That’s the live chart, here is the saved version. (Since in 2 market days the above chart will show 2 very different days and the descriptive text below will make no sense for those days…)
Today, the POTUS gave a speech. And a fine speech it was. But it’s a real market Buzz Kill. Notice how the stock markets are on a fine run (from yesterday afternoon until 10:30 am Eastern), right up until when the POTUS started talking? He finished just a little after Noon Eastern Time, and you can see a bit of a recovery starting. Just an accident? A “fluke” of coincidence?
Also notice that FXY, the Japanese Yen, takes a nice rise during his speech today. A bit of a ‘run to safety’ indication. Money leaving stocks, headed for yen, when the POTUS pontificates.
Well…. Look at yesterday. He spoke then, too. Yesterday is a bit complicated by the Beige Book being released about 1 PM, so some of that dip may be Beige Book related (The Fed notes on what they were thinking…); but, 2 days in a row starts to be a pattern….
I suppose one could say something like: “Mr. President, please, STFU for all our sakes.”, but that would be rude… Perhaps better would be the simple reminder that when the POTUS talks, markets listen, and they don’t like what they hear…
FWIW, next week Congress is back in session. There is a statistical study that shows you can make money by simply owning stocks when Congress is not in session and lose money when it is. Per that, and the POTUS Effect (he has said he will be talking a lot in the lead up to the election, stumping for his cause…), I think it may be time to start easing out of risky trades. I’ll do a full WSW this weekend, but … just sayin’…
The POTUS Trade
So now I’m wondering just how much money could be made from taking the presidential calendar and about 1 to 2 hours before he speaks, buying a short position, then selling out at the end of the speech. (SH, RWM, TWM, QID etc.) Bears watching. ;-)