Quakes SF to Cascadia

This is an interesting line of quakes. They ‘start’ down near the central coast, a bit off the San Andreas, then head up past San Francisco and Berkeley / Oakland and on out to sea at the bottom of the Cascadia Subduction Zone.

Yes, they are all “small” in the “3.x” range. No, nothing much to “worry about”. Yet.

But it is the “watch here” marker of a cluster or “line” of quakes where there has been much lower activity in the last few months / years. There are 178 quakes on this close up at this time. That’s rather a lot. I’m located more or less smack dab in the middle of the yellow cluster at San Jose. We’re “wiggling” a tiny.

Quakes SF to Cascadia 17 March 2011 32.42.-130.-120

Quakes SF to Cascadia 17 March 2011 32.42.-130.-120

A “live map” of the same place:

Quakes SF to Cascadia live USGS map

Quakes SF to Cascadia live USGS map

Yes, it could be “nothing” and yes, “small ones” happen all the time. They also increase in frequency and form patterns just before a “big one” and we have a history of the Hayward / Calaveras system (just inland from SF) “letting go” some years after the San Andreas (though the Loma Prieta quake was not a ‘great quake’ so may not quite be enough stimulus). There is also a history of the Cascadia and Japan having great quakes in the same decade, so it’s worth a bit of worry…


I also note that there were quakes today all along that North American Plate arc from Mexico (and even one down in Chile on that plate), Alaska, and on in to Russia. I’ve posted their detailed statistics in a comment here:


I think this is an interesting view of it:

Quakes PNW View NH 17 Mar 2011 240_30

Quakes PNW View NH 17 Mar 2011 240_30

Live Map of the same area with clickable details

Here are some “close ups” of live maps of North America, so you can see those “Mexico and Alasaka” quakes in context, and another map after that of California, so you can see how the rest of the state is just covered in dots. More than I’ve seen in the last few years, and many of them getting bigger now.

North America

North America and Mid Atlantic Ridge Quake Map

North America and Mid Atlantic Ridge Quake Map

Original with clickable details

For more on how the plates lay out and where things connect, see: https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2011/03/13/plates-ridges-and-north-america/ )

And remember, I have a dedicated CSZ page with closeups

California Map

Action Closer to Me

373 total quakes as I’m making this posting.

Current quake map in California

Current quake map in California

Original Image, with captions and description. The original is interactive with clickable regions for ‘close ups’.

What’s Happening Now

I’m keeping these Japan close ups in the mix until the area settles down. There may yet be an “8.x” aftershock in the area…

A panel, off to the East, with most of the quakes:

Quakes Japan Close up - A bit off to the right...

Quakes Japan Close up - A bit off to the right...

Original With Clickable Areas

The “interesting line” all about 10 km deep… just to the East:

Quakes, Japan close up, More North

Quakes, Japan close up, More North

Original With Clickable Areas

Centered on Tokyo and Mount Fuji:

Japan Local Map, Near Honshu

Japan Local Map, Near Honshu

Original With Clickable Areas

Quakes in Eurasia

Quakes in Japan / Eurasia

Original with clickable regions to zoom in

Australia / New Zealand

This is a map of the Australia / Indonesia / New Zealand area:

Australia / Indonesia / New Zealand Quake Map

Australia / Indonesia / New Zealand Quake Map

Original with clickable regions to zoom in

Here is a “live view” of South America so you can watch anything “new” that develops there:

Southern South America Hemispheric View

Southern South America Hemispheric View

South America with “clickable” areas for more details.

Southern Hemisphere

A view of Earthquakes from the South Pole

A view of Earthquakes from the South Pole

Original Image with Clickable Details

Northern Hemisphere

North Polar Earthquake Map

North Polar Earthquake Map

Original Image with Clickable Details


The line of total seismic energy is continuing it’s very vertical climb… I think Iceland will be “sooner rather than later”…

Take a look again at the Iceland Volcano Watch Metric posting. The total seismic energy line continues to go ever more vertical.

Some Volcano Stuff

This page:

http://pangea.stanford.edu/~dsinnett/Pages/Links.html has a nice collection of links to volcano monitor pages. Just click the pictures for the different volcano observatories.

The Smithsonian page:


Is only updated on Wednesdays…


claims to have an exhaustive list of observatories that does include a Filippino one. That link tells you the original site no longer exists… but assuming the rest of the links are valid, it’s still a nice list to have.

I put that link into a google search and got what I think is the new, valid, address:


FWIW, it has some nice maps and general information, but does not look to be oriented toward “breaking news”… At any rate, there’s some volcano links, but looks like the general news is a better source for “It JUST Blew UP!”…

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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51 Responses to Quakes SF to Cascadia

  1. Thank you for the maps and interesting details of deep-seated rearrangements that are occurring inside the Earth.

    Is this information freely available to the public?

    Is there similar, on-going information available on the damaged nuclear reactors in Japan?

    My concern is that fears feed on misinformation.


  2. Jason Calley says:

    @ E.M. You may already know this, but I just received this in an email, and it made sense.

    Begin extract: **************************


    My name is Doug Copp. I am the Rescue Chief and Disaster Manager of the American Rescue Team International (ARTI ), the world’s most experienced rescue team. The information in this article will save lives in an earthquake.

    I have crawled inside 875 collapsed buildings, worked with rescue teams from 60 countries, founded rescue teams in several countries, and I am a member of many rescue teams from many countries. I was the United Nations expert in Disaster Mitigation for two years, and have worked at every major disaster in the world since 1985, except for simultaneous disasters.

    The first building I ever crawled inside of was a school in Mexico City during the 1985 earthquake. Every child was under its desk. Every child was crushed to the thickness of their bones. They could have survived by lying down next to their desks in the aisles. It was obscene — unnecessary.

