Solar Max 2014, then Grand Minimum for perhaps 100 years

A very interesting presentation. Based on prior patterns of solar magnetic field, the predictions are that this Solar Cycle Maximum will come between 2013 and 2014, will be about 40 to 60 sunspot number, and then we will enter a Grand Minimum until perhaps as late as 2100 AD.

Solar Activity and Climate from Lightcurve Films on Vimeo.

I’m not so good at Dutch, so here’s a Google Translation with some cleanup:

In de Volkskrant and NRC Wednesday, June 15 (and perhaps even more newspapers) there was an article derived from a U.S. press release, the sun will have about a ten year period of prolonged inactivity, we will have little or no sunspots to see, nor solar flares, explosions …. In the NRC, this appears as a new discovery and has failed to report that this expectation has been published for several years before in the scientific literature by De Jager and Duhau. See page so the Sun-Earth publications of this website.

In early 2011 started, at last, after three years of silence, the new 11-year solar cycle number 24. This happened some years later than expected under the ‘normal’ behavior of solar cycles. Based on the measured magnetic field at the poles several years ago we could predict that cycle 24 will be weak, weaker than we had experienced the last century. We also reported that two large magnetic fields of the Sun in 2009, the sun’s activity, had passed the Transition Point in the phase diagram, which means that a new episode of major change of the sun’s activity has come. The previous passage was in 1924 and was the exceptional Grand Maximum of the 20th century. The new episode is a deep minimum. It will look similar to the Maunder Minimum, which lasted from 1620 to 1720. (The NRC is the beginning year 1645 but said that based on outdated and inaccurate information). This new Grand Minimum will last until approximately 2100.

(I was pointed at this site by R. De Haan At any rate, I finally got time to watch it, so “H/T to R. de Haan”. It is a very nice presentation. IMHO, attributes a bit too much to water feedback as a GHG, not enough to volcanic linking, but that some “feedback” or “multiplier” is needed seems clear, and as long as it IS linked, knowing exactly which one is not as important as know that one does exist and has about that magnitude. You still get the same result. Headed to colder.)

This is now a third major scientist, from a third line of evidence, all ending up at the same conclusion. This one from solar magnetic history. One based on a Fourier Transform analysis of past solar cycles. And Habibullo Ismailovich Abdussamatov based on observations of changes of the solar size (the diameter changes slightly with activity).

IMHO “Third Times The Charm”…

With this much all stacking up the same way, the present “cold winter” aint nothin’ yet. We’re only 1/2 way into the Major Minimum and still have about a dozen years of “dropping” to go. At that point, we’re one large volcano away from The Year Without A Summer.

Plan accordingly…

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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49 Responses to Solar Max 2014, then Grand Minimum for perhaps 100 years

  1. Pascvaks says:

    Assuming (for just a moment;-) that another Grand Ol’ Minimum has effects (in General;-) like the last Little Ice Age, its sure going to give Bollywood and Hollywood some great material for fantasy movies about Surfing in the Tropics and Racing Across the Sahara while everyone North of Miami is freezing to death. But it does seem, with all the 98.6F bodies on the planet these days, that we’re also in for some great Horror Pics about Illegally Chopping Down Trees in Central Park in the Middle of the Freezing MidSummer’s Night and Illegally Digging Coal By Candlelight in West Virginia Coalmines protected by Killer Dogs, and all while avoiding Bad Mean Psycho Killer Cops out to protect the Bad Bad General Welfare and who have orders to shot to kill nice innocent thieves doing such no-nos. And, I’ll bet, there’s going to be a flood of Pics about Killer Diseases caused by ruptured frozen water pipes and poor quality food and people from some far off country flying to NYC or LA and passing on a plague or two that kills hundreds of millions in the course of a week. Yep! Lot of money to be made. What a world! Do you think guys will start wearing wigs again and hemlines will fall to the floor?

  2. hpx83 says:

    Aw, damn it Chiefio, do you have to keep stacking up the evidence? I’m trying to get out of the apocalyptic mindset in regards to the economy, and there you go throwing a climate apocalypse on us instead.

    Ah well, I guess uncertainty and disasters is in our future, as well as our past.

    Keep up the great work :)

  3. Geoff Sharp says:

    C/mon Chiefio, Dejager’s work is pure garbage. There is no chance of the Sun remaining in grand minimum state until 2100.

