Storm Coming You Say?

OK, this is a blatant play for sympathy.

Here I am, curled up inside, listening to the steady drum drip splat of rain for the last several hours and what goes by on the news crawler on the TV? “California braces for a storm” expected to come…

OK, I”m thinking, if this isn’t it, what is it? The crawler continues to scroll and says the Sierra Nevada is bracing for a big dump of snow, more rain on the way, wind and more headed toward California.

So what’s my handy dandy radar window say? What’s the “pre-storm warm up rain” look like?

San Jose / San Francisco Cloud Reflectivity 28 Dec 2010

San Jose / San Francisco Cloud Reflectivity 28 Dec 2010

This is the ‘cloud reflectivity’. Keep in mind that the radar will undercount at the edges where it’s been absorbed by ‘stuff’ along the way. That’s one nasty pile of clouds I’ve got already. And about that “rain so far”?

San Jose / San Francisco Cumulative Rain 29 Dec 2010

San Jose / San Francisco Cumulative Rain 29 Dec 2010

In this graph, the Blue runs, Lt to Drk, Trace, 0.2 in, 0.4 in. Green: 0.7, 1, 1.3 inch. Yellow 1.6 in and yellow/orange 2 inches. So some areas have already got 2 inches of rain and the storm “is coming”…

In this weather chart, you can see the fronts headed my way. It really isn’t here yet… Drat.

USA West weather map 29 Dec 2010 (click to enlarge)

USA West weather map 29 Dec 2010 (click to enlarge)

So it looks like it’s pretty sloppy now, and it’s only going to get worse for the next couple of days. If this is what it’s like when it’s still “coming” I think I need to check out property in Arizona…

If you would like to see “live charts” they are in this last posting I did about the weather out here. Don’t see the need to put them in this one right now when they are only one click away:

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/12/21/california-weather-now/

Real time stream flow only 2 clicks away:

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/12/21/streamflow-in-the-west/

It looks like that California and the West get wet when it cools is true in spades. There is one heck of a lot of coldening going on. The Sea Surface Temps are showing a Very Cold anomaly just off the Pacific North West (where my weather comes from most of the time) so this is going to be a cold one…

Sea Surface Temperature anomaly 29 Dec 2010

Sea Surface Temperature anomaly 29 Dec 2010

It’s also interesting to see how cold the water has become around Scandinavia and Kamchatka…

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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16 Responses to Storm Coming You Say?

  1. George says:

    Drove from San Jose to Palm Springs this evening. Had rain all the way to Tejon Pass. Cloudy here in Palm Springs but no rain yet.

    Oh, and man, I LOVE what they have done with the road from Gilroy to Los BaƱos on SR 152 through Pacheco Pass. I haven’t been on it since they have done all the work. It used to be a “white knuckle” drive, particularly at dusk in the rain. It is a breeze now.

  2. George says:

    Also, heard on the radio a spokesman from the California Department of Some Bureaucracy or Another say that they currently have 64% of the April 1 snowpack in the Sierras (as of a couple of days ago).

    So we only need half-again what we have already had for a “full” supply of snow.

  3. Dry your eyes princess ;)

    think about …
    http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/europe/12/28/russia.weather/

    it wasn’t long ago that a hot summer had everyone there converted to the AGW faith. I wonder if the faith is diminishing?

  4. oldtimer says:

    “drat” is a word I have not heard for a very long time – and that was by my late father.

    As for your weather, all I can think of saying is “cor blimey”.

  5. Baa Humbug says:

    I don’t have any sympathy left to offer you E M.
    I’ve spent the best part of most nights these past 2 weeks mopping out water from my granny flat.

    My hobby farm looks more like a lakeside property and my poor poor horses haven’t had any dry ground to stand on for weeks, their hooves will be breeding lots of bacteria, not good.

    Looking at the SST Anamoly chart, where did all the warm pools go? Another few weeks of this weather at least.

    Is that tiny little signs of the end of La Nina I see off the west coast of S America? Me thinks the next El Nino might be very weak.

  6. TomFP says:

    OT, but can anyone enlighten me, a non-scientist, as to the possible implications of the recent demarche by the NIWA in NZ?

    http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/SC1012/S00054/climate-science-coalition-vindicated.htm

    I’m interested in the weight attached to the earlier, now repudiated, series in global temperature modelling, and what effect/s the removal of CRU-alumnus Jim Salinger’s adjustments may have?

