Italian New Little Ice Age?

Italy, covered in snow

Italy, covered in snow

Original Image

Somewhere along the line I opened a link to this site:

http://daltonsminima.altervista.org

and found this article:

http://daltonsminima.altervista.org/?p=12616

I’ve lost track of the history, so don’t know if it was from a tip someone sent me, or something I saw in tips & notes on WUWT. For whoever brought it up: h/t to you!

The article is in Italian. I did “ok” reading it, but eventually gave in and used Google Translate (that is available on the right side of the home page of the article). That gave an OK rendition, but with a lot of “Italianisms” still leaking through. It would likely benefit from a proper translation into English. Then again, many readers here are not native speakers of English, so perhaps Italian will be closer to your mother tongue anyway ;-)

The thesis it presents is one I’ve intended to write about. That we have a normal cyclical pattern of warm, to a very warm spike, followed by a reversal to the downside as the sun quiets. THEN the Gulf Stream slows, and we enter a New Little Ice Age.

The author has done a better job that I would likely have done, with some very nice graphics. So I don’t see what’s to be gained by my writing the same thing, but in English.

He also ties in the historical pattern of earthquakes and volcanism along with a nice treatment of one of my favorite themes: That increased rainfall is the proper measure of heat flow off the planet. The increase in flooding world wide indicates we are cooling, and fast. And heat flow is far more important than temperatures (that at most give you 1/3 of the ‘issue’ as you are missing specific heat and heat of fusion / vaporization all over the water cycle).

So please, give it a read in the language of your choice. Then let me know if you think I ought to ‘recast’ the same stuff in my own page.
I think it works as is, but I’m comfortable reading machine translations and do OK in reading Italian (with a dictionary to hand).

Some quotes (translations by Google) with my free translation preceding:

Many folks make the simplistic mistake of thinking the cause of glaciation is just a slowing down of the Gulf Stream.
In fact, when higher solar activity warms the poles and Greenland, melting glaciers up to 5 km thick, and a good part of that runs into the ocean lowering salinity and that then blocks the Gulf Stream at the north end: If solar activity were stable you would only have a slight increase in the cold arctic air flowing into areas on the European / Asian part of the northern hemisphere. And, to a lesser extent, into North America; but this would not be a precursor of an Ice Age, but rather just more cooling in winter.

A mistake that many do is simplistic to attribute the slowdown in the simple Running North Atlantic as a contributory cause of glaciation.
In fact, when the solar activity increase going to warm the poles and, consequently, the Greenland, melting glaciers up to 5 km thick, once a good part of it is dissolved by lowering the salinity of the water and then going to clog the outlet, if solar activity were maintained stable without undergoing major changes you would have only a slight increase in currents of cold air of Arctic origin to areas east of the northern hemisphere, and to a lesser extent also to North America but this would not be minimally precursor of an ice age but rather just more cooling in winter.

Un errore molto semplicistico che fanno in molti è quello di attribuire il semplice rallentamento della Corrende Nord Atlantica come concausa di una glaciazione.
In realtà se l’attività solare incrementasse andando a riscaldare i poli e di conseguenza anche la Groelandia,sciogliendone i ghiacciai spessi fino a 5 km,una volta che una buona parte di essi si sarà sciolta abbassando la salinità dell’acqua e quindi andando a inceppare tale corrente,se l’attività solare si mantenesse stabile senza subire importanti variazioni si avrebbe solo un leggero incremento delle correnti d’aria fredda di origine artica verso le aree a est dell’emisfero nord,e in minor quantità anche verso il Nord America,ma ciò non sarebbe minimamente precursore di una glaciazione ma bensì solo di un maggior raffreddamento invernale .
Per dar luogo ad una glaciazione sono importanti 2 fattori,un decremento dell’attività solare che però prima deve esser stato preceduto da un incremento di quest’ultima.

