GLD Gold, An Interesting Chart

I find this an interesting chart for Gold.

Every so often, you find a chart the ‘speaks to you’ about a particular ticker. For some reason or other, it is ‘in touch’ with whatever is driving that particular market over this set of times.

For whatever reason, this one “speaks to me” about Gold.

Usually, when trading gold, I use a very “fast chart”. This decision was made as Gold can be a very Fast Market. Sometimes it will open “gap down” or “gap up” by all of the prior week’s movement. It can drive you slightly nutty. (Since the Gold Fix is in London, they get the first bite at the apple and we get a “gap open”…)

For no good reason, other than trying out some different chart settings and a ‘broad sweep’ set of comparison tickers, I took a look at GLD on a 5 year weekly tick mark chart with an “unusual” setting for the SMA Stack. 24 / 48 weeks. That makes the first line a 120 day SMA and the second one a 240 day (using a 5 day trading week).

GLD 5yr W vs FXF US Market, Oil, Copper, TLT

GLD 5yr W vs FXF US Market, Oil, Copper, TLT

Yes, this is what I do on rainy days once my “bets” are placed. Having two major ones just placed Very Well last week, I’m not touching them until it’s time to take them off. So I have to watch, but can’t do anything… So I poke around looking for new ideas while trying not to be bored while trading. (Yes, believe it or not, boredom is one of the largest hazards of being a trader…)

So, take a look. You can clearly see the “pivot point” for Gold when it started pulling away from the other assets. But what is most enlightening is the “periodicity” with which gold has a ‘correction’ and the precision of the depth. At this “time scale” it is very clear what is happening with the gold market right now. It’s just a “regular shake out” of weak hands so the market maker can reload with inventory…

While we are getting a “bit late” in the run, and eventually there will be a “failure to advance” and the Gold Bull Market will tarnish… For now, the “rules” say: Bull Market in progress. “Steady Up” until a confirmed failure to advance is to be assumed. “Buy the dips”. And in this case, a “dip” is clearly defined as “on the 24 week SMA line”.

To me, that looks like “about 2 or 3 weeks” from now. With that in mind, you could move to a “1 year daily” chart for exact timing.

Also not the metronome like movements of RSI from 50 to 80; that MACD gives decent “exit calls” (though using Slow Stochastic – not on this chart – to set stop loss orders looks like a workable strategy too, and confirms the entry call); and note that DMI tells you a clear Bull Market Status. It is a slow indicator, so when “failure to advance” happens you will only get an inflection down in ADX / DMI+ a week or two late, but it “provides confirmation” of the other information.

Other Tickers

Note, too that FXF, the Swiss Franc, has a “pivot” about a year back. It would be interesting to find out what was in the news when both gold and FXF made their “pivot” movements… But, at any rate, the Swissy is clearly lagging gold into this bull run. As the Swiss are generally good about their money, I would interpret that as either gold being overpriced, or the Swiss Franc under priced. I would not be at all surprised to see FXF approximate with gold again in the future.

Oil is interesting in that, for all the talk of how much prices have risen, you can see that the “jump” at the left/middle of the graph (when it hit about $120 / bbl IIRC) has never been reached again and it is largely a “dead money” long term vehicle. Good for “swing trades” but not so good for long term gains. Similarly, TLT, the 20 year treasury fund, is a good “counterweight” to the stock market (jumping up when the market crashes) but otherwise is mostly “dead money” for trades.

JJC, Copper, only starts to trade in the final months of 2007, so you can’t see what it does at the top of the last market run. You can see it, though, at the bottom of the crash. It turns up well before the market bottom. Copper calls a market bottom turn as an advance indicator. (I think it will be a lagging indicator at crash-tops, but that needs confirmation).

The only other thing to really note about this chart is how all of the various stock market indexes largely track together.

As a side bar, EWL, the Swiss Stock Fund, is trading rather well compared to the US market. Getting a bit of “lift” from the currency, I suspect.