  7. “You have seen nothing yet”, Pier Corbyn at “Fox and Friends”
    From
    ” It never rains in southern California” to
    Raindrops keep fallin’ on my head
    And just like the guy whose feet are too big for his bed
    Nothin’ seems to fit
    Those raindrops are fallin’ on my head, they keep fallin’
    :-)

  8. E.M.Smith says:

    @George:

    Yeah, after a mere 30 years of waiting ;-)

    But it’s a very nice drive now.

    @Adolfo:

    I know.. I know… But knowing doesn’t make it any more pleasant… Though we have got a touch of sun today. I make it about 1/2 hour so far, at noon… wind much more gusty than in prior years (something I’ve noted for a couple of years now… the change in solar state lead to a gusty wind profile IMHO)

    Reminds me of about ’70-’74 when we had snow in the Central Valley…

    But somewhat gustier and ‘angry’er… more volatile.

    @George:

    Yeah, 30 years of a hot cycle to work off takes moving a LOT of water to the mountains as snow…

    @Oldtimer:

    I guess my ancestral roots are showing ;-)

    Every so often I’ll use a perfectly good and entirely common and familiar word, only to discover that it’s anything but that in the outside world… Like my moggy… It’s the only word that fits. He lives out doors an choses to come in here when it suits him. Not an “alley cat” as they have not home, but not a “house cat” as he lives where he pleases… he just pleases here more often than not. He’s a moggy…. yet almost noone outside the UK seems to know that word.

    @Sandy McClintock

    I’d rather not… it’s much more satisfying to wallow in a pit of self pity than it is to realize that anywhere with snow has it much much worse… Here in coastal California “We don’t do below and we don’t do snow.” So my little princess eyes are just not ready for such a harsh cruel reality as rain ;-)

    I need someone to run to Starbucks for me and get a Double Whip Latte…

    @Baa Humbug:

    Any chance of a ‘bleach tub’ walk in walk out for the horses? And maybe a couple of bales of hay on the high spot for standing? (Assuming you have a high spot, or a barn, or something…)

    If it stays bad, you might need to consider boarding them with a friend with a dry barn. At least until the hooves dry out and harden. You’ll likely need new shoes fit… “Git thee to a Smithy!” ;-)

    Yeah, I’ve been watching that ocean. Near as I can tell, it’s telling you two things.

    1) Where increased clouds have kept if from warming.

    2) Where increased evaporation has cooled it dramatically to make those clouds.

    Given that, I think that warm spot is just somewhere the winds have dropped and the clouds thinned / left.

    If anyone knows of a GEOS view of S. Pacific, it would be interesting to see the IR / cloud structure.

    El Nino? I think we’ll be lucky to get the La Nina Bitch drunk at the bar and passed out for a night…

    @TomFP:

    That’s a very large question….

    The “short form” is the technical answer. It says that about a 1200 km “reach” from ANY N.Z. territory has bogus “warming” in the programs like GIStemp and CRUTem.

    Just do an allowance for that area vs total surface area. That’s the ‘aw shoot’ area.

    The “long form” is that these guys were up to their eyeballs in shared methods and belief structure and data with The CRU Crew and Hansen’s Boys. (Along with NOAAs Little Peterson Pack)… so one can reasonably project that we’ve caught one of the cockaroaches in the kitchen…

    So the question becomes: How much is this a N.Z. specific issue and how much is it a specific example of a generic issue? And we just don’t know. I’d put my money on the “one cockaroach” specific example of a general case. YMMV as will each person’s opinion. And as of right now all we have is opinion. It will take a lot of detailed study to tease out what they did wrong and is it ‘generic’ or not.

    In the context of the UK Met Office batting MINUS 200 (exactly wrong a lot) and the Aussie Met looking a bit daft too, the “generic error” does have some backing.

    One thing for sure, will be a fine show to watch. “Go little Kiwi, Go! Chase those bugs! YUM!”

  9. Baa Humbug says:

    ooohh! thnx Em good advice, I’ll do the bleach tub walk thru (why didn’t I think of that? grr) I’ve been treating each hoof by hand. My back is killing me, 11 nags in all.

