Let The EU Eat Cake?

History has patterns. Patterns that repeat, and rhyme.

One of them is cold weather with crop failures.

Sometimes from excess rains, sometimes from too little.

From “first principles” folks often conclude that hotter means dryer. You get that a lot from the AGW folks as they predict desertification all over as we all become more like the Sahara. This is ‘exactly wrong’, as the Sahara becomes a lush green land during those times when temperatures are just a few degrees warmer than now. MORE heat drives the heat engine faster pulling more wet air further inland, more rains, more plants grow; then begins the feedback loop of more plants retaining more moisture in the soils and shading the ground. Less ground heating, so more water goes through repeated local recycle as transpiration from plant leaves recycles into rains close to the ground. (You find that in rain forests quite a bit).

A different take on “first principles” leads folks to conclude that colder means dryer. Simple physics, they say. Cold air can not hold as much water, so less rain. They proudly point to the Sahara. They also like to ignore the history of The Little Ice Age where the crop failures were due to too much rain in the cold.

The reality is that you can not reason from “first principles” as rain is a local phenomenon. It depends on some global scale factors, on global ocean currents and on global winds and temperatures; but just as much it depends on local land forms and the relative warmth of nearby water and land. This is seen every winter as “lake effect snow” in the USA just down wind of the cold Canadian air as it blows over the relatively warm Great Lakes. Until the lakes get cold enough to freeze over, this continues. Then when the water supply shuts off, so does the snow / rain excess that depended on it.

The same thing, in reverse, is seen on the West Coast of the USA where the mountains lift the air mass and squeeze out the rain. Beyond the mountains, down wind, is a desert. From Mexico all the way to Canada. (Yes, Canada has a desert. They are quite proud of it, as I learned when I was there talking with locals.) When more water comes ashore, more is left on the mountains; deserts not so much…

La Nina Cold Pattern

La Nina Cold Pattern

Original Image

So depending on where you are located you can get more rain or less rain. A hot Gulf Stream with cold arctic air and Europe gets excess rains and a Marie Antoinette Moment as French wheat fails under drenching rains. In South America a colder water flow off shore as the Antarctic waters flow along the coast of Chile means less water evaporating into the air. This means less rain in South America from the same generalized cooling that brings more rain to Europe. Basically, South America gets cold water first along with cold air and the “first principle” of cold carries less water dominates on the Chile side of the mountains. From last August we have this report on how La Niña influences Argentina:


La Niña threatens Brazil and Argentina crops says Oil World

South American grain and oilseed production may be in jeopardy from the formation of a La Niña weather pattern, which might curb rainfall in parts of Brazil and Argentina, Oil World said.

Dry weather since April in central Brazil may prevent seedlings from taking root when sowing starts in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goias states, the Hamburg-based researcher said in a report today. The weather pattern may bring rain to the area in December, too late for crops, it said.

“At the moment, sea-surface temperatures are near normal across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, but there are indications that anomalies are developing, creating La Niña conditions and probably reducing rainfall in some important oilseed- and grain- growing areas of South America,” Oil World said.

So in the popular news you will hear about the “heat” in Argentina, but not so much about the cold water that is really causing the crop failures. For that you need to go to financial and weather related news sources…

Europe gets cold air with ongoing relatively warm water (as it takes time for the Atlantic to cool) so the differential stays high: More rain from more temperature delta driving the heat engine. Argentina gets cold water providing dry air that can then stay warm as it flows over Argentina. Both have crop losses. One from excess rains, the other from lowered rains. Both caused by the turn to the cold side.

And now?

So what’s happening now? What brought on this posting?

History is rhyming again…

In Europe, wheat prices are rising during the present turn to the cold side.

What makes it a rhyme instead of a repeat? Now we have global grain trading.

French wheat prices don’t depend just on France, they depend on production in South America as well. So what’s happening in South America? Shortage of rain.