Here is a live version of the above chart (with EWL added and Slow Stochastic for comparison), and just below it, a close up on the Swiss fund where you can see it’s been “market perform” this last year, and is now breaking down:

GLD Gold fund, vs EWL, US Stocks, Copper, Oil, and TLT 20 year Treasuries

GLD Gold fund, vs EWL, US Stocks, Copper, Oil, and TLT 20 year Treasuries

The EWL fund:

EWL - Swiss Fund, vs US Markets, Oil, Gold, Copper, and TLT 20 year Treasuries

EWL - Swiss Fund, vs US Markets, Oil, Gold, Copper, and TLT 20 year Treasuries

So EWL got a bit of a ‘lift’ during the US Market Crash (or put another way, never crashed as hard or far) and has long term been the better bet, but has not been a better gainer recently, as the US markets had more “aw shit” they could “make up”. A good example of “time scales”. EWL outperformed, but only on a longer time scale and with an event that has passed… From here, going forward, that currency “lift” will turn into headwinds on selling goods overseas – think chocolates, watches, and drugs. And Right Now it’s taking a header. DMI is “red on top” and MACD is “red on top”, below zero, and “Mouth down”. Even RSI has been “near 80” and is now “broken through 50”.

But worth remembering for “next time”. When things have a “toppy” look, move some money to Swiss goods…

In Conclusion

It looks to me like having a “long view” chart up on GLD provides a needed “context” for comfort in the faster trade cycle up close. Why? “Why? Don’t ask why, down that path lies insanity and ruin. -E.M.Smith”…

Exploring why: I suspect there is some international banking group that makes decisions on something or other about then, but it could just as easily be some major banks that trade gold needing to “reload” their inventory… It looks like it’s about every January and July, so it could also be seasonal (Christmas) demand and / or related to when mines are not flooded… If you really care “why”: Happy Digging…

So for me, when trading GLD, I’m going to have both that long term chart AND my faster “trade chart” open. The better to know when the wind is at my back… Say, just after the 4th of July?

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
This entry was posted in Economics - Trading - and Money and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

19 Responses to GLD Gold, An Interesting Chart

  1. Scarlet Pumpernickel says:

    I think maybe the blow out on gold could be coming soon, we saw it on silver. But Gold maybe this Greece thing will make it spike and then it’s over?

  2. E.M.Smith says:

    The spouse has pointed out the “June Graduations and Weddings” effect…

    What schedule do schools run in Australia / New Zealand? Is it still “June Graduation” (in winter…) or do you swap for “Spring Graduation”…? (Not that Aus / N.Z. are big enough to wobble gold demand globally, just curious).

    @Scarlet Pumpernickel:

    At present, the “long duration chart” of a 5 year weekly shows no let up in “trend”. The basic rule is “A trend in motion tends to remain in motion until obviously broken”. It ain’t broke yet.

    Anything beyond that is “Speculating on The Story”… And while great fun, does not give tradable insight. ( I know as I’ve tried for over 40 years to make “storys” tradable…)

    So, when does this bull run end? I’d give it at least until we know if the US Dollar is going to be subjected to a few more $TRILLION of “Budget Agreement” printing…

    IMHO, Greece will do “Austerity” (then choose to leave the Euro AFTER all the riots get too intense and / or an election happens). That will coincide with the “dip” in gold from the cyclicality seen above.

    THEN the US “Budget Deal” will be announced with about $2.5 T of “cuts” (spread over 10-15 years that will never actually happen) and an added $1.99 T of “New Debt Limit” (that MAY get us throgh to the election).

    Gold ought to rise on that until after the election. IFF Obama gets reelected, gold keeps running (with the observed tradable wobbles). IFF a Republicrat gets elected, same deal, but lower slope. IFF a Tea Party Hostage gets elected, AND cuts spending / debt, gold flattens and runs back down SOME, not a lot. Central banks are moving to gold in larger amounts as BOTH the USD and EURO are “dodgy” for “central bank reserves”. Until they are proven “stable and sound” again, trend continues. Demand continues. (See Russia, for example. They have stopped buying US Treasuries. Why mine gold and trade for rubber ruler if you can mine gold and put in vault?)

