Didn’t Get The Memo – Korea, French Polynesia

So, who “Didn’t Get The Memo” on Global Warming?

Well, quite a few countries. More than I can practically put into a single posting with graphs (and I’d not want to be accused of ONLY looking at the flat places, so I’ll need to sprinkle the ‘flat’ graphs in with the ‘warming’ graphs over time to be ‘fair and balanced’). We will look at graphs for three countries in this posting.

So some countries didn’t get the memo about Global Warming and are just cruising along on their merry old non-warming way. Oddly, this happens in countries that are sitting right next to other countries that did get the memo.

We will look at graphs for 3 such places in this posting. But first, there is another “case” to cover.

Ghost Countries

These countries report no temperatures at all. None. Not a one.

These are IN the GHCN v2.country.codes file, so the NCDC folks who compile the “Global” Historic Climate Network data set know they exist and kindof sortof maybe someday intended to gather data, maybe… but never quite got around to it. So, IMHO, these amnesiac countries get a complete Free Ride on the Carbon-Guilt Index. I’ll simply list them here, since there isn’t much more to say about them.

Country Code, Name, Notes:

124 Libya (18 active stations 46 – 73 F per wunderground)

164 Melilla ( and with an annotation of “Spain” as sovereign. 58.1 F per underground)

166 Rwanda ( 70 F, partly cloudy, calm. Per http://www.wunderground.com )

167 Swaziland ( 77 F, cloudy, chance of rain per wunderground… )

235 Maldives ( 82 F, scattered clouds, calm winds. Wow, nice. Per wundergound)

313 Uruguay ( 16 active 66-84 F. Bella Union looks nice 84 and clear 23% humidity.)
426 Antigua & Barbuda ( 82, nice…)

428 British Virgin Islands ( 83 F and Clear winds SSE at 7 mph… God, I wanna go..)

430 Dominica ( 3 stations. 81-84 F. Pick one. Wind only 4 mph at Melville Hall.

436 Saint Lucia ( took me a while, had to search on Castries to find out they use a “.” in St. Lucia … 84 F but forecast 91 F by Friday… Looks wonderful

437 Saint Vincent & The Grenadines ( 87 F. Almost exactly what Jamaica was 30 years ago when… )

439 Turks & Caicos ( They have a dedicated weather site: http://www.turksandcaicosweather.com/ yet Wunderground use TI for Turks Islands… and seemed a bit odd. They have 77 F showing. Seems a bit cool. But they do say it’s mostly cloudy and with a 3000 ft. deck. So maybe that’s why it’s 4 C cooler than I’d expect.)

507 Papua New Guinea ( Was driving me nuts searching. Looks like Wunderground use “NG” for Papua New Guinea. It’s 78 F 87% humidity in Port Moresby.)
(Not like Papua NG is hot or in a stable equatorial location or anything…)

522 Brunei (79 F but 94% Humidity… and mostly cloudy. I’ll take St. Lucia…)

Ok, so these Ghost Countries are undoubtedly impossible to communicate with, located in far away places with no modern technology. Temperature data simply unavailable. Even with large budgets and the world economy in the balance. Heck, they probably don’t even follow NCDC procedures. Yeah, that’s it… The temperature data are unavailable due to “Procedural Issues”. ;-)

While were on the topic of Tropical Islands…

French Polynesia

This is the “Hair Graph” for French Polynesia. (Just because the actual temperature graphs are dreadfully dull…) This graph is the change of temperature month to same month a year later (or the next time valid data show up in that month). All 12 months. I’ve added a “thermometer count” but scaled it to fit in the almost no change range of the dT/yr. Now you can see when temperatures do anything interesting at the moment the thermometer count is changed. ( Note that the vertical graduations are in 1/2 C so this “action” on this chart all fits in about 1.5 C of total range…)

French Polynesia "monthly changes of temperature" by years

French Polynesia (click for larger version). dT by month year/over-year.

There is a tiny compression of the “low peaks” about The Great Dying of Thermometers in the early ’90s. We’ve gotten almost 1/4 C of “lift” out of it… we’re ALMOST back to the zero line of 1950 or so… Maybe, in a few more centuries, or with a bit more playing with the Duplicate Number ( I’m converting over to calling these “Duplicate Number” rather than Mod Flags – in keeping with NCDC docs) we could get back to the +1 C of the 1930’s and ’40s…. Maybe.

The most interesting thing to me about this graph is the 1990-92 compression of range of the monthly data during the global mod flag changes. Less than 1 C range for a few years. Now THAT’s “Climate Change” I can believe in!

The -1.5 C plummet in 1951 is interesting too, but seems to happen right as 4 thermometers are added. Guess “instrument change” does matter…

But, with a total lifetime negative slope to the temperature dT, and with a temperature range of nearly nothing (something that you could calibrate a planet by): The French Polynesian Islands are granted NEGATIVE Carbon-Guilt Units. Each Dollar, Euro, or whatever currency, spent vacationing in French Polynesia entitles the spender to expend an equivalent number on Carbon-Guilt Rich destinations. Enjoy and “Bon Chance!”. Canadians, but especially French Canadians, are expected to make a best effort to spend winters in French Polynesia. Since the Canadian numbers are dreadful, and especially so in winter, it is your obligation to rack up as many negative Carbon-Guilt units as possible by wintering in French Polynesia. Do it “for the children” ;-)

On To The Koreas

Well this is interesting. They share a peninsula together and have the same water all around them. First up, the D.P.R. Korea:

Dem. Peoples Rep. of Korea

Dem. Peoples Rep. of Korea

What can I say. They manage to get a little lift out of The Great Dying of Thermometers in 1991. Up until that point they just look to have a cyclical swing around the -1 C line (I’d guess with the PDO changes). And they have gotten back to the zero line where they were in 1921. There is a tiny bit of rise to the trend line, but not nearly what you would expect from all the work that has undoubtedly gone into getting the data and giving it regular massages.

