So I’m left to wonder why “Gaming” is beating so much of the rest of the market…
BJK - Gaming ETF GLD - Gold ETF SPY - S&P 500 Index Fund IWN - Russell 2000 Index Fund EWO - Austria ETF EWS - Singapore ETF EWD - Sweden ETF
So, top of this heap, is a “Gaming” bundle. Right behind it is Austria (where the Greek Debt to their banks was/is an issue). Then the Swedes, the Russel 2000, and everything else..
“Why? Don’t ask why, down that path lies insanity and ruin. -E.M.Smith”…
Maybe because if feels so good when you stop?
Maybe because they didn’t die, and this is a short covering rally?
Maybe an early indicator that Chinese lose just as much as Japanese and US “business men” on junkets?
the “holdings” tab says it has:
Las Vegas Sands Corp. Common St LVS 12.86
Las Vegas Sands Corp. Common St LVS 12.22
Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN 8.80
Genting Berhad N/A 6.94
International Game Technology C IGT 4.17
OK, a lot of Las Vegas Sands and some Wynn resorts. Then some “other stuff” and IGT who make slot machines. The .HK is, I think, Hong Kong market. The .AX I have no idea.
Looking at the “industry” for LVS gives these 3 month winners vs losers:
INDUSTRY INDEX STATISTICS Price: 590.70 Price Change: 19.03 % Price Change: 3.33% 52-Week Range: 346.60 to 618.37 Best Performing Stocks Symbol Company Name Percent Change Charts ATIG Atlantis Internet Group Corp. 1,233% MPEL Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. ADS 69.66% NYNY Empire Resorts Inc. 55.00% FGMG Florida Gaming Corp. 45.96% NNSR NanoSensors Inc. 40.00% IXMD Intelimax Media Inc. 35.14% ASCA Ameristar Casinos Inc. 28.38% CPHC Canterbury Park Holding Corp. 26.55% SCHYY Sands China Ltd. ADS 22.58% WYNMF Wynn Macau Ltd. 19.71% Worst Performing Stocks Symbol Company Name Percent Change Charts EGT Entertainment Gaming Asia Inc. -27.35% GMTC Gametech International Inc. -26.91% MGAM Multimedia Games Holding Co. Inc. -19.55% LACO Lakes Entertainment Inc. -15.61% WMS WMS Industries Inc. -13.43% FLL Full House Resorts Inc. -13.23% SHFL Shuffle Master Inc. -12.17% ISLE Isle of Capri Casinos Inc. -10.11% DDE Dover Downs Gaming & Entertainment Inc. -8.96% AERL Asia Entertainment & Resources Ltd. -8.88%
Florida Gaming Corp? Who knew… The ADS is “American Depository Shares”, indicating the actual company is in another country. Looks to me like folks catering to “overseas” have the most growth. Las Vegas, not so much. Several of the traditional Las Vegas names are not even on this list, so are “middle of the pack” somewhere.
Traditionally you can also include Cruise Lines in this sector, as they have gambling on board, or put them in with hotels. My “typical” candidates are RCL and CCL as cruise lines (they can move the “casino” to wherever the “action” is).
At any rate, it looks like some “action” to be had in “gaming”, but I’d be careful about throwing too much money at that table. Though a decent “dig here” would be that ATIG stock… Wonder if it’s all “played out” or just starting to roll the dice…
So that’s an example of how you can start with an ETF race. See what’s moving, and then “Drill down” to find the really rocking vs the “also ran” members of that sector.
If you click on “show all members of this sector” on that “industry list”, you get a list of all the candidate tickers to sort through:
ASCA Ameristar Casinos Inc. ARHND Archon Corp. AERL Asia Entertainment & Resources Ltd. ATIG Atlantis Internet Group Corp. BYI Bally Technologies Inc. BYD Boyd Gaming Corp. CPHC Canterbury Park Holding Corp. CNTY Century Casinos Inc. CHDN Churchill Downs Inc. DDE Dover Downs Gaming & Entertainment Inc. NYNY Empire Resorts Inc. EGT Entertainment Gaming Asia Inc. FGMG Florida Gaming Corp. FLL Full House Resorts Inc. GMTC Gametech International Inc. GPIC Gaming Partners International Corp. IXMD Intelimax Media Inc. IGT International Game Technology ISLE Isle of Capri Casinos Inc. KENS Kenilworth Systems Corp. LACO Lakes Entertainment Inc. LVS Las Vegas Sands Corp. MPEL Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. ADS MGM MGM Resorts International MGAM Multimedia Games Holding Co. Inc. MCRI Monarch Casino & Resort Inc. MNTG MTR Gaming Group Inc. NNSR NanoSensors Inc. UWN Nevada Gold & Casinos Ltd. PENN Penn National Gaming Inc. PNK Pinnacle Entertainment Inc. PTEK PokerTek Inc. SCHYY Sands China Ltd. ADS SGMS Scientific Games Corp. SHFL Shuffle Master Inc. TPCA Tropicana Entertainment Inc. WMS WMS Industries Inc. WYNMF Wynn Macau Ltd. WYNMY Wynn Macau Ltd. ADS WYNN Wynn Resorts Ltd.
