Of Time and Temperatures

World History in one Time Chart

World History in one Time Chart

I’ve deliberately left this image a bit “fuzzy” so as to eliminate any kind of copyright issue. If you want an image that is suitable for reading the text, you will need to buy the book. I got mine at Barnes and Noble on sale for $10, but it’s also at Amazon for a lot more ( about $40). This is a camera generated “panorama” that has some splice artifacts in it, and yes, I could re-do the image outdoors with a lot of light and better splice positioning et.al…. but see the above note about NOT wanting this to be readable… It’s to give an understanding of the tool, not to provide the tool, especially when I don’t have rights to it.

http://www.amazon.com/Timechart-History-World-6000-Years/dp/1861189052

OK, what is this? It is a time line of world history where the width of the lines are the importance of the empire, the colors are the particular empire / ethnicity and the positioning on the page shows gross west to east geography. So, at the very bottom, you can see the Americas enter onto the scene and the USA grow to power on the left side. The pink at the far left is Latin America, the grey next to it is the USA. All long the right edge is China (that tan stripe), until Japan shows up toward the bottom (the dark blueish stripe), and just to the left of China is India in hot pink.

Looking top to bottom, near the middle, that big brown blob is The Roman Empire. The peach one just above it is the Greeks. The dark green blob to the right of the Greeks is the Persian Empire.

So much for the basic orientation. Other empires or areas come and go over time, as the wheel of history turns.

So I was looking at this, and looking for Bond Events and 1/2 Bond Event times just to see “what happened in the world then?” and noticed an interesting pattern. It takes a bit to ‘tease it out’ of the image as the particular empire in a given geography may change while the location doesn’t, and that confounds a geography oriented goal. For example, that big “Roman Brown Splotch” covers Egypt (the sky blue blobs near the top) during that time (as Rome had absorbed Egypt by then) yet in prior periods it is Egypt that matters. OK, a bit of “mental image stitching” needed. And on the right side, you have variously Mongols and Persians and Assyrians and Amorites as the “Southwest to Central Asian” grouping. (Amorites are that early plum color, while the Iranian / Persians are the olive to the right of it and Huns / Mongolians the lighter green just to the right of the pink Indian stripe and before the tan Chinese stripe.)

Ok, just run you eye up and down the image. Look at how the “lumps” change size. Something of an alternation between left and right sides. This corresponds with the rise and fall of Egyptian Kingdoms as we saw earlier.

First off, notice that in ‘recent times’ they have gone very PC and show most of the world as relatively constant width lines. No need to piss anyone off by showing Japan expand it’s empire in W.W.II and then lose it all, only to recover economically later… nor to show the USSR blossom and crash… though the blue-grey Russia line does get a bit thicker and thinner… OK, so recent data is a bit stilted as folks are more sensitive. Got that.

From The Start Of The Chart

But in the beginning we can see Egypt have it’s “Kingdoms” and its rise and fall with “Intermediate Periods” of collapse. Notice that in those first two “skinny bits” of the Egyptian sky blue, the Amorites expand? (That plum bit to the right of it) In the second one, an olive green blotch forms and grows between Egypt and the Amorites too. That is the Assyrian empire that is in the same general area as the Amorites. You can think of Amorites as Iraq and Assyrians as Syria, sort of.

The first of these “Egyptian skinny bits” is that 1800 BC to 1570 BC “Second Intermediate Period” were I’d been wondering “what happened here?”. The answer is that the Hyksos Kings came in from further up north and ran the place for a while. Various folks have asserted these guys where Hebrews, or various other Semitic tribes. The Time Chart note for Egypt in 1800-1750 BC says “XIIIth Dynasty, a period of internal strife and disorder, but new blood is introduced by invasion of Semitic Nomads (Bedouin) who rule Egypt under the name of the Hyksos Kings“. As the Bedouin of that time were not the same as today, that leaves a lot open to interpretation. There were some red head Bedouin (there are still some today, though fewer) and these could even have been some of the Edomites or their kin. Folks just don’t know.

