Memorial Day Snow Party?

Well, I’m still waiting for NASA to announce this is the “Hottest Year Ever”. They do it every year. Just a while back ( 2010 IIRC) they announced we were record hot in California (when it wasn’t at all as near as I could tell…)

Perhaps the fact that you can go skiing this Memorial Day Weekend in Tahoe is part of the problem…

There is a decent article on it here:

http://www.rgj.com/article/20110525/NEWS/105250395/2011-Memorial-Day-Tahoe-Shrinking-beaches-snow-covered-trails?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|FRONTPAGE

2011 Memorial Day in Tahoe: Shrinking beaches, snow-covered trails
5:16 AM, May. 26, 2011
Written by
Jeff DeLong

Memorial Day arrives at Lake Tahoe with snowbound high country, rising waters, shrinking beaches and rooms available.

What many consider the kickoff holiday to the summer season also arrives with dicey weather — with showers and breezy conditions possible for much of the weekend.

“It’s spring at Tahoe. Spring’s been a little bit of an illusion,” said Don Lane, a recreation specialist with the U.S. Forest Service’s Tahoe unit.

After a heavy winter layered the mountains in white, much of that snow remains, still 10 feet deep or more in places.

At Tahoe National Forest north of the lake, many trails normally passable this time of year might remain snowbound for several more weeks or months, officials said in a statement. The Granite Chief Wilderness and the Donner Summit area may be impassable “for the longest time in recent memory.”

“The high country is still hanging onto winter. There is still heavy snow cover,” Lane agreed.

If 10 feet of snow sounds more like winter than summer to you, then you don’t have what it takes to be a “climate scientist”… Also, note that impassable “for the longest time in recent memory”. Wonder how long it will take for cries of “anecdotal evidence!” to ring out. It being warmer than ever, this must be a “warm snow”…

In a sidebar they note:

Still in the mood for skiing?

Not a problem. Squaw Valley USA will be open throughout the weekend, 9 a.m. to 2 p.m. On Sunday, costumed skiers and riders will attempt to cross the frigid waters of “Lake Cushing.”
After an unprecedented 65 feet of snowfall over the winter, Kirkwood Mountain Resort will also open Saturday and Sunday, with three chairs operating from 8 a.m. to 2 p.m. Tickets are $35.

Well, “only” 65 feet of unprecedented snow… yup, certainly must be a very warm snow… /sarcoff>

You can watch the folks skiing there at the Kirkwood Webcam

Their snow report says:

“4-6″ Last Night!! Chairs 10 & 11 Open!”

So it’s Still Snowing up there…

Today’s Forecast

Scattered snow flurries. Partly sunny, with a high near 38. North northwest wind between 3 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Snow StatsLast 24 Hours 10-12″
Last 48 Hours 12″
Storm Total 6″
Last 7 Days 12-14″

Seasonal Total Range 735-748″
Base Depth 220-260″

So that’s a “base” of over 20 feet. About 6.6 meters of snow. With more coming down.

Welcome to “The Hottest California Ever!”… just don’t expect to be warm …

Driving and Camping will be a bit hard, though

http://www.sierrasun.com/article/20110527/NEWS/110529921/0/NEWS&parentprofile=

Snow blocks some access to Tahoe National Forest for Memorial weekend
Sun News Service

TRUCKEE/TAHOE — On the unofficial first weekend of summer, winter’s grasp on the Tahoe National Forest remains tight in some popular recreation areas, U.S. Forest Service officials said.
[...]
Sierra Buttes area — Sierra County: Open with some snow drifts. Packer Lake Road is not open to the lake or lodge due to snow.
[...]
Jackson Meadows Area — Sierra County: The Jackson Meadows Road is only open 6 miles to the Perazzo Meadows Road intersection. Snowmobiling continues along the road.
[...]
Interstate 80 — Nevada and Placer counties: The Pacific Crest Trail and other trails along the Sierra Crest are still very snowy. More than eight feet of snow was recorded in mid-May at Donner Summit. Campgrounds including Hampshire Rocks, Indian Springs, North Fork, Tunnel Mills and Onion Valley are all closed due to snow.

