Bastardi and WeatherBELL

I can’t find a link to anything on line, and there may not be one. On one of the financial channels, I THINK it was Fox Business but could have been CNBC, there was an interview with Joe Bastardi. He was “talking weather” (an important thing for a lot of traders and investors). Not making any political or non-weather points. Just doing his weather thing.

In the “happy talk” part of Q&A the interviewer asked something about expected cold from a blizzard on the way, and Joe went into one of his wonderful ‘this is how it works and why I am saying this’ expositions. Seems he’s expecting a LOAD of cold to come down toward Montana with temperatures, IIRC, like 30 F below normal at the same time there will be temps like 20 F above normal down toward the South East.

When these two collide, things are to get wild.

He said, roughly, “This is like the wild weather we got back in the 50’s and a 60’s, the last time we had a shift from a warm period, in the ’30s and ’40s, to a cold period.” and then went on to say things about how it was going to make a lot of interesting weather as we go into a long term cooling.

All I could find at the WetherBELL site was a report on the expected blizzard, not the discussion of the collision or the extra cold Montana. Then again, I’m rushed now and don’t have the time to search a lot. If anyone finds it, please post a link.

The blizzard report:

http://www.weatherbell.com/weather-news/new-mexico-through-the-southern-central-plains-prepares-for-possible-blizzard-conditions/

Winter weather looms over the southern Rockies, spreading through the southern and central Plains. A strong storm is leading to snow threats from northeast New Mexico into the Texas panhandle and through Kansas, prompting numerous Blizzard Warnings, Winter Storm Warnings, and Winter Weather Advisories.

Hit the link to see the weather maps. If you live in the North West to middle US Heartland, batten down the hatches and make sure the generator has fuel.

FWIW, I think another epic battle between hot and cold forces is also shaping up. That between the histrionic “Warmista Climate Scientists” and the much more pragmatic “It’s Gonna Get COLD!” Weathermen… oh, and the Meteorologists too ;-)

Did find a nice video of the weather report at Accuweather.com

The link I found is this one:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/breaking-weather-south-plains-blizzard/1670024770

but what looks the same to me is this link it gives if you click on the ‘share’ button:

http://bcove.me/1h636cj8

But still not finding the Joe comments… It may be in his upscale and priced services for folks like, oh, news networks ;-)

This was at mid-afternoon today, as I was running between the TV room and the laundry, so I only caught part of it in passing. I don’t know if that talk was the same blizzard as in the video (happening now) or if he was talking longer range prediction.

At this point we have a very clear A / B comparison shaping up.

Joe (and some other Meteorologists) saying COLD, and for a few years.
“Climate scientists” saying “Hot, Hotter, Hottest!!! PANIC!!!!”.

It will be pretty easy to see who has it right, and very hard to hide.
Weathermen are used to this. Climate guys, not so much. ;-)

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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8 Responses to Bastardi and WeatherBELL

  1. George says:

    I love Joe Bastardi. I HATE the subscription model at WeatherBell. I don’t mind paying a sub, mind you. I just think for the average “Joe Sixpack” their sub is too high ($16.99 per month or $160 per year) when all I want to see is Joe’s latest videos and not really anything else. I don’t want a detailed forecast service, I want a general idea of what is going on with the atmosphere and I trust his forecasting. I’d be willing to pay $20 to $40 a year for that.

  2. PhilJourdan says:

    @George – Too bad about the subscription. So far, in my area, we have wxrisk that is pretty good (and he explains the hits and misses) and is still free. So while many turn to the talking weathercasters on TV, I always go to his site when things get interesting. His track record beats theirs all the time.

  3. Pascvaks says:

    Colorado River “allowances” to the PRK (Peoples Republik of Kali’for’neia) need to be adjusted by London Bookies. Especiallly when PDO’s and everything else move hither and yon the way they do during multidecalal ossolations. I’m just a little surprised OBJuan didn’t build another Hoover Dam with that Trillion Dollar “Put-Everyone-Back-To-Work” loan we got from the Chinese. Think the Chinese told him he couldn’t; that it would upset World Climate too much what with the Three Gorges Superdam and all? I really feel sorry for folks in the Southwest with all these LaNina’s. Couldn’t we put 20K more folks to work and build a water pipeline from Canada to the Four Corners? (If I seem a little stupid lately, just chalk it up to my new Chinese generics; I wondered what they were going to do with all that contaminated brown sheetrock-wallboard they made;-(

  4. P.G. Sharrow says:

    Yes the “jailing” of Bastardi behind the Weatherbell paywall is a loss to us all. One of the best weather guessers and entertainers of this era. Weatherbell would be well served to let Joe show his stuff outside the wall to bring in business. pg

  5. R. de Haan says:

    I agree.
    Joe Bastardi and Joseph D’ Aleo have more or less jailed themselves behind a pay wall and we all miss their input.
    Especially for people outside the US who have no direct interest in US weather reports.
    I miss Bastardi’s Artic update he did when he worked for AccuWeather.

