WSW – 11 July 2010

If you are expecting global warming stuff, it’s here:

Canonical in reverse date order:

Intro page with favorites:

Input Data Issues:

This posting is about the other thing I do, looking at investment markets. Prior postings in this series are available here:

Posts with some relevance to trades, but not in the format of a full WSW analysis, are available under this category:

The charts in this posting are live charts, so my comments will describe how it is now, but in a week it will be showing new data and a new week. Since I think it’s more important to be in touch with what the market is doing NOW than to preserve the historical chart, this is, IMHO, a reasonable choice. Just don’t be surprised if the chart I describe is not the one you see a few weeks from now! If you would like to see the historical chart, you may enter custom date ranges on the charting tool at

Daily Notes

None Yet.

Wall Street Week – Sunday, July 11, 2010

OK, I’ve been recommending to be out of the stock market or short for a while now. So far, that’s been a pretty good call. Two weeks ago I said we were entering a time of maximum downside risk as a rise touched the middle of the Simple Moving Average (SMA) stack from below. Then the market promptly fell. That’s pretty good shooting! Unfortunately, due to various ‘life events’ I didn’t come back with a timed ‘enter now’ on the rally from that fall. But trying to ride short rising rallies in a falling market is very hard. You are betting against the dominant trend. (That also illustrates why these postings use live charts and why I explain how to use them rather than just ‘give answers’. You need to be able to make your own decisions even if I’m flat on my back from too much vigor in the garden with the shovel.)

So what has been “hot” in the last week? What was leading this rise and can we learn something from it?

10 Best Performing Industries
  Industry Name	Percent Change (over time selected)  
  DJ US Nonferrous Metals Index	12.93%  
  DJ US Coal Index	11.92%  
  DJ US Travel & Tourism Index	11.81%  
  DJ U.S. Industrial Metals & Mining...	10.93%  
  DJ US Mortgage Finance Index	10.19%  
  DJ U.S. Iron & Steel Index	9.49%  
  DJ US Aluminum Index	9.38%  
  DJ US Basic Resources Index	9.32%  
  DJ US Business Training & Employmen...	9.29%  
  DJ US Asset Managers Index	9.21%  

Industrial metals, coal, business services in helping folks prepare for a job and manage money, travel.

All that looks like an ‘industrial recovery play’ But we are in the context of a falling market. Some (perhaps most) of that is not new buyers, but short sellers covering their positions during the rise. Those are the things we saw shorted just a few weeks ago.

Worst performers?

10 Worst Performing Industries
  Industry Name	Percent Change (over time selected)  
  DJ US Apparel Retailers Index	1.22%  
  DJ US Home Improvement Retailers In...	1.42%  
  DJ US Fixed Line Telecommunications...	1.76%  
  DJ US Specialty Retailers Index	1.89%  
  DJ US Telecommunications Index	2.24%  
  DJ US Defense Index	2.64%  
  DJ US General Retailers Index	2.66%  
  DJ US Biotechnology Index	2.67%  
  DJ US Retail Index	2.86%  
  DJ US Platinum & Precious Metals In...	3.04%  

“A rising tide raises all boats.”

Even the worst, clothing retailers, made money. Though remember that 2 weeks ago the ‘losers’ were losing in the 20% range over a 3 month period. These gains are a rally in a falling trend.

In the last posting we saw Mexico out performing the US markets. Lets start with a quick check on Mexico and see if it is still doing that.

EWW Mexico ETF vs SPY USA Markets and FXM Mexican Peso ETF

EWW Mexico ETF vs SPY USA Markets and FXM Mexican Peso ETF

Here we see that the Mexican Peso is more or less stable compared to the US Dollar, but with a slight uplift. You can also see how FXM, the peso, is driven up and down in sync with stock market moves. Large investment flows tend to jiggle a national currency. We can also see that the US market and the Mexican market tend to move together. Both fell from the SMA stack. But a bit of finesse here. Notice that EWW made it through the SMA stack on that last up blip. The SPY tends to ‘call the tune’, and that is why I use it as my major index to plot. As the benchmark. Other indexes and ETFs, like EWW, can give slightly ‘muddier’ signals as the SPY jerks the whole global market around.

OK, some general comments on this chart.

There is a very large and colorful body of pre-existing work and terminology on stock patterns. Some of it ‘speaks to me’ and some does not. Notice that the tops of the price curve are making ‘lower highs’ while the bottoms are making ‘higher lows’ (while the SPY is just lower for both…) IIRC, that is traditionally called a “pennant” after the triangle shaped flag. (There is a ‘flag’ shape as well with parallel sides). But that does not speak to me. So instead I call this “wedging in”. The prices are making a wedge shape headed to a point. When they collide, something has to give.

So we look at the other indicators.

