If you are expecting global warming stuff, it’s here:
Canonical in reverse date order:
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/category/agw-and-gistemp-issues/
Intro page with favorites:
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/gistemp/.
Input Data Issues:
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/category/ncdc-ghcn-issues/
This posting is about the other thing I do, looking at investment markets. Prior postings in this series are available here: https://chiefio.wordpress.com/category/wall-street-week/
Posts with some relevance to trades, but not in the format of a full WSW analysis, are available under this category:
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/category/economics-trading-and-money/
The charts in this posting are live charts, so my comments will describe how it is now, but in a week it will be showing new data and a new week. Since I think it’s more important to be in touch with what the market is doing NOW than to preserve the historical chart, this is, IMHO, a reasonable choice. Just don’t be surprised if the chart I describe is not the one you see a few weeks from now! If you would like to see the historical chart, you may enter custom date ranges on the charting tool at www.bigcharts.com
Daily Notes
None Yet.
Wall Street Week – Sunday, July 11, 2010
OK, I’ve been recommending to be out of the stock market or short for a while now. So far, that’s been a pretty good call. Two weeks ago I said we were entering a time of maximum downside risk as a rise touched the middle of the Simple Moving Average (SMA) stack from below. Then the market promptly fell. That’s pretty good shooting! Unfortunately, due to various ‘life events’ I didn’t come back with a timed ‘enter now’ on the rally from that fall. But trying to ride short rising rallies in a falling market is very hard. You are betting against the dominant trend. (That also illustrates why these postings use live charts and why I explain how to use them rather than just ‘give answers’. You need to be able to make your own decisions even if I’m flat on my back from too much vigor in the garden with the shovel.)
So what has been “hot” in the last week? What was leading this rise and can we learn something from it?
10 Best Performing Industries Industry Name Percent Change (over time selected) DJ US Nonferrous Metals Index 12.93% DJ US Coal Index 11.92% DJ US Travel & Tourism Index 11.81% DJ U.S. Industrial Metals & Mining... 10.93% DJ US Mortgage Finance Index 10.19% DJ U.S. Iron & Steel Index 9.49% DJ US Aluminum Index 9.38% DJ US Basic Resources Index 9.32% DJ US Business Training & Employmen... 9.29% DJ US Asset Managers Index 9.21%
Industrial metals, coal, business services in helping folks prepare for a job and manage money, travel.
All that looks like an ‘industrial recovery play’ But we are in the context of a falling market. Some (perhaps most) of that is not new buyers, but short sellers covering their positions during the rise. Those are the things we saw shorted just a few weeks ago.
Worst performers?
10 Worst Performing Industries Industry Name Percent Change (over time selected) DJ US Apparel Retailers Index 1.22% DJ US Home Improvement Retailers In... 1.42% DJ US Fixed Line Telecommunications... 1.76% DJ US Specialty Retailers Index 1.89% DJ US Telecommunications Index 2.24% DJ US Defense Index 2.64% DJ US General Retailers Index 2.66% DJ US Biotechnology Index 2.67% DJ US Retail Index 2.86% DJ US Platinum & Precious Metals In... 3.04%
“A rising tide raises all boats.”
Even the worst, clothing retailers, made money. Though remember that 2 weeks ago the ‘losers’ were losing in the 20% range over a 3 month period. These gains are a rally in a falling trend.
In the last posting we saw Mexico out performing the US markets. Lets start with a quick check on Mexico and see if it is still doing that.
EWW Mexico ETF vs SPY USA Markets and FXM Mexican Peso ETF
Here we see that the Mexican Peso is more or less stable compared to the US Dollar, but with a slight uplift. You can also see how FXM, the peso, is driven up and down in sync with stock market moves. Large investment flows tend to jiggle a national currency. We can also see that the US market and the Mexican market tend to move together. Both fell from the SMA stack. But a bit of finesse here. Notice that EWW made it through the SMA stack on that last up blip. The SPY tends to ‘call the tune’, and that is why I use it as my major index to plot. As the benchmark. Other indexes and ETFs, like EWW, can give slightly ‘muddier’ signals as the SPY jerks the whole global market around.
OK, some general comments on this chart.
There is a very large and colorful body of pre-existing work and terminology on stock patterns. Some of it ‘speaks to me’ and some does not. Notice that the tops of the price curve are making ‘lower highs’ while the bottoms are making ‘higher lows’ (while the SPY is just lower for both…) IIRC, that is traditionally called a “pennant” after the triangle shaped flag. (There is a ‘flag’ shape as well with parallel sides). But that does not speak to me. So instead I call this “wedging in”. The prices are making a wedge shape headed to a point. When they collide, something has to give.
