Get Ready For A Cold Winter

Already Cold in Brazil and South Africa

As we saw in two earlier postings, it’s already off to a cold start in South Africa and in Brazil. Then, from one of the best meteorologists on the planet, Joe Bastardi, we have more… ( Joe, and Acuweather, is the ‘go to’ weatherman for the financial channels when something goes bump in the night. That’s because he gets it right, and in trading, you must be right or you are out of business.) So what is Joe saying?

From:

http://www.accuweather.com/world-bastardi-europe-blog.asp

we have the following quotes:

However, I was saying back in winter that the guys screaming global warming was causing all the snow and cold should wait because this would be their summer to howl, and there is nothing going on now that wasn’t seen here. But guess what… they better scream now because they won’t be soon. The Earth’s temp is about to do a giant turnaround, so much so that my idea of it hitting normal may be underdone over the next 18 months. This could get as low as a month or two of .2 or .3 c above normal, and Arctic sea ice will rebound DRAMATICALLY in the year-to-year comparisons over the next 2-3 years.

For now, the battle is not yet clear to many, but I am as confident about that forecast as any as I have made. You watch what happens globally this fall into next year. It won’t be pretty, as a dramatic drop is on the way.

“Giant turnaround”. “It won’t be pretty, as a dramatic drop is on the way.”

Pretty strong stuff (and almost certainly correct.)

Further down he has:

Now, on the free site yesterday I caught a video showing the great global temperature collapse on the way. Can it be any more obvious that the oceans control the thermostat? We watched the Nino come on, and what happen to the Earth’s temperatures… they rose in RESPONSE, after the nino set in! Now the La Nina is coming on, and guess what… down it goes… Look at this:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbT2mSea.gif

It’s shooting fish in the barrel. The fact that we are switching into the cold PDO and the La Ninas outgunning the El Ninos will be a way of life for the next 30 years should speak volumes to anyone that simply uses logic and common sense.

Lord help us if the sun doesn’t wake up, or Arctic volcanoes are going off. Part of the extreme reaction you may be seeing is in response to the volcanoes of two winters ago in Siberia and Alaska (it takes five years for its response to mature) and of course Mr. Sun, which in spite of the best efforts of NASA, is still pretty much asleep. Sure there are sunspots, but their intensity is way, way down. It’s akin to snow flurries in winter… not a big snowstorm (in this case, sun storm).

So we’ve got the PDO la Niña thing going on, and 3 more years of growing impact from Russian and Alaskan volcanoes (with Icelandic and South American volcanoes adding some too…)

I suggest hanging out at Joe’s site from time to time, especially if you care about the weather and getting it right.

But Is It Only Joe?

Tallbloke has an interesting predictive model here:

http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2010/01/05/my-simple-solar-planetary-energy-model/

Given the sleeping sun, to the extent Tallbloke is right, there is a lot of cold on the way. There is a time lag as the oceans are loaded with / emptied of, heat. So since 1998 we’ve been dumping the excess, now it’s time for the air temps to start catching up with the heat flow.

And if these guys are right:

http://journalofcosmology.com/ClimateChange111.html

It’s likely to stay that way for 30 years or more.

Add in the prediction by Habibullo Abdussamatov, the head of space research at St. Petersburg’s Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia; and we’re getting a common theme going on here.

See his talk in the links at this site:

http://www.wnd.com/?pageId=155225

I think there is sufficient pattern developing to embrace this notion of a very cold decade or three on the way.

What To Do?

Well, first off, I’d stop any residual worry about “Global Warming” and I’d prepare to go short any trade that depends on it.

Shortly after that, I’d focus on a personal preparation strategy ( helpful hints under the “Emergency Preparation and Risks” category on the right edge) and make sure I was not living in a flood plane or a very heavy snow area. Unless, of course, I liked living with excessive snow…

Then after that, I’d start planing to own land in more tropical or warmer locations. Cold winters will whack winter wheat and barley crops in Canada and Russia more than sugarcane in Brazil or Mexican soybeans. (No, I’m not planing to move this year… I talking about things like CZZ Cozan where you can buy shares on an exchange).

If a load of folks are betting on ‘hotter’ and it’s really going to be colder, you have a market inefficiency to exploit. Just remember that the market will go “the wrong way” up until it is impossible to ignore it, and only THEN will the reverse trade make money. It’s important to be right when everyone else is wrong, but it’s more important to only put the trade on just before the big money realizes it’s wrong ;-)

There are other trades available (such as the road salt makers) but those will have to wait “for the fullness of time”. For now, the prediction of a warm summer by Joe for the N. hemisphere locations implies there is plenty of time to watch the situation develop.

Yeah, a very long lead time on this call…

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
This entry was posted in AGW and Weather News Events, Economics, Trading, and Money. Bookmark the permalink.

10 Responses to Get Ready For A Cold Winter

  1. Verity Jones says:

    Australia too: http://globalfreeze.wordpress.com/2010/06/29/western-australia-coldest-june-night-on-record/

    This summer (NH) is like I remember from the 70s – pleasent, sunny, windy, lukewarm, but not hot. Anything is better than the almost incessant rain (at least that is how it seemed) of the last few years.