First up, RSI has gone “near 20” and is now rising with “higher lows”. That argues for a breakout to the upside. (But can also mean simply a rally in a flat or falling stock). MACD has “red on top” and is ‘below zero’. Both are negative conditions. BUT the shape of the MACD curve is looking like a ‘crossover to the topside soon’. It’s not here yet, so we stay out. A MACD upside call in a falling context can put you into the ‘flat’ part of a ‘stair steps down” pattern of “flat, fall, flat, fall, flat, fall” and you don’t make money buying a flat part of a falling market.

So what does DMI say? The strength line ( the ADX line or the black line) is at 15. That’s pretty weak. We’ve gone ‘trendless’. You can also see this in the way the SMA lines “weave” together. Not a clear running trend like we had 6 months ago. (Often, the same information can be seen in many ways. Weaving SMA stack, wedging in price peaks, DMI 15 are all saying the same thing. No net gain, just rolling right now.)

So what to do with this information?

Until a trend develops, you can’t ride the trend (or ‘trend trade’). You could go to a much longer time period and make an investment decision based on a 10 year weekly tick-mark chart, or you could move to a ‘fast chart’ and swing trade (or a very fast chart and day trade). Remember that MACD works best on trending stocks. ADX over 25. Slow Stochastic is better for trading ‘rollers’. This chart has some trade indicators on it.

Mexico Slow Stochastic, Williams %R, Rate of Change

Mexico Slow Stochastic, Williams %R, Rate of Change

Slow Stochastic (that is actually a fairly fast indicator) is at the top, about to roll over. It’s saying to exit that rally and sell the trade right now. Sure, we might start trending higher tomorrow, but for NOW the trade is to sell out. If we get a breakout into a new trend, we can always buy back in. And notice that when SlStoch is down near 20 and crosses over to the topside, that’s a good buy point in a trendless roller.

How about a ‘fast chart”? This is the 10 day, hourly tick-mark, swing traders chart.

Mexico 10 day hourly chart

Mexico 10 day hourly chart

Same three indicators as in our default charts. RSI, MACD, and DMI. RSI gives a ‘look ahead’, MACD tells us NOW, and DMI confirms our context. DMI has had ‘blue on top’ for a few days (tradeable swing trade) and MACD is, as I type this, positive with a flattening top. The run up is going flat. You can also see that in how the stock price rate of advance has rolled over to flat. You are now taking 100% of the risk for little to no gain. The “swing” is over for now. Maybe it will resume tomorrow, but the bet is to ‘be out’ and wait for a new entry point. (The last entry point was when MACD crossed over to “blue on top” about a week ago and RSI was rising off of a near 20 touch). Now, with RSI approaching 80 is not a time to be buying in, even with DMI ‘blue on top’ as DMI is a lagging indicator.

OK, so much for ‘trade school’ Now we’re going to pull our ‘time scope’ back out to the investor time frame.

The Long Term Context

This is a very long duration chart (5 years) of the S&P 500 (SPY). Notice that we’ve slowly rounded over into a flat trend line. The moving averages are pointing sideways. We’ve got the Slow Stochastic headed up, but with a crossover in the middle. The ‘rebound’ is dying. We had a couple of weeks trade to the upside that ended and turned into a rapid drop in the last couple of weeks, then a short rally that is dying. The MACD indicator is clearly ‘Red On Top’ and crossing the zero line to the negative , so the investment trend is to the downside. DMI is ‘Red On Top’ too, so the major bias stays negative. We’re in a longer term flat to falling market. Our long term context is significantly risky.

5 Years, NYSE

5 years, NYSE

We continue to have ‘bear market be out or short’ indications. RSI is still ‘stair steps down’ from an approach to near 80. Williams %R is in the ‘be out now’ range (wait for a cross over of the mid-line to reenter) and Rate Of Change is also saying the trend is down. Notice how the same information can come in several different indicators?

SPY 5 year weekly tick, RSI, Williams %R, ROC

SPY 5 year weekly tick, RSI, Williams %R, ROC

OK, these are long term charts, and the indicators will lag faster charts when a ‘turn’ to the upside comes. But they tell you which way the risk is running. Right now the risk is in the market. Buy things with inherent value and good dividends while you wait. (Oil and gas trusts, gold and gold miners, strong bonds in stable currencies, etc. Though a warning, the gold chart is looking a bit ‘long in the tooth’… we’ll talk about that a bit more below.) But it’s “watching and waiting” time. And yes, a 1 year chart will show trades, but remember the ‘upside’ is in the context of a longer term dead market… You will make as much money (or more) on the short side.

What Is Our Context

Let’s look at the S&P 500 largest stocks in America compared with some other kinds of assets; a 20 year+ maturity bond fund, oil, gold, Yen.