Next, the Rep. Korea:

Republic Of Korea

The “cumulative change of temperature dT” line and it’s trend line are almost completely buried behind the “hair” of month to month changes. Despite a massive effort and the dropping of 50 or so thermometer records. Nothing. At least in DPR Korea we got some hope of a future rise out of the Duplicate Number flag changes. Here? Heck, it’s as flat as you could ever imagine. About all you have to look at of interest is the strong compression of range in the (roughly) 1991 – 2001 interval. It might be interesting to see what thermometers changed then, but clearly somebody needs to give back the expense report money for those Korea excursions. “Dead Flat” is just not delivering the goods expected from all that thermometer change ;-)

OK, the Korea’s get a pass on Carbon-Guilt. but with that odd volatility and unpredictable swings of 1 C in DPR Korea, we need to keep an eye on them ;-)

Conclusion

We ought to scrap the CRU Crew and put the NCDC staff out to pasture in the Carolinas. Nasa GISS can be sent for Chinese Take-Out and move the office while they are gone. Leave no forwarding address. Just put a few thermometers in French Polynesia and let the physics of all that surrounding water average the energy balance of the planet for you. I will volunteer to guard it and keep the environment in pristine condition. No salary will be needed, just a nice cottage on the nearby grounds, with an ocean view, and an expense account for household goods, food, and medical benefits… Honest. To my dying day… Oh, and satellite TV / Internet would be nice too ;-)

P.S. “Bordeaux” and “Brie” are “household goods” ;-)

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
This entry was posted in AGW Science and Background, dT/dt, Favorites, NCDC - GHCN Issues and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink.

10 Responses to Didn’t Get The Memo – Korea, French Polynesia

  1. RK says:

    Chiefio,

    Are you getting any interests from career climate scientists? If the basic temperature records (before and after all the normalizations) for individual countries are up for grabs, then the foundation of this science is not solid and everything that builds on top is on shaky ground as well.

    Thank you for continuing to dig into this. I hope other researchers would pick up your work and build on it.

    RK

    REPLY: [ Most of the ‘interest’ I get from “career climate scientists” is negative. The “forensics” approach is by definition going to be ‘different’ and going to ‘assume it is broken when in doubt’ and that causes them some irritation ;-) There have been a couple of other folks pick up some parts and run with it, but they, too, are from “outside the tent”. The dT/dt method is very straight forward (and some of the code and explanation are posted in comments under the Germany posting, IIRC) and anyone can do this. It is the most pure kind of anomaly process I could devise… -E.M.Smith ]

  2. Dave N says:

    Here’s land areas for a couple of the “missing” countries:

    Libya: 1,759,541 sq km
    PNG: 462,840 sq km

    Wunderground reports 17 cities in Libya that have available weather data. PNG has 1, but there are neighbouring stations in Sentani and Merauke in Indonesia, right next door. GISS shows a stop point of 1987 for Sentani.

    REPLY: [ One of my favorite sayings: “Why? Don’t ask why… down that path lies insanity and ruin. -E.M.Smith” so good luck trying to figure out a motivation in all this… ]

    I’m completely baffled as to why NCDC use no data from Libya or PNG. Port Moresby is around 800km from Merauke, and it looks like the next closest active (GISS) station is more than double that.

    If I were attempting to gauge climatic changes, I’d be including a much better coverage, because I’d be interested in how different regions fare as well as on a global scale.

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  5. E.M.Smith says:

    As an example of where a straight temperature average is just as useful as an anomaly process, it’s hard to beat French Polynesia. The temperature is just about 25 C more or less year round ( 24 to 26 range) pretty much wherever you stick a thermometer. Since a straight line at 25.5 C +/- 1 is kind of boring, here is the whole temperature report.

