From a comment on WUWT w h/t to “Pat” in http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/17/after-the-noachian-floods-in-1861-california-experienced-a-punishing-drought/#comment-576849:
we have a link to this article from
The point? La Nina impacts on Australia cluster in roughly 30 year groupings (that ‘ol 60 year PDO ‘cycle’ – though it isn’t a pure cycle).
La Nina ‘here for decades’
Siobhain Ryan From:The Australian January 14, 2011 12:00AM
THE big wet may not be over for Queenslanders for another few decades, with the La Nina climate pattern tipped to be a repeat visitor.
Stewart Franks, associate professor in environmental engineering at NSW’s University of Newcastle, said his research suggested “enhanced” La Ninas would dominate eastern Australian summer weather patterns for years to come.
“What we noticed is El Nino and La Nina events are actually not random, they tend to cluster, and they cluster on time frames between 10 to 40 years,” he said.
Professor Franks, an Australian national representative to the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, said the last run of strong La Ninas occurred between the mid-1940s and mid-1970s, culminating in the 1974 floods.
They were followed by about three decades dominated by El Nino dry climate patterns.
So looks like “She’s BAAAaaack!” and it’s going to be rain and flooding for a couple of decades, on and off.
Fits with my understanding of the cyclical nature of weather.
Further down in the same article:
“We are seeing a return to the devastating impact of the enhanced La Ninas we saw in 1945 to 1975, so that indicates to my mind that it’s entirely possible that were facing 20 to 30 years of repeated, frequent or enhanced La Ninas,” he said.
Professor Franks, who has publicly challenged some of the world’s top scientists on climate change, said successive La Ninas would result in far wetter summers and larger flood risks, particularly for the area from Rockhampton in Queensland to the NSW central coast.
Hope folks who rebuild there do it on stilts and poles…
And from the OMG, why can’t this just end department (but they do note it’s not likely):
Peter Baddiley, the bureau’s Queensland flood warning service manager, said the risk of flooding would continue through to March. “You just cannot rule out the possibility of floods again in Queensland, possibly in different areas, possibly in the same areas,” he said.
But Mr Baddiley said he doubted the state would see such severe wet weather again this summer.
“You need a special set of circumstances to create that level of record rainfall and flooding over such a wide areas and it would be really low in the odds to receive something of that scale again,” he said.
So we can expect some continued disruptions to Australian coal in future years. US Coal stocks would be likely to benefit.