Here we can see that Wynn resorts has a distinct ticker just for their Macau operations, and Sands has one for China as well.
Picking through here for some “races” can let you see what is moving, and what was ‘left at the gate’.
So making a semi-random “race” of some tickers I recognize:
I don’t like the general look of that LVS line, upper left to lower right… but it has tradable “ripple” to it. Much more interesting is how that blue line for the WYNMY Wynn Macau is moving.
The general “thesis” here as a “takeaway” is “Buy what is selling to China” and “Chinese like to gamble”. So “Dig Here!” on those is where you will likely find the nugget…
FWIW, I looked at EGT and it’s a “flat roller” penny stock. You have to filter out that kind of stuff… “Editing Editing Editing”… it’s not just for books…
And, to save you the suspense, ATIG ia a penny stock too, trading on the Pink Sheets for 0.012 last trade. It’s easy to get gigantic percentage gains (or losses) when trading at fractional pennies…
It made a big jump on news in April (perhaps the report that it was going to actually have an accounting system and audits and everything, just like real companies) and has been “dribbling down” ever since.
A bit of checking shows the actual story that made the move was about being approved as an Indian Gaming provider:
ATIG Approved as Associate Member of the National Indian Gaming Association
Selects Blue Stone Strategy Group as Tribal Consultant
LAS VEGAS, NV, Apr 19, 2011 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX) — Atlantis Internet Group, Corp. (pinksheets:ATIG) has announced its approval as an Associate Member of the National Indian Gaming Association (NIGA). The company plans to launch its Tribal Gaming Network (a private gaming network offering Class III, Class II and Online games on Indian Lands nationwide) in the summer of 2011. A version of the network was approved for use in Indian Casinos by the National Indian Gaming Commission (NIGC). The network was designed to create new jobs and economic stimulus to Tribes by linking Indian Casinos nationwide offering Wide Area Progressive Games, Poker and a legal form of Intranet Gaming by using the UIGEA exemption for Tribes.
Understanding the need of Tribal Casinos is vital to supplying an economic shot in the arm to Indian Gaming which has also experienced the economic downturn over the last two years. With this in mind, the company has hired Blue Stone Strategy Group to give ATIG a better understanding of the needs of Tribal communities. Blue Stone Strategy Group is a leading Native American owned advisory group to Tribal leaders and decision makers. “Many Tribes have experienced a decline in Federal funding and are looking for creative ways to protect and diversify their economies. Our team of experts work with Tribal Nations to find strategic solutions to just about any challenge they may face,” said Jamie L. Fullmer, Chairman and CEO of Blue Stone Strategy Group. Blue Stone Group’s executives and advisors are Tribal leaders, both current and former, who continue to serve Indian communities throughout the United States. Learn more about Blue Stone Strategy Group at: http://www.bluestonestrategygroup.com
To promote and sell its Tribal Gaming Network, ATIG has assembled an impressive sales team with over 35 years experience in sales, service and licensing of Tribal Casinos nationwide. ATIG will be an exhibitor at the upcoming GIGSE gaming convention in San Francisco on May 17-19 and debut its Tribal Gaming Network. Major Commercial, Indian and Online operators will showcase their products. The convention will also feature several gaming commissions and legislators from across the Nation who will detail the changes in the US gaming market. A demo of some of the games on the network can be found at http://www.atlantisinternetgroup.com/tgn .
ATIG will continue its efforts to move up to OTCBB and management is very excited about the Company’s future. “The Company is adding some of the leading gaming companies in the World as partners on the Tribal Gaming Network offering new gaming products to the US,” stated Donald L. Bailey, President/CEO of Atlantis Internet Group, Corp.