So we look at the other indicators.
First up, RSI has gone “near 20” and is now rising with “higher lows”. That argues for a breakout to the upside. (But can also mean simply a rally in a flat or falling stock). MACD has “red on top” and is ‘below zero’. Both are negative conditions. BUT the shape of the MACD curve is looking like a ‘crossover to the topside soon’. It’s not here yet, so we stay out. A MACD upside call in a falling context can put you into the ‘flat’ part of a ‘stair steps down” pattern of “flat, fall, flat, fall, flat, fall” and you don’t make money buying a flat part of a falling market.
So what does DMI say? The strength line ( the ADX line or the black line) is at 15. That’s pretty weak. We’ve gone ‘trendless’. You can also see this in the way the SMA lines “weave” together. Not a clear running trend like we had 6 months ago. (Often, the same information can be seen in many ways. Weaving SMA stack, wedging in price peaks, DMI 15 are all saying the same thing. No net gain, just rolling right now.)
So what to do with this information?
Until a trend develops, you can’t ride the trend (or ‘trend trade’). You could go to a much longer time period and make an investment decision based on a 10 year weekly tick-mark chart, or you could move to a ‘fast chart’ and swing trade (or a very fast chart and day trade). Remember that MACD works best on trending stocks. ADX over 25. Slow Stochastic is better for trading ‘rollers’. This chart has some trade indicators on it.
Mexico Slow Stochastic, Williams %R, Rate of Change
Slow Stochastic (that is actually a fairly fast indicator) is at the top, about to roll over. It’s saying to exit that rally and sell the trade right now. Sure, we might start trending higher tomorrow, but for NOW the trade is to sell out. If we get a breakout into a new trend, we can always buy back in. And notice that when SlStoch is down near 20 and crosses over to the topside, that’s a good buy point in a trendless roller.
How about a ‘fast chart”? This is the 10 day, hourly tick-mark, swing traders chart.
Mexico 10 day hourly chart
Same three indicators as in our default charts. RSI, MACD, and DMI. RSI gives a ‘look ahead’, MACD tells us NOW, and DMI confirms our context. DMI has had ‘blue on top’ for a few days (tradeable swing trade) and MACD is, as I type this, positive with a flattening top. The run up is going flat. You can also see that in how the stock price rate of advance has rolled over to flat. You are now taking 100% of the risk for little to no gain. The “swing” is over for now. Maybe it will resume tomorrow, but the bet is to ‘be out’ and wait for a new entry point. (The last entry point was when MACD crossed over to “blue on top” about a week ago and RSI was rising off of a near 20 touch). Now, with RSI approaching 80 is not a time to be buying in, even with DMI ‘blue on top’ as DMI is a lagging indicator.
OK, so much for ‘trade school’ Now we’re going to pull our ‘time scope’ back out to the investor time frame.
The Long Term Context
This is a very long duration chart (5 years) of the S&P 500 (SPY). Notice that we’ve slowly rounded over into a flat trend line. The moving averages are pointing sideways. We’ve got the Slow Stochastic headed up, but with a crossover in the middle. The ‘rebound’ is dying. We had a couple of weeks trade to the upside that ended and turned into a rapid drop in the last couple of weeks, then a short rally that is dying. The MACD indicator is clearly ‘Red On Top’ and crossing the zero line to the negative , so the investment trend is to the downside. DMI is ‘Red On Top’ too, so the major bias stays negative. We’re in a longer term flat to falling market. Our long term context is significantly risky.
5 years, NYSE
We continue to have ‘bear market be out or short’ indications. RSI is still ‘stair steps down’ from an approach to near 80. Williams %R is in the ‘be out now’ range (wait for a cross over of the mid-line to reenter) and Rate Of Change is also saying the trend is down. Notice how the same information can come in several different indicators?
SPY 5 year weekly tick, RSI, Williams %R, ROC
OK, these are long term charts, and the indicators will lag faster charts when a ‘turn’ to the upside comes. But they tell you which way the risk is running. Right now the risk is in the market. Buy things with inherent value and good dividends while you wait. (Oil and gas trusts, gold and gold miners, strong bonds in stable currencies, etc. Though a warning, the gold chart is looking a bit ‘long in the tooth’… we’ll talk about that a bit more below.) But it’s “watching and waiting” time. And yes, a 1 year chart will show trades, but remember the ‘upside’ is in the context of a longer term dead market… You will make as much money (or more) on the short side.
