OK, I was planning a much more serious posting about the impact of demographics on the world. One with lots of graphs of percentage of which peoples with what birth rates and that it’s literally “baked in the cake” once you get to about 15-20% of an ethnicity with a 2 x (or more) birth rate than the background. But just not getting around to it.
Then in a comment by R. de Haan here:
there was a link that lead to a link … so this story about Israel participation in CERN points to a larger issue
there was this link:
That led to the above picture.
It just kind of says it all…
Though as a comment:
This map has already become outdated a little bit: the Scandinavian country will no longer be called Sweden but the Polar Palestinian Authority (click). See also Goodbye Sweden. Thanks to Olda and Peter F. for the two videos.
Yes, it’s terribly politically incorrect to point out the truthes of demographics. But “The facts just are. -E.M.Smith” and the facts of demographics are “words filled with iron”.
So for all those “happy talk PC progressive places” where they bought into the notion of a “Population Bomb” and a need for serious birth control; they had a birth rate collapse. As a result of that, they have an aging population and a shortage of young workers to support their Progressive Welfare State. The answer? Why, Import Young Workers! But from where? Why, all the places that do not support the notion of population control as they are now “over crowded”… For Europe, that is the Islamic / Arabic world next door. For the USA it is Mexico.
Those folks in Europe, being “good Muslims”, will NOT be converting to Protestantism and becoming good Germans and Swedes and Frenchmen. They will stay Muslims. (The Koran specifies the death penalty if you try to convert away…). They will continue to speak Arabic. (The mullahs dictate that you can only really understand the Koran in Arabic, so you WILL learn it from your first breath. Other languages may be added, but Arabic will be foundational.)
OK, so maybe you can just “cap the growth” at the 20% level of “new workers”…
Except when one population is on the “less than full replacement rate” plan and the other is on the “Be fruity and multiply” plan with 4 to 8 kids each, guess what, your “doubling time” is 1 to 1/2 generation. That’s 30 to 15 years.
15 years: 40%
30 years: 80%
or on the slow plan:
30 years: 40%
60 years: 80%
As Sharia comes at 51%, you can expect “the vote” in about 21 to 45 years after the 20% level is reached.
It’s Just The Facts
Please realize, I would make the SAME CASE if it were “Good Catholics” like my ancestors who were coming in then having family sizes of 9 to 13 children (my Mother’s and Father’s family respectively) or if it were “White Protestant Colonialists” moving in to a place like the various African Colonies during the colonial era.
This is not about race, nor religion (other than to the extent some religion tells one group to have more kids), nor national origin. It is about the mathematics of demographics.
You can accept what they say, perhaps even find it “a good thing”.
( I make no value judgment here).
You can ignore it, but only for a while, then the consequences WILL happen.
(be they good or ill).
You can recognize it as real, then choose to decide NOW what you want your future to be.
(And choose any of several as you like it).
What you can’t do is ignore it, and have it go away…
So Saint Patrick’s Day is one of the biggest parties in America. Why?
My “Good Irish Catholic” ancestors.
Growing in popularity to the point of being a near match in California?
Cinco de Mayo parties.
Not to be heard from anywhere? Well, I’d say “Pilgrims” but we have a celebration of the mythical Thanksgiving Feast… except that came along AFTER the Pilgrims were all pretty much swamped and absorbed by the large influx of German (my other group of ancestors) and Swedish immigrants.
Thanksgiving in the United States was observed on various dates throughout history. The first Thanksgiving which was celebrated on a fixed day was in 1863, in an effort by President Abraham Lincoln to foster a sense of American unity between the Northern and Southern states. By the middle of the 20th century, the final Thursday in November had become the customary day of Thanksgiving in most U.S. states. It was not until December 26, 1941, however, that President Franklin D. Roosevelt, after pushing two years earlier to move the date earlier to give the country an economic boost, signed a bill into law with Congress, making Thanksgiving a national holiday and settling it to the fourth (but not final) Thursday in November.
