That’s the projection as I type this. An updated map can be found at the Australian BOM:
OK, if I’ve done it right and found the right image, this ought to be the “latest” rainfall totals for Australia from this site (where you can make your own maps of various sorts):
Per Reuters, this Cat 5 storm has the potential to take down even ‘cyclone proof’ homes. From:
(Reuters) – Australia’s Cyclone Yasi, with winds of up to 300 km (186 miles) per hour, is so powerful it could blow apart even “cyclone proof” houses, engineers said on Wednesday.
Yasi is headed for major towns and cities along the northeast coast. It is believed to be the strongest ever to hit Australia, surpassing Cyclone Tracy which largely destroyed the northern city of Darwin in 1974.
I note in passing that the 1974 cyclone was during the last time we were in the ‘cold phase’ of the PDO.
We are continuing in the pattern of having weather just like the last time things were cold and getting colder. Folks who assert this is due to “Global Warming” will need to explain why it happened in 1974 too…
Cyclone Tracy was a tropical cyclone that devastated the city of Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia, from Christmas Eve to Christmas Day, 1974. It is the most compact hurricane or equivalent-strength tropical cyclone on record in the Australian basin, with gale-force winds extending only 48 kilometres (30 mi) from the centre and was the most compact system worldwide until 2008 when Tropical Storm Marco of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season broke the record, with gale-force winds extending only 19 kilometres (12 mi) from the centre. After forming over the Arafura Sea, the storm moved southwards and affected the city with Category 4 winds on the Australian cyclone intensity scale, while there is evidence to suggest that it had reached Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale when it made landfall.
Tracy killed 71 people, caused $837 million in damage (1974 AUD) and destroyed more than 70 percent of Darwin’s buildings, including 80 percent of houses. Tracy left more than 41,000 out of the 47,000 inhabitants of the city homeless prior to landfall and required the evacuation of over 30,000 people. Most of Darwin’s population was evacuated to Adelaide, Whyalla, Alice Springs and Sydney, and many never returned to the city. After the storm passed, the city was rebuilt using more modern materials and updated building techniques. Bruce Stannard of The Age stated that Cyclone Tracy was a “disaster of the first magnitude … without parallel in Australia’s history.”
And further down, some other cyclone history:
Darwin had been severely battered by cyclones before; in January 1897 and again in March 1937. However, in the 20 years leading up to Cyclone Tracy, the city had undergone a period of rapid expansion. E.P. Milliken estimated that on the eve of the cyclone there were 43,500 people living in 12,000 dwellings in the Darwin area. Though building standards required that some attention be given to the possibility of cyclones, most buildings were not capable of withstanding the force of a cyclone’s direct hit.
Note that date. 1897. Add 120 years, you get 2017 which will be right in the middle of our present cyclical cold phase of the PDO. This is quite normal, to get this kind of storm during this phase of the ocean cycles. Anyone who wants to paint this storm as indicative of Global Warming will need to explain Tracy and the 1897 storms.
For this list of historical storms in Australia:
So best of wishes to the folks in Australia. It’s likely to be rough, but you folks have the right stuff to come through it, and you’ve been there before. May the storm weaken unexpectedly and die as it hits land…