bahamas, all food is to be eaten as close to raw as possible (think Sushi or Salad ;-) and travel is to be by those wonderful horse drawn cabs they have. Hey, you don’t HAVE to be completely miserable just because you feel guilty …

I’ll be working my way around the world in further postings, so if you are looking for other types of Carbon-Guilt Free vacations, there are other options. As a teaser, I’ll just mention that Italy is probably a Carbon-Guilt Free destination as is Greece.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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13 Responses to Bermuda Bahama come on pretty mama

  1. vjones says:

    EM,
    Here’s a link to the GISS graph for Nassau airport (Bahamas):

    Nassau Airpor   25.1 N 77.5 W 423780730003 134,000 1880 - 2010

    GIStemp used to homogenise Nassau quite badly: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_vYBt7hixAMU/Sv308Jg25JI/AAAAAAAAAGE/fvX1YTGz4iE/s1600-h/Nassau.png
    but not any more it seems :-)

    REPLY:[ Interesting. Looks like they stopped pulling the past down to cold quite so much... But I still think I like my way better. I don't change the data... I just listen to what they say... -E.M.Smith ]

  2. pyromancer76 says:

    I thoroughly enjoy traveling around the world wih you, E.M. Smith. You find the safest places for guilt-free play and stick it to those lying hockey sticks. Always looking forward to tomorrow’s destination.

    A little devastating humor sure helps to pop the grandiose narcissisism of AGW pseudo-scientists (and exposes their longing for totalitarian-type “tricks”).

  3. pyromancer76 says:

    By the way, is there any time out for play with the market on this trip? Will the bulls continue running? My readings say we (U.S.) are due for a rude awakening — financial disaster hidden and/or put off for the future. Of course, I don’t want to burden you!

    REPLY: [ No problem. I've been feeling particularly guilty for ignoring it, and somewhat light in the pocket book too - it is how I make my lunch money after all. But between Kaiser and some folks I care about pushing me to do the Spherical Cows posting, I had to let it slide for a bit longer than I like. ( In between there I also was swapping computers for my stock picker program so that needs to 're-sync' with the data source too). And I was feeling particularly driven to get dT/dt done as I was pretty sure what it would find; but just HAD to know. Well, it's working now and producing nice results. So I can "cruise" a tiny bit just wandering the world with it and maybe doing a bit of polish... (Oh yeah, and I got to install and learn Open Office and graphics in there somewhere too... busy me ;-) Well, at this point I think I've got the graphics thing down 'good enough' for a while, and I've got software and hardware stability again, and I've got the trolls spanked enough that they are going elsewhere. A few deep breaths, some rosé, and yeah, time to re-engage markets. Probably Saturday night. -E.M.Smith ]

  4. Bookmarked https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/03/12/bermuda-bahama-come-on-pretty-mama/. Thank you for sharing. Definitely worth the time away from my coursework.

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  6. magellan says:

    Stockholm I hear is a beautiful place.
    http://hidethedecline.eu/pages/posts/hadcrut-another-warm-error—stockholm-temperatures-165.php

    REPLY: [ Very nice graph! Yet another slow roast in the oven ;-) -E. M. Smith ]

  7. Tilde Guillemet says:

    Using the delta T and dT/year, does the final difference between start temperature and end temperature (dT/yr) have the same value as final measured temperature – initial measured temperature?

    The answer appears to me to be either ‘yes’ – that is the processing of dT/year does not introduce a bias, or ‘no’ in which case the processing may be suspect due to rounding and truncation errors.

    REPLY: [ This is all in "anomalies" so not really temperatures any more. But what I think you are asking is "If you take the final dT and add/subtract it from the start value, do you get the end value?" That would be an interesting experiment (best done on the monthly data) and is exactly the kind of thing to do in the QA process. (That I have not finished yet, which is part of why I've not published all the code yet.) It is a "possible" in that the temps are integers and FORTRAN tends to truncate on integer math some times.