    Thermometer Records, Average of Monthly Data and Yearly Average
    by Year Across Month, with a count of thermometer records in that year
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------
    YEAR  JAN  FEB  MAR  APR  MAY  JUN JULY  AUG SEPT  OCT  NOV  DEC  YR COUNT
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------
    1935 26.4 26.3 26.9 26.8 26.0 25.4 25.4 25.2 25.1 26.4 26.8 26.2 26.1    1
    1936 26.5 26.9 26.6 26.7 25.9 25.7 24.8 24.7 25.3 25.1 25.7 26.1 25.8    1
    1937 26.5 27.0 26.9 26.9 25.9 25.5 25.8 25.4 25.9 26.8 27.2 27.2 26.4    1
    1938 27.2 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.0 25.4 25.5 25.4 25.8 27.1 26.2 26.8 26.4    1
    1939 27.4 26.6 27.3 26.8 26.3 25.6 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.6 27.0 27.2 26.4    1
    1940 27.9 27.4 28.2 28.5 27.1 26.6 25.0 25.5 25.5 26.3 27.7 27.5 26.9    1
    1941 27.3 27.9 28.3 27.4 27.0 25.8 25.0 25.3 25.9 26.5 27.2 27.3 26.7    1
    1942 27.8 28.2 28.4 27.5 26.5 26.0 24.9 24.7 25.7 26.4 27.0 26.9 26.7    1
    1943 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.0 26.7 25.5 25.2 25.6 25.5 26.4 27.0 26.7 26.5    1
    1944 26.5 27.0 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.2 24.9 24.8 25.7 25.3 26.3 26.6 26.3    1
    1945 27.5 27.5 28.0 27.1 26.7 26.5 25.6 25.8 25.8 27.5 27.9 27.4 26.9    1
    1946 26.9 27.3 27.8 27.4 26.1 25.9 25.0 25.9 24.9 26.0 26.9 27.3 26.4    1
    1947 27.7 27.5 28.4 28.0 27.2 26.5 25.7 25.3 26.0 25.8 27.0 27.5 26.9    1
    1948 27.3 27.3 27.6 27.0 26.5 25.9 25.3-99.0 24.4 25.1 25.4 26.0 26.2    1
    1949 26.3 26.3 26.7 27.3 26.1 25.7 25.0 24.1 24.9 25.6 25.2 25.8 25.8    1
    1950 25.7 25.9 25.9 26.0 24.8 24.8 24.5 24.5 24.6 25.3 25.8 25.7 25.3    1
    1951 25.6 26.1 26.3 25.6 25.1 23.3 23.1 23.2 23.4 23.9 25.3 26.2 24.8    4
    1952 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.2 25.2 24.5 22.9 23.3 23.7 24.2 25.2 25.5 24.9    5
    1953 25.9 26.6 26.8 25.9 24.2 23.3 22.7 22.8 23.4 24.4 25.1 25.2 24.7    5
    1954 26.1 26.4 26.1 25.3 24.6 23.7 23.5 23.2 23.4 24.3 24.3 25.7 24.7    5
    1955 25.8 26.1 26.0 25.6 24.3 23.8 23.7 22.8 23.2 24.3 24.8 25.7 24.7    6
    1956 25.4 25.7 25.8 25.1 24.4 23.9 23.0 23.4 23.1 24.4 24.4 25.5 24.5    6
    1957 25.9 26.3 26.3 26.2 24.3 24.1 23.7 23.1 23.3 24.0 25.3 25.9 24.9    6
    1958 25.9 26.1 26.4 26.1 24.6 24.2 24.0 23.2 23.9 24.1 25.2 25.1 24.9    6
    1959 26.2 26.3 26.6 26.3 25.6 24.6 23.8 23.1 23.6 24.0 25.0 26.1 25.1    8
    1960 26.4 26.2 26.4 26.8 25.8 23.1 22.8 23.0 23.7 24.4 25.1 25.8 25.0    8
    1961 25.9 26.4 26.0 26.0 25.0 23.8 23.8 23.3 23.6 24.3 25.0 25.5 24.9    7
    1962 26.1 26.2 26.0 25.6 25.1 23.9 23.6 23.1 23.9 24.1 24.9 25.1 24.8    7
    1963 25.9 26.4 26.4 26.0 25.0 23.9 23.3 23.5 23.5 24.5 25.1 25.4 24.9    7
    1964 26.3 26.6 26.3 26.0 24.8 23.9 23.6 23.3 23.5 24.2 24.3 25.1 24.8    7
    1965 25.5 25.9 26.1 26.1 25.1 23.9 23.6 23.3 23.8 24.7 25.0 25.5 24.9    7
    1966 25.8 26.1 26.4 26.2 25.6 23.9 23.8 23.6 23.9 24.4 25.0 25.5 25.0   10
    1967 26.2 26.2 26.5 26.1 24.9 24.3 23.6 22.8 23.4 23.8 24.5 25.0 24.8   10
    1968 25.8 25.9 25.8 25.4 24.6 23.2 23.4 23.4 23.4 24.2 25.0 26.0 24.7   10
    1969 26.5 26.4 27.0 26.5 25.6 24.8 23.9 23.5 23.4 24.3 25.3 26.3 25.3   11
    1970 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.2 25.2 24.5 23.6 23.9 24.4 24.3 25.5 25.6 25.2   11