What Is Our Context
Let’s look at the S&P 500 largest stocks in America compared with some other kinds of assets; a 20 year+ maturity bond fund, oil, gold, Yen.
Asset Class Recent Race
SPY The S&P 500 ETF GLD Gold ETF USO Oil ETF FXY Japanese Yen currency fund TLT 20 Year U.S. Treasury Bond fund FXE Euro currency ETF SLV Silver fund BZF Brazilian currency ETF EWA Austria ETF WOOD A wood and paper products fund
Zoomed in on this time scale we can see that the ‘bull run’ trade in the SPY is over for now. We have MACD below the zero line, and we have DMI with red on top and holding there. RSI has a pattern of rolling with the range between 50 and near 20. We’re headed down for a while. At best we would expect a ‘flat roller’ sideways until a trend forms.
The most interesting thing on the chart is the way foreign exchange is acting. Yen, Euro, even Brazilian Reals are rising. Time to be ‘out of dollars’. The rush to the US Dollar is over. (No real surprise. The IMF has announced that the USA needs to raise taxes and stop spending. What they usually are telling Tin Pot Dictators of 3rd world Banana Republics… At least now we know what the IMF thinks of our government’s ‘economic plans’… )
Last posting I’d said:
The Fed decision to leave rates unchanged (at nothing) has kept long bonds rising. Trading ‘long bonds’ was a good trade. (Just don’t marry them, OK? The TLT chart has what looks like a parabolic spike with RSI saying it’s a bit over done at the moment… though MACD and DMI are both supportive of more upside. So look for an an entry after a bit of the steam has come out of it… One does not buy when the price is far from the moving average stack to the upside.)
And TLT has been falling since. Not bad. Not bad at all.
We’ve also got Gold and Silver resuming their rise (though really as a dollar drop). Though the Japanese have announced that they think they need a weaker Yen to stay competitive globally. Watch out for Japanese central bank sales of Yen…
Oil is being volatile (as it always is) but somewhat off a bottom. OK, basic value is there. Australia looks like a pretty solid bottom. “Failure to advance” to the downside is a good thing.
Australia has mostly decided what their companies will be worth (about 1/3 less IF I understand the new tax right) after their government gets done creaming off their ‘skim of the take’… Once they decide what the exact rules are (for the next how long?) it will be reasonable to revisit Australia. For now, it’s on the ‘review’ list.
What about Brazil? A Closer Look.
So we’ve got Brazil dragging on the bottom of this stack. Mexico and India are beating it. But clearly the chart now says Brazil is a good risk again.
Brazil ETF vs Currency Race
EWZ - Brazil BZF - Brazilian Real currency FXI - China EWA - Australia EPI - India - WIsdom Tree fund EWC - Canada EWW - Mexico GUR - Middle East Fund
We have a rising RSI off of a bottom ‘near 20’. MACD is ‘blue on top’ and above zero (if only just barely) and DMI is also ‘blue on top’ (even if the ADX line says the trend is weak for now at 15).
It looks to me like the “Emerging Markets” trade is back on. In a tepid kind of way.
OOTUS – Out Of The U.S.
See the racing stocks tab for currencies and for foreign emerging stock markets for the latest moves.
The currencies are intriguing. We’ve got gold the clear historical winner, but the emerging market currencies are waking up. Even the Euro looks to have bottomed against the US Dollar. Looks like a ‘dump dollars’ trade to me.
Last posting I said:
“Oddly, both the British Pound and the Swiss Franc look to have made bottoms and started a rise. Worth watching.”
That has worked out well too.
Currencies race
But the Gold chart is still worrisome to me:
Gold 1 year daily chart
First notice that we have “Failure To Advance”. The recent tops form a more or less flat line, not a rising one. Not good. We have a recent drop. Someone is selling. Then we have RSI that was near 80, then dribbles downhill away from it. That usually means “falling soon”. Then MACD is below zero, with red on top. Finally, DMI has gone to ‘Red On Top” and the ADX line is gaining strength toward 20. Time to be out of gold.
Some Selected Emerging Markets
Mostly dropping, with a wobble, but with Indonesia staying mostly flat overall (with volatility though…). Tradable runs though. India (EPI) looking good too.
Indonesia Fund 1 Year Chart
This chart compares FXI – China 25 big stocks, EWZ – Brazil, EWO – Austria, EPI – Wisdom Tree India fund, and the Indonesia fund.
IDX Indonesia Fund FXI China EWZ Brazil EWO Austria ('emerging Europe proxy) EPI India with dividends and growth fund
VIX the Volatility Index
We’re getting the peaks characteristic of a falling market, but with lower sterngth over time. Not much trend, but what there is says things going a bit flat.