Asset Class Races

Asset Class Recent Race

SPY       The S&P 500 ETF
GLD       Gold ETF
USO       Oil ETF
FXY       Japanese Yen currency fund
TLT       20 Year U.S. Treasury Bond fund
FXE       Euro currency ETF
SLV       Silver fund
BZF       Brazilian currency ETF
EWA       Austria ETF
WOOD      A wood and paper products fund

Zoomed in on this time scale we can see that the ‘bull run’ trade in the SPY is over for now. We have MACD below the zero line, and we have DMI with red on top and holding there. RSI has a pattern of rolling with the range between 50 and near 20. We’re headed down for a while. At best we would expect a ‘flat roller’ sideways until a trend forms.

The most interesting thing on the chart is the way foreign exchange is acting. Yen, Euro, even Brazilian Reals are rising. Time to be ‘out of dollars’. The rush to the US Dollar is over. (No real surprise. The IMF has announced that the USA needs to raise taxes and stop spending. What they usually are telling Tin Pot Dictators of 3rd world Banana Republics… At least now we know what the IMF thinks of our government’s ‘economic plans’… )

Last posting I’d said:

The Fed decision to leave rates unchanged (at nothing) has kept long bonds rising. Trading ‘long bonds’ was a good trade. (Just don’t marry them, OK? The TLT chart has what looks like a parabolic spike with RSI saying it’s a bit over done at the moment… though MACD and DMI are both supportive of more upside. So look for an an entry after a bit of the steam has come out of it… One does not buy when the price is far from the moving average stack to the upside.)

And TLT has been falling since. Not bad. Not bad at all.

We’ve also got Gold and Silver resuming their rise (though really as a dollar drop). Though the Japanese have announced that they think they need a weaker Yen to stay competitive globally. Watch out for Japanese central bank sales of Yen…

Oil is being volatile (as it always is) but somewhat off a bottom. OK, basic value is there. Australia looks like a pretty solid bottom. “Failure to advance” to the downside is a good thing.

Australia has mostly decided what their companies will be worth (about 1/3 less IF I understand the new tax right) after their government gets done creaming off their ‘skim of the take’… Once they decide what the exact rules are (for the next how long?) it will be reasonable to revisit Australia. For now, it’s on the ‘review’ list.

What about Brazil? A Closer Look.

So we’ve got Brazil dragging on the bottom of this stack. Mexico and India are beating it. But clearly the chart now says Brazil is a good risk again.

Brazil the EWZ ETF vs the BZF currency ETF

Brazil ETF vs Currency Race

EWZ  - Brazil
BZF  - Brazilian Real currency
FXI  - China
EWA  - Australia
EPI  - India - WIsdom Tree fund
EWC  - Canada
EWW  - Mexico
GUR  - Middle East Fund

We have a rising RSI off of a bottom ‘near 20’. MACD is ‘blue on top’ and above zero (if only just barely) and DMI is also ‘blue on top’ (even if the ADX line says the trend is weak for now at 15).

It looks to me like the “Emerging Markets” trade is back on. In a tepid kind of way.

OOTUS – Out Of The U.S.

See the racing stocks tab for currencies and for foreign emerging stock markets for the latest moves.

The currencies are intriguing. We’ve got gold the clear historical winner, but the emerging market currencies are waking up. Even the Euro looks to have bottomed against the US Dollar. Looks like a ‘dump dollars’ trade to me.

Last posting I said:

“Oddly, both the British Pound and the Swiss Franc look to have made bottoms and started a rise. Worth watching.”

That has worked out well too.

Currencies race

Currencies race

But the Gold chart is still worrisome to me:

Gold 1 year daily chart

Gold 1 year daily chart

First notice that we have “Failure To Advance”. The recent tops form a more or less flat line, not a rising one. Not good. We have a recent drop. Someone is selling. Then we have RSI that was near 80, then dribbles downhill away from it. That usually means “falling soon”. Then MACD is below zero, with red on top. Finally, DMI has gone to ‘Red On Top” and the ADX line is gaining strength toward 20. Time to be out of gold.

Some Selected Emerging Markets

Mostly dropping, with a wobble, but with Indonesia staying mostly flat overall (with volatility though…). Tradable runs though. India (EPI) looking good too.

Indonesia Fund 1 Year Chart

Indonesia Fund 1 Year Chart

This chart compares FXI – China 25 big stocks, EWZ – Brazil, EWO – Austria, EPI – Wisdom Tree India fund, and the Indonesia fund.

IDX  Indonesia Fund
FXI  China
EWZ  Brazil
EWO  Austria ('emerging Europe proxy)
EPI  India with dividends and growth fund

VIX the Volatility Index

We’re getting the peaks characteristic of a falling market, but with lower sterngth over time. Not much trend, but what there is says things going a bit flat.

Volatility Index and Related

Volatility Index and Related

VIX  - Volatility Index (not a ticker, you can't trade it)
VXX - Short term VIX futures ETN (a ticker you can trade)
VXZ - Medium term VIX futures ETN (a ticker you can trade)
FXY - Japanese Yen
SH - "Short" sell of SPY
SPY - S&P 500 benchmark
IYT  - Transports, a leading sector
XHB  - Homebuilders, a leading sector and "canary" 
XRT  - Retail

The Dollar

This is a ‘US Dollar UP” trade chart of UUP. The down bet is UDN.

