Africa – The Islands

The Islands Around Africa

We already saw some of these in the https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/04/05/ascension-decending/ posting. But this is the canonical set of Islands who’s location is associated with Africa.

We will start up near Europe, then move down the coast to the South Atlantic, and end our tour over in the Indian Ocean. Then inexplicably, jump to near the West Antarctic Peninsula…

Canary Islands

Just off the coast of Morocco. Not a hint of the ‘1975’ divot / pivot, even though the winds from central Sahara flow out to sea right over it. We do get a pattern we have seen before, though:

Canary Islands Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Canary Islands Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Trend line dead flat, some cyclical ripple. Then we hit the 1980 change / recompute point and get a ‘step function’ higher (saw lot of those elsewhere in the world) but with a slightly falling trend line; and then the “bulls eye” in 1991/2 with a “fix” to the trend line (and a giant drop out of ‘cold going’ monthly anomalies).

I would just LOVE to know how CO2 is supposed to have caused that… At some point I’m going to do an A/B set of The Canaries vs other things near by.

Cape Verde Islands

Speaking of nearby, we have the Cape Verde Islands just a ways further south.

Cape Verde Islands Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Cape Verde Islands Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Lots of data dropouts in the recent years. Then it gets cut off in 2005. Generally dropping trend until we kill off a bunch of thermometers and take a ‘step function’ higher, with a flat trend line. Finally, that 1990 Pivot to a high trend line, but even that “needs some help” from data dropouts (which the dT/dt method tolerates fairly well). And we end up back at a 0 C anomaly where we were about 1980 and 1899…

Ascension

Dropping steadily in the middle of the South Atlantic.

Ascension Island Monthly Anomaly and Running Total

Ascension Island Monthly Anomaly and Running Total

Sao Tome and Principe Islands

Over near the equatorial cost of Africa. A slightly rising trend line, but via raising the bottoms (something we’ve also seen way too much) as the tops keep bouncing off that 0 C anomaly region. Once again it’s not getting warmer, it’s getting less cool… (And I can’t think of anything “less cool” than “Global Warming” ;-)

Sao Tome And Principe Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Sao Tome And Principe Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Saint Helena Island – 1476

For some unknown reason, Saint Helena Island shares a country code with Signy Island. Saint Helena Island is out in the South Atlantic near the African Equatorial area a bit south of Ascension. So it is dropping too?

Saint Helena Island Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Saint Helena Island Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Nope. Steady rise. Gee. Two islands. Both in the same South Atlantic bathtub. Both on the southern edge of the Benguela Current. One heating, the other downstream from it cooling. Amazing. Just amazing…

OK, let’s go “Around The Horn” to the Indian Ocean

There are a bunch of Islands near Madagascar. Similar currents out of the Indian Ocean. They all ought to be essentially identical climates, with micro-climate and siting issues mostly. So what do we get? Are they all “boringly alike”?

Madagascar

Spectacular rise at the start of time, then we cycle around 0 C anomaly and suddenly all the thermometers die. Wonder why… Surely nothing to do with the complete lack of warming over the last 100 years…

Madagascar Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Madagascar Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Reunion

Tucked between Madagascar and Mauritius. So, identical to Mauritius? Or Madagascar?

1 C of steady rise (as the thermometers are changed in and out…)

Reunion Island Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Reunion Island Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Mauritius

A fairly flat series with a slight rise up until 1990, but most of that comes from the “cold peak clipping” in the 1980s. Before that we’re ranging from -1 C to -2 C on a pretty regular cyclic basis. Flat trend. Then we get some “lift” in the late 80’s as the “Cold Clip” happens. The “Bulls eye” in 1992 seals the deal with a very nice 1 C / 20 years trend line. Too bad it’s not at all like Reunion nor like Madagascar. Oh Well, just have to homogenize it around to “Hide The Incline” ;-)

Mauritius Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Mauritius Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Mayotte

Near the Comoros on the Mozambique side of Madagascar.