Rattlesnake Road is closed due to snow and a large slide and may not be open for a while. Loch Leven trails are very snowy.

Big Bend Visitor Center is not expected to open due to snow damage over the winter. A visitor information office is expected to be available later this summer at Big Bend.

Highway 20 — Nevada County: White Cloud Campground is open. The Pioneer Trail is open from Chalk Bluff to the west. The Burlington motorcycle trails are open from Chalk Bluff staging area to the west. Trails to the east are still blocked by snow. Rock Creek Nature Trail is open.

Bowman Lake Road has been plowed to the Fuller Lake dam.

For information, see the Tahoe National Forest website at www.fs.fed.us/r5/tahoe or call Tahoe National Forest Headquarters in Nevada City at (530) 265-4531.

Yup, that’s the “unofficial first weekend of summer” this year… Plenty of fun in the hills… as long as you bring your skis, snowmobile, or stay on the ploughed roads…

FWIW, last night it was in the 40′s F on my patio. Well below “tomato fruit set” temperature minimums. No tomato for that hamburger just yet… The good news is that the sky is clear and the sun is bright today, so it’s still a great day to be out and about. Though the chart from wunderground here:

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2011/05/25/high-today-if-you-can-call-it-that/

is showing it about 16 C or 60 F right now. Not exactly “summer-y”… but they are predicting a 67 F high for the day. At least, at the nice black tarmac covered airport… I’ll believe it when I feel it… I’ve added a close up on this week here:

San Jose California Airport weekly temperature graph from Wunderground

San Jose California Airport weekly temperature graph from Wunderground

FWIW, GIStemp is saying we are just a tiny bit cool right now. BUT they have Siberia just On Fire Burning Up Red HOT!!!

So maybe that’s where they will move the “Hottest year ever” narrative this year. This “Global Warming” stuff certainly isn’t very global…

NASA GISS April 2011 anomaly map using defaults

NASA GISS April 2011 anomaly map using defaults

So it looks to me like they will be averaging a bunch of non-existent Arctic and Siberian thermometers in with some real snow in California to find that the world is just burning up hot (as they have a 7+ anomaly where there is nothing and a -2 here in California where we have 45 year old cold matching and a lot of folks to observe it…)

I’m sure it’s all just a matter of “settled science”…

Oddly, these folks say that it’s MORE snow in Siberia that causes us to be cold. Maybe they need to tell Hansen…

http://minnesota.publicradio.org/collections/special/columns/updraft/archive/2011/01/cold_winter_blame_it_on_siberi.shtml

Cold Winter? Blame it on Siberian snow. (Next snow Monday?)

Posted at 5:43 PM on January 7, 2011 by Paul Huttner
[...]
Are you shivering this winter? Tired of shoveling snow? Stunned by “snowpacolyptic” video from the eastern USA & Europe this winter?

Blame it on Siberia. One researcher believes weather in Novosibirsk affects Northfield.

It’s an interesting (and emerging) scientific twist on what may trigger colder than average winters in the Northern Hemisphere. The theory is that extensive fall snow cover in Siberia favors colder winters in the much of USA & Europe.

Judah Cohen of Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. thinks he has found the link. His work appears in the Journal of Climate.

Here’s the write up from Science Central:

“If there was above normal snow cover in Siberia in October, there tended to be colder temperatures in the Eastern U.S. in the wintertime,” Cohen says.

While conventional models look to the oceans as controlling our weather with changes such as El Nino, Cohen says land features like the vast Siberian snow fields have a bigger impact on North American winters than previously thought. The increased cold and reflected heat of heavy autumn snows in Siberia affect a less well-known pattern called the Arctic Oscillation, the circulation of wind around the North Pole, which pushes high pressure and cold southward.