  4. E.M.Smith says:

    @Geoff Sharp:

    Present your evidence…

    As near as I can tell, he’s just saying “Grand Minimum cold like Maunder, and it was about 100 years long”. The Planetary Motion folks say “We’ve got the pattern worked out”. So show where his “it was like this last time” is out of sync with “we have the pattern and it will be like this instead”….

    (And I’d have thought you’d be in favor of someone else “calling the ball” for a cold spell as the Barycenter Folks are the unstated 4th line of “evidence” in that the theory predicts a Grand Minimum now… I guess “the more the merrier” doesn’t stand up to “mine mine mine mine mine” ;-)


    VERY important to keep your “time scales” in mind.

    Yes, we’re screwed. Inevitably, undeniably Dead Meat Screwed. In about 5 billion years when the sun expands and melts the Earth. So between now and then we need to get off this rock and set up a nice little colony on Mars and maybe even a decent place on Titan, along with some realy nice space stations (about 1 million population each) in orbit around the gas giants.

    In the 20,000 year time scale, we’re screwed. Inevitably, undeniably Dead Meat Screwed as The Ice Age Cometh. (Maybe even as soon as 1000 years… if it’s happening now, we’d really notice in about 1000 years…) So in a few centuries we need to figure out how to move a lot of Russians and Canadians to all the “new land” that will be opening up around Australia / Indonesia as the sea floor is exposed again, and Florida, as it gets to be about 3 x the present land area. (Buy Florida Swamp Land “for the grand Children” ;-)

    In between the fire of 5 billion years and the ice of 20,000 years there ought to be some good times to be had…

    Between now and the ice of 20,000 years, we’ll have another Bond Event (IMHO, starting “now”) and then a recovery into a Future Climate Optimum about 700 years from now. To be followed by another “cold dip” 1500 years from now… and mark your callendar, A Way Future Climate Optimum in about 4200 AD from a rise starting in 3500 AD…

    Is ANY of that an “apocalypse” ? (“The two fleshy lobes surrounding the mouth of the Great South American Apoca”… ;-)

    Looks to me more like “business as usual”. If I know what’s coming and the other guy doesn’t, then “me and mine” have a bit of advantage and get to have first shot at: The new Florida land, that slot on the Titan colony, a nice mountain top “ski resort” to be opened in Northern Mexico. A visa slot for Panama. Or even just “grain futures”…

    So, apocalypse? Naw. Just a bit of foresight…

    If 2040 is going to be “way cold”, does that really hurt me now? Is it really “bad”? Or does it just mean “don’t buy a retirement cabin in Alaska, look to Arizona”? Does it mean “the end of our life as oil runs out in the cold” or does it mean “Nuclear stocks WILL recover as a long term investment”?

    Once upon a time I was applying for a visa to travel to Australia. In a moment of stupidity I asked the clerk , a large friendly and a bit too good looking fellow: “Do you think I’ll have a good time down under?” A clumsy way of asking “is there anything much to see and do?”. In typical Aussie Pluck he gave me the sideways one eye lookover and said: “Eer now, Lyife is what you make it; now isdn’t it mate?”…

    Something that has stuck with me more than just about anything I ever ran into in school.

    Such a small little thing. A platitude undoubtedly used widely and without much thought for generations. Yet, it spoke volumes.

    It was up to ME to make myself happy. It was up to ME to make something of my trip. Australia owed me no debt of happiness, but it also could not stop me from making a go of it if I’d get off my ass and chose to be happy.

    Very Australian. (At least, the Australia of 1/2 century ago…)

    You will find echo’s of that moment repeated here (and throughout my life). I sent my Son to Australia as a Student Ambassador (he loved it, and came back just a little bit Aussie ;-) You will find a bit of “edge” in what I say to some folks about how they feel (recently when I informed someone that they could “choose to be pissed, but I rather liked to choose being centered myself…”) It all comes directly from that moment.

