Austrailia Braces

Yasi project as of 1 Feb 2011

Yasi project as of 1 Feb 2011

That’s the projection as I type this. An updated map can be found at the Australian BOM:

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

Australian Rainfall Cal. Year Totals

Australian Rainfall Cal. Year Totals

OK, if I’ve done it right and found the right image, this ought to be the “latest” rainfall totals for Australia from this site (where you can make your own maps of various sorts):

Australian BOM

Per Reuters, this Cat 5 storm has the potential to take down even ‘cyclone proof’ homes. From:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/02/idINIndia-54580020110202

(Reuters) – Australia’s Cyclone Yasi, with winds of up to 300 km (186 miles) per hour, is so powerful it could blow apart even “cyclone proof” houses, engineers said on Wednesday.

Yasi is headed for major towns and cities along the northeast coast. It is believed to be the strongest ever to hit Australia, surpassing Cyclone Tracy which largely destroyed the northern city of Darwin in 1974.

I note in passing that the 1974 cyclone was during the last time we were in the ‘cold phase’ of the PDO.

We are continuing in the pattern of having weather just like the last time things were cold and getting colder. Folks who assert this is due to “Global Warming” will need to explain why it happened in 1974 too…

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Tracy

Cyclone Tracy was a tropical cyclone that devastated the city of Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia, from Christmas Eve to Christmas Day, 1974. It is the most compact hurricane or equivalent-strength tropical cyclone on record in the Australian basin, with gale-force winds extending only 48 kilometres (30 mi) from the centre and was the most compact system worldwide until 2008 when Tropical Storm Marco of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season broke the record, with gale-force winds extending only 19 kilometres (12 mi) from the centre. After forming over the Arafura Sea, the storm moved southwards and affected the city with Category 4 winds on the Australian cyclone intensity scale, while there is evidence to suggest that it had reached Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale when it made landfall.

Tracy killed 71 people, caused $837 million in damage (1974 AUD) and destroyed more than 70 percent of Darwin’s buildings, including 80 percent of houses. Tracy left more than 41,000 out of the 47,000 inhabitants of the city homeless prior to landfall and required the evacuation of over 30,000 people. Most of Darwin’s population was evacuated to Adelaide, Whyalla, Alice Springs and Sydney, and many never returned to the city. After the storm passed, the city was rebuilt using more modern materials and updated building techniques. Bruce Stannard of The Age stated that Cyclone Tracy was a “disaster of the first magnitude … without parallel in Australia’s history.”

And further down, some other cyclone history:

Darwin had been severely battered by cyclones before; in January 1897 and again in March 1937. However, in the 20 years leading up to Cyclone Tracy, the city had undergone a period of rapid expansion. E.P. Milliken estimated that on the eve of the cyclone there were 43,500 people living in 12,000 dwellings in the Darwin area. Though building standards required that some attention be given to the possibility of cyclones, most buildings were not capable of withstanding the force of a cyclone’s direct hit.

Note that date. 1897. Add 120 years, you get 2017 which will be right in the middle of our present cyclical cold phase of the PDO. This is quite normal, to get this kind of storm during this phase of the ocean cycles. Anyone who wants to paint this storm as indicative of Global Warming will need to explain Tracy and the 1897 storms.

h/t to Zorro at: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/02/01/the-approach-of-cyclone-yasi-as-told-by-the-data/#comment-588931

For this list of historical storms in Australia:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/02/us-australia-cyclone-history-idUSTRE71113C20110202

So best of wishes to the folks in Australia. It’s likely to be rough, but you folks have the right stuff to come through it, and you’ve been there before. May the storm weaken unexpectedly and die as it hits land…

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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8 Responses to Austrailia Braces

  1. E.M.Smith says:

    Another WUWT article is at this link. It has a slightly earlier version of the same BOM map as I’ve got up top:

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/02/01/australia-braces-for-cyclone-yasi-as-it-hits-categotry-5/

  2. Baa Humbug says:

    I dunno EM, all the predictions, all the press confrences say a catastrophe is looming.

    But I just have a weird feeling about this cyclone. None of the live BoM radars are showing anything extreme. Not wind speed, not rainfall.

    I think Yasi may have spread herself out too far and is not as strong as they make her out to be. I hope I’m right.