    Simply stated, when buildings collapse, the weight of the ceilings falling upon the objects or furniture inside crushes these objects, leaving a space or void next to them – NOT under them. This space is what I call the ‘triangle of life’. The larger the object, the stronger, the less it will compact. The less the object compacts, the larger the void, the greater the probability that the person who is using this void for safety will not be injured. The next time you watch collapsed buildings, on television, count the ‘triangles’ you see formed. They are everywhere. It is the most common shape, you will see, in a collapsed building.


    1) Most everyone who simply ‘ducks and covers’ when building collapse are crushed to death. People who get under objects, like desks or cars, are crushed.

    2) Cats, dogs and babies often naturally curl up in the fetal position. You should too in an earthquake. It is a natural safety/survival instinct. You can survive in a smaller void. Get next to an object, next to a sofa, next to a bed, next to a large bulky object that will compress slightly but leave a void next to it.

    3) Wooden buildings are the safest type of construction to be in during an earthquake. Wood is flexible and moves with the force of the earthquake. If the wooden building does collapse, large survival voids are created. Also, the wooden building has less concentrated, crushing weight. Brick buildings will break into individual bricks. Bricks will cause many injuries but less squashed bodies than concrete slabs.

    4) If you are in bed during the night and an earthquake occurs, simply roll off the bed. A safe void will exist around the bed. Hotels can achieve a much greater survival rate in earthquakes, simply by posting a sign on the back of the door of every room telling occupants to lie down on the floor, next to the bottom of the bed during an earthquake.

    5) If an earthquake happens and you cannot easily escape by getting out the door or window, then lie down and curl up in the fetal position next to a sofa, or large chair.

    6) Most everyone who gets under a doorway when buildings collapse is killed. How? If you stand under a doorway and the doorjamb falls forward or backward you will be crushed by the ceiling above. If the door jam falls sideways you will be cut in half by the doorway. In either case, you will be killed!

    7) Never go to the stairs. The stairs have a different ‘moment of frequency’ (they swing separately from the main part of the building). The stairs and remainder of the building continuously bump into each other until structural failure of the stairs takes place. The people who get on stairs before they fail are chopped up by the stair treads – horribly mutilated. Even if the building doesn’t collapse, stay away from the stairs. The stairs are a likely part of the building to be damaged. Even if the stairs are not collapsed by the earthquake, they may collapse later when overloaded by fleeing people. They should always be checked for safety, even when the rest of the building is not damaged.

    8) Get near the outer walls of buildings or outside of them if possible – It is much better to be near the outside of the building rather than the interior. The farther inside you are from the outside perimeter of the building the greater the probability that your escape route will be blocked.

    9) People inside of their vehicles are crushed when the road above falls in an earthquake and crushes their vehicles; which is exactly what happened with the slabs between the decks of the Nimitz Freeway. The victims of the San Francisco earthquake all stayed inside of their vehicles. They were all killed. They could have easily survived by getting out and sitting or lying next to their vehicles. Everyone killed would have survived if they had been able to get out of their cars and sit or lie next to them. All the crushed cars had voids 3 feet high next to them, except for the cars that had columns fall directly across them.

    10) I discovered, while crawling inside of collapsed newspaper offices and other offices with a lot of paper, that paper does not compact. Large voids are found surrounding stacks of paper.

    Spread the word and save someone’s life…

    The entire world is experiencing natural calamities so be prepared!

    ‘We are but angels with one wing, it takes two to fly’

    In 1996 we made a film, which proved my survival methodology to be correct. The Turkish Federal Government, City of Istanbul, University of Istanbul Case Productions and ARTI cooperated to film this practical, scientific test. We collapsed a school and a home with 20 mannequins inside. Ten mannequins did ‘duck and cover,’ and ten mannequins I used in my ‘triangle of life’ survival method. After the simulated earthquake collapse we crawled through the rubble and entered the building to film and document the results. The film, in which I practiced my survival techniques under directly observable, scientific conditions , relevant to building collapse, showed there would have been zero percent survival for those doing duck and cover.

    There would likely have been 100 percent survivability for people using my method of the ‘triangle of life.’ This film has been seen by millions of viewers on television in Turkey and the rest of Europe, and it was seen in the USA , Canada and Latin America on the TV program Real TV.

    End Extract: **********************

    I had always heard “Get under a desk or stand in a doorway.” This makes better sense.

  3. pyromancer76 says:

    FWIW, E Kemmeti has a post on Mt Fuji eruptions: http://bigthink.com/blogs/eruptions. Thanks to Jason Calley for survival information.

  4. E.M.Smith says:


    Nice page… something to keep me up ’till 4 am ;-)

    @Oliver K. Manuel:

    All of the graphs and data in these quake postings are publicly available at the USGS. Take any of the maps, click on the “live link” under them, and start exploring. (Or just truncate the link right after the .gov as:


    THey have LOADS of stuff, so be warned, it can be habit forming… Their ground movement and fault maps were how I chose my neighborhood. Lost 1 wine glass off the mantle in the Loma Prieta quake (variously called a 7.2 to a 6.9) “nearby”… so I’ve got to say they know their stuff on maps!

    @Jason Calley:

    Good stuff.

    I’d not seen it, though I’d heard a very short (2 sentences?) synopsis of it once. Nice to see the larger version (has more good ideas in it).

    During Loma Prieta ( 7.2 at the time, then revised to 6.9 or some such. I cling to my 7.2 “Credentials” and I’m going to give them up!) I learned some things.

    We, too, had always had the “duck and cover, under a desk, in a doorway”. It is wrong.

    1) I was “surfing the P wave” for the first, oh 15 seconds? (The P wave is the early up and down motion, it travels faster and gets there first).


    later the side to side Shear Wave or S wave arrives.


    OK, so I’m surfing the P wave and give a shout out “Oh Boy! It’s a BIG one!” and I’m lovin’ it.

    One of my staff BOLTED for the front door and was out it inside that 15 seconds (about 50 feet?).

    He road out the rest of the experience outside on the lawn with zero issues.

    When the S wave hit “things got worse” and stuff started moving side to side. Like the 8 foot metal fluorescent lamp fixture hung on ‘piano wire’ over my head.