To give rise to an Ice Age, there are two important factors. A decrease in solar activity. But one which must first be preceded by an increase in solar activity. During the increase phase, the climate must heat to the point where there is a release of fresh water into the North Atlantic sufficient to disrupt the flow of heat that powers the Gulf Stream. Changing the salinity of the water. Once the solar activity then declines, that would disturb the heat flow to Europe. This would happen when the normal 11 year cycle of decline is coincident with a 150-160 year longer cycle of decline in solar output. Then weather begins to cool as the sun continues to weaken in magnetic and radiative power, followed by a near zero level of sunspots.

Then, with the Gulf Stream interrupted, or severely weakened by lower solar activity, you have all the factors that are needed to result in a New Little Ice Age in just a few years.

To give rise to an ice age are two important factors, a decrease in solar activity which, however, must first be preceded by an increase in the latter.
During this increase in solar activity on climate must have undergone heating to the point of mitigating the glaciers at the poles resulting in removal of them and the subsequent release of freshwater into the North Atlantic that would disturb the heat flow of this power by altering the density water, once the solar activity is declining following a regular cycle, in addition to the eleven-year, of 150-160 years, but the weather begins to cool as the sun continues to weaken its magnetic activity and hence the its radiation followed by an almost total zero sunspots.
With the North Atlantic Current interrupted or severely weakened solar activity increasingly scarce then you have all the factors that will in a few years to a new Little Ice Age.

Per dar luogo ad una glaciazione sono importanti 2 fattori,un decremento dell’attività solare che però prima deve esser stato preceduto da un incremento di quest’ultima.
Durante questo incremento dell’attività solare il clima deve aver subito un riscaldamento al punto da mitigare i ghiacciai ai poli con conseguente ritiro di essi e la successiva immissione di acqua dolce nel Nord Atlantico che andrebbe a disturbare il flusso termico di tale corrente alterando la densità dell’acqua,una volta che l’attività solare va calando seguendo un regolare ciclo,oltre a quello undecennale,di 150-160 anni,il clima inizia a raffreddarsi ma mano che il sole continua a indebolire la propria attività magnetica e di conseguenza il proprio irradiamento seguito da un quasi totale azzeramento delle macchie solari.
Con la Corrente Nord Atlantica interrotta o fortemente indebolita e l’attività solare sempre più scarsa allora si avrebbero tutti i fattori che porteranno nel giro di pochi anni ad una nuova Piccola Era Glaciale.

In Conclusion

Give it a read. I think he’s got it right (though with a little bit of added emotionalism toward the end, then again, Italians always seem more emotional to me ;-)

Then let me know if you are OK as is or if I ought to put a redo on my todo list…

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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8 Responses to Italian New Little Ice Age?

  1. E.M.Smith says:

    OK, so is there NO opinion about this piece? Everyone cares not one whit about the article in Italian? Or everyone is fine with reading it in Italian? Or everyone just takes one look at the machine translation and walks away? (In which case I really OUGHT to translate it as it is a good article).

    So which is it? Ignoring the whole thing or happy with the machine version?

  2. I read it I I was who put the link on WUWT. The Google translation renders, at least in this case, a good translation.
    (I don’t speak Italian but my mother tongue is Spanish)
    The graphs of the northern current slowing and the last comment summarizes all:

    Then, with the Gulf Stream interrupted, or severely weakened by lower solar activity, you have all the factors that are needed to result in a New Little Ice Age in just a few years.

    It would be advisable, if possible, to reproduce those graphs here.

  3. The author signs as “Alex” but the post is presented by Michele Casati, a Tallbloke’ s Blog regular. If you need his email, I have it.

  4. Now we will need a post: “How to build an Igloo” :-)

  5. We should expect a commentary from our friend M.Vukcevic, as this has a close relation with his theory:
    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NATA.htm

  6. M.Vukcevic has already made this observation at:
    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NFC10.htm

  7. Michele says:

    Other new Search :

    5000BP -15000BP sotto la lente d’ingrandimento — Prima parte –
    http://daltonsminima.altervista.org/?p=12200

    5000BP -15000BP sotto la lente d’ingrandimento — Seconda parte –
    http://daltonsminima.altervista.org/?p=12219

    Il campo magnetico dell’eliosfera e gli eventi sismici sul nostro pianeta
    http://daltonsminima.altervista.org/?p=11690

    Bye bye

    Michele,
    Staff NIA

Comments are closed.