What is clear, though, is that Egypt was “on the rocks” and folks “up north” and “over east” a ways could waltz in and take over. Similarly we find Babylon (Amorites) and Persia ( Iranians) expanding their lines. During a 1/2 Bond Event, Egypt suffers and more North-East of them prospers (and / or is motivated to attack warmer places ;-)

China and Droughts

I also note that in the China line for the 1800-1750 BC period it notes “The Great Drought” Now if that isn’t a “Dig Here!” I don’t know what is! 8-)

http://www.businessinsider.com/china-drought-threatens-to-set-off-inflationary-spiral-2010-3

In south-western China, drought is threatening to reduce crop yield and thus cause food price inflation.

Coupled with an especially cold winter in Northern China at the same time, this has caused the government to be concerned that its 2010 goal of producing 500 million metric tons of grain could be missed, according to Xinhua.

Even the “Warmers” have noticed, though they have the causality backwards:

http://climateprogress.org/2011/02/24/china-drought-worst-in-200-years-food-prices/

There were also “great droughts” in China in 580 BC and 641 BC, but I’m getting ahead of myself ;-)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine

Has an interesting note per China during times about the Little Ice Age era:

The four famines of 1810, 1811, 1846, and 1849 are said to have killed no fewer than 45 million people. The period from 1850 to 1873 saw, as a result of the Taiping Rebellion, drought, and famine, the population of China drop by over 60 million people

So, to me, it looks like cold excursions are not good for China and drought problems. The converse would be that the present drought (especially in the context of recent cold winters) confirms that we are actually entering a cold period.

Back To The 2000 BC Egyptians

Unfortunately, the chart begins in 2000 BC with an established Egyptian empire, so we don’t get to see Bond Event 3 in 2200 BC. In about 1850 BC, after 400 years of good times, something starts to go wrong and the Egyptian line skinnys in to about 1700 BC. But moving forward to 1650 BC, the note for Egypt says “Introduction of horses”. We know that the saddle was invented in the Tocharian area of China (what today is China, then it was populated by a more Scandinavian / celtic looking folk as shown in the red head mummies dug up there.) So it would be reasonable to presume that some kind of “middle asia toward Egypt” spread was happening during this time of troubles.

By 1550 BC, Egypt was back on its feet. The note says “Hyksos expelled by Ahmos I with the aid of army raised in Ethiopia”. We see the Amorite / Iranian / Persian / Mongolian cluster shrinking again. Clearly “good times” in Ethiopia and Egypt, not so good in Asia Minor.

But skip forward to 1200 BC (the plunge into Bond Event 2 with the Iron Age Cold Period about 900 BC) and we again have Egypt on the wane and the Assyrian green-tan blob coming to dominate. (The Babylonian Plum makes a nice peak then too, in 950 BC)

Of Greeks and Romans and Egypt

OK, all things warm again and by 700 BC when the Assyrian blob (the Olive bit) is at it’s widest, we have that Greek peach band on the far left starting to expand. About the same time Rome was founded (that brownish wedge starting as the Greeks move away from the left edge). About this time, we would expect to see that Egyptian line expanding in the warmer times, but instead Persia blooms? (The dark green blob) WUWT? In 450 BC the note for Egypt says “Egypt a Persian Province”… Oh… A nice example of how you need to disentangle the political from the physical on the chart. So Persia is growing instead of Egypt as it IS Egypt in terms of productivity…

Next, that Persian blob shrinks as the Greek blob expands greatly and we get a very large chunk of Peach while the Persian green fades. Our next 1/2 Bond Event isn’t until 200 BC or so, so why is “Egypt” shrinking now? Because it isn’t.

Persia is conquered by Alexander The Great and we have the note in 350 – 300 BC “Alexander The Great establishes the Macedonian Empire including Persian Empire. Egypt conquered. Civilization of great Hellenistic Age centered at Alexandria“. So for all this wobbling back and forth, this could be seen as just another “warm Egyptian” period.

So what happens about 200 BC? That’s about 1/2 Bond Event prior to The Dark Ages in 500 AD, and it’s about 1/2 Bond Event after the Iron Age Cold Period in 900 BC. A bit of cold maybe? “Egypt” shrinking?

