First off, where or what is Tyler Texas?
It’s a modest sized town to the south east of Dallas an hour plus drive. I’m familiar with it as it is where my Uncle Ken lives. (Well, not IN Tyler, but close enough that it’s a nice little “puddle jumper” flight from Dallas to where he can come pick me up in his Cummins Diesel Pick-em-up Truck…)
Tyler has not changed a whole lot in the last 1/2 century (and not even THAT much in the last century). It’s growed a little. The airport turned from grass to concrete and now has some commercial jets. But mostly it’s still a sleepy college town with some agriculture around it and some decent restaurants for getting Bar B Que.
Even has a wiki page:
Now the fact that it is also the county seat of Smith County has NOTHING to do with my thinking it’s a fine place to live… nothing at all! ;-)
But the reason I picked Tyler all comes down to this map from GISS via GIStemp:
Notice that Texas is shown as being Very Red.
Here, let me give you a close up of it:
Notice that per the legend all of Texas is about 2 to 4 C over heated. That’s like 3.6 to 7.2 F Hot Hot HOT!
Now I’m not always the sharpest tool in the shed, but I figure that if it was that hot, folks would have notice and my Uncle Ken woulda said something, him being prone to talking about the weather and all, and he’s not said a thing about it being hot enough to scald a scorpion in Texas, so I figure either he has completely lost that Texas Gift for the Met-A-phore, or it just isn’t hot enough to really notice. And GIStemp is a-lyin’ to us agin…
So I set out t’ see what I could see…
First up, I checked in at Wunderground. Does it think things are “way hot” in Texas?
Well now, as I reads that, it looks to me like the tempur-A-ture line is stayin’ pretty much inside them average lines. It was a mite cold in the middle o’ winter when it colored outside the lines to the downside jus’ a bit, but nothin’ here is lookin’ A-Tall like it’s 4 to 7 degees hot.
Does Wolfram Alpha have a different idea?
Well, doesn’t look out’a line with the last ten years. Winters of 2010 and 2011 were a mite cold, but nothin’ spectacular to report.
Well, even the “All Data” graph just does not show a whole lota warming goin’ on… Basically all that trend comes out of that initial sample being a bit low and then a long gap. The recent data just doesn’t show things getting warmer.
Maybe we can look at some parts o’ Texas that have a mite longer record?
Well, looks like things are getting colder in Austin!
Guess all that UHI from the growth of the town and adding the tech center just didn’t add up to much!
Maybe some other Texas towns can be warming?
Well, that’s a tiny bit better. We’ve got 0.015 F / year or 1.5 F in 100 years. IFF the trend continued… but it sure looks to me like like that hot time in the 1940s is not much different from the hot time in the 1990s and maybe the “warming” is just a statistical ar-T-fact…
Maybe it’s all President Bush’s fault? He lives near Waco, did he do it?
Oh Hell, it’s dropping in Waco. Looks like the “Gore Effect” frosts anything Mr. Bush might be doing…
So What’s The Deal?
Well, we can tell GIStemp to “only” smear data around by 250 km instead of by 1200 km and get a bit of an idea. On this ‘lesser smeared’ map we can see that there is a tiny little hot area toward the South West of Texas. (Not surprising, really, as it has been in the news for being basically on fire for the last many months. No, not a met-e-phore, actually On Fire. As in uncontrolled scrub fires.)
So does anyone ELSE have a more precise record of the temperatures? From the same “pest management” site that we saw in this prior posting:
we have a nice little map that makes things MUCH clearer.
Now we can see that there IS a hot spot. Down in South West Texas. While the entire northern half of the country is freezing it’s butt off with below average “degree days” of heat accumulation, there is a “hot spot” in the low side of Texas (even accepting that this is based on valid data, which has some doubts about it given all the adjustments and such done to it…)
So now we can see what the net-net effect of GIStemp is, simply and clearly.
If finds a hot spot in a part of Texas, one that’s not a whole lot, just a touch warm, and turns that into a 4 to 7 F HOT HOT HOT over almost the entire USA, even though on a very fine grain look, the USA is cold in half, and a touch warm in half, and overall about normal.
Even though the individual stations in Texas don’t show a warming trend to speak of, and many of them even show significant cooling.
How does it do that?
Well, a good Magician never divulges the “Trick”…
Added “May to May” Wunderground history
Still staying inside the ‘normal lines’ pretty much.
Here is the “one year” chart from Wolframalpha showing that their data do include a March group:
And in response to a comment, here is Missoula Montana