Dollar Trade -UP

Dollar Trade -UP

Last posting I’d said:

The dollar had a parabolic rise away from the simple moving average stack and, as always happens, resolved by moving back to the SMA stack. OK. But what’s next? The indicators still say ‘be long dollars’, but the trend is weakening. Often a spike like that is called a ‘blow off top’ and can indicate a trend ending. If it does end, I’d expect it to go flat rather than reverse to the downside. The ‘bet’ by the numbers would be to more Euro weakness. But central banks can stir things up when they want, so use care. Most interesting to me is that Swiss Frank rise. I’d look at Swiss stocks (though EWL is a SPY match at present) and bonds at this point and with the Japanese Central Bank making cheap yen noises, looks like a swap to FXF for parking cash could be interesting.

That worked out pretty well too. FXF has been rising nicely. And the US dollar is now looking very much like a ‘blowoff top’. Price has punched through the SMA stack. RSI is dropping. MACD and DMI both ‘red on top’. Only complaint I’d have is I was too tepid about how strong the drop would be.

Ideas of the Week

Selected buying in strong emerging markets.

What does the 10 day hourly chart say is happening now?

Here’s a 10 day houly chart of the Dow 30 Industrials (DIA), the S&P 500 (SPY), the Nasdaq tech companies (QQQQ), the Russel 2000 (RUT), and both a Brazil fund (EWZ) and an Australia fund (EWA). It also has a ‘short fund’ (SH) on the chart so you can see what being short this market is doing right now. We also have EWO, an emerging Europe Austria fund, EWW for Mexico and IIF for India.

A nice rise… back to where we were 10 days ago… Good for swing trades and not much else.

10 Day Hourly Interval Broad Market

10 Day Hourly Interval Broad Market

Other Asset Classes

The 6 month asset class race:

Asset Class Race

Asset Class Race

SPY  S & P 500 US stocks
GLD  Gold
EEM  Emerging Markets
FXY  Japanese Yen
JJC  Copper
TLT  Long term bonds 20 year+
USO  U.S. Oil
DBA  Agricultural basket
SLV  Silver
WOOD  Wood / Timber

TLT is the winner in the race, but with a dropping dollar, has taken a turn down. More interesting to me is DBA and JJC that look like a bottom is in.

So what happened in the Tech Market relative to world markets?

Tech vs Other Markets

Tech vs Other Markets

QQQQ  Nasdaq 100 mostly Tech companies
DIA  Dow Jones 30 Industrials
SPY  S & P 500 largest companies in the U.S.A.
MDY  Midcap  (Middle sized in terms of market capitalization)
RUT  Russel 2000 - a collection of 2000 companies from small to large.
EWZ  Brazil fund
EWA  Australia fund
EWO  Austria fund
EWW  Mexico fund

Dropping a pace… I’d be more inclined to bottom fish in the three on the bottom that look like they have started a new rise.

Were Bonds a good idea?

OK, lets take a peak at the Bonds Race but with TBT (the “long term bonds” short sell ETN – that is, the thing that “shorts bonds”) as the main ticker symbol:

Bonds - TBT to Short Them

Bonds - TBT to Short Them

About 3 months ago, TLT took off and the Bond Short TBT tanked. So folks started to run for bonds about that “Sell in May and Go Away” moment. It’s still working, but the trade is getting a bit old. I’m waiting for TBT to cross over the SMA stack for a ‘short bonds’ trade.

What About Oils?

XOM  Exxon Mobil - Largest, U.S. / Global
COP  Conoco Philips - U.S.  with Russian exposure
CVX  Chevron Texaco - U.S.
PBR  Petrobras - Brazil
BP   British Petroleum
STO  Norway
E    Eni Italy
TOT  Total - France
RDSA  Royal Dutch Shell
IMO  Imperial Oil - Canada Oil and Oil Sands
SU   Suncor - Canadian Oil Sands
SSL  Sasol - South African Synthetic Oil Company

Oils are generally dropping (click the title if you want the chart) but with BP looking like it has paused in it’s run for the bottom. I’d still avoid it, but if they get the well capped, you could get a ‘short cover rally’ swing trade.

Some Near Oil and Oil Related Comparisions

CZZ is moving nicely. And I own some. May buy some more…

SEE the SEA!

They’ve changed the ticker on this one, so now it comes in two segments. It’s still SEA in letters, but the security ID has changed. So this chart is the historical and the next one is the recent:

SEA - A Boatload of Boats ETF

SEA - A Boatload of Boats ETF

I do wish the folks assigning tickers kept them more stable over time. On this next chart, the missing part of ‘SEA’ from above is that dark reddish bit at the right side. The rest is a variety of ships. Looks like crude oil tankers are in demand. VLCCF is also the abbreviation for Very Large Crude Carrying er Fellow… or Fleet, or something…

Shipping Comparison

Shipping Comparison

OK, shipping is still not moving up. No big ‘economic recovery’ showing up in shipping stocks yet.