Rome takes over. It conquers the places that ‘have a bit of a problem’ during cold spells. “Egypt” by any other name and also the Asia Minor areas that would normally have been expected to rebound. So all of it ends up “Roman” and we lose some fingerprints in the sand. (Though a search of Roman History might yield interesting information about what areas did well and what had “issues” during this time. Egypt does have its final collapse with Cleopatra and looking forward, Rome does move during the following warmth up toward German and British areas.)

I note that the China comment for 250 BC – 200 BC is “Period of great confusion, followed by four hundred years of divided empire”. Seems like China does not do so well in cold excursions either…

Time passes and the Roman Republic turns into the Roman Empire.

Byzantium

Then we come to that time about 400 AD-500 AD when we have Bond Event 1. That is the point where the Big Brown Roman blob shrinks to near nothing. The empire “recandles” to Byzantium (down near the warmer bits) as the Northern parts of the empire have trouble feeding themselves and have little tribute to send to Rome. At the same time, we get a large Green Blob of Mongolians swooping over Central and Western Asia.

OK another cold period, another ascendency of Central / Western Asia. And while we leave behind some of the confusions over “which Egypt” we start to pick up Europe and other geographies as things to dilute the signal in the chart. By 700 AD we have the rise of the Arab / Muslim empire displacing the Mongols in that Asian mix, and once again as warming slowly starts, Europe grows while Central / Western Asia suffers. By 1000 AD we’ve got Byzantium back on stride and joined by The Holy Roman Empire. The Teutons / Franks are that lime green and yellowish band that shows up on the left side about the time the Romans are getting most squashed and the Mongolian green bit has a dramatic peak. The Teutons / Franks later breaks up into the Green bit that is the Holy Roman Empire as France shows up as a Plum bit to the left of it.

Everything is great for Europe and Byzantium right up until about 1150 – 1200 AD ( seven hundred years after that 500 AD time of troubles…) when we once again have a Mongolian Green Blob (Genghis Khan this time) as the Turks start empire building too. (That Arab yellow collapses and just under it a lime green Turks band begins). Once again, we have that Central / Western Asia rise during 1/2 Bond Event times in Egypt / Europe. The names have changed, but not the geography.

Warmth Returns To Europe

The Age of European Empires

A couple of hundred years later, and the Asians are fading from the scene as Europe has a resurgence. This time it is the Spanish, French and on the far left, that dark green empire seen growing is England, Ireland, Scotland and Wales. This complicates things a bit as the British Empire expanded all around the globe, so even India was part of that political event. In any case, we’re near the end of our saga. During the Little Ice Age, the United States takes over (the dak grey band showing up near the end). Japan is the dark blue on the far right, while the Mongolian Green fades into the Chinese tan and India is a thin plum of the empire. The next inward dark blue band is Russia, coming to dominate south western Asia.

So here we are, at the end of a ‘warm phase’. Europe and the New World in dominance.

IF we turn to another Bond Event, should we not expect what we saw the last times? “Problems” from the arc that reaches from Mongolia down through Turkey / Syria / Iraq / Persia-Iran? Hard times in North Africa and cold in Europe? In many ways, the EU has rebuilt the Roman Empire. But Rome did not fare so well in the last turns to the cold side with the Eastern Provinces.

And is there really cause to think that this time is the time for a new Little Ice Age? Could not the Little Ice Age itself have been a Bond Event? I suppose it could have been (and the Ottoman Turk Empire would fit the pattern) but there is evidence for a new cold time coming:

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2011/03/03/what-is-to-come-sun-wise/

History does not repeat, but it does strongly rhyme. Looking at these patterns, the implication is that we are on the edge of a time of troubles for China (probably crop failure, drought, and food mediated) while there will be major issues in that Central Asian arc to South West Asia. Who will invade whom? No way to tell. The political axis is not the same as the geographic one. Can we ship enough food around to avoid this turn on the wheel? Can we dodge the need to invade to survive and use trade instead? Can our technology be the lever that frees us from the cold? One can only hope.