OTCBB is Over The Counter Bulletin Board and one step above Pink Sheets (that is about as low as a stock can be in the markets and still trade). So “it’s an aspirational thing”…
Niche player in a narrow market pops on news. Just walks away… no, better yet, run away…
So that’s how I do this stuff. Find a moving sector. Look into what, sometimes a bit of why, always who and how much. Check out what’s a “story stock” and the POP is over (or mid bubble) and who is a Whale moving into new parts of the world. Filter the penny ante stuff, and pick a ride. Get to know that one (or two) so you don’t have to spend a lot of time in the future deciding (again…) but can just hop on WYNN or RCL or … at the drop of a ticker.
Sometimes find an interesting managed fund I didn’t know about (that BJK showed up on a “moving ETFS” screen here: http://www.barchart.com/etf/hotnot.php one day last week. Then you just start digging into what is “interesting”.
Right now it lists:
Top 10 ETFs All Top Performing ETFs Name Last Change Std Dev Links MSCI Indonesia Inves 32.76 +0.75 +2.41 DOW Jones-UBS Sugar 91.62 +3.44 +2.14 Utilities Alphadex 18.44 +0.25 +2.13 Vg Telecom Services 72.43 +1.17 +2.10 Vg Utilities ETF 72.90 +0.92 +2.09 Indonesia Index ETF 32.67 +0.69 +2.01 High Yield Equity 8.93 +0.12 +2.01 S&P Conservative All 29.48 +0.13 +2.01 SPDR Fund - Utilitie 33.88 +0.40 +1.96 DJ Transportation 100.19 +2.23 +1.96
A pretty broad mix. But it does point back at Indonesia (check that IDX ticker again) and sugar. Then that “transportation” is interesting. Dropping oil? Improving economy? Some things to check.
Bottom 10 ETFs All Bottom Performing ETFs Name Last Change Std Dev Links Barclays 0-5 Year 101.92 -0.45 -3.10 Barclays 1-3 Year 104.60 -0.35 -2.96 Ag Daily Long-Short 24.77 -0.51 -2.67 S&P National Muni 102.89 -0.62 -2.67 Barclays Mbs Bond 106.25 -0.46 -2.56 Long Enhanced S&P 9.93 -1.87 -2.47 Barclays Agency Bond 110.38 -0.33 -2.34 Factorshares 2X Gold 24.88 -1.27 -2.32 ViX Mid-Term Futures 58.96 -2.82 -2.23 S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term 48.11 -2.26 -2.21
Hmmm…. LOTS of bonds ( if you have not already gotten out, probably a good time to get out) along with a falling Volatility Index or VIX (happens as markets rise) and even the 2x leveraged Gold fund (but we already knew gold was dropping, and even have a handle on why and when… https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2011/06/29/gld-gold-an-interesting-chart/ )
Can it really be that easy?
Yup, it sure can. But you DO have to look, frequently, and “Dig Here!” to see the picture…
Start with “moving now” inspiration, move to “what’s inside that box?” and then on to “expand to more of the industry” then “filter aggressively for quality”, ending with “Is there a memorable theme?”
Sometimes you find a “junior stock” with a great story and honest prospects for changing the world. Rarely below $5, substantially never below $1, and a ‘diamond’ for sure. Usually you find the large mid-sized player with ability to dominate the small guys and a better more aggressive play than the largest or most stagnant player (who is often focused just on defending a dying or stagnant turf). Sometimes it IS that dominant player, smart enough to be both large, and dynamic. So “story” does matter, some, as a filter… after all the other filters… That WYNMY, for example. The “China Story”. That is actionable long term growth. Added to an “Indian Gaming Approved List”? More of a “one off” (and I have to wonder if someone is a member of some particular tribe or another…) unlikely to be repeated any time soon. Often you find a fund, like that BJK, which gives a nice exposure and with a day to day manager deciding to keep the trash out and ready to dump anything that starts turning sour. An easy way to get a nice mixed basket with someone watching it. (Still need to look a bit into who offers the ETF. Barclay’s? Good. “Joes ETF Emporium from Shanghai?” um… and need to check on how many shares typically trade. Under 1000 it will be hard to exit when things turn, at least with any decent price. Over 100,000? Not much to worry about. Then take a peek at the financial statements of the “contents”, are they making money or not? Does the manager choose “good goods” like WYNN, or “broken stocks” looking for a story? and you ought to run… )
And that’s how you do it.
Always a little “fresh” as what’s moving “now” changes every day, yet with some structure and discipline.
Repeat again the next day, or week.
Me? I’m staying with the cruise lines. I’ve traded them for years and know them. But I’ll likely add some of that WYNN in Macau, just for the entertainment value, if nothing else… and to start getting to “know” it as well.