    I give it until about 2014 for central banks / countries to change there minds and THEN only if the Euro Zone AND US Government suddenly Get Religion.

    I’m not holding my breath…

    BUT: The charts are the guide. They tell you what the world is doing, collectively. Even the parts that are in no news papers, no reports, no intelligence at all. The Bedouin sitting on some gold nuggets instead of Euros, the drug dealer buying “black market Columbian Gold” instead of laundering his Dollars to a Burmuda Bank Account. It all shows up in the charts…

    AND right now the charts are saying that “Gold Rises – with a 2 x yearly buyable / tradeable ‘dip’ in about January end and July start”. True until the trend breaks below the SMA stack and stays there.

  3. boballab says:

    EM:

    I don’t now if you realized it yet but the top panel in your top graph but the month and year that the Gold started that rise was Nov 2008. Geez what happened in that month and year?

  4. E.M.Smith says:

    @Boballab:

    November…. something about November…. 2008… years that have the last part a multiple of 4…. Even numbers. 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012….

    Sorry, it’s just not coming to me… All I get is a picture of “Double Sevens” Crap Dice…

    November…. Hmmm…..

    ;-)

    “good catch”…

  5. boballab says:

    EM:

    Quick notify the WH, here is some “good” economic news they can attribute to the president. :)

  6. JRadig says:

    I really appreciate your commentary on the markets and willingness to share your knowledge about interpreting the charts. Changing the time-scale and the moving average indicators is pretty important to this post. Maybe you could expound on what you use, when, and why for 1 or both of those metrics sometime. Or point us to a prior post if you’ve done it already. I can’t seem to find time to go back and look at them all.

  7. How big an effect do we see from the wedding season in India, and its associated need for gold?

  8. E.M.Smith says:

    @JRadig:

    You are most welcome. Just glad someone appreciates it…

    Which “time scale” to use, and what value to set on the SMA stack is more art than science. Basicaly, “use what works”.

    So how do you decide what works? You look at a chart and see if the values from the first half of the chart had “predictive value” for the last half (more or less).

    So, for example, Oil has an “inventory report” every Wednesday. You can pretty well guess that a “time scope” of 2 weeks (that captures two Wed reports) would be a good way to “day trade” oil.

    Earnings are announce once a quarter (and options have an expiration every 3rd Thursday, but a common expiration of options, futures, and “other stuff” once a quarter) so a time scope that captures two quarterly cycles, or 6 months, is really useful for those. (Why not one? Because then any ‘1 cycle swing’ will be seen as a ‘trend’ instead of a ‘cycle’… In fact, this is so important that most of the time I use a 1 YEAR chart to assure it’s captured.)

    Many things happen one time a year. Annual reports. Index fund rebalancing. Harvest. So for most things, when in doubt, I use a 1 year chart.

    Finally, the business cycle runs about 10 years. For very long term context, I like to use a 10 year (or some times a 5 year if I want to see it a bit more detailed) chart with weekly tick marks on it.

    So pick a ticker. Look at the 10 day / hourly, 6 mos / daily, 1 year / daily, and 10 year / weekly charts. What “speaks to you”? Where is there a repeatable pattern that gives predictive value? Sometimes I use a 2 or even a 3 year / daily if there is some “longer than a year” event evidenced.

    Until now, I’d been fixated on trying to trade gold FASTER with ever shorter charts, to try and figure out just why some times I’d wake up and be “gap down $50” at the open. Hoping to see some glimmer of movement in the day or two leading up to it. Very little “worked” from that. Yes, a 10 D /H chart would “trade well’ most of the time for swing trades. But then I’d get a surprise trend “WHACK”… Gap down, $100… Wha?…

    So playing around with the Time Scope, I noticed that the pattern was much more “readable” on a 5 year weekly chart. THAT was when I had the Ah Hah moment and realized the Christmas Sales maybe mattered a whole lot more than I’d thought. (The spouse focused me on the June Graduations / Weddings driver too. It was those summer Up / Whack patterns that I’d missed, the Christmas Rush I’d figured out.)