The REITS race – Real Estate Investment Trusts

Largely rolled over to dead money at best. Watch ’em and wait.



PEI  Pennsylvania Real Estate - Mall REIT
VTR  Ventas - sr. care, nursing homes, hospitals
PSA  Public Storage - junk storage units
BXP  Boston Properties - office REIT on BosWash corridor  
HCN  Health Care REIT -  extended care, senior care, medical offices
HCP  Health Care Properties - ex. care, senior living, Dr. offices
PCL  Plum Creek Timber - lumber and trees REIT
SPY  S & P 500 broad stock market benchmark
RPT  Ramco Mall REIT
PLD  Prologis - logistics 

Conclusions and Likely Actions

Mostly just sitting on the sidelines now. But moving my cash to non-US currencies and buying selected ’emerging values’. Playing a bit with shorts and collecting oil and gas trust dividends (heavy on gas). I’ll be watching gold for a ‘reentry’ if it starts to move again (and for a potential short if the news flow turns good and the chart rolls over…)

Automated Stock Screens

I’ve moved the automated tool screens here. They are large listings of stock tickers that are not all that visually interesting, so I’m putting them at the bottom. Holler if you don’t like it here.

Running Stocks and ETFs

I have a tool that searches chart patterns and finds those that I describe to it as “interesting”. For this section, “interesting” is those that have price over the 50 day Simple Moving Average. Basically, those that are in a steady up run.

This is most likely to continue, but will at some point each ticker will hit a “dip” and fall off this search, only to return at the next rise. So a high number is good, until it fails, and a low number can mean time for a second bite at the apple. Being ON the list can be as important as rank on the list. Races tell you how to rank them. Realize that these have not been filtered significantly for the quality of the fund, nor for the volume traded, nor for what they hold. I have filtered for “over a buck” price. Each ticker must be looked at for those qualities before buying anything. This is just a way to find “things of interest” to explore.

