CME and X Flare

Well, looks like we’ve got another Solar Flare and a CME headed “toward earth”.

May be worth watching for any spike in quakes or changes in volcanoes. I’d also watch for any sensitivities of our electronic world. Basically, if nature is giving us a ‘dry run’ for a “Big One”, we ought to watch it and see what can be detected and what clues it gives for our future… “For that day. -Joubert”

http://www.esa.int/SPECIALS/SSA/SEML3F7YBZG_0.html

Solar flare pushes plasma cloud toward Earth

5 March 2012
A large solar flare erupted from the Sun earlier today, launching a coronal mass ejection (CME) into space. This plasma ‘cloud’ is expected to pass Earth in 2 to 3 days, potentially causing increased nighttime auroras. No major effects on Earth are expected.

The solar flare occurred at about 05:05 CET today, and the resulting CME was detected by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) instrument on board the ESA/NASA Solar & Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission.

So I make that “2 to 3 days” from 5 March as being Real Soon Now ;-)

The solar flare was categorised by scientists as an ‘X-class’ flare; these are major events that can trigger planet-wide radio blackouts and long-lasting radiation storms.

If a CME is associated with a flare, the arrival of the CME at Earth can trigger a geomagnetic storm. For the CME detected this morning, which is expected to arrive around 7 or 8 March, no major geomagnetic impacts are expected due to the angle of approach of the cloud of plasma particles toward the Earth.

“We had another significant solar event early this morning. While an X-flare is considered ‘large,’ the geomagnetic impact is expected to be only minor to moderate, as the travelling CME is expected to mostly miss the Earth,” said Juha-Pekka Luntama, Head of Space Weather at ESA’s Space Situational Awareness programme office.

One wonders how much is “mostly”…

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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12 Responses to CME and X Flare

  1. j ferguson says:

    The volume of noise on the 40 meter ham band this am @ 1300Z was astonishing. S7-8 as best i can judge on my K2.

  2. Big Al says:

    It seams as if flare’s like this have been getting over hype from the people that should know better, like NASA. I wonder if this a policy to plant fear in the American people, just like global warming. There has been allot of reference to the Charrington event of 1859, but as a ham radio operator I’ve been watching the sun since 1957. I’ts only in the last several years that the 1859 event has been mentioned in the media. What I’ve been thinking is for some reason this administration has been trying to instill a fear of natural events that have been occurring since the dawn of time.

  3. adolfogiurfa says:

    Tomorrow at 3pm east, the beast hits us…

  4. Will it crash the DOW?

  5. Pascvaks says:

    @ Big Al:
    I have a feeling that it’s because they feel so impotent. They know if another well aimed and large enough event hits us just so we’re going to be “toast” in the electronic sense of the term. It’s like living in Texas and knowing that there’s going to be a really BIG drought some day, or in California and knowing that The BIG One will come whenever. Nothing you can do, but if you’re a well meaning Government Employee or Appointee or Elected Office Holder, you don’t want people to think you’re stupid and ‘don’t care’ about all the little people. Right?

    PS: Remember the Wizards of Oz who didn’t drain off the resevoirs before those BIG storms hit last year? Wonder what happened to them?

  6. E.M.Smith says:

    @Big Al:

    I think it’s just because in the days of Tube Radios the impact was a lousy reception night. In the world of laptops and sensitive semiconductors controlling all sorts of critical systems, the potential for damage is much larger.

    @S.P.:

    I assume the “it” is the flare? No, only people crash stock prices. Now, if a very bad flare causes a lot of damage, that could stampede folks into doing stupid things to stock prices…

    Personally, I expect “not much” to happen on this round. It will be larger “head on” one that causes “issues”…

    @Adolfo:

    Nice link!

    @Pascvaks:

    Or perhaps they want to feel more important so they “make the news” and then feel more valued…

  7. Sabretoothed says:

    Greece looks about to default now in hours, ready to meet the flare ;)

  8. Hi mr le Chiefio!

    I have some night reading if interested:
    http://hidethedecline.eu/pages/posts/climate-data-change—part-1-252.php

    Its a compilation of data changes made in climate change science. Its big, take care.

    K.R. Frank

  9. adolfogiurfa says:

    @Pascvaks: Nothing you can do…
    That is not true: Ancients knew how to discharge all that energy down to ground, so as it could not make any harm. See this controlled plasma discharge (watch the clouds above):

  10. adolfogiurfa says:

    Let us not forget that “protons” ARE NOT LITTLE PEBBLES but CHARGE and, also, HYDROGEN NUCLEII, which can form WATER in its reaction with ozone……

  11. j ferguson says:

    If we were to have another episode with sufficient enthusiasm to rival the 1859 Carrington Event, we might be in more trouble than hypothesized by the people who haven’t thought about it enough. for example. If the strength of the radiation was sufficient to fry IC chips AND the ubiquitous computer controlled fuel systems in cars and trucks are not adequately protected by Faraday cages as I suspect they are not, in addition to having electrical outages, we might find ourselves quickly out of food – no trucks, no locomotives.

    I suspect that military vehicles are protected, but don’t know.

    This particular threat possibility surfaced in the less massive media about a year ago. At that time, it seemed plausible to me and that the worst reasonably possible case could have very bad consequences. i was astonished that the usual Catastrophists didn’t pick it up until i thought about it some more and came to suspect that this threat would be hard to turn into a reason to try to modify everyone else’s way of life. More support for Ben Pile’s assertion that environmentalism is first political, then whatever else it might appear to be.

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