Cohen showed that his model outperforms today’s commonly-used forecast models in predicting forecasts for the last 35 years of weather. But he says actual predictions are what make or break a model–or a reputation.

They link to this page:

http://www.sciencentral.com/articles/view.php3?article_id=218392993&cat=2_7

That looks to have the sciency bit in it ;-)

While conventional models look to the oceans as controlling our weather with changes such as El Nino, Cohen says land features like the vast Siberian snow fields have a bigger impact on North American winters than previously thought. The increased cold and reflected heat of heavy autumn snows in Siberia affect a less well-known pattern called the Arctic Oscillation, the circulation of wind around the North Pole, which pushes high pressure and cold southward.
Cohen showed that his model outperforms today’s commonly-used forecast models in predicting forecasts for the last 35 years of weather. But he says actual predictions are what make or break a model–or a reputation.

Yup, somewhere there is a disconnect between that big red Siberian heat wave blob of Hansen and the “increased cold..of heavy autumn snows in Siberia” of the real world…

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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25 Responses to Memorial Day Snow Party?

  1. George says:

    The “weather thingy” on my desk is calling for chance of rain here again Tuesday and Wednesday which will mean yet more snow for the sierras unless it really warms up and falls as rain.

    It just isn’t letting up. I wonder if they didn’t plow SR 120 through Yosemite if it would ever melt all the way down to pavement this year.

  2. R. de Haan says:

    Great article.

    In the mean time WUWT reports: It’s all over, Kyoto Protocol losing four big nations
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/05/29/its-all-over-kyoto-protocol-loses-four-big-nations/

    The emperor was without clothes for a long time and now his ass is freezing off.

  3. Pingback: Growing Your Own Veggies « Things I Find Interesting

  4. boballab says:

    EM:

    While you have been getting the bad side of La Nina, I seem to have lucked out. The temps this past week have been in the mid to low 80′s for the highs and in the 60′s for the lows. It is also suppose to continue in the same vein for the next couple of weeks except for a few days in the 70′s:
    http://www.accuweather.com/us/md/berlin/21811/forecast-details.asp?fday=1

    Also while everyone else is either experiencing flooding from rains or having twisters and big thunderstorms the weather has passed me by. You can get an idea of how good it has been by looking at the pics of the garden and panter boxes here:
    http://boballab.wordpress.com/2011/05/29/growing-your-own-veggies/

  5. R. Shearer says:

    I had to wear a long pants, sleeves and a sweater to our annual block party last night here in the Front Range of Colorado. People were huddled around the propane heaters. The AGW message does ring true when it’s still cold at the end of May.

    I finally got a good Spring day of skiing at A-Basin this week, it was nice! They still have a base of over 90″ which is phenominal for any time here.

  6. Interesting Connections says:

    A neat little attachment for your CZ-75 or P01:

    http://www.midwayusa.com/viewProduct/?productNumber=228932

    Just the thing to cut through all that Memorial Day snow.

  7. Sera says:

    Lift tickets $35- what a deal! They were $75 at Snowshoe last year.

    Here’s a theory: The russians are trying to bankrupt us (like we did to them with Star Wars or something) by faking high temps in Siberia. “Yeah, you guys need to spend all your money on windmills and stuff.”

    @IC: Actually, he needs one of these…

    http://e-sarcoinc.com/451911barrelroto5wcompensator.aspx

  8. E.M.Smith says:

    @Boballab:

    Nice garden… I envey your greenhouse ;-)

    @R. de Haan:

    So what’s a little snow storm and “whiteout conditions” on the first official day of summer BBQ season ;-)

    @Interesting Connections:

    I’m not sure what a “tactical block” is, but the bayonet I understand… but why put a bayonet on a pistol? I’d rather have one on the belt for off hand…

    But all I really need is one of these:

    http://www.defensereview.com/defrev-exclusive-kac-introduces-6mm-pdw-for-special-operations-applications/

    Just a dinky little 6mm. Just 2/3 of a 9mm. No need for anything flashy or oversized…

    @Sera:

    I don’t need no stinking compensator! I do pushups for a week before I shoot my .45 then it’s not a problem ;-)

    On that Russian deal, you may be on to something. I think they were getting paid by the EU for Climate Sin Indulgences, so the more “Sin” in the world, the more they would expect to get paid.