Wheat Futures Rise in Record Rally
By Rudy Ruitenberg – Jan 2, 2012 9:59 AM PT

Milling wheat futures rose for a 12th day in Paris, the longest rally for the most-active contract since the grain started trading in the French capital in 1999, amid concern dry weather will damage South American grain crops.

Parts of Argentina and south Brazil were forecast to have more dry and hot weather early this week, resulting in crop stress for corn and soybeans, AccuWeather Inc. said in a Dec. 30 report. Argentina is the world’s second-largest corn shipper after the U.S.

“The markets are again demonstrating firmness, still in a context of a very dry weather situation for the South American continent,” Agritel, a Paris-based farm adviser, wrote in a note today. “There’s little change expected in Argentina this week, with high temperatures and little or no precipitation.”

The article goes on to point at drought in Texas limiting winter wheat, and rising prices for rapeseed in Europe.

Of course, this is all couched in terms of the warmth over the land, not the cold in the waters… or the change of air flow that diverts the cold Canadian air from hitting warm gulf air over Texas. But we’ve seen this movie before. Back in the 1950s at the start of that cold cycle (after the hot ’30s and ’40s). From the wiki on drought:


Other severe drought years in the United States happened through the 1950s. These droughts began in the Southwestern United States, New Mexico and Texas during 1950 and 1951; the drought was widespread through the Central Plains, Midwest and certain Rocky Mountain States, particularly between the years 1953 and 1957, and by 1956 parts of central Nebraska reached a drought index of -7, three points below the extreme drought index. From 1950 to 1957, Texas experienced the most severe drought in recorded history. By the time the drought ended, 244 of Texas’ 254 counties had been declared federal disaster areas.

Expect to see drought in Texas cast as an artifact of global warming and ‘the worst ever’ when the reality is that it is the starting phase of a turn to the cold side and is no different from the last time this happened 60 years ago.

Later on, drought moves to the West Coast.

In the 1970s when things were cold, the Jet stream became more “loopy” too. We had cold and drought in California ( I was trying to learn to ski at Olympic Village at Squaw Valley, named as it was such a good resort the Olympic Games had been held there) and found myself trying to ski with patches of straw covering the dirt…

The big question I see is just this: How much more will this pattern continue and intensify?

Some of the best predictions we have are for a deep solar minimum for the next 20 to 30 years. That would mean a very “loopy” jet stream, extreme polar cold air, intensified circumpolar current hitting Drake Passage and sending ice cold water up the coast of South America.

For the lag time needed to cool the Atlantic, Europe ought to get excess rains and crop failure from such excess rains. South America ought to get a shortage of water and droughts. California and Texas ought to continue in water deficit as well, while the south east spends more time with rains off of the warm Gulf waters and where those collide with the “loops” of the jet stream, even stronger rains and storms.

Crop production will be challenged by both more dryness and more wet, depending on which side of the cold polar air you are on and upstream water temperatures. All just IMHO. (I’m no meteorologist and this particular bit of ‘look ahead’ would benefit greatly from someone who is actually educated and experienced at weather prediction. Anthony Watts or Joe D’Aleo for example, could undoubtedly make this much more accurate and much more correct. I think the ‘insight’ is sound, though, and that in broad terms it has gross predictive power for the economic trends.)

Volatility Manifestation

In many ways, this will manifest as volatility along the way. Emotional swings driving market swings. We see hints of this in a Reuters report:


EU wheat ends volatile 2011 on high note
Fri Dec 30, 2011 5:01pm GMT

By Marie Maitre

PARIS, Dec 30 (Reuters) – European wheat rose for an 11th straight session on Friday, ending on a high note a volatile year marked by adverse weather in Europe and America, a wave of Arab purchases fuelled by political unrest, the triumphant return of Russia on the grain export market and darkening economic prospects.

