No, not the weather. Me.
Clearly I’ve “picked up a bug” on my recent tour of Truck Stops, Dingy Diners, and Road Side Rest Areas …
OK, I’ve had a ‘fuzzy’ feeling for a couple of days along with some mild aches and pains and that odd ‘sparkly’ feeling along the nerves from time to time. All of it tends to point toward a virus of some sort. (And here I thought that by now I’d had them all ;-) Seriously, though, having taught classes for years and participating in the daily germ exchange of raising children along with a spouse who is still teaching ‘the wee ones’ and has brought home just about every bug known and not… I started working at about 7 1/2 years old washing dishes in my folks restaurant (by hand… no machines 1/2 century ago…) and being exposed to a couple of hundred folks germs a day. Every day. Then went off and worked in hotels at the admissions desk for a few years then in a hospital on the wards for a couple of years and as an admissions clerk for a couple. If it’s “been around” I’ve had it sneezed on me.
But I digress…
Somebody has mutated, and decided to “move in”. So far it’s pretty wimpy. Major symptom is just a very significant fatigue. I’ve got a 1/2 dozen ideas for postings, and barely enough energy to type in this “never mind”…
So for now, please accept my apologies.
The present ‘ideas’ even if ‘unadorned’ by any significant facts, fact checking, data, etc.:
Egypt is a mess. If Mubarak wanted to TRY to do the worst possible thing, he could not have done more harm. In a patronizing “My Children Daddy doesn’t WANT to spank you…” speech he said he’s putting in charge his hand picked “yes man” VP. But not stepping down. He’ll just be hanging around the palace until September just to make sure things turn out right.
Expect a mess after Friday Prayers let out ( in about 12 hours by my reckoning…)
Expect oil and gold to rise (but I think silver would be a better way to ride this puppy). As Obama and friends are busy screwing up the US Oil industry and moved the 2012 leases out to 2017 before anyone can bid on them (yeah, not exactly headline… but important) and with Brazil having a socialism risk writ large these days, best plays are likely to be Canadian oil. IMO, SU.
EGPT is a very thinly traded ETF in Egypt. Something like about $25 Million total capitalization. It will be very bouncy (bounced up 5% on the rumor Mubarak was leaving…) I’d expect a plunge about next Monday, then one can likely get a Dead Cat Bounce trade out of it.
(I think BAL the Cotton ETF on the risk of an Egyptian cotton failure in the chaos, would be a good play but it is up today by 5% and on a spike away from the trend, so there is a very large risk of a collapse back to the SMA stack).
Also the oil tankers ( FRO and VLCCF ) stand to win if the pipeline and canal are shut down. VLCCF has an 8%+ dividend too… I’ve owned it on and off over the years.
At any rate, it’s a mess, and will stay a mess for while. This will further destabilize most world markets (on the risk of oil spikes and with a $15 / bbl premium on European oil vs USA at present) and I’d look for a generalized run out of emerging markets with a big oil bill and into countries with secure energy supplies (France, Russia, Indonesia) if things don’t resolve over the weekend.
You can start watching for a bottom formation in Brazil EWZ, and I’d expect India and China to have issues (as central banks raise rates… trying to cope with our flood of pretty paper from our dollar mills…)
Having wonderful weather on this coast, which means horrid weather for the East Of The Rockies. My Condolences… (Maybe we could send AlGore to Egypt to cool things off ;-)
Wheat is likely to get some help from promising Australian crops, but is headed up for now. Corn is likely to be problematic with the present cold / storms profile in America. Sugar is way too high. I’d start watching for a ‘correction’ soon. SGG is looking like a ‘failure to advance’ to me.
FWIW, there is a relatively new ETF in Corn with the ticker CORN.
JJG the grain ETF that’s a basket of wheat, corn, soybeans looks about the same.
My best advice is to stock up on noodles and boxed cerials… Also, the ticker COW is a meat futures ETN. As folks have been dumping animals like crazy due to the high cost of feed, prices of meat were held down. Now the herd is at very low levels. Expect prices to rise into the rest of the year. With corn near a double, meat has to follow.
And I’m not seeing a whole lot of hope for loads of fresh grain crops in the next 4 months…
The “bottom line” is that you want to be in the things that China, India, and Europe will want to buy during “bad times” and right now that’s feed & fuel with hard money parking places.
However, with things moving this fast, watch out for a load of jerks and jumps. Note that TBT has bounced up and down dramatically each of the last 3 days while net doing “not much”. Folks are frantic and confused.
OK, I’ll add more as I can. For now, at least you have some idea why I’m not being very chatty…