    I could easily see a few rubles changing hands to get some warmer data on demand…

    @R. Shearer:

    Now if only I could find a market for Wool Futures ;-)

  9. Chuckles says:

    It’s a good thing it’s the ‘hottest year ever’, imagine how cold you’d be if it wasn’t?

  10. Joel Heinrich says:

    The most interesting thing on the GISS map is that the North Pole the upper line is at the same time some 4-7°C too warm and 2-4°C too cold. Are they ever going to change to a equal area projection? like the German DWD:

    http://img135.imageshack.us/img135/3923/imagedeliveryimgtemplat.png

    As for April, California may have been too cold, but here in Germany it was 4-5°C warmer than “normal”. Yes, it was a really nice spring here.

  11. Sera says:

    “Russia delayed its decision to ratify the Protocol for several years.
    Knowing that the Protocol’s entry into force hinged solely on own action,
    Russia demanded side-payments, particularly from the EU. But this
    process has also brought Russia and the EU closer together in climate
    policy and Russia now has deeper common interests with the EU in
    future negotiations than it has had before.”

    http://www.fni.no/doc&pdf/FNI-R0605.pdf

    And if your eyesite is as bad as mine…

    http://e-sarcoinc.com/451911barrel16roto.aspx

    BTW- My ‘Super’ arrives tuesday (tomorrow).

    Happy Memorial Day, people!

  12. a williamson says:

    G’Day Chiefio,
    Wool Futures are easy to find, try the ASX.

    http://www.asx.com.au/products/delayed-asxwool-prices.htm

    Wool has rallied from about $9.50/kg clean to around $14/kg clean in the last 12 monthes, so the market (mostly China) is well ahead of your analysis. The wool market indicactor quotes are in clean cents/kg, however wool is usually sold at auction uncleaned ie including grease (lanoline) and dust and vegetable matter (grass seeds etc).

    Australia has historically produced 80% of the worlds apparell wool with New Zealand and South Africa the next biggest producers. China dominates the wool market both in purchases of greasy wool and in sales of finished product. India is increasing its wool purchases dramatically as well.
    The wool industry has been tough to be in since 1990 when the scheme to control wool prices collapsed. The wool reserve price scheme set a minimum (reserve) price ,with a government backed body buying any wool that didn’t reach the reserve price at market. The government stopped the guarantee and prices fell, with wool growers subsequently having to compete against the mountain of wool that the scheme had purchased at reserve prices that were in retrospect too high.

    This lead to a lot wool producers leaving the industry and turning to 100% grain production.
    Those who remain in the industry are now more efficient and dedicated to what they produce and the result has been finer micron wool and a better product. Coarse itchy jumpers/jerseys/pullovers are a thing of the past.

    High oil prices and very high cotton prices have a very positive effect on wool prices.

  13. Richard Ilfeld says:

    ” One researcher believes weather in Novosibirsk affects Northfield. ”
    Lost touch with reality years ago. Even though they have an outdoor ice rink whose season has lengthened, there’s no need for reality in Northfield — dissapointed & not proud alumnus, Carleton (67).

  14. Richard Ilfeld says:

    I can spell – it’s a pun

  15. Ldlas says:

    Have you ever tied to find the CO2 signature in the US-temperatures?