    So, hpx83, imagine a bit of a head tilt, a sidelong glance with one piercing blue eye (over a wry smile): Sure, it’s going to be cold and snowing. But life is what you make it, now, isn’t it mate? Right now I’ve got to wax my skiis, and I’ve always wanted to buy a snowmobile. LOVE “winter sports”. Oh, and I’m checking out this cabana in the tropics with a long sloping beach as an off season place to hang out. On sale cheap as the “warmers” have convinced folks the island is going to sink… And I’m thinking about stock in Polaris who make both the Victory motorcycle and snowmobiles…

    Worries? No worries mate, never found a good use for ’em…


    Or just “Disney World Florida” bookings to be high and Brazilian farms to do well, buy DIS and CZ for long term investments… Sell that Summer Home in Vermont and buy that condo in Santa Fe … THEN go watch that nice Fiction Movie about how horrible things are … See you at the bar after…

  5. R. de Haan says:

    As a frequent visitor of Geoff Sharp’s site “Beyond Landscheidt I clearly see why he doesn’t like Prof. Dr. C. de Jager’s views, just as I don’t appreciate de Jager’s views about water feed back attributions, even though he has stated he is no specialist on this field.

    However, I welcome any rational discussion about the subject while I make my own observations, draw my own conclusions. We are all having this great opportunity with a front row seat and a great number of sophisticated observation and sensor platforms available for the first time in human history.
    Let’s make the best of the opportunity and exchange information in a civil and productive manner.

    With all due respect but calling the work of de Jager “pure garbage” doesn’t help much and I really hope we can do better than that.

  6. E.M.Smith says:

    @R. de Haan:

    I also suspect that Geoff didn’t notice that the word “perhaps” was used in front of the “100 years” statement.

    I have to admit to being a bit surprised by the reaction. I’d expected a fellow “minimum now” observer to be greeted not scorned. To me, it looks like de Jager is simply saying “Minimum like Maunder now. That one was 100 years, so perhaps this one too.” which seems like a valid way to state his observations.

    That Landscheidt called for a minium now would, I’d have thought, have caused de Jager to be taken as confirmation. Yet for some reason we have a “dust up” over the “perhaps a 100 years” speculation (that is clearly presented as speculation by de Jager in the film).

    Ah, well. Folks get their “sensitive spots” and even a friendly hand on the shoulder can set them off…

  7. R. de Haan says:

    “With this much all stacking up the same way, the present “cold winter” aint nothin’ yet. We’re only 1/2 way into the Major Minimum and still have about a dozen years of “dropping” to go. At that point, we’re one large volcano away from The Year Without A Summer”.

    One large volcano or many smaller ones!
    One thing is for sure.
    Solar activity remains low, seismic and volcanic events are clearly on the increase. This fact alone together with the “time factor” makes it more probable that a really big one is in the making.

    What I have seen over the past 10 years from quakes, tsunami’s and recent volcanic eruptions shutting down huge area’s for air traffic tells me we have been a bunch of lucky bastards to live in times that brought us relative pleasant weather conditions and a relative quite second half of the past century in geological terms.

    We are navigating different waters now.

  8. E.M.Smith says:

    Personally, I’d speculate that the convergence of the two magnetic flux spots on de Jagers graph might well happen at the same time as some particular “planetary alignment” happens (i.e. the barycenter stirring is in a particular phase, such as retrograde orbit) and would love to have someone compare both the Landscheidt / Charvatova trefoils timing with the magnetic flux timing. It could well be that the mag flux changes show the method by which the stirring has an impact.

    Perhaps the same thing that ‘stirs’ our volcanoes…

    But if just dismissed with “garbage” that chance for confirmation and mechanism is lost…

    But as I’m due on an airplane “soon”, I need to get on with ‘trip prep’ and don’t have time to do wiggle matching between de Jager and Landscheidt and Charvatova…

  9. George says:

    I see a lot of people saying Grand Minimum but for most it seems more of a “belief” than anything based on evidence. How would they know it isn’t going to be something like the Dalton? There have also been other minima that have been shorter than the Maunder.

    The Oort Minimum was about 40 years (AD1010-1050)
    Then there was the Wolfe Minimum (AD1280-1350)
    Spörer Minimum (1460-1550)
    Maunder Minimum (1645-1715)
    Dalton Minimum (1790-1820)

    So the LIA was actually several minima (four of them), or maybe a different way of looking at it, one long minimum with a few active peaks in it with names given to the periods between the peaks. The Modern Maximum began in 1950.