Volatility Index and Related
VIX - Volatility Index (not a ticker, you can't trade it) VXX - Short term VIX futures ETN (a ticker you can trade) VXZ - Medium term VIX futures ETN (a ticker you can trade) FXY - Japanese Yen SH - "Short" sell of SPY SPY - S&P 500 benchmark IYT - Transports, a leading sector XHB - Homebuilders, a leading sector and "canary" XRT - Retail
The Dollar
This is a ‘US Dollar UP” trade chart of UUP. The down bet is UDN.
Dollar Trade -UP
Last posting I’d said:
The dollar had a parabolic rise away from the simple moving average stack and, as always happens, resolved by moving back to the SMA stack. OK. But what’s next? The indicators still say ‘be long dollars’, but the trend is weakening. Often a spike like that is called a ‘blow off top’ and can indicate a trend ending. If it does end, I’d expect it to go flat rather than reverse to the downside. The ‘bet’ by the numbers would be to more Euro weakness. But central banks can stir things up when they want, so use care. Most interesting to me is that Swiss Frank rise. I’d look at Swiss stocks (though EWL is a SPY match at present) and bonds at this point and with the Japanese Central Bank making cheap yen noises, looks like a swap to FXF for parking cash could be interesting.
That worked out pretty well too. FXF has been rising nicely. And the US dollar is now looking very much like a ‘blowoff top’. Price has punched through the SMA stack. RSI is dropping. MACD and DMI both ‘red on top’. Only complaint I’d have is I was too tepid about how strong the drop would be.
Ideas of the Week
Selected buying in strong emerging markets.
What does the 10 day hourly chart say is happening now?
Here’s a 10 day houly chart of the Dow 30 Industrials (DIA), the S&P 500 (SPY), the Nasdaq tech companies (QQQQ), the Russel 2000 (RUT), and both a Brazil fund (EWZ) and an Australia fund (EWA). It also has a ‘short fund’ (SH) on the chart so you can see what being short this market is doing right now. We also have EWO, an emerging Europe Austria fund, EWW for Mexico and IIF for India.
A nice rise… back to where we were 10 days ago… Good for swing trades and not much else.
10 Day Hourly Interval Broad Market
Other Asset Classes
The 6 month asset class race:
Asset Class Race
SPY S & P 500 US stocks GLD Gold EEM Emerging Markets FXY Japanese Yen JJC Copper TLT Long term bonds 20 year+ USO U.S. Oil DBA Agricultural basket SLV Silver WOOD Wood / Timber
TLT is the winner in the race, but with a dropping dollar, has taken a turn down. More interesting to me is DBA and JJC that look like a bottom is in.
So what happened in the Tech Market relative to world markets?
Tech vs Other Markets
QQQQ Nasdaq 100 mostly Tech companies DIA Dow Jones 30 Industrials SPY S & P 500 largest companies in the U.S.A. MDY Midcap (Middle sized in terms of market capitalization) RUT Russel 2000 - a collection of 2000 companies from small to large. EWZ Brazil fund EWA Australia fund EWO Austria fund EWW Mexico fund
Dropping a pace… I’d be more inclined to bottom fish in the three on the bottom that look like they have started a new rise.
Were Bonds a good idea?
OK, lets take a peak at the Bonds Race but with TBT (the “long term bonds” short sell ETN – that is, the thing that “shorts bonds”) as the main ticker symbol:
Bonds - TBT to Short Them
About 3 months ago, TLT took off and the Bond Short TBT tanked. So folks started to run for bonds about that “Sell in May and Go Away” moment. It’s still working, but the trade is getting a bit old. I’m waiting for TBT to cross over the SMA stack for a ‘short bonds’ trade.
What About Oils?
XOM Exxon Mobil - Largest, U.S. / Global COP Conoco Philips - U.S. with Russian exposure CVX Chevron Texaco - U.S. PBR Petrobras - Brazil PCZ Petro Canada HAS NOW MERGED WITH SU SUNCOR BP British Petroleum STO Norway E Eni Italy TOT Total - France RDSA Royal Dutch Shell IMO Imperial Oil - Canada Oil and Oil Sands SU Suncor - Canadian Oil Sands SSL Sasol - South African Synthetic Oil Company
Oils are generally dropping (click the title if you want the chart) but with BP looking like it has paused in it’s run for the bottom. I’d still avoid it, but if they get the well capped, you could get a ‘short cover rally’ swing trade.