Humphft! Dropping like a rock… Massive data dropouts in the later years (so will be ‘in filled’ from elsewhere in other climatology codes; but not here…). One wonder why, if it’s reporting (and it is reporting since there are records) so much data has gone missing?

Mayotte Island Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Mayotte Island Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

But with only one thermometer there is only so much you can do…

Comoros

Ah, much better. 5 thermometers to play with. Plenty of “splice and dice” to be done. What a wonderful rising trend! 2 C in 60 years. Why, at that rate will be 20 C hotter in 600 years. Now THATS “global warming” you can believe in! Or not…

Comoros Island Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Comoros Island Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Seychelles

A bit more north, in the current coming off the Chagos. Indian Ocean on all sides.

Talk about your anemic trend. It would be ‘dead flat’ between 0 C and -1.5 C as an oscillator if we didn’t clip out the negative peaks recently. Odd, though, that this unchanging water somehow becomes both warmer and colder as it approaches Madagascar… (Or maybe it is all about the instrument and process changes and not so much about the world getting warmer…)

Seychelles Islands Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Seychelles Islands Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Tromelin Island

In between Seychelles and Mauritius. Flat or rising?

How about some of each? Mostly flat to the 1980 “Lift” and the 1990 “Pivot” but with an interesting twist. We’ve got the typical “cold clipping” but look at that hot spike in the 1997-1999 area! Too bad Madagascar and Mauritius don’t have it. But the Seychelles do somewhat, just followed by a neutralizing ‘down spike’ that is missing from Tromelin. Guess Tromelin got stuck…

Tromelin Island Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Tromelin Island Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Chagos

Equatorial center of the Indian Ocean. Should be just like the Seychelles. Same latitude. Same water. Same current off of the Wharton basin. Weeeell…. not quite.

Dropping / flat up to that 1980 “bullseye” when something changed. Then a step function higher (though still at 0 C anomaly) until The Pivot hits in 1991. I probably ought to do a “by segments” graph for this one.

Chagos Archipelago Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Chagos Archipelago Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Amsterdam Island

Half way from South Africa to Australia in the cooler currents cycling the south pole.
A rising trend, but again from “clipping the bottoms”. We cycle around the 0 C line. There is the typical ‘gap’ nature from missing data in the ’90s and early Oughties showing a lot of data dropping. We also have a big “dip” in the mid ’60s that makes for most of that “trend” to higher lately. Wonder if something happened “down south” in the way of volcanos then…

Amsterdam Island (France) Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Amsterdam Island (France) Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Crozet – 143

Due south of Madagascar about 1/2 way to Antarctica. It, too, has a mid-60’s dip. The trend is substantially flat since then.

Crozet Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Crozet Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

By Segments

So if we take out the first round of thermometer change and put it and the “dip” together, we have a sharp down spike, a recovery, then flat. With a sharp drop in the last decade.

Crozet Monthly Anomalies and Running Total by Segments

Crozet Monthly Anomalies and Running Total by Segments

Signy Island – 1478

Also down in the South Polar currents. But curiously lacking that mid-60’s drop and with a darned near flat trend.

Signy Island Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Signy Island Monthly Anomalies and Running Total

Better drop that one on the floor… wonder what they found in the 1991 ‘re-imagining’ that was so unimaginable that Signy got shot? RIP Signy, we will honor your memory…

For reasons known only to them, NOAA / NCDC put Signy Island in Africa even though it is over next to South Georgia and Falkland Islands that are in South America Region 2. It really ought to be compared to those locations (and I’ll do that in a subsequent posting…)

But for now, here it is. FWIW if you use the “country code” of 147 to “make a set of reports” you will be combining Signy Island from near the South American Antarctic area with Saint Helena Island from due south of Spain and about the latitude of Angola.

“Why? Don’t ask why. Down that path lies insanity and ruin. -E.M.Smith”

Conclusions

Same as before, I fear. I just can’t see a way for a globally diffuse effect to manifest in all these different profiles. Things sitting in the same bathtub ought to be the same. Unless, of course, you are measuring local site issues and not climate….

And averaging all of these divergent patterns together will not improve the truth in them, it will only hide it.

About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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