    In many states of the US there has been no warming since the beginning of the last century or since the nineteen thirties.
    In other states there occures a jump in a normal course of temperatures after which there has been no more warming.
    In the West, North West and West North Central this happened in the year 1986. In the South West in 1994.
    In the North East and East North Central this was in 1998.

    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/cag3.html

  16. Jeff Alberts says:

    I’m having a Memorial Day overcast-and-drizzly party. Thanks to global warming, we’ve had cool summers for a couple years now.

  17. Jeff Alberts says:

    Doh, should have been “we’ve had cool summers…”

  18. E.M.Smith says:

    @Ldlas:

    I’ve got a whole series on temperature curves. See the dT/dt and related topics on the right margin. Bottom line: Different places go in different directions (warming / cooling) and a given place has some MONTHS warming and some cooling… and places riight next to each other move in opposite directions… There is no CO2 signature…

    @Jeff Alberts:

    Expect more of the same for the next 30 years…

    @a williamson:

    It had a smiley… not exactly an “analysis”… but thanks for the “wooly insight” anyway ;-)

    @Sera:

    For “no eyeglasses” moments I rather prefere a short bbl 12 ga pump with extended magazine… (I put a rifled hunting bbl on my riot gun, so it’s about 8 shots of 00 Buck that is spinning as it leaves a 24 inch bbl – with rifle sights. The ‘dispersion’ is rather good even at closer ranges and the volume of shot down range per unit time is awsome. It doesn’t need much to hit something with that set up, and even if you don’t hit something, it will scare anything with a brain out of the room…)

    8 x 8 = 64 pelets ‘down range’ fast.

    For a “fun time” look at what happens with #4 shot or “turkey loads”…

    Personally, I think the idea of using rifling to cause shot dispersion is kind of neat… and you can shove a slug round in the bottom any time you want a careful aimed shot…. But at anything “inside the room” range you still don’t get all that much dispersal… but then you wouldn’t need more than a 5 in bbl on your .45 then either ;-)

    @Joe Heinrich:

    They have a polar projection as an optional drop down. I don’t use it when I put up one of their “looks like this now” maps just because I’m trying to stay as close to their selected defaults as possilble. That projection is what folks get unless they “go fish”…

  19. George says:

    Just heard a weather forecast calling for over an inch of rain this weekend in the SF Bay area. That will add another foot of snow to the Sierra snowpack.

  20. Another Ian says:

    Hottest year ever coming up maybe in the GISSTaken world, but in our part of the southern hemisphere

    This is the first time in the about 10 years that we have owned our dozer that, of a morning, I have to let it warm the transmission oil up before the power shift will work!

  21. E.M.Smith says:

    @George:

    It is now raining in Oakland and the radar shows the storm is still significantly off the coast and heading in.

    I’ve had the first “sprinkles” in my yard.

    Yup, “summer” it aint.

    (For those who would cite various definitions of “summer” there are many to choose from. June July August are usually “summery” here…)

    @Another Ian:

    It is becoming every harder to call it “Global Warming”. A night or two ago on PBS (Public Broadcasting) they had an interview with the guy who runs Wunderground and a Ms. Hayhoe who both advocated for the “weather extremes” meme and both of them AND the interviewer NEVER used the phrase “global warming” only “climate change” and “extreme”.

    So they are going to try pitching ANY change as due to CO2….

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/20/idUS225230440820110520

    Is Extreme Weather the New Normal?
    By Deborah Zabarenko

    Fri May 20, 2011 2:20am EDT

    by Deborah Zabarenko

    Heavy rains, deep snowfalls, monster floods and killing droughts are signs of a “new normal” of extreme U.S. weather events fueled by climate change, scientists and government planners said on Wednesday.

    “It’s a new normal and I really do think that global weirding is the best way to describe what we’re seeing,” climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe of Texas Tech University told reporters.

    “We are used to certain conditions and there’s a lot going on these days that is not what we’re used to, that is outside our current frame of reference,” Hayhoe said on a conference call with other experts, organized by the non-profit Union of Concerned Scientists.