  10. gallopingcamel says:


    “In about 5 billion years when the sun expands and melts the Earth. So between now and then we need to get off this rock and set up a nice little colony on Mars and maybe even a decent place on Titan, along with some realy nice space stations (about 1 million population each) in orbit around the gas giants.”

    My! Sorry to find you in such a down mood. Why think so small? Surely we will have nuclear propulsion in the fairly near future with the promise of 1 g acceleration maintained for however many years it takes to reach stellar destinations.

    “In the 20,000 year time scale, we’re screwed. Inevitably, undeniably Dead Meat Screwed as The Ice Age Cometh. ”

    Yes and just suppose it arrives very suddenly, the human race will rise to the occasion. We will construct nuclear power plants faster than we built Liberty ships in WWII (2 ships of 14,000 tonnes DWT per day).

    Call me a crazy optimist but mankind is at its best when the going gets tough; luxury weakens us. The next Ice Age will not reduce Homo Sapiens to a few thousand breeding pairs.

    It looks as if the KSC is serious about launching that shuttle. Do you have an itinerary yet?

  11. vukcevic says:

    DeJager hypothesis is over-cooking it . What I see from the magnetic data is SC24 low (as extrapolation of my 2003 dated formula shows, at the time when Hathaway and Dikpati were predicting the strongest cycle ever), very low half cycle (lasting only 6-7 years) SC25 , with lot of doom and gloom ‘the end of the world as we know it’ predictions; SC26 on par with SC24 and then back to normal.

  12. Pascvaks says:

    If folks are as ‘normal’ during the Twenty-First Century as they were in the Twentieth Century the weather and climate should be the least of our worries. With so many inquiring ‘minds’ focused on smoke and clouds, whatever’s coming around the next bend of the river is going to surprise a lot of folks. Today’s a good day to reflect on something* we all take for granted and count our blessings.

    *- Freedom isn’t free.

  13. George says:

    I agree that this could turn out to be more Daltonesque and less Maunderesque.

  14. E.M.Smith says:


    I’m not in a “down mood”… I think you missed the “strain” between the “downer points” and the “just do this to fix” counters. I.e. the “sarcasm” in the intro points as they are steamrolled by things like “get off this rock”…

    My “itinerary” so far is “catch the flight tonight”…


    Personally, I’m pretty sure we will have a Nuclear World War long before any of the geology / solar / climate issues have a chance to cause us any issues, and most likely a financial collapse and political chaos at the hands of our “masters” before that… (i.e. the lead in to said war). But I don’t have enough to prove it yet ;-)

    As to the depth of this minimum: Nobody has a real clue. We’re all just making different qualities of guesses based on different talismans…

    Could just as easily have a 25,000 year galactic alighment instigated “aw shit” of galactic proportions as a “yawner” nothing really happens. Lifes a crap shoot, bet on 6 and 8 …

  15. E.M.Smith says:

    For some reason I don’t understand, the blog has suddenly shifted to very tiny type font for me.

    I’d like to know if others have seen this too?

    It may be related to something in the newest posting, that I may well withdraw until I can debug things. That posting also will not open a comment box no matter what I do, so I think one of the images may have bogus binary in it…

    At any rate, a confirmation that it’s not just my browser would be appreciated.

  16. George says:

    Looks normal to me. Maybe you bumped he control key while using your mouse wheel.

    Are comments disabled in the new thread on purpose?

  17. George says:

    Well, meant the new thread that just disappeared :)

  18. The text is of normal size, but as of a moment ago there are still not comments possible on the sea floor post.

    Incidentally, happy US Independence Day!

    I’ve done a bit of commemorative poetry here:

    ===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle

  19. vukcevic says:

    If you use any version of IE browser in
    Tools, Internet Options, Accessibility
    Ignore font sizes specified on webpages
    then wherever you go font size will stay constant.

  20. DirkH says:

    When the letters become smaller that’s due to the expansion of the universe. You can compensate it for a while with ctrl +. (a positively charged ctrl).

    Thanks, E.M. and Ron for presenting this. Canada’s off my list of possible places to escape to.

  21. gallopingcamel says:

    I still have not found a way to contact you “off line”.

    Will you have time to meet your fans on the Space Coast during your visit or will you be too busy?

  22. E.M.Smith says:


    I saw the email, I’m just busy getting everything done before I depart.

