OK, Splitting Graphs from Analysis
What I’m going to do is put up the graphs for a region, like the Pacific Basin, and then have follow on posting that link back to selected sets of the graphs for looking at particular issues. This will let folks who want to “cruise the graphs” do it fast, but also avoid turning a regional “graph rich posting” that is already large into a completely unwieldy giant thing.
So this posting is “substantially complete”. There are one or two minor countries to add, but they often are just a reprise of one of the ones below. So a couple of “Singapore Hockey Sticks” and a couple of “Flats” and a few that are truncated (one has only 9 years data…). They will be added “for completion” as I’m looking for something to do with the hands while the brain works on contemplating another question ;-) They won’t add much to what you can ‘figure out’ by inspection of the charts that are here.
As an “issue” is observed, I’ll put up a “smaller bite” posting about that issue which will reference this archive of graphs. So, for example, you can expect at some point a Singapore Hockey Stick vs (something else nearby not a hockey stick) posting.
Feel free to post comments here about anything you see in these graphs, but don’t be surprised if, over time, “issues” get covered in another posting as well.
Pacific Basin Overall
Here we have a nice sleepy Pacific, then we get a Hockey Stick right as The Great Dying of Thermometers happens. When we were looking at the raw temperature averages, there was not much going on in the average of the smaller islands, but there was a pretty good “warming signal” in Australia and New Zealand. We also saw a lot of change “by Latitude” and “by Altitude” and “by Airport Flag”. So how much you want to bet we find The Australian Hockey League? And maybe a B League in New Zealand?
Australia, New Zealand, Belau
New Zealand too?
Yeah, I ought to have put in a separate segment for that 1940’s Pivot when thermometers start changing, then you would see the cooling early segment, then the rise with thermometer change, the Step Up and then The Ramp in the next two segments, but by now you folks ought to be figuring this stuff out on your own ;-)
And a medium sized island further north?
My God! The Pacific is Just On Fire!!!
Singapore – Splicing a Blade on The Shaft
OK, what do you do when your stick is just got no blade? Splice on a new one!
Notice when the thermometer count doubles? At that time the monthly anomaly volatility goes WAY down (as the pluses of one thermometer offset the minuses of the other), then when the cooling one ‘goes away’ we have The Reveal and, PRESTO! A Stellar Hockey Stick! (Though even then we get a double dip in 1990 with the Magic Sauce that is fairly consistently applied to the data then. Just look at how clean and sharp the heel of that Pivot is!
Playing With Your Instruments In Fiji
When you team isn’t winning, you can always change the players on the field…
This is just fascinating. Look at how much the thermometer count changes. Bobbing and weaving all over the place. That first segment really ought to be divided into 2 or 3. Notice the later part of that first segment where it pivots down just at the start of the 1951 – 1980 GIStemp baseline period? Then a bit later we have something that I’ve seen as hints before. A 1970 era thermometer change (there is a hint of a ‘bullseye” where the monthly dT lines converge at near zero volatility in about 1970). This happens right when we get a small pop up as the baseline interval is coming to an end (but with a negative slope… can’t keep that for long). Then we have the 1980 Jump (with both some adds and some drops) followed by the 1990 ramp, but ending in more thermometer loss.
Now the second thing that’s interesting about this is that Fiji is smack dab in the middle of a bunch of other Island groups. Surrounded by Samoa, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Solomon Norfolk and Cook Islands are a bit further out, beyond the typical ‘reach’ of the ‘homogenizing” process, but perhaps reachable via an “in-fill” to nearby that then gets used for a grid / box adjustment later. It’s just about exactly where you would want to be for the maximum number of other island groups to influence. And all around it are Islands not warming that could “use a little help”. So just drop some data or truncate a record and you will get “in-fill” giving a lift… Nicely done, very nicely done. (But would have been better without so much time playing with the instruments. I know, it’s hard to make a hockey stick out of nothing, and as we saw for French Polynesia, you had nothing to work with…)
Talk about your flat stability (At least after that first plunge on adding a second thermometer.)
Somehow I think the French have it right… Though I do have to note that we plunge right into the GIStemp baseline period, rising out of it, if only a little, at the end. Maybe 1/3 a degree C? Though a peek at Christmas Island leaves me hoping for a Christmas Present…
Not So Much – The Other Islands
Somehow I think Instrument Issues matter…
Federated States of Micronesia
Hey Hey! Ho Ho! Cooling Islands Have To GO!
Quite a dip. No wonder the record is so short…
Wallis and Futuna (France)
Go FRANCE! Look at that dip.
Some Interesting Cases
Now that’s interesting…
Looking at Samoa by segments relative to the baseline is interesting. We do get the mid-70’s dip, but it isn’t a very deep one. We then exit, and go not very far, then drop Samoa from the record. To be filled in from Fiji, with a very different shape…
On the other side of Fiji is Vanuatu, also rather a bit flatter… despite thermometer change, and it too will benefit from a bit of “lift” via homogenizing…
That leaves Tuvalu, Tonga, and New Caledonia as ‘near Fiji” to look at. One of these is a single decade of data ( Tonga with 9 years):
1972 -0.83 0.11 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 0 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 1973 -0.73 0.19 1 1.3 0.5 0.6 0 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.5 -0.6 0.5 -0.5 -1.2 1974 -0.53 -0.47 1 -1.6 -0.5 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.3 0.3 0.4 -0.5 -1 -0.4 0.5 1975 -1 0.04 1 0.1 0 0.7 0.4 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 1 -0.5 -0.3 -0.9 1976 -0.96 -0.16 1 -0.5 -0.8 -2 -0.5 0.1 -0.6 0 -0.3 0 0.8 0.7 1.2 1977 -1.12 0.75 1 1.7 2.2 2.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.6 -0.2 0.2 1978 -0.37 -0.19 1 -0.3 -0.5 0.4 0.5 -0.2 -0.4 -1.2 -0.5 0 -0.1 0 0 1979 -0.56 -0.23 1 -0.8 -0.2 -1 -0.7 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.9 -0.5 -0.2 0.3 -0.3 1980 -0.79 0.79 1 0.5 0.2 1 1.2 1.4 1.1 0.5 0 1.6 0.8 0.6 0.6
So 9 years of going from nowhere to nowhere with a lot of negative anomalies
While Tuvalu gets a 1990 “Pivot” that’s a beauty:
And even The French in New Caledonia can not resist forever… and get a 1 – 3 – 2 thermometer whammy. Starting with one, dropping, adding 2 to neutralize the drop, then removing one for a nice warming rise and a 1990 bit of a pivot.
Clearly the Philippines suffer from a lot of thermometer change. I especially like the way it stabilizes right after all the change stops…
The Rest of the Pacific Basin
Coral Sea Islands
This is the Agana WSMO Station at 13.55 N 144.83 W
Including the OTHER Agana station, the NWSO at 13.48 N 144.80 W
Now look at those two Agana Stations for just a moment. Gee, different….
And the surrounding North Mariana Islands