    Now they have their own company and probably lack the time for frequent reporting.

    Maybe we can ask Joe Bastardi to put up a copy of his interviews at Weatherbell public access area in front of the pay wall.

    In the mean time I wish them all the success in the world for their efforts and their business.

  6. George says:

    They seem to be offering a more professional content. That’s fine and they probably don’t want to compete with their customers for consumer content. But one thing I would pay some small amount for, say $20 a year, is two videos a week. One on Monday that says how the week is shaping up, and one on Thursday that gives the outlook over the weekend and maybe a special now and then if some event comes along or maybe a seasonal outlook once a quarter or something.

  7. George says:

    Bob Tisdale was looking for work recently, I thought he would make a good addition there in adding an ocean view to their longer range forecasting.

  8. E.M.Smith says:

    Found something interesting here:

    http://icecap.us/images/uploads/La_Nina_Reprise_Implications_on_Upcoming_Winter_Globally.pdf

    Has a ‘cool’ graphic in it… lots of blue ;-) Only the South East USA and Scandinavia-Russia are big warm spots

    Particularly like this ‘dig’ of sorts at the models:

    Weatherbell sees the impact of this return La Nina will be again global in nature and significant. Another harsh winter is expected in China and at least the first half of the winter in North America and Western Europe. More heavy snow will accompany the cold as our outlook will show next week

    With widespread cooling, WeatherBell Analytics Meteorologists Joe Bastardi and Joe D Aleo are predicting the global temperature, which has average near 0.2C above normal this year after being over 0.4C above normal last year, will drop to near -0.15C BELOW by March. This is similar to what we saw in 2008. This will mean the yearly cooling trend, off the warm year of 2010, which is underway now, will continue in 2012, which is liable to be the coolest year since the late 1990s.

    Computer modeling is now starting to see this. The JAMSTEC Frontier model captures the cooling for both hemispheres this December to February. Most of that southeast United States warmth would come in late winter.

    Then further down, after the graphics and some discussion of PDO / AMO and how they cause oceans to cool:

    We want to continue to demonstrate to the public that the cyclical events of the global climate and the associated extremes are tied into well established natural causes and importantly PREDICTABLE. As we have with the extreme events of this past year, we trust the forecast of this before the fact, rather than explaining after will make this point once again. The last AMO warm phase lasted about 20 years, so the return to the cold Atlantic and global cooling is likely to occur this decade even if this is another temporary change.

    Weatherbell has had a US winter outlook since June 1, which many are now mimicking and the latest NOAA forecast is remarkably similar too. A more detailed outlook will be out September 28, but we are available for worldwide ideas. Also as we have outlooks also for Europe and the far east where major impacts are forecast.

    The bottom line is a global temperature drop is coming to the coldest levels in at least several years, and there are winter implications that if you get the jump on, may be of benefit to you

    Didn’t find a date on it, but a couple of the charts have 1 Sept 2011 dates, and the line about a ‘more detailed’ one coming 28 Sept 2011 makes it ‘early Sept 2011’… So at least 3 months in advance prediction.

    It think these guys have some hidden tricks… The financial community bets with them, not with the “climate scientists”. Eventually that will show up in the politics… (Basically, the trading houses that ‘bet on’ the ‘Carbon Quatloos’ have lost bundles and the commodities guys are sticking with Bastardi and making money… Folks notice.)

    @All:

    Yeah, I’d like them to have more public ‘free’ presence too (maybe they can get an advertizement ridden corner for us non-Wall Street folks ;-) but as a start up, they will be mining the best ore first. As they grow and add staff, I’m sure things will ‘broaden’… at least, I hope they will…

  9. Mark says:

    Joe Bastardi has a huge “interest” in winter and cold/snow weather in the NYC area. His forecasts are all the same….big snow/cold/blizzards are coming soon to the Northeastern USA. This is comical, when one looks at the real long terms odds of heavy snow in the NYC area (a place at 40 latitude – lol). NYC “struggles” to average 25 inches of snow in the long term data. The rest is just hype, hype and more hype.
    The best article about the antics of the pro cold/snow weather forecasters I ever read was an editorial in the NY Times from a transplanted Midwesterner. It speaks volumes about how biased and pro cold/snow many Northeast weather forecasters are when it comes to snow in the Northeast, and, how funny it can be to watch by someone who knows what “real winter” is.
    Enjoy:

    The absurdity of winter weather hype along the
    Metropolitan East Coast of the United States

    Winter in the Western, Midwestern, and northern New England regions of the United States needs no headline to announce its arrival. Folks who live in these regions know how to prepare for the long and severe winters that come with living in a northerly or high altitude location. Each winter they meet the cold season with little fanfare or hype. If you live in the Upper Midwest in a place like Williston, North Dakota or Green Bay, Wisconsin…you don’t need the TV weatherman to tell you a cold front is coming when your walking down the street and the wind chill is – 55 F below zero. Folks living in the Intermountain West, Great Lakes, or New England … don’t need to be told what to do when it snows, you learn quick in places like Duluth, Minnesota or Bangor, ME where 90 –inches of the white stuff piles up in most winters.