    Nah, no smithy, I do barefoot trimming myself.

    Amazing how good advice can come from unlikely sources (well, unlikely coz I don’t know you, for all I know you’ve dealt with neddies all your life lol)

  10. Tim Clark says:

    The real question is whether the “updated” numbers from NZ will be retroactively incorporated into the global buttGASTEMP and crutemp. I would wager $1,000,000. pesos the data already incorporated will never be changed.

  11. Tim Clark says:

    Baa Humbug, I’d use iodine before chlorox. Put it in a hand sprayer and torch the feet. Effect lasts longer. I did it with my cattle all the time. Dilute to about 1%. Add a pinch of antifungal.

  12. E.M.Smith says:

    @Baa Humbug:

    Grandad had a smithy on the farm and did his own work plus that for local farmers. (His Dad was a village Smith). Farm Smithing includes horse shoes. A lot of horse shoes.

    Dad grew up on that farm. First “car” was a horse… He did his own shoeing and talked me through it, though I’ve never done it.

    I gew up in farm country, but not ON a farm. Visited a lot of farms and helped at a lot of things. Love animals. Have ridden horses, but not a lot. Dad taught me how to work iron and make things as needed, including how to ‘size a shoe’. I went to UC Davis and hung out at the animal barns and Vet Med School some as it reminded me more of home. (They have a giant horse sized tilting table for loading horses for surgery in the Large Animal Clinic. Way cool!)

    My son grew up in the city, lives in L.A. and drives a BMW…

    End of the line, I fear.

    @Tim Clark:

    Good idea. If you have the iodine to hand. The bleach is a ‘field expedient’ that’s likely to have the needed materials everywhere and is a quick and common way to treat various ‘outbreaks’ of stuff. It’s a ‘stop gap’ of sorts until you can to it ‘the right way and fully’.

    works for people and athletes foot at the pool too ;-)

    Per data change: I suspect that there will be a big change as we plunge into a New Little Ice Age and folks continue to try to beat the “Global Warming” horse…

  13. Baa Humbug says:

    Thankyou E M and Tim

    Yes I’ve been using iodine. Cleaning out the frog, filing off chips and getting the gunk out of the cracks before spraying iodine.

    I’ll try the walk thru chlorex bath as an easy supplement to the hand treatment.
    The walk thru will also be good training for my 14yr old daughter as some of the nags will not want to step in it. Up to her to gain their confidence and trust.

    Again thnx to both of you

  14. TomFP says:

    thanks for the reply – and yes, I was aware the question was “pregnant”! Your answer deepens the suspicions that underlay my question. I asked a similar question over at Curry’s, and to the extent that I got a response (Mosher was the most expansive) it implied that the influence of the NZ series was pretty much coterminous with its landmass, and I thought that sounded a bit suss. Your “reach” is rather what I had in mind. Which gives NZ an influence far beyond its landmass, in a region not exactly stuffed with land stations.

    As to the possibility of CRU-style “scichosis” having afflicted other nations’ temperature series – and given that we all but know that the Aust BoM have been “at it” as well – the southern hemisphere stands to lose a big chunk of “warming”, which presumably will place an ever-rising warming burden on the surviving temperature series, which will require Hansenesque adjustment to cope.

    I’m no expert on the CRU’s global operation. I would imagine they have agents, and possibly fully-fledged franchises like the Salinger/NIWA one, in RSA? South America?

    A death of a thousand cuts?

    The NIWA correction implies 60 years of essentially unchanged temps. I find it hard to believe that that doesn’t imply much the same for the rest of the SH. Yet unless and until they are similarly challenged, the NH temps will continue to show the standard warming. I know the NH and SH are substantially discrete systems, but surely one hemisphere can’t just carry on warming while the other remains static? Or am I missing something?

  15. E.M.Smith says:

    @TomFP:

    I’ve seen some evidence for a hemispheric oscillator in the temperature series. (Most visible in the Antarctic data, though that is so sparse and discontinuous that it’s still only a hint…) with one Hemisphere warming as the other cools. First observed via looking for “where was 1934 hottest?”.

