Can I have my R-12 back now, please?
IMHO, the “Ozone Hole” has gone away. At best, it’s now a “chaotic density” pattern. More likely, it’s just packed up and left town. To me, the ozone pattern does not look at all like a diffuse atmospheric phenomenon from a set of ‘well mixed gasses’ and it looks a whole lot more like something being driven by external forces. UV from the sun, Birkeland Currents from the sun, perhaps even cosmic ray variations.
Why do I say this? Look at these two maps of the South Pole view of Ozone. First up is the 16th of May, then the 17th of May, 2011. In particular, notice that the “deviation” is, on average, about nil. There are a couple of spots a bit high, and a couple a bit low, net nil.
Second off, notice how rapidly the concentrations of Ozone change in the “hot spots” by the next day. The one near New Zealand is almost gone. Overnight. Things changing that fast are not due to a gas that takes 50 years to diffuse to the upper atmosphere. They are due to flux changes of some highly rapidly changing thing. “Southern Lights” particles from space. Birkeland currents. UV blocked by clouds. Whatever. But not a “well diffused gas” with a 50 years residency time…
Any other interesting graphs?
Here is the “May Mean” total ozone from the “climatology” (i.e. history) data:
Compare that to the Total Ozone graphs:
Other than being a bit more “mottled” (i.e. not smoothed by averaging together a whole lot of years), thing look just about “normal”.
But the thing that gets me is the gradient. Look at that “hot spot” on the 16th and the nearby “cool spots” off the end of Argentina and in Antarctica. From 250 to 400 range. It is realistic to attribute an almost 50% variation over that space to a “well diffused gas”? And while that N.Z. Hot Spot fades, the tiny ‘warm spot’ in the upper right grows. It gains a higher density gradient spot in the middle and spreads out.
This does not look at all like diffusion chemistry happening. It looks a great deal like “incident energy” happening.
Is it the North Pole?
As one would expect for May, moving closer to the Summer Solstice in about 5 weeks, there is more UV at the North Pole and so, the “normal” is for more Ozone:
Our present data look rather close to that normal, but with some “spots”:
Notice, again, just how fast the density in that “spot” over Canada changes in just one day. While it grows, the one over Siberia shrinks. Yet it was not by diffusion through the lower density between them…
This data is from the Canadian Ozone site of Environment Canada.
Here is a live map from that site:
This is a link to the site:
Just not looking like a whole lot of “hole” to me. I’ve saved a copy of what it looks like as I’m saying that here:
And for comparison, here is the current “live map” of “all ozone”:
Sidebar on Quakes
In the prior posting on ozone:
There was a curious coincidence of a ‘hot spot’ over Japan just about the time of their Great Quake. Might one presume that as things are looking particularly quiet now there ought not be much in the way of Great Quakes? I don’t know, but the quake map has been quiet the last couple of days. Lots of yellow, not so much blue, very little red… Here’s a global live map so we can watch a bit…
Original Image, with captions and description. The original is interactive with clickable regions for ‘close ups’.
IMHO, something interesting is happening to Ozone levels and it has a lot to do with the solar changes, very little to do with freon. The major effects look to be more in line with an electrical or charged particle driven activity and not at all in line with a diffused gas activity.