    I decided, against my instincts, to “do what they told me to do” and get on hands an knees under the desk.

    First Lesson:

    The idea of being under a desk is to protect from falling little bits, not to save your life in a big one.

    I realized this as I thought through the mechanical assembly of my wooden panel desk / cube and the concrete walls of the slab building that we joking called “Tilt up/ Fall Down poured slab”. (Slabs are poured on the ground, then tilted into position and bolted together with a few bolts that can shear off… AFTER the quake, we did seismic retrofits…) I realized I was in a “Kill Box”.

    I looked to my filing cabinet and edged closer to it in the expectation it would hold up the (2 inch maple!) desk slab it was under…

    While on hands and knees, I learned that 200 lbs sitting still focused onto knees and wrists on concrete slabs bucking with the S wave will sprain your wrist.

    Lesson Two:

    Do not go on hands and knees. I was MUCH better off standing up not under the desk and could have just lurch walked out the front door.

    IFF you must “shelter in place”, do it on a soft surface of your body such as your butt or in the fetal position as above.

    Lesson Three:

    If you an at all get outside (and are NOT under a giant skyscraper that will rain gillotines of 1 inch thick glass shards on you from the windows…) get outside at the first P wave

    In small quakes, they will end while you are ‘on the way’. Large quakes are marked by much longer DURATION. In the Alaska quake it lasted 5 minutes. Even if you don’t think you have time to get outside, you have time to get outside.

    Keep an eye on “dive points” along the path (those “triangles”) as you dash for the exit. But DO dash for the exit.

    Later, folks shared stories. Our VP was in a tall tower. How tall? Well, by Silly Con Valley standards it was tall. 10 stories? Something like that. He was on the top floor giving a presentation. He was well trained.

    At the start of the quake, he ran to the conference room doorway.

    Tall buildings sway back and forth a lot.

    He got battered and bruised by the door as it swung into him.

    Lesson Four:

    Do not stand in doorways.

    He abandoned the doorway in time to have the AV cart throw a large TV at him (old Glass CRT type). He caught the TV (and another bruise) in mid air and both went to the floor where it proceeded to “massage” him a bit.

    Lesson Five”

    Do NOT go near things on wheels with poor or no brakes

    This was confirmed in the post-quake survey.

    We had a bunch of VAXen computers. About 12 foot long, 5 ish foot tall 3 foot or so deep monsters. They had no damage. They just rolled around as the floor moved under them. IF you were next to one, it would have been “exciting”.

    Things bolted down had damage. The quake shook them.

    So of course, after the quake, we had a mandatory retrofit program from “management” to bolt every computer and rack to the concrete subfloor with giant steel bolts to “protect” the equipment.

    Lesson Six:

    Management / Central Authority is often clueless and gives bad guidance (but you already knew that…)

    OK, back at the quake. Just after the main shock settled…

    We then proceeded to “muster” outside. Not very hard as it was daylight and sunshine came in the windows. IF the quake had been at night, this would have been very hard as there were NO lights on (other than a couple of emergency exit lights at the outside doors… these were behind the magnetic fire doors that auto closed when the power went off… ) In the computer room, where there were no windows, the operations staff were left with the 2 small “this is the door” battery driven emergency exit lights (that last a couple of hours, then are done.) If you were in the far end of the room, it was black.

    OK, the operators were pretty bright (I hired them ;-) so immediatley grabbed a laptop and used it as a ‘flashlight’ to get out.

    After head count, I decided on the spot that we were going to be shut down for at least 3 days. I ‘called for volunteers’ to help me “lock down the place” and told everyone else to go home, take care of their families.

    The volunteers and I went inside and variously unplugged, shut off, locked up, and then threw the main breakers to OFF. No need for surge and flickers to burn up equipment and poised for a ‘staged restart’ when that time came. Done inside 15-20 minutes and everyone back outside the building before any aftershocks of size hit.

    ALL done using 1 crappy 2 cell “emergency flashlight” and several Laptop Lanterns.

    Lesson Seven:

    ALWAYS have a flashlight

    Variously, a Mag Light in 2 cell AAA or AA has lived on my belt or in my pocket or bag or briefcase every day ever since. I’ve recently upgraded it to the 2 cell AAA LED light.

    It is THE most frequently used thing I carry, other than my key ring, (and is almost used as much). You will find hundreds of times it is useful. Do it.
    Do it now.

    I also have larger Maglights in most of the rooms of the house (so someone sitting on the sofa can just reach out and grab it, no looking) and a AAA 2 cell in each car glove box. (Partly this “excess” was from our Rolling Blackouts under Dem. Gov. Greyout Davis… These lights have been well used too…)

    Several folks had minor “issues” from headache to sprains (me) to scrapes etc. Several folks also had first aid kits in cars (did I mention I’d hired them ;-) Several had Diesels too ;-) And hot sports cars and Mercedes… 8-0

    At any rate, other than a passion for hot cars, performance cars, and Extraordinarily durable and economic cars, we also shared a collection of first aid kits.

    Lesson Eight:

    Have A First Aid Kit in car and office (And I’d add to it some ‘bigger stuff’ they don’t put in them. Sling. BIG bandage pads. Nylon thread and needle. Yes, to sew up wounds. A doctor can fix it later… Bottle of alcohol and hydrogen peroxide (if you can store it safely, i.e. not in the car trunk) and a package of diphenhydramine. It’s an allergy medicine that also acts as a topical anesthetic. Open the capule and sprinkle it in the wound. It will burn (anesthetics do that) then numb up enough to sew… Also can be put under the tongue for allergic shock)

    Some folks could not get home (road closed from slides, fires, traffic stuck behind stopped fire trucks, etc.)

