POTUS Buzz Kill

Russel 2000 Stocks vs Dow 30, S&P 500, Nasdaq as POTUS Speaks

Russel 2000 Stocks vs Dow 30, S&P 500, Nasdaq as POTUS Speaks

That’s the live chart, here is the saved version. (Since in 2 market days the above chart will show 2 very different days and the descriptive text below will make no sense for those days…)

Russel 2000 Stocks vs Dow 30, S&P 500, Nasdaq as POTUS Speaks

Russel 2000 Stocks vs Dow 30, S&P 500, Nasdaq as POTUS Speaks

Today, the POTUS gave a speech. And a fine speech it was. But it’s a real market Buzz Kill. Notice how the stock markets are on a fine run (from yesterday afternoon until 10:30 am Eastern), right up until when the POTUS started talking? He finished just a little after Noon Eastern Time, and you can see a bit of a recovery starting. Just an accident? A “fluke” of coincidence?

Also notice that FXY, the Japanese Yen, takes a nice rise during his speech today. A bit of a ‘run to safety’ indication. Money leaving stocks, headed for yen, when the POTUS pontificates.

Well…. Look at yesterday. He spoke then, too. Yesterday is a bit complicated by the Beige Book being released about 1 PM, so some of that dip may be Beige Book related (The Fed notes on what they were thinking…); but, 2 days in a row starts to be a pattern….

I suppose one could say something like: “Mr. President, please, STFU for all our sakes.”, but that would be rude… Perhaps better would be the simple reminder that when the POTUS talks, markets listen, and they don’t like what they hear…

FWIW, next week Congress is back in session. There is a statistical study that shows you can make money by simply owning stocks when Congress is not in session and lose money when it is. Per that, and the POTUS Effect (he has said he will be talking a lot in the lead up to the election, stumping for his cause…), I think it may be time to start easing out of risky trades. I’ll do a full WSW this weekend, but … just sayin’…

The POTUS Trade

So now I’m wondering just how much money could be made from taking the presidential calendar and about 1 to 2 hours before he speaks, buying a short position, then selling out at the end of the speech. (SH, RWM, TWM, QID etc.) Bears watching. ;-)

About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
This entry was posted in Economics - Trading - and Money, Political Current Events and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink.

7 Responses to POTUS Buzz Kill

  1. P.G. Sharrow says:

    Yes the talker in chief just can’t shut up. It is his only strong trait, after that he is just an empty suit. At least now Jimmy Carter is no longer the worst president of the last 100 years.
    Oh well! In time this too will pass.

  2. tckev says:

    POTUS goes from “Yes we can!” to “we’re not there yet”.

    In his own words…
    A message to voters and the sluggish economy – “I feel your pain.”
    …to…
    “For all the progress we’ve made, we’re not there yet, and that means people are frustrated and people are angry,”
    …and…
    “I will keep on trying to stimulate jobs and growth for as long as I am president of the United States,”
    …a recap POTUS said….
    “We’ve made investments that will strengthen the economy over the long run, but we’re not there yet,”

    What did POTUS say that could possibly spook the market? ;¬}

  3. Claw in Ga says:

    An associate and myself have noticed this coincidence? phenomenon? re-occurring tragedy about two months ago… as soon as Potus speaks from where ever we have an avg 100 pt drop in DJIA. Now I haven’t done the research, I’m just hypothesizing.

    BTW I’ve enjoyed your blog for a while came for climate talk, came back for the market insights, Thanks

  4. PhilJourdan says:

    “Bears Watching”?

    Bad pun! *Groan*

  5. E.M.Smith says:

    @Claw in Ga: Glad you like (both)! I’m presently at a bit of a crossroads moment for the climate stuff. I’m pretty sure I’ve worked out what’s wrong and how it’s wrong. I’ve gone through GIStemp pretty completely, and GHCN down to the “making the monthly averages” number. So what’s left?

    Doing the “how do daily values compare to monthly averages” to validate the suspicion that the “QA” process biases the result.

    Doing a compare of ‘kept’ vs ‘tossed’ stations using non-GHCN raw data for the tossed and bypassing GIStemp and it’s biases.

    Validate / prove that Smith’s Volatility Surmise is a major factor and not just a modest factor (added to the dozen other modest factors to make a major impact…)

    chase down exactly what changed at that circa 1990 ‘haircut’ on a per station basis (that ought to pretty much nail what caused it).

    Do an airport vs near airport audit using the COOP stations near the airports to demonstrate the bias from tarmac and ASOS.

    Make an alternative to GIStemp (SmithTemp?) that uses the dT/dt method or similar then goes to the grid / box and arial adjustment process and show that the changes are in the data with onset in 1990 for that level of view. I’d also need to add a decent non-splice artifact ‘homogenizing’ step.

    or what?

    I’m looking for inspiration to pick a new direction. And looking at the amount of work and asking how to get it done on no funding and with a stock trading day job.

    As the same time, some ‘life challenges’ are focusing me away from the climate stuff. I’ve got to make tuition for the next year and I’ve got to make enough to get to Florida for a month and I’ve got some other ‘stuff’ to deal with like house maintenance and …

    So….

    I’ve been doing more market stuff and less temperature stuff. It will have to stay that way until either:

    1) I make a bunch of extra money trading
    or
    2) Somebody wants to pay me to do climate stuff as my day job
    or
    3) The market enters a clear trend and I can just sit in a position for a month or three (and thus have time and get bored…)

    But we’ll see. Inspiration strikes at the oddest times…

    @PhilJourdan: What? I thought it was very punny myself! ;-) but glad someone noticed…

  6. PhilJourdan says:

    The better a pun is, the more “bad” it is. ;)

  7. E.M.Smith says:

    WOW, you can sure see the Bank of Japan “surprise” intervention in the Yen price! Talk about a ‘step function’ down…

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