    OK, with THAT insight from this chart in hand, I can now realize I need to pay attention to the “more than 2 years” scale to see those events coming.

    To be “out of gold” before June ends or before January comes. To avoid those “Gap Down Opens” by not being around during those months at all…

    THEN to start watching for the following “buy point”.

    This also then leads to the understanding that there is a Secular Trend. (That long term run up from the start of the Obamanation to now) with a Seasonal Ripple on it (with TWO peaks per year, more or less) and with a periodic Correction of relatively short duration between those two. So I have three “phases” of Gold I can now trade with some expectation of validity.

    1) Identify the secular trend. (It won’t ALWAYS be up… for years central banks were dumping gold driving it down to $250 / ounce.) Trade mostly with that trend, whatever it is.

    2) Catch the seasonal run up (even if it is just back to a falling trend line if some day gold starts running down again).

    3) Avoid or short the “correction” after that seasonal run.

    So in this case, I’d had the wrong “time scope” on gold, as I’d not thought about it as a long term secular trade, rather as a “gold fix in London, fast emotional news driven, weekly” trade. So in this article, you get to see how I did that discovery of my ‘error’ and how I’m fixing it.

    SMA Stack:

    The short form is just:

    “look for where the lines seem to fit the pattern reliably”.

    Wish there was more to it than that, but there isn’t, really.

    For some things, there are numbers a lot of folks commonly use. As they commonly use them, they are more likely to be usable by me.

    Why those numbers? “Why? Don’t ask why. Down that path lies insanity and ruin. -E.M.Smith”…. somewhere, someday, someone liked them. Now a lot of folks use them so they have become a bit of a self fulfiling prophecy.

    50 day. 200 day.

    They just are.

    So I started using mostly a 50 day for trading, 200 day for investing. Gradually I moved to a ‘3 line’ SMA Stack as I find it “talks to me more” to watch the lines “roll over”. To watch the fast line twitch and the slower lines reminding me to stay the course until a rollover is done. I’ve tried 2 lines. It works about as well.

    I then played with the days and found I liked using 25, 50, 75. ( I really wanted 25, 50, 200 but Bigcharts doesn’t let you do that…)

    For “weekly” charts, with a 5 day week, 200 days is 40 weeks. So I typically use a 20 tick 3 SMA to get 20, 40, and 60 weeks, or 100, 200, 300 day SMA Stack. The 300 isn’t really needed (nor, classically, is the 100). Some folks use a 150 day, so a 30 (or a 15, 30, 45 SMA-3 stack) would also work for some slow things, like the long term bull vs bear market “call”.

    To some extent it depends on what all the OTHER folks trading that ticker have decided to use…

    Now, what surprised me here was just how well the 24 WEEK SMA line was touched by GLD when it “dipped”. I was using my “day” scale SMA number (just one day faster than 25, 50, 75 SMA to get a reaction just a bit faster than the other guy ;-) or let me forget to check one day and not be too bad off…) and getting a better “fit” than with a 20 week number. Hmmmm…. 24 weeks x 5 days = 120 days. (Probably a 150 day would also be close to a touch of the bottom of the ‘dip’ but I kind of like having a bit of price tick below the line… it wakes me up better ;-)

    One could also use a 12, 24, 36 SMA-3 and get the same effect. The 12 line following price in it’s rise / fall (and to some extent the price crossing of 12 saying “you are getting out late” after a top…) and the 24 being just on the “dip” with the 36 “showing trend long term”. Would 10, or 15 or even a 8, 16, 24 work better? It depends on what “speaks to you” and how you want to use the lines.

    An 8, 16, 24 would likely let me use the 8 line as a ‘last call exit’ when price crosses it, and provide SMA Stack Rollovers at the tops of the ripples, yet with the Dip just touching the 24 line and not causing it to lose trend indication.

