Asia – A Gaggle of Graphs

Overview

In general, it looks to me like there are some flat graphs (often truncated in about 1980 or 1990) and there are a bunch of “Hockey Sticks”. Then there are a few “”little Dippers” (IIRC Myanmar looked like a constructed “dipper” with the thermometer count a mirror image of the temperature anomalies…) But there is just not the consistent steady relentless rise one would expect from a CO2 driven process. There is a whole lot of what looks like a “step function” or “pivot” centered on the decade change points; and that is far more consistent with people and process changes…

Ok, Just the Graphs, Ma’am…

In keeping with the “graphs faster, comment in bites later” I’m going to toss up the Asia graphs here then later do some analysis postings pointing back here. I’ll sprinkle in a few comments, and folks are at liberty to point out anything they see in the graphs, but I’m not going to be spending a lot of time here on exhaustive A / B analysis of “interesting things” that can take me off to analysis land for a day or two; until after I’ve got most of the graphs “up”.

Asia – A Giant Hockey Stick

Well, after a volatile start with one thermometer, Asia settles into a long fairly flat “Stick” then we get the blade at the end. Clearly not at all what one would expect from smoothly accumulating CO2. For some reason, I keep thing that someone has “Jumped the Shark” at the end there…

Asia Hair Graph

The Korea’s

We already saw this in an earlier posting, so it’s quick to put them here, too:

Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea

Dem. Peoples Rep. of Korea

Republic of Korea

Japan Too

Japan monthly dT and cumulative temperature change by Count segment

China – The Asian Dragon

A very diverse place, and probably better handled as “coastal” vs “desert” vs “mountain” but for now, we’ll stay with the “by Country” process. I was going to put a trend line on that long middle segment, then noticed that it runs right along the -2C line since about 1870, so decided not to re-do the whole graph just for that. But notice that after that “start of time” one thermometer settles down, we’re essentially flat until they get a 1992 “bullseye” and Pivot.

It would probably be more dramatic (and more accurate) to do the graph from the 1990 bottom, but I wanted to graph just “The Reveal” where we have the exact bullseye in the “Hair” of monthly dT values rather than from “The Splice” start a bit earlier. And again we notice the startling absence of cold going excursions in the monthly data during The Splice and The Reveal. That, IMHO, is your “Smoking Howitzer”… Track that down, and you find someone just waiting to be nailed to the wall with a Stud Gun. (What’s a Stud Gun? I”ve got this GREAT air nailer gun for driving 16 penny nails… a full 3 1/2 inches long, for nailing studs. It is Very Heavy, but works great… and most extremities are less than 3 inches thick. Especially “as nailed”… Made a fence with it. BANG! nailed BANG! nailed. Much quicker than a hammer… though it tends to split out 1 inch lumber if you don’t get the air pressure way down… but I digress… )

Not exactly “Industrial Revolution Evil Western Capitalist CO2” behaviour…

China Hair Graph 1993 Segments

Nearly China

Macau

Macau Hair Graph with Segments

Taiwan

Taiwan Hair Graph with Segments

Mongolia

Where despite recent reports of hundreds of thousands of head of cattle lost to freezing and folks fleeing the countryside for warmth in the cities we have a reputed 4 C of “warming”… Please note that the volatility on this graph is extreme. We have + 12 C ad -12 C and I’ve still clipped a couple of (about 13 C ) spikes in each direction). Of particular interest is the “bullseye” of zero volatility in about 1993 AND the one in about 1937 along with the dramatic lower going peak clipping during the years on each side.

Mongolia Hair Graph segments by age and thermometer count

Kazakhstan

Just a bit more to the West. I made the scale on the vertical the same as Mongolia, even though a couple of 15 and one 20 ish monthly peaks get clipped (though you can see from the convergence of the two lines in-out which those are). LOTS of volatility in Central Asia. So when it goes to near zero as it does in about 1995 you know “something is up” in the data… Those negative peak clips from about 1988 to 2000 are just space aliens in drag…

Technically, Kazakhstan is part of Europe in the temperature numbering system, but it’s mostly in Asia so I’ve included it here as well.

Kazakhstan Hair Graph Segmented at 1990

The OtherStans

Afghanistan

Afghanistan Hair Graph

Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyzstan_Hair Graph with Segments

Pakistan

Pakistan Hair Grapy Segments

Tajikistan

Tajikistan Hair Graph

Turkmenistan

Turkmenistan Hair Graph

Uzbeckistan

Uzbekistan Hair Graph by Segments

The Russian Asia Sector

Russians were always great Hockey Players. A little lift from dropping thermometers but not much (the technique I use ought ot dampen it a lot) but mann, what a blade on that that stick!

Russian Asia Hair Graph with 1990 Pivot

India

In some ways this is a candidate for a “favorite graph”. It’s a very long time series. In the ‘Way Back Times’ we see a jump from 1 to 4 thermometers, then back down again, and we see the dT line move with the thermometer change. A wonderful example of why, even in anomaly based processing, instrument change matters. A LOT. Period. Memorize it. Tattoo it on every “climate scientist” on Something TBD… Mr. McGuire taught me that in High School Chemistry. “Don’t screw around with the instruments while the test is running!” (A bit of a paraphrase … Mr. McGuire could be, er, “colorful”… I think we were doing a ‘heat of fusion” experiment and I wanted to check the thermometer and was reaching a “paw” towards it… thus resulting in a “few choice words” about “paws” and “science” being mutually exclusive… ;-) and something about “bright people making the worst idiots” IIRC… )

Then a long stable period, and finally a feature we’re all to familiar with by now, the “1990 Pivot”.

India Hair Graph - Segment by time period

South East Asia and Near India

Maldives Islands have NIL data

Looks like a great place to put a thermometer to me…

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka Hair Graph by Segments

Bangladesh

Bangladesh Hair Graph with Segments

Cambodia

Cambodia Hair Graph

Laos

Laos Hair Graph with Segments

Myanmar

Myanmar Hair Graph with Segments

Nepal

Nepal Hair Graph by Segments

Thailand

Thailand Hair Graph by Segments

Vietnam

Vietnam Hair Graph segments on dropouts

The Middle East

Saudi Arabia

A nice “Pivot” but why bother? It was already rising…

Saudi Arabia Hair Chart with Segments

Bahrain

Not quite the same… I can only guess that since it was flat since the baseline it “needed a little lift”, but got a dropping slope in the process? Expect Bahrain to have “thermometer change” in the future…

Bahrain Hair Graph Segments

UAE

Next to both of those is the United Arab Emirates.

UAE Hair Graph with Segments

Iran – Across the pond

Ok, guys, you need to find the guy who “Diddled Iran” and take him out back for a talking-to. This is just SOooo Ham Handed… Look you can’t have dead flat, drop to the baseline, Ramp out, and Pivot and not have somebody notice… Work on

Iran Hair Graph with Blatant Segments

it, oK? This is just TOO easy. Give me a bit of a challenge, please…

Iraq

Iraq Hair Graph

Kuwait

Kuwait Hair Graph

Oman

Oman Hair Graph by Segments

Qatar

Qatar Hair Graph

Yemen

Yemen Hair Graph

Conclusions Per Asia

With that much variation, it is NOT a CO2 story, it is a local instrumentation and change of processing story.

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