    Lesson Nine:

    Have some food and a way to prepare it in your car, along with a large (2 liter minimum) water bottle. Have a “space blanket” or large blanket or at least a long “trench coat” in your car. Even in summer. You may be living in the thing for a few days. A roll of paper towels and small camping shovel will be nice for “later”… I keep a “3 day kit” in the car if I’m away from home further than walking distance. Speaking of which, keep some comfy shoes in the car for walking home…

    On the way home, I saw a lady in a business suit directing traffic at one intersection, a bike rider in spandex at the next. Folks ofering rides to those on foot. People sharing what was needed.

    Lesson Ten:

    It will be at least 3 days before anyone from “outside” will be helping. You will be doing “self rescue” until then. Accept that. Also accept that those around you are pretty good folks, and you can all do a lot if you all ‘pitch in’. Don’t wait for help. Help while you wait.

    When I got home, I found 2 sets of “neighbors and friends” at our home. We had power, food, and a satellite TV (new then) so we had “news” while everyone else had “dark”. We had a “Wine and Cheese Quake Party” as we watch the news from out of state.

    Lesson Eleven:

    The news is clueless By their reports, we were destroyed, destitute, flattened, needing emergency help from the rest of the world, squashed under cars and burning to the ground.

    In fact there were a couple of hundred folks flattened under a fallen freeway (one I regularly used… and had wondered about…) and there were a couple of blocks on fire in San Francisco. All being “self rescued”.

    Lesson Twelve:

    Don’t ever hang out on the lower deck of double decker road structures. Do NOT come to a halt under the cross beams. DO come to a halt Near them, then get out and lay next to the car (if you can’t dive off an off ramp pronto…) If you are in the car and the roof starts falling, lay down on the floor in front of the seat as a last ditch effort. Even if the car has not come to a halt yet…

    The bottom line of all this is that an earthquake, even a 7.x quake, is a pleasant and fun ride. It’s the crap falling on you that’s the problem. So when in doubt, just commune with nature on the nearest patch of lawn.

    And that is why I would only take contracts in San Francisco High Rise buildings for very short durations and only as a last resort. For you will be ‘sway beaten’ as the building survives nicely by swaying and you get to catch TV sets… or cut to ribbons by falling debris and can not make it to a nice grass park from the 10th floor…

    So that’s my contribution to “what to do when the P wave comes’. Run like hell for the lawn…

  5. mddwave says:

    Where is your source for the statement, “The line of total seismic energy is continuing it’s very vertical climb.”

  6. E.M.Smith says:


    Personal observation of the graph over the last weeks since I put it up. The line was much lower when I first saw the graph, made those two ‘vertical jumps’ in that last 100 days or so of the red line, and continues on up from there.

    Yes, it is a “cumulative” graph so will only ever go up, but look at the start of the graph. Slope is low. Look at the last 100 days. Slope much more nearly “vertical”. I.e. it’s over a 45 degree slope and closer to 75 degrees by my eyeball of it.

    (Note that the comment is directly connected to that link to the Iceland graph and refers to it, not to the entire globe).

  7. Baa Humbug says:

    Hi E M

    Thought you may be interested in this new animation by GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences

    “In a new graphic animation, German researchers illustrate a series of seismic quakes that occurred Japan from March 8 to March 16, including a magnitude 7.2 quake that occurred two days before the massive quake that devastated the country. The animated graphic, produced by researchers at the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, shows that after a seismically quiet day on March 8 in the region of Honshu, a large quake occurred off Japan’s east coast on the morning of March 9, followed by a series of aftershocks. The massive quake triggering the catastrophic tsunami occurred two days later, on March 11, which was followed by several major aftershocks, two of which nearly reached magnitude 8. The scientists estimated that the length of the main quake was about 400 kilometers (248 miles) based on the distribution of aftershocks. Overall, they registered 428 earthquakes in the region during this period.”

    was via Yale Environment 360


  8. E.M.Smith says:

    @Baa Humbug:

    Thanks, I’ll take a look. The description is interesting…

    FWIW, as all the quake graphs are in UTC and a lot of the folks reading here are spread all over the planet, I’ve shifted the blog clock widget to UTC too. So postings from here on out will look like they are in central England ;-)

  9. vukcevic says:

    I found it a bit odd that number of earthquakes of magnitude = > 4.5 has suddenly fallen in the rest of the world, while there were literally hundreds in the Honshu area, as if somehow the forces locked in the tectonic plates around globe are relaxed or being directed at this single point. Such scenario is inconceivable with the present understanding, as far as I know, but if so a major ‘rethink’ is due.
    As some of you may have noted I am conducting a minor survey of geomagnetic storms and earthquakes
    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/gms.htm updated daily.
    In view of the above, I would not expect anything major in the next few days, since I think the Moon (blobs on my graph) was intensifying tension, magnetic storm hit last weak and whole thing snapped i.e.
    tectonic fault gone critical + magnetic storm trigger = earthquake.
    Time will tell.

  10. parallel says:

    You may be interested in this forecast for an earthquake on the West Coast, in the very near future.
    See http://www.lewrockwell.com/rep2/berkland-earthquake-prediction.html

    Jim Berkland has a pretty good record for forecasting these events and it seems several factors are lining up to increase the risk.

  11. Crashex says:

    You didn’t mention of the upcoming “super-moon”.

    Any thoughts on how much influence a subtle change to the local gravity constant might change the plate dynamics?

  12. vukcevic says:

    I know the moon is at closest tomorrow, but I have no idea about the distance change from the 11th to 19th, but gravitation increases very gradually, while the magnetic storm’s intensity from one extreme to the other changed few times within space of hours.
    (see graph no 4 in http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/gms.htm) , for el. currents induction it is the rate of change in the magnetic flux which is critical.
    In short ‘super-moon’ was doing its job, but it got cut short by the magnetic storm on 10-11th; huge number of strong aftershocks may have to do something with the ‘s-m’ too.

  13. Malaga View says:

    @ Crashex
    You didn’t mention of the upcoming “super-moon”.