    Oh and the cold Winter has produced amazing results in my garden, with all the bugs severely knocked back. I have the most beautiful scarlet honeysuckle but I haven’t seen it bloom properly in years due to blackfly. [The buds develop but then become infested and shrivel. I'm reluctant to spray anything really effective because of the ladybirds and lacewings that live off the blackfly.] This year it is a glorious sight.

    I can handle a proper Winter (like last year). I like distinct seasons. Just don’t give me the mild wet Winters and cool wet summers that have predominated in the last decade.

  2. Pingback: TWAWKI » The coming great global temperature COLLAPSE

  3. Bruce of Newcastle says:

    G’day Chefio, the second link isn’t working, I think because it came across with the text from Joe Bastardi. I checked the NOAA site and yes the file is there:
    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbT2mSea.gif

    We had Anthony Watts, David Stockwell and David Archibald come through Newcastle a couple of weeks ago, and David A had a good map of the expected reduction in Canadian growing area. By quite a lot! It is not in his E&E paper, but the paper has some of the other SC24 graphs that he put up:
    http://www.davidarchibald.info/papers/Archibald2009E&E.pdf

    And one of my favourites is to Joe D’Aleo’s posting about the quiet sun from April, with the painting of the frozen London Town 1810:
    http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/the_transition_between_solar_sunspot_cycles_23_and_24_sun_back_in_mini_slum/

    So you’re not alone… :)

  4. GregO says:

    Chiefio,

    I was reading your post just after having discovered tallbloke and I was just about at Joe Bastardi when I thought to myself, “does Chiefio know about tallbloke” almost simultaneously with reading your reference to him. How weird is that?

    Anyhow, for some reason I find the cosmic connection fascinating. We can all follow as it unfolds this summer/fall/winter.

  5. E.M.Smith says:

    @Bruce of Newcastle:

    Thanks, fixed it. There was a very hard to see gratuitous blank just in front of .gif that was buggering it. Probably, as you surmised, an artifact of the text copy process.

    @Greg O:

    It is something the whole world will get to follow, but it will be like watching a train wreck that unfolds over 5 years. A lot of folks will just not have the ‘attention span’ to see it even as it happens.

    And for the first 3 or 4 years there will be a lot of hollering about how it’s just weather…

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  7. Rick Bradford says:

    What will the AGW crowd do when unequivocal cooling sets in?

    Why, they’ll say this is catastrophic climate change caused by CO2, just like they’ve been saying all along…..

  8. Luís says:

    We watched the Nino come on, and what happen to the Earth’s temperatures… they rose in RESPONSE

    AGW has been built on this sort of logic. How can a weak current in the Eastern Pacific be impacting the Weather globally?

    Bastardi seems to ignore what causes the El Niño current to surface. An act of God maybe?

  9. E.M.Smith says:

    @Luis:

    The best explanation I’ve seen so far for the PDO cycle, and through it the El Niño / La Niña cycles – if I might extend it; is from a paper that I think was by Ian Wilson. I’ve got the link buried in an old article about earthquakes from about a year ago, somewhere…

    Basically, he found a connection between the state of the solar system (angular momentum of sun) and the length of day of the earth AND the PDO.

    So it isn’t so much that the currents in the Pacific CAUSE global changes as that they INDICATE them.

    The thesis is that the angular momentum of the planet changes in response to all the ‘stuff’ in the solar system tugging it this way and that, and this change of AM shows up as a LOD change AND as a slopping about of the water in the oceans (note the plural…). Then the weather has an impact.

    So I would simply extend that to: After the PDO swaps, the El/La cycle shifts to a more cold dominated pattern as we see more cold develop globally.

    The exact driver of the connections is still needing elucidation, but that the connections are there is pretty clear.

    If it helps, you can think of it as something like:

    We’ve figured out that the pistons and the crankshaft are connected by the rods, and we’ve noticed that just after one of the valves opens and closes, it gets hotter (or colder for the other valve) but were still looking for how the fire in the top of the system makes it go. ( i.e. using the engine analogy, we haven’t figured out yet about the closed combustion area and the gasoline and ignition system pushing on the piston and we’re still looking for the camshaft.)

    If your not an engine guy, that will be a useless analogy, but for engine guys, it helps sometimes…

    Basically, I don’t think Bastardi is ascribing CAUSALITY to the El Niño so much as he is ascribing correlation with precedent timing.

    Though frankly, I could easily see it being causal. The Pacific is a large place and it’s hot water at the surface that drives hurricanes, for example. So a little bit of surface water temp is the difference between clear and sunny vs Cat 4 with clouds for 500 miles in all directions and a huge quantity of heat piped to space… and no more New Orleans… It would take ‘doing the math’ to figure out if the energy is enough to be causal, but we don’t really understand the mechanisms involved well enough to pose the question mathematically. (Just try to model a cloud…)

    Hope some of that helps more than it hurts.

  10. P.G. Sharrow says:

    E.M. I like your analogy, it brought a smile to my face. :-)
    AS an engine guy it appears that the climate people that are studying the connecting rods think they know how the engine works and they have no real idea about the top or bottom ends, ;-q

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