    SImilarly, just this evening, I found that UNG, Natural gas, has a nice “ripple” to it that is nicely indicated with an SMA-3 of 5, 10, 15 on a DAILY tick mark chart. Prices just track along the 5 day SMA line, and when they cross it from the top, time to sell. When it crosses the 10 day line at a bottom, time to buy if you are not already in. Why is there a (roughly) monthly ripple right now in Natural Gas? I have no idea…. Will it stay there for a month? A year? 5 years? Almost certainly not 5 years. If I’m lucky, another few months. Then, when prices no longer track against those SMA lines, I’ll find a new set that shows what the “other guy” with the Fattest Wallet is using…

    Here is that “experimental” UNG chart:

    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=ung&uf=0&type=4&size=3&sid=6558586&style=320&freq=1&time=7&rand=908368565&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=4&maval=5&lf=2&lf2=16&lf3=256&height=820&width=720&mocktick=1

    Still trying to decide if this looks “reliable’ enough to trade for long.

    I’ll likely look at 10 years worth of historical data with these settings (using the “custome date range” feature at Bigcharts) and look for how often this pattern of ‘fit’ comes around (if it ever has before) and when / how it behaved when it broke down: as most trade tools like this usually do over time… as other trader shift style and pace, so you need to shift with them… so maybe in 6 mos some “new guy” will be assigned to trade UNG for Goldman Sachs and he’ll use a different pattern as he swings his $Billion trade budget… or a hurricane hits and things start moving faster… or the Government mandates a 20% of fleet be CNG cars or…

    So, hope that explains more than it confuses…

  9. E.M.Smith says:

    @Sandy McClintock:

    When is the “wedding season” in India?

    It will likely grow in impact over time… perhaps to someday dominate…

  10. Scarlet Pumpernickel says:

    Yeah, can’t see anything really cheap in the US market to buy. The only thing that looks cheap is Cisco? And it’s actually got something?

    Was thinking Amazon might get in trouble soon, this Kindle thing is starting to happen, but you can download an ebook as easily as an Mp3, so eventually they might be shooting themselves into the foot by allowing people to access books this way? Could be a good short once revenues start to fall?

  11. JRadig says:

    E.M.

    Thanks so much for that answer. In 2008 I had a basic 2-day course/sales pitch from a company looking for investors and software tool subscribers. I paper traded for 2 months. Did great and thought maybe I could be a wizard in June when things were still going OK. Came back to earth in July when things started to turn.

    Towards the end I realized that I had unknowingly been schooled in the basics of momentum trading, which I wouldn’t have been interested in if that name had been used. Paper trading taught me I didn’t have enough background to feel (reasonably) comfortable doing this, didn’t have the time to do the necessary research for daily or weekly trading, and didn’t have the desire to do it.

    Reading multiple posts from you with real life examples and the underlying reasoning has given me added insight and perspective. Your post about long term investing a short while ago really “speaks to me.” That topic was what got me to sign up for the course back in 2008. Thanks again.

  12. TIM CLARK says:

    Posted Dec 27 2010
    Gold coins are selling at a Rs 100 per 10 gram premium since Guru Pushya Nakshatra, one of the most auspicious occasions for buying precious metals in western Indian states. The festival was on last Thursday.

    Festival demand will peak with dhanteras slated in November, when jewellers register highest sales every year. Weddings also take place during the festival season

  13. E.M.Smith says:

    @JRadig:

    You are most welcome. I plan to have sporadic LTI posts from here on out. I’ll eventually even add a LTI Category to the right side. For now, that post was the Starter Posting. The one that builds the base the others weill point at (so I don’t have to rebuild the base each time).

    As LTI is a much slower game, it will likely be a “one a month” or so kind of thing. Weekly charts only get 4 tick markes in a month. Not much to change on that time scale with all of 4 ticks….

    FWIW, IMHO, most trading is “momentum trading” on some time scale (with the exception of news driven day trading / and things like options spreads, straddles, etc.). It’s just the thing that drives the momentum that changes.