    The meaning and reality of the word “winter”, is far different along the metropolitan East Coast of the United States. We shout from the rooftops when it’s 30 F in Central Park or two whole inches of snow falls in DC. From the Tri-State area (NYC/NJ/CT) southward….the Eastern Seaboard does not have a winter in the Midwestern or northern sense of the word – only a season of cool weather with sporadic snow that lasts a few months on average. Although there is the occasional respectable snowstorm and bouts of subfreezing weather…winters along the East Coast are short and mild compared from the Tri-State area south. Of course, once you get as far south as North Carolina on the East Coast…real winter generally just fades away amid the greening plams.

    However, each fall, around late October… the comical pump-up to winter begins in the I-95 states. Time and time again, East Coast weathercasters warn, “snow is not far off“ (really? it’s 60 F outside now) …or “snow has now been reported at Mount Washington, NH” (yea, that tends to happen at 7000 feet). By December the machine is in full swing – each broadcast the viewer is bombarded with “its sunny, but boy is it cold” (44 F cold? they would laugh at that in Duluth)…or the evening weathercaster announces “there is the threat of snow in the 8-day forecast” (as if we need to plan stock-up with supplies for a few inches of snow that will melt in two days),….or an oldie but a goodie is that file video of a snowstorm we had 7 years ago (or 17 years ago).

    By December, the terse, non-stop rhetoric, reaches an almost comical pitch: If there is no threat of snow in the big cities along the East Coast (which happens most often)….we are then even warned about the cold – as if that the next cold front coming down from Canada into the upper Midwest will end all life as we know it on the East Coast. Somehow though, … that 20 below zero temperature they show us up in Minnesota … becomes 15 F in Indiana….25 F in Ohio,… and finally 35 F in Maryland or Connecticut. All we really needed was an extra scarf or a heavier coat. In a few days, it’s 45 F again.

    Predictably, by mid winter, most folks in the I-95 states from Virginia to Connecticut …have long since stopped paying any attention to the evening weathercast beyond 48 hours. As each hyped bout of pathetic wintry weather comes and disappointingly departs…even the folks who love an occasional good snowstorm have lost interest. It can be a bit embarrassing when your local TV station in Baltimore or Long Island tells you in a frantic voice to get prepared for 2-inches of snow …when you see folks in Denver or Cleveland digging out from 2-feet of snow. The final chapter of this absurd East Coast tale comes to an end in mid March: local weathercasters (especially the ones who live for the 90-days of winter on the East Coast) grumble with comments like “we got off easy this year, wait till next year”. Year in, year out, it’s the same story.

    For the millions who live in the Atlantic States… the TV weatherman has been reduced to a silly personality with a warped sense of climatological averages. Winter weather is a point of comical conversation for East Coast residents – a joke, a myth, something playful in a serious world. Sure, there is the occasional valid warning that it may snow once in a while…but winter is fleeting along the Atlantic Coast of the United States south of Boston.

    It takes awhile for a relocated Midwesterner to understand that winter along the East Coast is really a state of mind…not a real season. A true winter landscape… with huge snow drifts…ice hanging from the eaves…bitter cold, and people bundled up in parkas and mittens, is really what we romance winter to be. In the end, despite the best attempts by the gods of media, marketing, and meteorology…. residents along the East Coast never really pay much attention to winter…only images of winter. The hype of winter on the East Coast is really about marketing and media.

    But oh… how they love to hype that fleeting winter from DC to the Connecticut suburbs of NYC….

    Writer Tim Hines grew up in Milwaukee, WI and relocated to New Haven, CT.

    [ I have seen no evidence what so ever that Joe Bastardi has an interest in ANYTHING other than accurate weather reporting. I find your statements marginal, at best, and they are directed “to the person”. Be advised that kind of behaviour is discouraged here. I’m going to let this one through, as it is your first comment here, but I suggest reading the “About” box up top. Future comments also need to avoid insult and “arguing to the person”. If you have a comment, please focus on what YOU believe or what YOU think. Insults will generally be snipped and / or simply sent to the Bit Bucket. OTOH, folks on the coast back East really have no idea what a Real Midwest Winter is… so I have to agree with that part… HOWEVER, to really see folks with ‘no clue’ it’s best to visit the west coast. Out here, 3 inches of rain is a ‘flood disaster’ and if you ever see a snowflake, folks are dumbfounded. One inch of rain on a road that his seen none for 9 months can make a slick oil/water emulsion and lead to chaos… Compared to us, the folks on the east coast live in a freezer with blizzards… -E.M.Smith]

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