    I’m on the Space Coast with virtually nothing to do other than wait for the shuttle to launch. Then I’m going to be arround for the longer of “However long I feel like it” or “The ‘cheap airfair window’ duration”. So probably about 3 weeks to a month all told…

    After I’m there I’ll be more “communicative”…

  23. UninterestingConnections says:

    We have built a civilization that is very fragile, IMO.

    I wonder whether we have the ability to withstand stresses to the system.

  24. UninterestingConnections,

    I used to think that the next Ice Age mentioned by Chiefio would come close to rendering mankind extinct but nuclear power may save us as long as the cold weather arrives before that nuclear war he anticipates.

  25. Jeff Alberts says:

    Why would it cause an extinction? humans evolved in the middle of the last couple ice ages. Certainly billions would most likely die, but extinct? Hardly.

  26. Jeff Alberts says:

    FYI, the blog text and layout appear the same to me. Using Firefox 4…

  27. One of the regular features of glaciation is a great reduction in CO2. It drops down below 200ppm, not far above the 150 level where plants stop growing.

    Thus, human involvement might help to stave off one of the worst effects on the planet, which is the dramatic reduction in plant growth. Food, in other words.

    There will still likely be massive starvation. But I’d agree that we won’t be wiped out entirely.

    And soon, we’ll expand beyond this planet.

    ===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle

  28. Ralph B says:

    How I wish ole Leif Svalgard that frequents WUWT stopped by. His panty’s get in a serious bind whenever barycenters and the sun are mentioned.

    From what I have gathered so far though there is no proven ties between sun spots and climate. I’m not saying they don’t have an effect but what is the mechanism?

  29. @Ralph B, who wrote:

    From what I have gathered so far though there is no proven ties between sun spots and climate.

    Well, there are no “proven” ties between the Sun and climate, perhaps. Except for certain aspects of physics, science is a series of successively better approximations rather than proof, per se. This is coupled (sometimes incorrectly) with accepted statements of our understanding.

    In the case of the Sun, we accept that the Earth’s climate is driven by heat, and we accept that more than 99.999% of this heat arrives in the form of various radiations from the Sun.

    We have measured that, in general, sunspots increase the solar output (averaged across the spectrum) by about a tenth of a percent. There are two caveats: First, that this is an average. Certain portions of the UV spectrum, for example, change by tens of percent. Second, it assumes a constant baseline, but even Wikipedia shows how much this increased in the second half of the 20th century.

    Also, the sun is increasingly magnetically active; sunspots are in essence a magnetic phenomenon, and they are linked to a north-south pole flip about every 11 years (about 22 years for the complete cycle), something that on Earth can take millions of years. (There have been about 30 complete cycles since the K-T impact 65 million years ago.)

    We are just beginning to appreciate the contribution of these other effects; such as Solar magnetic involvement with our own magnetic field and the resulting impact on clouds.

    So the Sun throttles up and down slightly, but enough to push us around over time. And cloud changes are the major negative feedback system of our climate, and has kept us in a narrow band for billions of years, even when we had twenty times the current carbon dioxide levels.

    Clouds (and thus albedo) changes, UV changes, magnetic field (and thus cosmic ray) changes, all are not yet well understood.

    Moreover, these things are not well documented. We know that albedo can change by tens of percent in a day. But we don’t measure it the way we do temperature; we very loosely approximate it, and at broad intervals.

    And we have no idea, for example, what the albedo was in the 1930s when the US (and probably the rest of the world) was hotter than at any time since.

    We think it was close to an average value for today, but minor differences in albedo dwarf any effect from CO2 and other greenhouse gas changes.

    Modelers used guesses about aerosols, but recent work suggests that aerosols work rather differently in practice, heating rather than cooling.

    Nature magazine ran an article in August of 2007 in which experiments showed that aerosol changes could explain 100% of the warming they saw over the Indian Ocean. They did something rather clever with three radio-controlled drone aircraft, stacked vertically and thus measuring sunlight and temperatures in the same column at the same time.

    ===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle

  30. R. de Haan says:

    Unfortunately we don’t live long enough to observe more than 8 solar cycles although Prof. Dr. C. de Jager could break this barrier soon.

    At this moment in time life expectancy in the Western World is increasing by three months every year.

    There are scientists who think that the first human to reach the age of 150 years is already born and some think humans have the potential to live 1.000 years.