[chiefio@Hummer reports]$ cat Over50.list 
pf has 4532 valid symbols (356 older than one business day)
   MZF 157
   AYN 155
   NQP 155
   MUS 154
   MQT 153
   NPF 151
   NNF 145
   NNP 145
   BTA 142
   NZH 142
   PWZ 141
   MYI 140
   IQC 137
   NCU 134
   NMP 132
   NKO 131
   IIC 130
   NUM 130
   NXJ 130
   MUJ 129
   VRX 129
   NCP 128
   MYJ 127
   AKP 122
   NUC 118
STL-PA 113
   MPA 108
   AZO 107
   PPM 107
   NCL 106
   SAM 106
   OSP 104
   PDW 103
   UXG 102
   CKR 101
   MLB 99
   NPY 98
   BIE 97
   BYM 97
   MCA 97
   MFL 97
   MYF 97
   MYM 97
   NAC 97
   NMY 97
   NNJ 97
   MIY 96
   MYD 96
   NIO 96
   NXM 96
   AAP 95
   IIM 95
   NPT 95
   VIM 95
   MYC 94
   NWI 93
   CCA 91
   MQY 89
   XFR 88
   IIN 84
   RHQ 84
   NFM 81
   EVM 80
   NVC 80
   NVX 80
  OMTR 80
   BFZ 78
   HTE 77
   NQC 77
   RAA 77
   SZM 77
   EFD 76
   NCO 76
   RLO 76
   SEA 75
    AZ 73
   BLE 73
   CUL 73
   SLI 73
   LGL 72
   DCP 70
   ICH 70
   MHE 69
   NKX 69
   MMV 68
   PZT 68
   IPE 67
   PZC 67
   TIP 67
   LNY 66
   TOF 66
   BIV 65
   BLV 65
   LAG 65
   AGG 64
   BND 64
   CEV 64
   GBF 64
   MBB 64
   BSV 61
   MLN 61
   MVF 60
   PLK 60
   PLW 60
   TLH 60
   TLO 60
   BPK 58
   EDV 58
   MBG 58
   TLT 58
   EIA 57
   NKW 57
   PCK 57
   RXD 57
   TFI 57
   TMF 57
   CXG 55
   IEF 54
   MXN 54
   AGZ 53
   IAX 53
   IEI 53
   ITE 53
   SHY 53
   TUZ 53
   TYD 53
   VXZ 53
   GPU 52
   BUN 49
   BYL 49
   BSB 48
   ECK 48
   STF 48
   EJQ 47
   SPI 47
   BVN 46
   DPS 46
   REC 46
   GVI 45
   MFT 45
   NIF 45
   NVY 45
   SXE 45
   BAF 44
   CCT 44
   DKM 44
   HJE 44
   HYD 44
   NHR 44
   NMI 44
   NQU 44
   NVN 44
  SRCL 44
   TVE 44
   VMM 44
   DFZ 43
   GED 43
   MMU 43
   NXR 43
   NZW 43
   PMO 43
   TRA 43
   VOQ 43
   HTX 42
   HZK 42
   SHM 42
    SY 42
   RSW 41
   SDS 41
   SFK 41
    SH 41
   TMI 41
   ALQ 40
   DOG 40
   FGE 40
   GSB 40
   JYN 40
   SEF 40
   GJF 39
   GLG 39
   NIM 39
   PTV 39
   SUB 39
   TVC 39
  HSTX 38
   MJH 38
   PRB 38
   RRZ 38
   RWM 38
 SCL-P 38
   SDE 38
   SIJ 38
  JAVA 37
   JYF 37
   JZT 37
   PJL 37
   SBB 37
   SDD 37
   SJH 37
   TDA 37
   BCK 36
   BNA 36
   BZA 36
   KVF 36
   MLG 36
   ABA 35
   BHK 35
   EIM 35
   IIL 35
   IMT 35
   KTV 35
   NKL 35
   NMA 35
   NQI 35
   NQJ 35
   NRU 35
   NUN 35
   PCQ 35
   PMF 35
   PML 35
   VGM 35
   ALF 34
   ATT 34
   BKN 34
   DHM 34
   DKR 34
   ENX 34
   GEA 34
   GEC 34
   GJE 34
   HTS 34
   HYA 34
   IJD 34
   MUI 34
   MYN 34
   NMO 34
   NPP 34
   NUO 34
   PTD 34
   PYG 34
   BFK 33
   BSD 33
   GER 33
  ILMN 33
   JZK 33
   MBK 33
   MHN 33
   MSU 33
   NBH 33
   NQM 33
   NVG 33
   NZF 33
   RFA 33
   XFB 33
   ALZ 32
   BFY 32
   BKT 32
   CCU 32
   CYS 32
   GAT 32
   GUI 32
   HZD 32
   KCT 32
   MEN 32
   MGF 32
   MHD 32
   MNE 32
   MUH 32
   NFZ 32
   NPC 32
   NPX 32
   PAA 32
   PFH 32
   PJR 32
   PLV 32
   RER 32
   VAZ 32
   XFD 32
   ABY 31
   ANH 31
   BAP 31
   BDF 31
   CCW 31
   CIB 31
   EPB 31
   EVP 31
   GAH 31
   GHQ 31
   HJJ 31
   HYY 31
   IKR 31
   IMS 31
   JFP 31
   MFM 31
   MIN 31
   MUC 31
   NEM 31
   NPI 31
  NTAP 31
   OIA 31
   PNH 31
    PT 31
   RDY 31
   WRD 31
 BK-PE 30
   CPP 30
   IMC 30
   MVT 30
   NLY 30
   NRN 30
   NXI 30
   RTL 30
   VMV 30
   BCA 29
    EW 29
   JZE 29
   KNR 29
   NCA 29
   PCO 29
   PMX 29
   RBV 29
   WIW 29
   CTR 28
   DKK 28
   DRU 28
   DSM 28
   GEG 28
   GEJ 28
   GJB 28
   GNA 28
   JZL 28
   KVW 28
   MIL 28
   MNP 28
   NUV 28
   VNV 28
    VQ 28
   WCO 28
   ABR 27
   AMT 27
   BMA 27
   BWF 27
   DKI 27
   GUQ 27
   JHS 27
   MBJ 27
   NQS 27
   PYE 27
   SEP 27
   UZV 27
   DEB 26
   EDT 26
   FXY 26
 HE-PU 26
   JBI 26
   JZH 26
   LQD 26
   PHR 26
   SOM 26
   XFL 26
   YCL 26
   ALM 25
   BTM 25
   CPL 25
   FDI 25
   FGC 25
   FLC 25
   GPJ 25
   GPW 25
   IKM 25
   NAZ 25
   PCM 25
   PMK 25
   PTY 25
   RCS 25
   SBI 25
   TAI 25
   VGR 25
   ABV 24
 AKO-B 24
   AZP 24
   CHL 24
   CPV 24
   CRR 24
   DFY 24
   DUC 24
   EEP 24
   FPP 24
   FPT 24
   GAR 24
   GUL 24
 HL-PB 24
   IHS 24
   IMB 24
   KCC 24
   KTN 24
   MUE 24
   NXP 24
   PIM 24
     Q 24
   TOO 24