    1971 25.7 25.9 26.0 25.7 24.9 23.7 23.4 23.1 23.2 24.1 24.7 25.1 24.6   12
    1972 26.3 26.8 26.5 26.4 25.5 24.1 23.6 23.5 23.0 23.6 24.3 26.1 25.0   12
    1973 26.6 26.8 27.1 26.5 25.6 23.8 23.4 23.2 23.7 24.1 25.2 25.8 25.1   12
    1974 26.1 26.2 25.9 25.8 24.9 23.9 23.4 22.6 22.9 23.7 24.5 25.0 24.6   12
    1975 25.6 26.2 26.4 25.9 24.6 24.0 23.3 22.6 23.2 23.6 24.4 25.1 24.6   11
    1976 25.5 25.9 26.2 25.8 25.0 23.9 23.1 22.5 23.0 24.1 25.3 25.9 24.7   12
    1977 26.3 27.4 27.5 26.0 25.3 23.7 23.3 23.0 23.6 24.1 24.8 25.2 25.0   12
    1978 26.3 26.4 26.8 26.2 25.3 24.2 23.2 23.1 23.7 23.6 24.4 25.4 24.9   12
    1979 25.9 26.7 26.7 26.2 24.8 24.3 23.5 23.0 23.4 23.8 24.8 25.1 24.9   12
    1980 26.5 26.5 26.8 26.0 25.5 24.1 23.7 23.4 23.2 24.1 24.8 26.0 25.1   12
    1981 26.3 26.5 26.0 25.9 24.9 23.8 23.9 22.6 23.6 24.3 25.1 25.7 24.9   12
    1982 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.1 25.0 24.1 22.9 23.0 22.8 23.6 24.3 25.1 24.8   11
    1983 26.4 27.0 26.5 25.4 24.8 23.6 23.2 23.2 23.7 24.6 24.7 25.7 24.9   11
    1984 26.2 27.0 26.5 26.4 25.0 23.8 23.1 22.8 23.5 24.5 24.8 25.0 24.9   11
    1985 26.1 26.7 26.7 26.1 25.3 23.7 22.9 23.2 23.5 23.5 25.1 25.9 24.9   11
    1986 26.4 26.1 26.3 26.1 24.9 24.1 23.9 23.3 23.6 24.2 25.2 25.6 25.0   11
    1987 26.4 27.0 27.0 26.2 25.6 23.9 23.1 22.0 23.5 23.6 25.0 25.3 24.9   10
    1988 26.5 26.5 26.8 26.2 25.0 24.0 23.3 23.6 23.8 24.3 25.1 25.7 25.1   10
    1989 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.4 25.1 23.9 23.7 23.6 23.6 24.1 24.2 25.2 24.9   10
    1990 26.4 26.6 26.5 26.1 25.1 24.2 23.9 23.6 23.6 24.3 24.6 25.4 25.0   10
    1991 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.1 25.4 24.2 23.4 23.7 23.3 24.2 25.2 25.6 25.1   10
    1992 26.2 26.3 26.7 26.2 25.5 23.9 23.9 23.9 24.2 24.2 24.8 25.4 25.1   10
    1993 26.4 26.1 27.1 26.0 24.7 23.7 23.4 23.5 23.6 24.1 24.8 26.2 25.0   10
    1994 26.7 27.1 27.5 26.4 25.3 24.3 23.4 23.3 23.5 24.3 25.0 25.9 25.2   10
    1995 26.5 26.8 27.1 26.1 25.3 24.4 23.8 23.9 23.8 24.7 25.3 25.4 25.3   10
    1996 26.5 26.3 26.8 26.0 25.4 24.7 23.6 23.5 22.9 24.0 25.4 25.5 25.1   10
    1997 26.4 26.6 26.5 26.3 25.3 23.7 23.3 22.7 24.3 24.2 25.2 25.8 25.0   10
    1998 26.4 26.3 26.3 25.3 24.8 23.7 23.3 23.2 23.2-99.0 25.0 25.7 24.8    7
    1999 26.4 26.6 26.6 26.0 25.4 24.6 23.6 23.1 22.9 23.8 24.6 25.6 24.9    7
    2000 26.5 26.7 26.4 25.5 24.7 23.5 23.0 22.9 23.2 26.3 24.9 25.1 24.9    7
    2001 26.5 26.5 26.9 26.1 24.4 24.0 23.3 22.5 23.2 23.4 24.6 25.0 24.7    7
    2002 26.5 27.0 27.0 26.1 24.6 23.9 23.1 23.2 23.3 24.6 25.7 25.7 25.1    8
    2003 26.3 26.4 26.5 25.9 24.9 23.7 23.3 23.5 23.5 23.9 24.8 25.9 24.9    7
    2004 26.3 26.9 26.6 25.9 24.9 23.5 22.4 22.8 23.2 23.9 24.7 26.0 24.8    7
    2005 26.6 26.2 26.3 25.7 23.8 23.3 23.4 22.7 23.3 23.2 25.1 25.8 24.6    7
    2006 26.5 26.9 27.3 26.2 25.2 24.1 23.5 22.6 23.2 23.9 24.5 25.6 25.0    7
    2007 26.4 26.7 26.8 26.0 25.2 24.4 22.9 23.6 23.4 23.9 24.7 24.6 24.9    7
    2008 25.9 26.2 26.3 25.6 24.9 23.6 23.0 22.9 23.1 24.2 25.1 25.6 24.7    7
    2009 26.2 27.1 27.1 26.5 24.7 24.2 23.5 22.9 23.6 23.8 24.9-99.0 25.0    7
    AA   26.2 26.5 26.6 26.1 25.1 24.1 23.5 23.3 23.6 24.2 24.9 25.6 25.0
    Ad   26.4 26.6 26.7 26.3 25.3 24.3 23.8 23.6 23.9 24.5 25.3 25.8 25.2
     