Some Near Oil and Oil Related Comparisions
CZZ is moving nicely. And I own some. May buy some more…
SEE the SEA!
They’ve changed the ticker on this one, so now it comes in two segments. It’s still SEA in letters, but the security ID has changed. So this chart is the historical and the next one is the recent:
SEA - A Boatload of Boats ETF
I do wish the folks assigning tickers kept them more stable over time. On this next chart, the missing part of ‘SEA’ from above is that dark reddish bit at the right side. The rest is a variety of ships. Looks like crude oil tankers are in demand. VLCCF is also the abbreviation for Very Large Crude Carrying er Fellow… or Fleet, or something…
Shipping Comparison
OK, shipping is still not moving up. No big ‘economic recovery’ showing up in shipping stocks yet.
The REITS race – Real Estate Investment Trusts
Largely rolled over to dead money at best. Watch ’em and wait.
REITS Race
PEI Pennsylvania Real Estate - Mall REIT VTR Ventas - sr. care, nursing homes, hospitals PSA Public Storage - junk storage units BXP Boston Properties - office REIT on BosWash corridor HCN Health Care REIT - extended care, senior care, medical offices HCP Health Care Properties - ex. care, senior living, Dr. offices PCL Plum Creek Timber - lumber and trees REIT SPY S & P 500 broad stock market benchmark RPT Ramco Mall REIT PLD Prologis - logistics
Conclusions and Likely Actions
Mostly just sitting on the sidelines now. But moving my cash to non-US currencies and buying selected ’emerging values’. Playing a bit with shorts and collecting oil and gas trust dividends (heavy on gas). I’ll be watching gold for a ‘reentry’ if it starts to move again (and for a potential short if the news flow turns good and the chart rolls over…)
Automated Stock Screens
I’ve moved the automated tool screens here. They are large listings of stock tickers that are not all that visually interesting, so I’m putting them at the bottom. Holler if you don’t like it here.
Running Stocks and ETFs
I have a tool that searches chart patterns and finds those that I describe to it as “interesting”. For this section, “interesting” is those that have price over the 50 day Simple Moving Average. Basically, those that are in a steady up run.
This is most likely to continue, but will at some point each ticker will hit a “dip” and fall off this search, only to return at the next rise. So a high number is good, until it fails, and a low number can mean time for a second bite at the apple. Being ON the list can be as important as rank on the list. Races tell you how to rank them. Realize that these have not been filtered significantly for the quality of the fund, nor for the volume traded, nor for what they hold. I have filtered for “over a buck” price. Each ticker must be looked at for those qualities before buying anything. This is just a way to find “things of interest” to explore.