    The Christchurch Daily Energy Release graph is a live case study if you are looking for lunar influences:

  14. E.M.Smith says:


    I didn’t mention it as it’s getting plenty of “play” elsewhere and I’ve not got much to add. I expect it to act as a ‘trigger’ to events. Beyond that, I’ve not got much to add. Basically, I’m in “wait and see” land like everyone else.

    Part of my issue is that I can a mechanism for EITHER full moon or 1/4 moon effects. Full moon has greater tidal “lift” but at the quartering position you are pulling the plates apart with gravity from Sun and moon working on the 90 degree line. I’ve just not got a good enough “mental model” of it all to know which does what to whom ;-)

    So all I can really see is that “closer moon means more total” and we already knew that….

    @Malaga View:

    Facinating chart. While they say no “clear, obvous, corrolation” in the distance and phase graphs with quake energy I see one that just shouts at me…

    From the start toward the end, as the phase of the two becomes “out of phase” total energy slopes downward, then levels off about 13/12/2010. From that point forward (with presumably some pent up energy from the earier out of phase bits) we get a “spike” on each lunar distance minumum as the distance and “full moon” phase drift back into sync. THE biggest release coming just at closest lunar approach and maximum full moon are back in best phase.

    I note in passing what looks like a ‘minor node’ just after the large release with ‘new moon and furthest distance’… and a very similar one just before the major release about 01 / jan / 2011.

    So this whole thing just shouts at me that “It’s the phase (stupid)” and that a product of distance and lunar phase is the likely best indicator (though you would need both a major and minor node calc to catch those ‘far and new’ as well as the ‘full and near’ nodes…)

    Then again, I see the world a bit differently ;-)

  15. E.M.Smith says:


    You want to watch that link above:


    he connects megnetite in animals with their observed behaviour changes AND with “magnetic changes” just before quakes hit…

  16. vukcevic says:

    Interesting set of events I was not aware of, but now I am on record : no big earthquakes away from Honshu in next 2-4 days unless a huge magnetic storm strikes again. Time will tell.

  17. Jim says:

    Check out this EQ frequency map of the world. Looks like we are relatively OK in the US.


  18. Crashex says:

    @Malaga View

    Interesting plot of the Christchurch region. Anybody find a source of that kind of data for a given plate or hemisphere? It would have to cover a longer period of time to include several of the “super-moon” cycles. I’d expect the seimologists have been all over this kind of analysis.

  19. George says:

    If a moon is going to trigger a quake, then it has to be one that is “ready to go” anyway. In other words, if that moon didn’t “trigger it” then it would have gone on its own anyway and probably with greater impact as it would have been able to build up additional stress in the meantime.

    Have a look at all the places where a quake DIDN’T happen. There are a lot of those. So it is plausible that a moon might change the timing of a quake slightly but I don’t believe it would cause any quakes that wouldn’t have happened anyway. Any increase in quakes as a result of lunar proximity would be expected to be followed by a corresponding decrease in quakes below the normal level once it moves away. As this has not been shown to happen, there is probably no link.

  20. Jason Calley says:

    @E.M. Thanks so much for the first person report of your earthquake experience. I will take personal reports (especially from competent observers!) over theoretical analysis every time! Also, very good idea about “a package of diphenhydramine. It’s an allergy medicine that also acts as a topical anesthetic.” That is what I call good and practical information, and not something I had ever ran across elsewhere.

    By the way, it is a good idea to have some antihistamines around, not just for hay fever, but for allergic reactions. I speak from recent personal experience. About six months ago I was working on some bee hives and got stung. No big deal, I’ve been stung before and never had a problem. This time was different. I started feeling hot and woozy, went inside and realized I was having an allergic reaction. Tingling lips and fingers. I reached for the medicine cabinet and took a double dose of standard over-the-counter antihistamines. In retrospect I probably should have chewed at least one pill for faster absorption. Told the wife to drive me to the emergency room just as I had some tunnel vision set in, and I lay down on the floor. She called the local (very local — just a few blocks) fire station and they were there within minutes. Oddly enough, at least in my opinion, they seemed VERY concerned that I had taken a double dose of antihistamines. I had three different people ask me at least two or three times each, while I pointed to the bottle and said “Yes. That is what I took.” After warning me to go to the emergency room if I had breathing problems, they left. About two minutes later I broke out in hives (oh, the irony!) from head to foot, but no breathing problems. I was mostly OK by the next day, but I do think that quick access to antihistamines made the difference between unpleasant and dangerous. Sure did not know that they could be an anesthetic though!

    Regarding self help in disasters, I have taught my son pretty much the same lesson for him and his family, that you write. “Do not rely on some one else to save you. If you can, walk to safety; you can be fifty miles away in two days even if you don’t have food. If things are flooded, get a canoe, motorboat, rowboat, kayak, sailboat or home made raft, but leave the area as soon as possible. If governmental action is taking place (anything from FEMA to soldiers, peacetime or war) do not EVER become an inhabitant of a refugee camp. Live in the woods of you must, but do not become one in a mass of herded people.”

  21. E.M.Smith says:


    Interesting map. I’d be more “comfortable’ about the USA being safe if I knew the time range. As it is, it could just be “The Pacific US Coast is building up for the Really Big One”!


    OK people the ball is rolling the wheel is spinning last chance to get your bets down on the table… RED Quake or BLUE no-Quake… Place Your Bets…



    The problem I have with it is that it starts with “the big one” that doesn’t fit the pattern I saw. I’d love to see a ‘pre-big one’ pattern too, and see if there is a ‘pattern swap’ at the event.

    FWIW, the present crop of “scientists” is highly trained in not thinking. They are trained in various kinds of formal mathematical analysis, but not in the thinking that goes behind them. For them it’s “tools first, thought second” when it ought to be the other way around.