    For Country Code 528
     

    The Korea temperature reports are a bit more “textured” but quite consistent with what the anomaly reports show. Though a whole lot colder ;-)

  6. Bruce of Newcastle says:

    Likewise I was struck by a similar long dataset tropical island – Willis Island out in the Coral Sea.

    http://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/2010/02/05/giss-manipulates-climate-data-in-mackay/
    (see last graph before Ken’s conclusion)

    80 years of 26.3 C, looks like a great place to go live and get away from the climatologist flame attacks.

  7. oldtimer says:

    Thank you for doing this analysis. Your site is a regular stop on my daily web browsing. Your comments are very revealing.

    I have posted comments elsewhere (in the UK) with links to this site, but pointing out that it is work in progress. References to actual recorded temperatures, as opposed to anomalies and other climate jargon, are easier for people to understand.

    At some stage do you intend to bring the results of your work together in a paper for a wider audience? It would help provide more impact to what you are doing.

    REPLY: { Thanks! I’ve thought about it. There is, in fact, a rough structure here for a booklet of sorts. I’m doing “research” in the daily postings. Then I pull it together with an ‘aggregator posting’. These then get turned into an “overview fo the common person’ posting (that unfortunately come along about one every 4 months… too long). The idea being to plough through the detail at the tech / geek level then turn it into something anyone can ‘get’. Unfortunately, this swapping from technobabble to non-tech often just leave part of the audience perplexed… No good way out of it, though. With the eventual purpose being to polish it all up “at the end” and make something publishable (in one venue or another). But we’ll have to see how that idea eventually shakes out ;-) Also, my latest series of tools and postings IS anomaly based, but I’m trying to explain what it is as I go along, so hopefully it’s still pretty ‘followable’. But, IMHO, it’s not the anonmaly process that’s the hard / confounding bit. It’s all the adjusting, infilling, etc. -E.M.Smith ]

  8. Tom Bakewell says:

    Gosh, just for grins and whenever you have the ever precious time, how about looking at Maracaibo in western VZ?.

    It’s been a real city for quite a long time, and maybe the Jesuits had a weather station there?

    Respectfully, Tom Bakewell

    REPLY: [ My notes say Venezuela is FLAT on the anomaly report. The machine where I run the reports is doing something else right now so I can’t run a Maracaibo specific anomaly report (just yet), but inspection of the station data sure looks flat to me:

    Snow-Book:~/Desktop/GHCN/GHCN28Dec09 chiefio$ grep MARACIABO v2.temperature.inv
    31480407000 MARACAIBO-LA 10.57 -71.73 65 8U 652HIxxCO10A 4TROP. SAVANNA C

