Europe – The Overview

What Does Europe Look Like?

This is a gigantic chart. Please click on it to get a larger readable version. In it we see initial temperature rise in the 1700’s as we go from one thermometer to 35 (though we start to hit a “modern profile” in about 1753 with 7 thermometers and are ‘thoroughly modern’ by 1780 with 27 thermometers).

The most striking thing to me (other than the sheer length of the record) is the astounding stability in Europe right up until the “hockey stick” forms with The Pivot in 1990. Nothing at all like a gradual onset of CO2 over the length of the industrial revolution. Exactly like a change of process. There is a very small upward drift to the middle, roughly in line with what one would expect from Urban Heat Island, growth of Airports in the record and all the other heatings of thermometers. About 1/2 C. Then that jump in 1990 with The Great Dying of Thermometers.

Europe All Data Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Europe All Data Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

This graph is All Data for Region 6 – Europe. The data are “unadorned”. There is NO fill-in, homogenizing, interpolating, fabricating, estimating, or any other form of data “creation” (other than what NOAA / NCDC has put into the creation of the GHCN Version 2 data set of the January 2010 “vintage”). Furthermore, nothing is deleted. I use All Data.

This is an “anomaly” based graph. Each thermometer record is compared only with itself. The initial reading will be compared to itself, found equal, and yields a Zero value. From that point forward, each new value for each month will result in a “delta” or “anomaly” compared to the prior month. These “delta” values are stored in a data file. If there is data missing for a given thermometer record for a given year, a zero is entered into the data until a valid data item does show up for that month, then the difference is calculated and entered as the “anomaly” or “delta” in that year. (So 10C in 1900, nothing in 1901 and 1902, then 10.5 C in 1903 would be entered as 0.5 C of “anomaly” or warming in the 1903 record.) This lets me “span gaps” in the data without tossing data out and without fabricating ‘fill-in” from nothing. It is the most reasonable choice, in my opinion. If you had 1 C / 100 years of warming, you would expect the 1900 to 2000 delta to be 1 C even if it were only in two records; one in 1900 and the next in 2000. So I see no reason to toss that information away due to missing data in the middle. (Remember, I’m doing this for each individual thermometer record. Those two reading are from the same place and device…)

Those “anomalies” are then averaged for each year. The yearly average change is added up starting from the present and going “backward in time”. This makes the present “near zero” (actually just whatever the last change was from 2009 to January 2010 ) and accumulating changes backwards in time. We see “how was the past different from now?”.

You can see the average changes for any given month by looking at the monthly lines on the graph. This lets you see things like which months are most prone to large changes year to year. One of the striking features of the graph is just how much the “volatility” of those monthly values is suppressed recently. Either we are living in an age of unprecedented climate and temperature stability, or the data are being overly cleaned… That is, IMHO, one of the grand features of this graph. The ability to see what the monthly data ranges looks like. And to see if they look “clipped” recently (especially to the downside) along with seeing when they go to “near zero” and make that odd “squished” or “bullseye” look. That tends to happen when some major change was made and often indicates some kind of “splice” in the data. (Such as The Pivot in 1990 when most of the thermometer record gets a new “Duplicate Number” as something was changed in the processing.)

The Details of Europe

There are well over 50 total graphs for Europe. Enough to kill a slow network connection and / or sap ones focus and attention. Because of that, I’m making individual pages for each part of Europe. They will be listed as links here (as each is done) and the heading for that section will take you to that report when it is done.

I’ve chosen to group the countries in a way that makes sense to me. It may not be what you are used to seeing as groupings. Partly it is for a balanced number of graphs is each group. Partly it is to group similar climate regions together. In some cases, it’s just a random choice. (Such as: ought I to put Poland in with the Former Soviet Block? The Baltic states? The Central Europeans? The only correct answer is “yes”; so it’s a semi-random placement in one of them.) If your favorite country is not in the list, it is because it is not in the GHCN data set.

North Atlantic, Nordic, Baltic – 11

Iceland – 620
Norway – 634
Sweden – 645
Finland – 614
Estonia – 613
Latvia – 626
Lithuania – 628
Denmark – 612
Faroe Islands (Denmark) – 652
UK – 651
Ireland – 621

Atlantic / Coastal – 8

Madeira Islands (Portugal) – 654
Portugal – 636
Spain – 643
Gibraltar – 653
France – 615
Belgium – 606
Netherlands / Holland – 633
Luxembourg – 629

Mediterranean – 9

Italy – 623
Malta – 630
Greece – 618
Cyprus – 610
Turkey – 649
Israel – 622
Lebanon – 627
Jordan – 624
Syria – 647

Former Yugoslavia and Balkans – 9

Albania – 601
Bosnia / Herzegovina – 607
Serbia – 639
Moldova – 631
Montenegro – 632
Croatia – 609
Macedonia – 648
Bulgaria – 608
Romania – 637

Central Europe – 7

Germany – 617
Poland – 635
Czech Republic – 611
Slovakia – 641
Switzerland – 646
Austria – 603
Hungary – 619

Former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe- 7

Russia – European – 638
Kazakhstan – 625
Armenia – 602
Georgia – 616
Azerbaijan – 604
Belarus – 605
Ukraine – 650

About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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