Europe – Mediterranean

Europe – Mediterranean Countries – 9

These countries are bound together by a large body of warm water. Moderated by the Mediterranean Sea. They ought to have substantially similar temperature profiles. Yeah, one might be a degree or two warmer on any given day, or there might be a structural difference with one end of the sea a degree warmer than the other, but the relationships between the parts ought to persist over long periods of time. If there is persistent global warming, we ought to see these parts warming together. If the water gets hot at one end of the sea, currents and convection ought to rapidly spread it through the whole area. Is that what we see?

Italy – 623

I find the Italy graph fascinating. Not only the “late onset” of the warming, but how warm it was in the past. We do get the recent “volatility” or range reduction in the monthly values, and we do get the very rapid rise at the end. But looking at the overall graph, it’s more like a recovery from a cold snap than anything else. A “cold baseline” rather than a “hot now”.

Italy Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Italy Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Malta – 630

150 years of flat, with a minor falling trend line. An interesting artifact at the very beginning. Still, more a “cooling” or “nothing” story than any warming going on.

Malta Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Malta Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Greece – 618

Golly! Falling 1.5 C over most of the record, then a sudden “Pivot” into a hockey stick at the end. Manages to get “back to zero” but that’s about it. Does kind of highlight that early 1990’s processing change with a change of “Duplicate Number”. We even get a “soft bullseye” early near 1981 then a “hard bullseye” in about 1992. One to “hide the decline” and one to “stick it” to Greece.

Greece Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Greece Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Cyprus – 610

Don’t quite know what to make of Cyprus. Short record, hard drop at the start, then a pivot at the end of W.W.I then a rise to the end of W.W.II then flat until we get the “bullseye” Pivot. Looks to me like a record of political turmoil more than climate.

Cyprus Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Cyprus Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Turkey – 649

Where we have falling into the 1980’s “soft bullseye” then The Pivot out of the 1990’s hard bullseye. Seen that before…

Turkey - Monthly Temperature Changes and Cumulative Change

Turkey - Monthly Temperature Changes and Cumulative Change

This is also the place where the local BOM has a peer reviewed paper that finds ongoing cooling when you look at ALL the thermometers instead of practicing selective listening skills… In an earlier posting:

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/03/10/lets-talk-turkey/

In a comment from vjones, we had a link to the paper that found cooling:

Variations and trends in annual mean air temperatures in Turkey with respect to climatic variability

Murat Türke, Utku M. Sümer, Gönül Kiliç

State Meteorological Service, Department of Research, Climate Change Unit, 06120 Kalaba-Ankara, Turkey

Keywords
temperature • Turkey • climate change • time series • trends

Abstract
The purpose of this study is to investigate the variations and trends in the long-term annual mean air temperatures by using graphical and statistical time-series methods. The study covers a 63-year period starting from 1930 and uses temperature records from 85 climate stations. First, spatial distributions of the annual mean temperatures and coefficients of variation are studied in order to show normal conditions of the long-term annual mean temperatures. Then variations and trends observed in the annual mean temperatures are investigated using temperature data from 71 climate stations and regional mean series. Various non-parametric tests are used to detect abrupt changes and trends in the long-term mean temperatures of both geographical regions within Turkey and individual stations. The analyses indicate some noticeable variations and significant trends in the long-term annual mean temperatures. Among the geographical regions, only Eastern Anatolia appears to show similar behaviour to the global warming trends, except in the last 5 years. All the coastal regions, however, are characterized by cooling trends in the last two decades. Considering the results of the statistical tests applied to the 71 individual stations data, it could be concluded that annual mean temperatures are generally dominated by a cooling tendency in Turkey. The coldest years of the temperature records of the majority of the stations were 1933 and 1992, respectively.
Received: 7 January 1994; Revised: 12 July 1994

http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/114078036/abstract.

So, to me, it looks like the valid interpretation is that there was a falling trend which was muted into a rising trend via “selective listening skills”. Further, I would speculate that a long hard look at the Turkey record as reported by their BOM when compared to the NOAA / NCDC variation will shine one very bright light on just how it was done. That there is a profound discrepancy in these two sets of data is not in doubt. Only the “how”, “why”, and “who” are really open issues. IMHO.

Does it look any different with quantity of thermometers and segments?

Turkey Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Turkey Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Gee, look at that. The Pivot comes just after most of the record is dropped. Wonder what stations were kept?… and why.

Israel – 622

Some early volatility, a generally falling trend, then some thermometer pot stirring and we have a “hockey stick”. But the timing is a touch late and it only manages to get back up to zero.

Israel Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Israel Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Lebanon – 627

Very flat, a hint of The Pivot in 1991, then it’s cut off.

Lebanon Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Lebanon Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Jordan – 624

Falling. Then a “step function” back to zero in about 1993. Not what one would expect from CO2. Very much what one would expect from a change of instruments or processing.

Jordan Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Jordan Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Syria – 647

Syria is very similar, with a step function in 1993. Very short record, though.

Syria Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Syria Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Conclusions

Well, it looks to me like we have a divergence of timing and of the shape of the curves in many places. We do have some commonality (such as Syria and Jordan). Then there is Turkey. Similar shape to the curve, similar timing. Yet when we have all the data looked at by professionals in the field, they find ongoing cooling, not a rising trend. Yet GISS finds a “Hot Turkey” looked at for the whole year of 2009 or for a single month:

The GISS view of 2009 via their Anomaly Map for 2009

The GISS view of 2009 via their Anomaly Map for 2009

NASA Dec2009 Anomaly Map defaults

NASA GISS Anomaly map Dec 2009 Default 1200 km 'fill in'

Now I’m the kind of person who, when he has one clearly broken clock and a second clock matches it; tends to think maybe that second clock is broken too…

So given the “Roast Turkey” story of data cooked by selection bias, my first thought has to be “Are the others biased in the same way by the same process?” That other places, like Malta, show divergent trends tends to confirm that point of view. That leaves me with a simple conclusion:

The Mediterranean is in a cooling trend, not warming, but a very flat cooling trend. The data since 1991 are biased in some way that “hides the decline”, but the “who” and “how” are not yet known.

For each country in Europe we need a report like that one done by the Meteorologists of the State Meteorological Service pf Turkey. Basically, I think we need to take the whole business away from the “Climate Scientists” and had it over to the professional Meteorologists who know how to do things right.

About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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2 Responses to Europe – Mediterranean

  1. A C Osborn says:

    But “They” don’t want it done right do they, after all the people actually doing the measuring are probably doing it right.

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