    Snow-Book:~/Desktop/GHCN/GHCN28Dec09 chiefio$ grep ^31480407000 v2.mean
    3148040700001950 256 268 268 273 274 278 282 276 287 271 273 273
    3148040700001951 266 265 270 285 283 288 288 287 287 289 285 278
    3148040700001952 268 271 276 283 290 293 288 291 291 286 284 272
    3148040700001953 269 264 270 283 285 292 292 295 289 284 295 279
    3148040700001954 262 267 274 276 286 286 281 287 273 268 272 263
    3148040700001955 261 263 260 265 272 272 271-9999 269 254 257 255
    3148040700001956-9999 259 270 280 282 283 281 282 282 274 274 273
    3148040700001957 258 260 268 270 275 287 288 302 289 291 263 263
    3148040700001958 274 278 282 285 288 289 295 287 295 288-9999 277
    3148040700001959 269 267 270 282 283 286 289 289 291 284 278 282
    3148040700001960 272 272 269 277 288 285 287 285 280 275 276 264
    3148040700001961 266 266 270 278 286 289 283 289 285 279 273 276
    3148040700001962 283 269 271 278 293-9999 292 286 290 285 279 279
    3148040700001963 270 276 271 270 279 292 289 292 292 287 280 276
    3148040700001964 269 271 272 276 282 280 281 283 280 276 279 263
    3148040700001965 261 266 263 275 275 277 287 292 286 287 280 282
    3148040700001966 278 273 275 279 284 281 287 291 289 278 273 269
    3148040700001967 268 269 269 274 283 283 281 288 285 282 283 283
    3148040700001968 263 279 271 276 288 282 285 287 282 282 284 279
    3148040700001969 276 274 288 289 298 296 294 283 286 275 270 267
    3148040700001970 266 268-9999 280 290-9999 282 280 276 267 262 268
    3148040700001971 258 263 268 277 272 282 280 278 274 268 271 259
    3148040700001972 261 265 271 271 276 287 290 292 289 273 282 279
    3148040700001973 277 277-9999 284 286 281 285 284 271 270 264 257
    3148040700001974 258 263 267 272 268 280 284 282 267 275 263 273
    3148040700001975 260-9999 271 274 277 284 277 283-9999 266 261 246
    3148040700001976 258 254 263 272 279 279 280 283 283 267 275 267
    3148040700001977 267 270 272 280 278 285 289-9999 301 281 275 271
    3148040700001978 266 276 278 277 284 283 282 285 283 275 279 270
    3148040700001979 264 274-9999 275 278 275 280 282 270 270 266 261
    3148040700001980 263 267 273 279 292 285 285 285 282 273 270 269
    3148040700001981 272 273 279 270 268 270 277 276 270 266-9999 264
    3148040700001982 262 267 271 274 273 281 284 299 284 276 264 270
    3148040700001983 272 275 288 282 283 289 289 289 288 278 283 275
    3148040700001984 269 273 275 282 284 289 281 284 277 273 268 266
    3148040700001985 259 268 271 275 268 281 284 282 284 273 265-9999
    3148040700001986 261 261 271 274 280 283 291 291 281 268 270-9999
    3148040700001987-9999-9999 273-9999 281-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999
    3148040700001988 270 264 269 279 284 280 284 266 282 275 264 256
    3148040700001989 253 255 281 277 282 284 290 291-9999-9999 286-9999
    3148040700001990-9999 265-9999 279 282-9999 291-9999 291 273-9999 273
    3148040700011951 266 265 270 285 283 288 288 287 287 289 285 278
    3148040700011952 268 271 276 283 290 293 288 291 291 286 284 272
    3148040700011953 269 264 270 283 285 292 292 295 289 284 282 272
    3148040700011954 262 267 274 276 286 286 281 287 285 270 272 264
    3148040700011955 261 263 260 257 272 272 271-9999 270 254 257 255
    3148040700011956-9999 260 270 281 284 283 281 282 282 274 274 265
    3148040700011957 258 260 268 270 276 287 285 293 290 280 283 276
    3148040700011958 275 275 285 286 290 288 287 287 298 289 287 279
    3148040700011959 270 268 272 283 284 287 291 289 292 284 278 283
    3148040700011960 272 272 269 277 288 285 288 285 280 275 277 264
    3148040700011961 267 266 270 278 285 286 283 290 286 280 274 277
    3148040700011962 274 270 272 279 283 281 293 287 291 286 279 280
    3148040700011963 271 277 271 281 280 293 289 293 293 288 281 281
    3148040700011964 269 273 273 277 283 280 281 284 281 277 279 263
    3148040700011965 262 267 275 277 276 279 288 292 287 288 281 283
    3148040700011966 279 273 276 281 284 282 288 291 290 277 273 271
    3148040700011967 271 270 269 274 283 284 282 288 285 282 282 274
    3148040700011968 265 269 272 277 282 283 287 289 283 282 285 280
    3148040700011969 269 275 289 290 298 296 295 283 290 276 272 286
    3148040700011970 266 267 276 282 284 286 282 279 275 267 262 260
    3148040700011971 258 263 268 277 272 282 280 278 274 268 271 259
    3148040700011972 261 265 271 271 276 287 290 292 289 273 282 279
    3148040700011973 277 277-9999 284 286 282 285 284 271 270 264 257
    3148040700011974 258 263 267 272 268 280 284 282 267 275 263 273
    3148040700011975 260 262 271 274 277 284 277 283-9999 266 261 246
    3148040700011976 258 254 263 272 279 279 280 283 283 267 275-9999
    3148040700011977 267 270 272 280 278 285 289-9999 301 281 275 271
    3148040700011978 266 276 278 277 284 283 282 285 283 275 279 270
    3148040700011979 264 274-9999 275 278 275 280 282 270 270 266 261
    3148040700011980 263 267 273 279 292 285 285 285 282 273 270 269
    3148040700011981 272 273 279 270 268 270 277 276 270 266-9999 264
    3148040700011982 262 267 271 274 273 281 284 299 284 276 264 270
    3148040700011983 272 275 288 282 283 289 289 289 288 278 283 275
    3148040700011984 269 273 275 282 284 289 281 284 277 273 268 266
    3148040700011985 259 268 271 275 268 281 284 282 277 273 265-9999
    3148040700011986 261 261 271 274 280 283 301 291 281-9999-9999-9999
    3148040700011987-9999-9999-9999-9999 281-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999
    3148040700011988 257 264 269 279 284 280 284 266 282 275 264 256
    3148040700011989 253 255 281-9999 282-9999 290 291-9999-9999-9999-9999
    3148040700011990-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999 281-9999
    3148040700011991 270-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999
    3148040700021971 258 263 268 275 272 282 280 278 274 268 271 266
    3148040700021972 261 264 271 272 276 284 291 288 289 282 282 279
    3148040700021973 277 277 286 285 287 283 290 285 271 270 264 257
    3148040700021974 258 263 267 272 268 280 284 282 267 265 263 262
    3148040700021975 260 262 271 274 277 284 277 283 271 266 261 246
    3148040700021976 249 254 263 272 279 279 280 283 283 267 275 267
    3148040700021977 267 270 272 280 277 285 289 291 301 281 275 271
    3148040700021978 266 276 279 277 284 283 282 284 283 275 279 269
    3148040700021979 264 273 277 275 278 275 280 282 270 269 266 261
    3148040700021980 263 267 273 279 283 285 285 285 282 273 271 269
    3148040700031986-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999 281-9999-9999-9999
    3148040700031987-9999-9999-9999-9999 281-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999
    3148040700031988 257 264 269 279 284 280 284 266 282 275 264 256
    3148040700031989 253 255 281-9999 282-9999 290 291-9999-9999-9999-9999
    3148040700031990-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999 281-9999
    3148040700031991 270-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999
    3148040700031992-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999 280-9999-9999-9999-9999 260
    3148040700031993-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999-9999 289-9999 275 285-9999 264
    3148040700031994 268-9999-9999-9999-9999 284 284 292 289 280 276 270
    3148040700031995 273 272 266 287 288 290 289 277 286 274 278 274
    3148040700031996 270 279 288 291 293 291 288 287 284 279 260 272
    3148040700031997 275 280 273 285 297-9999 305 306 301-9999 293 286
    3148040700031998 284 281 287 292 296-9999 296 287-9999-9999-9999-9999
    3148040700031999 266 267 278 280 284 286 286 282 272 267 267 260
    3148040700032000-9999 263 267 278 281 287 283 290 276 278 271 267
    3148040700032001 264-9999 264 280 287 286 289 299 291 281 272 278
    3148040700032002 275 271 277 280 287 286 293 298 290 279 286 277
    3148040700032003 275 277-9999 285 292 284 291 296 286 275 276 271
    3148040700032004 268 274-9999 285-9999 290 289 292 278 272 266 267
    3148040700032005 268 265 286 289 283 288 294 288 291 272 267 264
    3148040700032006 266 268 274 275 277 284 289 290 289 279 276 275
    3148040700032007 271 274 276 281 284 291 293 279-9999 271-9999-9999

    Looking at the “Comma Separated Values” file for all of Venezuela with columns of: year, dT, dT/yr, and thermometer count it does not look as flat as my notes imply. We’re down about 1 C in 1951 when there are enough thermometers to matter and hold there to about 1990 when there is the usually “warm bump” on adjustment changes of some sort and we warm about 2/3 C . It’s all kind of down in the weeds… A bit of a Cherry pick, but we’re -0.34 now and we were -0.26 in 1800… not exactly a lot of warming, but some rolling / wandering back and forth.