* On the Euronext exchange in Paris, the most traded contract, March 2012 milling wheat, added 1.25 euros, or 0.64 percent, to 195.50 euros a tonne, reaching its highest close since Sept. 21 after a rally of nearly 11 percent over the past 11 sessions.

* But the rally was not enough to make up for the heavy falls made between June and November. The January milling wheat finished the session at 202.75 euros a tonne compared with a closing level of 252.50 euros for front-month prices on the final trading day of 2010, implying a loss of nearly 25 percent.

* Volumes were again thin, prompting traders to prepare for increased volatility at the start of the new year, when market players return from their holidays.

In Conclusion

There will be efforts by the Warmistas to paint this as a result of “Climate Chaos” or “Warming causing drought”. That is simplistic and simply wrong. It is a result of the interplay of changed air flow with changed water flows and generally colder polar conditions slowly working their way further equatorward as they compete with a decades long warmed ocean (and eventually dominate as the sun stays sleepy). As that battle plays out, grain will stay volatile and that will ripple though meat prices (that largely depend on grains for feed).

In the longer term, presuming that the solar cycle unfolds as the best estimates predict, we’re looking at more volatile spikes up, and less stable intervals of low prices in steady production. At the peak of those spikes, options will be high priced with a volatility premium as well as the base price, that is time to sell. During the good times the volatility premium will fade along with grain prices, that is the time to buy. (Figuring out the timer period of the oscillation will be important. You don’t want to hold a wasting asset for 2 years waiting or the next spike to drive prices up, so timing the trade matters and watching charts gives that timing.)

Watching grain production and looking at pattern matches to prior history will be profitable for some, and will show what is really happening with the “30 year average of weather” that the Warmistas like to pretend is climate. ( It isn’t. Climate depends on latitude, longitude, proximity to water, and land form. Not the cyclical weather patterns that can run hundreds of years in cycle length.)

On the one hand it will be gratifying to see how accurate the prediction of more crop volatility plays out; in a generally declining production on both excess rains in Europe and drought in South America / Texas.

On the other hand, if Canada and Russia get significantly colder, as they ought, just who will be picking up the slack in grain production?

Australia? They have weather cycle related water issues as well. Brisbane north getting massive excess rains from the warm water around them. The rest of the country having more cyclical patterns as the cold water flows increase near them. I need to look more at how the Indian Ocean changes temperatures and how the historical monsoon patterns correlate with loopy / flat jet streams to say ( it is an area I’ve ignored. Yet another “Dig Here!”) What I remember of the ’60s was that there were many more failures of the monsoons in India and Asia. I didn’t pay much attention to Australia then, but I think it was more volatile. There is an inland lake that has a multi-decadal cycle of refilling (and a huge flock of birds fly in to nest). I need to dig up that name again and plot that flooding cycle to the PDO cycle / Indian Ocean cycles. It is possible that Australia might be able to pick up some of the slack. But it just isn’t large enough to do it all.


I’ve added a map of La Nina water / temperature patterns. It looks like most of Australia gets more rains. So expect more grain production in Australia to dampen a bit the lower production in South America. Still needs more digging, but it’s a start.

Trading Opportunities?

In the end, I think we’re looking at fewer ‘good years’ and more ‘bad years’ with the ‘bad’ being both drought and flood depending on your particular place relative to the jet streams and ocean currents.

As of right now, looking at the charts on the easily traded grain ETNs (that hold contracts, not actual grain):


They are generally showing the ‘wasting asset’ behaviour and long term decline of grain prices; a long slow slide from “upper left to lower right”, so it may be that the actual supply / demand issues are not sufficient to overcome that pressure (as the options contracts lose ‘time value’ heading toward expiration). It may well be that they only respond to the fast cycle news driven events and that they are just too fast to use on long cycle weather drift over years. I’ll need to spend a bit more time looking for better instruments, I suspect.

OTOH, we are in a long slow end of a warm productive phase. This will play out over decades. It may well be that the present price blips up are just the start of a longer term rise. First volatility, then directional change to higher. These tickers will bear watching, even while looking for a better way to trade the long cycle trends.