Last time I looked, over 50% of the US Population has “some German ancestry” and then there is “Little Sweden” spread all over Minnesota and Wisconsin… For example this page shows a typical celebration:
For a while, those ethnicities dominated the “Heartland of America”.
But now we are, nationally, a much more Irish and Mexican place than a British Protestant one, and becoming more so each day.
(Sidebar on Italian: We also have a very large Italian Catholic population, with a similar story, and the “Italian Vote” is dramatically important in some states. Chicago, for example, has great Italian restaurants for a reason… Sidebar on Blacks: Some states, like Mississippi, have huge black populations. Many counties are substantially all black. Want good BBQ? Go where the blacks are… Want good jazz? Ditto. Repeat… )
Or take Louisiana:
What makes “N’Orleans” what it is? What gives the Cajun character to the foods, the atmosphere to the French Quarter cafes? About a 25% and shrinking French population. It doesn’t take much to make the character of a place, and it can just as easily be re-made. Was it better when it was more than 50% French Speakers? Will it be better when it is near zero in a few more decades? (Personally, I’d vote for the whole state just speaking French as I like the “variety”, but that’s just me…)
Again, I’m not passing judgement on the VALUE of the change, but pointing out the inevitability of it as things stand.
Personally, I love time in The French Quarter, even if it is much more of a tourist trap now than it was decades back. If you get off the beaten path, you can still find the French Heart of Louisiana… And Cinco de Mayo is a load of fun too. Always up for a bunch of happy folks looking to live a full life.
However that I must frequently struggle with the impact is not to be ignored. Over the last 40 years foods have gotten spicier and you now must often ASK ahead of time that no hot spices be put in. As more of the cooks are Mexican, more of the food is Mexican and with Mexican spices. At service counters, I now get to do the “language dance”. Is my Spanish better than their English? That was unheard of 30 years ago here. About 1/2 of my spouses “case load” is non-native speakers of English. So she gets “Special Ed kids” who often simply have language confusion as they only hear English in school.
There WILL be problems from this “Demographic Bomb” in Europe and there will be good things that come from it. Valuing those two is up to the locals there.
The only questions are:
Will the changes be worth it? and
Will you think about this before, or after, the changes?
If you don’t ask those questions, then you are just hoping things will turn out well. And: “Hope is not a strategy. -E.M.Smith”
For anyone wanting to make some kind of racist thing out of this, don’t bother. My extended family now includes Mexicans. I grew up with about 1/3 of my time spent in a Mexican home (my closest friend as a kid) and love the food and the people. I just think folks ought to think about what they want first, rather than bitch about it later. I’d rather we still had German spoken in Ohio and more French in Louisiana and have fewer Macdonald’s and Burger Kings… and don’t even get me started on Blacks and BBQ. God, I wish I had half that gift at turning lousy cuts of meat into something to die for… and, of course, exactly how rich has popularity made Oprah? ….
No, this is about looking into your future and simply asking “Is that what I want?”, as much so you can choose to have a Cinco de Mayo party; as you like it. Last week my clothes washer was repaired by two guys speaking Assyrian, though they called it Babylonian. I had a great time talking to them about the language and sharing a book I have with some similar script in it. It was a joy to be able to hear Babylonian spoken live. It’s much more pleasant a language than Arabic, less guttural. We have an Egyptian Coptic Church in town. I want to visit just to hear Coptic spoken. I love the “misto”. There is a Persian market a block away that I shop in, and a Moroccan restaurant with the best lamb around. But “That’s just me” and I can’t speak for others.
I’d also be just as bothered by a Church ringing church bells at 8 AM on Sunday as a Mosque shouting Arabic at me; both are “not welcome” in my ears that early in the day… To the extent that I have an “agenda” it is just that Muslims, once at 51%, start to erase the “misto” and go for mono-culture. (The Koran and Sharia tells them to; remember the Afghan Buddha?) Be sure that is where you want to go before you get there. Ask Lebanon about it…
Ignoring the facts won’t change the result.