OK, it’s not that often you hear about “Snow in Paducah” on the national news, so I figured “maybe it matters”…
WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS
000 wwus43 Kpah 290106 wswpah urgent – Winter Weather Message national Weather Service Paducah Ky 706pm CST Mon Nov 28 2011 , Winter Weather Advisory Until 12am CST tonight.
Moz086-100-107>110-114-290600- , O.new.kpah.ww.y.0014.111129t0106z-111129t0600z, Bollinger-wayne Mo-carter-ripley-butler-stoddard-new Madrid- including the Cities Of, Marble Hill, Piedmont, Van Buren.
Doniphan, Poplar Bluff, Bloomfield, New Madrid 706pm CST Mon Nov 28 2011 Paducah has Issued a Winter weather Advisory for Occasional Snow, Which is Until 12am CST tonight.
Areas of Moderate to Occasionally Heavy Wet Snow will Continue this Evening Across Much of SE Missouri, of a Marble Hill to New Madrid Line.
As Much As 1 to 3 in.
Of Slushy Snow will be Possible in the Advisory Area.
Reports of an Inch or Two of Snow Have Already Been reported near Ellsinore.
Yes, it’s fall in The South, and that always means…
Hang on, wait a minute, snow in fall? Not unheard of, but certainly not very warm… This sounds more like a New England fall than one from The South…
Is a nice video from Accuweather that talks about things like I-22 in Mississippi perhaps getting some snow, and I-40 in the south perhaps also having some snow problems. Oh, and somewhere Jackson Tennessee getting inches of snow too.
We are continuing to have that “old style” pattern from back in the ’50s where cold lenses of arctic air head south bringing cold and snow with them, while that displaces some warm air northward to replace it. Think of a Lava Lamp where a “blob” falling down cause other “blobs” to move up. So expect the “warmers” to make a big deal out of the (temporary) warmth in New England, but what matters is the very early snow in “The South”…
Soon enough that cold will move East and North and we’ll have reports of very cold storms there. The key bit, IMHO, is that these storms are delivering perfectly NORMAL snow, just a pattern we’ve not seen for a few decades. It will be played up as “climate chaos”, I’m sure; but it isn’t. It’s just the normal cold phase of the planet getting started.
Oddly, the wiki for Paducah Kentucky has an interesting weather / climate note in it:
Paducah has a humid subtropical climate, with an average annual temperature of 57.2°F (14°C). Average annual precipitation is 49.31 inches (125.25 centimeters), and average annual snowfall is 10.6 inches (26.92 centimeters).
Notable snowstorms are the Great Blizzard of 1978 and the Pre-Christmas 2004 snowstorm. Many snowstorms also hit the area during the very snowy winter of 2002-2003.
Paducah is also prone to ice storms. Two hit the area two weeks apart in February 2008. The crippling and catastrophic January 2009 Central Plains and Midwest ice storm also struck the area, and was by far, the most devastating.
So it’s a “mild subtropical” place that just happens to have had, post the 1998 peak of temperatures, a “Pre-Christmas 2004 snowstorm”, a “very snowy winter of 2002-2003″ and two ice storms in 2008. Oh and a ‘crippling and catastrophic” ice storm in 2009. Man that “Global Warming” is a cold hearted bitch…
Now it’s 2011 and we’re getting snow in November. More “Global Warming” like this and the place is likely to need ice skating concessions…
Wunderground reports the “monthly November”: for snow as (Min Max Average)
Snowdepth 0.0 in 0.0 in 0.0 in
Which is a bit vague as to if that is the historical average or this specific month average… but says that November 28th 2011 had (actual, average, record):
Snow T in – – ()
So we at a minimum had a ‘trace’, there is NO average and NO record… Doesn’t that make “trace” a new record? Or at least tying an old record? It also makes me wonder if we measure snow correctly if a load of wet slushy snow only gets counted as a trace since it melts when it sits in the bucket for a while…
Jackson Tenn. does show significant snow in the daily report for 28 Nov 2011:
1:45 PM 33.8 °F 23.9 °F 33.8 °F 100% 29.79 in 2.0 mi NNW 15.0 mph – 0.10 in Snow Light Snow
1:53 PM 34.0 °F 25.0 °F 32.0 °F 92% 29.79 in 1.8 mi NW 12.7 mph – 0.11 in Snow Light Snow
2:39 PM 33.8 °F 27.0 °F 32.0 °F 93% 29.79 in 0.5 mi West 8.1 mph – 0.03 in Fog , Snow Heavy Snow
2:53 PM 33.1 °F 26.9 °F 32.0 °F 96% 29.80 in 0.5 mi West 6.9 mph – 0.04 in Fog , Snow Heavy Snow
3:14 PM 33.8 °F 26.4 °F 32.0 °F 93% 29.80 in 0.2 mi West 9.2 mph – 0.01 in Fog , Snow Heavy Snow
Yet I find it odd that the “light snow” has 0.11 inches (the number preceding the description) while the “heavy snow” only has 0.03 inches, but hey, snow is snow /sarcoff>
Oddly, the daily summary only lists total precipitation and does not list any snow…
while the monthly summary for November lists:
Precipitation 2.13 in 0.26 in 0.00 in 7.61 in
Snowdepth – – – –
I’m left to presume that “1 to 3 inches” in a storm warning, if it comes down in small enough patches of “heavy snow” per hour, can become a ‘-‘ on standing in the records for a little while… Shall we say “Jackson was Paducah’ed”? meaning to have observed snow erased before it makes an embarrassing entry into the data record?