[chiefio@Hummer reports]$ cat Over50.list pf has 4532 valid symbols (356 older than one business day) MZF 157 AYN 155 NQP 155 MUS 154 MQT 153 NPF 151 NNF 145 NNP 145 BTA 142 NZH 142 PWZ 141 MYI 140 IQC 137 NCU 134 NMP 132 NKO 131 IIC 130 NUM 130 NXJ 130 MUJ 129 VRX 129 NCP 128 MYJ 127 AKP 122 NUC 118 STL-PA 113 MPA 108 AZO 107 PPM 107 NCL 106 SAM 106 OSP 104 PDW 103 UXG 102 CKR 101 MLB 99 NPY 98 SFI-PD 98 SFI-PE 98 SFI-PF 98 BIE 97 BYM 97 MCA 97 MFL 97 MYF 97 MYM 97 NAC 97 NMY 97 NNJ 97 MIY 96 MYD 96 NIO 96 NXM 96 AAP 95 FCH-PA 95 IIM 95 NPT 95 VIM 95 MYC 94 NWI 93 CCA 91 MQY 89 XFR 88 IIN 84 RHQ 84 NFM 81 EVM 80 NVC 80 NVX 80 OMTR 80 XEL-PB 79 BFZ 78 HTE 77 NQC 77 RAA 77 SZM 77 EFD 76 NCO 76 RLO 76 SEA 75 AZ 73 BLE 73 CUL 73 SLI 73 LGL 72 DCP 70 ICH 70 EQR-PE 69 MHE 69 NKX 69 MMV 68 NCT-PB 68 PZT 68 IPE 67 PZC 67 TIP 67 LNY 66 TOF 66 BIV 65 BLV 65 LAG 65 AGG 64 BND 64 CEV 64 GBF 64 GGT-PB 64 MBB 64 XEL-PD 64 PNC-PD 62 BSV 61 GXP-PA 61 MLN 61 MVF 60 PLK 60 PLW 60 TLH 60 TLO 60 BPK 58 EDV 58 MBG 58 TLT 58 EIA 57 NKW 57 PCK 57 RXD 57 TFI 57 TMF 57 CXG 55 VNO-PA 55 DTE-PA 54 IEF 54 MXN 54 AGZ 53 IAX 53 IEI 53 ITE 53 SHY 53 TUZ 53 TYD 53 VXZ 53 GPU 52 BUN 49 BXS-PA 49 BYL 49 BSB 48 ECK 48 OFG-PA 48 STF 48 BFS-PA 47 EJQ 47 SPI 47 BVN 46 DPS 46 REC 46 GVI 45 MFT 45 NIF 45 NVY 45 SXE 45 BAF 44 CCT 44 DKM 44 HJE 44 HYD 44 NHR 44 NMI 44 NQU 44 NVN 44 SRCL 44 TVE 44 VMM 44 DFZ 43 GED 43 MMU 43 NXR 43 NZW 43 PMO 43 TRA 43 VOQ 43 HTX 42 HZK 42 SHM 42 SY 42 RSW 41 SDS 41 SFK 41 SH 41 TMI 41 ALQ 40 DOG 40 FGE 40 GSB 40 JYN 40 SEF 40 GJF 39 GLG 39 NIM 39 PTV 39 SUB 39 TVC 39 HSTX 38 MJH 38 PRB 38 RRZ 38 RWM 38 SCL-P 38 SDE 38 SIJ 38 SPG-PI 38 JAVA 37 JYF 37 JZT 37 PJL 37 SBB 37 SDD 37 SJH 37 TDA 37 BCK 36 BNA 36 BZA 36 KVF 36 MLG 36 ABA 35 BHK 35 EIM 35 IIL 35 IMT 35 KTV 35 NKL 35 NMA 35 NQI 35 NQJ 35 NRU 35 NUN 35 PCQ 35 PMF 35 PML 35 VGM 35 ALF 34 ATT 34 BKN 34 DHM 34 DKR 34 ENX 34 GEA 34 GEC 34 GJE 34 HTS 34 HYA 34 IJD 34 MUI 34 MYN 34 NMO 34 NPP 34 NUO 34 PTD 34 PYG 34 BFK 33 BSD 33 GER 33 ILMN 33 JZK 33 MBK 33 MHN 33 MSU 33 NBH 33 NQM 33 NVG 33 NZF 33 RFA 33 XFB 33 ALZ 32 BFY 32 BKT 32 CCU 32 CYS 32 GAT 32 GUI 32 HZD 32 KCT 32 MEN 32 MGF 32 MHD 32 MNE 32 MUH 32 NFZ 32 NPC 32 NPX 32 PAA 32 PFH 32 PJR 32 PLV 32 RER 32 SWX-PB 32 VAZ 32 XFD 32 ABY 31 ANH 31 BAP 31 BDF 31 CCW 31 CIB 31 EPB 31 EVP 31 GAH 31 GHQ 31 HJJ 31 HYY 31 IKR 31 IMS 31 JFP 31 MFM 31 MIN 31 MUC 31 NEM 31 NPI 31 NTAP 31 OIA 31 PNH 31 PT 31 RDY 31 WRD 31 BK-PE 30 CPP 30 IMC 30 MVT 30 NLY 30 NRN 30 NXI 30 RTL 30 VMV 30 BCA 29 EW 29 JZE 29 KNR 29 NCA 29 PCO 29 PMX 29 RBV 29 WIW 29 CTR 28 DKK 28 DRU 28 DSM 28 GEG 28 GEJ 28 GJB 28 GNA 28 JZL 28 KVW 28 MIL 28 MNP 28 NUV 28 VNV 28 VQ 28 WCO 28 ABR 27 AMT 27 BMA 27 BWF 27 DKI 27 GUQ 27 JHS 27 MBJ 27 NQS 27 PYE 27 SEP 27 UZV 27 DEB 26 EDT 26 FXY 26 HE-PU 26 JBI 26 JZH 26 LQD 26 PHR 26 SOM 26 XFL 26 YCL 26 ALM 25 BTM 25 CPL 25 FDI 25 FGC 25 FLC 25 GPJ 25 GPW 25 IKM 25 NAZ 25 PCM 25 PMK 25 