  31. R. de Haan says:

    Jeff Alberts
    “Why would it cause an extinction? humans evolved in the middle of the last couple ice ages. Certainly billions would most likely die, but extinct? Hardly.”

    You are right.

    We now build cities in places that were regarded uninhabitable (something different than survivable) 200 years ago.

    As a technocrat I think we could work wonders adapting to new conditions but only if the political system supports the concept of survival for all.

    This is currently not the case.

    Political agenda’s are set to trigger big scale famine and a reduction of consumption.

    These policies will cause a clash which IMO poses a bigger threat to our civilization than the onset of an ice age.

  32. E.M.Smith says:

    I’m now on the ground in Orlando and after a sleepless ‘RED EYE’ flight intend to take a nap. With luck, later in the day, I can catch up with everyone else ;-)

    Everything on the blog looks fine on my laptop, too, so I suspect some setting in the browser on the MS Box. At any rate, it is shut off for the duration of the trip, so ‘no worries’…


  33. Ralph B says:

    Mr de Haan,

    How long was it Methuselah lived? Pretty near 1000, so if you are a believing man then I guess we do have that potential.
    My life expectancy drops by 3 months every time Costco has a sale on corn dogs, I don’t think I’m the one that will make 150…

    I would also bet the political agenda would change a tad if a kilometer of ice was threatening Chicago. You probably won’t find too many protesters at the opening of a new coal plant.

  34. Geoff Sharp says:

    Not meaning to be too controversial…but DeJager is hardly on the planetary side. He is just one of the many getting on the band wagon without really understanding the solar process. If so he would never predict a solar minimum lasting to 2100…..crazy stuff.

  35. Geoff Sharp says:

    I am very happy to present my evidence if this forum want to here it?

  36. H.R. says:


    Say “Hi” to Mickey from all of us ;o)

    (Anyone stuck in a Disney character costume is, no doubt, praying fervently for a Maunder-type minimum.)

  37. George says:

    The problem is going to be the displacement of people. We are much more mobile than we were even 100 years ago, let alone 10,000 years ago. If you consider that most of Canada will be deposited somewhere around Indiana, where are those people gong to go?

    Worse yet, what happens with Russia? Where to do those people go? These events come on very quickly, within a human’s lifespan. What about the Scandinavians, where do they go? Humans will be forced out of areas where they are currently living much faster than the sea level will drop to make new land. In the past this probably caused great conflicts as people migrated into lands settled by other tribes. More competition for scarce resources will bring turmoil. But just image no agricultural production at all in Canada and a lot of it in the US gone. Nothing from North Dakota, Montana, Idaho, Minnesota.

    Then changes in weather patterns might result in a greening of the Great Basin. It is going to be a strange, strange world for a while.

  38. R. de Haan says:

    During the Maunder Minimum when agriculture in Scotland collapsed, the Scots managed to send out some ships to start a colony in Panama.
    Unfortunately their endeavor turned into disaster due to malaria and other mishaps but the effort was made.

    Today we have totally different opportunities.

    I can see the Canadian Government make a deal with countries in the South
    bringing in people, technology and money.

    The entire world population could live in an area with the size of the State of Texas.

    So I don’t see any major problems long term and if we plan this well mass starvation is not on the agenda.

  39. If energy is cheap enough it is amazing what you can grow indoors.

    Holland has been using their abundant natural gas to heat huge arrays of greenhouses that grow all kinds of things that would not thrive in the open.

    By the time the next Ice Age hits we will need to generate cheap electricity using a fuel that is truly abundant……anyone for Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors?

  40. E.M.Smith says:


    We’ve already seen what happens:

    The Migration Period Pessimum (also referred to as Dark Ages Cold Period) was a period of cold climate in the North Atlantic region, lasting from about 450 to about 900 AD. [1] It succeeded the Roman Age Optimum and was followed by the Medieval Warm Period.

    This Migration Period Pessimum saw the retreat of agriculture, including pasturing as well as cultivation of crops, leading to reforestation in large areas of central Europe and Scandinavia. [2] This period corresponds to the time following the Decline of the Roman Empire around 480 and the Plague of Justinian (541-542). [3] Climatically this period was one of rapid cooling indicated from tree-ring data [4] as well as sea surface temperatures based on diatom stratigraphy in Norwegian Sea [5] , which can be correlated with Bond event 1 in the North Atlantic sediments. [6] It was also a period of rising lake levels, increased bog growth and a peak in lake catchment erosion.