One thing is certain: It isn’t due to “warmth” and it isn’t “chaos”. It’s just the 1950s redux at this point… One can only hope it does not turn into a start of a new Little Ice Age and a renewed “Let Them Eat Cake” moment in Europe.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
This entry was posted in AGW and Weather News Events, Economics - Trading - and Money, Political Current Events and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

21 Responses to Let The EU Eat Cake?

  1. adolfogiurfa says:

    @E.M.: History is rhyming again… A new turn of the screw and the unpaid “bankers”, who dethroned the queen who naively wanted to help her people by giving them “cakes”, will have to go again to the streets to sell fabrics :-)

  2. kuhnkat says:

    Sorry for the OT, but, I am too lazy tonight to find the appropriate post to add this too. I believe you posted something similar not too long ago:


  3. E.M.Smith says:


    You just know that Adolfo is going to be loving that paper, being as it’s about space stuff and charged particles driving our climate. ;-)

    As it is about ocean changes and this article involved ocean changes, it looks to me like it is ‘on topic’ enough. Besides, I can’t remember what article would be better either ;-)

    If also fits under the “anything interesting enough is OK anywhere” rule…

    BUT, for future reference: I’m generally keeping an “open talk” page up at all times so that anything where you don’t know where to put it, can go there.


    Yes, we’re headed for a repeat of the same old choice. Clueless leaders thinking they are brilliant and entitled vs banksters and charlatans looking to rip off an haul away all the wealth they can. No space at the table for The Average Joe and Jane just asking how to get bread on the table…

  4. George says:

    What bothers me about the “Clueless leaders” is that their claim to power is that they are somehow smarter than the average person and can made decisions for them. This becomes less true with every passing year.

    In 1947 about 50% of the population had a high school education. That has now risen to over 90%.

    About 5% had a bachelors degree or better. That has now risen to about 25% of the population.

    The people are becoming better able to make their own decisions, not less so. The people are becoming better qualified to question the decisions of leaders today than ever before. Yesterday 40,000 new state laws went into effect across the US. In California it is now illegal to carry an UNCONCEALED firearm. They are supposedly doing this in order to protect us from ourselves yet they have produced no data that show that the open carrying of a firearm harms anyone in any way.

    The only data they produced was anecdotal evidence that it made some people feel “uncomfortable” when they saw someone carrying a firearm.

  5. E.M.Smith says:


    I would also add that there is a very high level of specialization in our “leaders” now. So much so that the poly-sci / legal education that dominates leaves no time / room for understanding the real world. The “leaders” are becoming more ‘dumb’ about how things work, just as they are taking more charge of it… That they make decisions based on who will donate the most or what sounds best in a sound bite doesn’t help…

  6. Æthelwold of Wessex says:

    @ George, I don’t know about the USA, but here in the UK, the increase in children leaving school with “better” qualifications & more university graduates has little to do with greater intelligence, more to do with decreasing rigour in the examination system and type of degree being taken.
    I don’t give equal weight to a 1st class degree in Media Studies to one in Mathematics!
    I don’t give equal weight to a current degree, at any level, compared to one in an identical subject, from the same university granted 20 years ago!
    As to our leaders’ specialisation, they’re all from the “humanities” side over here, with “PPE” being in top place. No scientific qualifications and all have diplomas in Pure and Applied Bullshitting!

  7. George says:

    the increase in children leaving school with “better” qualifications & more university graduates has little to do with greater intelligence

    Point is that the politicians are products of the same education so their relative education will track along with everyone else. The thing is that the difference in education level between governing and governed is shrinking.

    I didn’t mean to imply that people are overall better educated, I meant to imply that the difference in education level between the political class and those they govern is shrinking. The notion that the politicians “know better” and are somehow acting as benevolent overseers of things on behalf of an ignorant peasantry is obsolete.

