Over on WUWT there is an article about NASA tying again to explain sunspot funk. In that article, Vukcevic posts another of his tiny little comments that are almost entirely just a link.
Sunspots have not gone missing, they are not there because the sun is taking its well deserved break.
What is at the other end of that link is the graph at the top of this posting.
I’ve put it here just so I can look at it frequently and without needing to find it on WUWT or in the thousand and one things that are in my ‘bookmarks’ file.
Because he’s found or made a very useful tool. Want to know what will be happening to the sun (and from that, to the weather and to social order) in 10 or 20 years? Consult the graph. Solar sloth and funk to continue and become even deeper through 2030 at least. In 2024 when it’s sitting on the zero line, expect some pretty low solar flux and very low UV levels (and with that, colder times, more crop failures, and really cranky people with low Vit-D levels leading to more Seasonal Affective Disorder world wide and in all seasons).
Speculative? No mechanism? Lack of causality? I suppose so… but I’ll take an R-squared of 0.93 any day over anything NASA has given us in the last decade or two. In stock and commodity trading, there are a lot of things that you use because they work, not because anyone can show you the mechanism. I’m “good with that”.
These Guys Too
Here is a paper that looks at it from a mechanistic point of view and also is predicting a Solar Grand Minimum:
We summarize recent findings about periodicities in the solar tachocline and their physical interpretation. These lead us to conclude that solar variability is presently entering into a long Grand Minimum, this being an episode of very low solar activity, not shorter than a century. A consequence is an improvement of our earlier forecast of the strength at maximum of the present Schwabe cycle (#24). The maximum will be late (2013.5), with a sunspot number as low as 55.
So what we’ve got now is only the start, and we’re headed into a long period of solar sloth that ought to yield cooling, IMHO. Welcome to Bond Event Zero (c)… Where nations fall, crops fail, the world grows cold, Expect droughts in Africa and too much cold and rain in Europe. Russian Winters to be worse than seen in a hundred years, and if a volcano or two blows it’s top (that also ought to happen) expect snow in New England in summer.
The good news is that we’ve got about a decade to prepare before the worst of it gets here. The bad news is that we’re not preparing, our “leaders” are doing exactly the wrong things.