PTY 25 RCS 25 SBI 25 TAI 25 VGR 25 ABV 24 AKO-B 24 AZP 24 CHL 24 CPV 24 CRR 24 DFY 24 DUC 24 EEP 24 FPP 24 FPT 24 GAR 24 GUL 24 HL-PB 24 IHS 24 IMB 24 KCC 24 KTN 24 MUE 24 NXP 24 PIM 24 Q 24 TOO 24 WEA 24 AKO-A 23 BBK 23 CHU 23 CLRT 23 CRP 23 ECH 23 EGF 23 FMS 23 GXG 23 HIF 23 JO 23 KVR 23 MKV 23 PKO 23 POH 23 PYA 23 RES 23 SXL 23 TF 23 VMO 23 WMZ 23 WPZ 23 ACG 22 APU 22 AWH 22 AZN 22 BFS 22 BHD 22 BK-PF 22 BMY 22 BNE 22 BSP 22 BT 22 BWP 22 BZZ 22 CHT 22 CLB 22 COY 22 CPK 22 CWZ 22 DK 22 DX 22 EC 22 ENI 22 EOC 22 GAM-PB 22 GLP 22 IKJ 22 JJS 22 JTP 22 JZJ 22 KRJ 22 MFV 22 MHY 22 MWO 22 NSU 22 NVO 22 ODC 22 OKS 22 PGX 22 PNU 22 PPO 22 RYAAY 22 SBS 22 SNP 22 SUN 22 TGP 22 THD 22 TLP 22 TRE 22 TSI 22 TSU 22 TU 22 UBD 22 UGP 22 UMH 22 AMJ 21 AMS 21 ASP 21 BBF 21 BGH 21 BLW 21 CFL 21 CIU 21 DKT 21 EEQ 21 GEL 21 GTS 21 HNP 21 HPF 21 HPI 21 HSA 21 IDT 21 JGG 21 JPM-PK 21 JZS 21 KSA 21 MEND 21 MRK 21 MSK 21 MWE 21 MWG 21 MWR 21 NOW 21 NXC 21 PCN 21 PGE-PB 21 PJT 21 PYL 21 PYO 21 TLK 21 XCJ 21 BSE 20 BTI 20 CCS 20 DKY 20 EMB 20 EPD 20 EPE 20 EVO 20 EVV 20 FCO 20 FEO 20 GJG 20 GNI 20 GOF 20 HPS 20 HSF 20 HSM 20 ICB 20 MLV 20 MSJ 20 MSZ 20 NRP 20 NSH 20 PFN 20 PGP 20 SAN 20 TEI 20 TTF 20 VOD 20 WW 20 ACL 19 ALTR 19 BAK 19 BEC 19 BFR 19 BRK-A 19 BRK-B 19 BZF 19 CBD 19 CEO 19 CMK 19 COO 19 CRF 19 EAD 19 EDE 19 EHI 19 EPI 19 FCJ 19 FCZ 19 FRX 19 FWF 19 GFW 19 GFZ 19 HMY 19 HSP 19 HYV 19 ICS 19 IDX 19 IF 19 MGB 19 MJF 19 NHS 19 OIC 19 PCY 19 PIN 19 PYB 19 PYI 19 PYK 19 TDI 19 TLKGY.PK 19 CFT 18 DKF 18 DKW 18 EMD 18 FEP 18 GCF 18 HFB 18 KHD 18 MJY 18 MSY 18 MYY 18 NBW 18 NGT 18 NUJ 18 PE-PB 18 PHK 18 PIP 18 PIY 18 PJI 18 RTU 18 SCC 18 CIF 17 CMF 17 CSJ 17 DHF 17 DHY 17 DKP 17 DTK 17 ELC 17 ERC 17 FAM 17 FXF 17 HYF 17 ITR 17 JBO 17 KTF 17 MGG 17 MJT 17 MKE 17 MTB 17 NMB 17 PDJ 17 PHF 17 SJM 17 VKQ 17 XFH 17 XFJ 17 BPP 16 ESD 16 ETB 16 GB 16 HAV 16 HYL 16 JBR 16 KMM 16 MRF 16 NCB 16 NMZ 16 NPM 16 NPN 16 PDD 16 PZA 16 SIT 16 TDF 16 VCV 16 XKO 16 ZB-PB 16 BGZ 15 BVF 15 CVU 15 DDG 15 GJN 15 GYA 15 HYK 15 MTS 15 MUA 15 MZZ 15 NYF 15 PNI 15 PSQ 15 REW 15 RLF 15 RNY 15 SJF 15 SKK 15 SPXU 15 TGY 15 TWM 15 TZA 15 VBF 15 VIT 15 VTJ 15 XKK 15 DMF 14 DMH 14 DPM 14 DUG 14 IDC 14 IPB 14 ISM 14 KHI 14 KVU 14 MAB 14 MMT 14 MWN 14 NKR 14 NMT 14 NXQ 14 PIJ 14 PJE 14 QID 14 RXY 14 SDK 14 SJL 14 SSG 14 TWQ 14 TYP 14 VKI 14 VKL 14 XVF 14 BHY 13 CAV 13 CXA 13 DTT 13 FLIR 13 FXB 13 GJL 13 HWK 13 JHP 13 JPS 13 KTX 13 MXM 13 NTG 13 RBI 13 SGL 13 SLA 13 VPV 13 VTN 13 WSF 13 AEL 12 APX 12 BRP 12 CIK 12 CNY 12 DKQ 12 ELP 12 HGR 12 HIH 12 HNW 12 IQT 12 KGS 12 MAM 12 MDM 12 MMP 12 NAN 12 NLX 12 NNO 12 OPK 12 PAS 12 PBG 12 PIA 12 PL-PB 12 PNF 12 SBP 12 AFB 11 AFP 11 ALP-PP 11 BJZ 11 BKJ 11 BLZ 11 BPL 11 CXE 11 DEP 11 DTF 11 ETE 11 ETP 11 GWF 11 HEP 11 HMR 11 IQI 11 JWF 11 KOS 11 KVN 11 LEO 11 MAV 11 MCR 11 MPR 11 MUB 11 NEA 11 NOM 11 NRC 11 NUW 11 NXZ 11 OHI 11 OIB 11 PE-PD 11 PSW 11 PYN 11 PYY 11 SBG 11 SCR 11 SMB 11 SVJ 11 SVR 11 TIBX 11 URX 11 WPK 11 XAA 11 AXG 10 BNY 10 CXH 10 DKL 10 DT 10 DTO 10 DXB 10 ETQ 10 FMY 10 FPL 10 GBB 10 GEP 10 GJJ 10 GPE-PX 10 GQN 10 HYJ 10 IGI 10 INY 10 ITM 10 LWC 10 MHF 10 MTT 10 NGX 10 NZX 10 OFC-PH 10 OSM 10 PLS 10 PNJ 10 RVT-PB 10 SMM 10 SOR-P 10 SZO 10