    So they would mostly never even look at the graph, and if they did, they would not see it. It would be subjected to a variety of numeric manipulations, as though statistics somehow brought insight. But it never does…

    They have their analytical lights turned up so bright that they are blinded by the light… and can’t see the subject anymore…

    FWIW this one is cleaner:

    and this one is probably artistically the best (better sound mix and ‘cool’ video effects);

    but the one that speaks to my soul is this ‘poor’ quality one… why? It’s more “truthful” (not “truthy”…) and honest:

    as much of the early ’70s had that sort of fuzzy blobs of colors occasional ‘skips’ aspect; at least as I remember it ;-)

  22. E.M.Smith says:


    Your premise is sound, your logic is clean, and your conclusion “needs work”…

    Expand your timeline to decades or centuries, then “try again”.

    So something builds over 500 years, then gets triggered on a 60 year or 120 year cycle… it is disappeared in the statistical analysis… but the trigger is still there, and as my life is on the order of 60 years, and not 500, this matters to me.

    (have the volume up and at least ‘3 beers to the wind’ for this one, IMHO):

    we are but bugs climbing up the mountains of life… and a small time horizon and small statistics don’t caputer what is to be experienced on the Dark Side Of The Moon…

  23. E.M.Smith says:

    @Jason Calley:

    So now you know why I carry diphenhydramine capsules with me at all times.

    1) Antihistamine. Most rapid absorption via powder under the tongue (open capsule, dump under tongue) you willth talkth funnfhty fortth a whilth as it does numb the tongue…

    2) Topical anesthetic. Consult tongue if in doubt…

    3) Dampens “Aspe Moments”…

    4) “Alcohol may intensify this effect” and verse visa ;-)

    As someone who must be about 3 or 4 times “Legal Limit” to even notice an “alcohol buzz” this matters to me… Yes, the current BAC law is horridly RACIST and SEXIST but it descriminates against men and whites in general and redheads in particular, so “that’s ok”…

    (Asian women have the lowest level of alcohol dehydrogenase, while men and whites have the highest, and that is “just a fact”.. Redheads are less suseptable to anesthesia (and alcohol is an anesthetic) but that is politically unacceptable so widely denied. Being a white male with the Redhead gene means I can drink just about anyone “under the table” but can also get a “DUI” when I’m at 0.08 BAC and more competant behind the wheel than anyone for 20 miles around. And that’s just the way it goes. Noone ever said Politically driven laws made sense… And yes, I actualy own my own BAC meter and I’ve done the series to match how I feel to BAC and, well, it was a bit astounding to me. I can’t even begin to feel alcohol when the meter is reporting me as “drunk”. At about 1.6 I’m “sort of feeling it a bit”. It’s where I feel more or less ‘normal’ and have left Aspe behind. But that starts to get into another topic… )

    At any rate, selected antihistamines mixed with alcohol mean you can get drunk and be more or less in line with the breathalizer for folks “like me”. (Allerest brand works well for me) So experimentation and testing with your own meter is to be encouraged…

    Were I ever offered a “refuge camp” option, I’d just walk on down the road…

    BTW, something I didn’t mention before:

    On the Out Of State TV the “Red Cross” was all over the place shilling for donations. Never saw a single Red Cross operation out here though…

    I’m sure they had some “show thing” somewhere, but they just were not a presence of any importance…

  24. P.G. Sharrow says:

    Interesting note about the Red Cross.

    I often see them shilling but rarely actually provide relief, mainly management of others efforts. pg

  25. vukcevic says:

    Super-moon may have some effect, however no major EQ as yet.

  26. E.M.Smith says:

    Looks to me like it’s “about the ordinary” so far. What I’ve noticed is:

    2011 March 19 09:56:51 UTC

    Earthquake Details
    This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.Magnitude 6.1
    Date-Time Saturday, March 19, 2011 at 09:56:51 UTC
    Saturday, March 19, 2011 at 06:56:51 PM at epicenter
    Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
    Location 36.810°N, 140.375°E
    Depth 24.9 km (15.5 miles)
    Distances 52 km (32 miles) NE of Utsunomiya, Honshu, Japan
    53 km (32 miles) WSW of Iwaki, Honshu, Japan
    56 km (34 miles) NNW of Mito, Honshu, Japan
    140 km (86 miles) NNE of TOKYO, Japan
    Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 13 km (8.1 miles); depth +/- 0.2 km (0.1 miles)
    Parameters NST=487, Nph=493, Dmin=197 km, Rmss=0.64 sec, Gp= 32°,
    M-type=centroid moment magnitude (Mw), Version=9
    Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
    Event ID usc00026q2

    2011 March 19 16:11:58 UTC

    This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.Magnitude 5.2
    Date-Time Saturday, March 19, 2011 at 16:11:58 UTC
    Sunday, March 20, 2011 at 02:11:58 AM at epicenter
    Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
    Location 6.092°S, 149.423°E
    Depth 58.1 km (36.1 miles)
    Distances 20 km (12 miles) NW of Kandrian, New Britain, PNG
    100 km (62 miles) SW of Kimbe, New Britain, PNG
    446 km (277 miles) NNE of PORT MORESBY, Papua New Guinea
    2400 km (1491 miles) N of BRISBANE, Queensland, Australia
    Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 17.6 km (10.9 miles); depth +/- 3.1 km (1.9 miles)
    Parameters NST= 77, Nph= 78, Dmin=369.6 km, Rmss=1.18 sec, Gp= 61°,
    M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=7
    Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
    Event ID usc00026xp

    FWIW, if the “trigger hypothesis” has legs, then I would expect to see more of the quakes triggering on the lead in to the Supermoon than on the exit; with very few ON the Supermoon date proper (only those exactly at the point which does not trigger earlier, but will at full stress – a much smaller population). So IMHO the “easy test” is to plot total quakes and total quake energy for 2 lunar cycles before and 2 after (or more) and see if there is an imbalance.

  27. vukcevic says:

    Hi E.M.
    I do a 24h daily count of EQs (M = > 4.5, Honshu aftershocks excluded) from 8am GMT. For the first 9h count is 6, previous 24h was 8, at this rate I could expect about 15. Time will tell. It is also equinox, when I am told the number should also be increasing, but all in all nothing exceptional. This is in line with the idea that the tectonic global energy is being all dissipated at a single location i.e. Honshu area, but that goes against the current understanding of tectonics.
    My chips are still on ‘blue’.