  8. Æthelwold of Wessex says:

    Oh, also, they’ve never had a real job in their lives. A few have come up the greasy pole from the legal profession, but many have been in politics all their lives, from polical societies at University, through some filing & bag-carrying for an MP, to being parachuted into a “safe” seat in Parliament, then slithering their way onto the gravy train of patronisation as members of some committee or other and junior ministerial roles.
    This applies to both sides of the political spectrum in the UK, left & right!

  9. George says:

    Agreed that the “professional politician” is something we tried to avoid in this country but ended up happening anyway. The notion was for a citizen legislature, but that ended when we started doing things like providing pensions for politicians and having a full-time legislature. Thomas Jefferson (probably the last honest politician we ever had with the people’s money) said there was no need for a salary for Congress as they should be able to make do on graft alone. A recent book by Mr. Peter Schweizer (Throw Them All Out) would tend to validate that thought.

  10. E.M.Smith says:

    @Æthelwold of Wessex:

    Well, sorry to here it’s the same, more or less, there… Maybe I ought to find a senator who would like to hire someone to fetch coffee and provide technical translations… I could use a ‘safe’ seat or appointment ;-)

  11. Hillbilly33 says:

    Hi E.M . Lake Eyre is the place you’re looking for in Australia. Lake Eyre is 15m below sea level and is the terminal point for one of the world’s largest internally draining systems with flood waters taking weeks to drain down through the river systems from Queensland and Northern Australia.

    The Lake Eyre basin is roughly the size of Holland and has only filled to capacity 3 times in the last 150 years. It’s an astounding sight and there is literally a frenzy of birdlife breeding which I think is one of the natural wonders of the world

    Of course the desert also comes to life with a proliferation of plants and wildflowers which totally transform the normally arid interior. I’ll look forward to the results of any work you do on the flooding cycle in relation to the PDO/Indian Ocean cycles.

  12. adolfogiurfa says:

    @E.M.Smith (05:35:34) : Rather Misha Vukcevik will have a lot to say as he has published a paper on the issue.

  13. adolfogiurfa says:

    E.M.: Vukcevic´s paper:

    Click to access NorthAtlanticOscillations-I.pdf

    This for the “pebbles´universe” followers: Nothing moves without charges, “space”itself is defined by the separation of charges (voltage). No charge no you. The problem is that some brains have a few wrong connections which make their owners believe they exist independently from the “FORCE” :-)

  14. Pascvaks says:

    Ahhhhh.. “Backscratching” Psyc and PoliSci 101. According to lead authors in the field, the only difference between Cave Boys and Girls and their PhD/JD descendents is the ‘favors’ we extract from each other to do it. The root cause of human development was/is/ever will be backscratching! Led to all kinds of institutions – marriage, politics, medicine, law, farming, commerce, banking, etc.

    One reason Ron Paul is so popular this year, and millions are actually thinking of voting for the guy, is that he’s common clay, everyday dirt, simple, seemingly honest, willing to go BIG and not piecemeal at the issues, and they’ve lost faith in the establishment, the professional mob of lawyers and pickpockets. People really do need to vote for their neighbor this year for Congress; people they can trust to fight tooth and nail for them and NOT some damn Party Platform.

    The Lake Eyre basin is a beautiful Climometer; like Alpine Snow, the Amazon Rain Forest, the Sahara Desert, North Canadian/Siberian Permafrost, and North Atlantic/South Pole Sea Ice.

    Power Corrupts – don’t reelect any one but a Saint, and then ONLY ONCE. After Obama, anyone looks good to me; but I’d much prefer an American, a Vet, a successful independent business person, and someone who actually believes in a higher force than him/herself, I don’t think I can trust a Union Man/Woman, or a PhD Professor or Lawyer, or anyone who thinks we have a moral obligation to save the World from itself, or let the Chinese and Indians have it all.

