Related to the Dry China posting is this prediction of turbulence over Asia. Notice anything?
Yup, that “dip” where the jet stream pulls down south more:
So my working thesis is that as the sun goes sleepy, the UV plunges. This stops heating the upper air layers, so the whole atmosphere compresses and gets thinner. As a consequence, the Rossby Waves get deeper and we get a more “loopy jet stream”. This tends to have more cold dry arctic air plunging further equatorward. As the position of the loops wobbles, you get more extreme cold or hot events as you are on one side or the other of the interface (whereas with the ‘hot cycle’ flatter jet stream, folks on the margin are more likely to stay consistently on one side or the other and have more consistent weather).
OK, so far so good. But what about if stochastically there is a tendency for some places to spend more total time under a ‘dip’ than others? Say, places like China, for example. Especially those northern wheat growing regions?
The working thesis is that this is the method by which China gets sporadic drought and famine during “cold cycles”. It gets more of the “polar loop” than it did before, with much much less rain to give.
I’m not sure how to validate this, as it’s unlikely there were folks recording Rossby Waves in the 1700’s or 2000 BC, but there ought to be a way…
The other half of this coin is that the tropical cell (Hadley cell) ought to be getting squashed closer to the equator too. (It would be very interesting to find out if it is higher, or lower, average height… does the equatorward squashing overcome the lower UV lack of altitude heating?) At any rate, the Intertropical Convergence Zone ought to be keeping more of its water closer to home, thus the added drenching in northern South America and Australia.
At any rate, that’s the raw undercooked thesis. Does a general shift of the Hadley, Ferrel, etc cells and a compression of the atmosphere lead to greater turbulence in the decending air locations, more rain in the intertropical convergence zone, greater drought in those places with stochastic resonance tendencies to be under arctic influenced dry air more often, and all of this caused by the dramatic change in solar UV output?
IFF that ties up the bundle, then we’ve got a generically useful predictor for who will have crop failures when, and what insurance companies are more likely to be paying out for floods and similar damage. We also could predict when airliners would be having more turbulence issues, along with when countries will have more civil unrest (aka food riots).
Now all it needs is a way to verify it… And to answer if if follows the cycle of Bond Events and 1/2 Bond Events…
BTW, I call this thesis the “Lava Lamp World”…