    An upsurge in heavy rainstorms in the United States has coincided with prolonged drought, sometimes in the same location, she said, noting that west Texas has seen a record-length dry period over the last five years, even as there have been two 100-year rain events.

    Hayhoe, other scientists, civic planners and a manager at the giant Swiss Re reinsurance firm all cited human-caused climate change as an factor pushing this shift toward more extreme weather.

    While none would blame climate change for any specific weather event, Hayhoe said a background of climate change had an impact on every rainstorm, heat wave or cold snap.

    “What we’re seeing is the new normal is constantly evolving,” said Nikhil da Victoria Lobo of Swiss Re’s Global Partnerships team. “Globally what we’re seeing is more volatility … there’s certainly a lot more integrated risk exposure.”

    So Sharpen Your Pitchforks accordingly…

    They are trying to define “normal” as ” what we’re used to” (i.e. the last 30 years of the hot PDO half cycle) and everything else as “human caused”.

    Talk about your nearsighted lack of historical perspective.

    Best approach I can see is to just keep sticking it in their faces that “this has happened before” with historical references AND always use the phrase “Global Warming”. They built that brand, now it’s our turn to use it to good effect.

    “So the cold is because it’s hot due to Global Warming?”…

    IMHO, we’re entereing “end stage” and the public is about to “move on” to other things as the whole issue just fades under a load of cold and snow. But it will take a decade and a lot can happen in that time…

  22. Another Ian says:

    E>M> This is re-posted from comments at

    http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/05/31/canberra-has-not-warmed-over-the-last-100-years/

    ” Steve, I dobbed you – see

    http://blogs.news.com.au/couriermail/andrewbolt/index.php/couriermail/comments/gillard_feels_a_chill/#commentsmore

    And, among the comments, you might like the list at

    “CraigR replied to Maggie the global warming guru Thatcher
    Wed 01 Jun 11 (11:45am)
    The theory is every changing with what-ever the climatic weather we have or whether we have any climatic weather or not is the climatic weather we do or not will be the climatic weather man causes.
    So the climatic weather we have or not is the “Anthropogenic Climate Change “theory we have.

    If a slight warming is occurring it does not prove causation, however a cooling disproves the theory that man’s CO2 is the cause of a warming ….a large portion of AGW advocates claim that it’s all ways up, up and away. You simple can’t continually change the ‘Theory” to suit the circumstances otherwise it’s a self falsifying theory.

    anti-AGW crown constantly misrepresent what AGW is?

    Misrepresent ???? who’s doing that….. the constant relabeling over the years is amazing …..

    Global cooling (GC)
    Global dimming (GD)
    Global warming (GW)
    Man-made global warming (MGW)
    Anthropogenic global warming (AGW)
    Dangerous global warming (DGW)
    Greenhouse effect (GE)
    Human induced climate change (HICC)
    Human caused climate change (HCCC)
    Runaway greenhouse effect (RGE)
    Climate change (CC)
    Global Climate change (GCC)
    Climatic Destabilization (CD)
    Dangerous climate change (DCC)
    Abrupt climate change (ACC)
    Anthropogenic climate change (ACC)
    Catastrophic climate change (CCC)
    Catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW)
    Global heating (GH)
    Climate crisis (CC)
    Climate destabilization (CD)
    Global wierding (GW)
    Climate chaos (CC)
    Inadvertent climate modification (ICM)
    Climate challenge (CC)
    Climate disruption (CD)
    Global climate disruption (GCD) “

  23. steven says:

    for the latest info on the road to jackson meadows like http://www.facebook.com/#!/jacksonmeadowscampstore on facebook updated info and pics.

  24. E.M.Smith says:

    @Another Ian:

    Nice list… Now you just need to keep adding the Nom-du-jour each day as it changes ;-)

    @Steven:

    Nice snowy pictures ;-)

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