“But Hope is not a strategy. – E.M.Smith”

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
This entry was posted in AGW Climate Perspective, Emergency Preparation and Risks, Science Bits and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

18 Responses to Of Time and Temperatures

  1. Ken McMurtrie says:

    EM, you are a legend.
    Your posts never cease to amaze me with so many impressive aspects of so many different issues.
    Always of interest, relevance, importance and treated in depth with great insight and intelligence.
    My education is substantially and pleasurably boosted by your blog.
    Thank You!
    May you live, as the Chinese say, ‘long enough to dance at your grandchildren’s weddings’
    Ken.

  2. Jason Calley says:

    @ E.M. First of all, ditto what Ken says.

    “Can our technology be the lever that frees us from the cold? ”

    If we can get decentralized, cheap energy, yes. As you have pointed out, we have several very viable technologies with the potential for inexpensive energy. Certainly (and only considering current, known techniques) nuclear with sea water derived uranium, joined with either coal based or otherwise synthesised liquid fuels would be capable of seeing us through climatic hard times.

    We have to have cheap energy; the only alternative is subsistence living.

  3. E.M.Smith says:

    Well *blush*!!

    I just ask questions and can’t stop until I get an answer that “fits” what all is known. In the end, I’m just a very large pattern matcher that is compelled to figure out why the pieces of the jigsaw do or do not fit in a particular place. No force fitting of pieces allowed.

    FWIW, I’ve had a similar “map” of the world as a roll up chart for about 15 years. This was in book form and with a bit more detail so I just bought it. Have not put the two side by side yet, but by memory they match. I think the other one was by a major map maker. Rand McNally?

    Yeah, here it is:

    http://www.amazon.com/McNally-Histomap-World-History-Cosmopolitan/dp/0528834266

    $16.50 in “map” format.

    At any rate, staring at that kind of thing until the whole of it is “loaded” is what I do “for fun” when stuck indoors… I know, “sick puppy”… I also like to read dictionaries and encyclopedias from cover to cover… It’s that Aspe thing… At least I never read more than a few pages of the phone book before deciding it wasn’t as interesting as the dictionary and encyclopedia set. Lucky decision, that ;-)

    So, once it’s “loaded” then I run “pattern detect” on it and see what pops up. I’d noticed the Mongolian oscillator some decade or so back, but only now went back for a closer look and adjusting for the “different Egypts” and with the Bond and 1/2 Bond overlay on dates.

    “It’s just ‘what I do’… -E.M.Smith”

    Same kind of thing was what started the Red Flag “pieces don’t fit!!!” screamer when I started looking at “how does Global Warming work?”

    Everything has to fit. It just does… or something is broken…

    When looked at as cyclical patterns in an overall rise / fall of interglacials, it all “just fits”. Nice. Tidy. The “Ahhh… of understanding” happens… then you branch out to corrolary data and it fits too (rise and fall of dynasties, for example). Then the “Ahhh” of history snapping into place, and a glimps of the future…

    I’d not be investing in Chinese land right now, but South American farms in Brazil ought to be a good bet ;-)

  4. Chuckles says:

    Nice, and in a similar vein,

    http://www.mapsofwar.com/images/EMPIRE17.swf

  5. E.M.Smith says:

    Love that animated map.

    It does a much better job of showing the places that expand into an area. What would be nearly perfect would be such a map with the B.E. and 1/2 B.E. date stamped and a very pale cool blue / warm pink “wash” as the times turned. Then you could see the corrolation pretty clearly…

    I also like the way it lets you see things like the Roman Empire expanding to cover ‘both turfs’ and how some of the other empires spread ‘each way’.