    “The Dark Ages”….

    The main “Wiki” used to name this The Migration Period Pessimum, but after some comments (some by me) about WHY cold times were called pessimums and warm times optimums “someone” set about sterilizing the record….

    But a web search on Pessimum will still turn it up in some places…


    We could use cheap nuclear or even some kinds of geothermal and all that natural gas we’ve just found. Much of the top end produces is already grown in greenhouses (largely for better quality blemish free produce).

    It’s not a problem, IFF we decide to do it…

    @R de Haan and George:

    Now you see the clever design behind my plan:

    (evil laughter fading into distance ;-)


    Will do!

    @Geoff Sharp:

    I would rather you say something like “I think he’s got the dates all wrong, and here is why: link” than just “Idiot”… It would also be interesting to know if his “two mag fields come together” matches any particular solar motion timing (entry to trefoil, exit from, start of retrograde?) or if it’s a complete orthogonal then it’s just another fanciful idea… correlation not being causality and all…

    But yeah, I’m up for reading some “compare and contrast”…

  41. Geoff Sharp says:

    The DeJager paper is 32 pages of laborious reading that really goes nowhere. There is an attempt to create phase diagrams using sun spot numbers and aa values that supposedly represents the state of the toroidal field at the tachocline. The aa records go back to the 1844 and he uses some kind of extrapolation (Nagovitsyn, 2006) to reproduce the aa values of the Maunder. Other than that he is relying on Gleisberg and De Vries cycles which is really just cyclomania without understanding the underlying principles.

    Click to access 2010-Variable-solar-dynamo3.pdf

    But if we look at the AM graph it is very clear why the Maunder Minimum was so long and also why the Dalton Minimum was rather weak. It takes an understanding of the two forces in play, the modulation force and the disruptive force (powerwave article on my blog) but basically we can quantify the strength and length of the disrupting force that causes grand minima. Looking at the present and the lack of future disrupting force we should see a recovery after SC25. You could argue that both theories are rubbish but I think AM theory at least has hindcasting ability and does look to be right on track at present.

  42. Pascvaks says:

    An old saying, “Scratch a Russian and you’ll find a peasant.” (or some such) Guess I have a little Russian in my blood; I’ve always thought the saying was quite true of everyone. In fact, I’d add that if you ‘scratch a peasant you’ll find a caveman’. So in the bottom of my teacup I see something like postwar Europe, a’la 1945, and no winner or rich Big Daddy with deep pockets to bale anyone out, as the more likely effect of major climate change (hot or cold, but especially COLD being the worst) on ‘modern civilization’.

    Canada and Scandanivia freeze, folks move South and are absorbed with a few bumps and bruses. More than a few crazies in the US, Europe, and China, think it’s only going to get worse and start heading for Mexico and N.Africa and SE Asia – now the blood really starts to boil and people start shooting.

    Civilization is not global and culture is only local. When the rich get cold and move to the middle of the planet, the poor there now will huff and puff and (especially if there’s a difference in ‘gods’) start shooting. Lots of folks are going to die for many reasons. The biggest will be ‘Chaos’, confusion, and with the breakdown of law and order, every man for himself ‘caveman rules’. (And that’s if it happens ‘slowly’. Speed up the changes and death and destruction go up exponentially.)

    If you are a ‘civilized’ person, please never forget how to farm, or live in a cave. Life can sometimes suprise you in very big ways.

  43. R. de Haan says:

    Here is yet another report about the upcoming cold, this time from a Swedish Scientist Axel Morner:

    Click to access Moerner_Science_environm_sea_level_3_11_Paper_534.pdf

    The PDF is part of an article from Ric Werme at WUWT

  44. R. de Haan says:

    Thanks for your explanation Geoff.

  45. Pingback: What are the odds of a new ice age? | Sullivan's Travelers

  46. If you are waiting for the next volcano, perhaps you should start watching what is happening at Katla in Iceland (the magma has started moving in).



  47. Pingback: Solar Max 2014, then Grand Minimum for perhaps 100 years | The GOLDEN RULE

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