    2009, -0.34, 0.34, 15
    2008, -0.19, -0.15, 15
    2007, -0.17, -0.02, 16
    2006, -0.04, -0.12, 16
    2005, -0.16, 0.12, 16
    2004, 0.07, -0.23, 16
    2003, -0.13, 0.21, 16
    2002, -0.26, 0.13, 16
    2001, -0.72, 0.46, 16
    2000, -0.68, -0.04, 16
    1999, 0.26, -0.93, 16
    1998, -0.37, 0.62, 16
    1997, -0.51, 0.14, 16
    1996, -0.45, -0.06, 16
    1995, -0.57, 0.12, 16
    1994, -0.53, -0.03, 16
    1993, -0.57, 0.03, 16
    1992, -0.57, 0.00, 14
    1991, -0.61, 0.04, 14
    1990, -0.97, 0.36, 16
    1989, -0.66, -0.31, 18
    1988, -0.33, -0.33, 18
    1987, -0.70, 0.37, 16
    1986, -0.81, 0.11, 12
    1985, -0.57, -0.24, 11
    1984, 0.04, -0.61, 11
    1983, -0.48, 0.52, 11
    1982, -0.49, 0.01, 11
    1981, -0.28, -0.21, 17
    1980, -0.39, 0.11, 17
    1979, -0.50, 0.11, 17
    1978, -0.51, 0.01, 17
    1977, -1.12, 0.61, 17
    1976, -1.02, -0.09, 17
    1975, -1.06, 0.03, 17
    1974, -0.55, -0.51, 18
    1973, -0.80, 0.25, 18
    1972, -1.22, 0.42, 18
    1971, -0.67, -0.54, 18
    1970, -0.29, -0.38, 18
    1969, -0.89, 0.60, 18
    1968, -0.97, 0.08, 18
    1967, -0.58, -0.38, 18
    1966, -0.81, 0.22, 18
    1965, -0.72, -0.08, 18
    1964, -0.61, -0.12, 18
    1963, -0.73, 0.12, 17
    1962, -0.64, -0.09, 17
    1961, -0.54, -0.10, 17
    1960, -0.59, 0.05, 17
    1959, -0.12, -0.48, 17
    1958, -0.68, 0.57, 17
    1957, -1.06, 0.38, 15
    1956, -1.10, 0.04, 15
    1955, -1.02, -0.08, 15
    1954, -0.62, -0.40, 15
    1953, -0.47, -0.14, 14
    1952, -0.70, 0.23, 14
    1951, -0.97, 0.28, 14
    1950, -0.92, -0.06, 7
    1949, -0.87, -0.05, 1
    1948, -0.62, -0.25, 1
    1947, -1.07, 0.45, 3
    1946, -1.04, -0.02, 4
    1945, -0.87, -0.17, 4
    1944, -1.03, 0.16, 4
    1943, -0.44, -0.59, 4
    1942, -0.37, -0.08, 3
    1941, -0.41, 0.04, 4
    1940, -0.94, 0.53, 3
    1939, -1.32, 0.38, 2
    1938, -0.61, -0.71, 2
    1937, -0.76, 0.15, 2
    1936, -1.02, 0.27, 2
    1935, -0.61, -0.42, 2
    1934, -1.02, 0.41, 2
    1933, -0.57, -0.44, 2
    1932, -1.57, 1.00, 1
    1931, -2.82, 1.25, 1
    1930, -2.26, -0.57, 1
    1929, -2.14, -0.12, 2
    1928, -2.39, 0.25, 2
    1927, -1.63, -0.76, 2
    1926, -2.38, 0.74, 2
    1925, -2.32, -0.06, 2
    1924, -2.65, 0.33, 2
    1923, -2.73, 0.08, 2
    1922, -2.94, 0.21, 2
    1921, -2.57, -0.37, 2
    1920, -2.36, -0.22, 1
    1919, -2.55, 0.19, 1
    1918, -2.73, 0.18, 2
    1917, -2.16, -0.57, 2
    1916, -1.68, -0.47, 2
    1915, -1.92, 0.24, 2
    1914, -2.44, 0.52, 1
    1913, -2.16, -0.28, 1
    1912, -2.30, 0.14, 1
    1911, -1.77, -0.52, 1
    1910, -1.97, 0.19, 1
    1909, -1.94, -0.03, 1
    1908, -2.46, 0.52, 1
    1907, -1.92, -0.54, 1
    1906, -1.88, -0.04, 1
    1905, -2.14, 0.27, 1
    1904, -1.66, -0.48, 1
    1903, -1.47, -0.19, 1
    1902, -1.08, -0.39, 1
    1901, -0.10, -0.98, 1
    1900, -0.26, 0.16, 1
    1899, -0.91, 0.65, 1
    1898, -0.41, -0.50, 1
    1897, -0.44, 0.03, 1
    1896, -0.60, 0.16, 1
    1895, -1.43, 0.83, 1
    1894, -1.64, 0.22, 1
    1893, -1.39, -0.25, 1
    1892, -1.13, -0.26, 1