    One thing is for sure. You don’t want to live in the area of the Levant nor a couple of countries in either direction from it. Keeps changing empires too much ;-)

  6. Malaga View says:

    “But Hope is not a strategy.” – E.M.Smith

    “Hope for the best, plan for the worst.” – Jack Reacher

  7. Malaga View says:

    Mike: I can’t leave you here after an earthquake.
    Kelly Roark: Why not? I’m 13 years old. I know what to do.
    Mike: OK. What do you do?
    Kelly: Get in the door frame, stick your head between your knees, and kiss your ass goodbye.

    http://www.bookrags.com/quotes/Volcano

  8. Malaga View says:

    Interesting article over at eruptions:

    Volcanoes of the World, Third Edition: A Review
    http://bigthink.com/ideas/31496

    Are volcanic eruptions increasing in frequency?
    Answer: No, but our ability to find/report eruptions are, thus the apparent “increase” in number of known eruptions. I get this question a lot and I can understand why this perception might exist, but as the authors explicitly state “Even in the last two centuries, we find historical trends in reporting overshadowing any real trend in volcanism”.

  9. Dear E.M.: Let me tell you, first, that I subscribe entirely with:
    Ken McMurtrie
    EM, you are a legend.
    Your posts never cease to amaze me with so many impressive aspects of so many different issues.

    Now, as for chronology: It depends on dating and dating techniques ….
    This chronology has been drastically modified with the recent discoverement of, first, of the oldest city in America, which predates the pyramids: Google for CARAL.
    http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message511352/pg1
    Then the discoverment of Lower Sechin:
    http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message511352/pg1
    Last, but more interesting: The first chinese writing was the QUIPU (KEE-POO), a knot writing found also in Peru, South America:


    And an older city under the Pacific coast of Peru:

  10. oldtimer says:

    An interesting chart but, I think, the format (long with straight sides) limits its utility. The ideas it develops, and much more, are covered in considerable detail in the book I mentioned a day or so ago – Why the West Rules – For Now by Ian Morris (publisher Profile Books in the UK and Farrar, Straus and Giroux in the USA). You will while a way many a happy hour reading it and matching what it describes with bond and half bond events.

    In a number of cases the author specifically puts climate change, including consequential migrations, among the causes of the rise and fall of communities and their social development into states and empires. Mastery of technology (from farming to metal working) and the development of organisational skills also figure in his story.

    I am, slowly, working my way through it; I am now up to 1000 BCE, only c3000 years to go.

  11. PhilJourdan says:

    Fascinating! Your run down reads quickly as you keep to the point and splice in the seasoning! Thanks for the run down! It saved my frying brain from WLCs and Radius!

  12. E.M.Smith says:

    @Adolfo:

    I’d love to have a similar chronology that included more American history, but it’s not readily avilable. I’d expect to find a pattern of repeated strong rains on the lead-in to solar minium in equatorial regions with more intense drought in places like Chile.

    I’ve familiar with Caral ( love the fact that no war preparations were found in the digs…). One of my “someday todo things” is to plot the major empires of America against known climate events and solar cycles and see what shows up. Did the Maya, Aztecs, or even Anastazi rise and fall in sync with a solar pattern? Is there evidence on the ground for shifts of rainfall?

    Unfortunately, that takes a load of original compilation time. It is much quicker to find it in the European history (as chronicalled in the map above). It would be a whole lot easier to find if the stupidity and religious zeal had not burned yet another great library in the Americas….

    FWIW, while you likely already know this, you ought to add to your litany of “Euro-centrism” the notion of paper…

    On what were the Maya codex written? Oh, yeah, paper… so exactly who inveneted what and where?…

    Made from the inner bark of a tree, but smoother than papyrus… just saying…

    Unfortunately, the missionaries were far too effective in their sterilization of competing knowledge and we are all impovrished for it.

    @oldtimer:

    Every map has a limitation and a feature. Often these are directly tied. So, for a general understanding of history, the straight format is severly limiting. (Did Persia REALLY get that much bigger, or where the others just shrinking?) Yet for RELATIVE strength, it is very very useful. So we can easily see that their is a “middle Asia” vs “Mediterranean” oscillator at work. That could be easily lost in a variable width chart and much harder to tease from a written record.

    So I have every intent to get, and read, the recommended book; but realize that every map has it’s use. Even the much maligned Mercator Projection is great for navigation as a course is a straight line…

    @PhilJourdan:

    Wireless Lan Configuration? I don’t want to ask… (And I presume the “Radius” is not geographic but the authentication kind…) Well, glad I could help!