   WEA 24
 AKO-A 23
   BBK 23
   CHU 23
  CLRT 23
   CRP 23
   ECH 23
   EGF 23
   FMS 23
   GXG 23
   HIF 23
    JO 23
   KVR 23
   MKV 23
   PKO 23
   POH 23
   PYA 23
   RES 23
   SXL 23
    TF 23
   VMO 23
   WMZ 23
   WPZ 23
   ACG 22
   APU 22
   AWH 22
   AZN 22
   BFS 22
   BHD 22
 BK-PF 22
   BMY 22
   BNE 22
   BSP 22
    BT 22
   BWP 22
   BZZ 22
   CHT 22
   CLB 22
   COY 22
   CPK 22
   CWZ 22
    DK 22
    DX 22
    EC 22
   ENI 22
   EOC 22
   GLP 22
   IKJ 22
   JJS 22
   JTP 22
   JZJ 22
   KRJ 22
   MFV 22
   MHY 22
   MWO 22
   NSU 22
   NVO 22
   ODC 22
   OKS 22
   PGX 22
   PNU 22
   PPO 22
   SBS 22
   SNP 22
   SUN 22
   TGP 22
   THD 22
   TLP 22
   TRE 22
   TSI 22
   TSU 22
    TU 22
   UBD 22
   UGP 22
   UMH 22
   AMJ 21
   AMS 21
   ASP 21
   BBF 21
   BGH 21
   BLW 21
   CFL 21
   CIU 21
   DKT 21
   EEQ 21
   GEL 21
   GTS 21
   HNP 21
   HPF 21
   HPI 21
   HSA 21
   IDT 21
   JGG 21
   JZS 21
   KSA 21
  MEND 21
   MRK 21
   MSK 21
   MWE 21
   MWG 21
   MWR 21
   NOW 21
   NXC 21
   PCN 21
   PJT 21
   PYL 21
   PYO 21
   TLK 21
   XCJ 21
   BSE 20
   BTI 20
   CCS 20
   DKY 20
   EMB 20
   EPD 20
   EPE 20
   EVO 20
   EVV 20
   FCO 20
   FEO 20
   GJG 20
   GNI 20
   GOF 20
   HPS 20
   HSF 20
   HSM 20
   ICB 20
   MLV 20
   MSJ 20
   MSZ 20
   NRP 20
   NSH 20
   PFN 20
   PGP 20
   SAN 20
   TEI 20
   TTF 20
   VOD 20
    WW 20
   ACL 19
  ALTR 19
   BAK 19
   BEC 19
   BFR 19
 BRK-A 19
 BRK-B 19
   BZF 19
   CBD 19
   CEO 19
   CMK 19
   COO 19
   CRF 19
   EAD 19
   EDE 19
   EHI 19
   EPI 19
   FCJ 19
   FCZ 19
   FRX 19
   FWF 19
   GFW 19
   GFZ 19
   HMY 19
   HSP 19
   HYV 19
   ICS 19
   IDX 19
    IF 19
   MGB 19
   MJF 19
   NHS 19
   OIC 19
   PCY 19
   PIN 19
   PYB 19
   PYI 19
   PYK 19
   TDI 19
   CFT 18
   DKF 18
   DKW 18
   EMD 18
   FEP 18
   GCF 18
   HFB 18
   KHD 18
   MJY 18
   MSY 18
   MYY 18
   NBW 18
   NGT 18
   NUJ 18
 PE-PB 18
   PHK 18
   PIP 18
   PIY 18
   PJI 18
   RTU 18
   SCC 18
   CIF 17
   CMF 17
   CSJ 17
   DHF 17
   DHY 17
   DKP 17
   DTK 17
   ELC 17
   ERC 17
   FAM 17
   FXF 17
   HYF 17
   ITR 17
   JBO 17
   KTF 17
   MGG 17
   MJT 17
   MKE 17
   MTB 17
   NMB 17
   PDJ 17
   PHF 17
   SJM 17
   VKQ 17
   XFH 17
   XFJ 17
   BPP 16
   ESD 16
   ETB 16
    GB 16
   HAV 16
   HYL 16
   JBR 16
   KMM 16
   MRF 16
   NCB 16
   NMZ 16
   NPM 16
   NPN 16
   PDD 16
   PZA 16
   SIT 16
   TDF 16
   VCV 16
   XKO 16
 ZB-PB 16
   BGZ 15
   BVF 15
   CVU 15
   DDG 15
   GJN 15
   GYA 15
   HYK 15
   MTS 15
   MUA 15
   MZZ 15
   NYF 15
   PNI 15
   PSQ 15
   REW 15
   RLF 15
   RNY 15
   SJF 15
   SKK 15
  SPXU 15
   TGY 15
   TWM 15
   TZA 15
   VBF 15
   VIT 15
   VTJ 15
   XKK 15
   DMF 14
   DMH 14
   DPM 14
   DUG 14
   IDC 14
   IPB 14
   ISM 14
   KHI 14
   KVU 14
   MAB 14
   MMT 14
   MWN 14
   NKR 14
   NMT 14
   NXQ 14
   PIJ 14
   PJE 14
   QID 14
   RXY 14
   SDK 14
   SJL 14
   SSG 14
   TWQ 14
   TYP 14
   VKI 14
   VKL 14
   XVF 14
   BHY 13
   CAV 13
   CXA 13
   DTT 13
  FLIR 13
   FXB 13
   GJL 13
   HWK 13
   JHP 13
   JPS 13
   KTX 13
   MXM 13
   NTG 13
   RBI 13
   SGL 13
   SLA 13
   VPV 13
   VTN 13
   WSF 13
   AEL 12
   APX 12
   BRP 12
   CIK 12
   CNY 12
   DKQ 12
   ELP 12
   HGR 12
   HIH 12
   HNW 12
   IQT 12
   KGS 12
   MAM 12
   MDM 12
   MMP 12
   NAN 12
   NLX 12
   NNO 12
   OPK 12
   PAS 12
   PBG 12
   PIA 12
 PL-PB 12
   PNF 12
   SBP 12
   AFB 11
   AFP 11
   BJZ 11
   BKJ 11
   BLZ 11
   BPL 11
   CXE 11
   DEP 11
   DTF 11
   ETE 11
   ETP 11
   GWF 11
   HEP 11
   HMR 11
   IQI 11
   JWF 11
   KOS 11
   KVN 11
   LEO 11
   MAV 11
   MCR 11
   MPR 11
   MUB 11
   NEA 11
   NOM 11
   NRC 11
   NUW 11
   NXZ 11
   OHI 11
   OIB 11
 PE-PD 11
   PSW 11
   PYN 11
   PYY 11
   SBG 11
   SCR 11
   SMB 11
   SVJ 11
   SVR 11
  TIBX 11
   URX 11
   WPK 11
   XAA 11
   AXG 10
   BNY 10
   CXH 10
   DKL 10
    DT 10
   DTO 10
   DXB 10
   ETQ 10
   FMY 10
   FPL 10
   GBB 10
   GEP 10
   GJJ 10
   GQN 10
   HYJ 10
   IGI 10
   INY 10
   ITM 10
   LWC 10
   MHF 10
   MTT 10
   NGX 10
   NZX 10
   OSM 10
   PLS 10
   PNJ 10
   SMM 10
 SOR-P 10
   SZO 10