    Long Term Growth: Momentum over many years from a new product or new retailing idea.

    Long Term Value: Momentum reversal as corporate fortunes turn around with new managment.

    Short term earnings: Momentum based on quarterly earnings expectations (or he demise of those expectation).

    Swing Trading: Momentum based on changes in news flow and general economic conditions…

    etc.

    Yes, there are non-momentum things. CEO doing a Perp Walk. New competitor has a keen product. Dividend increase. Yet those lead to a kind of momentum trade and predicting them is really trying to predict that MO… or react to it after the 11:00 news…

    There are “predictive trades” where you try to predict Mergers and Earnings Announcments. Pick the “catalyst” and bet on a probable direction. That’s harder than I care for…

    Easier to just say “On good earnings, the Market Maker is going to set the price ‘way high’ that day. Wait 2 days and buy it on the dip when he is covering the shorts he sold that day, then ride the earnings momentum”.

    Most of the “value trades” are just trying to predict when ‘Cheap’ becomes “Too Cheap” and the momentum is likely to swap from down to up. I’d rather identify those candidates, then wait for an indication that the actual momentum change has really started…. then you are back in a momentum trade off a bottom…

    The list goes on, but I’m not going to, as I think it’s pretty clear from those.

    @Scarlet Pumpernickel:

    CISCO is a value trap, IMHO. Lots of old products, not a lot new. F5 and Juniper have more “juice”. Loads of companies not seeing a lot of reason to ‘upgrade’ the network just yet. I’d not “go there”. Microsoft is in the same boat. They’ve both had there growth phases, now it’s more about maintenance and hanging on against new competition….

    What good is a “cash cow” that doesn’t send you the cash?

    @TIM CLARK:

    Thanks for the pointers on Indian Culture. That will matter more over time, but probably already matters…

    For now, I’m waiting for some kind of “mid July” buy point (expecting a rise into the Aug 3 deadline in any case).

    And I’m waiting, and waiting, and waiting…

  14. JRadig says:

    E.M.,
    At the time, my perspective was of “investing” vs “speculation”. Momentum trading to me meant speculation, based on charts that really could not be considered predictive. Speculation being similar to gambling, which my heritage of Missouri Synod Lutheran frowned upon (although Dad and Grandpa sure loved their penny ante poker).

    At this time I’ll agree with your statement about trading being momentum trading. It’s really is hard to argue with “the trend is your friend.” Reading your posts brings home the point you made recently — the charts show what is. That’s valuable information whether one wants to invest or trade/speculate. Certainly investing works better when when we buy at the right price, which the charts can help us determine. From there it’s not that big a step to realize that at the end of the day buying a good company stock or sector fund and holding it isn’t necessarily better than buying and trading that same good company/sector over the same time period. If trading out at the highs allows me to preserve my gains, and then reinvest them for more gain when the company/sector gets cheap again, I should actually do better.

    The charts tell is what is; they don’t predict the future. However, your series of postings are helpful in showing the rest of us how certain combinations of factors can, based on the history of trends, give us indications of what might happen, and ways to take advantage of that. It is up to us to use the information about what is, and what might be, along with the rest of the information we collect, to determine what we want to do going forward.

    So to get back to my original question about time scale and moving average periods, I’ve learned from you that there is no underlying logic that sets the common practice in stone. Rather, these are just tools that can be varied to help us look at things in a different perspective, which might help us identify a revealing pattern. You’ve revealed a versitility that makes these tools more valuable than I knew they could be. Thanks.

  15. E.M.Smith says:

    @JRadig:

    You are most welcome.

    Frankly, I’ve got that warm wonderfull feeling washing over me that “someone got it!” that all the time spent endlessly retyping the same “RSI says this and MACD says that” have finally “paid off” ;-)

    I’ve got me “emotional hit” from giving a gift to another… so really, I ought to be thanking you …

    FWIW, the way I “square the circle” of investihng vs momentum trading is simple:

    Each company has a lifetime. They are born, grow, stagnate, and eventually die.