Or perhaps snow only counts if it ‘sticks’… So this must have been ‘a warm snow’… and we all know Global Warming causes “warm snow” ;-)
Besides, who you gonna believe? The Official Record, or your own uncalibrated uncertified unofficial eyes?
Well, I had my doubts about the Historical Record as it pertains to snow and precipitation prior to this little adventure in Southern Snow. Now I’m even more doubtful. Is it the Official Dogma that snow only “counts” under specific conditions of “sticking”? I suspect so. As I recall it, the stuff has to hang around in the snow gauge long enough for someone to observe it. Snow falling onto an above freezing gauge will melt, and become “precipitation” totals sans snow. But it will be official precipitation…
Somehow, I think this indicates we have a problem with our temperature records, and I think it is much more than a few tenths of a degree and vastly more than the imputed “global warming” amount. Certainly it indicates enough error in the recorded data to void any idea of betting the global economy on those data.
Also note that the Wunderground official low for the 28th was 33 F, so it never was cold enough for solid water. Nope, not at all. Never mind that each individual hourly record from 1:45 PM to 11:53 PM lists an event of “snow”. Nosirreee, not a single hourly air temperature was below 33 F. Now I’m not at all sure or clear on how you can have 10 hours straight of snow fall and always be above freezing, but I’m pretty sure it’s a neat trick, whatever it is.
Must be all that “warm snow”…
Just “for grins” I went back to take a look at the Paducah Ky hourly entries. They have an even higher air temperature with snow.:
Time (CST) Temp. Windchill Dew Point Humidity Pressure Visibility Wind Dir Wind Speed Gust Speed Precip Events Conditions 9:49 AM 37.4 °F 28.2 °F 35.6 °F 93% 29.92 in 2.0 mi North 16.1 mph - 0.01 in Snow Light Snow 9:53 AM 37.9 °F 29.2 °F 35.1 °F 89% 29.93 in 2.0 mi North 15.0 mph 21.9 mph 0.01 in Snow Light Snow 10:05 AM 37.4 °F 28.2 °F 35.6 °F 93% 29.91 in 5.0 mi North 16.1 mph 21.9 mph 0.01 in Rain Light Rain 10:38 AM 37.4 °F 27.5 °F 35.6 °F 93% 29.89 in 6.0 mi North 18.4 mph 24.2 mph 0.02 in Rain Light Rain 10:53 AM 37.9 °F 28.5 °F 35.1 °F 89% 29.89 in 3.0 mi North 17.3 mph 24.2 mph 0.02 in Snow Light Snow 11:02 AM 37.4 °F 27.5 °F 35.6 °F 93% 29.87 in 2.5 mi North 18.4 mph 24.2 mph 0.01 in Snow Light Snow 11:13 AM 39.2 °F 29.0 °F 35.6 °F 87% 29.84 in 4.0 mi North 21.9 mph 26.5 mph 0.01 in Rain Light Rain 11:53 AM 39.0 °F 29.6 °F 35.1 °F 86% 29.83 in 7.0 mi North 18.4 mph 28.8 mph 0.01 in Rain Light Rain 12:53 PM 37.9 °F 28.2 °F 35.1 °F 89% 29.77 in 3.0 mi North 18.4 mph 29.9 mph 0.05 in Snow Light Snow 1:05 PM 37.4 °F 27.2 °F 35.6 °F 93% 29.76 in 2.5 mi NNW 19.6 mph 31.1 mph N/A Snow Light Snow 1:15 PM 37.4 °F 27.8 °F 35.6 °F 93% 29.77 in 3.0 mi North 17.3 mph 31.1 mph 0.03 in Snow Light Snow
Yes, I know that cold frozen water can sink into warmer air when a cold front is on top of a warm front, but really, doesn’t that just scream that the ‘average air temperature’ doesn’t say much at all about the ‘heat flow’? If part of the air column is 32 F or below as frozen water and absorbing heat and the rest is 37-39 F? What IS the average temperature of that volume of space? What is the average heat content?
You simply can not average the air temperatures and know what is happening to heat.
I also find it rather odd that we start and end with 37.x where the x is either a 4 or a 9 (that is just SO screaming ‘artificial artifact’ and “unphysical”) but has a blip UP to 39.x for two measurements… in the middle of a snowstorm? OK, it did shift to rain for those two measurements, so maybe a gust of something warmer did blow in, but is that telling us anything about heat flow on the planet? Or just telling us that ‘weather happened’? And if it is just saying “weather happened”, then what does averaging a load of those say about heat flow? Precisely nothing. It just tells you what the average of the unaveragable weather was. It certainly has no predictive power.