    (I know, it ought to be a graph, but it’s pretty good for “what’s laying around” and “when that machine is working on stock stuff and not available”… Hey, gotta eat… so I’ve got to do the stock stuff some time or other… ) -E.M.Smith ]

  9. GregO says:

    Cheifio,

    Thanks for all your painstaking work on the temperature data. I’m new to all this AGW stuff and only got interested in it after reading about Climategate late last year. At the time I couldn’t help but think “has anybody looked at the actual thermometer data? How reliable is it? What kind of error bars are appropriate?” I mean data is data, right? And we are talking about thermometers, right?

    At that time little did I suspect the magnitude of said checking. Thanks again.

    REPLY: [ Well, I’ve only been ‘at it’ for about 3 or 4 years, and only about 2 of them with any intensity. (The first two were mostly asking “What?!” and buying books… ) But there were just TOO many loose ends and just TOO much “magic hand waving” and, frankly, obvious B.S. and my BS-O-Meter was just clanging too loud to ignore.

    So I decided to dive into the code of GIStemp, that eventually lead to “data diving” in the NOAA / NCDC dumpster. And what I found was truly horrifying. Data so crappy I wouldn’t use it to plan a BBQ, forget the world economy; and with obvious “hockey stick” fudge fulcrums. Along with a GIStemp code that was clearly more about obfuscation than clear answers… So I’ve gone and started “rolling my own”… With an absolute focus on The Data and with methods so simple you could do them in a spreadsheet and not get lost. I think the result has been “enlightening”. And my BS-O-Meter is getting a well deserved rest ;-)

    BTW, I encourage folks to test everything I do for themselves. For example, the dT/dt method is “dirt simple” and could be done in a spreadsheet if desired ( I think – I’m not a spreadsheet wizard but I’ve seen folks do this kind of stuff). It doesn’t need a program language. [ I’m only using FORTRAN for it as an accident of having gone down that road to disassemble GIStemp….]

    So you could take the temperature data for a country, and just do the June(n) – June(n-1) down through the sheet. (Skipping ‘missing data flags’ of -9999 which I think you can do in a spreadsheet?) and make my “anomaly file”. (Though I start in the past and go forward in time making the file). Then just average the 12 monthly anomalies in any year to get dT/yr. And make a running total of them, from the present to the past, for dT. Then graph it. So anyone who wants to can do this for themselves and / or “check my homework”.

    Basically, I subscribe to the mantra that “It isn’t about ME, it’s all about the DATA; and what they say when you ask them politely, then listen…” And anyone can do that.
    -E.M. Smith ]

  10. e.m.smith says:

    @Tom Bakewell:

    I’ve gone ahead and put up “South America” as a stub posting with some of the graphs and a bit of text in it. Venezuela is one of them.

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/03/17/south-america-hockey-in-the-jungle/

    What with “requests” coming in for particular countries, I’ve decided to abandon the idea of going in-depth continent by continent over the course of a couple of months and instead do it as a “stub” with the “big chunks”, then flesh them out over time with more graphs.

    So we’ll be having North and South America along with The Pacific Basin all being ‘written’ as they are live with sporadic changes from day to day.

    That will be a bit disconcerting to the ‘sound bite’ generation who expects an email notify when a new 30 second article pops up, never to be looked at again. Oh well…

    So the structure of the postings will be an overview graph of the region, a list of my interpretation of the printed tables (subject to revision when the graphs are actually made), a “poster child” or VIP country for each of “Hockey Stick” and “Flat” categories, and my commentary as it unfolds.

    After N.&S. America and Pacific are mostly done, I’ll look at adding Asia, then Europe and Africa. Somewhere along the line I’ll slide in the Antarctica (Region 7) and “Ships at Sea” (Region 8) graphs. Ships at Sea are flat, BTW…

    Hope this process doesn’t rattle folks too much, but it will make it easier to “take requests” in that it will be about 20 elapsed minutes to do a graphs and stuff it in for any particular country where the posting is already up. (Or up to an hour if the country has something very interesting that needs ‘playing with the graph’ to see well – like dividing it into 5 segments or having A/B with a neighbor…)

    The good news is that I’ve now got things set up so that the “stock stuff” and the “GIStemp stuff” can run on one box (they do not interfere with each other) while the “graphing” and the “posting / web presence” can run elsewhere. No more need to be rebooting depending on what I want to do :-)

    The only downside being that I now have 5 computers in my living room 8-{ but not to worry, the old “WhiteBox x486” is now ready to be retired thanks to a box donated by A.Watts.

    Heck, I’m perilously close to only needing 2 boxes to make all this stuff work… One Linux for GIStemp (with bigendian abilities) that will also run the stock stuff, and one for ‘everything else’ with emphasis on human / web interface stuff. If I ever get GIStemp ported to a more modern Linux, I might even be able to drop to just one big Linux box… Oh, if only I had a big Oil Company Budget to buy a large Sun Workstation … but I digress… (Note to self: First toss existing old crap “white boxes” from 1980’s before getting more hardware envy. Assure present resources are being used well before lusting for more ;-)

    -E.M.Smith

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