    So it’s quite possible for one to warm while the other cools. I’d even go further than that: It’s an essential fact that the different regions of the globe move to different drummers. Read my description of the French Sun Paper in comments here:

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/12/26/french-research-its-the-sun/#comment-10601

    OK, with that said, it will be hard for the Warmistas to continue flogging GLOBAL warming with one hot and one cold, so it’s a problem for THEM…

    FWIW, in looking at the temperature series of every country on the planet with an unbiased method, it looked to me very much as though there was a language based pattern. Places that spoke English tended to have the most ‘warmth’ to the data… So you would have Netherlands not warming, but England does? Bahamas warming but Netherlands Antillies not? (I’ve forgotten the exact islands, but the Carribe is fascinating in that respect) and those that didn’t warm apace tend to be the ones that get dropped in the 1990 Great Dying of Thermometers, with their missing data ‘filled in’ from ‘nearby’.

    I can only speculate that conspiring is easier with a shared language and cultural base…

    You can look at individual country trends ( I did EVERY country) and see where you think their might be ‘issues’ here:

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/04/11/the-world-in-dtdt-graphs-of-temperature-anomalies/

    As I look at S.Africa, it’s got 1/4 C of ‘rise’ but most of that coming as a rise from 1957 to 1987. With The Great Dying there is a wiggle and we go flat again:

    You can see the “pinch” in the hair as it goes through zero indicating a process change just as the thermometer count plunges. To me it looks like they were on track, then had trouble keeping it going after the government changed hands. Or it could be just natural ;-)

    Now, compare that with Namibia next door. Dead Flat:

    Now this matters to your N.Z. question. Why? Becuase N.Z. has thermometers on islands much more tripical than North Island…. So IFF there is a ‘nearby’ island with a thermometer that’s just not warming enough, like, oh, Samoa. Just ‘drop it’. Now GIStemp fills in the ‘missing data’ from up to 1000 km away. In later steps that “filled in’ thermometer will be used to UHI “correct” others up to 1000 km away… In the final “Grid / Box anomaly” step, THAT result may be used to fabricate an “anomaly” up to 1200 km away… So a much more detailed answer than 1200 km would be “Depending on what stations were dropped and where, you could have a chain of substitutions and adjustments that reach 3200 km away, but it’s unlikely, maybe.”

    Take for example Niue:

    It has a dropping trend line. Many of the islands have a rising line, IMHO from building a nice new jet airport and putting the thermometer, the only thermometer, near 10 acres of tarmac instead of at the old grass field… but Niue is dropping into the 1980s. Then it just ends. It will be ‘made up’ from a nice ‘nearby’ island with a warming trend. If N.Z. administers that nearby island thermometer, well, there is your spreading impact.

    Another example of this is that the thermometer on the southern most island, Camplbell Island, was dropped from the series, so IT gets ‘filled in” from up near South Island via The Reference Station Method. THAT is then used for filling in “grid / box anomalies” up to 1200 km from IT.

    An example of how to do this kind of forensic search is here:

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/11/01/new-zealand-polynesian-polarphobia/

    Notice that I use averages of temperatures. The Warmistas like to toss rocks at that as it’s not “correct areal adjusted climatology”. What they miss is that it IS correct forensics. In forensics, you WANT to emphasis the oddities, not average them away…

    So you drop the southern cold station and fill it in from hotter up north, then use THAT to fill in toward Antarctica, but have a very nice ‘way north’ tropical island that can also be used to fill in other tropical islands that have not ‘played along’ with the tarmac thing.

    Such is the reach of New Zealand.

    And no, you havn’t missed anything. You were missing some things up untill a couple of years ago, but that has changed 8-)

  16. TomFP says:

    Chiefio, once again thanks.

    I am in the midst of reading the stuff you’ve linked. but meanwhile, re LANGUAGE – yes! As I was considering the extent of the CRU “brand” in the previous post, the word “anglosphere” was buzzing round my head. I wonder what a structured analysis of national tseries by “anglosphere” and “non-anglosphere” would reveal?

    And the next step, presumably, for those of us plotting the exoneration of C. Dioxide, Esq., is the incorporation of the new NZ figures in any datasets which have hitherto relied in the Salinger one. Presumably this will not be done voluntarily. Do you know what exists to compel the substitution? And does the “reach” have to be manually corrected, or are the dependencies written in as algorithms? Sorry if these are naive questions…

    back to your stuff.

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