    FWIW, this is a ‘quick cut’ at something I fantasize of doing but will likely never get done. A full animation of the globe showing world history as Empires come and go and as the 1470 ish year cycle of climate plays out. I think it would say a great deal… If possible, I’d have a red / blue background ‘wash’ for temperature and a green / tan one for precipitation. Then as areas turn “bluish tan” you know they are cold and dry, while turquoise would show wet and cold, red-brown would be hot and dry. The mix of red and green depends on exact shades chosen, but tends toward blackish, for hot and wet. A darker green with pinker red can give variation of green toward dark that I think would work better…

    At any rate, that background, with an overlay of pattern (yellow stripes vs magenta dots for example) as empires come and go would likely visualize quite rapidly what was going on. So an area starts to turn red-brown and the empire polka-dots start contracting and it ought to just jump out at you…

    At the same time, some nearby empire is getting more turquoise, say, or even darkening green, and they suddenly have their stripes overrun the retreating polka dots… At least, that’s the kind of thing I’d expect to see.

    Oh, for 1/10 th of the “Wet Kiss” Obama gave to Mann in his “stimulus package”… (inuendo intended ;-)

  13. E.M.Smith says:

    @R. de Haan:

    OK, now you’ve gone WAY over the line.

    That article darned near caused me to spit my beer while reading it… That is just NOT acceptable. Please provide suitable warnings next time!

    It was this bit:

    That makes spending the €22 million on climate change research a real shame. That would have been a useful down-payment on a new icebreaker … especially as the meteorologists are warning that ice coverage on the Baltic could expand further in the coming days, possibly setting a new record. But then, what do they know? The proper, EU scientists are working from computer models, and they beat icebreakers any day – there is no ice … move along please.

    I’m reminded of a Peter Sellers movie “Go To The WEENdow… ” and look out it, please…

  14. John F. Hultquist says:

    [Not finding a place for general notes, I’ll stick this here, but you may not want to have it in this posting. Feel free to snip it.]
    Knowing your interest in technology, and that would include batteries:

    All the buzz about electric cars and their Lithium batteries seems not to mention what happens when those batteries reach the end of their useful life in an auto. One company that has a recycling process is TOXCO and their web site explains the process.
    http://www.toxco.com/processes.html

    The description suggests the process is both hazardous and costly. They also received a $9.5 Million award from DOE to expand at Lancaster, OH.
    http://www.toxco.com/docs/Toxco%20DOE.pdf

    The product of recycling is said to be lithium carbonate. This compound is explained at
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_carbonate

    . . . including several useful industrial applications and its medical (psychiatry) use. It also imparts a deep red color to fireworks. I wonder what happens in a serious collision?

    Tesla Motors seems to have gone to a different place and there it claims some of the lithium will end up in an inert slag material that may go into roadways.
    http://green.autoblog.com/2011/01/31/tesla-teams-with-umicore-to-recycle-battery-packs-in-europe/

    Although a bit old (Nov. 2006) this site . . .

    http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/bit-about-batteries
    . . . describes the Tesla “energy storage system” or ESS (aka, a battery) in some detail.

    Interestingly, one feature is its slowly decreasing capacity. “If, for example, you drive 10,000 miles per year at the end of five years you will have around 70 percent of the energy storage capacity of when new.”

    This technology, business plans, and so on, change rapidly so what I have related above may no longer be true. Anyway, I think it is interesting that these cars are being subsidized throughout their life, lithium is fairly rare, electricity isn’t free, use is subsidized with free charging stations in some cases, the battery shrinks over time (with or without usage), and recycling seems to be hazardous and costly. Lots more could be said.

    Oh, it just started snowing here – 50 miles east of Snoqualmie Pass in Washington State. Batteries don’t work as well in the cold and keeping the driver and passengers warm, . . hmm – requires wool or down.