    As an investor, it is my goal to help companies in the first two stages, maybe make some cash out of the third as dividends “return on investment” and exit as rapidly as possible before the forth stage. It is morally wrong for me to waste my entrusted assets by letting them be squandered on a company that is no longer creating wealth, but is destroying it.

    Very long term charts are just a way for you to see those moments with clarity.

    The ramp and rise of youth, the “rolling sideways” of middle age, and the decline of a company on the skids. They help you do your duty to ‘preserve capital’.

    So look at a very long term chart of CISCO.

    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=csco&uf=0&type=4&size=3&sid=6458&style=320&freq=2&time=13&rand=1549545841&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=4&maval=24&lf=2&lf2=4&lf3=1024&height=820&width=720&mocktick=1

    Rampant growth and rise, now into stagnation.

    The time to ‘leave the party’ was at 32, not the 26 last year nor the 16 of now.

    My money would do more good for the world if I moved it to a new company making new things and, to use the Apple phrase “Changing the World”. Apple was in growth, under Spindler, tried to transistion to a “Chemical Company” non-growth model (during the troubled years) then reawakend to new growth with the “Change the World” products of the iPhone, iPad, etc.

    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=aapl&uf=0&type=4&size=3&sid=609&style=320&freq=2&time=13&rand=2023151616&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=4&maval=24&lf=2&lf2=4&lf3=1024&height=820&width=720&mocktick=1

    If you compare the two charts, they tell you were you would have done the most for the world with your money AND made the most gain for you too.

    This process of “asset allocation” is vitally important to the supremacy of capitalism, and is a key reason why socialism fails. Socialism does not efficiently reallocate capital. It sticks it’s wealth in failing and stangnant industries until it is all consumed, then explodes in a social death throws…

    So realize that it isn’t just “OK” to use long term charts to find what companies have “change the world” growth, it is a moral duty to allocate your captial wisely both for you, and for the community at large.

    Hope that helps with the Lutheran bit… ;-)

    Which of these has done the most to Change The World:

    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=aapl&uf=0&type=4&size=3&sid=609&style=320&freq=2&time=13&rand=1378736016&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&comp=spy+csco&ma=4&maval=24&lf=2&lf2=4&lf3=1024&height=820&width=720&mocktick=1

  16. Scarlet Pumpernickel says:
  17. Scarlet Pumpernickel says:

    CISCO I think, remember the buy it for your grandkids slogan, back in the tech days. But I think things are starting to change with the internet, we see more and more tablets and smart phones, the dreams of the tech boom are actually starting to happen. And Cisco’s time is coming up soon. Who else makes what the make? They are still the leader in the backbone of the internet, and it’s actually starting to accelerate. Maybe it’ll go to $10 one more time when the DOW crashes, but maybe its a bit like Apple when Apple went down really low then it took of again. But I see your point. But Cisco is changing the world and we will become more and more reliant on the internet as Apple’s changing the world does rely on Cisco?

  18. E.M.Smith says:

    @Scarlet Pumpernickel:

    The Sovereign Gold would most likely not be sold on the open market. Transfer payment to some other central bank or held as ‘reserves’ against a loan of larger value most likely.

    Per CISCO: The problem is that a LOT of folks make what they make. From HP (HPQ ticker) in switches to Juniper in high end routers to a herd of folks making mid-scale routers. Heck, I’ve made a router out of a Linux box a couple of times when a client needed “something” fast and the P.O. Cycle was not going to do… (though BSD works better, the networking stack is more optimal…)

    In some ways CISCO was a “one trick pony” when it first came out. The IOS was just a repackaged cut down network optimal UNIX. They’ve spent years rewriting chunks of it to be “theirs”, but at little actual value add. They’ve bought up a load of other companies trying to buy growth, but frankly, they are selling into an increasingly generic market…

    Their technology is not “disruptive” change the world type, it is “me too” facilitative of a change that has already happened… the move to the internet.

    Per gold:

    It will not be at a top as long as the world governments continue to bugger their currencies…

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