A Fascinating Set
So here I was expecting “not much of interest” out of this group. Figuring that they would be more alike than different and that after the first one or two it would be more of the ‘same old same old’. A “lift” in 1980 and The Pivot in 1990 (as we’ve seen in many other countries) with the occasional “flat” or “truncated”. Well, the truth was much more complex.
The biggest surprise was a ln trend line fit to Sweden. Could it be, one wonders, that CO2 does have an effect? Just not as advertised? Could it be that in the tropical places water vapor dominates, so CO2 has no noticeable effect, but in the Nordic North it raises the lows? Tops being limited by that exponential IR radiation with temperature and lows having an inverse relationship with the ln effect of water vapor freezing out in the very low lows? I find it an intriguing optional thesis. If so, we’d have a CO2 effect, but only in the very frozen places and only when temperatures were headed well below the freezing point of water… Perhaps, so this speculation runs, CO2 is what’s holding off the incipient Ice Age Glacial. If true, this would mean that CO2 was a Godsend, an extreme blessing. It also raises the potential that Ice Age Glacial events would have a partial trigger of plants when they manage to suck the CO2 level down below about 250 ppm. Hmmm… Such a set of speculations to muse upon. All from one graph:
You really need to click on this graph and see a big version to see what I’m talking about. The “high peaks” keep running just about 0 C anomaly within a fractional degree, but the lows ramp up from about -3 C to about -1/2 C of anomaly, and with a great ln fit.
For comparison, the ‘by segments’ linear fits do not look nearly so nice:
And for completion, here is Sweden, the very early years:
And as a very large, unwieldy, but impressive “All Data” version:
So I’m thinking about all the “way cool” things this all might mean, and decide to go look at the next door neighbors and see if they have the same kind of pattern.
Prior to 1825 Finland has an 8 C “ramp” from -5 C to +3 C as individual thermometers are added. I’ve clipped that as it just screams “early thermometer changes”.
Then we have your basic “dead flat” with a tilt at the end from the 1990 “Trick”. Dang it. But at least it has a lot of wobble to it.
Where we have trendless (i.e. flat) segments by thermometer count group with step functions between them, and a nice “1990 Pivot” to a hockey stick blade at the end:
And we’re back at “Thermometer change did it”…
OK, the rest of the graphs:
Iceland is a rolling riser that ends with one heck of a hockey blade on the end at the combined dropping of thermometers and 1990 process change. Though the rises look like they correlate with thermometer change times.
Faroe Islands (Denmark)
Woo Hoo! Hockey in the Islands!
Steady drop… right up until that “Pivot” moment. Golly! That’s a real beauty!
What a nice hockey blade at The Pivot! Those low going peaks really take a hair cut.
How odd. In the UK the “Dip” runs 10 years later than elsewhere. Right on top of the CRU baseline… 1961 to 1990. But it’s net a zero from time to time in the past… but what a fine Hockey Blade is spliced onto the end!
The Baltic States
Which each have their own character, but have a ‘discontinuity’ with data drop out at the time of the break up of the Soviet Block.
A nice -2 C just before The Pivot of 1990 into a hot rising trend:
An odd “rolling motion” with both ends at zero, then a “Jump” after the gap to a strange end.
Dead Flat until it fades down to a -2 C just before the “Jump” to +1 C that then fades back to zero. Not a whole lot going on until that “oddity” at the end.
One of the most striking things about all these graphs is the way that volatility just dies toward the present end. There is clearly some change of processing that had onset, probably in two steps, with one in 1980 or so and another in 1990. There is also clearly a dramatic impact from instrument changes. All in all, it looks one heck of a lot like something artificial and not at all like a natural gradual process.