I was over at WUWT trying to keep up with the article flow. I found that all the topics were ‘new’, so I’ve missed a couple. But I was doggedly reading them all. (I’ve generally given up on reading all the comments. Some articles I’ll skip them all, others I’ll skim a bit. Ones I really care about I’ll read through. Why? Well, it would take all day, every day, to read all of it…)
In this article:
was an interesting comment:
March 15, 2012 at 6:17 am
From my understanding, the plumetting umbral magnetic field is what is so disconcerting about solar cycle 25. It’s normally averages around 3,000 gauss and it’s already fallen to below 2,000 and continues to fall at 70 gauss per year. When it falls below 1500 gauss, there is insufficient magnetic force to hold sunspots together, so they virtually disappear altogether.
It’s now projected that the umbral magnetic field is currently projected to fall below 1500 gauss towards the end of solar cycle 24 around 2018, which I assume is why solar cycle 25 is projected to be so weak.
If all this does happen, at least we’ll have the perfect opportunity to verify the Svensmark Effect on a global scale rather than in some small cloud chamber at CERN….
When at the Chicago conference, I sat in on two presentations about the solar changes. They came to similar conclusions about the date, but from different directions. (One doing Fourier Transforms on solar data, the other looking at changes of solar diameter). The general range was 2020 to 2040 for a ‘cold period’. Another presenter talked about traveling bands of temperature in the Pacific and how it took 18 years for an equatorial change to propagate up to the area of Alaska (and, one presumes, on into the Arctic).
Putting all that together, it looks to me like we can do some Calendar Marking.
2012 – Maya say “I told you so!” as it rains a lot.
2014 – Our present “flat, no warming” turns to “Drop, cold happening”.
2018 – The Sun Goes Blank.
2020 – It gets very cold.
2020 – 2040 the effects propagate toward the poles in the Pacific Ocean, slow continued deepening of cold.
2041 – Onward we have slow warming as the solar cycle kicks in again.
2060 – The warmth makes it up to Alaska and the Arctic.
Yes, it is projecting based on a few threads pulled together, but I think it’s decent projecting. If you are thinking of visiting Alaska or Siberia, I’d suggest getting that trip out of the way soon… In 2020, it would be better to be visiting Brazil… North Brazil, away from the snow of southern Brazil.
That’s my long range calendar prediction and expectations. We are presently almost at solar max for this cycle (yes MAX… if you can call what we have a ‘maximum’ anything) As the article notes: “The heliospheric current sheet tilt angle is currently at 67°. Solar maximum occurs when it reaches 74° – so a little bit further to go.” But not very much further. I’d put it about 2013 mid summer, so winter will be transitional.)
And folks wonder why I’m thinking about ways to move to Baja ;-)