  15. Malaga View says:

    Christchurch Quake Map
    http://www.christchurchquakemap.co.nz/

    Let it load up… then it runs through the earthquakes in Christchurch…
    shock and awe is not the right phrase…

  16. John F. Hultquist says:

    [Not finding a place for general notes, I’ll stick this here, but you may not want to have it in this posting. Feel free to snip it.]
    Knowing your interest in technology, and that would include batteries:

    All the buzz about electric cars and their Lithium batteries seems not to mention what happens when those batteries reach the end of their useful life in an auto. One company that has a recycling process is TOXCO and their web site explains the process.
    http://www.toxco.com/processes.html

    The description suggests the process is both hazardous and costly. They also received a $9.5 Million award from DOE to expand at Lancaster, OH.
    http://www.toxco.com/docs/Toxco%20DOE.pdf

    The product of recycling is said to be lithium carbonate. This compound is explained at
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_carbonate

    . . . including several useful industrial applications and its medical (psychiatry) use. It also imparts a deep red color to fireworks. I wonder what happens in a serious collision?

    Tesla Motors seems to have gone to a different place and there it claims some of the lithium will end up in an inert slag material that may go into roadways.
    http://green.autoblog.com/2011/01/31/tesla-teams-with-umicore-to-recycle-battery-packs-in-europe/

    Although a bit old (Nov. 2006) this site . . .

    http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/bit-about-batteries
    . . . describes the Tesla “energy storage system” or ESS (aka, a battery) in some detail.

    Interestingly, one feature is its slowly decreasing capacity. “If, for example, you drive 10,000 miles per year at the end of five years you will have around 70 percent of the energy storage capacity of when new.”

    This technology, business plans, and so on, change rapidly so what I have related above may no longer be true. Anyway, I think it is interesting that these cars are being subsidized throughout their life, lithium is fairly rare, electricity isn’t free, use is subsidized with free charging stations in some cases, the battery shrinks over time (with or without usage), and recycling seems to be hazardous and costly. Lots more could be said.

    Oh, it just started snowing here – 50 miles east of Snoqualmie Pass in Washington State. Batteries don’t work as well in the cold and keeping the driver and passengers warm, . . hmm – requires wool or down.

  17. E.M.Smith says:

    @John F. Hultquist:

    It probably would fit best under a very old thread about Lithium (where it’s unlikely to be seen…)

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/09/23/lithium-electric-cars-and-bolivian-socialists/

    or even under the tread about DIY fuels:

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2011/02/23/diy-gasoline-and-diesel-from-wood-and-trash/

    But as this thread is about temperatures and batteries fail in cold temperatures, hey, close enough ;-)

    FWIW, Lithium isn’t all that toxic. There is Lithia Park in Ashland Oregon where the older parts of town had three faucettes, Hot, Cold, and Lithia Water; so you could easily get your lithium dose… The park still has Lithia Water fountains and folks still go to fill their bottles…

    http://lithiapark.com/

    Every year they have the Shakespear Festival and folks always come away from it feeling good about the place ;-)

    Lithium, being in rather short supply and most of that owned by a Socialist Government, I’d not be putting it in landfills or in cement…

    The Tesla battery is an interesting thing. I attended a presentation by Tesla at Stanford about it. It’s basically made of a gazillion small cells as used in laptops (so they can lever off of all THAT R&D). Their “value add” being individual cell managment including electrical isolation of individual cells that go bad as the pack ages.

    But yeah, nobody talks much about your 100 mile range being 70 miles after a few years… or your 60 being 40… or what happens when your old 70 mile pack meets a cold winter day and THAT cuts it another 1/3 and you now go about 45 miles on your “100 mile” range car.

    FWIW, I’m REALLY looking forward to buying my first Electric Car in about 4 or 5 years when folks realize they are screwed….. then I’ll replace the battery pack with one of my own fabrication and go on my way… (The Prius, at least the early ones, just uses industrial D cells, so it’s not hard to ‘roll your own’… though I’m now wondering how many old Priai are now running on gasoline all the time as the battery is cooked and they just don’t know it…)

    At any rate, batteries are, and have been, and will be, the “Achillies Heel” of electric cars.

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