Also, let me know what you think of the screens. Let me know if this is of any use to folks, or just takes up way too much room for not much of interest.
Stock Indicators – what and how
If all this talk of indicators is leaving you wondering what the heck I’m talking about, hit the link in the heading of this paragraph and there is a bit of an explanation.
Click for Disclaimers, Disclosures, and Where To Get Charts
Remember that on any stock or ticker I say I’m looking at, you don’t just go buy it. You wait for a stock entry indication to get the best possible entry into the position.
Oops. Short market, avoid oil, and sell gold not looking good so far…
Things turn. We’re in ‘earnings season’ and Alcoa announced some modestly good numbers. That is, they are making money after laying off 34,000 people and shutting a bunch of factories.
This has been interpreted as ‘economy recovering’ somehow (even though Chinese demand is down…) since China did buy more semiconductor chips from one company.
Go figure.
So I’m still sitting ‘mostly out’ but with some long positions. No short positions. And holding oil and gas trusts for dividends.
About one in 5 or so of the ‘dip and return to SMA’ will do a crossover to a new regime. This could well be it. But until the pattern is fulfilled, I continue to hold the ‘negative bias’.
(The reversal pattern is a crossover of the 1 year daily SMA stack to the topside, then a return to the stack that fails to push through it to the downside.)
As we ‘wedge in’ I’d expect the frequency of direction shifts to increase and the range to narrow. At least until we reach the point of the wedge. Then a new direction will be confirmed.
OK I can see it. Also you nailed the dollar.
I didn’t check the individual stock screens. Individual stocks are too scary.
…and here comes that downside risk.
Yep you were right on short market, avoid oil, and sell gold after all. I did not think PM and the indexes would go down on this options expiry day.
Score Smith 4-for-4 on the parts of the gam I care about. Just have to be patient enough.
Kind of spooky, isn’t it?
Here is this little chart based simple method that makes darned good calls a lot of the time. ( I hesitate to say “I nailed it” – though I do like the way it sounds ;-) just because it’s the charts that do it, not me… then again, I figured out what to use and how to read it; so maybe I’m a value add here after all…)
Frankly, my ‘biggest issue’ is just trying to stop thinking and trust the indicators. For every bet I make, I let a dozen good ones go by as I think “Nah, it can’t”… then it does. A “polish point” for me to work on..