I was reading this article about Snowzilla at WUWT:
and it had this graph in it of North American Snow Extent:
OK, I’m staring at it and notice first off that the trend line is rising. These kinds of graphs can be subject to ‘end effects’ where if you take a period shorter than one cycle you get various ’tilts’ from sampling a cycle at less than a full period. Even over a period, you can get biases (for example, if you sample with 1.5 periods and are careful to pick it so you get 1/4 low 1/2 hi 1/2 low 1/4 high you will get a nice uptrend line). So you look at partial cycles and check for that. We were cold through the 60’s and most of the ’70s. We were hot for the ’80s & ’90s, and in 2000 the PDO flipped back to cold.
Look at that graph again, and look for the “Start to about 1980” drop in temps and rise in snow (up to the first two lines that spike up – click on the graph for a larger clearer version). Then look for the “late ’70s to 2000 rise in temps / drop in snow” as rough half cycles.
Now look at that rise from 2000 to date. It’s quite a spike of cold and snow. The last 4 years are all over the trend line and all over 17.
The only other period on the graph that comes close is 1982-86 where 4 go ‘over the line’ but with a dud in the middle. I’d like to get the data for this chart and make a 3 segments graph with 3 fit lines. (If anyone else knows where to get it, that would be an interesting “Dig Here!”) For now, a visual estimate makes it look to me like we are having snow extent increase at a rate not seen in all of the last cycle and that it is clearly an opposite behaviour from the “hot” 1970-2000 interval. If that ‘drop’ from about 1987 to 2000 was due to warming, then the rise from 2000 to date is an indicator of cooling.
So for all those AGW Warmers saying “hot is making it snow more”, one question:
WHY did it snow less in the 1970-2000 interval and only reverse trend to more as the PDO turned cold?
At best you can make the case that the snow is ‘trendless’ over very long terms as it has high year to year variablity (but that, too, means AGW is a mindless ‘explanation’ of snow); at worst, we are headed to one heck of a lot more snow in the next decade as the sun continues it’s low energy state.