Also, let me know what you think of the screens. Let me know if this is of any use to folks, or just takes up way too much room for not much of interest.

Stock Indicators – what and how

If all this talk of indicators is leaving you wondering what the heck I’m talking about, hit the link in the heading of this paragraph and there is a bit of an explanation.

Click for Disclaimers, Disclosures, and Where To Get Charts

Remember that on any stock or ticker I say I’m looking at, you don’t just go buy it. You wait for a stock entry indication to get the best possible entry into the position.


About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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5 Responses to WSW – 11 July 2010

  1. KevinM says:

    Oops. Short market, avoid oil, and sell gold not looking good so far…

  2. E.M.Smith says:

    Things turn. We’re in ‘earnings season’ and Alcoa announced some modestly good numbers. That is, they are making money after laying off 34,000 people and shutting a bunch of factories.

    This has been interpreted as ‘economy recovering’ somehow (even though Chinese demand is down…) since China did buy more semiconductor chips from one company.

    Go figure.

    So I’m still sitting ‘mostly out’ but with some long positions. No short positions. And holding oil and gas trusts for dividends.

    About one in 5 or so of the ‘dip and return to SMA’ will do a crossover to a new regime. This could well be it. But until the pattern is fulfilled, I continue to hold the ‘negative bias’.

    (The reversal pattern is a crossover of the 1 year daily SMA stack to the topside, then a return to the stack that fails to push through it to the downside.)

    As we ‘wedge in’ I’d expect the frequency of direction shifts to increase and the range to narrow. At least until we reach the point of the wedge. Then a new direction will be confirmed.

  3. KevinM says:

    OK I can see it. Also you nailed the dollar.

    I didn’t check the individual stock screens. Individual stocks are too scary.

  4. KevinM says:

    …and here comes that downside risk.

    Yep you were right on short market, avoid oil, and sell gold after all. I did not think PM and the indexes would go down on this options expiry day.

    Score Smith 4-for-4 on the parts of the gam I care about. Just have to be patient enough.

  5. E.M.Smith says:

    Kind of spooky, isn’t it?

    Here is this little chart based simple method that makes darned good calls a lot of the time. ( I hesitate to say “I nailed it” – though I do like the way it sounds ;-) just because it’s the charts that do it, not me… then again, I figured out what to use and how to read it; so maybe I’m a value add here after all…)

    Frankly, my ‘biggest issue’ is just trying to stop thinking and trust the indicators. For every bet I make, I let a dozen good ones go by as I think “Nah, it can’t”… then it does. A “polish point” for me to work on..

Comments are closed.