  3. E.M.Smith says:

    @Baa Humbug:

    I hope you are right as well. It reminds me of one we had about 2? years ago. A very “scary scary” cat 5 with a tight core. But it was ONLY a cat 5 because it had wound up tight, and the next day it ‘unwound’ and spread out and was almost instantly a plain old cat 3, then fizzled as it hit land.

    Arms in, arms out…

    So I’m hoping this guy is “All hat and no cattle” too…

    But we’ll just have to wait and see…

  4. cementafriend says:

    Chiefio with all due respect I would not trust any BOM map, assessment or prediction. There are too many AGW believers at the top and they still rely on models which are in tune with IPCC falsifications.
    However, there is lots of raw data on the BOM website for people to make their own assessment. Anthony Watts graphing here http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/02/01/the-approach-of-cyclone-yasi-as-told-by-the-data/ is impressive .

    Have look at Warwick Hughes comment 13 (WSH) here http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=807#comments
    The impressive map of February 1893 rainfall could have been done by BOM if they bothered to look. They should be looking at the available historical data and look for patterns rather than crap models which include global warming from CO2.

  5. peter geany says:

    A Couple of things I remember about Tracy. I was in my last year at school in New Zealand and can recall Qantas setting a record for the time evacuating people in a 747. Second some of the only homes left standing in Darwin after the cyclone were Lockwood Homes, designed and built in my home town of Rotorua. They are wooden homes assembled jigsaw fashion from prefabricated wooden beams.

    We always thought they looked good, and they were always pricey, and as it turned out incredibly strong. This current storm would have to be a monster to be more destructive than Tracy

  6. Keith Hill says:

    As I sit here in Tasmania at 1-00am watching Cyclone Yasi crossing the Queensland Coast at Mission Beach, one of the many popular and beautiful places in that area, it appears that it will be as devastating as forecast.
    Winds up to 290kms per hour in the eye walls are expected with calm of about an hour as the eye passes over. After it crosses, it is expected to fall to a Cat 3 which could still cause considerable damage to inland towns
    Cairns is expected to miss the worst of Yasi but much damage is still expected. Torrential rain expected is posing a big threat as it falls on a coutryside already drenched.
    A storm surge in low-lying towns south of Cairns is expected to coincide with a high tide and rises up to 7 metres above normal high tide level have been predicted.
    Earlier, all weather reporting equipment on Willis Island off the Qld coast was knocked out but fortunately the four staff had been evacuated.
    BoM has reported wave height recording buoys had been turned upside down and were giving false readings so no credence should be given to those measurements.
    It is to be hoped that with its’ fierce display of the many major forces that can affect our climate, Nature has delivered a real blow to the AGW alarmists who would have us believe that a few extra molecules of CO2 in the atmosphere can have a “catastrophic” effect .
    Finally, I’m sure the thoughts of many all over the world are with those who are in the path of Yasi.
    For my own part, I give thanks that I am privileged to live in Tasmania, the greatest place in the world in my unbiased opinion!
    For the record, I believe the last Cat 5 cyclone to hit Queensland was in 1918.

  7. PhilJourdan says:

    Baa and EM. I remember Floyd. He was only a Cat 3 (this was 99), but he stretched from Miami to boston on the east coast! He looked impressive (so much so that I had him as my all paper until my computer crashed in 03). But while he did flood a few cities, his winds did not do much damage.

    I remember the cat 5 a couple of years ago as well. Tight and powerful!

    But for the example of those 2, there was still Camille. She took up the entire Gulf and was a Cat 5. She was no lady. I hope Yasi turns out to be a pussy cat. But (s)he is impresssive to look at!

  8. Keith Hill says:

    Update 8-30am. Thankfully no deaths reported as yet and Yasi has now been downgraded to Cat 2. Power is out in many areas and much infrastructure damage in smaller towns is expected when it is safe to inspect. Too early yet to assess damage to water treatment plants etc., and there is significant disruption to the mobile phone network.
    Because Yasi crossed the coast two hours later than expected, flood damage from the storm surge looks like being less than feared.
    Rest assured that whatever the damage and losses, my fellow Aussies will cope as they have done through numerous disasters over the last 220 odd years.

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