  15. adolfogiurfa says:

    @George (06:09:04) :

    What really worths is “common sense”, the less common of senses. There are a lot of stories that tell how in a critical situation those better prepared to face it, are not those the best “qualified” by our current society standards.
    Do you remember how many highly qualified “scientists”made the Climate Scam?
    Knowledge is energy, information is a quantity, as a pie: If you divide it infinitely each one gets an infinitely small amount of it. Comprehension relates to level of being not to written papers, no matter how pompous or beautiful.
    You don´t know if what you learned is nothing but beautiful arranged lies.
    That is why THEY tell you that the world is incomprehensible, it is chaotic, thus THEY can do whatsoever they wish with you: from making believe you are free to sacrifice your life for such an imaginary “freedom”.
    He who needs less is freer.

  16. R. de Haan says:

    Europe suffered during the Little Ice Age from crop destroying weather events, volcanic eruptions and wars.
    But Europe also adapted.
    The introduction of the potato imported from South America eliminated the risk of crop destruction by the enemy who’s armies trampled and set fire to food crops. Potatoes growing in the ground were much more resistant to such attack.
    International trade and the wide spread introduction of storage facilities and food conservation methods eliminated famine to reoccur.

    Today’s quest from environmentalists who promote locally produced food crops will turn back the clock on the great developments of the past 350 years.

    Their views are not only wrong but dangerous as well.

    With their sick policies they prove once again protecting the environment is not their true objective. Instead they are waging war on humanity.

    The sooner the general public understands this the better.

    Private donations to environmental organizations however show that this is still not the case.

    Despite all the skeptic publications and blogs the Green Machine is still up and running.

  17. Pascvaks says:

    @R. de Haan –

    People ARE ‘The Most Fascinating’ subject ever created, devised, and/or evolved on the planet Earth. Some say it’s egotistical that they are that way, but I think it’s neat. Remember too, we are all here to teach and learn, we stay but for a while and we’re gone, when we leave we’re back to flapping our wings (instead of our mouths) and being nice to everyone. How boring is that?

  18. adolfogiurfa says:

    @R.de Haan: Despite all the skeptic publications and blogs the Green Machine is still up and running.
    Why is it so?. Is it only money or power, or is it ideology?
    My guess is the ideology behind it started as back as the French Revolution, establishing secularism,etc.etc.etc. to make possible the control of power/economics by a small elite.

  19. E.M.Smith says:


    Interesting point. As I was always raised to be self sufficient and self reliant and reality based ( make do with what you have, know how to make / do whatever is needed, expected to comprehend the world for myself) I am, it would seem a “difficult case” to manipulate…

    I know which of the things I was taught are true and correct as I validated them before accepting them. ( I have a rather complicated internal ‘flagging’ system where each new bit of information gets a ‘qualifier’ set for it: Suspect, provisional, probable, proven, fundamental truth, etc.) Nothing gets in as just accepted due to authority… Maybe that’s why some folks “have issues” with me ;-)


    I’ve watched Ron Paul go from “radical right wing nut” to “could be party candidate” over the last few years. HIS statements and views have not changed… the world is just catching up with him…

    @R. de Haan:

    IMHO, the “green movement” started out innocent enough. Some slightly clueless folks expressing their worries about stuff (some of which was silly, but some of which had validity).

    Now I think it has become a victim of it’s own success. What early on was just things like “Stop feeding lead to children” and “get carcinogens and mutagens out of the food supply” and “maybe keeping a tiger or two in the world is a good thing” mutated. Having accomplished the ‘reasonable bits’, it went on to the ‘silly stuff’. Not content just getting the smog out of L.A., we know have cars that become illegal to operate if just ONCE at start up a cylinder of fuel fails to ignite.


    I trace to to about 1973 or so and “Limits to Growth” by Meadows et. al. (promoted by The Club Of Rome). IMHO, that was the moment when authoritarian progressives realized they were “useful idiots” and that the Green Movement could be parasitized and used as a path to power. They have been “polishing their game” ever since. The end result being Agenda 21 and the IPCC.