    The actual anomalies are done as a simple subtraction of INTEGERS, so no problem there, but the monthly average could have a truncate issue. The dT/yr is calculated using the method vetted in the earlier absolute temperature reports as 'most valid' and is done as type REAL casting early on. The relevant line of code is:

    tmpavg(m) = (itmptot(m)/incount(m))/10.

    which take an integer running total of those integer temps in 1/10 C and divides them by the integer count of valid items (thus having a truncation risk) then the divide by "10." does a cast to real and the result is put into the real variable for temperature average. I'll try it with a other variations and see what happens. (time passes...) From that point on, everything is in "real" data type. So basically if we had 5 thermometers for a place we would add up their integer temps in 1/10 C and divide by 5 (truncating in the 1/100 C place) and then convert to reals in whole degrees C. Since the 1/100 C place is fictional in the data anyway this is mostly playing in the error bands of the data, but I'll give it a (convert to real) wrapper and see if anything changes. IIRC there are about a dozen to 15 thermometers in Germany for most of time IIRC, so you have about 15/500 C of "risk" as a first rough estimate. (If I've done all this 'off the cuff with first cup of coffee still being drunk "analysis" correctly... a BIG IF!) OK, a first quick test run with catsing to real before the divide makes no big difference.

    Any error would accumulate as you go further backward in time. Here is one of the changed lines, for 1850:

    diff Temps.rM617.SAVE.yrs.dT Temps.rM617.yrs.dT | grep 1850
    - 1850 -0.11 -0.16 27 -4.9 0.5 -1.6 1.2 -1.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 -1.3 -1.7 2.8 2.9
    +1850 0.01 -0.15 27 -5.0 0.5 -1.6 1.3 -1.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 -1.4 -1.8 2.8 3.0

    So we have a 1/10 C change after over 150 years of accumulated changes and that was toward making the trend closer to NILL.

    The changed code is:

    tmpavg(m) = (itmptot(m)/(incount(m)*10.))

    That causes a 'cast to real' of the count as the 1/10 place is shifted, which then causes a 'cast to real' of the divide into the total. Yeah, I'd rewrite it more obviously as explicit casts to real in production code, but for an experiment it was a quick way to get an implicit casting to real... I don't like having so much riding on one "." and where it is in the division formula...

    I need to run right now, but I'll do a more in depth check later. If anything will show up it ought to be in the larger sets like the whole of North America and I ran the test on Germany only where the small thermometer count limits risk. In any case, I'm happy to do the 'cast to real to avoid truncating the 1/100 place' even though the report rounds to 1/10. - E.M.Smith ]

  8. A C Osborn says:

    I just love these sessions, especially Chiefio’s sense of humour.

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  10. bob says:

    Nice article. Since I am color blind and don’t pretend to read the graphs, does that mean I get a pass on the carbon guilt thing?

    REPLY:[ And folks wonder why I put in blocks of numbers, you don't have to see colors to read a table of numbers... But back on Carbon-Guilt: I'm giving each country a verbal Guilt Rating as well, so no, no free pass... You do, however, get absolution for any country where the only evidence is in colors ;-) The really good news is that there are whole continents where you can visit Carbon-Guilt Free, for easier decision making. North America in total is a Carbon-Guilt Free Zone when measured from about 1750 (posting 'soon') and even when you include the unbelievably strong "warming" in Canada of about 8 C in the bundle(!) so there's no need to live in Carbon-Guilt ;-) -E.M.Smith ]

  11. harrywr2 says:

    You may be interested in this history of the thermometers in Alaska put together by the Univerity of Alaska Fairbanks.

    http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/history/History.html

    Especially, the Point Barrow history. Considering it’s the one causing the Arctic to melt.

    http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/history/Arctic/Barrow.html
    “Site continuity reasonable, but changes in summer exposure to ocean, and albedo changes due to growth of town, moves, snow clearance, dirt on snow, etc. could result in false long-term trends.”

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  13. M. Simon says:

    Uh. Shouldn’t it be guilt trip? And guilt tripping? And far out man? And a little “Too Much”.

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