  28. Malaga View says:

    E.M. Smith
    So this whole thing just shouts at me that “It’s the phase (stupid)” and that a product of distance and lunar phase is the likely best indicator.

    Agreed… the phasing just shouts out… and it is shaming to science this is not mainstream. The activity patterns shout louder when the earthquake statistics are smoothed using a two day average… this needs to be done because the moon is analogue and does not recognise the arbitrary international dateline cut-off.

    There is also a lot more work that needs to be done on:

    Inclination The tidal effect should be stronger when the moon is higher in the sky.

    Focus The high tide bulge covers a limited area and moves around.

    There are also strong indications that the standard tidal theory is bogus… but getting this resolved in the mainstream will be difficult because other tidal theories involve things like magnetic forces… and this opens up Pandora’s box of the Electric Universe.

    At this stage my personal inclination is that the tidal effect is magnetic… or more specifically magnetic repulsion… where the earth repels the moon… and this repulsion response increases as the moon gets closer to the earth. The implication of this theory is that when the sun is magnetically quiet then the earth is able to focus additional force into repelling the moon… so there could be a mechanism that connects earthquakes with a quiet sun.

    I also suspect that the effects of the Moon are significantly under-rated… I agree that the moon can be seen as a trigger mechanism that releases pre-existing tectonic stresses… but I think it might be more.. a lot more. The Moon is relentless… and it has been for a very long time… the diurnal tidal bulges are also relentless… and over time these effects will generate weakness that could fracture at the next full moon [just like bending a bit of metal backwards and forwards until it finally breaks].

    If you want to dig a bit deeper have a look at the work of Miles Mathis at http://milesmathis.com/index.html

    He does a really great demolition job on many of the standard theories… and standard science… you might not agree with his own theories but that does really matter at the moment… the main bit is that so many of the standard theories just junk… and the real surprise it that the junk includes answers to childhood questions like: Why is the sky blue? Why does bath water spin anticlockwise down the drain?

    From what I can see his demolition jobs are causing havoc over at Wikipedia… standard science is going into hiding… it really is amazing… just as bogus as the standard AGW / CO2 science… and don’t be shy because the whole field is wide open for new ideas… I even have some myself… and I have plenty of dig here things to look at.

    One of my silly questions is regarding the speed of light… its not an easy thing to measure with a tape measure… but apparently there are techniques… and I will accept that… BUT I would like to know what light they measure? was it white light? did they also measure red light? did they also measure blue light? did they prove that red and blue light go at the same speed?

    Which brings me back to Blinded By The Light… wonderful song… wonderful memories…. thank you.

    Just back from a day at the beach… watched the full Moon rise over the sea… wonderful… just wonderful.

  29. P.G. Sharrow says:

    Malaga View; That standard Electric Universe theory is just as lame as the present standard machanical theory. Although we most definitely live in an electrical universe.

    You just spent the day at the beach and I spent the day in snow and rain in sunny California. Want to swap? ;-) pg

  30. Baa Humbug says:

    Hi E M

    Have you seen this?

    MUST SEE YOUTUBE: Jim Berkland: Geologist expects massive earthquake in Pacific NW – Mar 19-26 Top seismic window in years


    magnetism and fish kill theory is interesting


  31. Pingback: A Major Earthquake in North America Imminent | Sullivan's Travelers

  32. Jeff Alberts says:

    @Baa Humbug

    Has this guy predicted any other quakes besides the one in 1989? Did he predict any of the three recent ones in his “clockwise” graphic? How many misses versus hits?

  33. Baa Humbug says:

    Hi Jeff

    I couldn’t tell you mate. Regardless of his past predictions, he stuck his neck out with the dates being a few days away, so a watch and see situation only.

    I certainly wasn’t ‘endorsing’ anything he may have said.

    If, and it’s a big if, his prediction comes true in a few days, further research into his hypothesis may be warranted.

  34. Jeff Alberts says:

    Yeah. Normally I wouldn’t give a hoot about such a prediction, but I live about 70 miles north of Seattle… ;)

  35. vukcevic says:

    Super-moon effect at the moment exactly as predicted, fortunately no major EQs.

  36. E.M.Smith says:

    @Jeff Alberts:

    I think this is his site:


    He’s got a lot of predictions out there and claims some large number of hits.

    Realize he typically just predicts a ‘quake somewhere’ and a large window…

    So, hopefully you are a bit inland…

  37. Jeff Alberts says:

    Sounds like he throws a lot of stuff against the wall, and some of it sticks. Probably no better than chance…

    I’m at the eastern edge of the sound. Not worried about a tsunami, I’m at 220′ elevation and on the backside of Whidbey Island. But a really big quake would be bad news no matter what.

  38. vukcevic says:

    After reading your post, I googled ‘Whidbey Island, Washington, earthquake’
    it came up with:
    I hope it doesn’t happen, but it would be wise, if it is possible, to make some basic safety additions to your family bedrooms,

  39. Jeff Alberts says:

    I’m on North Whidbey, just northeast of the “r” in Oak Harbor: http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&ie=UTF8&ll=48.194472,-122.507172&spn=0.588624,1.012115&t=h&z=10

    I’ve procrastinated putting together a disaster kit, but we do have several gallons of water set aside, and a 10kw propane generator attached to the house ( http://whatcatastrophe.com/drupal/accidental_preparedness ) And I can see from my post I just linked to that I’ve been procrastinating for 2 years, at least…

  40. E.M.Smith says:

    @Jeff Alberts:


    Modular design. Start with the minimal and work your way up.

    Minimal is a fanny pack, so not very hard to do in one stop at the local camping store and about $50 bought at high end retail overpriced places.