    But folks are pretty smart (though often too lazy to notice until things are well along). America does not want a Green Fascist state and most folks find “Watermelon Greens” repugnant. As soon as it is widely understood that the benefits of more ‘restrictions’ ran out long ago and from here on out it is all noose and nothing else, they will finally say no… I think that “Global Warming” is likely going to be that “jump the shark” moment…


    Socialism and Progressivism have roots back to the French Revolution. (The first one, er, the well known one… er, the ‘let them eat cake’ one ;-)

    You see the Green Movement starting in Nazi Germany as a distinct form.

    In the 1970’s is, IMHO, when the socialists of the Nazi era (who didn’t just give up after W.W.II but just learned to hide better) figure out that “safety” was the root password to our legal system and “Green” was the best camouflage.

    In the ’80s they did some good, but also did most of their groundwork and infiltration / parasitizing. Then in the ’90s they started playing out the hand “for keeps”.

    The 2000s are engaged and how it ends is at this time unknown…

    Why? A bastard mix of hubris, greed, power lust, drive to dominance, … all the usual things…

  20. Pascvaks says:

    Isn’t it fascinating how ideas develope and survive and grow over time? Wars don’t seem to kill them very well either. Think, maybe, the Cold War was won by the West and lost by the West too? What is the attraction of socialism to the Western mind? Somewhere, somewhen, someone –I think– forged a connection between the ‘vision’ of Marx and the tenents of Judeo-Christian Good Samaritan ethics. It’s strange to see it, but there it seems to be. What’s really queer (the old definition of that word meaning ‘very strange indeed’) is that the greatest proponents of Socialism wouldnt be caught dead in a synagogue or a church and don’t subscribe to anything except Marx. Talk about a mystery of faith, now that really takes the cake. Bishops and Rabbis falling all over each other to Do Good, supporting, and being used by the Anti-G_ds, and lately being denied, tortured, and imprisoned by them too. How many times is a Jew or Christian supposed to turn the other cheek? And is it upper cheeks AND lower cheeks? Must be something in the water. Bet the EPA knows.

  21. E.M.Smith says:


    IMHO, the core attraction of socialism is that we are all raised in it. The family is a socialist organization. “From each according to his ability to each according to his needs.” The model family has Dad working, Mom tending the kids, and the kids getting a free ride. All nice and cozy.

    So at some core inner-child level, we long for those days when Dad did all the hard work and just ‘gave us stuff’… No Worries and someone else took care of your “human rights” of food, shelter, medical care, clothing, education, and all the thousand and one other “rights” that socialisms like to invent.

    We get told that we can elect a new Dad, and that Daddy Government will give us all those things we always had given to us for free… and as we KNOW it can be done (we have lived it at home) we see ‘no problem’.

    But there are problems….

    If there are not enough workers for the number of “children”, then Mom has to go to work too. Sometimes even the kids get put into forced child labor…

    When Dad is elected, the position is very attractive to Dominate Empire Building Dads who don’t care about the (foster) kids so much…

    Pretty sure everyone is hard at work so Dad and His Friends can have a great party…

    Add in that Children must do as the parent says, or face punishment, and much more starts to become clear as well. Loss of liberty is essential in such as system

    What “we want” is not as important as “what Dad wants”…

    Then we get the older kids who know how to work the system better getting more favors. The Bishops and Popes who know just how to get Dad to fork over some more goodies and maybe even be allowed to stay up late and be part of the party… if they just do a bit more of what Dad wants…

    In the end, we have a system that has a ‘natural appeal’ to more than 1/2 the people (as they have a more childlike set of aspirations, or don’t mind being the “good wife” providing wifely favors for a stipend) and we have a tendency to think WE won’t need to pay for Dad’s drinking problem…

    But we do…

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