    If you have “camping equipment” you likely have most of it already anyway and just need to “package it” where you can get to it when the house comes down. The garage corner near the main door is good as it often does not get crushed and the door usually “pops” so it’s easy to get… Under an outside awning is better and I move mine there when things are “nervous times”…


    Has a trivial to do food storage “system”. You can start by taking $200 to Walmart and buying a load of canned and dry goods. About 4 hours all told depending on how far away your Wallyworld is from civilization…

  41. E.M.Smith says:

    Picked up another one “near you” in BC:

    2011 March 20 04:20:39 UTC

    Earthquake Details
    This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.Magnitude 4.4
    Date-Time Sunday, March 20, 2011 at 04:20:39 UTC
    Saturday, March 19, 2011 at 09:20:39 PM at epicenter
    Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
    Location 49.910°N, 128.216°W
    Depth 9.9 km (6.2 miles)
    Distances 104 km (64 miles) SSW of Port Hardy, British Columbia, Canada
    213 km (132 miles) W of Campbell River, British Columbia, Canada
    375 km (233 miles) WNW of Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
    391 km (242 miles) WNW of VICTORIA, British Columbia, Canada
    Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 24 km (14.9 miles); depth +/- 0.4 km (0.2 miles)
    Parameters NST=202, Nph=214, Dmin=375.1 km, Rmss=1.32 sec, Gp=155°,
    M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=6
    Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
    Event ID usc00027bj

  42. vukcevic says:

    San Diego State University’s Immersive Visualization Center is staging five-day virtual exercise of a simulated earthquake followed by a tsunami. It includes participation from the U.S. European Command, National Institute of Urban Search and Rescue, Sahana Foundation and Humanity Road, along with vendors, application developers and other groups.
    The scenario is a simulated earthquake in the Balkans, followed by a tsunami in the Adriatic Sea that damages key resources and critical shoreline infrastructure in several countries.

    As it happens, I was born and grew up in the area, have many relatives and regularly go there for holydays. It is an earthquake zone, there was a severe quake in 1979

    More details of about the five-day virtual exercise at: https://sites.google.com/a/inrelief.org/24/home

  43. MichaelM says:

    ..preliminary report of a 7.0 in Myanmar this morning.

  44. George says:

    Something cool. Just watch


  45. E.M.Smith says:

    Just had a 3.7 north of Reno where there was an earlier 3.x … wonder if there’s anything volcanic near there…



    So, going to watch the old homeland be hit with virtual catastrophe?


    Yes, it is cool. Someone put the link up on another thread, maybe you? At any rate, it starts slow, then that “big one” tha is almost too big for the map… just ‘wow’…


    USGS has it at a 6.8 for now:

    Magnitude 6.8 – MYANMAR
    2011 March 24 13:55:12 UTC

    This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.Magnitude 6.8
    Date-Time Thursday, March 24, 2011 at 13:55:12 UTC
    Thursday, March 24, 2011 at 08:25:12 PM at epicenter
    Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
    Location 20.705°N, 99.949°E
    Depth 10 km (6.2 miles)
    Region MYANMAR
    Distances 89 km (55 miles) N of Chiang Rai, Thailand
    168 km (104 miles) SSW of Yunjinghong, Yunnan, China
    589 km (365 miles) NE of Rangoon, Myanmar
    772 km (479 miles) N of BANGKOK, Thailand
    Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 15.4 km (9.6 miles); depth +/- 5.8 km (3.6 miles)
    Parameters NST=109, Nph=109, Dmin=234.9 km, Rmss=0.88 sec, Gp= 36°,
    M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=C
    Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
    Event ID usc0002aes

  46. vukcevic says:

    My graph is showing surprising uniformity. It is far too early to make any assumptions, but at least it looks like as it is worth following up.
    I think both super-moon and spring equinox effects (only very minor) appear to be over. Time will tell.

  47. E.M.Smith says:


    IMHO, we get the “juice” in the approach to the extreme lunar position as things progressively become more strained. After the peak day, it all ought to be relaxation of the positions…

    But we’ll have to wait and see…

  48. Malaga View says:

    @ vukcevic
    My guess is there are a lot of threads we need to explore if we want to understand what is happening… perhaps one of these threads is the DLS – Double Lunar Swingby… I stumbled over DLS by accident and immediately thought of you…

    the Double Lunar Swingby orbit provides two launch opportunities per month and the use of high-inclination transfers permits two launch windows per day

    Click to access ASPapercosIOK.pdf

    Another of these threads is possibly the magnetotail… I have a note taken from Wikipedia that the moon is in the magnetotail for about six days per orbit… however, Wikipedia seems to have changed and is not so helpful now… which is a real “dig here” flag..

    A magnetic tail or magnetotail is formed by pressure from the solar wind on a planet’s magnetosphere. The magnetotail can extend great distances away from its originating planet. Earth’s magnetic tail extends at least 200 Earth radii in the anti-sunward direction well beyond the orbit of the Moon at about 60 Earth radii


    My guess is that Piers Corbyn has pulled many of these threads together into his Solar Lunar Action Period.

    Piers Corbyn’s TOP SLAP for around 10-12 July was verified in general terms by a number of very extreme events around the world (inc Ghana, Nepal, China, S Australia, S America & Pacific Typhoon) and both the explicit detailed forecasts for land events were verified – for
    USA/Canada and for Britain/Ireland NW Europe.

    Click to access WANews10No26.pdf

  49. vukcevic says:

    At the moment ‘all quiet’ both on the solar and eq front
    (possibly case of a damp oscillation ? )

  50. E.M.Smith says:


    Fascinating graphs…. could use a few more lables on things like “what line is what” for geomagnetic parameters…

    @Melaga View:

    Now you are just showing off!… (Double lunar backflip orbit indeed! ;-)

    FWIW, you can patent an orbit. So if you come up with an interesting one, file away!

  51. vukcevic says:

    Hi E.M.
    As the experiment is proceeding far better than expected, from 01/04/11 only two clearly marked geomagnetic values (now shown in green and orange colours) will be plotted, with the sources of the daily data identified.

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